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USA
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Posted: 8/27/2024 10:20:27 PM EST
[#1]
It is really going to suck in Ukraine this winter. Like someone is trying to take out critical infrastructure before winter time.
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Posted: 8/27/2024 10:21:09 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now I don’t think Moscow ever acted in good faith regarding peace negotiations and yes I’m aware of accusations and claims about Boris Johnson etc. Anyway, with NATO membership talk {despite many members opposed} about Ukraine and what I suspect is China-Iran-Russia hope of cratering, dividing and stressing the US, NATO and “the west” in hopes of establishing as they call it “a multipolar world” this conflict will drag on and at best return to a occasional shelling, UW grey war like the Korean DMZ and Ukraine pre 2014. There will be no lasting peace in this decade. We’ll see what Trump has in mind but even without future US support I think the war would change but continue. Russia likely still hopes to acquire Odessa if that takes a decade from their point of view. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I don’t believe Ukraine can collapse Russia cause an internal revolt or that sanctions or Trump opening up US oil will stop this war from continuing. Given both countries are exhausted and have comparative manpower issues it’s likely going to lean into drones, missiles and artillery more and more https://kyivindependent.com/drone-swarms-play-key-role-in-ukraines-kursk-incursion-times-reports/  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-dismissing-zelenskiys-talk-plan-end-war-says-russia-will-keep-fighting-2024-08-28/    Economist has a similar article today but other news in the last month claims Russia’s economy is overheating or expected to slow towards the end of the year https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-economy-shows-solid-growth-despite-ukraine-war-sanctions-2024-08-28/  https://www.voanews.com/amp/analysts-china-russia-financial-cooperation-raises-red-flag/7755202.html   
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Posted: 8/27/2024 10:36:42 PM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: I'm not worked up, but I am tired of your bullshit. Pointing out that those proposals were not made in good faith is 100% on topic. You are right that is the Russian government narrative, that's a pretty irrelevant point though since the proposal wasn't made in good faith. Add it to the pile along with bio-engineered nazi super soldiers and NATO expansion. You're new here. If you weren't you'd probably know that I've been talking about Trump being an anti-gun liberal since 2015, well before the current Russian invasion. So yet another swing and another miss. Still trying to have reasoned discussion with a troll?  |
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Posted: 8/27/2024 10:46:32 PM EST
[#4]
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Posted: 8/27/2024 11:02:58 PM EST
[#5]
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Posted: 8/28/2024 5:11:07 AM EST
[#6]
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Posted: 8/28/2024 5:50:14 AM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SnoGoRider: It is really going to suck in Ukraine this winter. Like someone is trying to take out critical infrastructure before winter time. Nonsense, there are still a ton of children’s hospitals Russia hasn’t been able to hit yet. |
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Posted: 8/28/2024 8:39:29 AM EST
[#8]
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Posted: 8/28/2024 8:42:50 AM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Nonsense, there are still a ton of children’s hospitals Russia hasn’t been able to hit yet. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By SnoGoRider: It is really going to suck in Ukraine this winter. Like someone is trying to take out critical infrastructure before winter time Nonsense, there are still a ton of children’s hospitals Russia hasn’t been able to hit yet. Bosh. They haven't hit them because they haven't wanted to. Russia can hit any hospital they want, anytime. Best to spread them out and attack them unpredictably. 
