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I’m not going to lie, my confidence is rattled. I’m still in for the ride to the future. Whether that is $10M or zero. Maybe that’s stupid. Is this what capitulation feels like?
An end to the war, squashing inflation, and traditional finance adoption may lift us up. Use of a nuke, rising inflation and unemployment, and horrible regulation could push us down. Same as it ever was. |
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Pete - The Firearm Blog
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Alright, new topic for the thread to keep things interesting.
Why is Litecoin holding up so well? I've had a small amount in my portfolio since forever and never really paid attention to it but I've noticed that it's been diverging with BTC since the summer bottom. LTC is usually and absolute dog during bear markets so this is unexpected to me. Attached File |
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Only thing I can think of is LTC front-running its halving in Aug '23. It pumped pretty good before the last one in 2019.
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Originally Posted By woodsie: Alright, new topic for the thread to keep things interesting. Why is Litecoin holding up so well? I've had a small amount in my portfolio since forever and never really paid attention to it but I've noticed that it's been diverging with BTC since the summer bottom. LTC is usually and absolute dog during bear markets so this is unexpected to me. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2609798.JPG View Quote ??? Bitcoin’s quiet sister that hasn’t been fucked six ways to Sunday by the whole town? |
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Don't you tell me about galaxies! I walk them in the timeline.
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Originally Posted By woodsie: Alright, new topic for the thread to keep things interesting. Why is Litecoin holding up so well? I've had a small amount in my portfolio since forever and never really paid attention to it but I've noticed that it's been diverging with BTC since the summer bottom. LTC is usually and absolute dog during bear markets so this is unexpected to me. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2609798.JPG View Quote Because people just love dabbling in useless shitcoins. |
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Reminds me, I met this nurse a year or so ago. She was talking about LTC. She was/is an LTC maximalist. As-in, F BTC, ETH and everything else. Said she’d been in it a very long time and has invested “probably close to 100 thousand or more” . I found myself absolutely baffled. To the point I had nothing to say, really, other than “huh, that’s interesting.” As bullish as they come for LTC, lol.
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Originally Posted By woodsie: Now do 6 years. 5 years cherry picks peak to trough. You can make a lots of stuff look stupid if you take that approach. Bitcoin was down between 2013 and 2016 as well. Long crypto bear markets are nothing new. I suspect the one we are in right now could last just as long or longer. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By lazyengineer: Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Ok, now pretend you started in Feb ‘21. Yea wow - can you imagine? Ouch. If you got in Feb '19 - you won; bigly. (assuming you actually sold) But man, if you got in, in Feb '21 - you lost. So over the last 5 years, here we are now - if you bought in 5 years ago, and just held, you'd be up 50%. Meanwhile, https://i.postimg.cc/YCXdnd5z/image.png if you just bought stock in US phosphorus mining operations (Lazy's recommendation in TEAM a while back - with long story backing why ), you'd have doubled your value (103%), compared to buying and holding Bitcoin over the last five years (which is sitting at only 45% 5-year total gain). And nobody stole all your phosphorus and took it with them to Argentina last week either; nor asked by the IRS "Do you own phosphorus holdings?" as question #1 on your 1040. Now do 6 years. 5 years cherry picks peak to trough. You can make a lots of stuff look stupid if you take that approach. Bitcoin was down between 2013 and 2016 as well. Long crypto bear markets are nothing new. I suspect the one we are in right now could last just as long or longer. Probably - that was the default "go far back" button the websites use, so that's the what I clicked. |
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Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Reminds me, I met this nurse a year or so ago. She was talking about LTC. She was/is an LTC maximalist. As-in, F BTC, ETH and everything else. Said she'd been in it a very long time and has invested "probably close to 100 thousand or more" . I found myself absolutely baffled. To the point I had nothing to say, really, other than "huh, that's interesting." As bullish as they come for LTC, lol. View Quote |
