https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news July 28: Cannibal CME headed our way

Today’s top story: A cannibal coronal mass ejection (CME) is headed our way. On July 26, the sun launched a CME from a filament eruption. On July 27, a CME associated with an M3.1 flare was visible at 5:46 UTC, leaving the sun toward Earth. Much faster than the first, the second CME is expected to take over the slower first CME, cannibalizing it and creating a more complex single event. The resulting CME is estimated to reach Earth from late July 29 to early July 30. This should cause a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm on July 29, with a G2 (moderate) possible by July 30. Get your aurora-watching hats on, and good luck! Solar activity has increased substantially over the past 24 hours, reaching high levels due to seven M flares, particularly three greater than M5, including an almost X flare, an M9.9. Stay tuned for more sun news.

Last 24 hours: Solar activity has reached high levels thanks to six M flares, including two events over M5. During our observation period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, the sun released 15 flares; the seven Ms and eight C flares. The largest event was an M9.9 (just shy of an X1). The complete list of M flares is:
• M2.7 on July 27 at 17:50 UTC from AR3766. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Americas.
• M3.5 on July 27 at 18:24 UTC from AR3766. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M1.1 on July 27 at 19:11 UTC from AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M7.9 on July 28 at 01:39 UTC from AR3764. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M9.9 on July 28 at 01:53 UTC from AR3764. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over eastern Asia.
• M1.6 on July 28 at 03:37 UTC from AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over eastern Asia.
• M7.8 on July 28 at 10:27 UTC from AR3762. R2 (minor) radio blackout over Africa.
AR3762 produced the most M flares with three. AR3764, AR3766 tied for the second most M flares with two each. AR3765 produced the most number of flares with six C flares. AR3762 grow in size and maintained its delta region. AR3765 kept its beta-gamma magnetic complexity and the remaining regions had either simple alphas or betas. The sun had nine sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 60%. The chance for X flares is 10%.

Next expected CME: Two Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in coronagraph imagery. The first one was from a filament eruption visible in LASCO C2 imagery on July 26 at 21:24 UTC. The second was associated with an M3.1 flare which peaked July 27 at 5:46 UTC. The second CME is the faster of the two and is expected to overtake the first one, cannibalizing it before they reach Earth. The resultant CME should reach us late July 29 to early July 30 UTC or at the beginning of July 30 EST/CST time.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on July 28). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on July 28 and any remaining coronal hole fast solar wind effects are expected to subside. G1 (minor) storming is expected late July 29 due to the possible arrival of the cannibal CME from July 27. CME impact should continue into July 30 increasing to G2 (moderate) storming as the bulk of the CME passes through the near Earth environment.

July 28, 2024 @ 21:20 UTC
A series of coronal mass ejections are predicted to possibly merge and contribute to a combined impact by July 30th. Moderate (G2) to Strong (G3) geomagnetic storm conditions will be possible within the next 48-72 hours. Perhaps some great news for aurora sky watchers at middle to high latitudes.

July 29, 2024 @ 02:50 UTC (UPDATED)
An X1.5 solar flare was just detected around AR 3764/3766 peaking at 02:37 UTC (July 29th). The active region is now directly facing our planet and is in a great position for potential Earth directed eruptions. It does not appear that this particular event was responsible for a noteworthy CME however.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Jul 29 0236 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 535 km/s

I see the Aurora alert is at a 7 for July 30. Last time it hit 7, the aurora was seen all over the US

If we get another CME after the current 3 have cleared the way, then it might be as good as last time.

https://www.sws.bom.gov.au

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news July 29: KaBOOM! X1.5 flare and sun stuff on the way

Today’s top story: The sun released an X1.5 solar flare early this morning (2:33 UTC on July 29). This flare, along with many of the M flares over the past two days, has a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with it. CMEs from July 27 and July 28, mentioned in the video below, created a cannibal CME, which is expected to reach Earth on July 31-August 1. We await the space weather forecaster analysis of the CMEs for the past 24 hours, but there are more than likely a few more on the way to Earth’s vicinity. With all of these CMEs and their resulting (expected) geomagnetic storms, it’s a good time to get ready for some aurora-watching. This is certainly true for higher latitudes, but it could also be true for northern-tier U.S. states. Stay tuned for aurora forecast updates.

