User Panel
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dang!! I DT'd my entry and then got duped to boot.... not my month I guess... FYI: A doubletap will not disqualify you, Mr MND's report will ignore the second entry, when it is obvious that a glitch occurred. Unless, of course, you edit or disqualify yourself any other way. So if you pick a number which is a dupe, and then edit it to pick a non picked number you're disqualified? If so, then doh! I guess I just learned one of the other rules. Yes. DO NOT EDIT YOUR POST. (If you wanna win) So if the rest of you 1999 posters will go ahead and edit all your posts, then I can get my stealth. |
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Quoted: Man, someone just duped me. I know statistically it doesn't hurt my chances any more than if they'd picked a unique number, but it's still a bit annoying. Lets say all numbers were picked the following would be your odds of winning= ––––––With No dupes 1/2000 odds of getting your number drawn = 0.05% chance of winning ––––––-If your number is duped ––––> (1/2000)(1/2)= 1/4000 odds of getting number drawn = 0.025% chance of winning ––––––-If your number is triped (two others also chose it) ––––> (1/2000)(1/3)= 1/6000 odds of getting number drawn = 0.01667% chance of winning Now if you want to calculate your odds based on the current number of valid numbers picked just substitute 2000 for valid numbers picked. Let N=valid numbers picked and use the following formula: (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn Since Mark picks a number until it lands on a valid number the above is correct. ETA: looking at mnd's report there are currently 1346 numbers picked ( I'm assuming all these numbers picked are valid since I have no idea how mnd sets up the report). If someone has not been duped, they currently have a 0.074% chance of winning. If someone has been duped––––––-0.037% Triped––––––––––0.025% Anyone feel free to correct me but please show the valid math and not just say "That aint wright their, ma buddy told me so". EDIT: changed numbered to numbers. |
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Man, someone just duped me. I know statistically it doesn't hurt my chances any more than if they'd picked a unique number, but it's still a bit annoying. Lets say all numbers were picked the following would be your odds of winning= ––––––With No dupes 1/2000 odds of getting your number drawn = 0.05% chance of winning ––––––-If your number is duped ––––> (1/2000)(1/2)= 1/4000 odds of getting number drawn = 0.025% chance of winning ––––––-If your number is triped (two others also chose it) ––––> (1/2000)(1/3)= 1/6000 odds of getting number drawn = 0.01667% chance of winning Now if you want to calculate your odds based on the current number of valid numbers picked just substitute 2000 for valid numbers picked. Let N=valid numbed picked and use the following formula: (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn Since Mark picks a number until it lands on a valid number the above is correct. ETA: looking at mnd's report there are currently 1346 numbers picked ( I'm assuming all these numbers picked are valid since I have no idea how mnd sets up the report). If someone has not been duped, they currently have a 0.074% chance of winning. If someone has been duped––––––-0.037% Triped––––––––––0.025% Anyone feel free to correct me but please show the valid math and not just say "That aint wright their, ma buddy told me so". What if everyone picks the same number? (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn 2K team members pick the same number we will use 12 for example because its mine. (1/2000)(1/2001)) = 1/4,002,000 OR 1000 Team member pick 12 and 1000 team members pick 308 ? (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn (1/2000)(1/1000) = 1/2,000,000 Dont have a pocket protector or slide rule. But I think it is 1/n where n = number of valid posts. |
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I did dupe someone, and I am sorry for that. But apparently, I was #3 on that number. #1 was Gutsy, and #2 was.... Gutsy? How did the same guy get double entries on the same number? 722, if someone wants to look at it.
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I duped a guy, but I've used that number for a while.
No big deal, I don't think you can (legitimately) get pissed for not winning a free rifle. |
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Thanks Mark for the giveaway every month and thank you mnd for putting the reports together!!
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Once again, cheers to ML for the contest, and to mnd for the technology to help us avoid dupes and see what's going on.
