They need to hide the damage they have done before the election but people aren’t studied either. So they’re going with “ok fine inflation is up, but just a tiny bit! Hehe”

MoM was 0.1% from what I can see which is why I see "didn't go up meaningfully".  In the period between February 2022 and June 2022 it was going up anywhere between 0.3% to 1.3% per month with most of the months being on the higher end of that range.

To say it isn't cooling off (by their methodology) even with increased Fed fund rates is probably the wrong conclusion.  The market was hoping for -0.1% and we got 0.1%.  Obviously not what people wanted but it's still nothing like February through June.

Attached File

Biden can (correctly, i think) say that inflation was "0%" again now for last Month:


https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm

June 296.311
July 296.276
August 296.171

Very true, the rate increases are doing the damage, but deflation has to occur. It’s not yet.

Powell needs to increase by 1-2% not 0.75%.

Well somebody was because the consensus estimate was -0.1% MoM.  

8.3 represents the rate of increase, not the current price. Take steaks for example. They are about 50% higher than they were (x) months ago. So is inflation 50%? No, the current price represents x% inflation over xtime.

Gas prices are artificially deflated because of SPR releases. I anticipate they will reverse that flow after mid-terms.

Core CPI was up 0.6% MoM. That’s the bigger problem.

ETA: Pic from Twitter.
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Nope. Reagan did that.

CPI is a garbage number! I don't know of more than a handful of items NOT up a minimum of 20% since Poopy Pants took office. Most is up at least 50 percent. To make matters worse, our local sales tax just got bumped. As though the increase from inflation itself wasn't enough!

I have no doubt that the Federal Reserve won't let up until they get the recession they have clearly indicated they are shooting for.

I don't know if it really matters if he goes 1%-2% now or gets there over time with a few lessor increases.  Either way, the weight of higher interest rates is going to kick eventually as long as they don't let up.

Perhaps the big X factor is the degree to which our government "fights the Fed" by increasing spending to resist the very recession that the Fed is trying to create.  You'd think those two parties would be talking but the student loan forgiveness measure at a time when we are trying to dry up excess liquidity tells me that they aren't exactly on the same page.

I'm finding it funny that we are trying to fight inflation in one breath and discussing debt relief, rent control, rent support in the other breath.  The fundamental mechanism of fighting inflation is inflicting financial pain on people so they draw back from spending.  There's no such thing as pain without the discomfort.

They'll just vote in more socialism.

We need to look more at pre brandon costs on routine expense Gas is still over a dollar a gallon higher, and groceries are hitting  fifty percent or more. What has his ass in the White House costed everyone?

I call BS on food, Subway still has the $5 footlong!

Thank god the fed is raising rates.

It’s starting to curb my demand for food and fuel…..oh wait.

https://www.foodandwine.com/news/little-caesars-hot-ready-pizza-price-increase

Gotta play lip service for votes, give a bone, but the macro Fed always wins.

Pain must flow.

Putting bandaids on an open fracture.

I would say it's been about that for each of the last two years.

Only now it's on a breadstick.

The Fed knows this and doesn't take the gas price very much into account when deciding on rate hikes. It's highly "controllable" to an extent at least for a short period of time.

Not everything is included in the CPI.

Also the government has done some fuckery with what is included, since I think the Carter admin.

In other words, what was originally intended to be included in CPI, is not or it’s bastardized.

The government has so much debt now that it probably can’t afford to meaningfully raise interest rates.

There’s nothing we’ve purchased that has only gone up 8.3%.  We’re at 20%-25% plus, easily.

Since the government gets everything backwards, what we really need is a "Hyperinflation Causation Act".

The Fed gives two shits about inflation.  If they did, they wouldn't have let it get this high.

Again, this is going to be EPIC and it is going to effect every corner of the world.  This will not end quickly.  It will be very painful.  Ultimately there will be wars and shifts in the balance of power around the globe.


If you work in the energy, food and medical sectors you will weather the storm.  Even better so if you debt is low and what debt you do have is at low interest rates.

Small business is going to get hammered unless they are in middle America and in states where energy, food and medical is the predominate industries.

Wait until wages start to fall, but food and energy (all forms) is still rising.  Your home values will hold to go down slightly slightly depending on your location and industries in that area.  Your rent is going to continue to go up no matter where you're at.

Fun times.

The bitching and blaming is going to be non stop.  .GOV will attempt to make it about class.  Eventually the classes will turn towards the .GOV and change will happen.  It will take years.

Yep, it's the only way they know to kill inflation.

The problem is that Potato, Yelling, et al. will be blaming everything on the Fed and not their spending. And there are more than enough idiots to believe it.

The FR should have started sooner but inflation was only transitory.

I would believe 20% or so.

Our leaders are so compassionate!  To compensate for those steak prices, our leaders are dropping prices on our bug and worm rations.  
It's all part of the social re-engineering plan.  

I keep seeing folks on ARFCOM write this.

My family keeps an extremely detailed budget spreadsheet, and we enter each receipt on a tracking spreadsheet.

