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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:12:33 AM EDT
[#1]
Trust but verify... Emphasis on the verify.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:14:01 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
He has crunched the numbers and has decided he would prefer to be the richer and more internationally acceptable boss of a better fed NK rather than the dead or deposed former boss of an even more devastated NK... |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:17:13 AM EDT
[#3]
33% , that's about the correct du troll/bot/nevertrump ratio on arfcom
you people are a joke 
the deal is already done what's being seen is just theater |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:19:17 AM EDT
[#4]
There's a complex relationship between the Norks and China, the U.N. sanctions were hurting China's regional economy, specifically the Dandong province. Many of the textiles and clothes that are labeled "Made in China" are exported to North Korea for finishing, then re-imported to China for export to the rest of the world. Xi told Fatboy if he didn't at least get on board, China wasn't going to protect the Norks. China doesn't want NK to have nukes either.
Keep in mind that the Chinese think of the Norks fondly, NK reminds China where it came from. The President simply leveraged a win/win for both China and the U.S. Now the real test will be whether the Chinese manage the "westernization" of the Norks, or if SK does...... |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:24:00 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
He has crunched the numbers and has decided he would prefer to be the richer and more internationally acceptable boss of a better fed NK rather than the dead or deposed former boss of an even more devastated NK... |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:29:02 AM EDT
[#6]
Trump/Pompeo/Mattis aren't chumps, I'm pretty confident that they will insist on the Norks doing the demolition and allowing thorough inspection up front, before we deliver our end.
That DMZ meeting was not Norks being Norks, that shit blew my mind. And it was frontpage news in Norkland, with spin kept to a minimum. Kim's already committed himself rather firmly. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:31:10 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trump/Pompeo/Mattis aren't chumps, I'm pretty confident that they will insist on the Norks doing the demolition and allowing thorough inspection up front, before we deliver our end. That DMZ meeting was not Norks being Norks, that shit blew my mind. And it was frontpage news in Norkland, with spin kept to a minimum. Kim's already committed himself rather firmly. I hope this time is different.................. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:32:09 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
He has crunched the numbers and has decided he would prefer to be the richer and more internationally acceptable boss of a better fed NK rather than the dead or deposed former boss of an even more devastated NK... I mean, If I were in his shoes, that's what I'd be doing. He could be lauded a "hero". |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:56:53 AM EDT
[#9]
GD....the place where everyone lamented the Iran deal as "you can't trust them...they will just keep doing it in secret", but when it comes to NK let's blindly ignore the fact that this is the same exact game they have always played, because "this time it feels different with KJU....we should totally trust him, I am sure he's changed".
Exactly what part of KJU's reign has led everyone to believe that he wants to fucking "westernize" his country? It would literally be the end of him.....what do you think happens when the outside world starts flowing in and the peasants start to see what a massive bowl of shit they have been fed for the last 60 years? Do you think they say "oh KJU, it's ok.....we forgive you for putting us under your tyrannical boot and killing half our families since you made this wonderful deal and we can watch youtube now"? This is the same shit he has ALWAYS done and why it's so laughable that we have made him and his country such a big deal the last decade when he is completely irrelevant on the world stage. Nukes are the only bargaining chip he has ever and will ever have. Nukes were always a means to an end with him....if he wanted to use them it would have already happened. I don't understand the need for any "deals" whatsoever with them or Iran.....how about "do whatever the fuck you want, but if one nuke leaves those borders you will cease to exist 5 minutes later". This is especially true for NK, as they have proven over and over again this is the way they "bargain" with the international community. The crazy muzzies in Paki have nukes and you don't see everyone freaking out about making some deal to disarm them.....why is that? Why do we pick and choose which lunatics are ok to have nukes? |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 8:57:53 AM EDT
[#10]
I dont trust him as far as I could poop him...
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Posted: 5/15/2018 9:11:03 AM EDT
[#11]
I'm not all that up to date on NK shenanigans, but I have a feeling that China told Rocket boy to shut it down or they would come in and push his shit in.
China knows Trump ain't dicking around like the last couple of retards. That said, never trust NK or China. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 9:40:02 AM EDT
[#12]
Why is everybody falling over themselves to credit China for making Kim crack?
