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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:55:06 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Remember, the timeframe nuclear winter was being pushed was also the same timeframe the .gov was pushing hole in the ozone and acid rain. Nuclear war would be the biggest disaster man has known but nuclear winter is lower on the scale for me in threats, behind economic collapse, civil unrest and disease that would inevitably come from it. Don't forget the end of any space based enabler to modern society. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:57:45 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: High uncertainty and high risk. If only there was some way to remove uncertainty. Like with honest, unbiased research or something. Someday, we may have a method. Hopefully. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:57:47 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Again the whole idea is to not be predictable. The president has the flexibility to respond as he pleases. If Putin knows the response and views it acceptable loss, you kill the element of deterrence. You want him to consider all the possibilities. To be predictable is to be no deterrence at all. By your thinking, why not trade a list of targets and let him pick our response so he doesn't get butt hurt. I’m not giving you my way of thinking. You simply do not put them in a use it or lose it scenario unless you are pushing all your chips in the middle. Even if Putin DID know the response, it wouldn’t matter. You don’t respond to a single nuke strike with an overwhelming response. That’s not tactics, that madness and a childish understanding of nuclear planning and response. The movie The Day After was propaganda, not reality. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:57:59 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Don't forget the end of any space based enabler to modern society. Grumbles like Sideshow Bob... That's how you control the masses it seems. Keep them scared shitless that the world is going to end before the next commercial break. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:59:08 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Grumbles like Sideshow Bob... That's how you control the masses it seems. Keep them scared shitless that the world is going to end before the next commercial break. AOc predicted we have 12 years to live, that’s been a few years ago. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:07:02 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m not giving you my way of thinking. You simply do not put them in a use it or lose it scenario unless you are pushing all your chips in the middle. Even if Putin DID know the response, it wouldn’t matter. You don’t respond to a single nuke strike with an overwhelming response. That’s not tactics, that madness and a childish understanding of nuclear planning and response. The movie The Day After was propaganda, not reality. So you don't think MAD is a deterrent? Great. You want to be predictable but that is not how the system works. They must have no idea what we will do. You are saying we shouldn't fire everything we have. I agree. However, you don't want Putin to think we won't or he will use them. What is one city if it wins the war, right? That is mad thinking. We trained for all options not just the predictable one. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:09:45 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So you don't think MAD is a deterrent? Great. You want to be predictable but that is not how the system works. They must have no idea what we will do. You are saying we shouldn't fire everything we have. I agree. However, you don't want Putin to think that or he will use them. What is one city if it wins the war, right? That is mad thinking. We trained for all options not just the predictable one. So if you were president and we bumbled our way into committing Ground forces in Ukraine. Not a far fetched scenario. We push their shit in and are on the Russian border within a week. Putin says fuck you and launches a single ICBM targeting a single silo in Montana as a warning. What do you do? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:12:43 PM EDT
[#8]
Let the interceptors do their thing then call up Putin and laugh maniacally and then hang up.
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:13:29 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Let the interceptors do their thing then call up Putin and laugh maniacally and then hang up. For the sake of this exercise let’s pretend the decoys and maneuvers worked. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:19:16 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So if you were president and we bumbled our way into committing Ground forces in Ukraine. Not a far fetched scenario. We push their shit in and are on the Russian border within a week. Putin says fuck you and launches a single ICBM targeting a single silo in Montana as a warning. What do you do? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: So you don't think MAD is a deterrent? Great. You want to be predictable but that is not how the system works. They must have no idea what we will do. You are saying we shouldn't fire everything we have. I agree. However, you don't want Putin to think that or he will use them. What is one city if it wins the war, right? That is mad thinking. We trained for all options not just the predictable one. So if you were president and we bumbled our way into committing Ground forces in Ukraine. Not a far fetched scenario. We push their shit in and are on the Russian border within a week. Putin says fuck you and launches a single ICBM targeting a single silo in Montana as a warning. What do you do? The real test would be if Putin used tactical nukes on US or NATO troop formations or bases in Ukraine. Or just nuked Ukrainian troops and bases. A full counterstrike at that point would be suicidal. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:21:55 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think if Putin launched an attack on US soil the President would have no choice but respond in kind -- assuming of course he's lucid enough to respond -- which would then cause the Russians to reply, setting off a tit-for-tat exchange that would lead to full nuclear counterstrike. The real test would be if Putin used tactical nukes on US or NATO troop formations or bases in Ukraine. Or just nuked Ukrainian troops and bases. A full counterstrike at that point would be suicidal. See, that’s the point. You can turn off a tit for tat exchange (in theory). You can’t turn off a full exchange. I suspect the response to your scenario would be a massive NATO conventional air response but who knows. Miscalculation is what makes the entire exercise so dangerous and why we should never get to that point. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:25:08 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: For the sake of this exercise let’s pretend the decoys and maneuvers worked. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Let the interceptors do their thing then call up Putin and laugh maniacally and then hang up. For the sake of this exercise let’s pretend the decoys and maneuvers worked. SLBM depressed trajectory shot at perimeter. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:25:54 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: SLBM depressed trajectory shot at perimeter. Likely correct. Depends who is best at convincing POTUS. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:27:29 PM EDT
[#14]
Assuming we can't just kidnap him with a tictac in front of his full security entourage. Land him on a random New York skyscraper and have a serious talk about his decisions going forward.
