User Panel
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Model shift, but others still hold for Florida
https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL09 |
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Quoted: Appears the intensity modeling has increased quite a lot. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/381696/09L_intensity_latest_png-2537652.JPG View Quote The deeper it gets in to the warm waters in the Gulf the stronger it will get. |
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Quoted: Model shift, but others still hold for Florida https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL09_2022092412_GEFS_large.png?1664041131 https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL09 View Quote Took a shift to the west? That’s better for me. Fingers crossed. |
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Quoted: Appears the intensity modeling has increased quite a lot. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/381696/09L_intensity_latest_png-2537652.JPG View Quote Ooof. That is starting to look ugly for the Gulf coast. |
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Thing keeps moving further west at this rate Texas may need to worry, lol.
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Wow! Predictions have shifted drastically in the last 12 hours.
Why are they now predicting it to lose intensity in the gulf? |
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I suspected this might happen. Sorta depends on the northern jet stream. It’ll determine whether it shifts farther west or comes back east.
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Quoted: Wow! Predictions have shifted drastically in the last 12 hours. Why are they now predicting it to lose intensity in the gulf? View Quote Attached File |
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Quoted: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/137902/B3716B15-35B9-4D83-B9D2-490C69A97593-2537779.png View Quote It looks like it shifted back east a bit, right? |
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For the noob hurricane guy here… wife has business trip to Orlando Tuesday aft flying out Wed afternoon via MCO? Should she cancel? Models shifting west?
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Quoted: I have a cottage booked on Sanibel Island for next weekend. This better not get it cancelled. Fishing will fukin awesome just after a passing storm though. View Quote @wildboar - if all goes well I’ll be in Sanibel next weekend too. I’ll probably spend a night on the hook off the causeway before pushing into our canal by Tarpon Bay. Drop me a line…. |
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Quoted: For the noob hurricane guy here… wife has business trip to Orlando Tuesday aft flying out Wed afternoon via MCO? Should she cancel? Models shifting west? View Quote I think she should reconsider the trip. The whole of Florida seems to be at some chance of risk. We'll probably start seeing refugees here soon. |
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Quoted: For the noob hurricane guy here wife has business trip to Orlando Tuesday aft flying out Wed afternoon via MCO? Should she cancel? Models shifting west? View Quote Tuesday would be fine... but there'd be a chance the flight out would get canceled and she'd be stuck here for a couple more days. Orlando will be fine. |
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Recent model runs:
Attached File Attached File Significant differences in size and strength of the projected wind fields. And some comic relief via /pol: Attached File Looking forward to the next advisory. |
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View Quote Yes - but I prefer to watch Mike on YouTube so I don't have to look at his page And I really prefer https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ |
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Quoted: 8 PM projection just up. Still heading west. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/234839_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png View Quote I think it will be really interesting to see the morning predictions and models based on the data from the flights today. I don't wish it on anyone, but I would be lying if I didn't have done hope seeing it slip west (the gf has been saying it was going that way for sure). |
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Quoted: @wildboar - if all goes well I’ll be in Sanibel next weekend too. I’ll probably spend a night on the hook off the causeway before pushing into our canal by Tarpon Bay. Drop me a line…. View Quote Right on man. Not sure if I am trailering my boat over but if I make it I will damn sure let you know. |
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Attached File
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA 72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH |
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I like this channel for hurricane season.
[Saturday Evening] TD9 gets named Ian; Significant Hurricane Expected to impact Caribbean and U.S. |
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View Quote Levi knows his stuff. |
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Latest recon shows the system is still not stacked and a loose circulation SW of where the model suites have been initiating from.
This should mean another westward shift in the 6am track after the data has been added. The hurricane center had expected it to be forming an eye by now. |
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Looks like it hasn't really shifted West any more, but makes landfall a few hours later. Looks like I'll be riding it out in the Gulf. Windy.com is only forecasting 50 kt gusts where we are.
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