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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:45:54 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
@Curry In full disclosure, I am neither a clinician nor a scientist, so a lot of what is discussed in that article is far beyond my capability to assess. At a glance, it appears well structured, and in a nut shells seems to suggest that this virus presents like SARS, with a likelihood of the patient requiring acute ICU-level interventions. Interestingly, they cite data from patients admitted dating back to mid-December...so clearly this was on their radar for over a month nowperhaps more. Regarding my tone, I honestly don't know what to think. I spoke with some colleagues in the public health sector in the last 24 hours and we all agreed that based on the modeling we have all understood for the past few decadesif an outbreak was going to be 'the one', this one really looks like a textbook examplealmost too perfect.like a movie script. For now I am monitoring what information is out theretaking it all with a massive dose of saltand waiting for credible data. Like any other dynamic incident, early information is rarely accurate, and not worth losing sleep over. That said, this isn't nothingthe Chinese are making a point to at least engineer the appearance that they are initiating a massive responseso they clearly think the world is watching them. I suspect we will know more in the coming daysand I also suspect that if this truly is a real threat, it won't take much longer than that to have a good idea of the trajectory. If the incubation period is really as long as 2-weeks, this bug is everywhere alreadyquarantine efforts are a waste of energy and resources. To be continued One last call out. The incubation period seems to be 5.6 days. Based on 37 travel cases. https://github.com/jabacker/nCoV-2019/blob/master/Incubationperiod_2019nCoV.pdf Edit: which is wayyy better than two weeks. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:46:43 PM EDT
[#2]
Will probably be thousands by next week.
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:47:51 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
the question with the incubation period is, how much of that period is a person contagious... A person isn't likely to be visibly symptomatic until the virus has incubated...if that takes a week or two, they wont know they are carrying it. That said, if this is like other infectious disease, it isn't likely to be spread by asymptomatic carriers. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:52:44 PM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:56:29 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:56:38 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I had no idea there were that few... |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 8:59:32 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
@Curry In full disclosure, I am neither a clinician nor a scientist, so a lot of what is discussed in that article is far beyond my capability to assess. At a glance, it appears well structured, and in a nut shells seems to suggest that this virus presents like SARS, with a likelihood of the patient requiring acute ICU-level interventions. Interestingly, they cite data from patients admitted dating back to mid-December...so clearly this was on their radar for over a month nowperhaps more. Regarding my tone, I honestly don't know what to think. I spoke with some colleagues in the public health sector in the last 24 hours and we all agreed that based on the modeling we have all understood for the past few decadesif an outbreak was going to be 'the one', this one really looks like a textbook examplealmost too perfect.like a movie script. For now I am monitoring what information is out theretaking it all with a massive dose of saltand waiting for credible data. Like any other dynamic incident, early information is rarely accurate, and not worth losing sleep over. That said, this isn't nothingthe Chinese are making a point to at least engineer the appearance that they are initiating a massive responseso they clearly think the world is watching them. I suspect we will know more in the coming daysand I also suspect that if this truly is a real threat, it won't take much longer than that to have a good idea of the trajectory. If the incubation period is really as long as 2-weeks, this bug is everywhere alreadyquarantine efforts are a waste of energy and resources. To be continued Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Good link...just bookmarked that. Ought to be fun to watch.....until the internet goes dark...and the power goes out....and the food runs out
 What do you make of this? Your tone seems to have changed in the last 24 hours. In full disclosure, I am neither a clinician nor a scientist, so a lot of what is discussed in that article is far beyond my capability to assess. At a glance, it appears well structured, and in a nut shells seems to suggest that this virus presents like SARS, with a likelihood of the patient requiring acute ICU-level interventions. Interestingly, they cite data from patients admitted dating back to mid-December...so clearly this was on their radar for over a month nowperhaps more. Regarding my tone, I honestly don't know what to think. I spoke with some colleagues in the public health sector in the last 24 hours and we all agreed that based on the modeling we have all understood for the past few decadesif an outbreak was going to be 'the one', this one really looks like a textbook examplealmost too perfect.like a movie script. For now I am monitoring what information is out theretaking it all with a massive dose of saltand waiting for credible data. Like any other dynamic incident, early information is rarely accurate, and not worth losing sleep over. That said, this isn't nothingthe Chinese are making a point to at least engineer the appearance that they are initiating a massive responseso they clearly think the world is watching them. I suspect we will know more in the coming daysand I also suspect that if this truly is a real threat, it won't take much longer than that to have a good idea of the trajectory. If the incubation period is really as long as 2-weeks, this bug is everywhere alreadyquarantine efforts are a waste of energy and resources. To be continued . |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:02:17 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryGreat!
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:04:15 PM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:04:26 PM EDT
[#10]
Anyone else remember playing Plague Inc?