Last 24 hours: Sun activity is high. Solar activity increased slightly over the past 24 hours (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). The sun produced an X1.5 flare, six M, and ten C flares. The largest event of the period was an X1.5 at 2:33 UTC on July 29. The complete list of X and M flares is:
• M1.7 on July 28 at 11:28 UTC from AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M2.6 on July 28 at 12:43 UTC from AR3767. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.7 on July 28 at 13:46 UTC from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.3 on July 28 at 18:08 UTC from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the U.S.
• M1.9 on July 28 at 20:25 UTC from AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• X1.5 on July 29 at 02:33 UTC from AR3764. R3 (strong) radio blackout over East Asia.
• M1.0 on July 29 at 05:10 UTC from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over East Asia.
AR3762 produced the most M flares, with five. AR3767 produced four and AR3768 produced three. AR3763-65 and AR3770 all increased slightly in size. AR3762, 68, and 69 decreased sightly in size. AR3762 maintained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. AR3765 and 68 also gained beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. AR3764, AR3766, and AR3770 have beta-gamma complexities. The remaining have alpha or beta. The sun has ten sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disks.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 20%.

Next expected CME: Two Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. The first CME was associated with yesterday’s M9.9 flare. This halo event was first observed in LASCO C2 at 2:24 UTC on July 28. It is expected to arrive mid-to-late on July 30. The second CME is expected to glance Earth on late July 31 to early Aug. 1.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on July 29). Periods of G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are likely late today due to the possible arrival of a CME from July 27. Periods of G3 (strong) storming are likely on July 30, with G2 (moderate) storm periods likely on July 31, due to the anticipated arrival and passage of multiple CMEs from July 27-28.

July 29, 2024 @ 19:15 UTC
Additional coronal mass ejections including the faint halo CME produced by an M9.9 solar flare on July 28th have now been modeled. This now makes at least 3-4 CMEs predicted to possibly combine to produce geomagnetic storming up to the strong (G3) level. Please note that none of these eruptions were particularly energetic or fast moving so we will have to wait until the arrivals past Earth to gauge conditions further.

Hey @DaGoose   Update the thread title and date to possibly let people know it could be happening again.

@eurotrash   Keep a eye out, could be happening again!

Thanks for the heads up!

Done.

Nice. Thanks again for all the updates!

We're gonna need a bigger EV...

Not if my wallet can help it. I'm setting up an autopay to Greta Thunberg so she can best address this issue.

Will I be able to see it from Texas

Maybe.  It’s complicated.

This.

So far a nothingburger.  KP4.  More CMEs on the way though so we'll see.

July 29, 2024 @ 23:45 UTC (UPDATED)
The first of several eruptions expected to pass Earth has reached the ACE spacecraft. The solar wind speed increased from 330 km/s to around 450 km/s. A passage past our planet is expected within the hour.
CME Impact: The Boulder magnetometer detected a geomagnetic sudden impulse (58nT) at 00:02 UTC (July 30th). The solar wind speed is currently near 450 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is initially pointing north. Geomagnetic storming will be possible, especially if the Bz/IMF begins to point south.

Geomagnetic Storm: Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming observed at higher latitudes following a CME impact. Currently the solar wind speed remains elevated above 450 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been ranging from -5 to -11 nT south. Aurora sky watchers should remain alert for visible aurora while it is dark outside.

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Jul 30 0002 UTC
Deviation: 58 nT
Station: BOU

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/



Sun news July 30: G3 geomagnetic storm watch

Today’s top story: A chunk of solar stuff hit Earth earlier today. A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm threshold reached was trigger at 3 UTC on July 30. More G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storming up to a G3 (strong) is expected during the rest of today. This was caused by multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hurled from the sun during July 28-29. Alert, aurora chasers. Bring those cameras out, take all those beautiful photos, and share them with us. The Enlil model shows four CMEs released in the past few days by our star. It created a cannibal CME, which is expected to reach Earth on July 31-August 1. Get ready for some aurora-watching. This is certainly true for higher latitudes, but it could also be true for northern-tier U.S. states. Stay tuned for updates.

