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Welp, just another unedumicated monday-morning quarterbacker here, but: Seems to me there is no possible way they could line the entire e-spillway with the rocks-and-concrete mix (riprap, they're calling it?), b/c it's just TOO fucking wide. And, looks like chances favor, they ARE going to be using it again. In fact, if the inflow continues as projected, they aren't really going to have any choice in the matter. Any chance, then, they can build a berm of rocks-and-concrete mix all along the parking lot edge to at least concentrate the flow into a smaller area to be lined? Still an impossible task, I expect, but looking at the pic, it would at least cut the area that needed lining in half. At least the e-spillway flow is nice and gentle, as compared to the firehose blast on the main spillway. View Quote It was relatively gentle with a foot and a half coming over it. If 5 or 6 feet come over it will be a different story, especially if they compound it by cutting the width in half. Width is their friend. |
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I don't want to alarm anyone, but apparently this thing has a history of dropping an earthquake after a "rapid fluctuation" in water levels. <a href="http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000052.htm" target="_blank">http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000052.htm</a> Here's a question for the geologists. The crappy material a the emergency spillway... it looks OLD and weathered/decomposed to me, but is it possible some of that fracturing was not initially there when they built this sucker, and that the fracturing occurred later as a result of seismic activity? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
I don't want to alarm anyone, but apparently this thing has a history of dropping an earthquake after a "rapid fluctuation" in water levels. <a href="http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000052.htm" target="_blank">http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000052.htm</a> Here's a question for the geologists. The crappy material a the emergency spillway... it looks OLD and weathered/decomposed to me, but is it possible some of that fracturing was not initially there when they built this sucker, and that the fracturing occurred later as a result of seismic activity? From your article: At both Oroville and Koyna the major burst of seismicity did not occur upon initial filling, but occurred several years later following an unprecedented seasonal refilling in each case Seems to be exactly what's happening right now... |
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So have we bothered to find a copy of the original design standard yet? It probably specifies exactly what would have been allowed at the time. Especially in relation to the emergency spillway design,, intent, and allowable construction.
As has also been said, this was not designed to function as it is being used. While basic hydraulic s may not have changed too much in the last 60 years, construction techniques most certainly have. |
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There IS no low level intake. NONE. Option 1 USED to be "run hydro power". Stopped by: threat to power lines, back flow (and rise of river level) caused by debris and erosion of the main spillway failure (caused by lack of maintenance.) Option 2 USED to be "use bypass tunnel" (the one used during dam build.) Sopped by: they plugged it up. After an accident in 2009 (the one where the dudes almost got sucked in) the valve was damaged and they didn't fix it. (Notice a pattern yet?) They can dredge out the river and reduce flow of the main spillway (oops! can't do that!) and restart hydro assuming there isn't damage due to flooding in there. (A very big if, and a lot of work.) Or, they could use some sort of remote machines and fuck around with very high pressure tunnels and open a valve that they a) might not get closed again b) might fuck up the hydro chamber and destroy the turbines. Bottom line is, the "flex capacity" of that lake is now between 901 at top (or whatever the highest not to be up against the e-spillway is) down to 851 where the bottom of the main spillway is. The rest, they CANNOT DRAIN. And, it's still winter, and it's still raining or snowing or melting up there. And everybody else is full. And they've got huge construction problems just doing the stuff they need to keep the emergency spillway intact. They are fucked. There are going to be huge floods. No matter what. If they are lucky, they won't come at high speed in the form of a wall of water. View Quote Excellent description. |
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Reading the seismic report brings up this gem:
Simpson (1976, p. 146) noted the paradox "that if there is an indication of an impending increase in the level of seismicity, one of the obvious ways of decreasing danger downstream from the dam---the rapid emptying of the reservoir---may in fact increase the danger by triggering a further increase in the level of activity." View Quote Quite apart from dealing with the dam itself, now they are playing trampoline with the underground plates by filling it too far and then emptying it. Which for their part they can't do very much. But when it does, it can apparently cause quakes. Damned if you do, dammed if you don't. |
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So have we bothered to find a copy of the original design standard yet? It probably specifies exactly what would have been allowed at the time. Especially in relation to the emergency spillway design,, intent, and allowable construction. As has also been said, this was not designed to function as it is being used. While basic hydraulic s may not have changed too much in the last 60 years, construction techniques most certainly have. View Quote You won't find much detailed info on a dam this size. It's considered CII (critical infrastructure information) and kept fairly close hold. |
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It's my belief that's why they wanted to test the emergency spillway to see if it's viable. There's record snow levels in the Sierra's and last week's storm wasn't even that bad. The worst is coming. If the e-spill had held safely they could have shut off the main spillway and attempted something to shore it up and prevent uphill erosion. They also could have worked on removing the debris preventing them from running the hydro outlet as the e-spill empties out much further down the canal. That's what they talked about doing in one of the early press conferences. They are probably shoring up the e-spill as much as they can because there's a distinct possibility they may not be able to keep up with inflows in the coming weeks/months using the main spillway and water is going over that thing again and they want it to hold as long as possible. Just my wild ass guess. View Quote |
