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Posted: 1/24/2020 5:52:04 PM EDT
[#1]
Possibly in SE Michigan
two people in Washtenaw County and one in Macomb County sent for testing https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/state-sends-three-possible-cases-of-coronavirus-in-se-michigan-to-cdc-for-testing |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 5:52:49 PM EDT
[#2]
OMG ITS LIKE SARS 2.0!
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Posted: 1/24/2020 5:55:16 PM EDT
[#3]
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Why is it that there are no reports of children being effected by 2019-ncov? Seems like if it effects people with compromised immune systems it should effect young children as well but so far it doesn’t look like it is. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 5:55:52 PM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 5:56:49 PM EDT
[#5]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:00:34 PM EDT
[#6]
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Totally serious when I say that a Chinese guy with a cough, looking like he can barely move, just sat down next to me on the plane to LAX. That's it. I'm dead. It has been a good life. Fuuuuu....   Attached File |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:13:07 PM EDT
[#7]
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I am offended by your none offense position 
Me, I think there is something to be concerned about. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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This is the thread head in the sand arfcommers show their stupidity I need to know if I am offended or not.
Me, I think there is something to be concerned about. They may fool themselves [Americans' Favorite Pastime] to comfort themselves, so they can get thru their day. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:16:40 PM EDT
[#8]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:18:12 PM EDT
[#9]
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OMG ITS LIKE SARS 2.0! |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:19:59 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:20:49 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
China puts millions under lockdown, people are turned away at the hospitals due to overcrowding, starts building a brand new hospital and intends to complete it in 16 days -- to contain Wuhan coronavirus | DW News  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltcV3Q-1ztw |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:21:42 PM EDT
[#12]
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Coronavirus is nothing to mickey mouse around with......  Mr Flibble | Red Dwarf | BBC Comedy Greats |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:23:24 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So it’s got what, 2% fatality rate? Big fucking whoop. Those that currently are confirmed to have the virus that are neither recovered nor dead are not counted as they could live or die. As more recover or die over time you will get a more accurate figure. So if you have 100 confirmed cases and 40 are now dead and 60 are now recovered, that’s a 40% fatality rate. If you have 100 confirmed cases, 20 recovered, 20 died, 60 are neither recovered nor dead that’s a 50% fatality rate not a 20% fatality rate. If you have 1000 confirmed cases and 40 died but the other 960 have neither recovered nor died, that doesn’t make the death rate 4%. Those other 960 could still either die or recover. You don’t know and can’t count them until it happens. So in this instance you could not calculate a fatality rate. That’s the way I understood the general explanation. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:24:21 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Why is it that there are no reports of children being effected by 2019-ncov? Seems like if it effects people with compromised immune systems it should effect young children as well but so far it doesn’t look like it is. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:27:28 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The way it prevents the spread is by allowing precious resources to be focused where they are needed: 1. In hospital there are limited isolation rooms, so you don't want to isolate suspected cases forever, you want to confirm and isolate or rule out and make space. 2. Public health personnel are limited so if you want to track contacts the infected had so you can monitor/quarantine to limit spread, you want to make sure you are not chasing false cases. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: I'm not sure the rapid test will help prevent the spread, but it damn sure will help track it faster and provide better intel. Right now every person who has been to Wuhan, a city bigger than Los Angeles, in the past month and has any symptoms is automatically being treated as a suspected potential case. Most of these people are likely not infected with nCoV, but until we can confirm that even the suspicion of another new case increases tension and panic. 1. In hospital there are limited isolation rooms, so you don't want to isolate suspected cases forever, you want to confirm and isolate or rule out and make space. 2. Public health personnel are limited so if you want to track contacts the infected had so you can monitor/quarantine to limit spread, you want to make sure you are not chasing false cases. 