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Posted: 8/28/2024 12:40:16 PM EST
[#10]
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Posted: 8/28/2024 2:30:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: 56xdx_Z]
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: I don’t think Moscow ever acted in good faith regarding peace negotiations and yes I’m aware of accusations and claims about Boris Johnson etc. Anyway, with NATO membership talk {despite many members opposed} about Ukraine and what I suspect is China-Iran-Russia hope of cratering, dividing and stressing the US, NATO and “the west” in hopes of establishing as they call it “a multipolar world” this conflict will drag on and at best return to a occasional shelling, UW grey war like the Korean DMZ and Ukraine pre 2014. There will be no lasting peace in this decade. We’ll see what Trump has in mind but even without future US support I think the war would change but continue. Russia likely still hopes to acquire Odessa if that takes a decade from their point of view. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I don’t believe Ukraine can collapse Russia cause an internal revolt or that sanctions or Trump opening up US oil will stop this war from continuing. Given both countries are exhausted and have comparative manpower issues it’s likely going to lean into drones, missiles and artillery more and more https://kyivindependent.com/drone-swarms-play-key-role-in-ukraines-kursk-incursion-times-reports/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0774-3307087.jpg https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-dismissing-zelenskiys-talk-plan-end-war-says-russia-will-keep-fighting-2024-08-28/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0773-3307079.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0775-3307084.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0776-3307086.jpg Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: I don’t think Moscow ever acted in good faith regarding peace negotiations and yes I’m aware of accusations and claims about Boris Johnson etc. Anyway, with NATO membership talk {despite many members opposed} about Ukraine and what I suspect is China-Iran-Russia hope of cratering, dividing and stressing the US, NATO and “the west” in hopes of establishing as they call it “a multipolar world” this conflict will drag on and at best return to a occasional shelling, UW grey war like the Korean DMZ and Ukraine pre 2014. There will be no lasting peace in this decade. We’ll see what Trump has in mind but even without future US support I think the war would change but continue. Russia likely still hopes to acquire Odessa if that takes a decade from their point of view. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I don’t believe Ukraine can collapse Russia cause an internal revolt or that sanctions or Trump opening up US oil will stop this war from continuing. Given both countries are exhausted and have comparative manpower issues it’s likely going to lean into drones, missiles and artillery more and more https://kyivindependent.com/drone-swarms-play-key-role-in-ukraines-kursk-incursion-times-reports/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0774-3307087.jpg https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-dismissing-zelenskiys-talk-plan-end-war-says-russia-will-keep-fighting-2024-08-28/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0773-3307079.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0775-3307084.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0776-3307086.jpg Sensible analysis overall. I was trying to tell the other guy that Russia's hardening of their position on negotiations seems to have made the "Putin can quit any time" scenario less likely. I think you are right about Odessa. In 2021 Putin wrote an article about Ukraine and Novorossiya, in which he defines Novorossiya as the territories in Crimea and around the black sea seized by Russia in the 2nd half of the 18th century. In the second half of the 18th century, following the wars with the Ottoman Empire, Russia incorporated Crimea and the lands of the Black Sea region, which became known as Novorossiya. They were populated by people from all of the Russian provinces. After the partitions of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Russian Empire regained the western Old Russian lands, with the exception of Galicia and Transcarpathia, which became part of the Austrian – and later Austro-Hungarian – Empire. Given that Odessa was founded in the 1790s under Catherine the Great, it is 100% on the list of territories they will go for. |
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Posted: 8/28/2024 2:36:17 PM EST
[#12]
I never said it was likely, I said he could if he wanted to and he wouldn't be deposed because of it. The change in rhetoric is just that- a change in rhetoric. They were never going to have good faith peace negotiations, so in reality nothing has changed as far as that goes.
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Posted: 8/28/2024 5:51:25 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#13]
ISW https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28-2024
It’s Forbes so……not really a solid source but Forbes is listing 8 brigades for Kursk and projecting 3 weeks for Pokrovsk unless Kiev alters the current dynamic https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/28/if-ukraines-invasion-of-russias-kursk-oblast-was-a-diversion-it-has-failed/ https://kyivindependent.com/russia-controls-40-of-chasiv-yar-ukrainian-military-says/   
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Posted: 8/28/2024 5:56:42 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#14]
CIA’s take on things in Kursk
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-intent-keeping-russian-territory-us-intelligence-official-says-2024-08-28/ |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 9:46:54 AM EST
[#15]
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Posted: 8/29/2024 9:54:24 AM EST
[#16]
 Kursk: Fighting Russia to the Last Ukrainian... |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 9:59:17 AM EST
[Last Edit: Zhukov]
[#17]
Quote HistoryThis guy? https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Brian_Berletic He claimed that the war with Ukraine was "over" 9 months ago.  Failed To Load Title He's quite the news source: https://journal-neo.su/author/brian-berletic/ . Interesting opinions he's got there... |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 10:44:39 AM EST
[#18]