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:06:11 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone else remember playing Plague Inc? |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:07:07 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryLeading US health experts predicted a coronavirus could kill tens of millions of people in a chilling warning three months before the deadly outbreak in China. Scientists at the prestigious Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security modeled a hypothetical pandemic on a computer as part of research last October. The simulation predicted 65million people from every corner of the world would be wiped out in just 18 months. So far the highly contagious disease currently ravaging China has killed 26 people and infected more than 900 - but experts predict the true number to be thousands. Dr Eric Toner, a senior researcher at Johns Hopkins, said he wasn't shocked when news of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan in late December. Link |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:17:03 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote Historythat doesnt sound good |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:17:51 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Will be interesting to see where we are in a week or two. Leading US health experts predicted a coronavirus could kill tens of millions of people in a chilling warning three months before the deadly outbreak in China. Scientists at the prestigious Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security modeled a hypothetical pandemic on a computer as part of research last October. The simulation predicted 65million people from every corner of the world would be wiped out in just 18 months. So far the highly contagious disease currently ravaging China has killed 26 people and infected more than 900 - but experts predict the true number to be thousands. Dr Eric Toner, a senior researcher at Johns Hopkins, said he wasn't shocked when news of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan in late December. Link Quote HistoryQuoted: Will be interesting to see where we are in a week or two. Leading US health experts predicted a coronavirus could kill tens of millions of people in a chilling warning three months before the deadly outbreak in China. Scientists at the prestigious Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security modeled a hypothetical pandemic on a computer as part of research last October. The simulation predicted 65million people from every corner of the world would be wiped out in just 18 months. So far the highly contagious disease currently ravaging China has killed 26 people and infected more than 900 - but experts predict the true number to be thousands. Dr Eric Toner, a senior researcher at Johns Hopkins, said he wasn't shocked when news of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan in late December. Link Google Drive Link EtA: Prediction is over 250k in Wuhan by Feb 4th. Key findings
? We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. ? We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas. ? If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. ? Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. ? There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:24:23 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryIf it's impeded by natural resistance, vaccine, or some other factor, it would be much lower. Right now, with this being a novel virus, none of those impediments appear to exist. So while 3.8 isn't terrible for something that the body has experience with, it's actually pretty bad in this case. If 3.8 or higher and unimpeded, the number of cases should be doubling over the next 3 days. If the number is the higher end of current estimates (5+), it should be more than doubled (2500+) by tomorrow evening at about this time, and WAY over the million mark in 30 days. [ETA] If the R0 is 5+, backdating to when this was initially getting going and extrapolating from there would put the actual number of current infected at about 26,000. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:28:25 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Are you generating these graphs? If so, is there any chance you’d be willing to reverse the X axis? Reading time backwards (right to left) is messing me up. I figured the latest data to the left would make more sense, but I will swap it. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:36:49 PM EDT
[#17]
There has to be a lot of similar instances of this;
Hunt is on in UK for 2,000 people who flew in from Wuhan in last two weeks DM |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:39:45 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, with an unimpeded virus (which this may be), an R0 of 3.8 would be pretty much exactly on target for 250k in 10 days, and 875,000 in thirty days. If it's impeded by natural resistance, vaccine, or some other factor, it would be much lower. Right now, with this being a novel virus, none of those impediments appear to exist. So while 2.2 isn't terrible for something that the body has experience with, it's actually pretty bad in this case. If 3.8 or higher and unimpeded, the number of cases should be doubling over the next 3 days. If the number is the higher end of current estimates (5+), it should be more than doubled (2500+) by tomorrow evening at about this time, and WAY over the million mark in 30 days. [ETA] If the R0 is 5+, backdating to when this was initially getting going and extrapolating from there would put the actual number of current infected at about 26,000. 
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:43:44 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
How about 3.6?
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:46:23 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not great, not terrible. which would be bad. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:51:30 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There are other reports saying R0 is 3.4 - 3.6 which would be bad. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:52:37 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's not 3 R0...it's 15,000. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:57:34 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
My R0 meter only goes to 3.6! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
It's not 3 R0...it's 15,000.
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:04:09 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Somebody said in another thread that you take the number of confirmed with the virus that have died and the number confirmed with the virus that have now recovered to get the fatality rate. Those that currently are confirmed to have the virus that are neither recovered nor dead are not counted as they could live or die. As more recover or die over time you will get a more accurate figure. So if you have 100 confirmed cases and 40 are now dead and 60 are now recovered, that’s a 40% fatality rate. If you have 100 confirmed cases, 20 recovered, 20 died, 60 are neither recovered nor dead that’s a 50% fatality rate not a 20% fatality rate. If you have 1000 confirmed cases and 40 died but the other 960 have neither recovered nor died, that doesn’t make the death rate 4%. Those other 960 could still either die or recover. You don’t know and can’t count them until it happens. So in this instance you could not calculate a fatality rate. That’s the way I understood the general explanation. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:05:05 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:06:16 PM EDT
[#26]
I wonder if there are cases in North Korea? I'm not sure the gov there would report it if there were.
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:06:52 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: John Hopkins is putting out an excel document every 12 hours. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:09:30 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I wonder if there are cases in North Korea? I'm not sure the gov there would report it if there were. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:10:57 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Where could they possibly get accurate data?  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:14:20 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: damn that doesnt sound good |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:15:59 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They closed their borders pretty early on. 
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:17:15 PM EDT
[#32]
1 confirmed in Raleigh Nc.
