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Posted: 9/20/2022 9:59:32 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Currently, yes. But everything reverts to the mean, eventually. The mean for bonds is waaaaay less than 9.6%. The mean for U.S. stock is, what, 8%? This is not an argument against ibonds, BTW. They are currently great if you have a small amount to invest. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Series I Bonds. Great way to accumulate $100,000 over time. Currently at 9.6%. Currently, yes. But everything reverts to the mean, eventually. The mean for bonds is waaaaay less than 9.6%. The mean for U.S. stock is, what, 8%? This is not an argument against ibonds, BTW. They are currently great if you have a small amount to invest. Yeah longterm its probably shit. However we should not assume previous metrics built in previous periods will hold in this period. Also depending on your age and portfolio generally some long term held I bonds aren't a bad idea.not all your money but some. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 10:18:13 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: True, but.... Inflation isn't moderating even as we had 2 down GDP quarters.... What if the economy is much worse and inflation is still running hot. The level of uncharted territory with the combination of all these massive long term fuck ups cannot be understated. Only a fool says they know how this will end. Anything is possible. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Wait until interest rates reach double digits Nobody believes this. The economy will be in deep recession before that happens. It's close now, based on the inverted yield curve and other metrics. See my previous post. True, but.... Inflation isn't moderating even as we had 2 down GDP quarters.... What if the economy is much worse and inflation is still running hot. The level of uncharted territory with the combination of all these massive long term fuck ups cannot be understated. Only a fool says they know how this will end. Anything is possible. After the mid-terms the wheels start to come off. Fuel prices will rapidly rise and everything else follows. FJB promised a dark winter. This is it. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 10:19:26 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 6% tax free muni's are attractive Where get? What State? |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 10:20:32 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yeah longterm its probably shit. However we should not assume previous metrics built in previous periods will hold in this period. Also depending on your age and portfolio generally some long term held I bonds aren't a bad idea.not all your money but some. The limit on ibonds is so low it doesn't do me much good. If the cap was $100k or more I'd bite. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 10:21:40 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: After the mid-terms the wheels start to come off. Fuel prices will rapidly rise and everything else follows. FJB promised a dark winter. This is it. The pros are saying recession in 2023, the yield curve says likewise, so your prediction matches that. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 10:22:47 PM EDT
[#6]
Depends on your risk tolerance and time. Bonds are basically “lose money very slowly”. They are a shock absorber to riskier stuff.
Cap preservation aspect. If that’s what you’re looking for, then sure. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 10:28:13 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Depends on your risk tolerance and time. Bonds are basically “lose money slowly”. They are a shock absorber to riskier stuff. Cap preservation aspect. If that’s what you’re looking for, then sure. They are also "make money slowly" in a declining or stable interest rate environment. Ask me how I know. They aren't supposed to gain like stocks. They aren't supposed to lose like stocks, either, but Brandon has managed to achieve that. If there was no demand for them, they wouldn't dwarf the stock market capitalization. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 10:37:51 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They are also "make money slowly" in a declining or stable interest rate environment. Ask me how I know. They aren't supposed to gain like stocks. They aren't supposed to lose like stocks, either, but Brandon has managed to achieve that. If there was no demand for them, they wouldn't dwarf the stock market capitalization. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Depends on your risk tolerance and time. Bonds are basically “lose money slowly”. They are a shock absorber to riskier stuff. Cap preservation aspect. If that’s what you’re looking for, then sure. They are also "make money slowly" in a declining or stable interest rate environment. Ask me how I know. They aren't supposed to gain like stocks. They aren't supposed to lose like stocks, either, but Brandon has managed to achieve that. If there was no demand for them, they wouldn't dwarf the stock market capitalization. True. That’s why I view them as a shock absorber/cap preservation stuff. If that’s what you’re after, and I understand where you’re at, then why not? I dread moving to cap preservation/income mode. All I know is growth in terms of goals/risk/time. But I’ll have to cross that bridge when it comes. The growth stuff will feed the cap preservation/income stuff It’s the often argued what percentage of bonds to own. Well that depends on one’s risk v time. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 10:37:53 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Currently, yes. But everything reverts to the mean, eventually. The mean for bonds is waaaaay less than 9.6%. The mean for U.S. stock is, what, 8%? This is not an argument against ibonds, BTW. They are currently great if you have a small amount to invest. Either Series I bonds or online savings accounts at 1.9%. I'm not a buyer in today's stock market but I still want to earn on my investment dollars. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 11:24:34 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Either Series I bonds or online savings accounts at 1.9%. I'm not a buyer in today's stock market but I still want to earn on my investment dollars. I agree, but the limits are too damn low. Let's say you stash the max of $10k, and get 9.6% for 6 months (the rate adjusts after 6 mos.) That's $480 ROI before taxes. What am I gonna do with $480 minus taxes? That's groceries for a couple weeks. That's barely one tire for my truck. If you read the background on ibonds, they were designed for the poors to help give them a leg up. Don't get me wrong, I like the concept, but it doesn't fit my needs at all. If it works for you, by all means do it. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 11:42:46 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I agree, but the limits are too damn low. Let's say you stash the max of $10k, and get 9.6% for 6 months (the rate adjusts after 6 mos.) That's $480 ROI before taxes. What am I gonna do with $480 minus taxes? That's groceries for a couple weeks. That's barely one tire for my truck. If you read the background on ibonds, they were designed for the poors to help give them a leg up. Don't get me wrong, I like the concept, but it doesn't fit my needs at all. If it works for you, by all means do it. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Either Series I bonds or online savings accounts at 1.9%. I'm not a buyer in today's stock market but I still want to earn on my investment dollars. I agree, but the limits are too damn low. Let's say you stash the max of $10k, and get 9.6% for 6 months (the rate adjusts after 6 mos.) That's $480 ROI before taxes. What am I gonna do with $480 minus taxes? That's groceries for a couple weeks. That's barely one tire for my truck. If you read the background on ibonds, they were designed for the poors to help give them a leg up. Don't get me wrong, I like the concept, but it doesn't fit my needs at all. If it works for you, by all means do it. My buddy says: 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:03:59 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Either Series I bonds or online savings accounts at 1.9%. I'm not a buyer in today's stock market but I still want to earn on my investment dollars. I agree, but the limits are too damn low. Let's say you stash the max of $10k, and get 9.6% for 6 months (the rate adjusts after 6 mos.) That's $480 ROI before taxes. What am I gonna do with $480 minus taxes? That's groceries for a couple weeks. That's barely one tire for my truck. If you read the background on ibonds, they were designed for the poors to help give them a leg up. Don't get me wrong, I like the concept, but it doesn't fit my needs at all. If it works for you, by all means do it. My buddy says: https://c.tenor.com/GJ19mHTZJ6EAAAAC/gza-you-need-to-diversity-you-bonds.gif To me, $480 means scratch off tickets, malt liquor, a carton of Kool's and a night at the TT bar. I'm not turning it down. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:29:59 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Some good replies ITT but I want to choke the mofos out who keep parrotting "supply chain issues" as the cause of the inflation and interest rate hikes. IT'S NOT THE SUPPLY CHAIN. The fedgov has printed FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS out of thin air in the last couple years. It's sucking all the air out of the room. "Supply chain issues" are a HUGE DIVERSION to make you think it's ALL YOUR FAULT. Need a new car so you can get to work? Your fault. Need to put food on the table? All your fault. Need some asswipe or paper towels? All your fault. Want a widget on amazon? It's all your fault. In the meantime, the printing presses are burning up. Plus all the interest that will accumulate. Good lord, people are such morons when it comes to some stuff. They WANT to feel guilty. The supply chain issues, while real, are a TINY FRACTION of the cause compared to govt. spending and borrowing. Open your eyes, folks. IT'S NOT YOUR FAULT. While the extra 5 trillion created and spent by the govt has an impact, that has been going on for decades and is not helping, but the primary reason is the price of oil which is a direct result of govt policy. Oil does the work in every stage of the economy. From raw materials to final delivery of goods and services everywhere in the world. The inflation in housing is the direct result of people fleeing cities and started during the saint floyd celebrations as people took stay at home jobs and city money and bought places way above what the local rural economies could sustain, that and big corporations and Chinese nationals buying property along with the fed buying all the MDSs. Cars are way up because of the chip shortage, people paying well above MSRP because they need a new vehicle. But the inflation of food and bills is all about the price of oil. We had govt creating trillions before and inflation stayed low because the price of oil stayed low. There are many causes, but the precipitating cause is the price of oil skyrocketing due to govt policy and then all the other reasons, including the govt spending like a drunken sailer, all contribute. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:36:47 AM EDT
[#14]
You can buy the max in ibonds and also buy another max that you can gift your wife, etc., earning the current rates even if you bought the max in their name this year. You then gift them next year or the year after when you don't buy ibonds in their name for that year. When they are gifted they have already earned interest since purchased. Another way to max out ibond purchases if you have too much cash on hand, and want to take advantage of the current rates.
edit to say you could buy the max in gifts for several years, but I personally wouldn't buy more than 1-2 years since the rates will drop at some point. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:54:54 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The limit on ibonds is so low it doesn't do me much good. If the cap was $100k or more I'd bite. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Yeah longterm its probably shit. However we should not assume previous metrics built in previous periods will hold in this period. Also depending on your age and portfolio generally some long term held I bonds aren't a bad idea.not all your money but some. The limit on ibonds is so low it doesn't do me much good. If the cap was $100k or more I'd bite. That "low" limit lends itself to the idea of holding some bonds in that you would tend to hold longer and they typically provide a ballast to your portfolio. If you bought 10k (or 15k, or 25k if you're married) a year for 10+ years, you have a decent chunk of bonds (supposedly) keeping up with inflation. That's the long game. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:25:45 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Can you let us know where this CD for 4% is? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'm betting 100-basis-point increase by the way CD rates have spiked. A one year CD is now at 4%. Can you let us know where this CD for 4% is? I haven't seen anything at 4% yet, but a six month t-bill is 3.9%. The next auction might be higher. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 7:23:18 AM EDT
[#17]
Maybe someone can explain to me in very simple terms, why bonds are making sense now. I may be wrong (please correct me, if so) but I seem to be seeing falling bond prices and very little return being paid. Am I not seeing this clearly? Why would investing in that be good?
