Actually, I was one of the few people here who predicted Trump's win.  I had him at 400 EV, which was a bit high, but I got the outcome correct.

Mid terms are really hard to predict, because it is all about turnout.  A typical presidential election has 55-60% turnout.  While a midterm election has around 35% or so.

It is easy to see if one side is more motivated than the other, surprises can easily occur.  We saw this in the special elections (even harder to predict than midterms because turnout is even lower) in Alabama and Pennsylvania.  Right now, the rabid anti-Trumpers are extremely motivated.  Conservatives don't appear to have the same mindset, thinking we can lose in 2018 then "make it up" in 2020.

Most of the "experts" (the same people who predicted Clinton in a landslide) have the dems flipping the House and gaining 35 or so seats.  (Steve Bannon even agrees with that analysis.)  They give the dems a 50% chance of winning the Senate, which is remarkable given that 10 dem senators are up for re-election in states Trump won.

If you nailed me down on a prediction, I would say we gain 7 Senate seats and lose 7 House seats.  That is extremely optimistic, but I think conservative turnout will pickup and Trump is a very non-linear and unpredictable operator who won't allow a "blue wave" to occur without a fight.  He is taking an active role in campaigning, and he will likely bring some issues (like immigration) for the forefront before the election.

If I am right, we still need every Senate seat we can get as a firewall against rough 2020 and 2022 Senate maps, AND to give us margin to replace a liberal justice with a conservative one.  That will a tectonic shift in the court, and will be a much harder fight than Gorsuch or Kavanaugh.

If I am wrong, we need every Senate seat we can win just to maintain a majority for the rest of Trump's first term.

Also, remember that the three moderate dem senators, if re-elected, will turn hard left since they won't have to face the voters for another 6 years.  And Mitt Romney will be in the Senate.  So a 51-49 Senate next year, will be more liberal than the current 51-49 Senate, if that makes sense.  Another reason for adding more GOP Senators.

Either way, the conclusion is the same: vote Scott over Nelson.

This one really bothers me, my thoughts are Nelson is an old bum not to mention enemy and needs to be voted out. However I see Scott (I voted for that idiot ) these days as a commie traitor, a sneaky snake that cannot be trusted. So I really can't see myself voting for him.

As posted somewhere above we need Scott for his supreme court vote .

Other than that the wife noticed his beach sand was raked special last night.

It's the old "should I vote for a RINO or not? question.  I disagree that Scott is a RINO, but even if he is, consider the following:

If conservatives didn't vote for several RINOs currently in the Senate, the dems would have a current majority.  That means no tax cuts, no Gorsuch, no Kavanaugh, and no record number of court of appeals judges.

SoSom people here advocating that we should run and primary out the State Congressmen who voted for this bill don't actually know how our State Legislature works, most of those State Representatives who voted for the bill are term limited so can't run again. So voting out some term limited Reps won't teach anybody a lesson, killing Rick Scott's political career would send a major message to all remaining Reps and those who aspire to be in our State Legislature.

The state house has 8 year term limits (each term is 2 years).  75% (57 out of 76) of the Florida GOP house caucus voted for gun control.  If you assume 25% of those are term limited (2 divided by 8), that still leaves 43 reps that voted for gun control and are not term limited.  Yes, I understand the math is a little more complicated, but that is a reasonable estimate.

And actually, they CAN run again after taking a two year break, or they can run for higher office.

If you doubt that it will send a message, look at when Dave Brat primaried Eric Cantor in Virginia.  There are some folks who suggest that that single-handedly detailed amnesty under Obama.

If Scott loses, the message isn't going to be that "Scott was too liberal", anymore than it was after McCain lost in 2008.

A lot of moderate Republicans aren't going to be too happy that some conservatives aren't voting for Scott.  How are they going to respond?  By not voting for DeSantis since he is "too conservative".  The end result is that both will lose, but you can feel good about "teaching Scott a lesson", and they can feel good about "teaching DeSantis or Putnam a lesson".