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Posted: 8/29/2024 10:49:39 AM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryPeople can feel free to post whomever they like but I find little to no value from that YouTube channel / Brian forgot his last name. 87% of his videos are rehashing Moscow or Beijing talking points. I already follow Moscow news sources to keep up with what Russia WANTS to tell the world so I don’t need or have the time to hear it twice. But I guess for people who don’t read China state news or Russian news that channel is a way to keep up on how Russia and China see things. Yes I’m aware western media isn’t “trustworthy” I do t need it to be. Information can always be gleaned even from liars or those who are totally silent. |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 11:44:51 AM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: People can feel free to post whomever they like but I find little to no value from that YouTube channel / Brian forgot his last name. 87% of his videos are rehashing Moscow or Beijing talking points. I already follow Moscow news sources to keep up with what Russia WANTS to tell the world so I don't need or have the time to hear it twice. But I guess for people who don't read China state news or Russian news that channel is a way to keep up on how Russia and China see things. Yes I'm aware western media isn't "trustworthy" I do t need it to be. Information can always be gleaned even from liars or those who are totally silent. |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 12:30:14 PM EST
[Last Edit: 56xdx_Z]
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/28/if-ukraines-invasion-of-russias-kursk-oblast-was-a-diversion-it-has-failed/ Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/28/if-ukraines-invasion-of-russias-kursk-oblast-was-a-diversion-it-has-failed/ Came to post this but saw the link was already posted The coming battle for Pokrovsk, a city with a pre-war population of 60,000—many of whom have now fled—is actually an extension of the battle for Avdiivka that ended in a Ukrainian retreat in February. Avdiivka, 24 miles east of Pokrovsk, was a fortress that protected the settlements, railroads and roads to the west. When the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka ran out of ammunition in mid-February and fled—the direct result of a long blockade of U.S. aid to Ukraine by Russia-friendly Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Congress—it left the logistical infrastructure to the west exposed to Russian assaults. A few posters kept saying last year and early this year "it will take 80 years to reach Kiev at this pace", arguments which assumed Russian advances are at a constant linear rate. But they were chewing through defenses constructed for nearly a decade. Now things are moving faster in that direction. Instead of the slow semi encirclement -> foothold -> turn up the heat until the city falls method, they are marching through cities now. They made 4 days work of Novogrodivka, which has about half the pre war population of Avdiivka. Will be interesting to see how things go now that Ukrainian progress in Kursk is stalling / slowed, and the frontline across Donetsk is moving. Cant help but think that a side goal of that whole thing was to "Trump proof" the Ukraine war, since he wanted to negotiate with Russia, and now they say that's off the table. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 8/29/2024 1:33:46 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Came to post this but saw the link was already posted A few posters kept saying last year and early this year "it will take 80 years to reach Kiev at this pace", arguments which assumed Russian advances are at a constant linear rate. But they were chewing through defenses constructed for nearly a decade. Now things are moving faster in that direction. Instead of the slow semi encirclement -> foothold -> turn up the heat until the city falls method, they are marching through cities now. They made 4 days work of Novogrodivka, which has about half the pre war population of Avdiivka. Will be interesting to see how things go now that Ukrainian progress in Kursk is stalling / slowed, and the frontline across Donetsk is moving. Cant help but think that a side goal of that whole thing was to "Trump proof" the Ukraine war, since he wanted to negotiate with Russia, and now they say that's off the table. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/28/if-ukraines-invasion-of-russias-kursk-oblast-was-a-diversion-it-has-failed/ Came to post this but saw the link was already posted The coming battle for Pokrovsk, a city with a pre-war population of 60,000—many of whom have now fled—is actually an extension of the battle for Avdiivka that ended in a Ukrainian retreat in February. Avdiivka, 24 miles east of Pokrovsk, was a fortress that protected the settlements, railroads and roads to the west. When the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka ran out of ammunition in mid-February and fled—the direct result of a long blockade of U.S. aid to Ukraine by Russia-friendly Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Congress—it left the logistical infrastructure to the west exposed to Russian assaults. A few posters kept saying last year and early this year "it will take 80 years to reach Kiev at this pace", arguments which assumed Russian advances are at a constant linear rate. But they were chewing through defenses constructed for nearly a decade. Now things are moving faster in that direction. Instead of the slow semi encirclement -> foothold -> turn up the heat until the city falls method, they are marching through cities now. They made 4 days work of Novogrodivka, which has about half the pre war population of Avdiivka. Will be interesting to see how things go now that Ukrainian progress in Kursk is stalling / slowed, and the frontline across Donetsk is moving. Cant help but think that a side goal of that whole thing was to "Trump proof" the Ukraine war, since he wanted to negotiate with Russia, and now they say that's off the table. Even according to Ukrainian sources, it's apparently bad. From the main thread.
The defense in the Pokrovsky direction is so disorganized that the Russians themselves do not believe in their advances. Unfortunately, the higher command is still receiving reports about the "controlled situation", which is far from being controlled. Among the main problems in the direction: - poor interaction between brigades and smaller adjacent units. - shortage of people and their disproportionate distribution in defensive positions. - our EW suppresses our drones better than enemy EW. - disorganization of brigade rotations. One can leave before the other has entered. The enemy uses this and strikes right there. - the OTU command does not actually manage the troops, has not established interaction and does not have information about our real positions. There are often cases of units being sent to positions that are already in the rear of the Russians, because the OTU thinks that they are behind us. - lies, lies and lies again.