Last 24 hours: Nine M flares, one of them an M8.7 flare and another one an M6.4 kept kept sun activity at high levels in the past day. Solar flaring activity during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today) was 18 flares, nine M flares and 11 C flares. The largest event of the period was an M8.7 at 12.55 UTC on July 29 from AR3762.  The complete M flare list is:
•M1.6 at 12:22 UTC on July 29 by AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M8.7 at 12.55 UTC on July 29 by AR3762. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M4.3 at 14:46 UTC on July 29 by incoming region. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M6.4 at 19:57 UTC on July 29 by incoming region. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Baja in Mexico.
• M1.1 at 21:00 UTC on July 29 by AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M1.7 at 1:03 UTC on July 30 by AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
• M1.2 at 1:25 UTC on July 30 by AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• M1.3 at 1:32 UTC on July 30 by AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• M1.5 at 6:29 UTC on July 30 by AR3766. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the northeast India.
AR3768 was the lead flare producer with five flares, including two M flares and three C flares. Two active regions on the solar disk, AR3766 and AR3768 have beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. AR3765 and AR3770 also gained a beta-delta magnetic complexity while AR3762 keeps a beta-gamma configuration. The remaining 10 labeled active regions on the sun’s Earth-facing side have an alpha or a beta complexity. There is a newcomer that emerged just below the equator in the southwest quadrant now numbered AR3771.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 80%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME: An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection CME) associated with an M flare from active region AR3762 at 16:06 UTC on July 29 may reach us by midday, August 1.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is unsettled at the time of this writing (11 UTC on July 30). A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms was observed earlier today reaching the G1 threshold at 3 UTC on July 30. More G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storming is expected during today including chance for a G3 (strong) late today. Conditions for G1-G2 geomagnetic storms may be extended through tomorrow, July 31. This is due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from July 27-28. Alert aurora watchers. Good luck and clear skies!

Oh boy possible auroras tonight!



Thanks for keeping this thread updated.

It has a chance.

I love the technical discussion.  

We actually seen them in Arizona recently.

Thanks for the update, i'll keep an eye out.

Fingers crossed. I didn't have my good camera with me last time. This time, I'm ready.

July 30, 2024 @ 19:20 UTC (UPDATED)
Only a brief period of minor (G1) geomagnetic storming has been observed following a CME passage yesterday evening. The solar stream has gradually decreased to around 425 km/s and the Bz component is near neutral. A geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect for the next 24 hours should another CME pass Earth as forecast.
In other news, no major solar flares so far today to report with only low level M-Flares detected. The source of an M4 and M6 solar flares on Monday continues to turn into view and was assigned AR 3772. Old region 3738 from the previous rotation is also now turning back into from off the east limb. Moderate M-Flares will remain probable during the next 24 hours with a chance for an isolated X-Flare.

UPDATE: Just after posting the update above, a solar flare reaching towards the X1 threshold was observed. More to follow.

Stay tuned to SolarHam.com where you will find the most up to date space weather news and information.

July 30, 2024 @ 19:50 UTC
Just after I wrote my previous update, a near X-Flare currently peaking at M9.4 is in progress around newly assigned AR 3772 in the southeast quadrant. More to follow.

July 30, 2024 @ 19:50 UTC (UPDATED)
A near X-Flare (M9.4) was observed around newly assigned AR 3772 at 19:37 UTC (July 30). More to follow regarding if the event was eruptive or not. The region will continue to move into a better Earth facing position over the next several days.
UPDATE: The M9.4 solar flare around AR 3772 earlier this evening did produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). As you can tell by this image by LASCO C2, it is fairly narrow and directed to the south and away from Earth. The sunspot region will continue to rotate into a better Earth facing position over the next several days.

July 31, 2024 @ 06:15 UTC
Old sunspot region 3738, the possible source of farsided eruptions that past week or so, is now turning back into view from off the east limb. It just produced an M4.7 solar flare at 05:23 UTC (July 31st). Image below by SDO/HMI.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news July 31: Sunspot region AR3738 produced an X14 flare. Now it’s back!

Today’s top story: Sunspot region AR3738 produced an X flare and numerous M and C flares during its trip across the sun from July 5 to July 17. But during its trip across the far side, it produced an X14 flare, a fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME), and a blast of particles that were detected even on our side of the sun. This was observed thanks to the Solar Orbiter spacecraft. The powerful region is back, now numbered AR3774. This renumbered region produced an M4.8 before being labeled and fully in view. Now, we wait to see if it will live up to its earlier incarnations.

Almost an X flare! An incoming active region in the southeast quadrant blasted out an M9.4 flare showing big credentials. The eruption was produced when the sunspot had not received yet a number. Now it’s called AR3772 and previous to this M9.4 flare it produced another M1.9 flare yesterday. Is the guy we have been waiting for, producer of the X14 flare produced last week while it was on the far side? Or the one we are waiting for is the one barely showing on the solar horizon, unnumbered yet but looking pretty good sized? We’ll keep an eye on these guys. Meanwhile sun activity keeps at high levels thanks to these large flares. The announced geomagnetic field arrived early in the form of a G1 (minor) only but more G1-G2 are expected tomorrow August 1, read below. The sun granted us today with seven M flares and the cherry on top of the cake was a beautiful prominence on the southwest limb (edge). Stay with us for more sun news.