You you think this effect is fake, look no further than the New Hampshire and Nevada elections in 2016!

And if you want a good example of where this intra-party fighting leads, look at Virginia.  Conservatives won't vote for RINOs and RINOs won't support conservatives.  Virginia went from "red" to "blue" in a decade.  Let's not repeat that mistake here in Florida.

And finally, I will say it again: we need Scott to give us a Senate Majority so Trump can get judges confirmed.  Just today, the democrats are asking to delay the vote on Kavanaugh.  McConnell said "no", so the vote will proceed.  But that is only because we have a 51-49 majority.  If two seats flip, Schumer is majority leader, and it is a different ballgame.

Oh, I was probably wrong about one thing.  I said Dianne Feinstein would be running the Senate Judiciary Committee if the dems retake the Senate.

She's up there in age and might not want to handle the workload.  So perhaps Cory Booker or Kamala Harris will be running that committee!  How many pro-RKBA judges do you think they will allow to pass their committee?

But at least you clowns will have "taught Rick Scott a lesson".

Bad news for you Nelson supporters: the latest poll has Scott up by 6 points.

This makes the Florida Senate seat the #1 prospect (based on polls) for flipping a Senate seat in the Republican's favor.

If the trend continues, the democrats will be forced to either spend more money here (thus pulling money from other Senate races), or abandon Nelson.

If they choose the latter, then national GOP resources can be re-allocated to other races (such as Wisconsin, where Vukmir is only down by 2), and state GOP resources can be re-allocated to winning the governor's race, which I expect to be very close.

The Senate race will probably be extremely close as well, so I hope you Nelson guys change your minds.

Don't worry, I won't change my mind and if the poll is accurate 6 points in Scott's favor is bad for Florida.

I'll vote for Scott just to flip that seat. Wasn't going to due to recent events however I'm trying to look at the big picture here.

Flipping a seat from a leftist to a conservative in a swing state is a really big deal.

You can argue that it is even more beneficial to do that than flip states like West Virginia and North Dakota, which have moderate dems that vote with Trump 50% of the time.

In the former, you are going from a Senator that votes 0% with to Trump to one that will vote 90% or more with Trump.  In the latter cases, you are going from 50% to 100%.

I'll never forget that Quisling Scott implemented the law that decrees  a person's legally owned personal property to be contraband and a felony to possess comes this October.

By setting this precedent, Scott has handed an incredibly large victory to the gun grabbers to whom he is now pandering,  by opening the door for similar legislation down the road that blacklists magazines and certain firearms by criminalizing their possession thereby turning us into felons with a stroke of a pen.

Scott needs to be tarred and feathered and ridden out of politics on a rail.

Yeah we get it you aren't gonna vote for Scott.  Might wanna change your name to you first. We need Republicans senators for America first issues like border security and scotus picks. I bet mollie tibbets dad hope scott gets elected here in Florida. Kate stienleys father probably Hope's so also. Enjoy your bill Nelson vote.

So if my choices are between a gun grabber that will vote to impeach trump and open borders for more illegal rapsit and killers (an I am a first generation American btw) or a "gun grabber" that will vote to protect most of my interests most of the time then I guess I will just vote for that guy. But hey if you wanna vote for the one that wants to screw you over on most of what you think instead of just one part of your views then you go ahead.

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Snake


Just  playing

Photobucket works again. Ya'll are in trouble.

So you actually think that the pandering and  politically opportunistic Quisling Rick Scott isn't going to continue to screw you over on those other issues as well?

Cute.

What eludes you is that teaching the remaining "pro gun rights" elected officials in this state that they can appeal to liberal gun grabbing voters at our expense and still retain our votes,  is political suicide for us.

We're done as a political constituency if we allow ourselves to be bent over without there being any political  consequence for those that sell us out.

nelson needs to go.

I'm gonna hold my nose and vote for Scott- even though that cocksucker nelson is gonna win- again- and will do everything in his power to fuck gun owners 3X as hard as a freshman senator could do.

You make it sound like the rest of the politicians up there are perfect!