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Man, someone just duped me. I know statistically it doesn't hurt my chances any more than if they'd picked a unique number, but it's still a bit annoying. Lets say all numbers were picked the following would be your odds of winning= ––––––With No dupes 1/2000 odds of getting your number drawn = 0.05% chance of winning ––––––-If your number is duped ––––> (1/2000)(1/2)= 1/4000 odds of getting number drawn = 0.025% chance of winning ––––––-If your number is triped (two others also chose it) ––––> (1/2000)(1/3)= 1/6000 odds of getting number drawn = 0.01667% chance of winning Now if you want to calculate your odds based on the current number of valid numbers picked just substitute 2000 for valid numbers picked. Let N=valid numbed picked and use the following formula: (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn Since Mark picks a number until it lands on a valid number the above is correct. ETA: looking at mnd's report there are currently 1346 numbers picked ( I'm assuming all these numbers picked are valid since I have no idea how mnd sets up the report). If someone has not been duped, they currently have a 0.074% chance of winning. If someone has been duped––––––-0.037% Triped––––––––––0.025% Anyone feel free to correct me but please show the valid math and not just say "That aint wright their, ma buddy told me so". What if everyone picks the same number? (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn 2K team members pick the same number we will use 12 for example because its mine. (1/2000)(1/2001)) = 1/4,002,000 OR 1000 Team member pick 12 and 1000 team members pick 308 ? (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn (1/2000)(1/1000) = 1/2,000,000 Dont have a pocket protector or slide rule. But I think it is 1/n where n = number of valid posts. So... did I win? |
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Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Man, someone just duped me. I know statistically it doesn't hurt my chances any more than if they'd picked a unique number, but it's still a bit annoying. Lets say all numbers were picked the following would be your odds of winning= ––––––With No dupes 1/2000 odds of getting your number drawn = 0.05% chance of winning ––––––-If your number is duped ––––> (1/2000)(1/2)= 1/4000 odds of getting number drawn = 0.025% chance of winning ––––––-If your number is triped (two others also chose it) ––––> (1/2000)(1/3)= 1/6000 odds of getting number drawn = 0.01667% chance of winning Now if you want to calculate your odds based on the current number of valid numbers picked just substitute 2000 for valid numbers picked. Let N=valid numbed picked and use the following formula: (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn Since Mark picks a number until it lands on a valid number the above is correct. ETA: looking at mnd's report there are currently 1346 numbers picked ( I'm assuming all these numbers picked are valid since I have no idea how mnd sets up the report). If someone has not been duped, they currently have a 0.074% chance of winning. If someone has been duped––––––-0.037% Triped––––––––––0.025% Anyone feel free to correct me but please show the valid math and not just say "That aint wright their, ma buddy told me so". What if everyone picks the same number? (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn 2K team members pick the same number we will use 12 for example because its mine. (1/2000)(1/2001)) = 1/4,002,000 OR 1000 Team member pick 12 and 1000 team members pick 308 ? (1/N)(1/(1+ Team members your number has been picked by other than you))= 1/X odds of getting number drawn (1/2000)(1/1000) = 1/2,000,000 Dont have a pocket protector or slide rule. But I think it is 1/n where n = number of valid posts. Assuming you picked 12 for both situations: Your N is wrong. N should be 1 since only one unique number is picked (#12). (1/1)(1/2001))= 1/2001 Your N is wrong. N should be 2 since only two unique numbers were picked (12 and 308). (1/2)(1/1001))= 1/2002 |
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why is it that the same guy keeps duping me every month. If it was a lucky number I would have won something by now. Hey man, check this report and pick a different number!
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" I've been duped. Boo-Hoo"
This is a free contest by a overly generous vendor who happens (by most accounts) to be a stand-up guy. Another stand up-guy takes the time to keep interested parties informed regarding the status of the contest. To me, bitching about being duped demonstrates a complete lack of appreciation for this monthly opportunity. I said it once before and I'll say it again. Thank you, Mr. LaRue, for the consideration and opportunity to receive a gift from you. Thank you, Mr. Fingar, for taking the time from your schedule to provide information regarding this opportunity. Good luck to everyone else. If you can't think of a good number to pick, you may borrow the one I pick every month....1314. |
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You forgot to add in a Booyah! Quoted:
" I've been duped. Boo-Hoo" This is a free contest by a overly generous vendor who happens (by most accounts) to be a stand-up guy. Another stand up-guy takes the time to keep interested parties informed regarding the status of the contest. To me, bitching about being duped demonstrates a complete lack of appreciation for this monthly opportunity. I said it once before and I'll say it again. Thank you, Mr. LaRue, for the consideration and opportunity to receive a gift from you. Thank you, Mr. Fingar, for taking the time from your schedule to provide information regarding this opportunity. Good luck to everyone else. If you can't think of a good number to pick, you may borrow the one I pick every month....1314. |
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Not that I really care (although I go out of my way NOT to dupe people) it seems to be that, statistically, the best strategy is to wait until the hours before the contest ends, check the report, and pick a "clean" number, which there are always plenty of.