Last 24 hours: In the past day sun activity kept at high levels thanks to seven M flares, including an M9.4 flare added another large one and an M7.7. The flares during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today) included seven M flares and eight C flares. The largest event of the period was the M9.4 at 19:38 UTC on July 30 from AR3772. The complete M flare list is:
• M1.5 at 16:28 UTC on July 30 from AR3766. R1 (minor) radio blackout over  the Dominican Republic.
• M1.9 at 19:20 UTC on July 30 from AR3764. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Mar de Cortés.
• M9.4 at 19:38 UTC on July 30 AR3772. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M3.1 at 20:19 UTC on July 30 from AR3772. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M2.0 at 1:50 UTC on July 31 from AR3773. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• M4.8 at 5:23 UTC on July 31 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Myanmar.
• M7.7 at 6:46 UTC on July 31 from AR3768. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over India.
Active region AR3764 was the lead flare producer of the day with four flares, an M and three C flares. Three active regions on the Earth-facing solar disk keep a, delta magnetic region. AR3765 and AR3768 have a  beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity and AR3770 has a beta-delta complexity. AR3762 and AR3766 have a beta-gamma configuration, while the rest of the sunspot regions show an alpha or beta.  Currently, the sun has 12 labeled active regions on the Earth-facing side. There are three newcomers: AR3772, AR3773, and AR3774.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in the available chronograph imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on July 31). The expected CME arrived early yesterday causing a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm only. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for the rest today with a G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storm expected on August 1 due to the arrival of multiple CMEs that left the sun on July 28-29. Aurora watch alert continues of guys. Good luck aurora hunters and clear skies for you.

https://spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): Multiple CMEs are heading for Earth. They could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms when they arrive on July 31st and August 1st. During such storms, naked-eye auroras may be seen in northern-tier US states and central Europe. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

CANNIBAL CME SPARKS PHOTOGRAPHIC AURORAS: A Cannibal CME struck Earth's magnetic field on July 30th at 0027 UT. The impact sparked a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with photographic auroras as far south as Arizona:



"The auroras were not visible to the naked eye, but my camera was able to capture these faint red pillars from the south rim of the Grand Canyon," says photographer David Blanchard.

Auroras so faint they're visible only to cameras are not what we expected from a potent Cannibal CME. What happened? Inside this Cannibal CME, magnetic fields fields were pointing in the wrong direction; they did not connect well to Earth's magnetosphere. As a result, the storm was minor (G1) instead of strong (G3). CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

more images: from Aaron Watson in the West Elk Mountains of Colorado; from Alan Dyer near Gleichen, Alberta; from Carl Bernhardt in the Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona; from Chris Almquist of Ely, MN; from Jake Stehli of Winona, Minnesota

More pictures at the above link.


Real-time Gallery (appears to be delayed)
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/index.php?title=aurora

July 31, 2024 @ 16:20 UTC
Multiple mid to upper level M-Flares have been observed during the past 12 hours, including two flares at nearly the same time. AR 3772 produced an M6.0 flare peaking at 13:05 UTC. Meanwhile towards the west limb, AR 3762 appears to be responsible for an M4.4 flare that peaked at 13:32 UTC. Other events today includes an M7.7 flare around AR 3768 at 06:46 UTC and M4.7 around newly assigned AR 3774 (ex 3738). Stay tuned as solar activity is getting real spicy!.

Naturally, since I'm currently in an upper tier state, it's going to be cloudy at the times it would potentially be visible.

August 1, 2024 @ 02:10 UTC
The first distinct M-Flare of the month of August. An impulsive M6.3 solar flare was produced by AR 3773 in the southwest quadrant at 01:50 UTC (Aug 1). Despite the rapid nature of the event, some plasma appears to be leaving the flare site, but should likely be directed to the west and away from Earth.
Geomagentic Storm: Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming persists in the wake of at least a couple of CME passages since early Tuesday. Isolated periods of storming will remain possible during the next 24 hours while the solar wind stream remains enhanced.