I'm not happy about the crap that Scott signed into law either.  If you wanted to make a point, you should have run successful primary challengers against 2 or 3 of the GOP state house reps that voted for it.  You aren't going to make a point by re-electing Nelson.

The Florida law can be overturned, but we need a strong pro-RKBA state house and senate to accomplish it.  We also need a pro-RKBA governor, which we have a great chance to elect in November.

Unfortunately, there are many laws in other states that are so far left, they will never be overturned except by the Supreme Court properly reading the Constitution.  In order for that to happen, we need good judges.  To have good judges, we need a good President to appoint them, which we have.  We also need to have a conservative Senate to approve them.  And we need Rick Scott to be one of those votes.

Ironically, by voting for Rick Scott, you are increasing the chance of those bad laws being overturned.

And by voting for Nelson, you are increasing the chance that those bad laws never get overturned.

Your choice, but don't make it sound like you are doing the rest of us a favor by helping a leftist democrat get re-elected.

Jesus... we arent losing the senate, stop the freak out. I predict we will gain even with scotts loss. How many years have we had nelson? How many years has he been a useless turd shouting at clouds like a tard? Having him there actually helps rally the base when he spouts retarded pelosi like comments. I wont vote for that derpshit but I shure as fuck aint rewarding that criminal scott with more wealth and power. Fuck it burn, it down. Principals are principals. Voting for lesser evils got us here and here is fucked. Dunno about you but im tired of getting fucked. Has Trump endorsed Scott? Nope... wonder why? He is a fucking skallywag thats why.

Without the RINOs in the Senate, Chuck Schumer would be majority leader.  Obama would have gotten Garlick (or worse) on the Supreme Court, and the dems probably wouldn't even let Kennedy's replacement come up for a vote.

We would not have gotten a tax cut.  Nor would Trump have gotten half his cabinet approved.  Nor would we have nearly 20% of the US Court of Appeals comprised of Trump nominees.

Scott was an early Trump supporter-- hardly a RINO, by the way.

Following your logic on Scott, that means that 75% of the Florida GOP state house and senate are "RINOs" and should be voted out.  If you get your way, then the dems would have super majorities in both state houses, which means California style gun control and an income tax.  And those of us that don't like are "battered wives", right?

According to the polls, the dems will flip Nevada and Arizona.  The Republicans are leading in Florida, and very slightly (within in the margin of error) in North Dakota and Missouri.  That means there is a good chance Florida will decide control of the Senate.

Personally, I think the GOP will gain some seats, but do you really want to bet the farm on it?

Based on the 2020 and 2022 Senate maps, the GOP will likely lose seats in both years, so we need margin to control the Senate through 2028.

Also, we need 55 or so Senators for the next Supreme Court nominee, if he/she is replacing a liberal justice.

Bottom line: every senate race is important, and has implications for years to come.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "getting f***ed".  We have concealed carry in 40 states, constitutional carry in 13 (or so), and are about to have a solid 5-4 Supreme Court majority for the first time in decades, with the strong potential for that to grow to 6-3 in the next 2 years.  Conservative have done most of the work, but unfortunately, we have needed the support of RINOs to make some of these things happen.

Now is not the time to let off the gas.  Learn from the leftists: make slow, steady process.

Hmmm. My recent recollection seems to show that the "right" has been voting anti gun and fucking us at every turn possible lately. Shall I bust out the map of republican votes to support this last go around on 7026? Sorry, Im not a mindless dem rallying round the wagon to vote just to vote a seat warming a goon in. We believe polls now after what we saw in 2016? I get what you are saying but Scott is a career criminal. Period. I cant live with myself rewarding his behavior.

Shit sandwich or shit sub.  I'll have neither, thank you!

You're not alone.

Can't say I won't hold my nose and vote for Scott if the race stays tight.  As much as he pissed me (and all of us) off there is a part of me that would love to see FL have 2 Rep Senators.

And you Nelson supporters will be complaining the loudest when Trump can't get anything done over the next 2 years because there aren't enough Republican Senators, because of "your principles".