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Reading the seismic report brings up this gem: Quite apart from dealing with the dam itself, now they are playing trampoline with the underground plates by filling it too far and then emptying it. Which for their part they can't do very much. But when it does, it can apparently cause quakes. Damned if you do, dammed if you don't. View Quote So if there is an uncontrolled release from a weakened espillway, it could be followed by a nice earthquake... Which could further damage the dam... Nice. I'm glad I live in WI! |
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Posssible they'd like to save the hydro plant View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I found a report that says the river valve outlet was partially repaired in 2014, and tested in 2014 - 2015 up to half capacity. Since the river valve uses the same tunnels as the plant, they can not open it without further flooding to the plant due to the debri at the end of the spillway backing up the water. They use howitzers to clear avalanche build ups, why not drop some precision guided munitions on the debris build up to clear it out? Yeah, an earthquake will solve this conundrum. Posssible they'd like to save the hydro plant I'm not saying drop them on the plant. My understanding is the outflows at the base of the dam are blocked with debris that needs to be dredged out but they can't get in there because the spillway is running. They use explosives to clear beaver damns and blocked rivers all the time. Why wouldn't explosive work in this case? Honest question. If the answer is because no one can get in there, then why wouldn't precision guided munitions be an option? If the answer is because it's not that kind of blockage, then ok. |
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4kGF1nUMAEWmrh.jpg:large that is very not good. it appears the surface rock is very fractured and is failing when velocity concentrates. View Quote Lots of us already called this a while back. |
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In other news, our local reservoir, Lake Berryessa, is only 1/2" from spilling into the glory hole: <a href="https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg" target="_blank">https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg</a> View Quote I thought you were being funny calling it the Glory Hole. Then I looked it up. |
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I'm not saying drop them on the plant. My understanding is the outflows at the base of the dam are blocked with debris that needs to be dredged out but they can't get in there because the spillway is running. They use explosives to clear beaver damns and blocked rivers all the time. Why wouldn't explosive work in this case? Honest question. If the answer is because no one can get in there, then why wouldn't precision guided munitions be an option? If the answer is because it's not that kind of blockage, then ok. View Quote Blow a beaver dam and the debris breaks up and floats downstream. Rock and runoff debris, not so much. |
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I thought you were being funny calling it the Glory Hole. Then I looked it up. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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In other news, our local reservoir, Lake Berryessa, is only 1/2" from spilling into the glory hole: <a href="https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg" target="_blank">https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg</a> I thought you were being funny calling it the Glory Hole. Then I looked it up. So you just googled "glory hole" ? LOL Did you do that at work? Do update us about you chat with HR. |
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They use howitzers to clear avalanche build ups, why not drop some precision guided munitions on the debris build up to clear it out? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I found a report that says the river valve outlet was partially repaired in 2014, and tested in 2014 - 2015 up to half capacity. Since the river valve uses the same tunnels as the plant, they can not open it without further flooding to the plant due to the debri at the end of the spillway backing up the water. They use howitzers to clear avalanche build ups, why not drop some precision guided munitions on the debris build up to clear it out? Water is not compressible. Depending on the distance between the debris and the face of the dam, using explosives could cause dam failures from the shockwaves. |
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Just a general update for the Sacramento / Oroville area:
1. There was a 22 car derailment of a Union Pacific train in Elk Grove (suburban Sacramento) on Friday. UP states "flooded swamp-like conditions" likely a factor. 2. Hwy 50 in Kyburz will remain closed indefinitely due to mudslides. 3. Crews are working to stabilize a levee on the Mokelumne river that protects Tyler Island and eastern Walnut Grove. This is the shit sandwich that keeps on giving. Note: These items not directly associated with the Oroville Dam or Feather River, just all the water currently in the area. |
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In other news, our local reservoir, Lake Berryessa, is only 1/2" from spilling into the glory hole: https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg View Quote |
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So if there is an uncontrolled release from a weakened espillway, it could be followed by a nice earthquake... Which could further damage the dam... Nice. I'm glad I live in WI! View Quote If there's an earthquake, the emergency spillway will be the least of your concerns. Liquifactoon of the earthen dam however would be a very real possibility. |
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It's the same with most funding. No big dollar donor wants to hear they just gave a bunch of money to update the plumbing of and existing building - no matter how bad it needed it.... View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Neal Boortz used to say politicians get their names permanently posted on new projects, not on repairing and maintaining existing infrastructure. It's the same with most funding. No big dollar donor wants to hear they just gave a bunch of money to update the plumbing of and existing building - no matter how bad it needed it.... Vic Fazio FTW! Or FTL. Or FVF. |
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It was not on my mind at the time...