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:04:04 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Maybe someone can explain to me in very simple terms, why bonds are making sense now. I may be wrong (please correct me, if so) but I seem to be seeing falling bond prices and very little return being paid. Am I not seeing this clearly? Why would investing in that be good? To me, there are 3 reasons why I would buy bonds right now: -If the bond yield is higher than your mortgage rate after taxes. Instead of paying extra towards the principal, buy bonds that yield a higher return after taxes. It is "safer" than putting the money in the market or sitting in a bank account earning next to nothing. -You expect the Fed to pivot and lower rates -There is a liquidity crisis like in 2008 Personally I would not be buying anything longer than 1 year because the yield curve is inverted, and at some point there will be a debt crisis. The weighted average US debt maturity is 5 years. For every 1% interest rates go up, it adds $300B per year to the interest payments. This is simply unsustainable, because the interest payments will take up a bigger and bigger portion of tax revenues as the principal and interest rates increase. Where the breaking point is anyone's guess. The US will either default or print away the debt. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:37:45 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The limit on ibonds is so low it doesn't do me much good. If the cap was $100k or more I'd bite. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Yeah longterm its probably shit. However we should not assume previous metrics built in previous periods will hold in this period. Also depending on your age and portfolio generally some long term held I bonds aren't a bad idea.not all your money but some. The limit on ibonds is so low it doesn't do me much good. If the cap was $100k or more I'd bite. Get a wife and kids |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:42:20 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: While the extra 5 trillion created and spent by the govt has an impact, that has been going on for decades and is not helping, but the primary reason is the price of oil which is a direct result of govt policy. Oil does the work in every stage of the economy. From raw materials to final delivery of goods and services everywhere in the world. The inflation in housing is the direct result of people fleeing cities and started during the saint floyd celebrations as people took stay at home jobs and city money and bought places way above what the local rural economies could sustain, that and big corporations and Chinese nationals buying property along with the fed buying all the MDSs. Cars are way up because of the chip shortage, people paying well above MSRP because they need a new vehicle. But the inflation of food and bills is all about the price of oil. We had govt creating trillions before and inflation stayed low because the price of oil stayed low. There are many causes, but the precipitating cause is the price of oil skyrocketing due to govt policy and then all the other reasons, including the govt spending like a drunken sailer, all contribute. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Some good replies ITT but I want to choke the mofos out who keep parrotting "supply chain issues" as the cause of the inflation and interest rate hikes. IT'S NOT THE SUPPLY CHAIN. The fedgov has printed FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS out of thin air in the last couple years. It's sucking all the air out of the room. "Supply chain issues" are a HUGE DIVERSION to make you think it's ALL YOUR FAULT. Need a new car so you can get to work? Your fault. Need to put food on the table? All your fault. Need some asswipe or paper towels? All your fault. Want a widget on amazon? It's all your fault. In the meantime, the printing presses are burning up. Plus all the interest that will accumulate. Good lord, people are such morons when it comes to some stuff. They WANT to feel guilty. The supply chain issues, while real, are a TINY FRACTION of the cause compared to govt. spending and borrowing. Open your eyes, folks. IT'S NOT YOUR FAULT. While the extra 5 trillion created and spent by the govt has an impact, that has been going on for decades and is not helping, but the primary reason is the price of oil which is a direct result of govt policy. Oil does the work in every stage of the economy. From raw materials to final delivery of goods and services everywhere in the world. The inflation in housing is the direct result of people fleeing cities and started during the saint floyd celebrations as people took stay at home jobs and city money and bought places way above what the local rural economies could sustain, that and big corporations and Chinese nationals buying property along with the fed buying all the MDSs. Cars are way up because of the chip shortage, people paying well above MSRP because they need a new vehicle. But the inflation of food and bills is all about the price of oil. We had govt creating trillions before and inflation stayed low because the price of oil stayed low. There are many causes, but the precipitating cause is the price of oil skyrocketing due to govt policy and then all the other reasons, including the govt spending like a drunken sailer, all contribute. I think you are confusing the match with the gasoline and missing big picture deflationary pressures that allowed their money printing activity for so long.then you are saying oh well then this does not cause inflation something else does. Bit that is wrong without all that stupidity we would have been in deflation the last decade and that would have been a good thing. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:43:32 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Since the halcyon years of the stock market are over, everyone is trying to preserve cash value, using different strategies. So you are doing the smart thing. Correct me if I am wrong, but I-bond purchases are limited to $10,000 a year and cannot be held in a traditional IRA or Roth IRA. Correct? Anyone? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I recently started buying $500/week in I Bonds. Converting cash savings to preserve value. Since the halcyon years of the stock market are over, everyone is trying to preserve cash value, using different strategies. So you are doing the smart thing. Correct me if I am wrong, but I-bond purchases are limited to $10,000 a year and cannot be held in a traditional IRA or Roth IRA. Correct? Anyone? I believe this is correct, but you and your spouse can each buy 10k worth. I regret not doing this years ago. I am trying to decide whether or not to start rolling $1,666 a month in once the new year rolls around or just drop the 20k lump sum on jan 1. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:53:17 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I haven't seen anything at 4% yet, but a six month t-bill is 3.9%. The next auction might be higher. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: I'm betting 100-basis-point increase by the way CD rates have spiked. A one year CD is now at 4%. Can you let us know where this CD for 4% is? I haven't seen anything at 4% yet, but a six month t-bill is 3.9%. The next auction might be higher. Yesterday I was looking at several listed at Schwab for 4%. I started to buy some but decided to hold off for a couple of days, I think they will hit 4.5% within the week. They have been trending up at a good pace this year. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:56:11 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Current Inflation is not the result of too much money as much as it is the result of supply chain issues and the price of fuel making everything at every stage much more expensive. Raising rates for business and consumer debt will have little to no effect. Most business is contracting not trying to expand, they don't need loans. Most people have already started cutting back on spending disposable income, they aren't expanding their purchases with debt, they are paying necessities with debt and that will only get worse with time. Just like the oil embargo in the late 1970s, inflation is the result of increased fuel prices, that inflation only stopped when the price of fuel came back down. It had nothing to do with interest rates. Until the pedo in chief starts back up the keystone pipeline and in cuffs the oil industry and allows them access to leases on federal land again and they stop with this bullshit of going to a carbon zero economy and the oil industry builds more refineries, this inflation will not subside. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The Fed is meeting this week and is expected to raise rates by 0.75% (or maybe 1%, tops). Will it be enough to tame inflation? If they manage to bring inflation to heel, it would be a good time to buy new issue bonds, or bond funds. Is now the time, or soon? I like bonds. I think everyone should have some in their portfolio. Current Inflation is not the result of too much money as much as it is the result of supply chain issues and the price of fuel making everything at every stage much more expensive. Raising rates for business and consumer debt will have little to no effect. Most business is contracting not trying to expand, they don't need loans. Most people have already started cutting back on spending disposable income, they aren't expanding their purchases with debt, they are paying necessities with debt and that will only get worse with time. Just like the oil embargo in the late 1970s, inflation is the result of increased fuel prices, that inflation only stopped when the price of fuel came back down. It had nothing to do with interest rates. Until the pedo in chief starts back up the keystone pipeline and in cuffs the oil industry and allows them access to leases on federal land again and they stop with this bullshit of going to a carbon zero economy and the oil industry builds more refineries, this inflation will not subside. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:58:05 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I recently started buying $500/week in I Bonds. Converting cash savings to preserve value. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:58:52 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 80% of the dollars ever produced were produced by the government since 2020. By my hillbilly math that means products will trend to 5x what the price was in 2020. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: The Fed is meeting this week and is expected to raise rates by 0.75% (or maybe 1%, tops). Will it be enough to tame inflation? If they manage to bring inflation to heel, it would be a good time to buy new issue bonds, or bond funds. Is now the time, or soon? I like bonds. I think everyone should have some in their portfolio. Current Inflation is not the result of too much money as much as it is the result of supply chain issues and the price of fuel making everything at every stage much more expensive. Raising rates for business and consumer debt will have little to no effect. Most business is contracting not trying to expand, they don't need loans. Most people have already started cutting back on spending disposable income, they aren't expanding their purchases with debt, they are paying necessities with debt and that will only get worse with time. Just like the oil embargo in the late 1970s, inflation is the result of increased fuel prices, that inflation only stopped when the price of fuel came back down. It had nothing to do with interest rates. Until the pedo in chief starts back up the keystone pipeline and in cuffs the oil industry and allows them access to leases on federal land again and they stop with this bullshit of going to a carbon zero economy and the oil industry builds more refineries, this inflation will not subside. Democrats did this to the USA. Remember that |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:00:38 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Get a wife and kids BTDT |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:01:21 PM EDT
[#27]
This is not 1929 and the safety bonds offered in the 1930s does not exist today.