Chuck Schumer appreciates your support.

You make it sound like the other 99 Senators aren't "career criminals".  What's next?  Are you going to expect them all to be virgins?

Scott will vote with Trump 90% of the time.  Nelson will vote with Trump 0% of the time.  Easy choice.

Losing the Senate in 2018 means Trump could get re-elected in 2020, but have ZERO additional supreme court nominees confirmed unless he cuts a deal with Schumer.  Then you guys will be complaining about him cutting a deal.

Redistricting is a major focus of the dem party to start taking control of the state, and the nation. Please read about it.

We're absolutely going to need Scott, whether you like him or not.

Your plan of putting Nelson in office to send Scott a message will be the worst timing possible for the future of Florida.

Yep.  You get it.  People think there is no difference between a RINO governor and dem, and this might be true on certain policy issues, it makes a big difference come redistricting time, which is right after the 2020 census.  The politicians we elect in November will for the most part be the ones drawing those lines.

While the US Senate doesn't have direct control over redistricting, many of the things they do will have an effect, such as increasing the budget of ICE which means fewer illegals means  less of them get counted in the 2020 census, which means fewer seats for dems.  A seat there and a seat here adds up fast.

If someone is willing to vote for Nelson, they have neither standards nor principles.....

The SCOTUS will become the focal point of our 2a rights.  Nothing related to 2a ever gets cert, with the balance of justice switching the people may be heard if their representation goes awry.  Scott will definitely support Trump’s appointments and that’s important.  Abstaining is silly, you need to hold your noise and keep R in power for the sake of the court alone.  Eventually it will swing back D and the only way we may be protected is a conservative court.

Vote R, yeah many suck but we need the court.  If Ginsburg and Breyer do their actuarial duty we may get 2 more!  Make it easy to remake the court.

I know the apathy towards the republicans but where I came from that apathy manifested in what will be a generation of D’s running my former state.  We lead the nation in property taxes, second in income tax, a weak economy, second most indebtedness and strong gun control.  Forget guns what’s attractive about the rest of that?

In practical terms, we have exactly two choices:

- Vote for Scott, or
- Help Nelson

Anything but voting for Scott helps Nelson. And helping Nelson means working to harm our rights.

If you don’t vote, that is one less vote Nelson needs to win.
If you vote 3rd party, that is one less vote Nelson needs to win.

When all is said and done, either Scott or Nelson will sit in the Senate.

While Scott is clearly weak on Second Amendment issues, the strong probability is that he will support future judicial nominees - and that is a critical front for protecting our rights.

Nelson is actively hostile to the Second Amendment and will certainly oppose the administration on, well, everything.

So if you value the Second Amendment, you have only one realistic choice - vote for Scott. Hold your nose, bring a barf bag, whatever it takes. We need to get Nelson out of the Senate, and keep it from shifting Dem.

Scott has given the gun grabbers in this state ALL of their political momentum by pushing his gun control program through the legislature in record time and we haven't seen or heard the last of it yet.

Now His TV commercials have him walking around in the housing projects to pander to those voters.

By turning Quisling on gun rights Scott took my vote for granted, and is fishing for votes in the enemy's pond; he shouldn't have, because I won't vote for his treacherous ass ever again.

Scott has shown us his true colors and I want to see his political career tank because of it.

More importantly, his Republican colleagues need to see it lest they take us down the same road to becoming a gun ban state.

Lol.

Vote for Scott,  who enacted draconian gun control in our state,  in order to prove you value the Second Amendment.

Vote for Scott, who abrogated the right of 18-21 year old Floridians to buy a gun.

Vote for Scott, if you're becoming a felon on October 1st because with a stroke of his pen, he decreed that your legally purchased property has suddenly become contraband and you face years in prison simply for owning a damned gun stock or binary trigger.

Vote for Scott if you value your gun rights.

Yeah...........NO.

