Israel currently under attack (Page 1033 of 1034)
Syrian sources confirmed to Bloomberg an earlier Reuters report that Mossad chief Roman Gofman spoke with Syrian FM al-Shibani last week. They described it as a "warning call" in which Israel "reclarified its red lines." A security official told Kan News that Israel had tried to reach understandings with Syrian President al-Sharaa through indirect dialogue. After the talks failed, Israel updated the U.S. with sensitive intelligence pointing to Turkish attempts to establish itself at a Syrian base about 70 km from Turkey's border. Israel called it a violation of the status quo and struck the base before Turkish forces arrived.
The AFP reports that Yemen’s Saudi-backed government believes the Houthis are preparing a ground push toward coastal areas near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, potentially threatening one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints. Yemen’s information minister said the group is trying to establish conditions to seize control of the strait, while three Houthi military sources told AFP that about 2,000 fighters and rocket launchers had been moved toward front lines south of Hodeida. This that this is not the first sign of Houthi pressure around Bab al-Mandab. Earlier reporting had already indicated Houthi forces were moving toward the Red Sea coast near Hodeida and Mokha, and Reuters reported that missiles and drones had been positioned near the strait. What is new in today's AFP report is the more explicit claim that the Houthis may be preparing a ground operation to seize coastal territory, not just threaten shipping from stand-off positions. Something worth keeping an eye on.
Strikes on Hamas operatives in Gaza continue after Israel received a "green light" from the Trump administration, Kann reports. A security source: "Israel does not believe Hamas will disarm, therefore the IDF will continue to thwart threats, will not withdraw from the yellow line, and will not begin reconstruction operations in the Strip." |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Link to full article The Israeli military on Wednesday said criminal investigations would be opened into two prominent incidents of suspected war crimes by forces during the fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip in recent years, while three other high-profile cases would be closed. The incidents being investigated by the Military Police included the killing of 6-year-old Hind Rajab along with six of her family members and two medics in Gaza City in January 2024; and the killing of 15 rescue workers in a convoy of ambulances and emergency vehicles in Rafah in March 2025. Meanwhile, the cases being closed included a deadly strike on a group of aid workers with the World Central Kitchen organization in the central Gaza Strip in April 2024; a strike on a building used by aid group Doctors Without Borders (MSF) in Khan Younis that killed two members in February 2024; and the deaths of another two MSF employees who were driving in a convoy in Gaza City in November 2023. The high-level General Staff Fact-Finding Assessment Mechanism, an independent military body responsible for investigating unusual incidents amid the war, has so far completed around 150 probes and handed over their details to the Military Advocate General, the IDF’s top legal body, for review. The MAG Corps then decides whether to open a criminal investigation and later file charges. “Recently, legal decisions were made regarding five incidents that received public attention,” the military said in a statement. The MAG Corps dismissed three of these high-profile probes, but said the other should be investigated by the Military Police due to suspected criminal offenses. On April 1, 2024, Israeli forces ordered a strike on a convoy of WCK vehicles that officers suspected carried a Hamas gunman, despite a low level of confidence in the assessment and against army regulations. The strike left seven humanitarian workers dead. The forces did not identify the vehicles as belonging to WCK when the strike was ordered, according to the mechanism’s investigation. The mechanism’s investigation found that WCK had hired an armed security force to accompany the convoy to protect it from looting, a move that had not been coordinated with the army. During the incident, Israeli troops spotted an armed man on an aid truck that was part of the convoy and thought other vehicles surrounding the truck were Hamas operatives trying to take control of it, according to the probe. After the convoy reached a warehouse to drop off the aid, several people were incorrectly identified by the Israeli forces as armed. Those people, aid workers who were not actually armed, entered vehicles and traveled south, and deviated from a route that WCK had coordinated in advance with the military. The troops therefore believed Hamas had taken control of the convoy before it reached the warehouse, and that Hamas operatives were in the vehicles that drove away from it afterward. The cars were then targeted. The investigation found that the army did try to contact WCK representatives to confirm that their members were not inside the cars that had driven away from the warehouse, but “these attempts, during the half-hour in which the convoy’s vehicles were monitored as being believed to contain Hamas operatives as stated, were unsuccessful.” Following the investigation at the time, then-IDF chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi ordered the removal of Col. (res.) Nochi Mendel — the chief of staff of the Nahal Infantry Brigade amid the war — and the brigade’s firepower coordination officer, who held the rank of major, over their involvement in ordering the strike. Additionally, Halevi reprimanded the then-commander of Southern Command, Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman, for his “overall responsibility for the incident,” as well as the then-commander of the 162nd Division, Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen, and the then-commander of the Nahal Brigade, Col. Yair Zukerman. In its statement on Tuesday, the military said that “in light of prior professional acquaintance with one of those involved in the incident,” Military Advocate General Maj. Gen. Itai Ofir refrained from “personally making a decision in this case,” and instead the decision was made by Chief Military Prosecutor Col. Eli Levertov. “After examining all the findings of the factual assessment, it was decided that despite failures in the process of forming the assessment that Hamas operatives were traveling in the vehicles, it was found that the commanders’ decisions did not cross the criminal threshold, in light of the sequence of suspicious signs and the overall operational circumstances,” the IDF said. That being the case, Levertov ruled that “there was no reasonable suspicion of the committing of a criminal offense warranting the opening of an investigation or the taking of additional measures against any of those involved in the incident” beyond those taken by Halevi at the time. January 2024 killing of nine Palestinians, including 6-year-old Hind Rajab On January 29, 2024, Israeli forces reportedly struck a vehicle belonging to the Hamada family in Gaza City, killing five of the occupants, while two initially survived — Hind Rajab and her cousin Lian. Hind Rajab spent hours on the phone with dispatchers pleading for help with the sound of shooting echoing around her. When a Palestine Red Crescent Society ambulance arrived at the scene, a shell was fired at it, killing two paramedics, according to reports at the time. Days later, the bodies of the seven members of the Hamada family were recovered, including Hind and Lian Rajab, along with the two paramedics. The military said Wednesday that the mechanism’s investigation found that troops had fired at the Hamada family’s car as it approached forces, “traveling in the opposite direction to an evacuation route” that was published by the IDF to residents of the area. “After examining the findings and in light of alleged failures concerning the coordination of the movement of the Red Crescent ambulance, it was decided to order further examination of the incident through a Military Police investigation,” the IDF said. March 2025 killing of 15 rescue workers in Gaza’s Rafah On March 23, 2025, the IDF began an operation to encircle Rafah’s Tel Sultan neighborhood. As part of the offensive, soldiers of the Golani Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit were stationed in an ambush on a road exiting Tel Sultan. Over the course of several hours, the Golani soldiers fired on ambulances, emergency vehicles, and a United Nations car driving through the area, in some cases suspecting them of being Hamas vehicles. A total of 15 Palestinians were killed in the incident, and the IDF posthumously identified six as Hamas operatives. In the morning, the troops decided to gather the bodies all in one spot and cover them with an iron mesh, and crushed the vehicles while pushing them off the road. At the time, the deputy commander of the Golani reconnaissance unit was removed from his role, and the commander of the 14th Reserve Armored Brigade — the unit leading the operation in Rafah when the killing of the medics took place — was formally censured. “After examining the findings of the investigation, and upon finding that the conduct of the firing during the incident raised reasonable suspicion of the committing of an offense, it was decided to continue examining the matter through a Military Police investigation,” the IDF said. February 2024 killing of two Doctors Without Borders members On February 20, 2024, the military struck a building in Khan Younis that was only afterward identified as belonging to aid group Doctors Without Borders, known by the French acronym MSF. The strike killed two women and injured seven people. The mechanism’s investigation found that during an offensive in the area against Hamas, troops identified a building “located at a topographical point overlooking the route on which they were moving.” After assessing that the building posed a threat to the forces, a single shell was fired at one of