User Panel
Quoted:
Midnight Euro run is back to predicting landfall, this run has it crushing NC and following through into VA https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_10.png http://i.imgur.com/vVeIlmZ.png 6am GFS run in close agreement https://i.imgur.com/4J0JCtM.jpg We are still a long way out but when models start zeroing in on a consensus like this, it's pretty alarming View Quote |
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As of now, looks like nc/va/md/pa will be shat on. I will suggest getting some preps if in these states. Basics for now if possible along with any needed meds, you can always rotate into regular supplies ect.
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Fuck! Fuck it, Im buying a boat. View Quote Attached File How it actually works out. Attached File Sorry in advance about your guns. |
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Model plots, very few take this out to sea. Most models aren't long range enough to project landfall from the present but do appear to follow the same pattern. https://i.imgur.com/7xqMmwf.jpg View Quote The good news is that with the cold front we have it may be pushed north/west or knock it down a notch or two. |
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I'm hoping people outside of this thread are paying attention to this and looking into preparing before all of this is confirmed.
Though I'm not that confident. |
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Don't know if we'll get it this far inland, but I'm feeling like it'll be a NC hit. At least I don't have to worry about flooding at my house, biggest concern is wind.
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I was driving back from Richmond when the not a hurricane hurricane Mathew ran over the area. Almost lost control on I-64 when I hit a huge pond near the construction at Ft. Eustis since it was dark. Rooster tails probably 30ft. in the air. Guy behind me didn't have reflexes quite as fast and plowed into the guard rail. Next day we drove down to the south part of Chesapeake. There's a Target the wife likes to go to there. We get off the exit get down to the bottom of the ramp and realize the Target parking lot is under 6 inches of water and is closed. Fine, we just start driving toward getting back on the freeway. Problem was, the farther we got from the ramp, the deeper the water was getting. It got to the point where my Jeep started gurgling. It finally dawned on me that was the tailpipe under water. We ended up driving over the median and going in reverse back to the freeway. We saw what looked like a new Jeep Grand Cherokee with water up to the windows in the intersection. That was a good indicator that we really didn't want to go that way. We also saw a Maserati abandoned in the water in the Greenbrier area. Why the fool was out in the water with an expensive car is unknown. His foolishness cost him a bundle. There was a lineup of cars on Greenbrier parkway that had stalled out just rolling down the road towards the mall. Jeep got thru fine. Reinforced the good decision on getting it. View Quote In a matter of about 90 minutes the water levels went from "water standing on the side of the road" to "water is 1/2 way up the yard to your house". Scared the shit out of me how fast it came up. The storm wasn't bad at all and didn't rain any harder than a Nor'Easter, TS or Cat 1 - stuff we deal with here ALL THE TIME. The ground had just been saturated for weeks prior due to other storms, and the area just couldn't handle it. So, I am watching IRMA like a hawk and hoping that we don't get any more rain between now and then. |
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Model plots, very few take this out to sea. Most models aren't long range enough to project landfall from the present but do appear to follow the same pattern. https://i.imgur.com/7xqMmwf.jpg View Quote |
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Monday or Tues will be more accurate, I firmly believe that it's going to damage inland about like a cat 1 would as far as west Pa. The good news is that with the cold front we have it may be pushed north/west or knock it down a notch or two. View Quote |
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Who was they guy that predicted Sandy? I want to hear his opinion.
