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Originally Posted By mks99: Anybody done the math on current MVIS valuation lately?? If I recall we were in the $2-3B with about 158 million shares at current pricing of $12-18/share. They mentioned on the call that they had not executed the last offers fully but don't remember a number stated. MSNBC and other sites still list the ~158 number for shares outstanding which confuses me. What's our best guess now? (I'm trying to make myself feel good going into the weekend after the Easter Egg thread reinforced my speculation that MVIS is a $8-10b company or $50-60 share range) View Quote Yahoo shows market cap at 2.173B. The $140M ATM was about half way complete by the end of June, $67.8M. No part of the ATM was done in July and the company doesn't need the other half just yet. My guess is they are waiting for a pop/short cover/Elliot Wave peak or something like that to get the other half w/out a greater dilution of shares. Just my thoughts, kicked out of the Mensa club for not being able to string a weed wacker, and certainly not a financial analyst |
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If a Crocodile could reach Uranus, would he lick it?
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Total53... Thanks.
My confirmation bias feels better now. |
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The greatest tragedy is to have the experience and miss the meaning.
Originally Posted By NorCal_LEO: "Critter" is my nickname! |
Benzinga seems to think the bulls have taken over control of Mavis and the shorts are out.
Sorry, no hot link. Yea, yea....low post count 13er. Euthanize me for my own good. |
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Originally Posted By mks99: Anybody done the math on current MVIS valuation lately?? If I recall we were in the $2-3B with about 158 million shares at current pricing of $12-18/share. They mentioned on the call that they had not executed the last offers fully but don't remember a number stated. MSNBC and other sites still list the ~158 number for shares outstanding which confuses me. What's our best guess now? (I'm trying to make myself feel good going into the weekend after the Easter Egg thread reinforced my speculation that MVIS is a $8-10b company or $50-60 share range) View Quote They said on the call they issued 4 million shares during 2Q, and I didn't catch a number for 3Q other than at lower prices, they've stopped selling. They also said they raised $67.8 million, implying an average selling price for those shares of just under $17. MVIS hasn't filed its 10Q yet, but if we take the shares outstanding from the 3/31/21 10Q of 157,951,717, and add 4,000,000 shares, you'd get 161,951,717 shares (assuming no other shares were issued for anything else. At the current price this am of ~$14, that would be a $2.27 billion equity market capitalization. |
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Team Ranstad
NRA Life Member |
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Originally Posted By speedfix20: Benzinga seems to think the bulls have taken over control of Mavis and the shorts are out. Sorry, no hot link. Yea, yea....low post count 13er. Euthanize me for my own good. View Quote An Ominous Technical Development For MicroVision Bears 2:41 pm ET August 5, 2021 (Benzinga) When markets are in rally mode, the bulls are in charge. When they are heading lower it’s the bears who are in control. The breaking of a downtrend line shows the leadership may be about to change from the bears to the bulls. This could be the case with shares of MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS) stock. In the middle of June, MVIS was trading around $22 per share. Then it went into a downtrend and found support around the $12.30 level. It's moving higher Thursday, and in doing so, it broke its recent downtrend line. The bears may be out of gas. The bulls may be taking over. |
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Is Charles Schwab down for anybody else?
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LEGALIZE FREEDOM!
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Originally Posted By rollin-tumblin: An Ominous Technical Development For MicroVision Bears 2:41 pm ET August 5, 2021 (Benzinga) When markets are in rally mode, the bulls are in charge. When they are heading lower it’s the bears who are in control. The breaking of a downtrend line shows the leadership may be about to change from the bears to the bulls. This could be the case with shares of MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS) stock. In the middle of June, MVIS was trading around $22 per share. Then it went into a downtrend and found support around the $12.30 level. It's moving higher Thursday, and in doing so, it broke its recent downtrend line. The bears may be out of gas. The bulls may be taking over. View Quote Looks like it was written by an algorithm. |
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If a Crocodile could reach Uranus, would he lick it?
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She's running, fellas!
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Resistance looks to be much less today. Good movement.
