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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:42:33 AM EDT
[#1]
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Probably wont have any effect on pensions though,right? Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide on Tuesday, aggravating a key yield-curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007.
The yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note, more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, fell to 1.526%, 5 basis points above the 10-year note’s rate of 1.476% after closing inverted on Monday. Before August, the last inversion of this part of the yield curve was the one that began in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Fed’s preferred inversion metric — slumped to -52 basis points, its lowest since March 2007. The 30-year bond yielded 1.955% and was poised to close below the 3-month bill yield for the first time since 2007. A 10-year rate below the 2-year yield is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, marking an unusual phenomenon as bond holders receive better compensation in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced a 155-point gain on Tuesday as bond yields fell. 
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:43:44 AM EDT
[#2]
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No for the opposite view The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession Sorry your gal lost. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations. US Consumer Confidence at 19 Year High If the economy is so great, why does Trump have to hammer the Fed Res about lowering the interest rates? Why does he want a weak dollar? Neither are needed in a strong economy but both are needed to sustain a failing system. Please take the time to learn about the debt based monetary system. Debt must be constantly created to sustain it and the world, not just us, is about tapped out. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:44:15 AM EDT
[#3]
Over exaggerating story about interest in 2yr T-notes to drive fake recession fake news. Next week when that very short term rate changes up you won't hear about it.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:45:19 AM EDT
[#4]
Just dumped 80% of my bond positions, also sold some SPX. All proceeds to moneymarket. Orbit and wait.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:51:10 AM EDT
[#5]
Markets are cyclical. We are due for a recession. The only question in my mind is whether it will be before or after the election.
I’m starting to see lots of financial arrogance in the people I deal with everyday. Spending and acting like they’ll never see hard times again. That’s the biggest indicator to me. Over-confidence in something has always preceded a down turn in that something. I offer house flipping as the great boomer retirement plan of the mid 2000’s as an example. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:53:52 AM EDT
[#6]
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Just dumped 80% of my bond positions, also sold some SPX. All proceeds to moneymarket. Orbit and wait. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:44:34 AM EDT
[#7]
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Markets are cyclical. We are due for a recession. The only question in my mind is whether it will be before or after the election. I’m starting to see lots of financial arrogance in the people I deal with everyday. Spending and acting like they’ll never see hard times again. That’s the biggest indicator to me. Over-confidence in something has always preceded a down turn in that something. I offer house flipping as the great boomer retirement plan of the mid 2000’s as an example. My grandparents lived thru the depression,and passed a lot down to my parents and then me. My grandmother was the only one in the family that ever bought a new car,and that was in 1986 with just the interest off her CD's. Lived frugally,and left everything to the Church when she died. I know many people that live paycheck to paycheck and don't put anything aside for emergencies. 'Course people like that are great for the economy-people like me that save and only buy stuff they can afford,not so much.Luckily for the PTB,I'm a tiny minority.......
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:47:51 AM EDT
[#8]
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The beauty about having so many years on is the fucking happens to the newer people. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide on Tuesday, aggravating a key yield-curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007.
The yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note, more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, fell to 1.526%, 5 basis points above the 10-year note’s rate of 1.476% after closing inverted on Monday. Before August, the last inversion of this part of the yield curve was the one that began in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Fed’s preferred inversion metric — slumped to -52 basis points, its lowest since March 2007. The 30-year bond yielded 1.955% and was poised to close below the 3-month bill yield for the first time since 2007. A 10-year rate below the 2-year yield is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, marking an unusual phenomenon as bond holders receive better compensation in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced a 155-point gain on Tuesday as bond yields fell.
Didn't one of the states cut retirement benefits to retirees a year or two back?When the money runs out,the money runs out......... |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:47:58 AM EDT
[#9]
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A lack of buyers drives bond rates up. An over abundance of buyers drives bond rates down. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:52:30 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No for the opposite view The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession Sorry your gal lost. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations. US Consumer Confidence at 19 Year High 
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:55:19 AM EDT
[#11]
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I wonder if this is bigtime institutional buyers. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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A lack of buyers drives bond rates up. An over abundance of buyers drives bond rates down. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:58:48 AM EDT
[#12]
I've been watching this guy for several weeks. He has some interesting insight on the current dynamic of the market.
