User Panel
Like usual... getting ready to assist and deploy for the storm.
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I'm on the west coast about 70 miles north of Tampa, bad thing for us that we already have a river that just fell below flood stage and our ground is saturated so it will take down tons of trees. It looks like is headed right at us on the last track.
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I'm on the west coast about 70 miles north of Tampa, bad thing for us that we already have a river that just fell below flood stage and our ground is saturated so it will take down tons of trees. It looks like is headed right at us on the last track.
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Just woke up to get ready for my night shift. I see the latest past from the hurricane hunters has a pressure down to 988. This is just starting its attack run through very favorable conditions. Anyone who is taking this lightly who is anywhere near the cone of uncertainty should rethink it. While the models will continual to shift, they always do, you may not get hit but someone will. In fact a lot of someones. For them it won't be hype.
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Ok I just got back home. Lakeland checking back in. Everything I'm posting about is on U.S. Highway 98 North in North Lakeland. Here is what I found: Circle K at Rockridge and 98 - very busy at the pumps and in store. Chevron across the street from Circle K - Open but nobody in the store or at the pumps. *scratches head* Publix at 98 and Marcum road - SLAMMED - PACKED!! Walmart at 98 and Daughtery road - same as Publix and no water, at all! Manager told me they get a truck in the morning with 35 pallets of water. Liquor store there was well stocked and only three customers, myself included. I bought seven cases of beer. Racetrac - slammed at the pumps. Harbor Freight - No generators. I'm glad I bought my Predator 2000 there a couple days ago. Home Depot - Packed, and no generators. Lowe's - No generators. She said they just sold the last one about an hour before I got there. She also said a guy from Daytona stopped in asking for them as well. She said the poor guy looked tired and desperate. I did not stop at Sam's Club. Manager of Walmart told me if you want cases of water to get there early in the morning because it will move out the door fast! End of report! View Quote They're probably gone already, but Direct Tools Outlets also stock generators... |
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We fly into Orlando Sunday at 2pm for a full week stay inside Disney. Should we go ahead and just cancel the trip now? If it grazes FL, will it still be a mess trying to get to our hotel? View Quote If you’re staying on Disney property you will be more than fine. Just booked the wife there. Last time park Was open the day after |
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Lots of stores are out of water in Marion County already, including the Sam's Club, Walmarts, and Publii. I always have at least a few cases on hand but wouldn't hurt to get more and it's kind of unnerving to know it's already gone. Planning to WaterBob the tub too if it comes this way.
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Media doing their usual hyping the shit out of this. Now screaming cat4. Not saying it can't happen but. View Quote That being said I've been here my whole life, and this is the worst setup for a labor day storm that I've seen. We can hope it doesn't happen and I do; but it looks extremely likely that some portion of the east coast of Florida is in for a world of hurt. And I don't say that lightly. |
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I'm headed down to Key West Sunday for a adults only vacation with 2 other couples. I live in Clearwater. Wondering if I should stay back or come back early.
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I'm on the west coast about 70 miles north of Tampa, bad thing for us that we already have a river that just fell below flood stage and our ground is saturated so it will take down tons of trees. It looks like is headed right at us on the last track. View Quote All the water is high around us. Retention ponds that don't normally hold water long are shallow lakes and have been for at least a year. We had record rainfall last year and I'm sure we are on track to match it. Flooding could be a big problem. |
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Gainesville FL already reporting fuel shortages. I topped of around 7:30 and the gas station was packed. Wife hit Publix & Walmart yesterday for normal groceries. Coworkers said Publix was a madhouse today.
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I'm headed down to Key West Sunday for a adults only vacation with 2 other couples. I live in Clearwater. Wondering if I should stay back or come back early. View Quote You should have a solid idea on a better track by Thursday night or Friday morning. But travelling on Sunday may be a little late and cutting it too close. |
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Quoted: On the current path Clearwater will get hit worse than Key West will. View Quote Btw, not to push panic, but if you have critical prescriptions, might be worth trying to fill em early just in case. |
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Quoted: Howdy neighbor. All the water is high around us. Retention ponds that don't normally hold water long are shallow lakes and have been for at least a year. We had record rainfall last year and I'm sure we are on track to match it. Flooding could be a big problem. View Quote |
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11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28 Location: 19.7°N 66.0°W Moving: NW at 13 mph Min pressure: 986 mb Max sustained: 85 mph https://i.imgur.com/hjCuSXt.png View Quote |
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It's going to blow if this thing makes landfall at night. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34+png/024109_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png View Quote |
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That's the most conservative chart. This is the most likely: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_most_likely_toa_no_wsp_34+png/024109_most_likely_toa_no_wsp_34.png View Quote |
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The current forecast tracks have to be wrong. I was once suddenly awoken by a screaming and drunk arfcommer on the zello channel at 4am during hurricane Matthew and was assured that the space coast is impervious to hurricanes.
