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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:04:56 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: More like the old Sci-Fi channel movies than Netflix, but I fondly remember the hey days of the X vs Y type movies!  Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I remember reading that we are in the middle of a pole reversal. Doesn't that play into the weakening of the field? Very curious about what else it might cause too. Yes the magnetic field weakens during the pole shift. It will continue to weaken until the poles actually flip. How long until they go back to full strength after the poles have flipped I do not know. Maybe a nudge from the CME train will set 'em to spinning. The newly moving magnetic fields will interact with the Earth's iron core to form a giant generator, electrifying everything in direct contact with the Earth's surface. People will be vaporized stepping off their porch into the yard or getting out of their car at the Mega Lo Mart. Supply chain and society will collapse in the pursuit of rubber muck boots and Playtex gloves. Anybody have Netflix's number?  More like the old Sci-Fi channel movies than Netflix, but I fondly remember the hey days of the X vs Y type movies! Increased solar activity would explain the elevated melanin in the Netflix versions 
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:06:49 PM EDT
[#2]
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8 (G4)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08 Serial Number: 31 Issue Time: 2024 May 10 1744 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9- Threshold Reached: 2024 May 10 1739 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:09:27 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Hmm. This could have a significant effect on the bird and squirrel population. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:21:57 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Birds aren't real. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:24:01 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: NOAA says that seven Earth-directed CMEs are now currently in transit. Source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-still-likely That is old news, it is now 8. There was another one a few minutes before your post and it is twice as big and faster than the big one yesterday and it too is a halo CME. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/latest-cmes.html Look at the duration and max speed. It is a 10 duration of liftoff, the one yesterday was 5, later upgraded to 6. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:31:25 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ohnoes, what the hell am I going to do now? ....yeah what happens when my AI sexbot gets hit with this stuff.....
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:34:11 PM EDT
[#7]
Will my XM sat radio still work? Can’t start the day without Ozzy’s Boneyard!
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:35:25 PM EDT
[#8]
G4 and Bz pretty solidly south at -47. Great Aurora conditions if you're lucky enough to be somewhere dark enough and North enough. Unfortunately a lot of Northern Europe right now doesn't get dark enough at night to see any of it. Not sure if the sheath is going to last long enough for most of us to see it in the US so hoping for a good strong flux rope to follow it. Still, 9'ish hours typically between sheath and flux rope so we'll see. (sheath is usually the stronger part of a CME arrival)
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:35:29 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ....yeah what happens when my AI sexbot gets hit with this stuff..... She goes from suck to blow!
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Posted: 5/10/2024 2:58:49 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When should I annex my neighborhood and start subjugating my neighbors? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: This guys says there is now a 12% chance we won't  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKGlGCIiyZENick |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 3:09:43 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What you keep leaving out is how much the earth’s magnetic field has decreased in strength since 2003. Also the much more modernized electrical infrastructure is more vulnerable to these storms. Lastly there is 6 storms going to hit the earth in a short time. You can not compare this to 2003. And no I don’t think this is going to take out the world’s power grid. I didn't have a chance to answer this earlier but to address this in parts: The most solid data on Earth's magnetosphere dipole strength says a decrease of 6% per century. I know the European data suggests a lot more but that hasn't been independently verified and no other data supports it. So breaking it down, 1.26% decrease in dipole strength in 20 years. I don't see that having a drastic effect on geomagnetic storm impacts, especially when dipole strength ratio between the IMF and Earth's magnetosphere is already 10 to 1. Indeed there is no measurable difference between CME impacts now than any other time in recent history so it doesn't appear to be a significant factor. Second: remember the 3 things we need for strong geomagnetic storms? solar material density, solar material velocity and negative IMF Bz. What we're missing here is velocity. In 2003 ACE measured speeds of 1850 km/s, where we're still seeing just ~700 km/s with this CME. The Bt (and more specifically Bz) will also matter of course, but it's likely not going to stay that high for most of the storm. Since the dynamic pressure is proportional to the square of the speed, a speed of 1850 km/s will have 7 times the dynamic pressure of 700 km/s so even if the solar material density ends up being anywhere near Oct 2003 levels, the velocity component just isn't there. I honestly don't know enough to go into any kind of detail about electric infrastructure beyond what I have read at a very general level but I don't see newer technology in hardware being more sensitive to geomagnetic storms, a very well-known phenomena, then more legacy hardware. Especially when historically it's more undeveloped countries who experienced permanent damage than developed ones. I'm willing to be educated here though so bring the tech. 
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Posted: 5/10/2024 3:15:06 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Cool. I hope the clouds clear out of here so I can get some photographs of this massive sunspot pattern. In case it doesn't: https://i.gyazo.com/e74001cc666f9eca825536f64813fdd1.gif I has technologies and Halliburton Weathers Machine and iPhone 16X. 