its windows. The investigation noted that, unlike other structures in the area, the lights in the MSF building were off, and no movement was observed in or around it before the troops fired the shell. At the time, the troops did not have “up-to-date information that the building was affiliated with Doctors Without Borders,” and could not identify the MSF signage that was placed at the front of the building, as they were moving behind it, according to the IDF. The MAG, after examining the findings of the mechanism’s investigation, “determined that the forces had fired for a military purpose, at a target that they assessed, due to its location under the circumstances described, constituted a military target. “Although a discrepancy was identified in that the forces did not have up-to-date information that the building was a known site of Doctors Without Borders, it was determined that, under the operational circumstances described, there was no basis for further examination through a Military Police investigation,” the military said. However, in light of “certain failures identified in the attack process,” the MAG ordered “an examination of the need to take command measures against any of those involved.” November 2023 killing of two Doctors Without Borders members On November 18, 2023, Israeli forces fired at an MSF convoy in the Gaza Strip, leading to the deaths of two passengers. According to the mechanism’s probe, the five-car convoy carrying MSF personnel from Gaza City to the organization’s clinic in Khan Younis had been coordinated with the military the previous day. However, the investigation found that the precise details of the convoy’s one-way route were only approved shortly before the vehicles set out, and before a force at an army checkpoint was aware of it. The convoy arrived at the IDF checkpoint in the afternoon, but the vehicles were ordered to wait until the matter was clarified. “After some time, fearing that they would not reach their destination before nightfall, they decided, on their own initiative and without proper coordination, to turn back and return to the organization’s facilities in Gaza City,” the mechanism’s investigation found, adding that “this was despite IDF personnel clarifying to the members of the convoy that the checkpoint’s operating hours had been extended, and that it was not possible to coordinate the convoy’s return to Gaza City at that time.” The troops asked the MSF convoy to wait near the checkpoint until the matter was clarified, so they could then continue south to Khan Younis, and additionally told them that they would not be able to return to Gaza City without coordination, as “such movement could endanger them.” The army says the MSF convoy ignored the instructions and began returning to Gaza City. IDF troops stationed along the route spotted the convoy approaching them while driving in the opposite direction to that approved by the military’s evacuation orders, and fired several warning shots. The investigation found that the warning shots were not directed at the vehicles themselves, but only to prevent them from continuing to approach. Despite this, the convoy continued driving and “came within a few hundred meters of the IDF troops, in a manner perceived by the force as a real threat,” the investigation said, noting that the forces perceived the convoy as a threat due to “patterns of activity of terror organizations in the area.” The troops fired additional warning shots at the road at a distance of around 100 meters from where the first car in the convoy was located, in accordance with army protocols, the probe found. “According to the findings of the investigation, it was found that there was a possibility that the unfortunate deaths of two of the convoy’s passengers were caused by fragments from the warning fire,” the military said. Because the probe did not find that the forces fired directly at the convoy at any point, the MAG ruled that in this case, “the incident did not raise reasonable suspicion of the committing of a criminal offense.” The aid group Doctors Without Borders says two people were killed when building housing staff in the Gaza Strip was struck during an Israeli operation in an area where Palestinians have been told to seek shelter. “While details are still emerging, ambulance crews have now reached the site, where at least two family members of our colleagues have been killed and six people wounded. We are horrified by what has taken place,” the group says in a post on X. The attack took place in Muwasi, a sandy, mostly undeveloped strip of land along the coast that has been transformed into a sprawling tent camp with little in the way of basic services. Doctors Without Borders, known by the French acronym MSF, does not identify the source of the fire. The Israeli military says it is looking into the reports. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
The U.S. military has quietly established a shipping corridor through the southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz, with 15–20 tankers reportedly transiting in and out each night under U.S. military guidance. Roughly 10 million barrels of oil a day—around half the pre-war volume—are being injected into global markets, according to Axios. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
NEW: The U.S. Treasury is re-designating Hezbollah for acting on behalf of Iran’s IRGC-QF and sanctioning 10 people accused of moving cash for the group. Treasury says the network used commercial flights between Lebanon, Turkey, the UAE and Iran to move hundreds of millions of dollars outside the formal banking system.
Full WSJ article referenced above President Trump’s effort to squeeze Iran into submission will depend heavily on curbing one of the country’s biggest economic lifelines: Dubai. The United Arab Emirates said late Tuesday that it has suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran, potentially threatening Tehran’s access to a major source of imports and a financial back door to the world. The move follows weeks of Trump administration cajoling of the U.A.E. to crack down on Iranian financial networks operating in the country, telling Emirati officials that targeting money flows linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could have a greater impact on Tehran than the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, according to people familiar with the matter. The U.S. has also urged the U.A.E. during the war to take tougher action against sanctioned Iranian entities and other networks operating covertly in the Emirates, the people said. “Today, I am also announcing that ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences,” Trump said on social media late Wednesday. “Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies—It all needs to stop NOW. You know who you are.” The president didn’t specify which countries he had in mind but said he wants all U.S. allies to stand with him. If implemented broadly, the U.A.E. step could significantly curb Tehran’s access to foreign currency and global trade networks as the Iranian economy buckles under soaring inflation, sanctions and wartime disruption. The Trump administration hopes that could increase pressure on Iran to strike a deal. But severing those links will be difficult. Much of the activity is deliberately obscured. U.S. sanctions orders in recent years show that oil revenues, foreign-currency trades and payments for Iranian entities have long moved through shell companies and exchange houses in Dubai, often without an Iranian name appearing on the transaction. Cutting off Iran would also require Emirati authorities to crack down much more aggressively on opaque financial and trading activity, which could hurt Dubai’s role as a freewheeling global hub for commerce, capital and re-exports. “When you look at Iranian sanctions evasion and Iran’s ability to earn money from illicit oil sales, Dubai is a major hub for illicit financial flows,” said former U.S. sanctions official Max Meizlish, who is now a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The U.A.E. taking action against direct trade and financial activity is important but the reality is that a great deal of indirect activity flows through banks in Dubai supporting Iran’s shadow-banking and illicit-financing operations.” The U.A.E. action followed weeks of escalating tensions, including what Emirati officials say were Iranian attacks on seven of its ships this month alone. On Tuesday, Iran fired two ballistic missiles toward the U.A.E., triggering the country’s air defenses. The Emirates’ Defense Ministry said the missiles were aimed at maritime traffic and fell into the sea. The U.A.E. moves to limit dealings with Iran had been planned as part of an effort to deter the Revolutionary Guard’s attacks on its ships. Emirati officials see the latest measures as part of a gradual escalation rather than a wholesale break with Tehran, the people familiar with the matter said. The U.A.E. is expected to move step by step, beginning with new restrictions on cargo and potentially expanding to a broader crackdown on Iranian-linked entities if the Revolutionary Guard continues its strikes. The approach reflects the U.A.E.’s preference for testing what works while preserving room to adjust. U.A.E. policymakers worry Washington’s strategy of inflicting deeper economic pain on Iran could hurt the segment of Gulf states’ economies that relies on tourism and trade rather than oil, and eventually provoke further Iranian military retaliation, the people said. Emirati officials also want to keep some channels to Tehran open so they retain a diplomatic option if the Trump administration’s pressure campaign fails, they said. The U.A.E. didn’t respond to a request for comment. An administration official said the U.S. sanctions and blockade have crippled Iran’s economy and that Trump has more levers to pull. Earlier in the war, the U.A.E. suspended direct cargo shipping with Iran and launched a broader crackdown on Iranian activity in the country, including canceling visas and shutting schools and clubs. After engaging in sporadic fighting and warning of major escalation last month, Trump has pivoted toward trying to grind down Iran economically. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week indicated that Washington would slap new restrictions on Iran’s economy in the coming days, in what would be a “one-two punch” along with the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. To squeeze Iran harder, it needs the U.A.E. to join in. The Emirates sits just across the Persian Gulf and has deep commercial, historical and cultural links with its larger neighbor, even though the two governments have frequently been at odds. Before the war, the U.A.E. was Iran’s largest source of imports ahead of China, supplying more than 30% of the country’s total—about $21 billion worth—in 2024, according to the World Trade Organization. The U.A.E. has for years served as a key financial hub for Iranian companies and individuals looking to work around Western sanctions, according to analysts tracking Tehran’s activities and the U.S. Treasury. Iran’s sanctions-evasion network has helped Tehran continue selling oil overseas and channel the proceeds toward weapons programs and allied regional groups, they say. Iran has set up front companies in the U.A.E. to collect oil payments, settle transactions and obscure where the money originated, according to the Treasury and analysts tracking Tehran’s activities. In 2024, $9 billion passing through correspondent accounts maintained by U.S. banks appears to have been tied to clandestine Iranian financial activity, according to the Treasury Department. The Treasury said U.A.E.-based firms—mostly in Dubai, which is one of the country’s seven emirates—received 62% of those funds. Iran has also relied on a shadow fleet of older tankers to transport sanctioned crude while masking the vessels’ movements and ownership structures. Many tankers tied to Iran’s shadow trade are owned or managed by companies based in the U.A.E., according to the Treasury. The U.A.E. has previously said it adheres to sanctions and has a strong commitment to protect the integrity of the global financial system. Even with the U.A.E.’s newly announced measures, tackling that parallel financing web would remain a challenge, analysts say. “It is doable but with limits,” said Eric Alter, the dean of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, another of the emirates. The government can shut down official banking and major port traffic, but it “cannot police every local partner, every free-zone or every small-vessel movement across seven emirates with different commercial cultures,” he said.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Iran warned Friday it would deliver a "crushing" response to any new U.S. threats, after Washington promised its toughest sanctions yet. Tehran condemned the move as "economic terrorism." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the measures, aimed at squeezing Iran without raising oil prices, will be detailed Monday. As of 19 August
Red Sea traffic rebounds Shipping activity across two key Middle East chokepoints moved in opposite directions on 18 August. Confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings declined 17% from the previous day to 10, with six vessels exiting the MEG and four entering. Five transits used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, while none were confirmed through the Hormuz TSS. At Bab el-Mandeb, confirmed crossings increased 53% to 46, with 30 vessels entering the Red Sea and 16 exiting. No dark transits were recorded. There was also a new IMO-confirmed attack on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY in the Strait of Hormuz on 17 August, resulting in the death of one seafarer.
Lebanese outlet Nidaa' al-Watan reports Israel carried out covert operations near the Ali al-Tahr ridge in southern Lebanon, killing a large number of Hezbollah operatives and IRGC personnel. The operations have reportedly expanded north of the Litani River, with the goal of opening a path toward Mount A-Rihan.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
NEW: There is no indication that economic pressure on the regime has changed the anti-concessions position of some top Iranian officials, even while a group of Iranian officials responsible for managing the economy (“realists”) are increasingly warning that worsening economic pressure could threaten regime stability. These officials also appear to openly advocate ending the war to reduce the economic cost to the regime. Other Key Takeaways: The failure of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) appears to have further weakened the pro-concession, “realist” camp relative to Vahidi and other anti-concession officials. Regime decision-making may therefore take a long time to react, even as the economy gets much worse. Vahidi and other anti-concession officials appear to have a higher tolerance for domestic unrest because they may calculate that the regime can contain and suppress renewed protests without changing course. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is resisting US efforts to economically isolate Iran, but Chinese economic engagement cannot offset the blockade if Iran cannot physically supply its largest oil customer.
Full article Over the past few days new billboards have appeared in Tehran, Iran’s capital. They depict the seven men who have taken charge in Iran since Ali Khamenei, the former supreme leader, was killed in an Israeli air strike on February 28th. Most remarkable is what the billboards do not show. There is no sign of Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, who has not been seen in public since he was appointed. Nor are there any of the traditional religious symbols, such as the black and red flags of Imams Ali and Hussein. Only one of the seven men wears a turban. The billboards are the latest sign that a new crop of leaders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is consolidating power in Iran. Battle-hardened and results-driven, they are focused on security and repression, and are turning the theocratic foundations of the Islamic republic into a military dictatorship. Though they may not have entirely dropped a pragmatic approach to the conflict with America, military regimes often draw legitimacy from the constant threat of war. That suggests America and its allies should expect the new leadership to be more uncompromising than the previous one. Fronting the self-declared “top of the country’s security and defence” on the billboard and dressed in a suit is Mohsen Rezaei. He is the new national-security adviser, a former presidential candidate and the longest-serving chief of the IRGC, which he led through the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88 and the reconstruction that followed. Five men wear military fatigues, including the head of the navy who oversees Iran’s attacks on Gulf shipping. Next to him is Ahmad Vahidi, the IRGC’s commander-in-chief. Besides being instrumental in attempts to suppress the women’s movement to cast off the veil four years ago, he founded the Quds Force, the IRGC’s foreign arm, which nurtures its network of regional proxies. Hussein Taeb, the only man with a turban, used to run the IRGC’s intelligence agency and now heads the basij, its paramilitary volunteer force entrusted with keeping protesters off the streets. Some veteran Iran-watchers see the men’s takeover as the triumph of hardliners, who seek the expulsion of America from the region, over pragmatists led by the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He was instrumental in negotiating a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with America that was signed on June 17th. The MOU promised Iran an end to nearly five decades of American opposition, protection for its regional proxies, sanctions relief, the repatriation of frozen oil revenues and $300bn to kick-start post-war reconstruction, in return for Iran eschewing its pursuit of a nuclear bomb and ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Fighting resumed within days of the document’s signing. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping. On August 17th the deadline the MOU set for a more permanent peace deal expired; a day later Iran appeared to lob missiles at the United Arab Emirates, an American ally in the Gulf, which responded with a trade embargo. Some observers worry that the hardliners’ sense of having parried American and Israeli attacks has revived their conviction in the viability of force. “They’re squandering the victory [with the MoU],” fumes an academic in Tehran. Domestically, too, the new regime looks harsh. The morality police are back in force in Tehran, raiding and closing cafés perceived as too lax on enforcing the veil. Public executions of anti-regime protesters have resumed. This month a photographer who captured Iran’s social malaise was gunned down with his mother and sister near a city in the north-west. Yet other insiders and observers see more calculated realpolitik. The generals approved Mr Ghalibaf’s MoU. But without pressure, they are said to have reasoned, it stood no chance of being implemented. Despite the MOU, America set up its own blockade over the strait and negotiated the disarmament of Hizbullah, an important proxy, in concert with Israel. Iran could not even secure the transfer of frozen revenues that had been part of the deal. The new regime could be keen on an agreement that delivers finance. After the Iran-Iraq war, Mr Rezaei spearheaded Iran’s reconstruction. As a presidential candidate, he called for foreign investment and a nuclear deal. “They’re saying isolation will kill us,” says another Iranian academic with ties to the new leaders. Nor, say some, are they fazed by diminishing Islamic norms. The crackdown on cafés may be merely a sop to their base. Some liken them to Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince who is pursuing social liberalisation in place of political reform. Yet all observers agree that there is a new style of leadership. For almost four decades Mr Khamenei balanced the competing interests of his realm, alternating reformists and hardliners. The new commanders, by contrast, favour action. Iranians and the world may yet rue the day Mr Khamenei left the scene.
