Mass hysteria caused by the media.

Epidemiologists are just humans.  Not gods.  Humans are incompetent.  Humans have agendas.  Humans are corrupt.  Being an epidemiologist does not exclude you from being human.

I certainly don't think I have the tiger by the tail... I'm very open to actual info on how I'm looking at this wrong, but so far nearly all I get is people making ad hominim attacks, posting gifs, and being snarky.  Maybe GD was the wrong place to look.  

I do think you're right, nobody TRULY knows.   The numbers that I think will be most useful won't be out for at least another year, those are the numbers on TOTAL flu/pneumonia deaths for the year, and how they compare to an average year.

There’s no evidence of an infection rate that high anywhere outside of small Italian towns where, surprise, Wuhan killed boatloads of people.  It’s just not possible that that many people have already been infected.  And no evidence of a sustained case fatality rate of less than 1%, or even as low as 1%.  Even Germany and South Korea are verging on CFRs of 2%.

The area of Northern Italy where it is bad is one of the most densely populated areas of Europe:




Plus Italy, Spain and France have lots of this:

They should go watch Tucker Carlson who addresses that exact issue and be educated.

When the data is on Global Warming or gun violence, GD calls BS and says the "experts" are full of shit and have an agenda, which is true. For some reason, half of GD is eating up everything the "experts" are saying about this virus. The worse the prediction, the more the doomers believe it as absolute truth. When you point out that the real world data isn't living up to the predictions, you're a "flubro."

Wait two weeks.

Wherever you are right now is two weeks behind NYC.  Which was two weeks behind Spain, which is two weeks behind Italy.
Which is two week behind China’s official numbers and another two weeks behind their unreported numbers.

All the models have been wrong. Every single one of them

No need to thank him, I'm sure it's a public service.

If you saw a retard walking into the street, you wouldn't direct him away from traffic
just for a pat on the back.  A 3-legged dog with it's head up a bull's ass. You'd pull it out.

Figuratively speaking, most of the "flu-bros" are just trying to help retards stay away from traffic.

Going by your pathetic diatribe, you must buy into "man-made global warming", so you've rid yourself
of your car, donated to Gore, don't eat meat, live in a 1000' sqr house ... just how committed are you ?

Yep. A week ago they were saying 100,000 - 200,000 on the low side with aggressive social distancing.

I'm not a flu bro but something stinks.

And politics

the world health organization claimed a cfr of 3%. which is horrifying compared to flu's fatality risk. everyone must be dying. . . right?!

except they're not. germany's heinsberg reports a cfr of 0.37%, similar to flu's 0.1%. singapore verified these claim, approximately 0.37%. then we have iceland, who also reports in the 0.3% range, except they don't care about social distancing. more interestingly, these countries are much more centralized with much more traffic. so you would see faster propagation with more connections, but this is not the case. nor is there any correlation with high density or low density cities. for example, new york has reported very high rates even with social distancing. so. . . i'm not sure what the distancing has to do with the disease, i thought it was a game everyone was playing - like monopoly at mcdonalds/safeway. it's fun if you're interested, but nobody really cares.

germany's prjs are mostly communications. but stanford and ucsf have both published that it's expected to be 0.2% or 0.1%. in fact, modulating infection rates does little to the curve.

cfr = case fatality risk.
scfr = symptomatic case fatality risk
ifr = infection fatality risk

so the reality is people are dying. not from corona virus, but just in every day life. it might be actual flu. regardless, sequencing the virus is somewhat difficult. a prj published a few days ago said that the old antibody assay based on igG was liable to give false positives - so it is mostly hysteria. whereas igA was for more reliable. assays are not absolute. but nobody really seems to care or they seem unable to read these papers. which is baffling, all prjs are free and online (the biology education too via stanford.edu or kahn academy). many of which are posted here. in fact, none of the prjs have stated that coronavirus is a problem. so i assumed corona virus was actually a fashion thing like bell bottoms or handkerchiefs.
as of march 18th, the antibody study says that the igg false positives are likely tagging MERS as the doppleganger to covid. i mean they're all kind of flu so i guess it kind of makes sense (specifically, MERS).
the media also claims the spread is exponential! oh noes! but -x^2 is negative - which means it's just a glorified bell curve. science is such that unless there's evidence that something is happening (we call it p), then we have to assume nothing is happening. all of these are largish n. germany was n=500 and sinagpore was n=1628.
the japanese cruise was much the same. the media used the raw estimate to count the amount of people died as the hysteria button. but when corrected for age and condition, it was actually tamer than the flu. those people were likely going to expire in a stiff breeze more than a virus. but don't let that stop the hysteria.
my word, isn't absolute either. it could be that i missed something critical. but all the prjs i've seen have said it's nothing. only the media has said it's something.
also, i tried checking the communications of germany's virology research. it's all in german with no translations i could find. and google translate isn't really something to trust for something this important, but all news sites that translate and paraphrase are consistent with the translation: nothing is happening.

Big crowds out for Mother’s Day yesterday.

Will there be a huge spike due to the protests?

welcome to the party pal


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Dude.

No one cares about corona now.

The pandemic of racism is what's really killing everyone!

Yes!  You cucks keep putting on masks, social distancing and allowing as much of your day to day life to be controlled by your state & local .gov....while we run out and protest 24/7, break & burn shit and focus on the real problem...racism!   Just keep looking at that shiny covid-19 thing while we "fundamentally transform America" (remember that one?).

No.

Covid is so last week. It's not fashionable any more.

Some of us have been saying this since Feb.

LOL the doomtards sure are angry the riots took their thunder

word.

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Hey, my thread is resurrected!

Following up... like I said, my state normally loses 1200 to flu/pneumonia during a year.  1800 during an epidemic year.

We're currently up to ~140 COVID deaths.  So we'd still need >10x as many just to equal a bad flu year.

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we have

Caught presstitute lying and hyping story

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I know people who haven't been inside other peoples homes since literally March
Restaurants are just now starting to re-open to sit-down customers, and I've had some local people telling me the last couple of days that they'll refuse to go out to restaurants or other places because they think its still too soon to re-open.
That level of social isolation is going to have some long lasting effects on some members of society.
I think that seeing some people wearing face masks will continue to be common for some people long after the governments lift that requirement on the general population.