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Originally Posted By lazyengineer: Probably - that was the default "go far back" button the websites use, so that's the what I clicked. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By lazyengineer: Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By lazyengineer: Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Ok, now pretend you started in Feb ‘21. Yea wow - can you imagine? Ouch. If you got in Feb '19 - you won; bigly. (assuming you actually sold) But man, if you got in, in Feb '21 - you lost. So over the last 5 years, here we are now - if you bought in 5 years ago, and just held, you'd be up 50%. Meanwhile, https://i.postimg.cc/YCXdnd5z/image.png if you just bought stock in US phosphorus mining operations (Lazy's recommendation in TEAM a while back - with long story backing why ), you'd have doubled your value (103%), compared to buying and holding Bitcoin over the last five years (which is sitting at only 45% 5-year total gain). And nobody stole all your phosphorus and took it with them to Argentina last week either; nor asked by the IRS "Do you own phosphorus holdings?" as question #1 on your 1040. Now do 6 years. 5 years cherry picks peak to trough. You can make a lots of stuff look stupid if you take that approach. Bitcoin was down between 2013 and 2016 as well. Long crypto bear markets are nothing new. I suspect the one we are in right now could last just as long or longer. Probably - that was the default "go far back" button the websites use, so that's the what I clicked. User name is appropriate? |
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Originally Posted By Jagrmaister: Because people just love dabbling in useless shitcoins. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Jagrmaister: Originally Posted By woodsie: Alright, new topic for the thread to keep things interesting. Why is Litecoin holding up so well? I've had a small amount in my portfolio since forever and never really paid attention to it but I've noticed that it's been diverging with BTC since the summer bottom. LTC is usually and absolute dog during bear markets so this is unexpected to me. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2609798.JPG Because people just love dabbling in useless shitcoins. There's lots of useless shitcoins to dabble in. When something divergent is happening it's always good to as "why?". Doesn't always mean that you agree with the answer but it's good to know. |
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Originally Posted By goloud: I’m not going to lie, my confidence is rattled. I’m still in for the ride to the future. Whether that is $10M or zero. Maybe that’s stupid. Is this what capitulation feels like? An end to the war, squashing inflation, and traditional finance adoption may lift us up. Use of a nuke, rising inflation and unemployment, and horrible regulation could push us down. Same as it ever was. View Quote My biggest thing right now is how much do I continue to invest / DCA. “Not more than you’re willing to lose” never made anybody wealthy. It’s a grey area. It would hurt (at least be extremely disappointing) if it all went to zero. I invest enough in crypto that it has taken a portion of my discretionary income over the past few years. It has lessened the money I invest elsewhere, save elsewhere and certainly hobby elsewhere. I think I should limit my DCA amount more than I already have. Problem is now it’s cheap! Same thing I’ve said since it’s decline from the 40s… |
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Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Reminds me, I met this nurse a year or so ago. She was talking about LTC. She was/is an LTC maximalist. As-in, F BTC, ETH and everything else. Said she’d been in it a very long time and has invested “probably close to 100 thousand or more” . I found myself absolutely baffled. To the point I had nothing to say, really, other than “huh, that’s interesting.” As bullish as they come for LTC, lol. View Quote I guess LTC is the closest thing to a better version of BTC without attempting to be something other than what BTC attempts to be. Still, it doesn't seem fast enough to truly be a usefully better version of BTC. |