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ok, I'll apologies now as all these thoughts keep popping in my head. I slept like crap last night so I must have been thinking about this crap.
From the earnings call we learned (confirmed) MSFT as the MEMS partner. Also that LiDAR is the company focus for the near term which means MEMS is basically on hold for further development. To me those two combined means that MVIS is poking the MSFT bear and saying buy the IP now, its not going anywhere in the next 2-3 years and we all know the contract is going to play out soon too. All that puts MSFT in a cage if they DON'T buy the vertical because IVAS and HL2 are best in class and they probably don't want to lose that edge. Speculation: MSFT lubes up and finally comes to MVIS with a $2b-ish offer for MEMS tech. They haggle it out and still settle somewhere around the $2b number (just for my simple math) and a deal is done. Now we have MVIS as a tiny little company (125 people) worth $3-4b ($2b cash and $1-2B in LiDAR and other IP). Doesn't that make MVIS a perfect take over target? (Think of the 1970's large investment firms would buy up companys with large balance sheets, good IP, and assets and then break them up and sell off all the parts) No current production so very hard for them to speculate that they really are a $6-10b value. $2b in the bank. Someone walks in with a $5b offer (or a hostile stock takeover) but its really $3 since they would get the bank balance. They offer parachutes to all the managers (seen that!) and all the managers also hit their options targets since the sale meets those conditions (2-3x bagger for them). No wonder I was up all night. Opinions? Am I thinking about this right? And its not that I'm risking everything on MVIS. I'm totally comfortable at my current investment levels. Worst case I don't make a lot of money but I don't see myself losing big either even if this happens. |
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The greatest tragedy is to have the experience and miss the meaning.
Originally Posted By NorCal_LEO: "Critter" is my nickname! |
Originally Posted By mks99: ok, I'll apologies now as all these thoughts keep popping in my head. I slept like crap last night so I must have been thinking about this crap. From the earnings call we learned (confirmed) MSFT as the MEMS partner. Also that LiDAR is the company focus for the near term which means MEMS is basically on hold for further development. To me those two combined means that MVIS is poking the MSFT bear and saying buy the IP now, its not going anywhere in the next 2-3 years and we all know the contract is going to play out soon too. All that puts MSFT in a cage if they DON'T buy the vertical because IVAS and HL2 are best in class and they probably don't want to lose that edge. Speculation: MSFT lubes up and finally comes to MVIS with a $2b-ish offer for MEMS tech. They haggle it out and still settle somewhere around the $2b number (just for my simple math) and a deal is done. Now we have MVIS as a tiny little company (125 people) worth $3-4b ($2b cash and $1-2B in LiDAR and other IP). Doesn't that make MVIS a perfect take over target? (Think of the 1970's large investment firms would buy up companys with large balance sheets, good IP, and assets and then break them up and sell off all the parts) No current production so very hard for them to speculate that they really are a $6-10b value. $2b in the bank. Someone walks in with a $5b offer (or a hostile stock takeover) but its really $3 since they would get the bank balance. They offer parachutes to all the managers (seen that!) and all the managers also hit their options targets since the sale meets those conditions (2-3x bagger for them). No wonder I was up all night. Opinions? Am I thinking about this right? And its not that I'm risking everything on MVIS. I'm totally comfortable at my current investment levels. Worst case I don't make a lot of money but I don't see myself losing big either even if this happens. View Quote Attached File |
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Originally Posted By rollin-tumblin: An Ominous Technical Development For MicroVision Bears 2:41 pm ET August 5, 2021 (Benzinga) When markets are in rally mode, the bulls are in charge. When they are heading lower it’s the bears who are in control. The breaking of a downtrend line shows the leadership may be about to change from the bears to the bulls. This could be the case with shares of MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS) stock. In the middle of June, MVIS was trading around $22 per share. Then it went into a downtrend and found support around the $12.30 level. It's moving higher Thursday, and in doing so, it broke its recent downtrend line. The bears may be out of gas. The bulls may be taking over. View Quote Thank you. |