August 1, 2024 @ 07:35 UTC
A long duration M8.2 solar flare was just observed around AR 3768 nearing the west limb at 07:09 UTC (August 1). The event appears to be eruptive and will likely produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). Due to the location towards the limb, the potential CME should be directed mostly towards the west and away from our planet.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 01 0712 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 739 km/s

There is currently a gap in available coronagraph from Wednesday, so potential CME activity from yesterday will still need to be analyzed.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 1:

Today’s top story:
Earth has been excited by the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the resulting auroras from geomagnetic storms. However, the sun has overshadowed this activity. Over the past day, we have observed 15 M flares from several active regions. Also, there is a collection of five regions with the potential for significant flaring: five sunspot groups with a delta magnetic region. This has been going on for several days, and now the old region, AR3738 (now AR3774), is coming into full view. So stay tuned for more action from the sun. And for those at higher latitudes, keep your aurora-watching gear handy. More auroral displays may happen over the next few days while the sun sends more stuff our way. Please consider sharing your auroral photos at EarthSky.

Last 24 hours:
Sun activity is high during the past day with 15 M flares,, three of them above M5. In our observation period between 11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today, the sun produced 23 flares; 15 and 8 C flares. The largest flare was an M8.1 at 7:08 UTC on August 1 from AR3768. The list of M flares  is:
• M6.0 by 13:05 UTC on July 31 from AR3772. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M4.4 by 13:32 UTC on July 31 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa.
• M1.4 at 16:31 UTC on July 31 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Dominican Republic.
• M5.4 at 18:37 UTC on July 31 from AR3756. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over Mexico.
• M1.3 at 21:55 UTC on July 31 from ARAR3767. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Hawaii.
• M1.0 at 22:50 UTC on July 31 AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Hawaii.
• M1.2 at 00:58 UTC on August 1 from AR3770. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M6.3 at 01:50 UTC on August 1. from AR3773. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• M1.0 at 02:25 UTC on August 1 from AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• M1.2 at 03:06 UTC ON August 1 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• M2.0 at 04:16 UTC on August 1 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Taiwan.
• M4.0 at 04:41 UTC on August 1 from AR3765. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Hong Kong.
• M1.5 at 05:56 UTC on August 1 from AR3765. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Myanmar.
• M1.3 at 06:06 UTC on August 1 from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Bangladesh.
• M8.1 at 07:08 UTC on August 1 from AR3768. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over Africa. The largest.
Active region AR3774 was the lead flare producer with eight flares, four M, and five C flares. Today, four active regions on the Earth-facing solar disk have a delta magnetic region. AR3765 and AR3768 have a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity and AR3770 has a beta-delta complexity.  AR3767 and AR3770 have a beta-delta configuration; AR3766 shows a beta-gamma, while the rest of the sunspot regions show an alpha or beta. The sun has 12 active regions on the Earth-facing side. There is a newcomer, AR3775.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) were observed in the available chronograph imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is unsettled at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 1). A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm was observed earlier in the period. A G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm level is anticipated later on during the day. Conditions may start to fade tomorrow August 2. Did you see the auroras last night? Share your photos with us!

https://spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): Another CME is expected to hit Earth today, Aug. 1st. NOAA forecasters say it could spark a G1 or G2-class geomagnetic storm. During such storms, naked-eye auroras may be seen in northern-tier US states and central Europe. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

AURORAS IN THE USA: Two more CMEs hit Earth on July 31st. Each impact was weak, but collectively they sparked a G1-class geomagnetic storm with auroras over Minnesota:



"My grandson is a huge space weather enthusiast and he was thrilled to watch the beautiful Northern Lights with me tonight," says photographer Greg Ash of Ely, MN. While Ash's family watched the display from Minnesota, photographic red auroras descended as far south as Nebraska.

Minor storming is expected to continue as Earth moves through the magnetized wake of these CMEs. Storm levels could jump to category G2 if another CME arrives on Aug. 1st, as expected. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

Hope we have a ZPM lying around.

Appreciate these updates.

Since even cheap camera phones have gotten good enough to capture low light pics in the last few years it can be very confusing seeing such fantastic pictures when to the naked eye there is just a dull red glow at best.

In my mind, it doesn't "count" unless you can see something with the naked eye IMO, but it's great there are some interesting pics being taken even on nights when the naked eye can't see much of anything.

I have noticed my AM and FM radio in my car has more static than normal....I would assume this might be the cause.

Texas here.

Subbed

August 1, 2024 @ 07:35 UTC
The long duration M8.2 solar flare early Thursday morning produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be heading mostly to the west. NOAA/SWPC are still predicting that the edge of the shock front will pass Earth by August 3rd. A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch was added for August 3-4. As you have probably figured out, we must take these forecast models with a grain of salt. As always, I will provide updates in the days ahead if the potential impact unfolds.