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Originally Posted By TW200: Then don't sweat what they say. I always felt Bitcoin was working to replace the US dollar. The US dollar as world currency is the main thing that keeps us (US) a world power. Bitcoin will someday undermine the US dollar if bitcoin suceeds. Got Gold...Silver? When the US dollar goes to total shit metals will shine. I hope that doesn't happen. View Quote It already has. You know it, I know it, we all know it. We aren't seeing the full effects of it yet, mostly thanks to inertia, USD dominance and every other country having sinned the same sins and worse, but it is coming. When the Fed stops promising ever rising returns on foreign investments, and that music into dollar denominated savings and investments stops, it'll be a bad time to be looking for an available chair. I hold a decent amount of physical but I'm off of my PM mining and royalty shares. I believe we still have more rising dollar and aggressive Fed ahead. Those have been massive headwinds for gold. In fact, I think the Fed is going to have to look aggressive until something finally breaks. Equities are going to get hammered in future earnings. The recent painful labor shortage is going to make a lot of companies hesitant to adjust staffing levels quickly and fixed payroll combined with falling sales isn't a healthy business environment. |
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"You go to a supermarket and you see a faggot behind the fuckin’ cash register, you don’t want him to handle your potatoes.” – Neil Young re: AIDS
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Originally Posted By TW200: A list of things. Rich people making money shorting paper gold and silver FJB spending US dollars. Nuclear black swan Putin event USA Men are women and USA women are men. US boys are whinney pussies...our next military. 5 million illegals entering the US it the past two years. 5 Million illegals putting a strain on our tax dollars and Hospitals aka heathcare ***FBJ and son seem to be Chinese spies.*** *****Gov is helping the Chinese become the world super power.*** ***The Chinese navy is NOW bigger than the USA navy due to FJB.*** F emale B ody I nspectors lied and called our President Trump a spy. The 2020 elections were rigged. And many, many more reasons. All the BS from the last two years will come to roost. Just a matter of time. View Quote Yep. It's all a very hard blackpill to swallow. I haven't always been a doomer but physics is physics. I've had a good year in 2022 investing like this is end days. |
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"You go to a supermarket and you see a faggot behind the fuckin’ cash register, you don’t want him to handle your potatoes.” – Neil Young re: AIDS
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Originally Posted By Brahmzy: My biggest thing right now is how much do I continue to invest / DCA. “Not more than you’re willing to lose” never made anybody wealthy. It’s a grey area. It would hurt (at least be extremely disappointing) if it all went to zero. I invest enough in crypto that it has taken a portion of my discretionary income over the past few years. It has lessened the money I invest elsewhere, save elsewhere and certainly hobby elsewhere. I think I should limit my DCA amount more than I already have. Problem is now it’s cheap! Same thing I’ve said since it’s decline from the 40s… View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Originally Posted By goloud: I’m not going to lie, my confidence is rattled. I’m still in for the ride to the future. Whether that is $10M or zero. Maybe that’s stupid. Is this what capitulation feels like? An end to the war, squashing inflation, and traditional finance adoption may lift us up. Use of a nuke, rising inflation and unemployment, and horrible regulation could push us down. Same as it ever was. My biggest thing right now is how much do I continue to invest / DCA. “Not more than you’re willing to lose” never made anybody wealthy. It’s a grey area. It would hurt (at least be extremely disappointing) if it all went to zero. I invest enough in crypto that it has taken a portion of my discretionary income over the past few years. It has lessened the money I invest elsewhere, save elsewhere and certainly hobby elsewhere. I think I should limit my DCA amount more than I already have. Problem is now it’s cheap! Same thing I’ve said since it’s decline from the 40s… I don't think you can ignore maintaining a balance with traditional investments like stocks and bonds. I still believe crypto will be bigger in 5 years than it is today but there are existential risks that have been present since the very beginning and you can't ignore that and must have an overall plan that is durable in the event that crypto "goes to zero" even if it seems unlikely. |
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Originally Posted By woodsie: I don't think you can ignore maintaining a balance with traditional investments like stocks and bonds. I still believe crypto will be bigger in 5 years than it is today but there are existential risks that have been present since the very beginning and you can't ignore that and must have an overall plan that is durable in the event that crypto "goes to zero" even if it seems unlikely. View Quote Agreed. Still invest heavily / balance elsewhere, just taking a step back. |
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If we get another leg down I think I’m going to load up my btc bags.