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Posted: 5/10/2024 3:19:05 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I has technologies and Halliburton Weathers Machine and iPhone 16X. https://photos.smugmug.com/Events/Celestial/i-zFHwDSb/0/m3DTBshjZ5kXJhKGv8nVK3kFfScV9ZKQZ5CmQzMr/X3/DSC_5454A2-X3.jpg Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Cool. I hope the clouds clear out of here so I can get some photographs of this massive sunspot pattern. In case it doesn't: https://i.gyazo.com/e74001cc666f9eca825536f64813fdd1.gif I has technologies and Halliburton Weathers Machine and iPhone 16X. https://photos.smugmug.com/Events/Celestial/i-zFHwDSb/0/m3DTBshjZ5kXJhKGv8nVK3kFfScV9ZKQZ5CmQzMr/X3/DSC_5454A2-X3.jpg  Attached File |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 3:20:23 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Cool. I hope the clouds clear out of here so I can get some photographs of this massive sunspot pattern. In case it doesn't: https://i.gyazo.com/e74001cc666f9eca825536f64813fdd1.gif I has technologies and Halliburton Weathers Machine and iPhone 16X. https://photos.smugmug.com/Events/Celestial/i-zFHwDSb/0/m3DTBshjZ5kXJhKGv8nVK3kFfScV9ZKQZ5CmQzMr/X3/DSC_5454A2-X3.jpg /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/No_way-942.gif Way. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 3:20:31 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I has technologies and Halliburton Weathers Machine and iPhone 16X. https://photos.smugmug.com/Events/Celestial/i-zFHwDSb/0/m3DTBshjZ5kXJhKGv8nVK3kFfScV9ZKQZ5CmQzMr/X3/DSC_5454A2-X3.jpg 
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Posted: 5/10/2024 3:38:14 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: According to the .gov SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER the earth will experience several CME impacts in the next few days. What you do with the information is up to you Thank you |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 3:56:37 PM EDT
[#17]
Im hoping for some northern lights tonight
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:05:33 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If it takes out the grid. You’ll find me in the woods doing Appalachian Guerrilla things. Act accordingly  Attached File |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:11:17 PM EDT
[#19]
How thick of aluminum panties do i have to have the neighborhood wives wear? Know everone else is embarrassed to ask.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:25:31 PM EDT
[#20]
Have we all died yet?
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:36:24 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Im hoping for some northern lights tonight If visible, will there be a specific time to see it? |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:40:01 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If visible, will there be a specific time to see it? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Im hoping for some northern lights tonight If visible, will there be a specific time to see it? https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/tips-viewing-aurora |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:40:59 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If visible, will there be a specific time to see it? After dark. Seriously: Hudson's Bay live stream  Northern Lights powered by EXPLORE.org Banff live stream  Aurora Cam |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:46:45 PM EDT
[#24]
Make ready for the storm tonight:
- Unplug all equipment from the mains. - Tie a metal chain to a ground rod that's buried at least 8' deep, wrap the chain around your waist before going to bed. - If you have a pacemaker or any other kind of medical implant, wrap aluminum foil around that part of your body, make sure it's connected to the ground chain. - Stay away from overhead power lines or other wiring on the street  . |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:55:10 PM EDT
[#25]
Fellas, it's been good to know ya.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:07:48 PM EDT
[#26]
Quoted: After dark. Seriously: Hudson's Bay live stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0i1Kg6fROgBanff live stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJdpRO0BwA8Thanks, I'll check it out tonight. Is it only tonight or does it last a couple days? |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:14:50 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I haven't heard it in a while. I wonder if we'll hear the Emergency Alert System/ /Emergency Broadcast System go off sometime this weekend. Or not at all. I hear it once a week at work. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:20:51 PM EDT
[#28]
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:24:54 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Have we all died yet? Slowly but surely. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:30:27 PM EDT
[#30]
I'm hearing from another space weather junky in Sweden that their grid is having numerous brief outages (1 to 2 min per) as thier power grid automated protection systems keep tripping. They're also seeing Aurora in India and Italy.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:31:40 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Later today NOAA will have updated model along with NASA. Every one uses their information. The consecutive impacts is what can cause problems with these CME’s. By themselves they are not strong enough to cause much disruptions but together In succession they can. I’ll update the thread later today. Regardless of the doom the northern lights should be amazing this weekend. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Well Spaceweather.com is predicting a G3 ( moderate ) then a G-4 (Strong) solar storm with radial velocity at 800 and plasma levels at 100, both at the top of the scale. Moderate and Strong seem to be in disagreement with the radial velocity and plasma levels on their charts, so i don't know what to make of that, but I admit I don't really understand all this stuff. They specifically state that although the sunspot is a Carrington Event size, the CMEs it has spit out so far and not Carrington level events. I am not sure I trust them to come out ahead of time and say they expect a Carrington level even even if they thought it was going to happen. I think they would down play it no matter what aznd it kind of sounds like that is what they are doing maybe. Later today NOAA will have updated model along with NASA. Every one uses their information. The consecutive impacts is what can cause problems with these CME’s. By themselves they are not strong enough to cause much disruptions but together In succession they can. I’ll update the thread later today. Regardless of the doom the northern lights should be amazing this weekend. My wife just mentioned seeing the Northern Lights in Missouri a few minutes ago |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:40:09 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My wife just mentioned seeing the Northern Lights in Missouri a few minutes ago I had no idea that was a thing in the daytime. Grew up in AK and used to see it somewhat regularly but my wife and kids have never seen them. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:41:16 PM EDT
[#33]
Every week we get a solar flare thread and every week no doom.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:42:56 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My wife just mentioned seeing the Northern Lights in Missouri a few minutes ago In daylight? |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:46:12 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I had no idea that was a thing in the daytime. Grew up in AK and used to see it somewhat regularly but my wife and kids have never seen them. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: My wife just mentioned seeing the Northern Lights in Missouri a few minutes ago I had no idea that was a thing in the daytime. Grew up in AK and used to see it somewhat regularly but my wife and kids have never seen them. If we see them here at all it will probably just be a glow on the northern horizon, and not in daytime. Somebody must have some info crossed up. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:49:59 PM EDT
[#36]
Thankful to God that so far, it seems okay here in VA with respect to this.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:54:22 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If visible, will there be a specific time to see it? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Im hoping for some northern lights tonight If visible, will there be a specific time to see it? I read today that the best viewing time is between 10P and 2A. Tonight and tomorrow night are our best chance to see anything in Ohio. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:56:38 PM EDT
[#38]
I'm driving tonight to hopefully catch a glimpse, about an hour drive to hopefully get clearer skies.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:58:31 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Thankful to God that so far, it seems okay here in VA with respect to this. And way too cloudy to see any sky action even if it got this low.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 5:59:20 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ....yeah what happens when my AI sexbot gets hit with this stuff..... Hold on to your monkey balls! |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:04:59 PM EDT
[#41]
is this going to fry my hard drives?
if so, do i need a lead box to protect them or something? |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:18:15 PM EDT
[#42]
A lot of the US should be able to see the Auroras if this space weather holds at current levels. People who have cameras with long exposure should be able to get some great shots.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:21:30 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If we see them here at all it will probably just be a glow on the northern horizon, and not in daytime. Somebody must have some info crossed up. Was thinking they maybe meant last night but it's been pretty cloudy here lately. I was really hoping it would destroy every smart phone and computer and permanently wreck the internet but I guess I'd settle for a good show. I haven't seen the northern lights since I moved from AK almost 30 years ago. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:24:52 PM EDT
[#44]
Guess I may as well join in on the dupe thread and let mine die
 FIRST IMPACT - Level 4 Storm |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:29:20 PM EDT
[#45]
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:31:12 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If we see them here at all it will probably just be a glow on the northern horizon, and not in daytime. Somebody must have some info crossed up. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: My wife just mentioned seeing the Northern Lights in Missouri a few minutes ago I had no idea that was a thing in the daytime. Grew up in AK and used to see it somewhat regularly but my wife and kids have never seen them. If we see them here at all it will probably just be a glow on the northern horizon, and not in daytime. Somebody must have some info crossed up. It''s not uncommon for the auroras to be visible at this time of year, in this part of the country, at this time of day, and localized entirely in a kitchen. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:32:20 PM EDT
[#47]
Fuck Spain is gone
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:32:46 PM EDT
[#48]
:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 May 10 2200 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # NOAA Ap Index Forecast Observed Ap 09 May 007 Estimated Ap 10 May 097 Predicted Ap 11 May-13 May 106-030-020 NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May Active 01/10/35 Minor storm 01/25/25 Moderate storm 35/35/15 Strong-Extreme storm 65/25/01 NOAA Kp index forecast 11 May - 13 May May 11 May 12 May 13 00-03UT 8.00 4.67 3.33 03-06UT 7.67 5.67 3.33 06-09UT 7.00 4.67 3.67 09-12UT 6.67 4.00 3.33 12-15UT 6.00 3.67 3.33 15-18UT 5.67 2.67 3.33 18-21UT 4.67 2.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.33 3.67 3.67 |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:33:31 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote Historylol yeah forgot to hit the upload bottom the first go around. But don’t worry Spain is back! |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:35:06 PM EDT
[#50]
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