Did China lament the possibility of nuclear war in person to TV news from a cabinet meeting? Did China dispatch 3 carrier battle groups, a ballistic missile submarine, and a large fraction of the planet's amphibious assault assets next door to NK? Did China strong arm SK into basing anti-ballistic missile systems? Did a Chinese equivalent of Mike Pompeo secretly go to Pyongyang - Pompeo then Director of the CIA and already tapped for SecState, a man who had publicly suggested killing Kim while running the agency that would be tasked with it? Trump literally sent the scariest man in the world to Pyongyang, with a nuclear war fleet pacing back and forth off shore, and when he came back with a selfie of himself grinning while shaking hands with a stunned looking Kim he was immediately promoted to chief diplomat. This belongs 100% to the Trump administration. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 9:45:40 AM EDT
[#13]
Miss me yet?
 Attached FileShould have made them glow in the dark in the 1950's. Nothing sincere about any of the Kim dynasty. Self interest is the only motivator. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:31:36 AM EDT
[#14]
Quoted:
What is your opinion? I personally think he is and is getting on board with potential prosperity in his country - for reasons. He's playing games. All their nuke missiles are probably conventional ballistic missiles with spent nuclear rods, dirty bombs. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:35:27 AM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:40:15 AM EDT
[#16]
We shall see.
It sure seems like he had some kind of epiphany, though, like Qaddafi did. I have friends who are convinced there was some sort of nuke disaster that convinced him to change his ways. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:44:42 AM EDT
[#17]
Why attempt to nuke us when he can bleed us dry financially and watch us implode under our own stupidity.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:51:49 AM EDT
[#18]
I like all these dipshits that say if NK denukes under trump he doesn’t deserve a peace prize. But these people don’t know what Obama got a peace prize for and say that if Obama had done it they have to rename it the Obama peace prize because it’d be so huge.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:51:52 AM EDT
[#19]
I can't believe this is actually a question or discussion. He is pulling a long con. This is a man who assassinated his brother with nerve gas. Who has killed his own family members since he came into power. This isn't a man you trust, or invite into your home.
His country is in shambles, he knows Trump won't cave in like zero did. He's playing Trump until he gets the necessary tools to begin to develop another nuke and we will be right at the beginning again. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:51:56 AM EDT
[#20]
The better question is if China is sincere about this whole thing.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:56:16 AM EDT
[#21]
I think we have something on him that is so damning that it's put him over the barrel.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 10:57:55 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Xi told Un to get rid of them I think this is the real catalyst to the change. China is losing tons of money right now, and this is part of the deal Trump is making with them. Trump has likely tied it to the ZTE deal. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:00:22 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think we have something on him that is so damning that it's put him over the barrel. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:07:25 AM EDT
[#24]
Always assume they’re playing games. However, at least we’re not giving them money to cheat.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:08:14 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Why is everybody falling over themselves to credit China for making Kim crack? Did China lament the possibility of nuclear war in person to TV news from a cabinet meeting? Did China dispatch 3 carrier battle groups, a ballistic missile submarine, and a large fraction of the planet's amphibious assault assets next door to NK? Did China strong arm SK into basing anti-ballistic missile systems? Did a Chinese equivalent of Mike Pompeo secretly go to Pyongyang - Pompeo then Director of the CIA and already tapped for SecState, a man who had publicly suggested killing Kim while running the agency that would be tasked with it? Trump literally sent the scariest man in the world to Pyongyang, with a nuclear war fleet pacing back and forth off shore, and when he came back with a selfie of himself grinning while shaking hands with a stunned looking Kim he was immediately promoted to chief diplomat. This belongs 100% to the Trump administration. Because the Norks have always hidden behind China, and only so much pressure can be exerted on them without China being on board. Do you not remember the standoff and how China threatened retaliation if the US struck first? ETA: I'm not saying this is all China's doing. Trump backed them into a corner with trade. They have to be part of the deal, though. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:09:15 AM EDT
[#26]
If everything works out the way it seems to be shaping up, then he is going to get the biggest denuclearization return of any Kim so far. Pompeo seems to have offered a huge pay off to get Kim to denuclearize, with sustainable benefits. I think he wants the return and the long term benefits of a more open relationship with the US and South Korea.