But the hillside I snuck down must've been completely covered with poison oak. I have got that shit everywhere !!! |
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Anyone have new pictures this morning showing supersack placement by the parking lot and riprap on the right side of the espillway?
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Looks like they need a permanent apron to a large culvert / bridge for the emergency spillway, since there is a road to the boat ramp. Parking lot needs to be a few feet higher so all water goes over the weir. After the road, allow it to use the channel already dug if it can.
Or, since it it the EMERGENCY spillway, and as such really shouldn't be used, fortify the front of it so that in the event it ever has to be used again, it allows for enough time to evacuate. IMO that's what it was there for in the first place. If they need an auxiliary, find another point on the shoreline and dig in an aux spillway, but I haven't looked at the map to see if there is another channel back to the river. |
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The single helicopter taking baggies of rocks reminds me of tryibg to dig an olympic sized pool with a stirring spoon. I fugured it would have been a fleet of heavy lifts. It was TWO helicopters, not one. Problem with getting the big heavies like the Sky Cranes and Chinooks their so exspensive they can't afford to have them sitting if their not in for inspection and maintainance, that said their working and those things work all over the world, they only start returning when their fire fighting contracts go into effect. I was talking with a Columbia Helicopters pilot a few years ago and asked him why they didn't fly Sky Cranes as well and he said their maintainance intensive and there are not many qualified pilots, which I noticed when their fighting fires you see them opened up and support crews looking at everything, and the fact that they sit as once the pilots hour out those things are not moving, then there is the cost. |
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Maybe Friday. Anyone know what the time of concentration is for the watershed? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I came for the collapse. When should I check back? Thursday Maybe Friday. Anyone know what the time of concentration is for the watershed? It really depends on the snowfall elevation. If it high then alot of water like last week is coming down and the lag is probably 12 hours. The latest forecast that I have seen says it will be much lower snow and while that is great it also means more snow o the ground if we get another high elevation rain event. Either way this problem is with us for a minimum of 3-4 months and even long term years possibly |
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It was not on my mind at the time... But the hillside I snuck down must've been completely covered with poison oak. I have got that shit everywhere !!! View Quote |
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That boom pump has its work cut out for it.
I wonder what mix they're running through it? |
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Good to hear. CA needs to be taken to task for all of its stupidity. Liberals in charge of infrastructure would be like having a preschool class running a war room. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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So I saw on Fox News that the federal goverment is demanding answers from the state as to how did it get to this point. I'd love to be in that meeting. Good to hear. CA needs to be taken to task for all of its stupidity. Liberals in charge of infrastructure would be like having a preschool class running a war room. I know, I'd like to hear their reasons, I mean excuses. They have a history of non compliance, little to any maintainance, and I'm sure there is another list we don't even know about, gonna be hard to blame the feds on this one. |
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If there's an earthquake, the emergency spillway will be the least of your concerns. Liquifactoon of the earthen dam however would be a very real possibility. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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So if there is an uncontrolled release from a weakened espillway, it could be followed by a nice earthquake... Which could further damage the dam... Nice. I'm glad I live in WI! If there's an earthquake, the emergency spillway will be the least of your concerns. Liquifactoon of the earthen dam however would be a very real possibility. Not really a concern. The earthen dam is enormously massive, and even substantial movement from liquifaction would be shrugged off unless we're talking an unprecedented quake in the 7.5 + range, which seems outrageously outside the bounds of probability. The quake in '75 was 5.7. Its not going to blow the dam down, but it the seiche could be interesting if the water levels are at the level of the spill crest. |
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It was not on my mind at the time... But the hillside I snuck down must've been completely covered with poison oak. I have got that shit everywhere !!! View Quote Calamine lotion is your new best friend... |
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Just a general update for the Sacramento / Oroville area: 1. There was a 22 car derailment of a Union Pacific train in Elk Grove (suburban Sacramento) on Friday. UP states "flooded swamp-like conditions" likely a factor. 2. Hwy 50 in Kyburz will remain closed indefinitely due to mudslides. 3. Crews are working to stabilize a levee on the Mokelumne river that protects Tyler Island and eastern Walnut Grove. This is the shit sandwich that keeps on giving. Note: These items not directly associated with the Oroville Dam or Feather River, just all the water currently in the area. View Quote Its that drought Jerry Brown keeps talking about. |
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