I hope you are ready to bug out.

This is the first hurricane that I will have skin in the game, just closed on a coastal property in North Carolina a couple weeks ago.

@13MIKE

What beach? A lot of us have lived in NC most of our lives and have experienced a dozen or more hurricanes, we could give you some tips if you need them.

Did you move here full time? Buy rental property/vacation home?

Shep...is that you?

And the plot thickens...

We're going to get a "windshield wiper" effect as the perpendicular landfall (?) will require the entire FL coast to remain vigilant.  A westward track over the peninsula will do little to interrupt #Dorian and it would re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico over bathtub warm waters. pic.twitter.com/Ff8qwbl1Wk

Ryan Maue  (@RyanMaue) August 28, 2019

12Z Euro.
Time to wake up South Florida!
Hello Gulf States.

We're going to get a "windshield wiper" effect as the perpendicular landfall (?) will require the entire FL coast to remain vigilant.  A westward track over the peninsula will do little to interrupt #Dorian and it would re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico over bathtub warm waters. pic.twitter.com/Ff8qwbl1Wk

Ryan Maue  (@RyanMaue) August 28, 2019

.

well and here I am in Phoenix watching this thing

this will be the 1st Hurricane since moving to Daytona Beach in 2016 that I am not in Town for



good luck everybody

These projections show the track moving closer to a second landfall in LA.

I was at Zephyrhills Walmart this morning and Publix this afternoon and neither were busy and both had plenty of water. I forgot my strawberry pop tarts though.

No line ups at gas stations either. We had the same situation for Irma. Plenty of water and gas right up until the storm hit.

not quite the same southerly track as Andrew

Tag for the fun.

my wife and i are in DC for the next few days. we fly back to west palm Saturday.  hopefully it stays long enough so we can put up shutters Saturday afternoon when we get back

How sad is it that according to FNC there are already 20,000 people without power on PR and it isn't even raining yet.  People are still hanging out at the beach like any other day and 20k are without power.  

Awesome. We just got our roof on from Michael two weeks ago. Haven't even moved back home yet.

Going to be tight but I'd say just barely enough.
At least on Saturday you'd be pretty sure whether you needed them.


NHC is pretty conservative with their estimates for earliest arrival of TS winds:

I would pick on you about your post and your username checking out but I know resources have been spread thin. Good luck!

That track where it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico

This storm is getting stronger sooner than predicted. Wonder what else they are wrong about?

yea im just hoping that they dont cancel because they dont wait their planes in that.

LOL, username is fitting.

Lawn mower starter rebuild. Just because I want to.

Congratulations, this shit habbens every year.

the strengthening is throwing forecast more than 5 days out, off.

so far, at 5 days off, the models have shown it go along the coast of ne florida, to the carolinas,
or enter central florida, and move up the center to georgia
or hit florida north of central florida, pass through and hit the panhandle.

My wife and I are scheduled to fly to San Antonio Friday am to visit with my son who is stationed at Ft. Sam.

The way I figure it, if we leave it will hit us, if we stay it will miss us.

Jesus Tap Dancing Christ.

Naples area.

Don't show that latest track to my wife. She thought for real we were gonna die in Irma.

To make her happy we just went and got cash and extra gas.

Got boards and tapcons stored for both houses.

Gonna start killing bunnies and squirrels for the freezer.  

Hopefully it stays weak.  Stay safe down there.

I type this as I still have work to be done from Hurricane Michael.  In addition to the regular preps that have been talked about (and will be talked about in the next few days), I would make these observations after having lived and worked in a Cat 5 direct hit:

Always assume the category can be 1 grade higher than what they are saying or predicting.  Michael was a great example of a hurricane that quickly worked up the scale, very quickly: Like no fucking around with stalling, wobbling or drastic course variations.  If Dorian stays in the Atlantic waters it can be bad.  If it crosses into the gulf it most likely stay bad and can get worse.

Some lesser thought about preps:

Write your insurance providers telephone claim number on your policy.   I am with a major, national insurance carrier.  I double packed my policy in two, one gallon zip lock bags and put it in my gun safe.  It would be safe there even if the house collapsed around or on top of it.  After we took the hit, and when I could finally get cell service to call my insurance company, I had policy in hand.  But no where on the policy was the number to call.  With initially no cell service, I couldn't search it on my phone either.  When we finally got to use a cell that had signal, I had to search for the number to call in my claim.  Google it now and write the claim telephone number on the front of your policy somewhere.