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Originally Posted By mks99: ok, I'll apologies now as all these thoughts keep popping in my head. I slept like crap last night so I must have been thinking about this crap. From the earnings call we learned (confirmed) MSFT as the MEMS partner. Also that LiDAR is the company focus for the near term which means MEMS is basically on hold for further development. To me those two combined means that MVIS is poking the MSFT bear and saying buy the IP now, its not going anywhere in the next 2-3 years and we all know the contract is going to play out soon too. All that puts MSFT in a cage if they DON'T buy the vertical because IVAS and HL2 are best in class and they probably don't want to lose that edge. Speculation: MSFT lubes up and finally comes to MVIS with a $2b-ish offer for MEMS tech. They haggle it out and still settle somewhere around the $2b number (just for my simple math) and a deal is done. Now we have MVIS as a tiny little company (125 people) worth $3-4b ($2b cash and $1-2B in LiDAR and other IP). Doesn't that make MVIS a perfect take over target? (Think of the 1970's large investment firms would buy up companys with large balance sheets, good IP, and assets and then break them up and sell off all the parts) No current production so very hard for them to speculate that they really are a $6-10b value. $2b in the bank. Someone walks in with a $5b offer (or a hostile stock takeover) but its really $3 since they would get the bank balance. They offer parachutes to all the managers (seen that!) and all the managers also hit their options targets since the sale meets those conditions (2-3x bagger for them). No wonder I was up all night. Opinions? Am I thinking about this right? And its not that I'm risking everything on MVIS. I'm totally comfortable at my current investment levels. Worst case I don't make a lot of money but I don't see myself losing big either even if this happens. View Quote Just thinking out loud... Can the government (I probably know the answer) block an acquisition if they were to deem the technology critical to national defense, i.e., battlefield hololens? If so, is there any recompense for the company? |
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Originally Posted By mks99: ok, I'll apologies now as all these thoughts keep popping in my head. I slept like crap last night so I must have been thinking about this crap. From the earnings call we learned (confirmed) MSFT as the MEMS partner. Also that LiDAR is the company focus for the near term which means MEMS is basically on hold for further development. To me those two combined means that MVIS is poking the MSFT bear and saying buy the IP now, its not going anywhere in the next 2-3 years and we all know the contract is going to play out soon too. All that puts MSFT in a cage if they DON'T buy the vertical because IVAS and HL2 are best in class and they probably don't want to lose that edge. Speculation: MSFT lubes up and finally comes to MVIS with a $2b-ish offer for MEMS tech. They haggle it out and still settle somewhere around the $2b number (just for my simple math) and a deal is done. Now we have MVIS as a tiny little company (125 people) worth $3-4b ($2b cash and $1-2B in LiDAR and other IP). Doesn't that make MVIS a perfect take over target? (Think of the 1970's large investment firms would buy up companys with large balance sheets, good IP, and assets and then break them up and sell off all the parts) No current production so very hard for them to speculate that they really are a $6-10b value. $2b in the bank. Someone walks in with a $5b offer (or a hostile stock takeover) but its really $3 since they would get the bank balance. They offer parachutes to all the managers (seen that!) and all the managers also hit their options targets since the sale meets those conditions (2-3x bagger for them). No wonder I was up all night. Opinions? Am I thinking about this right? And its not that I'm risking everything on MVIS. I'm totally comfortable at my current investment levels. Worst case I don't make a lot of money but I don't see myself losing big either even if this happens. View Quote Very nice. Tonight, can you perform the same thought experiment on DPLS please? TIA. |
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Originally Posted By mks99: ok, I'll apologies now as all these thoughts keep popping in my head. I slept like crap last night so I must have been thinking about this crap. From the earnings call we learned (confirmed) MSFT as the MEMS partner. Also that LiDAR is the company focus for the near term which means MEMS is basically on hold for further development. To me those two combined means that MVIS is poking the MSFT bear and saying buy the IP now, its not going anywhere in the next 2-3 years and we all know the contract is going to play out soon too. All that puts MSFT in a cage if they DON'T buy the vertical because IVAS and HL2 are best in class and they probably don't want to lose that edge. Speculation: MSFT lubes up and finally comes to MVIS with a $2b-ish offer for MEMS tech. They haggle it out and still settle somewhere around the $2b number (just for my simple math) and a deal is done. Now we have MVIS as a tiny little company (125 people) worth $3-4b ($2b cash and $1-2B in LiDAR and other IP). Doesn't that make MVIS a perfect take over target? (Think of the 1970's large investment firms would buy up companys with large balance sheets, good IP, and assets and then break them up and sell off all the parts) No current production so very