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Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Ok, we must be near the bottom of this bear. @dog-meat is starting to get bullish... View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Originally Posted By dog-meat: If we get another leg down I think I’m going to load up my btc bags. Ok, we must be near the bottom of this bear. @dog-meat is starting to get bullish... The plebs set the floor. Attached File Easy to spot Satoshi's stack from 2009. |
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Originally Posted By Jagrmaister: The plebs set the floor. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/268409/Screenshot_20221122-103110_Twitter_jpg-2609937.JPG Easy to spot Satoshi's stack from 2009. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Jagrmaister: Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Originally Posted By dog-meat: If we get another leg down I think I’m going to load up my btc bags. Ok, we must be near the bottom of this bear. @dog-meat is starting to get bullish... The plebs set the floor. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/268409/Screenshot_20221122-103110_Twitter_jpg-2609937.JPG Easy to spot Satoshi's stack from 2009. I would presume that the majority of that 2009-2012 Bitcoin still idle in 2022 is lost. That's a neat visualization once you wrap your head around it. |
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Originally Posted By woodsie: I would presume that the majority of that 2009-2012 Bitcoin still idle in 2022 is lost. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By Jagrmaister: Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Originally Posted By dog-meat: If we get another leg down I think I’m going to load up my btc bags. Ok, we must be near the bottom of this bear. @dog-meat is starting to get bullish... The plebs set the floor. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/268409/Screenshot_20221122-103110_Twitter_jpg-2609937.JPG Easy to spot Satoshi's stack from 2009. I would presume that the majority of that 2009-2012 Bitcoin still idle in 2022 is lost. You'd be presuming correctly. |
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Originally Posted By woodsie: There's lots of useless shitcoins to dabble in. When something divergent is happening it's always good to as "why?". Doesn't always mean that you agree with the answer but it's good to know. View Quote LTC is one of the few alts that is not likely to be regulated as a security. My guess is this price action may be positioning for inflows if/when sweeping regulation gets passed because it would have more upside than BTC. |
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Originally Posted By SERVED_USMC: Double check the address you sent it to and see which chain. If you sent to ERC20 than it may be a software issue with the wallet like I had with my ledger View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By SERVED_USMC: Originally Posted By ARandomClaymore: I'm trying to find out within CB more information if they did merge them before contacting customer support. It's a small bag (couple hundred or so), but it's still a bag none-the-less. Double check the address you sent it to and see which chain. If you sent to ERC20 than it may be a software issue with the wallet like I had with my ledger @SERVED_USMC Follow up: All is good. Have my stack of Poly on Ellipal now. Since Poly (purchased in CB) is an ERC-20, I had to add Poly under the Ethereum Network on my Ellipal device. The moment I did, it showed up. |
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"And I never did get my lawnmower back!" - Bandit 6
"On the bright side, the money we saved by not going to Mars in the 1970s, we spent on welfare and public schools." - @MorlockP |
Originally Posted By ARandomClaymore: @SERVED_USMC Follow up: All is good. Have my stack of Poly on Ellipal now. Since Poly (purchased in CB) is an ERC-20, I had to add Poly under the Ethereum Network on my Ellipal device. The moment I did, it showed up. View Quote Awesome. Glad you got it sorted out. |
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Originally Posted By Brahmzy: My biggest thing right now is how much do I continue to invest / DCA. “Not more than you’re willing to lose” never made anybody wealthy. It’s a grey area. It would hurt (at least be extremely disappointing) if it all went to zero. I invest enough in crypto that it has taken a portion of my discretionary income over the past few years. It has lessened the money I invest elsewhere, save elsewhere and certainly hobby elsewhere. I think I should limit my DCA amount more than I already have. Problem is now it’s cheap! Same thing I’ve said since it’s decline from the 40s… View Quote Rick Rule: “If you really like something and it’s selling for 50% off, you should like it twice as much.” |
