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Once again, are you saying the Ukrainians will be able to do anything with the city either when Russia can flatten it at will?
JFC, stop snorting the copium. Kherson is effectively a no-man's land; as long as Russia holds the other side of the river it is Ukrainian in name only.
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Russia's inability to flatten and take Bakhmut is the key indicator of Russia's artillery depletion.
They have been trying for months to take it with no success. They have not been able to flatten it block by block like they did Mariupol - despite Bakhmut being a fraction of the size.
At its peak in late spring / early summer, Russia was firing 50 to 60k shells per day. Estimates now are down to 10 to 20k.
Will Russia completely run out? No, they continue to make more at a lower rate. They can and will continue to use tanks firing 125mm as substitutes as both sides seem to agree Russia has lots of this left. This has some major trade-offs though, as range is reduced and the wear on the barrels will quickly be significant.
But they appear to have lost the ability for the types of city leveling volume they used on Mariupol and would be needed to retake Kherson (even ignoring the river crossing aspect).
The parallel to Snake island made two pages back is actually a good one. Russia took them early in the war but lost them, and their losses/depletion plus geography make the chances of Russia retaking them essentially zero. With Ukraine's demonstrated anti-ship capabilities, as well as the prospect of harpoon missiles, and the loss of the Moskva - Russia simply cannot project naval power that far from Crimea and that close to Ukrainian controlled coastline.
Why evacuate people from Kherson? Because it's safer to do so, they have the ability to do it, it reduces civilian casualties; but also because between Russian looting and sabotage when they left and ongoing infrastructure attacks, heat and power in the city is almost certainly in worse shape than anywhere else in the country and this is winter.