hard for them to speculate that they really are a $6-10b value. $2b in the bank. Someone walks in with a $5b offer (or a hostile stock takeover) but its really $3 since they would get the bank balance. They offer parachutes to all the managers (seen that!) and all the managers also hit their options targets since the sale meets those conditions (2-3x bagger for them). No wonder I was up all night. Opinions? Am I thinking about this right? And its not that I'm risking everything on MVIS. I'm totally comfortable at my current investment levels. Worst case I don't make a lot of money but I don't see myself losing big either even if this happens. View Quote I think that might have been the case in the past year, and maybe for a few more months, but that MVIS is now a long way towards putting up (best in class) and forward valuation is going to be agreed upon during a sale to a trillion dollar company. |
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Option Calls premium with a strike around $20 sure aren't popping like I'd predict with the last two days of price action on MVIS.
Not as many "$20+ in 1-2 weeks" bulls as I'd expect. It shows that we are certainly the few. I still think we could easily be near that price, though...especially with news coming out within that timeframe. |
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Originally Posted By RatherBeLifting: Just thinking out loud... Can the government (I probably know the answer) block an acquisition if they were to deem the technology critical to national defense, i.e., battlefield hololens? If so, is there any recompense for the company? View Quote ITAR can block that but only on a sale to a foreign or non-domestically controlled company. Even then there are ways around that if they set up a wholly own subsidiary company and such with firewalls in place to prevent tech transfer. |
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The greatest tragedy is to have the experience and miss the meaning.
Originally Posted By NorCal_LEO: "Critter" is my nickname! |
In a strange twist of events...
Everything is red but MVIS. |
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The Frog is Pepe. Someone shouts Hey Pepe @ Hillary rally, then Roger Stone Jedi Mindfucked someone in the Hillary campaign by putting Pepe in the Deplorables meme and now the shit is getting real.
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Originally Posted By speedfix20: Benzinga seems to think the bulls have taken over control of Mavis and the shorts are out. Sorry, no hot link. Yea, yea....low post count 13er. Euthanize me for my own good. View Quote Attached File |
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I saw $15 for a moment.
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"I'm like some kind of evil retard Santa Claus that makes you buy your own toys." -beitodesstrafe
"I keep hearing 'must have a dialogue,' but I keep being told to shut up when I speak." -Sand_Pirate |
If a Crocodile could reach Uranus, would he lick it?
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Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Very nice. Tonight, can you perform the same thought experiment on DPLS please? TIA. View Quote Thoughts on $DPLS the few billion shares scares the shit out of me, and remember what I said about less than 1000 shareholders? take a look at how many employees they have, what they own, IP, etc. and then look at who they have on board as advisors (many ex-government employees, military, defense backgrounds) also keep in mind that the CEO/Owner is on Twitter pretty much everyday pumping the company. does that sound like a solid investment? from my research, they have little debt, plenty of cash, have acquired a few companies already and one is in the works currently. IMHO, buy and hold for a long time because its cheap as fuck right now. I currently don't own any but I did and made a little money. I am currently holding around 2400 shares of MVIS in a few accounts, so whenever that plays out I plan to buy some more DPLS. |
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Originally Posted By Total53: That damn $15 barrier. https://media.giphy.com/media/FnIYzybKTHQBy/giphy.gif View Quote |
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"I'm like some kind of evil retard Santa Claus that makes you buy your own toys." -beitodesstrafe
"I keep hearing 'must have a dialogue,' but I keep being told to shut up when I speak." -Sand_Pirate |
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Originally Posted By mj1angier: Yeah, I sold same block as yesterday for 14.99. Let's see if it gets to 15.49 for next block. Hope it goes to 30 View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By mj1angier: Originally Posted By Admiral_Crunch: I saw $15 for a moment. Yeah, I sold same block as yesterday for 14.99. Let's see if it gets to 15.49 for next block. Hope it goes to 30 $15.10. |
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"I'm like some kind of evil retard Santa Claus that makes you buy your own toys." -beitodesstrafe
"I keep hearing 'must have a dialogue,' but I keep being told to shut up when I speak." -Sand_Pirate |
okay options guys...