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Originally Posted By CBags04: Well, she was a nurse. Did she also have red hair and love horses? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By CBags04: Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Reminds me, I met this nurse a year or so ago. She was talking about LTC. She was/is an LTC maximalist. As-in, F BTC, ETH and everything else. Said she'd been in it a very long time and has invested "probably close to 100 thousand or more" . I found myself absolutely baffled. To the point I had nothing to say, really, other than "huh, that's interesting." As bullish as they come for LTC, lol. 😂 |
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Originally Posted By Jagrmaister: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/268409/Screenshot_20221121-220804_Twitter_jpg-2609917.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/268409/Screenshot_20221121-220758_Twitter_jpg-2609919.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/268409/Screenshot_20221122-100033_Twitter_jpg-2609915.JPG View Quote That last tweet makes it look like despite 66% of Bitcoin holders holding on to their investments, bitcoin still lost 40% of its value. |
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Rockout W/ Yo Glockout Plastic Fantastic Fanatic
AL, USA
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Originally Posted By Enzo300: It already has. You know it, I know it, we all know it. We aren't seeing the full effects of it yet, mostly thanks to inertia, USD dominance and every other country having sinned the same sins and worse, but it is coming. When the Fed stops promising ever rising returns on foreign investments, and that music into dollar denominated savings and investments stops, it'll be a bad time to be looking for an available chair. I hold a decent amount of physical but I'm off of my PM mining and royalty shares. I believe we still have more rising dollar and aggressive Fed ahead. Those have been massive headwinds for gold. In fact, I think the Fed is going to have to look aggressive until something finally breaks. Equities are going to get hammered in future earnings. The recent painful labor shortage is going to make a lot of companies hesitant to adjust staffing levels quickly and fixed payroll combined with falling sales isn't a healthy business environment. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Enzo300: Originally Posted By TW200: Then don't sweat what they say. I always felt Bitcoin was working to replace the US dollar. The US dollar as world currency is the main thing that keeps us (US) a world power. Bitcoin will someday undermine the US dollar if bitcoin suceeds. Got Gold...Silver? When the US dollar goes to total shit metals will shine. I hope that doesn't happen. It already has. You know it, I know it, we all know it. We aren't seeing the full effects of it yet, mostly thanks to inertia, USD dominance and every other country having sinned the same sins and worse, but it is coming. When the Fed stops promising ever rising returns on foreign investments, and that music into dollar denominated savings and investments stops, it'll be a bad time to be looking for an available chair. I hold a decent amount of physical but I'm off of my PM mining and royalty shares. I believe we still have more rising dollar and aggressive Fed ahead. Those have been massive headwinds for gold. In fact, I think the Fed is going to have to look aggressive until something finally breaks. Equities are going to get hammered in future earnings. The recent painful labor shortage is going to make a lot of companies hesitant to adjust staffing levels quickly and fixed payroll combined with falling sales isn't a healthy business environment. That's incorrect. It takes 6 to 7 months for the real affects to show. So sometime next year the shit will really hit the fan. The stock market is foward looking, but Gov spending will take months and months before the shit totally hits the fan. |
Glockity Glock Glock.
Shoot the glass! I love my little pro gun Viking wife. World's bluest eyes. She's bad to the bone. Phrasing |
Pretty interesting episode of Bankless (podcast) today. Breaks down some pretty good data. Worth a listen if you’ve got some time.
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Pete - The Firearm Blog
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Originally Posted By goloud: Originally Posted By SERVED_USMC: Pretty interesting episode of Bankless (podcast) today. Breaks down some pretty good data. Worth a listen if you’ve got some time. Are we fckd? No. Just early. |
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Originally Posted By goloud: Are we fckd? View Quote Yes, crypto is dead. I just breaks down a lot of the FTX/SBF issues in easy(ish) to understand terms, but does a good job explaining the domino effect we've seen this year. Starts with Do Kwon and the UST debacle. Also goes into detail on how some of the exchanges and hedge funds played into making/breaking the last bull run. Just an interesting episode overall that I think some would also find interesting. |
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I just made a large Black Friday purchase. Don’t worry fellas, BTC should hit 12K soon.