That way you maintain your 1/2000 chances, and haven't REALLY lost anything. I'm never first to get the BCG (or, in this case, a bitchin' mount) so there's really no advantage to being, like, the 75th poster. |
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Assuming you picked 12 for both situations: Your N is wrong. N should be 1 since only one unique number is picked (#12). (1/1)(1/2001))= 1/2001 Your N is wrong. N should be 2 since only two unique numbers were picked (12 and 308). (1/2)(1/1001))= 1/2002 How can to odds be greater than the overall number of valid participants? Someone wins every time. So if someone wins every time how can the odds be any higher than the number of valid entries. This can only be if there is a chance that no one will win. (i.e. the lottery) Example: The odds of flipping a heads on a coin is the same the 100th time as it is the first time, regardless if 99 heads have been flipped in a row before. This is a common as in the old gambler saying my number has to come up soon, because it hasn't been picked in the past. Your N is wrong. N should be 1 since only one unique number is picked (#12). it is 2000 not 2001 sorry my mistake (1/1)(1/2000))= 1/2000 Your N is wrong. N should be 2 since only two unique numbers were picked (12 and 308). it is 1000 not 1001 sorry my mistake. (1/2)(1/1000))= 1/2000 How do you explain this? Half as many dupers and the odds using your formula are the same. We are looking for the unified theory of UHFO here. Great conversation on odds and well thought out too, Forgetfull. ETA; for snip to shorten. |
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Quoted: Not that I really care (although I go out of my way NOT to dupe people) it seems to be that, statistically, the best strategy is to wait until the hours before the contest ends, check the report, and pick a "clean" number, which there are always plenty of. That way you maintain your 1/2000 chances, and haven't REALLY lost anything. I'm never first to get the BCG (or, in this case, a bitchin' mount) so there's really no advantage to being, like, the 75th poster. Good strategy but sometimes Larue ends the contest early so be careful. As a side note your odds are not 1/2000 unless every number is picked and you are not duped. See my above post. |
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Quoted: How can to odds be greater than the overall number of valid participants? Someone wins every time. So if someone wins every time how can the odds be any higher than the number of valid entries. This can only be if there is a chance that no one will win. (i.e. the lottery) Example: The odds of flipping a heads on a coin is the same the 100th time as it is the first time, regardless if 99 heads have been flipped in a row before. This is a common as in the old gambler saying my number has to come up soon, because it hasn't been picked in the past. Your N is wrong. N should be 1 since only one unique number is picked (#12). it is 2000 not 2001 sorry my mistake (1/1)(1/2000))= 1/2000 Your N is wrong. N should be 2 since only two unique numbers were picked (12 and 308). it is 1000 not 1001 sorry my mistake. (1/2)(1/1000))= 1/2000 How do you explain this? Half as many dupers and the odds using your formula are the same. We are looking for the unified theory of UHFO here. Great conversation on odds and well thought out too, Forgetfull. ETA; for snip to shorten. (1/N)(1/Y))= odds N= total of valid numbers picked, Y = people that have selected your number as well +1. The numbers that are not picked cannot be the winning number since Laure just draws again so we can throw out the unpicked numbers. That leaves the numbers that are picked. Lets say 2 total picked. I picked #5 and the other number picked was #10. Only I picked #5 but 501 others people picked #10. N=2 in this case since there are two valid numbers picked. My odds of winning are (1/2)(1/1))= 1/2 One of the other contestants odds of winning are (1/2)(1/500))= 1/1000 Basically there are two drawings. The initial one and the one between dupers. Since No one duped me I don't have to do the second drawing. And the more dupers of your number the worse your odds are of winning the second drawing. To get your overall odds just multiply you odds of winning the initial drawing and the "duping" drawing. Your odds will be kinda unique to you. Others can have the same odds but they have had to have picked a number with equal dupes. |
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Better get your entries in now, Laure is shutting the contest down early.
http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=1074729&light= |
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Looks like I slipped in just in time. I completely forgot about it this month since I've been busy with work.
