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Posted: Today 11:20:25 AM EST
[#1]
Originally Posted By kpacman: I think everyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine also has a say in the matter. Zelensky may just decide to take a pass on Trumps proposed solution and continue on with increased European support. Originally Posted By stgdz: They won't make it without our support. FVP holds the most cards here, has momentum on the battlefield, is a ruthless psychotic dictator, doesn't care if another 1/4 million of his subjects die, or if war spreads world wide. How is that stopped without wide escalation unless FVP decides for some reason it's better for him and his future plans there is a pause right now.... |
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Posted: Today 11:20:48 AM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Russia has two months to liberate the occupied "new territories" - then the bargaining will begin In the shadow of the approaching American inauguration, a large-scale geopolitical game is unfolding, where every move can be decisive. Russia finds itself in front of a strategic window of opportunity that will last only two months - the critical period between November 2024 and January 2025. While Washington is immersed in pre-inauguration turbulence, the Russian military command is demonstrating impressive dynamics on the front. The liberation of strategically important cities and territories creates a powerful foundation for future negotiating positions. Every kilometer of liberated territory becomes a trump card in the upcoming diplomatic game. The outgoing administration is tied hand and foot, unable to make strategic decisions. This paralysis of power creates a unique opportunity for Russia to complete its tasks without the risk of immediate escalation from the West. The Ukrainian command, faced with the reality on the front, is forced to acknowledge the growing problems. The Pentagon, once radiating optimism, is now sinking into pessimistic assessments of Kyiv's ability to hold its ground. Success in this critical period could determine the outcome of the entire conflict and lay the foundation for a new geopolitical equilibrium. https://t.me/RDS_Official_channel/3541 Hedgehog. Day — the main news at this hour: 1⃣ Donald Trump won the US elections, at least that's what almost all American media outlets are writing. He himself has already announced his victory. Many world leaders have already congratulated him. 2⃣ Against the backdrop of Trump's victory, the Russian stock market has soared sharply, and the value of bitcoin has updated its historical maximum against the backdrop of the elections and has already amounted to $74.4 thousand dollars. The dollar itself has fallen slightly against the ruble and is now worth 97.37 rubles. 3⃣ North Korean soldiers in the Russian Federation have started watching a lot of porn because they did not have free access to the Internet in their homeland. 4⃣ The Supreme Court has upheld Igor Strelkov's sentence, and the cassation appeal has been dismissed, said Strelkov's wife Miroslava Reginskaya. In January of this year, Strelkov received four years in prison for calls for extremist activity. 5⃣ EU leaders will hold an emergency discussion at a summit in Budapest on November 7-8 about the EU's next steps after Trump's victory. https://t.me/ejdayru/13634 The quality of current Russian propaganda can be described in one word – crisis On the one hand, it is very good that the president awards the participants of the SVO, and the fighters themselves are invited to educational institutions for lectures. All this gradually creates a general impression of the presence of heroes, although the names and surnames of the overwhelming majority of individuals flash by like fleeting combat reports and are immediately erased from memory. And if you ask to name specific individuals, then, most likely, you will hear media patriotic figures – Daria Dugina and Vladlen Tatarsky. However, at the same time, two bright people symbolizing the fight against Ukraine – Igor Strelkov and Ivan Popov, turned out to be defendants in criminal cases, which damages the potential myth of the fight. On the other hand, the general narrative about the SVO sounds extremely unconvincing. It lacks a rationale for the need to fight for territories that are part of the Ukrainian state, and the abundant use of Soviet symbols causes contradictions of both cultural (toponymic dispute) and socio-economic (unfair distribution of benefits) nature. The most effective and resonant among people could be an appeal to the Russian past (the continuity of the history of the state and nation) and new meanings of the struggle for the unity of Russian territories (the battle against civilizational betrayal, the incarnation of Mazepinism and Banderaism). According to this concept, representatives of the indigenous peoples of Russia participating in the struggle strengthen their connection with the Russian people, share their values and symbols without renouncing their culture. The Russian narrative must play an integrating role, not only at the front, but also in the rear. The joint participation of Russians and other peoples of Russia in the Russian irredenta is an invaluable chance to strengthen the unity of the country, which is unlikely to present itself in the future. https://t.me/yaroslav_belousov/3078 So…the NK soldiers will just fap themselves to death? |
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Posted: Today 11:27:44 AM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By treelow: So…the NK soldiers will just fap themselves to death? UA should send drones with porn on USB sticks. 