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:29:40 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Assuming we can't just kidnap him with a tictac in front of his full security entourage. Land him on a random New York skyscraper and have a serious talk about his decisions going forward. You really think you can fly that thing? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:30:16 PM EDT
[#16]
We have toys we'll never acknowledge. A nuclear attack is as good as any reason to bring them out to play.
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:31:09 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We have toys we'll never acknowledge. A nuclear attack is as good as any reason to bring them out to play. So is misgendering someone |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:31:17 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You really think you can fly that thing? Me? No. US? Absolutely. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:32:23 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Me? No. US? Absolutely. Sorry it was a movie quote. The response should have been “you really think you can do all that bullshit you just said” |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:36:48 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So is misgendering someone Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We have toys we'll never acknowledge. A nuclear attack is as good as any reason to bring them out to play. So is misgendering someone Say less. I just want to see them officially. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:40:27 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So if you were president and we bumbled our way into committing Ground forces in Ukraine. Not a far fetched scenario. We push their shit in and are on the Russian border within a week. Putin says fuck you and launches a single ICBM targeting a single silo in Montana as a warning. What do you do? Do you want to win or do the Cut & Run Turkey Trot? I don't believe in dancing in a war. If Putin uses a tactical nuke the Patriot system has a decent chance of taking it out. Because of that, Putin won't use just one. If he is striking the front lines he is killing his own troops as well. That won't play well at home. If he goes after Kyiv, then Russia will have three fewer major cities on the map. I do expect if he is willing to go nuclear he is betting we don't have the balls to respond. That would be because we showed weakness. My presidency would make it clear that is a really bad assumption. It would be healthier if he just packed it up and went home. Under no circumstances does he get one sq. inch of Ukraine if we send in troops. If you go tit for tat you are playing his game and public opinion will crush you. In Russia, he is public opinion for the moment. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:43:16 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Do you want to win or do the Cut & Run Turkey Trot? I don't believe in dancing in a war. If Putin uses a tactical nuke the Patriot system has a decent chance of taking it out. Because of that, Putin won't use just one. If he is striking the front lines he is killing his own troops as well. That won't play well at home. If he goes after Kyiv, then Russia will have three fewer major cities on the map. I do expect if he is willing to go nuclear he is betting we don't have the balls to respond. That would be because we showed weakness. My presidency would make it clear that is a really bad assumption. It would be healthier if he just packed it up and went home. Under no circumstances does he get one sq. inch of Ukraine if we send in troops. If you go tit for tat you are playing his game and public opinion will crush you. In Russia, he is public opinion for the moment. You didn’t answer the question. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:47:41 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: China is almost an impossible problem to solve militarily now. A lot of people equate Russias ineptitude to what is thought to be Chinese ineptitude. That’s a mistake. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Are we though, peer on peer? I mean, we do have Deid a Zidor or however it's spelled off the top of my head---JDAM Arc Light, Lol---but we haven't fought a war in the last 50 years where we haven't had air supremacy, fires supremacy if it was really important to us, complete signals freedom to emit and communicate how and where we want, etc .. None of that will likely be true with China. I dunno. Naval combat with missiles has a way of having really bad surprises come up in the first blows: Eliat, Sheffield Moskva, LOFL... Guess we'll see. China is almost an impossible problem to solve militarily now. A lot of people equate Russias ineptitude to what is thought to be Chinese ineptitude. That’s a mistake. China has to be learning a LOT in Ukraine about what works, what doesn't and major how to against western weapons. Knowledge that would have cost them time and blood to learn in a war and we're give it to them. No, actually we're paying for their learning. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:50:51 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ... I'm no expert, either. But as far as we can know, there appears to be the possibility of a "nuclear autumn" that lasts a few days or weeks or a nuclear winter that kills billions. And it all depends on what (as yet unproven) assumptions you plug into the model. True - but it doesn't take a large temperature change to screw up the global wheat crop, for example. And that's not counting on any issue from fallout contaminating more of the food supply. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:51:13 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You really think you can fly that thing? 