August 2, 2024 @ 09:00 UTC
The monthly solar flux and sunspot number averages for the month of July is now official. Both the SFI and SSN reached new highs for solar cycle 25 and highest values in over 22 years.
The solar flux average average was 198.6 and this is the highest it has been since February 2002 during solar cycle 23 when it was 205.6. The sunspot number average for last month was 196.5. This is the highest SSN value since December 2001 when the count was 213.4.

Not too bad for a solar cycle that many had destined to be one of the worst on record. Where do we go from here? We will find out over the next year during the expected solar maximum. Many more solar flares and geomagnetic storms still to come..

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 2: Activity is high! More M flares than Cs

Today’s top story: Wow! The M flares keep on coming. Another 24 hours with 15 M flares, including an M7.4, kept sun activity high.

Last 24 hours: Over the past day we saw 15 M flares. Most of them were small M flares, but one of them, the largest, was an M7.4. This kept sun activity at high levels. Between 11 UTC and 11 UTC today, the sun produced a total of 18 flares: 15 M and four C flares. The largest flare, the M7.4, was a long-duration event that peaked at 4:55 UTC on August 2 from AR3768. It produced an extended R2 (moderate) radio blackout that affected an area starting in Taiwan in the Philippine Sea at around 4:23 UTC  and extended through 6:13 UTC on August 2, affecting an area over Myanmar. The list of M flares is:
• M4.1 at 11:37 UTC on August 1 from AR3772. R1 (minor) radio blackout  the African Northwest.
• M4.2 at 11:47 UTC on August 1 from AR3772. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Northwest Africa.
• M1.1 at 16:15 UTC on August 1 from AR3764. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Dominican Republic.
• M1.3 at 16:37 UTC on August 1 from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Cuba.
• M1.6 at 16:47 UTC on August 1 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Cuba.
• M1.3 at 17:29 UTC on August 1 from AR3772. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Cuba.
• M1.2 at 20:22 UTC on August 1 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M1.4 at 23:08 UTC on August 1 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M1.0 at 02:01 UTC on August 2 from AR3765. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• M1.1 at 03:25 UTC on August 2 from AR3772. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• M1.2 at 03:58 UTC on August 2 from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippines.
• M7.4 at 04:55 UTC on August 2 from AR3768. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over China. Largest event
• M2.2 at 07:59 UTC on August 2 from AR3765. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Oman.
• M1.2 at 09:16 UTC on August 2 from AR3772. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Middle East.
• M1.6 at 09:51 UTC on August 2 from AR3766. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Middle East.
Active region AR3774 remains the lead flare producer. This time with five flares (three Ms and two Cs). Today, five active regions on the Earth-facing solar disk show a delta magnetic region, three of them,  AR3765, AR3768 and AR3772 have a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. In contrast, AR3767 and AR3770 have a beta-delta configuration. AR3766, AR3774, and AR3775 show a beta-gamma configuration, and the rest of the sunspot regions show alpha or beta. The sun has 12 active regions on the Earth-facing side. There is a newcomer: AR3776.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced during the M8.1 event by AR3768 on August 1 may provide a glancing blow on August 3. No other CME Earth-bound were observed in the available chronograph imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is unsettled at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 1). Quiet to active levels are anticipated for the rest of the day.  A G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storm may occur on August 3 due to the mentioned coronal mass ejection (CME) hurled by the sun on August 1.

https://spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): NOAA has issued a geomagnetic storm watch for Aug. 3rd, when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. Hurled into space by an M8-class solar flare, the CME could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm with naked-eye auroras in northern-tier US states. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

AURORAS IN THE USA: A Cannibal CME hit Earth on July 30th, followed by two lesser CMEs on July 31st. None of the impacts was strong, but together they sparked photographic auroras in more than a dozen US states. Terrence Cook was driving down I-80 near Billings, Montana, when the light show began:



"I pulled over to enjoy the show, and during the brightest lights of the night, two horses visited us from the dark," says Cook. "They even seemed to be aware of it, although much more interested in us."

Similar auroras could appear on Aug. 3rd when a potent CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The off-target CME *might* miss, but if it doesn't, G2-storms are likely. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

Where can I go to look for an accurate aurora map for the night?

@Torque556

You can use this one, but just remember that it's all estimates.  You never know where the auroras are going to be.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

Thanks a ton!

I really want another big one so I can photograph it. Come on massive ejection!