Hezbollah’s return to Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, Lebanon’s first Pilot Zone, highlights the Lebanese Army’s reluctance to confront Hezbollah on the ground. Local sources say Hezbollah personnel remain in the town, while LAF troops have yet to take meaningful action to enforce disarmament, @ClaudiaGroeling and @AtrachRalph write.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
On Tuesday, the U.S. military helped ship over 15 million barrels of oil and products out of the Strait of Hormuz — combined with pipelines, the total leaving the region is closer to 20 million barrels. 7-day average of oil leaving the Strait is over 8 million barrels a day. Make no mistake, thanks to the U.S. Navy, oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Noteworthy: As the U.S. economic pressure campaign is set to kick into high gear, #Iran's regime's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says today in #Iraq, “No matter how much military power we have, if people are hungry and we don't have financial circulation, economic growth and domestic production, we will not endure." Reuters Iran has granted permission for a number of Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following repeated requests from Baghdad through various channels, Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported on Saturday.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
The Israeli Air Force bombed a Hamas weapon production site in the central Gaza Strip and killed a commander in the terror group in separate strikes today, the military announces. A strike in the Maghazi camp killed Ismail Abu Ful, who the military says was the commander of an arms production site. The IDF says "the terrorist took an active part in manufacturing explosive devices and anti-tank rockets" for Hamas, and he was "eliminated to remove the threat." In a separate strike in the nearby town of az-Zawayda, the IAF struck a weapons manufacturing site "near an aid distribution point operated by an international organization," according to the IDF. Shrapnel from that strike, which came after a warning by the IDF for residents of the area, reportedly killed a four-year-old boy and injured six others. "This is another example of Hamas’s systematic use of and embedding within civilian infrastructure, including aid distribution centers, to advance and execute terror attacks against IDF troops operating in the Yellow Line area and against Israeli civilians," the military says. The IDF says the arms production site shows that Hamas "systematically violates the ceasefire agreement while attempting to rehabilitate its military capabilities and strengthen its force buildup."
BREAKING: IRAN’S PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY: “In light of violations by certain vessels of the Iranian arrangements for transiting the Strait of Hormuz, these vessels will face restrictions in their future transits through Strait of Hormuz, such as fines, seizure, or confiscation. Vessels that, from this date onward, engage in ship-to-ship transfers, transshipment, etc., with vessels on this list will themselves be added to this list. Additionally, vessels wishing to have their names removed from this list must submit their request along with the relevant explanation”
Mohammad Marandi, close to Iran's negotiating team: "In the coming days, it is very likely that the military conflict will be renewed." He warned that any regime cooperating with Trump and Bessent to "starve Iranian civilians" will be "severely punished," adding the global economy is "on the verge of collapse."
Iran will treat any country’s participation in or support for the US economic campaign against Tehran as an act of war and could halt all oil exports from the Persian Gulf, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei said on Sunday. “If the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf,” Rezaei said on X. “Iran will regard any country’s participation in or support for America’s economic war against the Iranian people as an act of war,” he added.
Yemeni government forces appear to be stepping up indirect military activity against the Houthis across several fronts, with new drone footage showing strikes on Houthi logistics alongside increased readiness at frontline positions. Maj. Gen. Hamdi Shukri, commander of Yemen’s Fourth Military Region Command (MRC), inspected frontline positions in Al-Dhale alongside Al-Dhale’ Governor and front commander Maj. Gen. Ahmed Qa’id al-Quba. The inspection covered forward positions and contact lines in Al-Fakher, Hajar, Murays and Bab Ghalaq. Commanders reviewed troop readiness, coordination and security conditions, with Shukri calling for forces to maintain a high level of readiness and prepare for potential threats. The visit comes amid an apparent uptick in operations on other fronts. In Marib, government forces released drone footage showing a strike on a Houthi supply vehicle in Al-Kassara. Separately, the military’s Al-Nasr drone team released footage showing another Houthi supply vehicle being targeted in Al-Ariqat. Meanwhile, the Houthis have also issued new military statements claiming they shotdown a @modgovksa Scan Eagle ISR drone. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Looks like US is doing two things today: -issuing a bunch of new sanctions in the usual areas (MODAFL procurement, oil trade, cyber, etc.) after several months of relatively few major actions. -threatening big, new secondary sanctions on countries that have ties to Iran, including in some new sectors. Bessent explicitly called it a "warning shot." US is trying to ratchet up pressure, without triggering significant Iranian action or angering Iran's trading partners (most notably China).
Bessent: "Nations that facilitate any interactions with the regime should quickly heed our message. Those who stand with the United States will reap the rewards of our partnership; those who tether themselves to the Iranian regime should expect to share in the isolation of a withering regime."
Iran's Economy Minister, per Fars News: "The enemy wants to launch an offensive against us economically, and we must launch one too. We have plans for an economic offensive against the enemy. Today, anyone who buys even a single cent of American bonds is complicit in the blood of our martyred children."
Iranian Economy Minister Madanizadeh on US sanctions: We have been waiting for these days for a long time, and we knew what plans they had. The government has a two-year plan and was completely ready for these events to happen. The unipolar world is over, and they will experience this once again. They will see that they will not succeed at all.
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The State Department is issuing a reward of up to $10 million for information on key Iranian IRGC figures. They include: - Ahmad Vahidi, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC. - Ali Abdollahi, Chief of Iran's Central Military Command. - Sa’id Aghajani, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander. - Hamidreza Lashgarian, Chief of IRGC's Cyber-Electronic Command. - Majid Khademi, IRGC Intelligence Chief.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "Iran's leadership is admitting what the world can now see: the pressure is working. President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged Iran's economic shortages, saying, 'The war must come to an end at some point.' Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker, was even more direct: 'No matter how much military power we have, if people are hungry and we don't have financial circulation, economic growth and domestic production, we will not endure.' Under President Trump, Treasury will continue to sever every economic lifeline sustaining this regime until Tehran stands alone." |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
IRAN FUEL CRISIS: The following stations are currently out of service in Tehran: Pasdaran, Mirdamad, Shariati Park, Damavand, Mirza ye Shirazi and Dolat. Some stations are reportedly limiting purchases to 20 liters per vehicle. With estimates that restoring oil and gas output to prewar levels could take up to 2 years, the regime faces a difficult choice: raise fuel prices and risk unrest, or maintain current prices as shortages deepen.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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https://legalinsurrection.com/2026/08/report-iran-tried-to-assassinate-netanyahus-son-yair-in-miami/ A day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that Iran tried to kill one of his sons, Newsmax has confirmed that his eldest son, Yair, was targeted in Miami, Florida. A team of Iranian assassins was “in the Miami area and had conducted surveillance of Yair’s residence and movements,” the news website reported Tuesday, quoting an official. According to Newsmax, the plot was uncovered by Israeli intelligence last December. Yair was safely evacuated and returned to Israel. Media speculation began on Monday after Prime Minister Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14 that “Iran tried to kill, to murder one of my sons.” Netanyahu did not elaborate further. He has two sons, Yair and Avner, aged 35 and 31, respectively. |
Iran and Oman have reached agreements on each country’s share of Strait of Hormuz waters and revenues, IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi said, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported Wednesday. “We entered negotiations with Oman about a month ago and have reached results acceptable to both sides,” Mohebi said. He added that the talks had produced agreements on “each country’s share of the strait’s waters and Iran and Oman’s share of its revenues.” Mohebi said the United States was obstructing the process and delaying progress. “If the United States stops obstructing and returns to the memorandum, we can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the understanding reached,” he said. He added that the strait would not reopen if Washington did not accept Iran’s conditions. On Tuesday, Iran and Oman announced an interim framework for a temporary shipping corridor through the strait and joint mine-clearing, while talks on a permanent arrangement were set to continue.