I made a blind pick and didn't even bother looking at the report. Luckily no one had picked it yet, which that number usually gets at least two picks each time. Must be an omen.
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Better get your entries in now, Laure is shutting the contest down early. http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=1074729&light= Not early, just when it hits 2,000 and locks itself. |
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Thanks to Mark for putting on another great contest and good luck to all
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Quoted: Quoted: Better get your entries in now, Laure is shutting the contest down early. http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=1074729&light= Not early, just when it hits 2,000 and locks itself. Derp. My bad. That's cool you can set it to do that. |
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Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Better get your entries in now, Laure is shutting the contest down early. http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=1074729&light= Not early, just when it hits 2,000 and locks itself. Derp. My bad. That's cool you can set it to do that. I think it is an ARFCOM default setting |
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i F'n duped a guy and i didn't even know it. i picked the number before looking at the report. damned rookie mistake and i know it. i'm ashamed of my actions and for my mistake i will abstain from next months contest. |
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Geez, we are so close. How about a GD blast to get it filled? Side note: I always get duped!!!!!!!!
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Sorry HUCK70, i posted before the report hit and if i win, i'll give you something for being a damned duper.
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for the guys that duped someone you should just go edit your post and DQ yourself, its the honorable thing todo
been picking the same number for the last 2 years, and never been duped until last month, and then this month i got duped twice |
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Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Better get your entries in now, Laure is shutting the contest down early. http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=1074729&light= Not early, just when it hits 2,000 and locks itself. Derp. My bad. That's cool you can set it to do that. I think it is an ARFCOM default setting No it's not, Industry threads will go to 100 pages. After that, it maxes out. |
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for the guys that duped someone you should just go edit your post and DQ yourself, its the honorable thing todo been picking the same number for the last 2 years, and never been duped until last month, and then this month i got duped twice I have picked the same number for 6 months without getting duped, and then, for the last 3 months, someone else dupes my number. This time, I duped someone. The point I was trying to make in my post is that, according to the report, he has 2 entries on the same number; he duped himself. |
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I really donot mind if i get duped, but i feel this way bout it.
1) Mark LaRue donates this fantastic, bundle of product that most cant afford, on a wim, me first , Generous man. 2) mnd spends time that could be spent with family, whatever he enjoys, LOYAL GENT.... 3) all that is given , from the LT kit, to MNDs time involved.. 4) HOW HARD IS IT TO CHECK THE REPORT, IF NOT THE FIRT 20 OR SO POSTERS, IT DONT MATTER AFTER THAT, SO WAIT FOR REPORT, wont have to read 15 pages or what ever , SO ALL HAVE AN EVEN PLAYING FIELD. 5) JUST MY .02 CENTS..... LOOK OUT GUYS COMMING IN FOR A HARD LANDING..... |
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As always ... thanks to Mark for the opportunity and thanks to mnd for the great report ... makes the first of the month something to look forward to.
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The Contest Report thread always brings out the Nancys. What in gods name is a NANCY?? its a new one to me, ,,i have to keep up with DA lingo??????? |
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Quoted: A Nancy boy? It's a girly man, pussy, whiner, cry baby, etc. etc. I have also heard it used in reference to someone with effeminate qualities.Quoted: The Contest Report thread always brings out the Nancys. What in gods name is a NANCY?? its a new one to me, ,,i have to keep up with DA lingo??????? ETA, it's an expression that's been around for as long as I can remember. Seriously surprised that you haven't ever heard of it. (Not implying in any way that you personally would be called that.) |
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A Nancy boy? It's a girly man, pussy, whiner, cry baby, etc. etc. I have also heard it used in reference to someone with effeminate qualities.