Greg Mannarino (Trader's Choice) has been warning that the bond markets goes first. When the Fed Res went Brrrrrrrrrrr! those moneys went towards pumping up equities, bonds and the housing market. That dollar bubble will burst (it's already in the process of being rejected as the world's reserve currency) and with it the asset classes it promoted. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:02:34 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You must not have lived through the S&L/FSLIC debacle. I did, and the insurance paid off. Not a penny was lost by anyone. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: FDIC would be worthless if we ever needed it. Remember its still private insurance. You must not have lived through the S&L/FSLIC debacle. I did, and the insurance paid off. Not a penny was lost by anyone. That was then, this is now. Jay561 is right. Even if the FDIC could make good the losses, what does that $100k buy you? A Starph*ck's coffee? [Dk-Prof]LOL[/DK-Prof] As a reminder we're amid a paradigm change and all that we grew up under will be going out the window with the change. What we have been witnessing is the greatest wealth transfer in humanity's history. Weiji or as Git Even! author George Hayduke said, "Where there's confusion, there's profit." |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:03:31 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I agree, but the limits are too damn low. Let's say you stash the max of $10k, and get 9.6% for 6 months (the rate adjusts after 6 mos.) That's $480 ROI before taxes. What am I gonna do with $480 minus taxes? That's groceries for a couple weeks. That's barely one tire for my truck. If you read the background on ibonds, they were designed for the poors to help give them a leg up. Don't get me wrong, I like the concept, but it doesn't fit my needs at all. If it works for you, by all means do it. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Either Series I bonds or online savings accounts at 1.9%. I'm not a buyer in today's stock market but I still want to earn on my investment dollars. I agree, but the limits are too damn low. Let's say you stash the max of $10k, and get 9.6% for 6 months (the rate adjusts after 6 mos.) That's $480 ROI before taxes. What am I gonna do with $480 minus taxes? That's groceries for a couple weeks. That's barely one tire for my truck. If you read the background on ibonds, they were designed for the poors to help give them a leg up. Don't get me wrong, I like the concept, but it doesn't fit my needs at all. If it works for you, by all means do it. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:04:51 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Democrats did this to the USA. Remember that Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The Fed is meeting this week and is expected to raise rates by 0.75% (or maybe 1%, tops). Will it be enough to tame inflation? If they manage to bring inflation to heel, it would be a good time to buy new issue bonds, or bond funds. Is now the time, or soon? I like bonds. I think everyone should have some in their portfolio. Current Inflation is not the result of too much money as much as it is the result of supply chain issues and the price of fuel making everything at every stage much more expensive. Raising rates for business and consumer debt will have little to no effect. Most business is contracting not trying to expand, they don't need loans. Most people have already started cutting back on spending disposable income, they aren't expanding their purchases with debt, they are paying necessities with debt and that will only get worse with time. Just like the oil embargo in the late 1970s, inflation is the result of increased fuel prices, that inflation only stopped when the price of fuel came back down. It had nothing to do with interest rates. Until the pedo in chief starts back up the keystone pipeline and in cuffs the oil industry and allows them access to leases on federal land again and they stop with this bullshit of going to a carbon zero economy and the oil industry builds more refineries, this inflation will not subside. Democrats did this to the USA. Remember that Yes, but trace it back to 1913 when Princeton Univ. President turned POTUS Demoncrap Woody Wilson signed the Fed Res Act into law. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:11:31 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: While the extra 5 trillion created and spent by the govt has an impact, that has been going on for decades and is not helping, but the primary reason is the price of oil which is a direct result of govt policy. Oil does the work in every stage of the economy. From raw materials to final delivery of goods and services everywhere in the world. The inflation in housing is the direct result of people fleeing cities and started during the saint floyd celebrations as people took stay at home jobs and city money and bought places way above what the local rural economies could sustain, that and big corporations and Chinese nationals buying property along with the fed buying all the MDSs. Cars are way up because of the chip shortage, people paying well above MSRP because they need a new vehicle. But the inflation of food and bills is all about the price of oil. We had govt creating trillions before and inflation stayed low because the price of oil stayed low. There are many causes, but the precipitating cause is the price of oil skyrocketing due to govt policy and then all the other reasons, including the govt spending like a drunken sailer, all contribute. You have touched on the truth. I said this in my thread on Alex Epstein, author of "Fossil Future." When you declare war on energy as the Brandon regime has done, there are consequences. Everything we do and make depends on energy. Everywhere we drive, all the goods being transported, the list is endless. Brandon has declared energy war on America and this inflation is a direct result. On top of that, the 5 TRILLION DOLLARS of printing is sucking the air out of the room. That $$$ is being directed to many inefficient activities, plus the interest that must be paid on that. More inflation. It's almost like it was planned that way. Nobody is that stupid...are they? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:13:23 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Maybe someone can explain to me in very simple terms, why bonds are making sense now. I may be wrong (please correct me, if so) but I seem to be seeing falling bond prices and very little return being paid. Am I not seeing this clearly? Why would investing in that be good? As the author of this thread, I'm not arguing that bonds make sense at this moment. But they might. IDK. They make a LOT of sense IF we are at or near the top of interest rate hikes. If not, then not. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:14:36 PM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:23:08 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's an hours worth of work to get 9.6% on potentially 20k. Unless you make 400$ an hour its worth it but I am a blessed poor. That 9.6% is only guaranteed for 6 mos. If the fed pivots, that 9.6% rate goes buh bye. 9.6% x $20k x 6 mos. = $960 MINUS TAXES. This might be a lot to you. It's literally peanuts for some of us. It's two tires for my truck. OTOH, if you kept that $20k in cash on the sidelines, and bought the stock market on a dip, and the market rebounded (a lot of assumptions I know), you could make that same $960 in a few days. The big market dip a few days ago, I lost a nice BMW. Oooof. It works the other way, too. I have made $$$ by having a cash stash, and buying at the right time. You places your bets and takes your chances. Let's be clear, I like some bonds in my portfolio. I'm wondering whether it's a good time to increase my bond holdings. GD is my last, best hope for clarity. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:25:16 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That 9.6% is only guaranteed for 6 mos. If the fed pivots, that 9.6% rate goes buh bye. 9.6% x $20k x 6 mos. = $960 MINUS TAXES. This might be a lot to you. It's literally peanuts for some of us. It's two tires for my truck. OTOH, if you kept that $20k in cash on the sidelines, and bought the stock market on a dip, and the market rebounded (a lot of assumptions I know), you could make that same $960 in a few days. The big market dip a few days ago, I lost a nice BMW. Oooof. It works the other way, too. I have made $$$ by having a cash stash, and buying at the right time. You places your bets and takes your chances. Let's be clear, I like some bonds in my portfolio. I'm wondering whether it's a good time to increase my bond holdings. GD is my last, best hope for clarity. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It's an hours worth of work to get 9.6% on potentially 20k. Unless you make 400$ an hour its worth it but I am a blessed poor. That 9.6% is only guaranteed for 6 mos. If the fed pivots, that 9.6% rate goes buh bye. 9.6% x $20k x 6 mos. = $960 MINUS TAXES. This might be a lot to you. It's literally peanuts for some of us. It's two tires for my truck. OTOH, if you kept that $20k in cash on the sidelines, and bought the stock market on a dip, and the market rebounded (a lot of assumptions I know), you could make that same $960 in a few days. The big market dip a few days ago, I lost a nice BMW. Oooof. It works the other way, too. I have made $$$ by having a cash stash, and buying at the right time. You places your bets and takes your chances. Let's be clear, I like some bonds in my portfolio. I'm wondering whether it's a good time to increase my bond holdings. GD is my last, best hope for clarity. 1. I use I bonds right now and other bonds that are near 0 risk like short term treasury for my cash savings not investing.this is cash I fully intend to spend on night vision, new roof etc or deploy as investments in the future. 2. Please stop saying bonds and be specific. Issuer and term. 3. I wouldnt touch long term anytime soon and fuck corporate soon to be default debt. I won't touch any bond paying below inflation rate if there is any credit risk. I won't go further out on the yield curve for pennies. I won't touch muni unless I betting on a federal bail out. All the municipalities and states are going bk with the crash from unfunded pension liability. 4. If the fed pivots you will be getting 20% on your I bonds not 9.6. 5. Long term bonds I'll like after I see a sign of pivot probably 2024. 6. Corporate bonds not until I see some major bankruptcies wash out. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:42:32 PM EDT
[#36]
I just had a conversation with my portfolio adviser this morning prior to the announcement from the fed. I asked him to move me out of equities(except for utilities, consumer staples, and energy), which they had been doing slowly over the last month, and into cash/money market funds/bonds. This is a temporary move for the next 9 months or so. I hope to move back into the market next year, hopefully around May/June of '23. It all depends on where the market is at that time. Just looking to limit my losses and preserve what I have.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:58:41 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I just had a conversation with my portfolio adviser this morning prior to the announcement from the fed. I asked him to move me out of equities(except for utilities, consumer staples, and energy), which they had been doing slowly over the last month, and into cash/money market funds/bonds. This is a temporary move for the next 9 months or so. I hope to move back into the market next year, hopefully around May/June of '23. It all depends on where the market is at that time. Just looking to limit my losses and preserve what I have. Why have an advisor if you tell him.what to do? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:02:49 PM EDT
[#38]
Bond prices go down, as interest goes up
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:55:07 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why have an advisor if you tell him.what to do? I have several advisors. They advise me. Sometimes I do what they advise, sometimes I don't. My money my rules. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:56:05 PM EDT
[#40]