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Posted: Today 11:41:28 AM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kpacman: I think everyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine also has a say in the matter. Zelensky may just decide to take a pass on Trumps proposed solution and continue on with increased European support. There won't be increased European support for a long time, if it even happens at all. |
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Posted: Today 11:45:10 AM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: There won't be increased European support for a long time, if it even happens at all. F**king Europe. They are going down the proverbial toilet, by their own hand. CMOS |
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Posted: Today 11:45:21 AM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: There won't be increased European support for a long time, if it even happens at all. |
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NC, USA
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Posted: Today 11:57:00 AM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: UA should send drones with porn on USB sticks. i'd dump truckloads of drugs and vodka for the Russians -- and porn for the N. Koreans attack at dawn 
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Posted: Today 12:07:11 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: 🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump's team is discussing a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, — WSJ 📍Trump's advisers recommend freezing the war — consolidating Russia's conquest of approximately 20% of Ukraine's territory. 📍Kyiv promises not to join NATO for at least 20 years. In return, the US will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons to deter a future Russian attack. 📍The front line will remain in place, and both sides will agree on a 1,200-kilometer demilitarized zone. 📍We do not send American men and women to maintain peace in Ukraine. And we don't pay for it. Let the Poles, the Germans, the British and the French do it, said one member of Trump's team.
what a joke. So deluded. Once again: Putin has NO incentive to accept anything less than what he's already demanded: ALL the annexed territories and full Ukrainian demilitarization (surrender). When are idiots in DC going to wake up? |
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Posted: Today 12:12:30 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: There won't be increased European support for a long time, if it even happens at all. If the US backed away I would bet that European countries would increase support quickly. Pure self-preservation is a powerful motivator, and not having Uncle Sugar to fall back on will rightly scare the crap out of them. |
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Posted: Today 12:16:29 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
Macron has not done what is necessary for Russia to 'not win.' And Putin is a weak leader anyway, without his party controlling the Assembly. |
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Posted: Today 12:22:52 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Trump has a mandate to avoid war, so imo threats of escalation from Trump will be seen purely as a bluff by FVP and easily called. On the flip side, I don't think Trump wants as his legacy "total collapse of Ukraine" because he totally hung them out to dry. The combination of Trump's election rhetoric on Ukraine (which I think a large portion was to cater to his base) plus the democrats shitsandwich handling of the war the past 3 years has put Trump in a weak negotiating position. The only wildcard, is if Putin is satisfied (for now) with the land he took in Ukraine, but his original goals have unequivocally not been met. Trump can always blame Ukraine on Biden. He can throw up his hands and say we can't throw good money after bad, talk up what a huge failure Biden was, and move on. But if his braggadocio about ending the conflict were to be held to his word, he would be forced to massively ramp up aid to Ukraine in order to force Putin to negotiate. Putin has the upper hand, and it's not close. Putin will not accept less than the four annexed oblasts. Those are written into Russia's constitution, and it would be treason for him to not push on to to complete that much of the conquest. |
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Posted: Today 12:29:30 PM EST
[#12]
IAF is buying F15EXs (F15IA). Won't get them until 2031
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/defense-ministry-signs-deal-to-procure-squadron-of-f-15ia-fighter-jets/ The Defense Ministry signed a deal yesterday to procure a squadron of F-15IA fighter jets — the Israeli variant of the advanced F-15EX. The $5.2 billion deal includes 25 F-15IA jets, produced by Boeing, with options for 25 more. The jets are being financed by US military aid to Israel. Under the deal, the jets will be supplied in batches of four to six a year, starting in 2031. The Defense Ministry says that the new fighter jets will be “equipped with cutting-edge weapon systems, including the integration of state-of-the-art Israeli technologies.” “The upgraded aircraft will feature enhanced range capabilities, increased payload capacity, and improved performance across various operational scenarios. These advantages will enable the Israeli Air Force to maintain its strategic superiority in addressing current and future challenges in the Middle East,” the ministry says. |
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Posted: Today 12:35:42 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: Also absolutely BEAHAHHAHAHHAH at all the simpletons who thought trump team would be different from what they had been saying. Absolutely laughing here. It is wild, both sides Dems and Reps say their person didn't mean that when they actually say what they are going to do......then act shocked when they do it. |
