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Posted: 1/25/2020 11:17:41 AM EDT
[#1]
I posted this in the big thread. A little insight on the math of infection growth:
Quoted:
Quoted: Ive seen that Jon Reads paper was revised to an R0 of 2.5, though I haven’t had a chance to see if they’ve revised their anticipated range of infected. I imagine they have. The trouble with all of this is of course that we have no idea if the numbers reported are accurate, and we likely won’t for weeks. What Is R0?: Gauging Contagious Infections Engineers may think of system damping as an analogy. Wuhan virus is VERY underdamped. For example, if 1 person infects 1 more, after 10 jumps, 11 people are infected. If 1 person infects 2, after 10 jumps it's 2E10, or 1024 infected. The original 3.8 R0 would have been 627,821 infected. (2.5 R0 after 10 jumps would be 9537, 2.7 R0 would be 20,589, and so on) What I've read indicates Dec 1st or thereabouts was the initial case (pls correct if someone knows a better date). Problem is, we don't know WHEN during the contagious stage the infection is passes. If it's passed on the 14th day, growth is slow. If it's on the 1st day they are contagious, it's astronomical. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 11:47:32 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Another person in a video saying the real # is 100k. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/309598/036B2852-4D35-49AD-9101-694C371E0858_jpe-1248820.JPG 1. Subversion 2. Destabilization 3. Crisis 4. Normalization |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 12:42:30 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
My personal opinion is this is being under reported by 95%. Based on the weird actions of the Chinese government, and the spread across the globe I'm inclined to believe the rumors of 90,000 to 100,000 infected. With that said, I've got 3 independent data sources in the OP with numbers all in the same ballpark. Where are you seeing 400 additional cases? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I appreciate the updates and your hard work to keep us informed. It appears as though overnight there are roughly 400 new confirmed cases. With that said, I've got 3 independent data sources in the OP with numbers all in the same ballpark. Where are you seeing 400 additional cases? |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 12:45:16 PM EDT
[#4]
Some good news:
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Posted: 1/25/2020 12:46:18 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I posted this in the big thread. A little insight on the math of infection growth: Quick article on R0 aka "R-naught" What Is R0?: Gauging Contagious Infections Engineers may think of system damping as an analogy. Wuhan virus is VERY underdamped. For example, if 1 person infects 1 more, after 10 jumps, 11 people are infected. If 1 person infects 2, after 10 jumps it's 2E10, or 1024 infected. The original 3.8 R0 would have been 627,821 infected. (2.5 R0 after 10 jumps would be 9537, 2.7 R0 would be 20,589, and so on) What I've read indicates Dec 1st or thereabouts was the initial case (pls correct if someone knows a better date). Problem is, we don't know WHEN during the contagious stage the infection is passes. If it's passed on the 14th day, growth is slow. If it's on the 1st day they are contagious, it's astronomical. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 12:47:43 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Some good news: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPIiNvuXkAA_e8j?format=jpg&name=medium |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 2:39:22 PM EDT
[#7]
Supposed video of bodies amidst pts waiting for treatment in Wuhan
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=kpIko_1579872346 |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 3:04:54 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Supposed video of bodies amidst pts waiting for treatment in Wuhan https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=kpIko_1579872346 
This shit is crazy |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 3:14:20 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Supposed video of bodies amidst pts waiting for treatment in Wuhan https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=kpIko_1579872346 |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 3:17:56 PM EDT
[#10]
Judging from that graph in OP (by the way, ty for updating in OP. Not enuf do that. I hate digging) , survival rate appears to be 35-50%.