This map posted by a Finnish OSINT group shows the defenses visible through satellite images of the Ukrainians in that area.  What I wonder is, is there any meaningful defenses north of Pokrovsk? The next few months are going to be interesting. |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 2:04:32 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#23]
There’s 4 to possibly 8 weeks of fighting season left, it would be premature imo to conclude anything for either side but this is strictly for context and data point update.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-advance-towards-pokrovsk-slowed-down-after-ukraines-kursk-incursion-zelensky-says/  https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-kursk-operations-aimed-to-force-russia-to-redeploy-its-forces-from-pokrovsk-sector-syrskyi-says/  M   |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 3:01:56 PM EST
[#24]
 Inside Kursk Frontline Russian Underfire Medical Center |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 3:15:52 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#25]
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Posted: 8/29/2024 3:33:17 PM EST
[#26]
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Posted: 8/29/2024 3:41:47 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: This guy? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Lancaster Dude - are you even trying? He's over there reporting on the ground not really many other sources. |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 3:54:18 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Commando223: He's over there reporting on the ground not really many other sources. Yes, the whole issue is that the Russians are there on the ground. |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 4:09:59 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Yes, the whole issue is that the Russians are there on the ground. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-opens-criminal-cases-against-two-more-foreign-journalists-kursk-region-2024-08-27/ |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 4:13:03 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Yes, the whole issue is that the Russians are there on the ground.  INSIDE Russia as we're smuggled into Kursk with Ukrainian invasion force taking the fight to Putin |
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Posted: 8/29/2024 4:50:32 PM EST
[#31]
Always makes me giggle to see Russia invaded.
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Posted: 8/29/2024 7:49:48 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Commando223: He's over there reporting on the ground not really many other sources. “Reporting”. No, he’s not. He’s a paid propagandist, no different than Gonzalo lira and Russel Bentley. |
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Posted: 8/30/2024 3:13:19 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#33]
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Posted: 8/30/2024 5:03:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: BillofRights]
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By atavistic: Has there ever been a war this long that nobody knows who is winning?  . Are you Eight years old and don’t like to read?At the age of 8, I knew about the hundred years war, Napoleonic wars, our own Revolutionary war, Civil War, WW-2, WW-1, Korea, ‘Nam and a few others. |
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Posted: 8/30/2024 5:34:48 PM EST
[Last Edit: BillofRights]
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Oh my, you are gullible.... Or think we are. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Unlike when they tried a thunder run to Kyiv. That was to drop off some undelivered mail they found. Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now Oh my, you are gullible.... Or think we are. “Gullible” would imply he legitimately believes the lies. He’s never given us a shred of evidence of that being the case. |
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USA
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Posted: 8/30/2024 5:46:37 PM EST
[#36]
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Posted: 8/30/2024 6:06:09 PM EST
[#37]
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Posted: 8/30/2024 6:42:21 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryI've noticed there aren't any "airborne is outdated and irrelevant" threads in the last year and a half, since Ukraine turned all WWI trench warfare. I don't think they have fixed wing transport, but it would be cool to see Ukraine really break out and do some real Western style maneuver using Air Assault. I'm assuming they have enough lift to do a BDE+ Air Assault, or at least a big artillery raid. |
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Posted: 8/30/2024 6:48:35 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: I've noticed there aren't any "airborne is outdated and irrelevant" threads in the last year and a half, since Ukraine turned all WWI trench warfare. I don't think they have fixed wing transport, but it would be cool to see Ukraine really break out and do some real Western style maneuver using Air Assault. I'm assuming they have enough lift to do a BDE+ Air Assault, or at least a big artillery raid. Coincidently was thinking about that a couple days ago |
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USA
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Posted: 8/30/2024 7:54:18 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JAD762: https://i.redd.it/gkkk1kj5578b1.jpg |
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USA
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Posted: 8/30/2024 8:57:47 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By feudist: That was hurtful and mean. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By feudist: Originally Posted By JAD762: https://i.redd.it/gkkk1kj5578b1.jpg  
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Posted: 8/31/2024 1:05:25 AM EST
[Last Edit: x248716x]
[#42]
modern armed forces are really gonna go after Playstation, Xbox gamers for drone pilots. it's the future.
Those FPV drones ain't gonna fly themselves, at least, not yet. maybe it's a skill that would keep a young military-age male out of the trenches and off the front line? a valued REMF skill? |
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Posted: 8/31/2024 1:14:01 AM EST
[#43]
Losses amongst drone operators are reportedly high.
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Posted: 8/31/2024 2:06:20 AM EST
[#44]
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Posted: 8/31/2024 2:25:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#45]
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Posted: 8/31/2024 12:15:13 PM EST
[#46]
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Posted: 8/31/2024 12:18:24 PM EST
[#47]
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Posted: 8/31/2024 12:25:47 PM EST
[#48]
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Posted: 8/31/2024 1:01:03 PM EST
[Last Edit: Birddog1911]
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://www.foxnews.com/world/watch-ukraine-fighter-ace-bombing-run-destroys-river-crossing-kursk.amp  Attached File |
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Posted: 8/31/2024 1:08:53 PM EST
[#50]
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