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Originally Posted By TW200: Put FTX and all the other BS companies and your equations this go round. Also not anymore huge stock profits being made to dump into bitcoin. Even the rich are "hurting" right now. View Quote Also have to add interest rates above 0 to the equation. Easy to take on risk with meme stocks, crypto, NFT's, RE, and pie in the sky startups when your idle cash is earning jack squat and borrowing is dirt cheap. Once bit hard by the devil they don't know they scurry back to the one they do know for a 5% return and lick their wounds. Granted bond and CD rates are still below inflation but a 3% yearly loss of purchasing power is much better than a 70% loss. |
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Anyone get to experience the joy of Coinbase unlinking all your bank accounts?
Now they want my login information for the bank system to use with a third party verification system called "plaid". Which, of course, did not work. Guess its time to find a new exchange. |
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Originally Posted By GraboidHunter: Anyone get to experience the joy of Coinbase unlinking all your bank accounts? Now they want my login information for the bank system to use with a third party verification system called "plaid". Which, of course, did not work. Guess its time to find a new exchange. View Quote These days though, immediate self custody all the things. |
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Originally Posted By GraboidHunter: Anyone get to experience the joy of Coinbase unlinking all your bank accounts? Now they want my login information for the bank system to use with a third party verification system called "plaid". Which, of course, did not work. Guess its time to find a new exchange. View Quote Plaid is legit. As legit as possible anyway. |
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Pete - The Firearm Blog
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Any updates on the Blockfi situation? Had some parked there to try and diamond hands a small amount.
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Originally Posted By GraboidHunter: Anyone get to experience the joy of Coinbase unlinking all your bank accounts? Now they want my login information for the bank system to use with a third party verification system called "plaid". Which, of course, did not work. Guess its time to find a new exchange. View Quote That happened to me about a month ago. It took two seconds to re-link with Plaid. |
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Originally Posted By Detached: Any updates on the Blockfi situation? Had some parked there to try and diamond hands a small amount. View Quote I haven’t seen anything yet. I’ve got (had) their credit card and they were blowing up my email a week or two ago making sure I was aware of my “agreement obligations” in regards to making the payment. Sounds like they really need the cash. |
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Originally Posted By GraboidHunter: Anyone get to experience the joy of Coinbase unlinking all your bank accounts? Now they want my login information for the bank system to use with a third party verification system called "plaid". Which, of course, did not work. Guess its time to find a new exchange. View Quote |
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Don’t get me started on CB n banking BS. I’ve had to open 2 different checking accounts to finally get it working. I still get the “out of funds” errors a lot, too. Always seems to happen at the worst times too.
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Originally Posted By SERVED_USMC: I haven’t seen anything yet. I’ve got (had) their credit card and they were blowing up my email a week or two ago making sure I was aware of my “agreement obligations” in regards to making the payment. Sounds like they really need the cash. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By SERVED_USMC: Originally Posted By Detached: Any updates on the Blockfi situation? Had some parked there to try and diamond hands a small amount. I haven’t seen anything yet. I’ve got (had) their credit card and they were blowing up my email a week or two ago making sure I was aware of my “agreement obligations” in regards to making the payment. Sounds like they really need the cash. Yeah the third party who owns the card probably freaked out when BlcokFi paused operations. It may not matter much now though as BlockFi is now officially @ dead with Ch. 11 being filed this morning. Those with funds stuck there with o/s card balances may just never pay it. |
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I like cars.
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Originally Posted By Brahmzy: Don’t get me started on CB n banking BS. I’ve had to open 2 different checking accounts to finally get it working. I still get the “out of funds” errors a lot, too. Always seems to happen at the worst times too. View Quote It's an aggravation. Sometimes the bank is the problem though, it's not always CB fucking stuff up. I ran into that with Fidelity a while back. Worked fine for months then suddenly kept getting flagged and wouldn't work at all afterward. I gave up dealing with it. With CB1 you don't have to pay debit card fees anymore, so I just do that. |
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View Quote I'm sure there's more to follow. Anyone in bed with FTX is probably up shit creek and/or engaged in similar business practices. |
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