Quote History Quoted:It has happened before. I watched a video earlier (
Viva Frei with attorney Robert Barnes) where it was mentioned that judicial history is not all that great an indicator of how a judge will rule upon gaining the Supreme Court (after all, one of the things a judge has to consider when at the district or appellate level is precedent and being overruled by a higher court, neither of which hold any weight once you get to the Supreme Court). Barnes suggested that "life history," such as whether they grew up in "old money" etc., were much more reliable in predicting philosophy once on the Supreme Court, at least as far as previously "conservative" justices went (it seems to me that very few conservatives would suppress that tendency throughout a career of wildly liberal rulings, while the opposite appears to be more widespread).
Mike
ETA: This is for new appointees - while a justice might shift their philosophy over a career on the Supreme Court, I wouldn't expect a sudden reversal (except for Roberts, who seems to flip a coin at times to decide which side of a case to come down on, and even contradict his own previous opinions).
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Bets on what lifelong conservative justice will suddenly become a reliable leftist vote?
It has happened before. I watched a video earlier (
Viva Frei with attorney Robert Barnes) where it was mentioned that judicial history is not all that great an indicator of how a judge will rule upon gaining the Supreme Court (after all, one of the things a judge has to consider when at the district or appellate level is precedent and being overruled by a higher court, neither of which hold any weight once you get to the Supreme Court). Barnes suggested that "life history," such as whether they grew up in "old money" etc., were much more reliable in predicting philosophy once on the Supreme Court, at least as far as previously "conservative" justices went (it seems to me that very few conservatives would suppress that tendency throughout a career of wildly liberal rulings, while the opposite appears to be more widespread).
Mike
ETA: This is for new appointees - while a justice might shift their philosophy over a career on the Supreme Court, I wouldn't expect a sudden reversal (except for Roberts, who seems to flip a coin at times to decide which side of a case to come down on, and even contradict his own previous opinions).
Barnes is right. And consider the degree of selection bias we're up against;
-Harvard education generally required (leftist indoctrination, and either wealthy or beholden to backers)
-Lifetime of judicial service generally required (government worker from cradle to grave)
-Must appeal to individual politicians to achieve office, for many positions (favors pandering dick suckers)
-"Conservative" district courts will tend to not have as many opportunities to weigh in on conservative issues (no AWBs in Texas to strike down, for example) so determining their mindset is harder
-Must live, work, and appeal to senators in DC to serve on SCOTUS; this is perhaps even more leftist peer pressure than they felt in Hah-vahd.
It's a damn miracle we EVER find a guy like Thomas who is stubborn enough to resist.