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The Contest Report thread always brings out the Nancys. What in gods name is a NANCY?? its a new one to me, ,,i have to keep up with DA lingo??????? ETA, it's an expression that's been around for as long as I can remember. Seriously surprised that you haven't ever heard of it. (Not implying in any way that you personally would be called that.) Roger that, girlyman or mary, them i have herd used , i think im getting old now,,,, |
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Just asked my youngest boy 13 ,of 3 kids, the oldest being 25, he and a friend were over playing video games,
HEY you guys call any your friends nancys, (duh) yea dad were you been hiding, they both got a good laugh, at my expence ,, damm now im really feeling old, |
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Quoted: I really donot mind if i get duped, but i feel this way bout it. 1) Mark LaRue donates this fantastic, bundle of product that most cant afford, on a wim, me first , Generous man. 2) mnd spends time that could be spent with family, whatever he enjoys, LOYAL GENT.... 3) all that is given , from the LT kit, to MNDs time involved.. 4) HOW HARD IS IT TO CHECK THE REPORT, IF NOT THE FIRT 20 OR SO POSTERS, IT DONT MATTER AFTER THAT, SO WAIT FOR REPORT, wont have to read 15 pages or what ever , SO ALL HAVE AN EVEN PLAYING FIELD. 5) JUST MY .02 CENTS..... LOOK OUT GUYS COMMING IN FOR A HARD LANDING..... Damn it SharpEdge, it seems I find myself tracking with you A LOT!! Hell, between you a FCA all I have to do is sit here, keep my mouth shut, nod my head and wait for you two to get it said! Stay Safe Out There!! ETA: but I did know what a Nancy is and I imagine I'm even a touch older than you... |
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How can to odds be greater than the overall number of valid participants? Someone wins every time. So if someone wins every time how can the odds be any higher than the number of valid entries. This can only be if there is a chance that no one will win. (i.e. the lottery) Example: The odds of flipping a heads on a coin is the same the 100th time as it is the first time, regardless if 99 heads have been flipped in a row before. This is a common as in the old gambler saying my number has to come up soon, because it hasn't been picked in the past. Your N is wrong. N should be 1 since only one unique number is picked (#12). it is 2000 not 2001 sorry my mistake (1/1)(1/2000))= 1/2000 Your N is wrong. N should be 2 since only two unique numbers were picked (12 and 308). it is 1000 not 1001 sorry my mistake. (1/2)(1/1000))= 1/2000 How do you explain this? Half as many dupers and the odds using your formula are the same. We are looking for the unified theory of UHFO here. Great conversation on odds and well thought out too, Forgetfull. ETA; for snip to shorten. (1/N)(1/Y))= odds N= total of valid numbers picked, Y = people that have selected your number as well +1. The numbers that are not picked cannot be the winning number since Laure just draws again so we can throw out the unpicked numbers. That leaves the numbers that are picked. Lets say 2 total picked. I picked #5 and the other number picked was #10. Only I picked #5 but 501 others people picked #10. N=2 in this case since there are two valid numbers picked. My odds of winning are (1/2)(1/1))= 1/2 One of the other contestants odds of winning are (1/2)(1/500))= 1/1000 Basically there are two drawings. The initial one and the one between dupers. Since No one duped me I don't have to do the second drawing. And the more dupers of your number the worse your odds are of winning the second drawing. To get your overall odds just multiply you odds of winning the initial drawing and the "duping" drawing. Your odds will be kinda unique to you. Others can have the same odds but they have had to have picked a number with equal dupes. I still say your odds can not be greater than the total number of entries. I believe we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one sir, and after looking around on the interwebz I am not so sure I have the math skillz for this anyway. I explained this to a friend that is a mathematics professor at a local university and she said that this isnt a math question it is a probability question and that I needed to talk to someone with a degree in statistics. Gee Thanks, I think that was a nice way of saying that this is a complex question that you are not going to solve with your simple silly little equation. Oh look how cute it is..... whos a cute little equation? Yes you are.. yes you are... Now back in your algebra I book. Good boy. |
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Please dont pick my old number...I switched it this month as I didnt want to dupe, nor be duped....I can just see it now....Thank you mark for great products and great community support. I can not ever say it enough! I have an order coming not too long from now for a mount!
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Yeah Imortal, I duped myself on accident. When I hit submit my screen went blank. Came back to the board a minute later and couldn't find my post so I re-posted it. I'll know next time to be patient.
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I just looked at the pic in the contest thread and am stumped. How does the upper attach to the lower?
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I just looked at the pic in the contest thread and am stumped. How does the upper attach to the lower? I just noticed that something is missing from the upper |
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