If you take a bad impact, be prepared for a really good chance that you will lose comms.  Conventional lines will take a huge hit.  Internet based phone lines will too.  Me and the wife use Verizon for our cells.  My work phone is Verizon.  Guess who lost all their towers and whose network was above ground?  Verizon.  It took a week to get even sketchy, weak and intermittent service back.   On the other hand, AT&T took much lees of a hit on their equipment and were useable, depending on location much quicker.   If you are tied to one provider or providers that share the same network, consider making an alternate plan now.  Best case scenario, if you have a good neighbor, check with them and see if they have a different network than you use and see if you can plan on using whoever's phones are working to make the calls to insurance companies and notification to immediate family of each others status.  Small side note here:  It took several days until I could call in my initial notice of claim.  In talking to the claims center, they were telling me to go to a motel and to go out to eat and keep the receipts as I would be reimbursed.  I explained there were no motels and places to eat.  They couldn't get it.  I asked if they had any idea of what had happened here and they said that we had been impacted by a hurricane, but they had not received that many calls on claims from our area.  The reason was obvious to me, but not to him.

Cash is king.  Seriously, have a reasonable amount of cash on hand.  Again, with a major hit, networks used by banks and businesses will be down.  Local servers could very well take a hit, they did for a lot of places here.  We had gas stations open 3 days after the storm.  Debit/Credit payments were pretty much non existent.  Cash was the only currency for most places.  We had a generator that used about 10 gallons of gas a day.  3 to 4 days of fuel will cost you around 80 to a 100 bucks if you have enough cans to go that long and if you can get it in the local area.  Most likely Gas Stations and Mom and Pop places will be the first to re open.  You will pay their prices for fuel and food items that you may need.   Have cash handy.  If possible, get receipts too for anything you buy post impact.  You can get reimbursed for a lot of things by your carrier.

Lighting:  Look at having some forms of rechargeable LED lights (rechargeable batteries are not what I am talking about).  A light source that can be recharged via a USB cord is handy as hell.  I have a small Quiglight that I use at work that is a lapel light.  It has some different settings and I used the hell out of it as a general area light when sitting around.  It stays on for about 10 minutes each time it is activated, but with an included diffuser, it made a great sitting around the table or deck light.  It could go a couple days between charges.  Something that can be recharged when you are driving your car is good.  Also look at any solar lights you have, you will be surprised at how many have on/off switches that can be turned off at dusk and turned on when you need light.  These make great lights to use to put places that you need light to walk through or sit around in.

Be prepared for the possibility of losing local TV and Radio stations.  We lost pretty much all of them before the eye hit.  It was a couple days before we got any radio stations back.  I could get a station from about 100 miles away, but they had very little information that helped, because in those first couple of days, with no local comms or radio/TV, so little info was getting out.  You may go a couple days without a lot of info.

The panic has begun.......
No gas cans or water in deland...ormond beach publix...mad house....gas lines getting longer.

Good luck

I just had a Deja Vu seeing that track forecast. Tomorrow is the anniversary of Katrina hitting N.O.

Looks like the tracks are fairly similar.

Actually, that's the track WINDY had when I looked at it this morning.

People were starting to buy water at Publix earlier, they still had plenty of water on the shelves.

No lines at gas stations either.

~Southern Palm Beach County

We've had NON STOP RAIN for 3 weeks...day after day, leaving my yard (filled with huge trees surrounding my house) soggy and wet, just waiting for high winds to blow them over. AWESOME!!!

before there is too much panic about where it will hit, or what path it will take,

it is still to far out to be making predictions on which path the system will take,

and while someone posted a model that shows it going through central florida, it is a model based on assumed conditions and I would caution people from making decisions based on it.

for example, the 06z (12z not out yet) run of the gfs shows it going into florida, and turning north, through central florida.

however, at this time, everyone in central florida and northward should be checking preparations.

5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28
Location: 18.8°N 65.5°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

Stay safe, old man.

Moving south again, oh joy.

eye is forming

Stay safe bud.

I must say, it is getting interesting.

Florida is getting boned.....Anyone taking bets on when Jim Cantore is going to set up??? Attached File

Just went to Harbor Freight and picked up a 4k Predator. They still had about half a dozen of those left, plus three 6.5ks and one 9.5k, and almost a dozen of the 3.5k inverters. Gas cans were running low.

At checkout the clerk told me it had just upgraded to Cat 1, and that I was the 46th generator she sold so far today...

For those that do not have actual HF transceivers or shortwave radios:

http://na5b.com:8901/

Not too late to get any last minute supplies from Amazon. Just make sure the shipping arrives Friday.

24 liters of Evian on the way

Ya see, this right here is one of the reasons why we love the guy. Dude tells it like it is.  

Just got back from a supply run at Publix in ~N Palm Beach County.
Water shelves were 2/3 empty and the store was pretty busy and the pace was picking up.
There were only 5 carts left up front.
I guess now with the 5 day path hitting the center of the state with a major hurricane the panic's going to spread pretty quick.