Trump on Mojtaba Khamenei: "I don't think Mojtaba Khamenei is dead. He was very seriously wounded, left side of his body, the arm, the leg, the whole thing was seriously wounded. But I don't think he is dead. If he is dead, they are putting on a pretty good show because they are talking about going back to talk to him all the time to get his final blessings." WSJ: Labor Protests and Panic Buying Signal Growing Pressure in Iran Summary Iranians rushed to buy fuel and food as the Trump administration’s threat to tighten sanctions sparked fears of deeper shortages. The U.S. hopes to leverage mounting economic pressure to push Iran’s leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. Iran’s currency fell to a record low of more than two million to the dollar, and many consumers are taking on new debt to cover basic living costs. Iranians rushed to buy fuel and food this week, signaling mounting economic pressure as the Trump administration’s threat to tighten sanctions sparked fears of deeper shortages and pain. Small demonstrations by labor unions—which had all but disappeared during the war—are popping up across the country. Oil workers, pensioners and teachers have gathered to complain about the declining currency and rising cost of living. Those same issues triggered protests that rocked the regime around the new year, leading to a brutal crackdown that killed thousands. While the government tolerates a measure of protest around economic issues as a safety valve for anger, some of the gatherings have hit political notes despite the risks. On Monday, offshore oil and gas workers protested in the energy hub of Asaluyeh, saying workers who keep production running shouldn’t be facing a livelihood crisis or struggling to pay rent, the semiofficial news agency ILNA said. The previous day, about 100 laid-off workers had been demonstrating against their dismissal at the Shadegan steel complex in western Iran. The U.S. is hoping to leverage such sentiments to put pressure on Iran’s leaders to cut a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war on more favorable terms. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that countries and companies that do business with Tehran will face the wrath of the administration. The threats came as war damage, a U.S. Navy blockade and tightened sanctions are already pressuring Iran’s spiraling economy. Many analysts say the tactics will pummel Iran’s population but aren’t likely to move its leaders, who have weathered tough sanctions for years and feel they are fighting an existential war. They are implementing rationing and diverting resources from investments to hold out. The U.S. also faces economic pressure. Bessent said he was avoiding acting immediately because he didn’t want to shake the global economy. Conditions are clearly deteriorating in Iran. Long queues formed outside fuel stations in the capital and other cities. Some outlets ran out of motor fuel, residents and officials said. Drivers have rushed to fill their tanks ahead of a planned reduction in quotas for subsidized fuel. Iranians have access to some of the world’s cheapest gasoline, in some cases paying less than a penny a quart. But the government is planning to ration supplies after refineries were struck during the war and amid concerns fuel imports may be cut by new sanctions. Iran’s fuel production can’t cover its domestic needs, making it vulnerable to the new U.S. sanctions push, said Hamid Hosseini, spokesman for Iran’s oil-exporting union. Supplies come from Belarus, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, he said. This week, some supermarkets in Tehran temporarily ran out of cooking oil and rice as shoppers scooped them for hoarding, residents said. The government insists it has enough basic commodities to last for months. But the U.S. decision to tighten restrictions on Iran’s international trade is already having a psychological impact. The country brings in a lot of rice from India through the United Arab Emirates, which last week said it was severing trade ties with Iran. “There was hysteria and, in some neighborhoods, customers rushed to supermarkets,” a translator in Tehran said. “The risk of shortage tied to U.S. sanctions threats has triggered panic.” Supplies were more available online and in more upscale markets. The country’s fast-declining currency is putting pressure on consumers to use it before it weakens further. On Monday, Iran’s currency fell to a record low of more than two million to the dollar, down 7% on the week and buying half as many dollars as a year ago. Many consumers are now taking on new debt to cover basic living costs. Meat is often bought on credit, repaid in installments with interest, residents said. “This phenomenon is not a new payment method; it is a sign of a major change: poverty,” wrote Etemad, a reformist newspaper. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the country needs to focus on ending the war and shoring up its crippled economy. Hard-line leaders, however, are setting a high bar for a deal, seeking to raise the cost of the war for the U.S. Iranian officials worry a deepening economic crisis could lead to a return of the unrest. In 2019, cuts to fuel and food subsidies after President Trump tightened sanctions in his first term triggered months of deadly mass protests. In December, bazaar merchants protesting a sharp drop in the currency sparked waves of demonstrations with calls to topple the regime. Despite government warnings that protesters could be killed, localized industrial actions continue to take place. Demonstrators in strategic industries like telecommunications and petrochemicals have carried out sit-ins over months of unpaid wages. Earlier in August, 32 petrochemical workers in Bandar-e Mahshahr, a city on the Persian Gulf coast, publicly protested their dismissals, according to ILNA. Members of the Coordination Council of Iranian Teachers’ Trade Associations—a teachers union—are tying Iran’s deteriorating economic conditions to its leaders’ uncompromising posture. A retired teacher wrote on the union’s social-media channel that the government had promised during the war it would send oil prices to $200 a barrel and punish Iran’s attackers. Instead, he said, the country is being battered by its own collapsing currency. “Three days have passed since we received our August salaries,” he wrote. “There’s barely anything left.”
Six months into the US-Iran war, Qatar is among the conflict's biggest economic casualties, with its liquefied natural gas exports slashed by 96%, data shows. Qatar has lost $24 billion in gas sales, which is about five months’ worth of income for the country based on 2025 data, Reuters calculations show.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Two Hamas commanders were killed in Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip today, the military announces. One strike in Gaza City's Shati camp killed Bilal Ibrahim Saleh Raqi‘i, identified by the IDF as a commander in Hamas's anti-tank unit. A second strike in Khan Younis killed Azzam Rifaat Abd Abadala, who the military says served in Hamas's Khan Younis Brigade. The IDF justifies the strikes amid the ceasefire by saying that both terror operatives had recently advanced attacks on troops and Israeli civilians, as well as acted to restore Hamas capabilities, "while systematically violating the ceasefire." The strikes were "carried out to remove the threat," the army adds. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has released a new video update from Adm. Brad Cooper, announcing that U.S. forces have cleared an international shipping channel of mines and declared the Strait of Hormuz open. According to Cooper, U.S. forces have assisted more than 1,500 vessels through the Strait over the past several months, carrying more than 750 million barrels of oil. The announcement comes as commercial traffic through the Strait remains well below prewar levels and amid continued concerns over remaining Iranian mines and threats to shipping. U.S. allies have privately assessed that not all mines may have been cleared, while the International Maritime Organization continues to advise vessels to exercise maximum caution. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Recent satellite imagery suggests that the Department of War has conducted a covert dredging operation to open up a never-before-used shipping corridor through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. The corridor in question is an approximately 1,600-foot-wide waterway with a natural depth of about 93 feet, meaning that only a small amount of dredging would have been necessary to make it safe for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers). Worth noting, ships navigating this corridor remain completely outside the Iranian regime’s line of sight due to the Omani island of Jazirat Musandam and the curvature of the Earth.