I’m not making an argument regarding Scott on his merits, I thought I made that clear in both posts, guess not.  I get people feel jilted because he screwed us.  If you think you’ve been screwed by a bad Rino wait until you get screwed by a dem majority—it’s worse.  I am simply advocating making the selection process for SCOTUS and federal judges better for Trump.  If we can get better representation in the courts it will give us a place to air our grievances and, just maybe,  the SCOTUS will give cert to some 2a cases.  Odd, how many have been heard recently?  Really none and Clarence Thomas has even commented on the court apparent fear of hearing one.  Short of a governor working to repeal these guns laws, maybe DeSantis will, the best course would be through the courts to evidence that 18-21 year old rights have been diminished.  Beyond guns how do you feel about Medicaire for everyone?  Higher income taxes appeal to you?  What if this apathy for republicans give democrats reasonable representation in the state itself?  How would it be to have a state income tax, a magazine capacity ban and an AWB?  Then we’ll be discussing people of all ages having their rights diminshed.  It will be very advantageous to have the courts on our side, that was my point, nothing more.

This, anything else is cutting one’s nose of to spite their face.

That is not how this works, vote for option 3 in the primary, after that you get choice A or B one way or another.

And those who don't vote for Scott will be whining about how Trump can't get a Supreme Court justice approved in the future because he doesn't have enough Republican Senators.

Here are a couple of nightmare scenarios:

#1: A liberal justice resigns next year, but the Republicans lack the votes to get Trump's conservative pick (perhaps Barrett?) on the court.  The seat remains vacant until
2020, and a dem wins the White House, and promptly appoints a 40-year old Ginsburg clone to the court.  What could have been a 6-3 majority is now only 5-4.

#2: Kalifornia's gun laws get a serious court challenge by the NRA or another group.  Case goes to the 9th circus, who rules against the 2nd amendment.  The NRA appeals, and the USSC agrees to hear the case.  5-4 majority.  Good for us, right?  But consider that these cases take years to go through the system.  Let's say a conservative judge retires next year, but the dems control the Senate, which mean the court is now deadlocked 4-4.  A tie vote means the lower court ruling (in this hypothetical case, the 9th circus) stands and is now consider "precedent".  Even worse, a democrat defeats Trump in 2020, and promptly nominates a leftist to replace Thomas.  Now the court has a 5-4 liberal majority, with a dem president and senate ready for any future vacancies.

These aren't insane theories.  Many people expect 1 or 2 justices to retire in the remainder of Trump's 1st term, and more after that.  But having Trump in the White House is only half the equation.  He needs a conservative Senate to confirm those nominees.

Every Senate race is important this year, especially here in Florida, where we have a great chance to defeat a leftist anti-Trumper.

I would say it is better than a "strong probability".

Even the RINOs in the current Senate (and Scott will be a big improvement over them) have supported 99% of Trump's judges 99% of the time.

The bill had to pass the Florida state house and senate first.  So I guess we should also vote out all the Republicans who voted for it, to "teach them a lesson", right?

The result of that will be democrat supermajorities in both houses that can override any veto by DeSantis.

Anyway, Schumer appreciates your support.  How many gun bills do you think Feinstein will introduce when she is running the Judiciary committee?

Have you even thought that far ahead?

I have to laugh at these clowns who think they are "teaching Scott a lesson" by helping Nelson and the dems retain Senate control.  I will guarantee you not a one of them have looked at the 2020 or 2022 Senate maps to conclude that if the GOP loses the Senate this year, the dems will run it until 2024 at least.

I will also guarantee you not one of them has considered what will happen if we follow their logic and vote out all the Republicans in Florida who voted for SB7026, which will result in dem supermajorities.

And I will guarantee that none of the have a clue about what happened in Virginia where the intra-party fighting between moderates and conservatives has decimated the party and turned Virginia blue.

These are the same people who will then complain about how "Trump and McConnell don't support the second amendment" with a dem Senate.

The bottom line is DeSantis will be the best RKBA governor we have had in decades, but if the dems retake the state senate, the best we can hope for is a stalemate at the state level.  At the federal level, we need Scott to support Trump's nominees.