 SITUATION HYPER-CRITICAL: Global Bond Yields DIE-VE... By Gregory Mannarino |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:00:57 PM EDT
[#13]
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Yep,the last paragraph sums it up. Instant gratification/I want it now/don't want to save up the money until I can pay for it seems to be they wave. Pulls demand forward as well-why worry about the future?That's a ways away.......... Governments at all levels probably like it too-lower interest rates mean you can roll over the old shit,and get to spend more since the interest rates are lower now.What could go wrong? Surely it will all end well............ Quote HistoryQuoted:
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The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession https://www.lexingtonlaw.com/blog/loans/consumer-debt-statistics-2019.html Total consumer debt is on track to reach $4 trillion by the end of 2018, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data. That's an amount with twelve zeros. Collectively, Americans owe 26 percent of their income to this debt and spend 10 percent of their individual monthly income on non-mortgage debts like car loans, credit card accounts and student or personal loans. Americans have been amassing more and more debt since 2013 and disposable income has increased as well. Though income is increasing, American consumers are borrowing more money more often. Instant gratification/I want it now/don't want to save up the money until I can pay for it seems to be they wave. Pulls demand forward as well-why worry about the future?That's a ways away.......... Governments at all levels probably like it too-lower interest rates mean you can roll over the old shit,and get to spend more since the interest rates are lower now.What could go wrong? Surely it will all end well............ |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:03:34 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wouldn't be surprised if big buyers are trying to manipulate the rates to harm trumps economic successes. Not one bit. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:05:49 PM EDT
[#15]
The amount of cash out refi, and heloc loans taken In the last 4 years are absolutely staggering imho. When that ball hits the ground it’s going to be epic.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:07:43 PM EDT
[#16]
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With foreign bonds oftentimes being negative, I think we're seeing quite a bit of competition for US bonds that at least pay something. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: I wouldn't be surprised if big buyers are trying to manipulate the rates to harm trumps economic successes. Not one bit. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:46:57 PM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:54:09 PM EDT
[#18]
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Well,you hope it happens to the newbies anyway.
Didn't one of the states cut retirement benefits to retirees a year or two back?When the money runs out,the money runs out......... Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide on Tuesday, aggravating a key yield-curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007.
The yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note, more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, fell to 1.526%, 5 basis points above the 10-year note’s rate of 1.476% after closing inverted on Monday. Before August, the last inversion of this part of the yield curve was the one that began in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Fed’s preferred inversion metric — slumped to -52 basis points, its lowest since March 2007. The 30-year bond yielded 1.955% and was poised to close below the 3-month bill yield for the first time since 2007. A 10-year rate below the 2-year yield is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, marking an unusual phenomenon as bond holders receive better compensation in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced a 155-point gain on Tuesday as bond yields fell.
Didn't one of the states cut retirement benefits to retirees a year or two back?When the money runs out,the money runs out......... They did change retirees healthcare, but never saw the pension changes. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 1:00:24 PM EDT
[#19]
We need another Monday mega thread
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Posted: 8/28/2019 1:09:28 PM EDT
[#20]
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Also the Fed will be forced to start another round of QE. There is a very real shortage of US dollars out in the world. Look for large credit swaps between the US and the EU to happen again just like in 2008. Interesting times ahead. Bubbles everywhere. Pension fund failures will be one of the most painful things to come in the next recession. Corporate debt also is going to be another issue especially with so many already rated at BBB. More vote buying. Just print mo Monay! |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 1:22:58 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I wonder if this is bigtime institutional buyers. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
A lack of buyers drives bond rates up. An over abundance of buyers drives bond rates down. |
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