He is in a no win scenario. If he keeps his nukes, then he winds up getting Saddamed at some point. If he gives them up then he runs the risk of getting Gaddafied at some point. Setting himself up as a potential strategic interest for the US against China may be the best route to him staying in power and alive. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:15:14 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
He is FOS. But, if he does this, he will get the most money, aid and trust he can - then, invade South Korea under threat of using the 100 warheads he already has stashed away in his secret bunker. Then he can sit back and reap the rewards of South Korean labor, all the while selling off a warhead here and there for cash. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:18:48 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Because the Norks have always hidden behind China, and only so much pressure can be exerted on them without China being on board. Do you not remember the standoff and how China threatened retaliation if the US struck first? A few months ago, Kim sent his sister to the Olympics and she got the rock star treatment. Then, Kim made a state visit to China to meet with Xi. Who knows what happened behind the scenes at that meeting? Did Xi tell Kim that the nuke thing had run it's course and it was time to pack it in? Did Xi tell Kim something else that made Kim choose to pivot towards America on his own? The only thing that I am absolutely sure of is that this whole problem has involved a lot of things going on behind the scenes and people like us don't have anything close to the full picture. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:19:03 AM EDT
[#29]
I think that the positive perspective on this from a lot of members here is from a stary-eyed view of Trump. If Obama was doing this and Kim was saying he wanted to play ball and disarm, would the support for this be the same? It just seems like Kim doing what Korea's always done. Kim can rebuild a tunnel. The collapse was at the actual location where they detonated this bombs. Unless they setup their facility right there, then I doubt it fell into the collapse or that any important scientists were killed. I didn't see any of that in my cursory Google search. I hope North Korea changes, and I don't think Donald is a fool. But I think trusting the Norks at all and giving them anything is foolish. They need to show some internal change from totalitarianism before we should do anything good for them.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:23:03 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I have friends who are convinced there was some sort of nuke disaster that convinced him to change his ways. It is suspected that the regime lost a significant chunk of infrastructure as well...infrastructure they cannot rebuild now that we are seriously working to stop China from giving them new shit and making it plain that Beijing will now suffer penalties for Chubs' bad behavior. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:41:54 AM EDT
[#31]
In all probability he recognizes that his nukes have gotten him all they can at this point. He got his seat at the table. He gets to negotiate from a position of having something the other side wants gone.
My guess is he is probably just negotiating for a safe, secure, and comfortable retirement with a new "peacemaker" title. I think the international press will work with him to make him a victim and sacrificial idealist leader. They'll market the situation that Jong-Un was trapped by the politics and was doing the right thing for his people, but when he found out the "truth" of how unfair the small resource distribution his small country faced in the world economy, he decided the only way to save his people was to give in to the imperialist running dogs - for his beloved people. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:44:53 AM EDT
[#32]
He is sincere about survival.
If he is more convinced that giving it up will lead to his survival, he will. If not, he won't. I don't think he cares either way if you remove the survival implications from the equation. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:46:05 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
33% , that's about the correct du troll/bot/nevertrump ratio on arfcom you people are a joke
the deal is already done what's being seen is just theater |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:47:29 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes, his tunnel into the mountain collasped, he would need to rebuild everything. Likely lost a bunch of people that knew how to build a bomb. A minor contributing factor I believe is his sister. He is close with his sister and trusts her. She went to South Korea during the Olympics and, as a young woman, must have been impressed with the glamour and prosperity she saw. Made playing ball with South Korea and America a little easier. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:49:27 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Miss me yet? https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/47839/NMAH-AHB2007q10525-544458.JPG Should have made them glow in the dark in the 1950's. Nothing sincere about any of the Kim dynasty. Self interest is the only motivator. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:52:29 AM EDT
[#36]
I just got back from a few weeks in Korea working with the ROK Marines- this all went down while I was there. I talked with them a lot about it. The recurring theme is "cautious optimism". They don't trust Kim, but the feeling is that this MAY be a little different. He lost his test site, and bottom line is NK is suffering. They're having a problem with people getting tech and realizing what a shit hole they live in, food, etc.