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No water at Publix in Davie, no water at Walgreens in Plantation. Was able to fill up gas just fine at RaceTrac but lines are forming all around. Also picked up my CZ Scorpion Micro so it's not all bad View Quote |
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was out earlier looking for walmart clearance items....
2 different walmarts - not very busy, flashlights were down, but there were plenty still there, as well as batteries. water was still there, most of the cheap stuff was gone, there were several partial pallets of branded water left though. milk and bread was plentiful no lines at any gas stations, went to a wawa to fill up and I was like the 3rd vehicle filling up in a 20 station fueling area. as far as the hurricane intensity, most models don't do the cat 5 like the hwrf does. most stay at about a cat 3 I don't think the hurricane's path will be so far south like the gefs ensemble model runs show. the ensemble is sort of the average of 21 different models, so it gets influenced by outliers Attached File |
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Um, do I really need to tell you "yes, cancel?" View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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Which is the european model? Any weather gurus here know which letter designation it is given? ETA: Here's a link. European Model Thank you. |
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Quoted: I don't know. If any place would bust their butt to get things up and running it would be the mouse. They have their own power generation and emergency crews. And pockets deeper than the entire state of Fl. It could be a kick ass way to ride it out while the rest of us experience "The Purge" outside the holy gates of mickey View Quote |
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This has been my go-to site for many years when it comes to good data and models and maps and shit.
So far it's looking like Brevard County is going to take a direct hit , family lives on Merritt Island so yes I am very concerned. http://superscreamer.com/ |
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Predicted to go right over my house. View Quote a guy was on the phone with me today, trying to schedule a day to come see a lawnmower i have for sale. he said saturday evening would be good, if i was free. i told him "other than fighting the hurricane, i was open". he said "what hurricane"? dude had no idea any weather was even out there. i'm betting he flakes, on coming over saturday evening. |
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I'm on the west coast about 70 miles north of Tampa, bad thing for us that we already have a river that just fell below flood stage and our ground is saturated so it will take down tons of trees. It looks like is headed right at us on the last track. View Quote |
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Gainesville FL already reporting fuel shortages. I topped of around 7:30 and the gas station was packed. Wife hit Publix & Walmart yesterday for normal groceries. Coworkers said Publix was a madhouse today. View Quote |
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stopped by the zepherhills walmart on the long ride home from the range to pick up odds and ends on my shopping list. thought i would cruise by the water isle to see what the situation was like. just as i walked up 3 employees were positioning a pallet of water in the middle of the isle. it's was like flies on shit. this all while the normal location was fully stocked. i thought to myself i should probably get some more since things won't get any better until the storm blows over. in the time it took me to walk to the front of the store to get a shopping cart and walk back the pallet had been stripped clean and the employees were already rolling out another pallet. nothing spells "oh shit, this is really gonna happen" better than pallets of water being dropped in the middle of a walmart isle.
a few hours later i was hangin out with the gf while she was texting in a group chat with her fam all located in northern tampa. from what she was saying every publix and walmart in this area has been gutted and they were asking me how much i had gotten earlier in the day and if i had any to spare i told her to tell them i picked up just enough for my dog needless to say her family consists of all new york transplants who've been living here for 5+ years. ya know the type, they think their money can buy them out of any and all rough situations. they're probably freaking out because they won't be able to sip on their fuji water and they'll have to settle with "store brand" |
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This has been my go-to site for many years when it comes to good data and models and maps and shit. So far it's looking like Brevard County is going to take a direct hit , family lives on Merritt Island so yes I am very concerned. http://superscreamer.com/ View Quote |
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Quoted: the gulf is a fucking hot tub right now. holy shit if it makes it into the gulf, in the southern half of florida. a guy was on the phone with me today, trying to schedule a day to come see a lawnmower i have for sale. he said saturday evening would be good, if i was free. i told him "other than fighting the hurricane, i was open". he said "what hurricane"? dude had no idea any weather was even out there. i'm betting he flakes, on coming over saturday evening. View Quote |
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edit never mind advisory... got times messed up
on imagery, the eye had disappeared a couple of hours ago, so it's likely in an eye wall replacement cycle right now |
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