US CENTCOM is saying that they escorted 750 million barrels of crude oil out over the past several months. Maths again: Operation Project Freedom began 116 days ago on 2026-05-04, which is nearly 6.5 million barrels per day. That number most likely includes the brief MoU period, which saw twice as much traffic as now.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Iranian leaders are acknowledging the economic toll of war with the U.S., with the supreme leader urging the government to address the hardship and the president saying foreign trade has shrunk by a third due to the American sanctions and blockade. Yet Tehran signalled no retreat on Saturday, vowing to withstand U.S. pressure, pursue diplomacy and maintain what it said was control over the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway giving Iran leverage through its ability to disrupt global energy markets. The government said in a statement on state media that addressing economic pressures caused by sanctions and war was a central focus, including curbing inflation, managing markets, creating jobs, directing investment towards domestic production and gradually reducing dependence on the dollar. Six months after the U.S. and Israel launched the war, negotiations are at an impasse and President Donald Trump's administration has stepped up efforts to punish Iran financially with what it has billed as an "economic D-Day". SANCTIONS COMPOUND TOLL ON IRAN'S ECONOMY Washington has warned countries to cut business ties with Iran or face secondary sanctions, though the Treasury Department stopped short of imposing penalties against major Iranian trade partners such as China and India, which could have repercussions for the U.S. and global economies. The Treasury imposed sanctions on Egypt's Banque Misr for doing business with Tehran, proposing a rule that would cut off the bank's branches in the United Arab Emirates from dollar transactions. Egypt's central bank said it and the foreign ministry were in contact with U.S. officials concerning the matter, adding the measure was limited to Banque Misr UAE’s U.S. dollar transactions with correspondent banks only. Banque Misr said later in a statement it was reviewing the U.S. Treasury notice, adding that its branch in the UAE continued to provide banking services to its customers in line with applicable rules and procedures. The U.S. also issued sanctions targeting an entity based in Hong Kong and a person linked to Iran's Bank Melli, according to a notice on the Treasury website. The sanctions drive compounds the toll of the war on Iran's economy, where annual inflation hit 66% last month. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei — who has not been seen publicly since he was injured in the initial February 28 attack that killed his father and former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — called on the government to tackle the economic hardship. "There is the need to seriously address the chain of economic and livelihood challenges, such as inflation, unemployment, management of prices and the market for goods and services," according to a written statement attributed to Khamenei. President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media that Iranian exports and imports had slumped nearly 35% because of U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade of Iranian ports. But he said Iran was able to sell about 90 million barrels of oil during the short-lived memorandum of understanding that the U.S. and Iran signed in June, when Washington permitted Iranian oil sales. IRAN VOWS TO PURSUE DIPLOMACY AND DEFENCE With the U.S. focused on its economic pressure campaign, others have sought to revive diplomatic efforts to end the war. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met with Iranian leaders in Tehran on Thursday. He said he had stressed during the meeting the importance of returning to the pre-war status of open shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on Friday described the talks with Al Thani as "creative". In Saturday's statement, Iran said diplomacy and defence were "two complementary, coordinated and inseparable wings" for protecting the country's national interests, security and territorial integrity. It said it would pursue both tracks in a balanced manner. Qatar, a U.S. ally and Gulf neighbour to Iran, and Pakistan helped broker the June memorandum of understanding that led to a brief ceasefire before disagreements over the vital strait caused it to unravel. Before the war, the waterway carried 20% of the world's oil and LNG. U.S. military commanders say American forces have cleared sea mines from the strait that had been laid months ago by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trump has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz is open, but the Revolutionary Guards' navy said in a statement that such claims "are an obvious lie", reiterating that the waterway remained closed to ships without Iranian permission. Only seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Thursday, down from 17 a day earlier and below the 10-day average of 15, preliminary shipping data showed on Friday. Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Daniel Trotta; Editing by Stephen Coates and William Mallard
STRUCK: A Hamas commander in the Deir al-Balah area who posed an immediate threat and planned to execute terror attacks aganist Israeli civilians and IDF troops. The terrorist who was struck was hiding within the compound of the Shuhada Al-Aqsa Hospital. This is another example of Hamas’ cynical use of humanitarian infrastructure. On August 27, 2026, a warning was conveyed to medical authorities in Gaza regarding the cessation of the use of medical facilities for terrorist purposes. It was made clear that the IDF will act against any threat should such activity continue. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Their calculations are lower than what was published earlier.
Over the past seven full days, crude oil exports departing the US Navy blockade line averaged 6.7 million barrels per day. This figure reflects our extensive research, which combines AIS data with hundreds of daily satellite images, including the visually identified AIS-offline tankers; some of which aren't even pinging in the Middle East. It also includes vessels that reactivate their AIS days after departing the blockade line.
Israel's killing of terrorists who participated in the October 7, 2023 onslaught continues, with another member of Hamas's elite Nukhba Force targeted yesterday. The IDF announces that a strike on Saturday in northern Gaza's Jabalia killed And al-Fatah Abu al-Eish, a Nukhba Force commander who invaded Israel on October 7. The same strike also killed Raed Adel Mohammed Alyan, a Hamas operative, according to the military. The IDF justifies the strike amid the ceasefire by saying that both operatives had been advancing attacks on troops and civilians, as well as trying to restore Hamas capabilities, "all in violation of the ceasefire agreement." The strike was carried out to "remove the threat," the military adds.
Two more members of Hamas's elite Nukhba Force were killed in an Israeli strike in the southern Gaza Strip yesterday, the IDF announces. The military says the strike in Khan Younis killed Yasser Abu al-Khair and Mohammed al-Din, both Nukhba operatives who had been advancing attacks on troops and Israeli civilians. The pair had also been trying to restore Hamas capabilities, "all in violation of the ceasefire agreement," the military says.
The IDF announces that a Hamas operative was killed in an Israeli strike in central Gaza a short while ago. The strike in Deir al-Balah killed Hassam Osama Hussein Nasir, who the military says was advancing attacks on troops and Israeli civilians. The military says it took steps to minimize harm to civilians in the strike, which was carried out because the Hamas operative "posed an immediate threat." |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
According to both Al Jazeera and Axios, citing U.S. officials, the U.S. struck two Iranian rocket launch sites that were in the preparatory stages of launching sea mine laden rockets into the Strait of Hormuz. This development comes as both Iran and Oman claim to have reached a consensus on joint administration of the strait despite the IRGC claiming that they have the right to sole administration of the strategic maritime choke point.
In response to the U.S. strike tonight on two Iranian rocket launch positions on Larak Island, the IRGC has vowed to respond, with what will likely be strikes on U.S. bases and infrastructure across the region and increased targeting of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Also in Axios’ report on a potential plan to resume strikes against Iran to mitigate the threat to shipping was additional new information. Specifically, that U.S. military decision-makers were given reason to believe that Iran is making good on efforts to reconstitute and replace their air defense positions when an F-35 providing air cover for commercial traffic was fired upon unsuccessfully by an Iranian air defense system.