It's time to buy nods.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:57:30 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 1. I use I bonds right now and other bonds that are near 0 risk like short term treasury for my cash savings not investing.this is cash I fully intend to spend on night vision, new roof etc or deploy as investments in the future. 2. Please stop saying bonds and be specific. Issuer and term. 3. I wouldnt touch long term anytime soon and fuck corporate soon to be default debt. I won't touch any bond paying below inflation rate if there is any credit risk. I won't go further out on the yield curve for pennies. I won't touch muni unless I betting on a federal bail out. All the municipalities and states are going bk with the crash from unfunded pension liability. 4. If the fed pivots you will be getting 20% on your I bonds not 9.6. 5. Long term bonds I'll like after I see a sign of pivot probably 2024. 6. Corporate bonds not until I see some major bankruptcies wash out. As to #1, you have to hold those ibonds for quite a while to get the high interest rate. Unless you are planning to buy the NV, roof etc. way out there, it's not a good place to stash cash for short term needs. Read the fine print. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:06:08 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As to #1, you have to hold those ibonds for quite a while to get the high interest rate. Unless you are planning to buy the NV, roof etc. way out there, it's not a good place to stash cash for short term needs. Read the fine print. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: 1. I use I bonds right now and other bonds that are near 0 risk like short term treasury for my cash savings not investing.this is cash I fully intend to spend on night vision, new roof etc or deploy as investments in the future. 2. Please stop saying bonds and be specific. Issuer and term. 3. I wouldnt touch long term anytime soon and fuck corporate soon to be default debt. I won't touch any bond paying below inflation rate if there is any credit risk. I won't go further out on the yield curve for pennies. I won't touch muni unless I betting on a federal bail out. All the municipalities and states are going bk with the crash from unfunded pension liability. 4. If the fed pivots you will be getting 20% on your I bonds not 9.6. 5. Long term bonds I'll like after I see a sign of pivot probably 2024. 6. Corporate bonds not until I see some major bankruptcies wash out. As to #1, you have to hold those ibonds for quite a while to get the high interest rate. Unless you are planning to buy the NV, roof etc. way out there, it's not a good place to stash cash for short term needs. Read the fine print. 12 months even with the penalty for less than 5 years would exceed all similar risk investments by a lot. Short term meaning anything 1 year or less. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 7:50:43 PM EDT
[#43]
3 month CD's are now 3.40% Everything longer is near 4% or above.
The next Fed meetings are Nov 1-2 and December 13-14. Interest rate bumps are expected at both. Stay short term. FJB. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 7:55:09 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why have an advisor if you tell him.what to do? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I just had a conversation with my portfolio adviser this morning prior to the announcement from the fed. I asked him to move me out of equities(except for utilities, consumer staples, and energy), which they had been doing slowly over the last month, and into cash/money market funds/bonds. This is a temporary move for the next 9 months or so. I hope to move back into the market next year, hopefully around May/June of '23. It all depends on where the market is at that time. Just looking to limit my losses and preserve what I have. Why have an advisor if you tell him.what to do? Churn baby churn! |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 9:49:30 PM EDT
[#45]
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Posted: 9/22/2022 10:04:10 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think you are confusing the match with the gasoline and missing big picture deflationary pressures that allowed their money printing activity for so long.then you are saying oh well then this does not cause inflation something else does. Bit that is wrong without all that stupidity we would have been in deflation the last decade and that would have been a good thing. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Some good replies ITT but I want to choke the mofos out who keep parrotting "supply chain issues" as the cause of the inflation and interest rate hikes. IT'S NOT THE SUPPLY CHAIN. The fedgov has printed FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS out of thin air in the last couple years. It's sucking all the air out of the room. "Supply chain issues" are a HUGE DIVERSION to make you think it's ALL YOUR FAULT. Need a new car so you can get to work? Your fault. Need to put food on the table? All your fault. Need some asswipe or paper towels? All your fault. Want a widget on amazon? It's all your fault. In the meantime, the printing presses are burning up. Plus all the interest that will accumulate. Good lord, people are such morons when it comes to some stuff. They WANT to feel guilty. The supply chain issues, while real, are a TINY FRACTION of the cause compared to govt. spending and borrowing. Open your eyes, folks. IT'S NOT YOUR FAULT. While the extra 5 trillion created and spent by the govt has an impact, that has been going on for decades and is not helping, but the primary reason is the price of oil which is a direct result of govt policy. Oil does the work in every stage of the economy. From raw materials to final delivery of goods and services everywhere in the world. The inflation in housing is the direct result of people fleeing cities and started during the saint floyd celebrations as people took stay at home jobs and city money and bought places way above what the local rural economies could sustain, that and big corporations and Chinese nationals buying property along with the fed buying all the MDSs. Cars are way up because of the chip shortage, people paying well above MSRP because they need a new vehicle. But the inflation of food and bills is all about the price of oil. We had govt creating trillions before and inflation stayed low because the price of oil stayed low. There are many causes, but the precipitating cause is the price of oil skyrocketing due to govt policy and then all the other reasons, including the govt spending like a drunken sailer, all contribute. I think you are confusing the match with the gasoline and missing big picture deflationary pressures that allowed their money printing activity for so long.then you are saying oh well then this does not cause inflation something else does. Bit that is wrong without all that stupidity we would have been in deflation the last decade and that would have been a good thing. Very true, but I was talking more about the acute trigger, which I think is the price of fuel. If you want to talk root cause of all this allowing all this madness to grow to the level it is today, it would be coming off the gold standard that allows kicking the can down the road and creating money from nothing. Remember the war bonds from WW1 and WW2. Those were a thing because the govt simply could not just print money without increasing the holdings of silver and gold, so they had to sell bonds to finance the war, much like a town can’t print money so they sell a bond for a new police station or school. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 10:13:48 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 80% of the dollars ever produced were produced by the government since 2020. By my hillbilly math that means products will trend to 5x what the price was in 2020. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: The Fed is meeting this week and is expected to raise rates by 0.75% (or maybe 1%, tops). Will it be enough to tame inflation? If they manage to bring inflation to heel, it would be a good time to buy new issue bonds, or bond funds. Is now the time, or soon? I like bonds. I think everyone should have some in their portfolio. Current Inflation is not the result of too much money as much as it is the result of supply chain issues and the price of fuel making everything at every stage much more expensive. Raising rates for business and consumer debt will have little to no effect. Most business is contracting not trying to expand, they don't need loans. Most people have already started cutting back on spending disposable income, they aren't expanding their purchases with debt, they are paying necessities with debt and that will only get worse with time. Just like the oil embargo in the late 1970s, inflation is the result of increased fuel prices, that inflation only stopped when the price of fuel came back down. It had nothing to do with interest rates. Until the pedo in chief starts back up the keystone pipeline and in cuffs the oil industry and allows them access to leases on federal land again and they stop with this bullshit of going to a carbon zero economy and the oil industry builds more refineries, this inflation will not subside. I will not totally disagree with that, but much of that money went over seas as foreign aid, shoring up the desire for countries to hold dollars as reserve currency making the dollar stronger. There are many things at play, but part of the reason 80% of the dollars ever produced were produced since 2020 ( if accurate, just going by what you stated ) is that because of coming off the gold standard, the govt has been able to cause inflation on purpose by creating money from thin air. There was almost no inflation due to having the need for reserves of silver and gold, for the first almost 200 years of the country. It is only since coming off the international gold standard in 1971 that inflation has gone nuts and it was done to kick the can down the road. In 1964, 1 dollar of silver coin was worth 1 dollar. Today that same 4 silver quarters are worth more than $14 simply because the govt creates dollars from thin air starting in 1971. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 10:18:37 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You have touched on the truth. I said this in my thread on Alex Epstein, author of "Fossil Future." When you declare war on energy as the Brandon regime has done, there are consequences. Everything we do and make depends on energy. Everywhere we drive, all the goods being transported, the list is endless. Brandon has declared energy war on America and this inflation is a direct result. On top of that, the 5 TRILLION DOLLARS of printing is sucking the air out of the room. That $$$ is being directed to many inefficient activities, plus the interest that must be paid on that. More inflation. It's almost like it was planned that way. Nobody is that stupid...are they? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: While the extra 5 trillion created and spent by the govt has an impact, that has been going on for decades and is not helping, but the primary reason is the price of oil which is a direct result of govt policy. Oil does the work in every stage of the economy. From raw materials to final delivery of goods and services everywhere in the world. The inflation in housing is the direct result of people fleeing cities and started during the saint floyd celebrations as people took stay at home jobs and city money and bought places way above what the local rural economies could sustain, that and big corporations and Chinese nationals buying property along with the fed buying all the MDSs. Cars are way up because of the chip shortage, people paying well above MSRP because they need a new vehicle. But the inflation of food and bills is all about the price of oil. We had govt creating trillions before and inflation stayed low because the price of oil stayed low. There are many causes, but the precipitating cause is the price of oil skyrocketing due to govt policy and then all the other reasons, including the govt spending like a drunken sailer, all contribute. You have touched on the truth. I said this in my thread on Alex Epstein, author of "Fossil Future." When you declare war on energy as the Brandon regime has done, there are consequences. Everything we do and make depends on energy. Everywhere we drive, all the goods being transported, the list is endless. Brandon has declared energy war on America and this inflation is a direct result. On top of that, the 5 TRILLION DOLLARS of printing is sucking the air out of the room. That $$$ is being directed to many inefficient activities, plus the interest that must be paid on that. More inflation. It's almost like it was planned that way. Nobody is that stupid...are they? No they are not stupid, they are getting rich from it. Everybody gets affected by inflation but the people that profit from it are the ones that get the new money first before everybody else and that new money for a short time is at the worth of the old money before it causes inflation. It is wealth transfer nothing more. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 10:29:30 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's time to buy nods. And thermals. Not a bad idea. Own the night and with thermal, it's harder for someone to escape detection even in daylight. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 11:04:40 AM EDT
[#50]
TreasuryDirect is a huge pain and I have to get a form notarized to set up my account.
So short term CD might be the ticket for me. Is Fidelity the best place to go? |
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