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Posted: Today 12:37:04 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kpacman: I think everyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine also has a say in the matter. Zelensky may just decide to take a pass on Trumps proposed solution and continue on with increased European support. They have 0 say in the matter......they can't get the stuff needed to fight. |
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Posted: Today 12:37:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#15]
Sources tell CNN former US envoy to Iran, Brian Hook, is expected to lead the transition team at the State Department. I asked him if he believes Donald Trump’s administration will, once again, pursue a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran given the rapprochement between Tehran and the Gulf countries: Watch. Listen. Learn. |
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Posted: Today 12:47:13 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: Also absolutely BEAHAHHAHAHHAH at all the simpletons who thought trump team would be different from what they had been saying. Absolutely laughing here. Save the laughter or tears until we hear something concrete from Trump. |
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Posted: Today 12:56:12 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By WoodHeat: If the US backed away I would bet that European countries would increase support quickly. Pure self-preservation is a powerful motivator, and not having Uncle Sugar to fall back on will rightly scare the crap out of them. Maybe but what could they send? Britain and Germany both sent about 50% of their tank inventories (about 100 tanks). Even if they sent the other 50% it would be...another 1-200 tanks. The US has sent about 0.015% of our tanks (but only after they could have made a difference). I would love to scare Europe straight but that will mean another 100K Ukrainian casualties. Anyway, I'm standing by to see what Trump decides. Hopefully stupid FVP pisses him off and Trump goes balls-deep on aid like he did with isis back in 2017 (FBHO was fucking around with isis watching them grow exponentially then Trump goes in, opens up the US military and isis gets curb-stomped) |
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Posted: Today 1:07:45 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbvTChZWwAM9Wib?format=jpg&name=large
That has to be staged. There's no way they've stationed the whole battery that close together. |
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Posted: Today 1:24:38 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By swede1986: That has to be staged. There's no way they've stationed the whole battery that close together. Likely a prewar exercise. This place was geolocated after minutes, no way they are this stupid. |
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USA
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Posted: Today 1:24:48 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Maybe but what could they send? Britain and Germany both sent about 50% of their tank inventories (about 100 tanks). Even if they sent the other 50% it would be...another 1-200 tanks. The US has sent about 0.015% of our tanks (but only after they could have made a difference). I would love to scare Europe straight but that will mean another 100K Ukrainian casualties. Anyway, I'm standing by to see what Trump decides. Hopefully stupid FVP pisses him off and Trump goes balls-deep on aid like he did with isis back in 2017 (FBHO was fucking around with isis watching them grow exponentially then Trump goes in, opens up the US military and isis gets curb-stomped) How scalable is modern arms production? Let's say there is political will in Europe to ramp up. Can they start mass-producing tanks like they churn out Renaults and VWs or is it purely artisanal process that only a few worker dynasties know how to do? |
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Posted: Today 1:38:34 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: How scalable is modern arms production? Let's say there is political will in Europe to ramp up. Can they start mass-producing tanks like they churn out Renaults and VWs or is it purely artisanal process that only a few worker dynasties know how to do? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Maybe but what could they send? Britain and Germany both sent about 50% of their tank inventories (about 100 tanks). Even if they sent the other 50% it would be...another 1-200 tanks. The US has sent about 0.015% of our tanks (but only after they could have made a difference). I would love to scare Europe straight but that will mean another 100K Ukrainian casualties. Anyway, I'm standing by to see what Trump decides. Hopefully stupid FVP pisses him off and Trump goes balls-deep on aid like he did with isis back in 2017 (FBHO was fucking around with isis watching them grow exponentially then Trump goes in, opens up the US military and isis gets curb-stomped) How scalable is modern arms production? Let's say there is political will in Europe to ramp up. Can they start mass-producing tanks like they churn out Renaults and VWs or is it purely artisanal process that only a few worker dynasties know how to do? Germany can't even make any new Leo hulls if they wanted to, the production line has been closed for over a decade and the staff is gone. All new-production hulls are made in Greece, and from what I gather that's a pretty artisanal process. The Leclerc-line hasn't been churning out any new hulls in a long-ass time either. I guess its status is pretty similar. |