Thats not bueno |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 3:22:22 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
WTF? I've never been to china, so I don't know if this is a cultural issue, or just an issue within that particular hospital. However, the only way that situation arises is if people stop making decisions on the fly and ignore concerns that are outside of their assigned responsibilities. She..."sought out the leader for that area and he doesn't know what to do either." Seriously woman, get a couple people to start moving corpses onto a gurney and take them to your hospitals morgue. If the morgue is full take them outside to a parking lot and close the parking lot off. Make sure to take all identification off the bodies and take pictures of the corpse. Then make a call to get some lime to cover the bodies, until they can be cremated. Does she really need a leader to tell her, or is this part of their culture that I just don't understand? I don't know maybe I'm just naive. It just seems odd that she seems to be carrying on as though she is helpless. I'm sure her co-workers on that floor are doing the exact same thing. It has been my experience that Americans are much better at thinking on their feet under these circumstances. When the chain of command breaks down or is ineffective someone is usually there to pick and the reins and start making decisions so that the 'trains keep running." I suspect in SocioCommunist society, free thought for oneself is highly discouraged too. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 3:28:59 PM EDT
[#12]
Chinese News Report: Additional Details on Three Beijing Doctors infected with coronavirus
Beijing confirms three doctors infected with new coronavirus Google Translate: Original title: Beijing confirms three doctors infected with new coronavirus
According to the Beijing Municipal Health and Health Committee, the three doctors include: 1. Wang Moumou, male, went to Wuhan on January 8 for a business trip, returned to Beijing on the 16th, developed fever and respiratory symptoms on the same day, and went to a medical institution in the city on the 20th. A pneumonia case was confirmed on the 21st with a new coronavirus infection. 2. Lu Mou, male, went to Wuhan on January 10 for a business trip, returned to Beijing on the 11th, and developed fever symptoms on the 14th. He was treated in a medical institution in the city on the 20th. A case of pneumonia confirmed by a new coronavirus; 3. Yan, male, traveled to Dalian, Jilin Baishan, Changchun and other places from January 3rd to 10th. When attending the meeting on the 14th, he was next to a certain patient named Lu Mou On the 18th, fever symptoms appeared. On the 20th, he was seen in a medical institution in the city. On the 25th, he was diagnosed with a new coronavirus-infected pneumonia case. At present, the three doctors are receiving isolation treatment at designated hospitals, and their condition is stable. Those who have been in close contact have been included in the isolation medical observation. No abnormalities have been reported. (Main reporter: Bai Jiege) |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 3:36:37 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's about time for the U.S. fake news media to get off their orange man bad 24/7 and start doing some actual journalism. I'm sure they'll get right on that. 
So far they've done a good job of not creating a panic. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 3:47:01 PM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 1/25/2020 3:56:54 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That isn't a normal response to 1,400 cases. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:04:06 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is a notable. That isn't a normal response to 1,400 cases. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:05:12 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yep. I notice it says ‘interstate’. So, all flights out canceled, or just travel in China? Flights are still coming and going from China otherwise.  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:11:09 PM EDT
[#18]
Source tweet. It has to be way worse than anticipated, China is suiciding their economy with this. If Shanghai and Hong Kong follow, shit has hit the fan.
Oddly enough after reading that link, I can’t connect to Twitter on my phone. 
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:12:52 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Me, my wife, and my kid were seriously ill earlier in the week. Flu symptoms, rapid onset, and debilitating. After a few days we were all back at our routines, but right now we are all still congested, coughing, and tire easily. Definitely makes me wonder The flue and cold have been going through our house picking us off over the last few weeks. I haven’t worried about it because we live in a small town. Even though my wife is a teacher and I have 4 kids in school. Where we live would be an unlikely area to contract coronavirus. The reality is that the regular bugs are bad this year and teachers and students are dropping like flies around here. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:16:48 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Source tweet. It has to be way worse than anticipated, China is suiciding their economy with this. If Shanghai and Hong Kong follow, shit has hit the fan. Oddly enough after reading that link, I can’t connect to Twitter on my phone.
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:17:05 PM EDT
[#21]
and this... — \uD83D\uDE37Kyle Bass\uD83D\uDE37 (@Jkylebass) January 25, 2020 |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:19:06 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
and this... — \uD83D\uDE37Kyle Bass\uD83D\uDE37 (@Jkylebass) January 25, 2020 |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:23:14 PM EDT
[#23]
I called it in the other thread that this is a bio weapon either accidental or intentionally leaked. the chicoms wouldn't quarantine 40+ million people because 40 or so died. something bad leaked out.
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Posted: 1/25/2020 4:38:11 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
and this... — \uD83D\uDE37Kyle Bass\uD83D\uDE37 (@Jkylebass) January 25, 2020 |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 5:13:34 PM EDT
[#25]
this is getting serious now...
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Posted: 1/25/2020 5:15:47 PM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 1/25/2020 5:18:39 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote History@The_Beer_Slayer
You're in the wrong thread  .
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Posted: 1/25/2020 5:28:39 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryThat's great. 
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Posted: 1/25/2020 6:06:00 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The plot thickens... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
and this... — \uD83D\uDE37Kyle Bass\uD83D\uDE37 (@Jkylebass) January 25, 2020 The husband has authorship credit in 2003 for help identifying the SARS coronavirus. Ebola and Nipah viruses were sent to China in March 2019, from the BSL-4 lab in Canada. The scientists got PNG’d from the lab in July for policy violations. Perhaps being “extremely careless” is a policy violation. Nipah virus and coronavirus are structurally different and are categorized in different phyla. They are both associated with bats. I know, it’s an amazing set of coincidences. We probably have Chinese-affiliated SARS and Nipah scientists kicked out of level 4 labs working on bat viruses all the time. Labs are probably sending those viruses to China fortnightly. We probably have novel bat coronaviruses cross over into humans all the time, starting in Chinese cities near level 4 labs. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 7:46:36 PM EDT
[#30]
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Posted: 1/25/2020 7:51:43 PM EDT
[#31]
Report from a guy who knows a guy,who is married to another guys sister from the homeland that it is far worse then being told,,possible thousands already dead. Reports from countryside that Troops are machinegunning people trying to flee lock downs,,,uh,,who knows.