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:51:34 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I saw an ad for a toilet that was several thousand dollars the other day. Can't remember the brand. The lid opened automatically as you approached. That was cool I suppose. It had lights too. Toto bidets. Join the master race. 
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:52:05 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sorry it was a movie quote. The response should have been "you really think you can do all that bullshit you just said" 
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Posted: 9/5/2023 5:58:58 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I am also in the nuclear winter is an overblown threat. Camp. That said I really wouldn't rule out the possibility that Russia has or is working on some of those salted doomsday devices. I think the North Koreans might try to make one as well. But they have some resource constraints. The math doesn't really work out for a salted doomsday device. There are some discussions I've read which point out that there's just not that much stuff you can cram into a warhead, have it be irradiated by the explosion that enough gets transmutated into what you want, and then falling out. There just isn't enough material. It's much easier to build a dirty weapon and have it fused for maximum fallout. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:01:42 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sorry it was a movie quote. The response should have been “you really think you can do all that bullshit you just said” Always a good question to ask in a military context. "We are now in year 4 of what was supposed to be a one week long police action." |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:05:56 PM EDT
[#30]
In regards to the readiness of the Russian nuclear arsenal: I don't want to infer that their stuff wouldn't work, but the CTBT really made things very difficult on all nations that have nukes. You can't test to criticality in anything. The US weapons labs are now focused on a crapload of seriously advanced testing to ensure that the warheads still work, are still reliable, and are still safe. Checking the explosive for cracks, deterioration, refining the pits of weapons that have been in storage for years, the tritium replenishment, the electrical subsystems, etc. etc. The US has resources any other country can only dream of, and I simply can't see the Russians having the wherewithal to pull off something similar. Even if you make the point that the Russians are being more diligent in regard to their nukes as they are with the rest of their military, I can't imagine them doing anywhere near the job that our guys are.
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:07:26 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: China has to be learning a LOT in Ukraine about what works, what doesn't and major how to against western weapons. Knowledge that would have cost them time and blood to learn in a war and we're give it to them. No, actually we're paying for their learning. We are in the beginning stages of the drone wars. Or clone wars for the SW people |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:07:52 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You didn’t answer the question. If he targets American soil, you can bet your ass it won't be tit-for-tat. He will be missing three cities. Again as I said you play the tit-for-tat you are playing his game. He has mobile launchers. He won't go for just one silo. His missiles aren't that accurate. He can't guarantee a hit. We can't miss. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:08:14 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: @ FlyNavy75 We can launch one or all or anything in between. The idea is to make Putin understand whatever our response is, Russia is going to pay dearly. He can not be allowed to gamble it will be tit for tat. The fear of the unpredictable is part of how it works. We can target whatever we want and he can't stop it. The primary goal is deterrence. If everyone is convinced the consequences are not worth the cost, we did our job. And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. That's the problem with where it looks like Ukraine is going and the US/NATO involved driving Russia back towards the Russian border. I think there's a good a tactical nuke or two, maybe more would be used. Now what? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:08:59 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If he targets American soil, you can bet your ass it won't be tit-for-tat. He will be missing three cities. Again as I said you play the tit-for-tat you are playing his game. He has mobile launchers. He won't go for just one silo. His missiles aren't that accurate. He can't guarantee a hit. We can't miss. Ok great, he is missing three cities. Now so are we. Now what? What’s next? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:12:51 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Again the whole idea is to not be predictable. The president has the flexibility to respond as he pleases. If Putin knows the response and views it acceptable loss, you kill the element of deterrence. You want him to consider all the possibilities. To be predictable is to be no deterrence at all. By your thinking, why not trade a list of targets and let him pick our response so he doesn't get butt hurt. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. Again the whole idea is to not be predictable. The president has the flexibility to respond as he pleases. If Putin knows the response and views it acceptable loss, you kill the element of deterrence. You want him to consider all the possibilities. To be predictable is to be no deterrence at all. By your thinking, why not trade a list of targets and let him pick our response so he doesn't get butt hurt. You do know who our president is, done you? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:15:02 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m not giving you my way of thinking. You simply do not put them in a use it or lose it scenario unless you are pushing all your chips in the middle. Even if Putin DID know the response, it wouldn’t matter. You don’t respond to a single nuke strike with an overwhelming response. That’s not tactics, that madness and a childish understanding of nuclear planning and response. The movie The Day After was propaganda, not reality. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Again the whole idea is to not be predictable. The president has the flexibility to respond as he pleases. If Putin knows the response and views it acceptable loss, you kill the element of deterrence. You want him to consider all the possibilities. To be predictable is to be no deterrence at all. By your thinking, why not trade a list of targets and let him pick our response so he doesn't get butt hurt. I’m not giving you my way of thinking. You simply do not put them in a use it or lose it scenario unless you are pushing all your chips in the middle. Even if Putin DID know the response, it wouldn’t matter. You don’t respond to a single nuke strike with an overwhelming response. That’s not tactics, that madness and a childish understanding of nuclear planning and response. The movie The Day After was propaganda, not reality. You do know who we have in the White House, right? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:21:06 PM EDT
[#37]
Putin threatens us with nukes less often than some of our elected representatives. Maybe they'll put one up Swalwells' backside.