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Posted: Today 1:48:51 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3:How scalable is modern arms production? Let's say there is political will in Europe to ramp up. Can they start mass-producing tanks like they churn out Renaults and VWs or is it purely artisanal process that only a few worker dynasties know how to do? The electronics are problematic. The chemistry is even worse. IIRC, Poland is the only place in the Europe or North America that makes TNT. I can't even believe it. Modern 'industrial' world has cut itself back so much, it's mind-boggling. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: Today 1:50:07 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: How scalable is modern arms production? Let's say there is political will in Europe to ramp up. Can they start mass-producing tanks like they churn out Renaults and VWs or is it purely artisanal process that only a few worker dynasties know how to do? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Maybe but what could they send? Britain and Germany both sent about 50% of their tank inventories (about 100 tanks). Even if they sent the other 50% it would be...another 1-200 tanks. The US has sent about 0.015% of our tanks (but only after they could have made a difference). I would love to scare Europe straight but that will mean another 100K Ukrainian casualties. Anyway, I'm standing by to see what Trump decides. Hopefully stupid FVP pisses him off and Trump goes balls-deep on aid like he did with isis back in 2017 (FBHO was fucking around with isis watching them grow exponentially then Trump goes in, opens up the US military and isis gets curb-stomped) How scalable is modern arms production? Let's say there is political will in Europe to ramp up. Can they start mass-producing tanks like they churn out Renaults and VWs or is it purely artisanal process that only a few worker dynasties know how to do? We deliver on current lines in 5-6 years. What do you think Europe will take? |
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Posted: Today 1:55:19 PM EST
[#24]
Might be fake, might not.
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MN, USA
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Posted: Today 1:55:23 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By swede1986: Germany can't even make any new Leo hulls if they wanted to, the production line has been closed for over a decade and the staff is gone. All new-production hulls are made in Greece, and from what I gather that's a pretty artisanal process. The Leclerc-line hasn't been churning out any new hulls in a long-ass time either. I guess its status is pretty similar. The Koreans are the only ones who can make tanks besides us at scale. |
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Posted: Today 2:06:16 PM EST
[#26]
orban is a cunt. |
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Posted: Today 2:10:48 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: So deluded. Once again: Putin has NO incentive to accept anything less than what he's already demanded: ALL the annexed territories and full Ukrainian demilitarization (surrender). When are idiots in DC going to wake up? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By HIPPO: 🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump's team is discussing a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, — WSJ 📍Trump's advisers recommend freezing the war — consolidating Russia's conquest of approximately 20% of Ukraine's territory. 📍Kyiv promises not to join NATO for at least 20 years. In return, the US will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons to deter a future Russian attack. 📍The front line will remain in place, and both sides will agree on a 1,200-kilometer demilitarized zone. 📍We do not send American men and women to maintain peace in Ukraine. And we don't pay for it. Let the Poles, the Germans, the British and the French do it, said one member of Trump's team.
what a joke. So deluded. Once again: Putin has NO incentive to accept anything less than what he's already demanded: ALL the annexed territories and full Ukrainian demilitarization (surrender). When are idiots in DC going to wake up? Yep. If they don't give him the 4 territories he'll simply grind away a few hundred thousand more casualties from each side until he has them. Trump is not going to escalate with Russia. Europe is no position to do anything that will have a material effect on the outcome. |
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Posted: Today 2:17:23 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: The Koreans are the only ones who Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By swede1986: Germany can't even make any new Leo hulls if they wanted to, the production line has been closed for over a decade and the staff is gone. All new-production hulls are made in Greece, and from what I gather that's a pretty artisanal process. The Leclerc-line hasn't been churning out any new hulls in a long-ass time either. I guess its status is pretty similar. The Koreans are the only ones who Fixed it. |
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USA
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Posted: Today 2:23:32 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By swede1986: Germany can't even make any new Leo hulls if they wanted to, the production line has been closed for over a decade and the staff is gone. All new-production hulls are made in Greece, and from what I gather that's a pretty artisanal process. The Leclerc-line hasn't been churning out any new hulls in a long-ass time either. I guess its status is pretty similar. And this is still the case three years into this war? Well, I should be able to make a living teaching them Russian. |
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Posted: Today 2:24:36 PM EST
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#30]
lmfao |
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WI, USA
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Posted: Today 2:24:56 PM EST
[#31]
It's too early to know exactly what steps Trump is actually going to take in regards to Ukraine, but it is interesting to speculate as to what Ukraine supporters in the current administration could do to change the situation and force Trump's hand.