Iranian reports claim the Saudi oil tanker "Cedar" was stopped while passing through the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel has a capacity of 2 million barrels and had its automatic identification system active during transit. UKMTO reported receiving word of a security incident involving an oil tanker about an hour earlier. UKMTO alert--usually ships stopped in the Indian Ocean are stopped by the US Navy Attached File
NEW: Kan: Israeli officials are increasingly dissatisfied with the Lebanese army’s handling of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. A senior U.S. official says Lebanese army officers have told Washington they currently oppose an Israeli withdrawal, fearing Hezbollah would move back into areas vacated by Israeli forces. |
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
For the first time on record, Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as a U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off one of Tehran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Unlike previous sanctions campaigns, when Iranian crude continued reaching buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves. Since the U.S. reinstated its blockade on Iran on July 14 as part of their six-month conflict, no Iranian crude cargoes have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz to China, according to Kpler, Vortexa and TankerTrackers.com. As a result, Iran can only sell crude to China from floating storage in Asia, which it cannot replenish as crude accumulates aboard tankers inside the strait. "Even at the height of maximum-pressure sanctions in 2019-20, some Iranian crude cleared Hormuz every single month; at no point did outbound flows fall to near-zero for a sustained stretch as they have since mid-July," Iran loaded about 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in August, according to Vortexa and Kpler estimates, down from roughly 740,000 bpd in July and about 2 million bpd in March. The collapse in exports is draining one of Iran's main sources of foreign-currency income and could force Tehran to finance spending by printing money, risking even higher inflation, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi said. The International Monetary Fund estimates Iran's inflation rate at nearly 70% this year, the world's third-highest after Venezuela and Sudan. Last week, Washington sought to increase the pressure by threatening countries that continue trading with Tehran, while stopping short of immediately imposing penalties. THE BLOCKADE AND BEYOND Iran currently has 29 tankers inside the strait carrying 36.11 million barrels of crude, TankerTrackers.com co-founder Samir Madani said. The U.S. blockade does not extend along Iran's entire coastline. It sits farther south, between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, where U.S. Navy vessels vet ships departing from and approaching Iranian ports. Beyond the blockade zone, dozens of Iran-linked shadow-fleet tankers remain active, with 51 vessels operating in the Gulf of Oman and another 81 making deliveries in Asia or waiting off Malaysia, according to David Tannenbaum of Blackstone Compliance Services. Reuters could not independently verify those figures. IRANIAN CRUDE STILL FOR SALE, BUT FOR HOW LONG? Iranian crude remains openly available, with cargoes for September and October delivery to China being offered, traders said. They said available volumes are lower than for July and August because floating storage outside the Gulf is shrinking as no fresh supply arrives. Iranian crude in floating storage west of the blockade line rose to 41.7 million barrels by August 26 from 35.5 million at the end of July, while total Iranian crude afloat fell to 107 million barrels from 135 million, according to Vortexa data. "China can grab whatever's floating around in their neck of the woods, but that's about it for now, really," TankerTrackers co-founder Samir Madani said. Once sold, empty tankers cannot return to Iranian ports because of the blockade, leaving vessels idle offshore. Vortexa's Jungman said 27 sanctioned tankers linked to Iran's oil trade are currently waiting off Sri Lanka in ballast, unable to return to Iran. Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Enes Tunagur and Robert Harvey. Additional reporting by Siyi Liu and Chen Aizhu in Singapore. Editing by Mark Potter
Russia has secretly helped Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles able to threaten US aircraft carriers and warships in the Middle East, an FT investigation found. The multiyear programme, codenamed C430L, began in 2023 and continued into the US-Israeli war. Its core aim: helping Iran build a ramjet propulsion system that sustains flight at several times the speed of sound.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) September 1, 2026 U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets Sept. 1. U.S. forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets including air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites. The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members. More than 50,000 U.S. service members are currently operating across the Middle East and remain vigilant, lethal, and prepared to continue executing operations directed by the Commander in Chief.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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“A U.S. official said the move was part of a new "tanker for tanker" policy approved by President Trump to further deter Iranian attacks on tankers that move through the strait.” “A U.S. official told Axios on Tuesday that the new strikes degraded Iran's attack capabilities in the strait and "bought at least a month" of lowered threat levels for commercial ships.” |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Some are frustrated the U.S. isn’t striking deeper into Iran. But look at the geography: these strikes are very important in helping secure U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. official tells Axios the overnight strikes reduced the threat to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for “at least a month.” Attached File Attached File
Three liquefied natural gas cargoes loaded in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have been transferred between ships outside the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks for delivery to India and Japan, according to ship-tracking firms. Several commercial vessels have faced attacks amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route — since the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran broke out on February 28. The Reuters Power Up newsletter by columnist Ron Bousso provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. Most LNG tankers that have managed to transit the strait have delivered the cargoes directly to end-buyers. Unlike crude oil, ship-to-ship (STS) LNG transfers are unusual. The LNG carrier GasLog Shanghai, which was involved in an incident while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, completed an STS transfer with GasLog Savannah in late August off the coast of Oman, according to Vortexa and Kpler. An incident had occurred on the GasLog Shanghai LNG vessel on July 31 while exiting the Strait of Hormuz with cargo loaded at Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal. Both GasLog Shanghai and GasLog Savannah are controlled by Greek shipping company GasLog. QatarEnergy and GasLog did not respond to requests for comment. Iran has largely shut the Strait of Hormuz during the six-month conflict, disrupting energy supplies, driving up prices and fuelling wider inflation concerns. LNG exports from the region have fallen since the conflict's start, helping to push Asian spot LNG prices to a five-month high of $23.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), more than double the pre-conflict levels. Additionally, the QatarEnergy-controlled Al Rekayyat tanker, which was hit by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz in early July, conducted an STS transfer in mid-August on the east coast of the United Arab Emirates, Vortexa and Kpler data showed. The Al Rekayyat conducted the ship-to-ship transfer with another Qatari LNG tanker, Tembek. The cargo, originally loaded at Ras Laffan, was subsequently delivered by Tembek to India's Dahej terminal on August 31, Kpler data showed. A third tanker — ADNOC-controlled Mraweh — completed an STS transfer with LNG Enugu off the coast of Oman, outside the Hormuz strait, in mid-August, according to Vortexa and Kpler. The Mraweh had loaded an LNG cargo from Das Island in early August before conducting the STS transfer with LNG Enugu. The LNG Enugu is currently en route to Futtsu, Japan, showed Kpler data. ADNOC declined to comment. Shipping firm BW Group and Japanese trading house Marubeni, which both own LNG Enugu through a joint venture, did not respond to requests for comment. Reporting by Emily Chow; Editing by Florence Tan and Muralikumar Anantharaman
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
| https://legalinsurrection.com/2026/09/doj-confiscates-more-than-560000-in-crypto-donations-destined-for-hamas/ |
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Marco Rubio on Iran: "Their economy is a disaster. It was a disaster before all of this. Every penny they get, they don't spend it on the Iranian people. They don't spend that money on their country. They use that money to fund Hezbollah and Hamas and terrorist organizations and militias in Iraq to threaten us and threaten the world. If they spent a fraction, just half the money they're spending on these militias, on their own people, the Iranian people would be better off."
A kilometer-long tunnel in the northern Gaza Strip was recently demolished by combat engineers, the military says. The tunnel was destroyed in recent weeks during operations of the Gaza Division's Northern Brigade in the area. The IDF says that since the October 2025 ceasefire, the brigade and combat engineers of the Yahalom unit have demolished over 26 kilometers of tunnels on the Israeli side of the Gaza ceasefire line. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
According to U.S. President Donald J. Trump, Iran is having trouble identifying and seeing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S. targeting of coastal and somewhat inland radar sites. If true, this might account for Iran’s use of small craft with literal searchlights to make visible contact with vessels, first reported a few days ago by @_MartinKelly_.
Fresh figures: Over the past (complete) 28 days, there have been six days where more than 10 million barrels of crude oil departed via the USN Blockade Line. As you can see, the average daily number is 7.54 Mbpd (down from 17.67 Mbpd back in Jan & Feb 2026). Of that amount, 5.04 Mbpd comes out via the SoH while another 2.49 Mbpd comes out of the oil terminals located along the GoO.