At the beginning of the biden administration our grocery budget for a family of 5 was $1,085 / month. grocery budget for us includes: Food, Clothing, Household filters (HVAC and Water), community youth sports fees, along with stuff like deoderant, new toothbrushes, diapers, new shoes, etc.

Today, our budget is $1,185 a month.

We have had to do some tightening, pushed up against the monthly limit more often, etc. It is harder for us to shop and keep under the $1,185 budget today, than keeping under the $1,085 budget was 2 years ago. but our kids are older, in more sports, growing like weed etc.  I certainly do not believe we have had 20% inflation and been able to maintain this budget.

But this data point knowing how detailed I track this stuff, ALONG with the Arfcom general response of "LIAR!!" In august 2022 when Biden said "Month to Month inflation this month was Zero" when my own vehicle gasoline bill at 140 Gallons / Month for my family decreased by over $200 from July to August (without a $200 increase in my grocery bill from July to August) makes me seriously question the validity of any posted claims here about inflation rates. I believe at least many of these claims are not informed by hard data that is objectively tracked from month to month. I mean on this same forum we have posters who claim their federal tax rate was 40%, on a $200K income.

Edit to add:

We have added $0 to these categories in our monthly/annual budget since Biden took office:
Mortgage
Electric (actually went down by $6 a month when i updated the last 12 months rolling average a few months ago)
Trash pickup
Car Insurance (decreased by $95 a month changing to GEICO for the same coverage 2 months ago)
Healthcare
Tolls plus Parking
Alarm System Monitoring
Password Vault Service
Cell Phone Bill
ICloud
Gym Membership
Disney+
Weight Watchers
Entertainment (restaurant and alcohol)
Anti Virus software
Spotify
Audible
Amazon Prime

This category has increased by 11% since Biden took office:
Child Care (daycare)

These categories have increased by at least a few dollars a month:
Netflix
Directv

This category has increased by 15% since Biden took office:
Hunt Club (lease) dues


We are going to Aruba for 6 days in 2023. I noted recently, room prices are up approximately 60% since the time I made the budget for this trip in 2019. That was a smack in the face, but we'll grin and bear it and go regardless.


I believe our personal inflation, which includes some tightening in our house, is likely approx 10% total since Inauguration.

What time does the gaslighting from the WH's first LGPTBBQ+POC+carpetmucher start?

The vast majority of people don't try to quantify their suspicions before turning them into publicly stated opinions.  

I actually have a folder with a few spreadsheets to try and quantify certain hot topics that seem to pop up from time to time hear because I was curious enough to do the actual work.  Now instead of arguing in those threads I just post the math and it usually kills the thread.  

Wife's non-profit is giving everyone 3% COL raises before individual merit-based increases.

Goes about an eighth of the way to covering real inflation.

Aren't they now excluding gas prices from the index, because it was 'unfairly' degrading their numbers?  Not sure.

At any rate, they can keep increasing the interest rate, but it will be ineffective because the Gov keeps shoveling free money out to people.

Example: I'm sure that they are already working on the next round of "inflation relief" checks to send out.

At some point in their rate increases, the camel's back will break despite the free gov money, and we'll get a huge crash.   I can't believe some here are eagerly awaiting that event.  Vultures.

Sure, when you take out several important things, it's only 8.3.

Your numbers are just that, your numbers.

My numbers tell a very different story. I too keep a detailed budget and track spending.

From the time Biden took office until today:

Food - 34.9 % increase

Pool maintenance - 86.5 % increase

Car maintenance including tires - 28.4 % increase

Clothing - 16.5 % increase

Fuel - 140 % increase

This adds up to hundreds of dollars in additional monthly  cost over pre Biden household budgets.

My 3 % cola doesn’t even make a dent in these very real price increases. Cuts have been made and will continue to be made which is why the economy is vapor locking.

So good for you for beating it I guess? Extreme couponing or something?? Some fancy college math? Sell meth?

Once you really embed in yor brain how big of a liar pedo joe really is then you'll start believing. Your problem is you're too honest and you expect honesty return. You won't find it among democrats. Or a bunch of repubs either.
We have a dem running for state office in my district. Her garage sale sized sign is all red (repub color) with a tiny little donkey in the upper right corner. My district is conservative, she's hoping to fool people.

-0.1% MoM would mean less of an increase, not a decrease. The inflation rate is still 8.3% YoY.

...biblical /end

-0.1% MoM literally would have meant they calculated prices as being overall -0.1% less than the prior month.  That requires a decrease in prices to have occurred by very definition.

If prices stayed exactly the same for the next 12 months, we'd still have reported YoY inflation until July 2023 because of the very nature of YoY data.

Dow is now down ~900.  Nasdaq is down 4%.

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Who cares?

8.3% is a lie anyway.

So what's next years cost of living increase gonna look like for military retirees?

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Fuel, groceries, utilities up an average of 25%

' inflation is 0 ' and ' the Border is secure '

Nailed it!

Yes, but by comparing the current lie with the lie from the prior month and the lie from the prior year we get a rough idea of the relative actual change.  

You mean, people waiting for opportunities?