Somehow escalate the possibility of direct U.S. intervention or something like that? It would probably never happen, but the Manchurian Incident at the outbreak of WW2 was instigated by low level Army officers and bureaucrats. |
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USA
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Posted: Today 2:26:45 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: They have 0 say in the matter......they can't get the stuff needed to fight. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By kpacman: I think everyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine also has a say in the matter. Zelensky may just decide to take a pass on Trumps proposed solution and continue on with increased European support. They have 0 say in the matter......they can't get the stuff needed to fight. What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? |
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Posted: Today 2:26:58 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: Yep. If they don't give him the 4 territories he'll simply grind away a few hundred thousand more casualties from each side until he has them. Trump is not going to escalate with Russia. Europe is no position to do anything that will have a material effect on the outcome. Trump doesn't want to escalate with Putin but he may have to. With the Xiden effort as a baseline, Trump can either do more or less. Not talking about bullshit "we want them to win" or "just want the war to stop" rhetoric but actual actions. Sanctions (even on oligarchs who have paid Hunter) and military aid or even intervention with NATO troops (yes I support this). It's the only "stick" Trump has. He will try the carrot (not the Steven Seagal type) first: No NATO membership, maybe some limitations on the UA...but that's kinda skimpy-Putin already has this now. Really the only thing that hasn't been tried yet is playing hard with Putin. |
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Posted: Today 2:30:11 PM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Might be fake, might not.
Faces covered, VERY generic uniforms with generic non-unit specific but recognizable patch, M16 used, berm covering the horizon to prevent geo-location... I'm leaning towards Russian propaganda op. |
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Posted: Today 2:32:24 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: We deliver on current lines in 5-6 years. What do you think Europe will take? Never |
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Posted: Today 2:39:10 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Faces covered, VERY generic uniforms with generic non-unit specific but recognizable patch, M16 used, berm covering the horizon to prevent geo-location... I'm leaning towards Russian propaganda op. |
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Posted: Today 2:40:42 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: Yep. If they don't give him the 4 territories he'll simply grind away a few hundred thousand more casualties from each side until he has them. Trump is not going to escalate with Russia. Europe is no position to do anything that will have a material effect on the outcome. |
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Posted: Today 2:44:45 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By swede1986: Germany can't even make any new Leo hulls if they wanted to, the production line has been closed for over a decade and the staff is gone. All new-production hulls are made in Greece, and from what I gather that's a pretty artisanal process. The Leclerc-line hasn't been churning out any new hulls in a long-ass time either. I guess its status is pretty similar. Hulls are the easiest major part of an AFV to make. They aren’t really a concern. |
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USA
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Posted: Today 2:55:49 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: Originally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By kpacman: I think everyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine also has a say in the matter. Zelensky may just decide to take a pass on Trumps proposed solution and continue on with increased European support. They have 0 say in the matter......they can't get the stuff needed to fight. What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? Zelensky has stated that he hasn't received aid that has been funded as quickly as he would have expected. It is unclear to me how much of this is US vs Europe. Let's assume he's referring to US as well - one possibility is that the current administration was sheparding resources knowing they wouldn't likely get another bill passed, and to make the resources last as long as possible - even bridging into next year (seems reasonable). The unfortunate reality is that the democrates at this point don't really have a lot of incentives to push resources to the region as hard as possible - especially as Trump is trying to make a deal (they want that deal to look as bad as possible, similar to the Republicans dragging the passage of the aid bill last year/Spring). I hope I'm wrong and all are doing things for the best interest of country/world, but Ukraine just isn't in a good spot at this point. |
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USA