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:28:46 PM EDT
[#16]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 6:40:50 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Somebody said in another thread that you take the number of confirmed with the virus that have died and the number confirmed with the virus that have now recovered to get the fatality rate. Those that currently are confirmed to have the virus that are neither recovered nor dead are not counted as they could live or die. As more recover or die over time you will get a more accurate figure. So if you have 100 confirmed cases and 40 are now dead and 60 are now recovered, that’s a 40% fatality rate. If you have 100 confirmed cases, 20 recovered, 20 died, 60 are neither recovered nor dead that’s a 50% fatality rate not a 20% fatality rate. 6 If you have 1000 confirmed cases and 40 died but the other 960 have neither recovered nor died, that doesn’t make the death rate 4%. Those other 960 could still either die or recover. You don’t know and can’t count them until it happens. So in this instance you could not calculate a fatality rate. That’s the way I understood the general explanation. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
So it’s got what, 2% fatality rate? Big fucking whoop. Those that currently are confirmed to have the virus that are neither recovered nor dead are not counted as they could live or die. As more recover or die over time you will get a more accurate figure. So if you have 100 confirmed cases and 40 are now dead and 60 are now recovered, that’s a 40% fatality rate. If you have 100 confirmed cases, 20 recovered, 20 died, 60 are neither recovered nor dead that’s a 50% fatality rate not a 20% fatality rate. 6 If you have 1000 confirmed cases and 40 died but the other 960 have neither recovered nor died, that doesn’t make the death rate 4%. Those other 960 could still either die or recover. You don’t know and can’t count them until it happens. So in this instance you could not calculate a fatality rate. That’s the way I understood the general explanation. If you just counted the death rate from any other flu of the ones sick enough to go to a hospital, the death rate would much, much higher. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:10:46 PM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:15:06 PM EDT
[#19]
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Or SHOT. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Second confirmed case in Chicago. We should start to see secondary cases with no travel to china very soon. maybe we are already. People there are running down their immune system partying all day and night, handling all that dirty ass money, chips, touching cards, dice, machines etc. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:15:18 PM EDT
[#20]
Copypasta from the PDF linked above from
• A total of 846confirmed cases have been reported for novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)globally; • Of the 846cases reported, 830 cases were reported from China; • Of these 11 confirmed cases, 10 had travel history to Wuhan • One confirmed case in Vietnam had no travel history to any part of China but was a family member of a confirmed case who visited Wuhan. This suggests an instance of human to human transmission that occurred in Vietnam • Of the 830 confirmed cases in China, 375 cases were confirmed from Hubei Province • Of the 830 cases,177cases have been reported as severely ill • Twenty-five deaths have been reported to date • On 24 January 2020,the number of reported confirmed cases of 2019-nCoVhas increased by265cases since the last situation report published on 23 January 2020,including China which reported additional 259 confirmed cases. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:18:52 PM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:22:23 PM EDT
[#22]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:23:33 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
OMG ITS LIKE SARS 2.0! |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:35:09 PM EDT
[#24]
The problem is that the Chinese numbers are demonstrably bullshit, and we can’t properly estimate fatality and infection rates until the virus progresses in a modern Western nation with a free press and a modern health infrastructure. Given the up to two week incubation period, we may not have representative numbers for that calculation for another three weeks or more. But decisions based on those putative fatality rates need to be made now.
The Chinese government is going to manage to kill even more than their own citizens this time. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:47:17 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Somebody said in another thread that you take the number of confirmed with the virus that have died and the number confirmed with the virus that have now recovered to get the fatality rate. Those that currently are confirmed to have the virus that are neither recovered nor dead are not counted as they could live or die. As more recover or die over time you will get a more accurate figure. So if you have 100 confirmed cases and 40 are now dead and 60 are now recovered, that’s a 40% fatality rate. If you have 100 confirmed cases, 20 recovered, 20 died, 60 are neither recovered nor dead that’s a 50% fatality rate not a 20% fatality rate. If you have 1000 confirmed cases and 40 died but the other 960 have neither recovered nor died, that doesn’t make the death rate 4%. Those other 960 could still either die or recover. You don’t know and can’t count them until it happens. So in this instance you could not calculate a fatality rate. That’s the way I understood the general explanation. The data I used for that is 18ish hours old. Just FYI  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:52:33 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Based on that, the fatality rate is 42% The data I used for that is 18ish hours old. Just FYI https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/284035/chart_1-24_PNG-1247866.JPG Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Somebody said in another thread that you take the number of confirmed with the virus that have died and the number confirmed with the virus that have now recovered to get the fatality rate. Those that currently are confirmed to have the virus that are neither recovered nor dead are not counted as they could live or die. As more recover or die over time you will get a more accurate figure. So if you have 100 confirmed cases and 40 are now dead and 60 are now recovered, that’s a 40% fatality rate. If you have 100 confirmed cases, 20 recovered, 20 died, 60 are neither recovered nor dead that’s a 50% fatality rate not a 20% fatality rate. If you have 1000 confirmed cases and 40 died but the other 960 have neither recovered nor died, that doesn’t make the death rate 4%. Those other 960 could still either die or recover. You don’t know and can’t count them until it happens. So in this instance you could not calculate a fatality rate. That’s the way I understood the general explanation. The data I used for that is 18ish hours old. Just FYI https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/284035/chart_1-24_PNG-1247866.JPG |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:55:17 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Why is it that there are no reports of children being effected by 2019-ncov? Seems like if it effects people with compromised immune systems it should effect young children as well but so far it doesn't look like it is. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:55:31 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Where are you getting that data? |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 7:59:15 PM EDT
[#29]
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John Hopkins is putting out an excel document every 12 hours. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Where are you getting that data? |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:01:50 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Based on that, the fatality rate is 42% The data I used for that is 18ish hours old. Just FYI https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/284035/chart_1-24_PNG-1247866.JPG It’s also reported the first patient was not at the wet market. https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620301835.pdf |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:02:00 PM EDT
[#31]
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If the 58% that have recovered only survived because they were in ICU care... Damn. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Quoted: Where are you getting that data? ICU beds are typically scarce on a good day, heap this shit on top of it and it could get bad fast. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:03:22 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If the 58% that have recovered only survived because they were in ICU care... Damn. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:04:33 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
John Hopkins is putting out an excel document every 12 hours. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Where are you getting that data?