 Chinese Army - The Best Hell March 60th Anniversary HD Already state media is blaming U.S. trade sanctions. Look for Fake news to run with this also. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 8:21:35 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/25/2020 8:21:51 PM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 1/25/2020 8:48:55 PM EDT
[#34]
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Posted: 1/25/2020 8:58:19 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote History1,975 now.
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Posted: 1/25/2020 9:04:30 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
1,975 now. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/25/2020 9:06:04 PM EDT
[#37]
Now is our chance for nuclear attack on China!
 
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Posted: 1/25/2020 9:11:22 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
1,975 now. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/25/2020 9:13:48 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Now at 2,015 There was basically no information coming out the last 24 hours, and now cases jumped 700 in about 10 minutes. Currently 0913 in single time zone China... |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 10:27:36 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
WTF? I've never been to china, so I don't know if this is a cultural issue, or just an issue within that particular hospital. However, the only way that situation arises is if people stop making decisions on the fly and ignore concerns that are outside of their assigned responsibilities. She..."sought out the leader for that area and he doesn't know what to do either." Seriously woman, get a couple people to start moving corpses onto a gurney and take them to your hospitals morgue. If the morgue is full take them outside to a parking lot and close the parking lot off. Make sure to take all identification off the bodies and take pictures of the corpse. Then make a call to get some lime to cover the bodies, until they can be cremated. Does she really need a leader to tell her, or is this part of their culture that I just don't understand? I don't know maybe I'm just naive. It just seems odd that she seems to be carrying on as though she is helpless. I'm sure her co-workers on that floor are doing the exact same thing. It has been my experience that Americans are much better at thinking on their feet under these circumstances. When the chain of command breaks down or is ineffective someone is usually there to pick and the reins and start making decisions so that the 'trains keep running." Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Supposed video of bodies amidst pts waiting for treatment in Wuhan https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=kpIko_1579872346 Numbers 19 14 This is the law, when a man dieth in a tent: all that come into the tent, and all that is in the tent, shall be unclean seven days. 15 And every open vessel, which hath no covering bound upon it, is unclean. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 11:17:23 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's down to absolute basic 3000+ year old Law. Numbers 19 14 This is the law, when a man dieth in a tent: all that come into the tent, and all that is in the tent, shall be unclean seven days. 15 And every open vessel, which hath no covering bound upon it, is unclean. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 11:17:28 PM EDT
[#42]
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Posted: 1/25/2020 11:47:30 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Report from a guy who knows a guy,who is married to another guys sister from the homeland that it is far worse then being told,,possible thousands already dead. Reports from countryside that Troops are machinegunning people trying to flee lock downs,,,uh,,who knows.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=---g-f_I2yQ
Already state media is blaming U.S. trade sanctions. Look for Fake news to run with this also. |
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Posted: 1/25/2020 11:59:15 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That mortality rate is barely above what the seasonal flu registers here 
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Posted: 1/26/2020 12:03:02 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Calm your tits y'all. That mortality rate is barely above what the seasonal flu registers here Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
That mortality rate is barely above what the seasonal flu registers here |
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Posted: 1/26/2020 12:06:59 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/26/2020 12:07:00 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Calm your tits y'all. That mortality rate is barely above what the seasonal flu registers here |
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Posted: 1/26/2020 12:09:59 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When was the last time you saw 50+ million in lockdown? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
That mortality rate is barely above what the seasonal flu registers here Occam’s razor and all that. |
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Posted: 1/26/2020 12:32:20 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I was um, kinda doing my own gorilla math, scribbling gibberish, grunting when I forgot to carry the 1. They're building a temp hospital for 1000 people that should be done by Feb 1st. They should've had a temp hospital for 100,000 a week ago... Who wants to break the bad news? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: That's down to absolute basic 3000+ year old Law. Numbers 19 14 This is the law, when a man dieth in a tent: all that come into the tent, and all that is in the tent, shall be unclean seven days. 15 And every open vessel, which hath no covering bound upon it, is unclean. |
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Posted: 1/26/2020 12:36:00 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
With more people than the state of Utah. |
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