I have about $3k that i would like to use to buy more MVIS. I figured I could make a couple more $$ buy using/buying options to make the purchase but I am new to options and would like an explanation on how to make the most out of my purchase. Should I be buying calls? at $14.50/$15.00? Sorry, new to the options trading! Thanks, MPNelson81 |
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If a Crocodile could reach Uranus, would he lick it?
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View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Total53: Originally Posted By Admiral_Crunch: $15.10. https://media.giphy.com/media/DffShiJ47fPqM/giphy.gif $15.20. |
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"I'm like some kind of evil retard Santa Claus that makes you buy your own toys." -beitodesstrafe
"I keep hearing 'must have a dialogue,' but I keep being told to shut up when I speak." -Sand_Pirate |
Originally Posted By Mpnelson81: okay options guys... I have about $3k that i would like to use to buy more MVIS. I figured I could make a couple more $$ buy using/buying options to make the purchase but I am new to options and would like an explanation on how to make the most out of my purchase. Should I be buying calls? at $14.50/$15.00? Sorry, new to the options trading! Thanks, MPNelson81 View Quote Selling Cash Secured Puts (CSPs) is what you seek |
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If a Crocodile could reach Uranus, would he lick it?
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If a Crocodile could reach Uranus, would he lick it?
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Originally Posted By Total53: Yahoo Finance is sticking, I see volume over 7.5M and I like it... View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Total53: Originally Posted By Admiral_Crunch: $15.20. Yahoo Finance is sticking, I see volume over 7.5M and I like it... Gonna try something.... $26.80. |
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"I'm like some kind of evil retard Santa Claus that makes you buy your own toys." -beitodesstrafe
"I keep hearing 'must have a dialogue,' but I keep being told to shut up when I speak." -Sand_Pirate |
Originally Posted By Mpnelson81: okay options guys... I have about $3k that i would like to use to buy more MVIS. I figured I could make a couple more $$ buy using/buying options to make the purchase but I am new to options and would like an explanation on how to make the most out of my purchase. Should I be buying calls? at $14.50/$15.00? Sorry, new to the options trading! Thanks, MPNelson81 View Quote You could sell 2 $14 strike Puts expiring today and pick up 200 shares for $2606 plus the fee (maybe $2). |
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If a Crocodile could reach Uranus, would he lick it?
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Picture! Picture! Picture!
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"I'm like some kind of evil retard Santa Claus that makes you buy your own toys." -beitodesstrafe
"I keep hearing 'must have a dialogue,' but I keep being told to shut up when I speak." -Sand_Pirate |
Yesterday I reluctantly sold 8 MVIS $16.50 Covered Calls contracts for 8/13 because I hadn't sold any this week...against my better judgment because I've been calling $20+ by 8/13 for a while now.
Well, I paid the price today. Looks like we might hit $16.50 by 8/13 easily. Bought them back to eat a total of $216, oh well. Looking for $20+ calls for sure now. |
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Originally Posted By FelisTacet: Yesterday I reluctantly sold eight $16.50 Covered Calls contracts for 8/13 because I hadn't sold any this week...against my better judgment because I've been calling $20+ by 8/13 for a while now. Well, I paid the price today. Looks like we might hit $16.50 by 8/13 easily. Bought them back to eat a total of $216, oh well. Looking for $20+ calls for sure now. View Quote Yeah, there's going to be some folks learning about the "down side" of writing covered calls. |
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