Seriously, thanks for posting. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:07:06 PM EDT
[#34]
Appears to be well contained
Link This is a John Hopkins generated map. Graph on the left looks like the space shuttle taking off. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:07:41 PM EDT
[#35]
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It looks like the number is going to continue to expand with no immediate end in sight. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:09:09 PM EDT
[#36]
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It’s likely already quite a bit higher than that. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:10:34 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Appears to be well contained
Link This is a John Hopkins generated map. Graph on the left looks like the space shuttle taking off. Ought to be fun to watch.....until the internet goes dark...and the power goes out....and the food runs out
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:12:30 PM EDT
[#38]
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Good link...just bookmarked that. Ought to be fun to watch.....until the internet goes dark...and the power goes out....and the food runs out
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Appears to be well contained
Link This is a John Hopkins generated map. Graph on the left looks like the space shuttle taking off. Ought to be fun to watch.....until the internet goes dark...and the power goes out....and the food runs out
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:15:07 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Good link...just bookmarked that. Ought to be fun to watch.....until the internet goes dark...and the power goes out....and the food runs out
What do you make of this? Your tone seems to have changed in the last 24 hours. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:15:32 PM EDT
[#40]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:19:25 PM EDT
[#41]
We got one at Mtsu in middle tn apparently
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:25:36 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We got one at Mtsu in middle tn apparently |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:32:27 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted:
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Good link...just bookmarked that. Ought to be fun to watch.....until the internet goes dark...and the power goes out....and the food runs out
What do you make of this? Your tone seems to have changed in the last 24 hours. In full disclosure, I am neither a clinician nor a scientist, so a lot of what is discussed in that article is far beyond my capability to assess. At a glance, it appears well structured, and in a nut shells seems to suggest that this virus presents like SARS, with a likelihood of the patient requiring acute ICU-level interventions. Interestingly, they cite data from patients admitted dating back to mid-December...so clearly this was on their radar for over a month nowperhaps more. Regarding my tone, I honestly don't know what to think. I spoke with some colleagues in the public health sector in the last 24 hours and we all agreed that based on the modeling we have all understood for the past few decadesif an outbreak was going to be 'the one', this one really looks like a textbook examplealmost too perfect.like a movie script. For now I am monitoring what information is out theretaking it all with a massive dose of saltand waiting for credible data. Like any other dynamic incident, early information is rarely accurate, and not worth losing sleep over. That said, this isn't nothingthe Chinese are making a point to at least engineer the appearance that they are initiating a massive responseso they clearly think the world is watching them. I suspect we will know more in the coming daysand I also suspect that if this truly is a real threat, it won't take much longer than that to have a good idea of the trajectory. If the incubation period is really as long as 2-weeks, this bug is everywhere alreadyquarantine efforts are a waste of energy and resources. To be continued |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:34:42 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Based on that, the fatality rate is 42% The data I used for that is 18ish hours old. Just FYI https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/284035/chart_1-24_PNG-1247866.JPG If so, is there any chance you’d be willing to reverse the X axis? Reading time backwards (right to left) is messing me up.
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:37:24 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Appears to be well contained
Link This is a John Hopkins generated map. Graph on the left looks like the space shuttle taking off.
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:38:04 PM EDT
[#46]
the question with the incubation period is, how much of that period is a person contagious...
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:40:21 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That will overwhelm our healthcare system pretty quickly. ICU beds are typically scarce on a good day, heap this shit on top of it and it could get bad fast. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:43:07 PM EDT
[#48]
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We only have around 62,000 mechanical ventilators nation wide. So, factor in the ones in use and down for maintenance. If this thing blows up, it will get sporty rather quickly. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: That will overwhelm our healthcare system pretty quickly. ICU beds are typically scarce on a good day, heap this shit on top of it and it could get bad fast. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:45:29 PM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:45:37 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We only have around 62,000 mechanical ventilators nation wide. So, factor in the ones in use and down for maintenance. If this thing blows up, it will get sporty rather quickly. |
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