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Posted: Today 3:07:49 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: Zelensky has stated that he hasn't received aid that has been funded as quickly as he would have expected. It is unclear to me how much of this is US vs Europe. Let's assume he's referring to US as well - one possibility is that the current administration was sheparding resources knowing they wouldn't likely get another bill passed, and to make the resources last as long as possible - even bridging into next year (seems reasonable). The unfortunate reality is that the democrates at this point don't really have a lot of incentives to push resources to the region as hard as possible - especially as Trump is trying to make a deal (they want that deal to look as bad as possible, similar to the Republicans dragging the passage of the aid bill last year/Spring). I hope I'm wrong and all are doing things for the best interest of country/world, but Ukraine just isn't in a good spot at this point. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: Originally Posted By Tiberius: Originally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By kpacman: I think everyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine also has a say in the matter. Zelensky may just decide to take a pass on Trumps proposed solution and continue on with increased European support. They have 0 say in the matter......they can't get the stuff needed to fight. What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? Zelensky has stated that he hasn't received aid that has been funded as quickly as he would have expected. It is unclear to me how much of this is US vs Europe. Let's assume he's referring to US as well - one possibility is that the current administration was sheparding resources knowing they wouldn't likely get another bill passed, and to make the resources last as long as possible - even bridging into next year (seems reasonable). The unfortunate reality is that the democrates at this point don't really have a lot of incentives to push resources to the region as hard as possible - especially as Trump is trying to make a deal (they want that deal to look as bad as possible, similar to the Republicans dragging the passage of the aid bill last year/Spring). I hope I'm wrong and all are doing things for the best interest of country/world, but Ukraine just isn't in a good spot at this point. They are drip-feeding them enough aid to survive, but not to win. It’s despicable, yet again the Dems are betraying a potential friend. Pence was right, we should have sent them everything they needed at the outset, they probably would have won them. |
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Posted: Today 3:08:29 PM EST
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: Originally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By kpacman: I think everyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine also has a say in the matter. Zelensky may just decide to take a pass on Trumps proposed solution and continue on with increased European support. They have 0 say in the matter......they can't get the stuff needed to fight. What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? This is where things can get a lot uglier. Ukraine has refrained from attacking Russian energy exports. If Europe has nothing left to give, and Trump won't give anything, Ukraine has nothing left to lose, and no reason to abide by old restrictions of 'don't touch those exports.' If Ukraine launched on terminals in the Baltic and on Novorossiysk, it would disrupt a couple million barrels per day. That would be enough to actually affect the global oil markets, putting a hurt on Europe and a bigger one on Russia. And drawing Kazakhstan in, as most Kazakh oil (#11 exporter globally) goes through the transcaspian pipeline to Novorossiysk. But if Ukraine has nothing left to lose, if they are facing an end of external military support, I would expect them to play that card. They might also threaten to withdraw from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, but that's a really last-ditch move. I would also expect them to not announce such a move unless they had already made progress on weapon development. If I were Zelensky, I'd already have a secret enrichment facility nobody knows about. Putin uses nuclear threats against Europe and others, but a country with its back to the wall is more dangerous than a country engaged in a war of choice. Hrim 2 could carry a nuclear warhead, if they had the technology. How much uglier can the Ukraine war get? ALL the uglier. |
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Posted: Today 3:09:51 PM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? Then the UAF would surely lose the war outright. CMOS 
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USA
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Posted: Today 3:18:05 PM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: Zelensky has stated that he hasn't received aid that has been funded as quickly as he would have expected. It is unclear to me how much of this is US vs Europe. Let's assume he's referring to US as well - one possibility is that the current administration was sheparding resources knowing they wouldn't likely get another bill passed, and to make the resources last as long as possible - even bridging into next year (seems reasonable). The unfortunate reality is that the democrates at this point don't really have a lot of incentives to push resources to the region as hard as possible - especially as Trump is trying to make a deal (they want that deal to look as bad as possible, similar to the Republicans dragging the passage of the aid bill last year/Spring). I hope I'm wrong and all are doing things for the best interest of country/world, but Ukraine just isn't in a good spot at this point. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: Originally Posted By Tiberius: Originally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By kpacman: I think everyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine also has a say in the matter. Zelensky may just decide to take a pass on Trumps proposed solution and continue on with increased European support. They have 0 say in the matter......they can't get the stuff needed to fight. What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? Zelensky has stated that he hasn't received aid that has been funded as quickly as he would have expected. It is unclear to me how much of this is US vs Europe. Let's assume he's referring to US as well - one possibility is that the current administration was sheparding resources knowing they wouldn't likely get another bill passed, and to make the resources last as long as possible - even bridging into next year (seems reasonable). The unfortunate reality is that the democrates at this point don't really have a lot of incentives to push resources to the region as hard as possible - especially as Trump is trying to make a deal (they want that deal to look as bad as possible, similar to the Republicans dragging the passage of the aid bill last year/Spring). I hope I'm wrong and all are doing things for the best interest of country/world, but Ukraine just isn't in a good spot at this point. I post this and a headline pops up on my phone from Ukraine Latest podcast that Whitehouse is going to try to send $6 billion in aid before end of year - to spend it all before Trump gets in office so he can't stop it. That is probably the best thing they could do at this point but it might be logistically difficult to impliment in an effective manner. |
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Posted: Today 3:25:46 PM EST
[#44]
Trump should just make a deal with Poland and let them off the chain.
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MN, USA
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Posted: Today 3:36:07 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? Oh I don't know, why don't you look at how the conquered territories are doing under the Russian boot. |
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Posted: Today 3:36:37 PM EST
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#46]
lol. From the Moscow Times quoting the WSJ.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/07/trump-advisers-push-to-freeze-war-in-ukraine-pause-kyivs-bid-to-join-nato-wsj-a86935 When an article uses words like "reportedly" or "allegedly" with no named sources, it's not a reliable source, only used to feed peoples confirmation bias. Another proposal reportedly involves freezing battle lines and withholding U.S. arms from Ukraine unless it enters peace talks with Russia. This plan was allegedly drafted by two former chiefs of the National Security Council during Trump’s first term, Reuters reported in June. The only proposed approach that avoids a “major win” for Russia reportedly comes from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a potential candidate to lead the Pentagon, though details were not provided. Context is everything. Allegedly.
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Posted: Today 3:47:06 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: I post this and a headline pops up on my phone from Ukraine Latest podcast that Whitehouse is going to try to send $6 billion in aid before end of year - to spend it all before Trump gets in office so he can't stop it. That is probably the best thing they could do at this point but it might be logistically difficult to impliment in an effective manner. Why are they trickling in the aid again? |
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Posted: Today 3:48:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#48]
Link to article |
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Posted: Today 3:51:06 PM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: This is where things can get a lot uglier. Ukraine has refrained from attacking Russian energy exports. If Europe has nothing left to give, and Trump won't give anything, Ukraine has nothing left to lose, and no reason to abide by old restrictions of 'don't touch those exports.' If Ukraine launched on terminals in the Baltic and on Novorossiysk, it would disrupt a couple million barrels per day. That would be enough to actually affect the global oil markets, putting a hurt on Europe and a bigger one on Russia. And drawing Kazakhstan in, as most Kazakh oil (#11 exporter globally) goes through the transcaspian pipeline to Novorossiysk. But if Ukraine has nothing left to lose, if they are facing an end of external military support, I would expect them to play that card. They might also threaten to withdraw from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, but that's a really last-ditch move. I would also expect them to not announce such a move unless they had already made progress on weapon development. If I were Zelensky, I'd already have a secret enrichment facility nobody knows about. Putin uses nuclear threats against Europe and others, but a country with its back to the wall is more dangerous than a country engaged in a war of choice. Hrim 2 could carry a nuclear warhead, if they had the technology. How much uglier can the Ukraine war get? ALL the uglier. Are we assuming that Trump will keep the same ROE for Ukraine? "Do not touch anything that will actually harm Russia"...Because Trump doesn't want to negatively affect Russian oil exports? I guess it's possible if Trump is a fucking coward afraid of Putin and/or corrupted by Russian $$$ like Xiden. Is this the assumption we are operating under now? |
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Posted: Today 3:54:03 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
Strategic ambiguity is back bitches. |
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