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It's too early to tell if it will affect CONUS or the Bahamas. Or anything else. View Quote The older I get, the more these things bother me. It isn't so much the storm as the months and years of disruption that follow. We just reopened some roads from the "1000 Year Flood." That was two years ago. |
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That Maserati was on one of the side streets (Eden Way?) off of Greenbrier wasn't it? That area was still pretty flooded, and some of the side streets were still closed, when I went to work Monday. Most of the cars actually on Greenbrier had been moved by that point, but not all. Getting in and out of my neighborhood (Kempsville and Greenbrier) was interesting - having to figure out which streets were navigable. In a matter of about 90 minutes the water levels went from "water standing on the side of the road" to "water is 1/2 way up the yard to your house". Scared the shit out of me how fast it came up. The storm wasn't bad at all and didn't rain any harder than a Nor'Easter, TS or Cat 1 - stuff we deal with here ALL THE TIME. The ground had just been saturated for weeks prior due to other storms, and the area just couldn't handle it. So, I am watching IRMA like a hawk and hoping that we don't get any more rain between now and then. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I was driving back from Richmond when the not a hurricane hurricane Mathew ran over the area. Almost lost control on I-64 when I hit a huge pond near the construction at Ft. Eustis since it was dark. Rooster tails probably 30ft. in the air. Guy behind me didn't have reflexes quite as fast and plowed into the guard rail. Next day we drove down to the south part of Chesapeake. There's a Target the wife likes to go to there. We get off the exit get down to the bottom of the ramp and realize the Target parking lot is under 6 inches of water and is closed. Fine, we just start driving toward getting back on the freeway. Problem was, the farther we got from the ramp, the deeper the water was getting. It got to the point where my Jeep started gurgling. It finally dawned on me that was the tailpipe under water. We ended up driving over the median and going in reverse back to the freeway. We saw what looked like a new Jeep Grand Cherokee with water up to the windows in the intersection. That was a good indicator that we really didn't want to go that way. We also saw a Maserati abandoned in the water in the Greenbrier area. Why the fool was out in the water with an expensive car is unknown. His foolishness cost him a bundle. There was a lineup of cars on Greenbrier parkway that had stalled out just rolling down the road towards the mall. Jeep got thru fine. Reinforced the good decision on getting it. In a matter of about 90 minutes the water levels went from "water standing on the side of the road" to "water is 1/2 way up the yard to your house". Scared the shit out of me how fast it came up. The storm wasn't bad at all and didn't rain any harder than a Nor'Easter, TS or Cat 1 - stuff we deal with here ALL THE TIME. The ground had just been saturated for weeks prior due to other storms, and the area just couldn't handle it. So, I am watching IRMA like a hawk and hoping that we don't get any more rain between now and then. I'm not going to panic but if it looks like a Cat 4 or 5 is going to hit here, we're bugging out. If not, we're probably gonna be OK. |
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Bro, I'll be in Montana and Colorado, completely off the grid. This is gonna fucking SUCK either way. @USPcompact View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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@RTUtah Pepper your Angus. I'm out there the end of this month, and then again in mid-October. WB is gonna get fucked. |
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It's too early to tell if it will affect CONUS or the Bahamas. Or anything else. View Quote If it continues on that course there's little chance it won't affect the east coast at some point. |
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i'm pretty sure i'm... no, wait, i AM fucking tired of fucking hurricanes
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Who was they guy that predicted Sandy? I want to hear his opinion. View Quote Here is his take on the storm Sept 02 2017 video. THIS WEEK IN WEATHER -- HURRICANE IRMA |
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Luckily, that storm hit on a weekend. If it had hit during the work week, a lot of people might have been stranded at where they work. I met a guy in the Reno airport that was a Navy dude here. He'd gotten his house flooded. He'd asked a friend of his to get him out but the guy couldn't get there even with a jacked up truck. I'm not going to panic but if it looks like a Cat 4 or 5 is going to hit here, we're bugging out. If not, we're probably gonna be OK. View Quote |
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And there's another system to watch right behind it. NHC calling a 70% chance of formation within five days https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/310516/IMG_7170-297827.JPG View Quote |
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Most recent run of the GFS. If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png Making landfall just South of previous model run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png View Quote Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations |
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Most recent run of the GFS. If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png Making landfall just South of previous model run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png View Quote |
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Beat me to the punch. Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Most recent run of the GFS. If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png Making landfall just South of previous model run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations |
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No kidding. That track would take it over my house. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I hate that purple track. I really don't want a hurricane to obliterate it. |
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Right Now, NOBODY can say where it will land. We'll need to wait until Tuesday update when the 5 day cone paints the US. You should still prepare nonetheless. Fill up on gas and spare cans, get all your shopping done, get a pallet of water, waders, chainsaw, axe, pry bar, etc. Even if you won't need it for Irma, you may need it later. That advice sucks for people that live paycheck to mouth, but it's all I've got. View Quote |
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We had the same situation last year, same time, it was gonna kill is all, then never even hit the US.
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This storm is going to tear up something on the East Coast. The only question is where.
Right now it doesn't look like Florida is going to be hit too bad but if I lived on the coast in the Carolinas I would be starting to make some serious preparations. |
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Most recent run of the GFS. If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png Making landfall just South of previous model run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png View Quote |
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