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:17:16 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryThey weren't accurate in the past and doubt they are now.
Their job is to keep a lid on folks' panicking and to maintain economic and social stability as long as practicable. A worthy goal! |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:19:27 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They weren't accurate in the past and doubt they are now. Their job is to keep a lid on folks' panicking and to maintain economic and social stability as long as practicable. It feels like a waste of time for me to update the OP twice a day with the latest info when we all know it's horseshit. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:21:22 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
1 confirmed in Raleigh Nc. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:27:15 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Why is it that there are no reports of children being effected by 2019-ncov? Seems like if it effects people with compromised immune systems it should effect young children as well but so far it doesn’t look like it is. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:31:21 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I dont disagree. I commented as such in the rollup thread. It feels like a waste of time for me to update the OP twice a day with the latest info when we all know it's horseshit. And all the 'prestigious' sources with all the complex analysis, based on .gov supplied [China] 'horseshit'. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:31:29 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I dont disagree. I commented as such in the rollup thread. It feels like a waste of time for me to update the OP twice a day with the latest info when we all know it's horseshit. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: They weren't accurate in the past and doubt they are now. Their job is to keep a lid on folks' panicking and to maintain economic and social stability as long as practicable. It feels like a waste of time for me to update the OP twice a day with the latest info when we all know it's horseshit. It would be nice if we could get a consolidated thread with an updated OP for this mess going forward. I'm getting tired of multiple threads. 
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:33:07 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Everyone following this for the past week has been frustrated by the 'throttling' of info out of China. It would be nice if we could get a consolidated thread with an updated OP for this mess going forward. I'm getting tired of multiple threads. And the wild speculation and conversation would happen in this thread or the other one. As of right now, it's just the 3 threads. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:34:47 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Everyone following this for the past week has been frustrated by the 'throttling' of info out of China. It would be nice if we could get a consolidated thread with an updated OP for this mess going forward. I'm getting tired of multiple threads. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:37:33 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I was contacted by mods to keep my thread "facts" And the wild speculation and conversation would happen in this thread or the other one. As of right now, it's just the 3 threads. This thread has had the most 'meat'. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:38:33 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What you did there..... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: They closed their borders pretty early on. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:39:50 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They are hiring dentists now.... |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:40:29 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I was contacted by mods to keep my thread "facts" And the wild speculation and conversation would happen in this thread or the other one. As of right now, it's just the 3 threads. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Everyone following this for the past week has been frustrated by the 'throttling' of info out of China. It would be nice if we could get a consolidated thread with an updated OP for this mess going forward. I'm getting tired of multiple threads. And the wild speculation and conversation would happen in this thread or the other one. As of right now, it's just the 3 threads. I, for one, appreciate your roll-up in the OP for your thread. So please keep it going. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:41:14 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
1 confirmed in Raleigh Nc. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:42:00 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
OK, I'll post accordingly. I, for one, appreciate your roll-up in the OP for your thread. So please keep it going. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:48:41 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
@macro One last call out. The incubation period seems to be 5.6 days. Based on 37 travel cases. https://github.com/jabacker/nCoV-2019/blob/master/Incubationperiod_2019nCoV.pdf Edit: which is wayyy better than two weeks. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
@Curry In full disclosure, I am neither a clinician nor a scientist, so a lot of what is discussed in that article is far beyond my capability to assess. At a glance, it appears well structured, and in a nut shells seems to suggest that this virus presents like SARS, with a likelihood of the patient requiring acute ICU-level interventions. Interestingly, they cite data from patients admitted dating back to mid-December...so clearly this was on their radar for over a month nowperhaps more. Regarding my tone, I honestly don't know what to think. I spoke with some colleagues in the public health sector in the last 24 hours and we all agreed that based on the modeling we have all understood for the past few decadesif an outbreak was going to be 'the one', this one really looks like a textbook examplealmost too perfect.like a movie script. For now I am monitoring what information is out theretaking it all with a massive dose of saltand waiting for credible data. Like any other dynamic incident, early information is rarely accurate, and not worth losing sleep over. That said, this isn't nothingthe Chinese are making a point to at least engineer the appearance that they are initiating a massive responseso they clearly think the world is watching them. I suspect we will know more in the coming daysand I also suspect that if this truly is a real threat, it won't take much longer than that to have a good idea of the trajectory. If the incubation period is really as long as 2-weeks, this bug is everywhere alreadyquarantine efforts are a waste of energy and resources. To be continued One last call out. The incubation period seems to be 5.6 days. Based on 37 travel cases. https://github.com/jabacker/nCoV-2019/blob/master/Incubationperiod_2019nCoV.pdf Edit: which is wayyy better than two weeks. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:49:01 PM EDT
[#48]
https://twitter.com/IsChinar
Scroll down and there is a video of a Chinese student spitting on the elevator buttons while knowing he's infected. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:52:38 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Hopefully the actual facts are less ominous than the rapid-fire info propagating social media right now. I guess we will see sooner than later. Hope you are right! |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:55:00 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://twitter.com/IsChinar Scroll down and there is a video of a Chinese student spitting on the elevator buttons while knowing he's infected.
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