He very well may be playing games, but IMO I think there's a chance. 
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:56:16 AM EDT
[#37]
Attached FileEveryone in my unit was shocked when the Commies threw in the towel. No fight... No Spetznantz driving in as tourist. No tractor trailers loaded with crack Airborne. We saw the wall come down on AFN. Followed with pieces of the wall for sale in front of the PX. If Trump pulls this off like Reagan did and IF Kim lives up to his deal. 2nd term for Trump.. 
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Posted: 5/15/2018 11:58:15 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So far, every indication he's being sincere. The devil's in the details, so site verifications will tell whether he is or not. Quote HistoryQuoted:
So far, every indication he's being sincere. The devil's in the details, so site verifications will tell whether he is or not. Quoted:
There isn't a chance in hell that he's being sincere. That's, why I come to GD. A.W.D. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:01:34 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Pfft, calling him a lunatic is easy - a real lunatic knows exactly what they're doing. Besides, I think the party behind him are the real crazy ones. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:08:02 PM EDT
[#40]
I suspect Kim Jong-Un is not as fully committed to Communism as his dad and granpa were. Fully committed to being a dictator living a lavish lifestyle, sure. But being a Communist ruler where your people eat grass? Not so much.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:14:32 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
There isn't a chance in hell that he's being sincere. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:16:25 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think since his nuclear test site essentially collapsed...which likely took a significant amount of his infrastructure for building that shit with it...Chubs is now in a position where the big gun he was hoping to wield turns out to be a water pistol. And now that that's failed he still has a starving population, likely faces the possibility of a coup either from his own people or sponsored by the Chicoms, and has no hope of winning a war if he starts one or we decide to make one. And so a deal with America and South Korea starts to look like the only option left where he doesn't end up hanged or shot. He's not so much getting on board with making his country better as he is waking up with a horse's head in his bed. He's not a nice person. He's a shithead who has one option for survival...so he's picking that. This is textbook for how you handle bad men. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:16:46 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes, his tunnel into the mountain collasped, he would need to rebuild everything. Likely lost a bunch of people that knew how to build a bomb. No mountain = no nuke program. May of lost scientists that had certain knowledge. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:23:33 PM EDT
[#44]
For the time being sure but not in the long run.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:32:58 PM EDT
[#45]
It is to the overall advantage of Both Red China and Russia to have a NORK Communist client state. Kim can promise anything, and hide what is not wished to be seen, even from the Russians and Chicoms, if need be. Russia, and particularly Red China, have vast influence over the Norks. The Norks will do as they insist, although the NORKs will probably try to play one against the other.
If the past is any guide, the NORKs are not to be trusted at all. Given that the NORKs are a vassal state of Red China, and to a lesser extent, Russia, the fundamental question is: "Can the Chicoms and Russians be trusted to keep the NORKs in line?" Again, I doubt that as well. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:33:55 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
There isn't a chance in hell that he's being sincere. |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:36:06 PM EDT
[#47]
I believe he listens to "Morning Joe" and believes Trump will be impeached any day now...therefore he is going along until the new guy, who will be weaker than Trump allows him to get back to being a dictator of a failing empire.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:38:17 PM EDT
[#48]
I think he switched sides and wants to be on the winning team.
His legacy down his current path vs the legacy of peace and reunification. How do you want to be remembered? |
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:42:03 PM EDT
[#49]
I'm cautiously optimistic, I hope it works out, but I don't fully trust them.
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Posted: 5/15/2018 12:49:42 PM EDT
[#50]
The Little Fat Man knows his ass is on the line so he has no choice but to get on board. Xi Jinping told the Little Fat Man he will play nice because it will benefit China in the long run and he will get some benefits out of it as well. China knows if a war kicks off millions of tons of war ships will be in the South China Sea which it is not good for anyone, certainly not their trade.
Trump and his team are smart enough to know that verification before any benefit is the key, and that ongoing verification is an absolute. |
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