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:24:39 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You do know who our president is, done you? Yes, but he asked if I was president. 
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:29:30 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Good. Let’s settle this once and for all. let's build something we can overload moscows abm defense with first. if they fafo I want that town glassed so you can see the reflection from the moon. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:31:55 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ok great, he is missing three cities. Now so are we. Now what? What’s next? So you want to cut and run? I told you I fight to win. Putin can not be allowed to win or you give him all of Europe. If you cave he won't stop. The concept of MAD is to be so unpredictable and so convincing, that Putin believes he can't win in the end. If you can't do that, you are the wrong man for the job. This is like a game of poker where everyone has a shitty hand. We can not respond conventionally. We have proven we can't sustain that and he now knows it. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:32:55 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in its current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... Well just great, the Nazis will out live us and get their 1000 year reich after all
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:34:03 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @ FlyNavy75 We can launch one or all or anything in between. The idea is to make Putin understand whatever our response is, Russia is going to pay dearly. He can not be allowed to gamble it will be tit for tat. The fear of the unpredictable is part of how it works. We can target whatever we want and he can't stop it. The primary goal is deterrence. If everyone is convinced the consequences are not worth the cost, we did our job. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Doesn’t work that way. Our doctrine isn’t to respond to one nuke with an all out launch. @ FlyNavy75 We can launch one or all or anything in between. The idea is to make Putin understand whatever our response is, Russia is going to pay dearly. He can not be allowed to gamble it will be tit for tat. The fear of the unpredictable is part of how it works. We can target whatever we want and he can't stop it. The primary goal is deterrence. If everyone is convinced the consequences are not worth the cost, we did our job. Will they be able to wake up Joe or get him off the beach to allow a launch? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:34:55 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What the war itself didn’t kill, the follow on economic collapse, starvation and plagues will. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... What the war itself didn’t kill, the follow on economic collapse, starvation and plagues will. Everything I have read about a nuclear exchange says the ones killed first are the lucky ones. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:39:29 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I assume it has some type of brain probe deal like in the Matrix....I just need to think what I want it to do. I mean the greys have always been kinda proby. Plus it must have some type of isolation field for the pilot cause those damn things pull some Gs. What could cause water to boil at sea level without heat? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:39:54 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: From Russia? Nope. Aegis hitting some shit NK ICBM as it’s goes up is much different than targeting maneuvering warheads with decoys from different trajectories. There is nothing we could do to stop a Russian nuclear attack if Putin pushed that button right now. Not a thing. Unless there is something we don’t know about, which obviously wouldn’t be posted here. Maybe we have sharks with laser beams. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: MAD is dead and we can and will stop individual launches. From Russia? Nope. Aegis hitting some shit NK ICBM as it’s goes up is much different than targeting maneuvering warheads with decoys from different trajectories. There is nothing we could do to stop a Russian nuclear attack if Putin pushed that button right now. Not a thing. Unless there is something we don’t know about, which obviously wouldn’t be posted here. Maybe we have sharks with laser beams.  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:43:53 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are in the beginning stages of the drone wars. Or clone wars for the SW people Until the war happens to be over the source of ICs. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:44:34 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A rail based system, some tunnels, some improved MIRVs and improved reliability and accuracy. If I were king that’s what I’d push for. I like semi trailers more. about 500 scattered on the interstate system. plain white trailers refer and dry van. change tractors now and then and switch routes. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:46:16 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So you want to cut and run? I told you I fight to win. Putin can not be allowed to win or you give him all of Europe. If you cave he won't stop. The concept of MAD is to be so unpredictable and so convincing, that Putin believes he can't win in the end. If you can't do that, you are the wrong man for the job. This is like a game of poker where everyone has a shitty hand. We can not respond conventionally. We have proven we can't sustain that and he now knows it. MAD is dead. (Mostly their) Ballistic is dead. How does that change your calculus? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:48:23 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Everything I have read about a nuclear exchange says the ones killed first are the lucky ones. I have a manual can opener. I'll be Just. Fine. 
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Posted: 9/5/2023 6:49:46 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: let's build something we can overload moscows abm defense with first. if they fafo I want that town glassed so you can see the reflection from the moon. The Russian ABM systems are busy right now with Ukrainian drones |
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