"One of the officials said a special message was sent to U.S. diplomatic posts in Abu Dhabi, Muscat, Hong Kong, Doha, London, Berlin and several Central Asian capitals. The missive instructed them to demand that their host governments shut down all branches of Iran's Melli and Saderat banks that are affiliated with the IRGC." |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
9:37 PM Eastern Wednesday
IRGC: “As part of the ongoing 31st phase of Operation ‘Thunder’, in retaliation for the blood of innocent people and the brave members of the armed forces, this morning, the Islamic Republic of Iran's Army struck the satellite communication systems, equipment depots, and fighter jet hangars of the American terrorist army at the Al-Jaber base in Kuwait with missiles and drones. Furthermore, as part of this devastating operation, the "deployment areas" and "radar systems of the American child-killing army at the Al-Minhad base in the UAE were targeted by missiles and drones.”
Reuters: Iran warned the US that it would respond with force if Israel attempts to attack the Ali Taar complex in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah militants are besieged. According to the report, at least 12 members of the Revolutionary Guard, including two senior officers, are also hiding within the complex on the ridge, alongside Lebanese Hezbollah militants.
Defense Minister Israel Katz warns that if Iran attacks Israel, the military will target all of the regime's infrastructure, "including energy infrastructure." "There are signs we are seeing that indicate that the heavy economic pressure Iran is under and the fear of an uprising and the fall of the regime could push them to desperate measures," Katz says at a Jewish New Year toast with Defense Ministry employees. "An Iranian attack on Israel will free us from all constraints, we will strike all infrastructure -- including energy infrastructure -- and return Iran to the Stone Age and darkness," he says. Katz adds that "Israel is well prepared, defensively and offensively, for every possibility -- and the IDF is ready to carry out the mission.”
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In a statement, the military says that in the past few weeks, troops of the 36th Division, after achieving "operational control of the ridge area above and below ground," cleared two tunnel routes of Hezbollah operatives, killing some of them while others fled. The IDF describes the facility as a "strategic infrastructure that was built over two decades," which it says was financed and planned by Iran. Inside the tunnels, the troops found "command centers, weapons rooms, generator rooms, living quarters, showers, and a kitchen," which the IDF says enabled Hezbollah operatives "to conduct fighting and remain there for extended periods." The IDF says that now that the underground site has been clear of Hezbollah operatives, it is working to demolish it. "Upon completion of the activity, the IDF will establish a renewed defensive posture in accordance with the situational assessment," the military says, indicating that it plans to withdraw from the area. The military says that Hezbollah operatives launched attacks from the underground site at the ridge. "Following the activity in the [tunnel] routes in recent weeks, the ability to carry out terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops from the routes has been neutralized," the statement adds.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
As U.S. forces continue to enforce the naval blockade, 54 tankers laden with Iranian oil and petrochemicals remain at anchorages along Iran’s coastline, including 14 loitering east of Kharg Island. Meanwhile, 15 Iran-flagged cargo ships and 7 Iran-flagged tankers are waiting in the Malaysian EOPL anchorage. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Washington has no indication at this stage that American military bases in Jordan had come under fire, Israel’s Channel 12 reported citing a senior US official, after Arab media reported the interception of Iranian missiles over Jordan. “At this stage, we are not aware of any firing at American bases in Jordan,” the official was quoted as saying.
The IDF says it is carrying out strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon currently after the terror group launched an explosive drone at troops this evening. The drone that Hezbollah launched at Israeli forces was shot down by troops of the Commando Brigade, the military says, adding that no soldiers were injured. "This constitutes a blatant violation [[of the ceasefire] by the Hezbollah terror organization," the IDF says in a statement. In response, the military says it is carrying out a wave of strikes in southern Lebanon. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
We’ve now tagged 17 crude oil and gas (LNG & LPG) ship-to-ship transfers which took place yesterday (2026-09-04) in the Gulf of Oman. At least 24 million barrels were being exchanged. We also identified many more oil-laden tankers waiting for a dance partner in those waters. It appears that the dance floor itself is the limitation. It's getting quite crowded and port services are kept busy around the clock to ensure smooth and safe transfers. In addition, we spotted at least 7.25 million barrels, along with two more LNG tankers, assembling to transit the SoH into the GoO under the protection of US CENTCOM. Busy day.
The IDF says its airstrikes last night in southern Lebanon, in response to a Hezbollah drone attack, targeted members of the terror group and its infrastructure. Lebanese health authorities reported three dead in Israeli strikes near Nabatieh and Rmadiyeh. Among the targets were weapon depots belonging to Hezbollah that the IDF says were intended to be used in attacks on Israel. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) September 5, 2026 U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces struck three Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 5, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles toward two U.S. Navy warships patrolling regional waters. A U.S. aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyer successfully evaded multiple unprovoked Iranian attacks. No American personnel were harmed. Following Iran’s failed attacks, CENTCOM permanently disabled the IRGC crude oil carriers M/T Downy off the coast of Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask. American forces also completely destroyed the unladen crude oil carrier M/T Kylo (also known as the “Noxen”) in the Gulf of Oman, striking the vessel in multiple critical locations to render it inoperable after the crew was directed to abandon ship. The three Iranian crude oil tankers are part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC and its regional proxies. Iran has no means by which to defend them. “Let the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost —taking out three of yours,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander. “We will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet.” |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Video obtained by Iran International, filmed aboard a nearby vessel, captures the US military's radio warnings to the Iranian oil tanker STARK 1 before it was struck near Kharg Island. Three warnings are audible over the VHF channel. In the first, a US military aircraft tells the tanker: "Motor Tanker STARK 1, this is the United States military aircraft. I am preparing to fire at your stern. You have 3 minutes to clear the crew from the stern of your ship. Over." The second cuts that to one minute. The third is final: "This was your final warning... get into your lifeboats and abandon the ship immediately." Between the warnings, crew members can be heard talking in Persian and Urdu. One asks whether the captain and his deputy are at their posts. He is told the captain is still asleep. Iranian media reported on Saturday morning that a tanker had been hit by US forces six miles off Kharg Island, without naming the vessel. STARK 1 was carrying Iranian oil and was first sanctioned by Washington in 2018.
Video shows @CENTCOM strikes against three tankers 1️⃣22 year old, 296,977 ton, Iran-flagged VLCC Downy (IMO 9218480) was struck in the stern with the intent of diabling its steering. 2️⃣26 year old, 159,681 ton, Iran-flagged Suezmax tanker Stark I (IMO 9171450) suffered a similar hit. * It appears that bith Downy and Stark I were loaded based on their draft, hence the disabling hits. 3️⃣MT Kylo (IMO 9189146) is a Comoros-flagged, 25 year old, 160,573 ton Suezmax tanker. The tanker was anchored to the east of the Strait of Hormuz admid other ships waiting to load. She was stuck by multiple pieces of ordance. This attack was different in that: ▶️Comoros vice Iran flagged ▶️The ship was abandoned, giving the indication that a warning had been sent to the crew - lifeboat was missing and lines down off the stern. ▶️The ship was in ballast and many of the explosions on deck are due to the manhole covers lifting off the main deck due to the overpressurization of the cargo hold and the igniting of the vapors with the failure of the inert gas system (if it was even operating). The ships hull was targeted, in particular the engine room and cargo tanks. These attacks, particulalry the one against KYLO demonstrate the U.S. responding to strikes against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians have to be concerned about their other tankers along their coast, along with 20 anchored near Sri Lanka. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said the era of “proportionate responses” was over and warned that any attack on Iran’s interests or security would receive a “faster, heavier and more painful” response. He described what Iran says were recent strikes on US bases as “only the beginning.”
To fully understand the extent to which the U.S. military now controls the airspace over southern Iran, you need to watch this footage recorded on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf. A U.S. Air Force KC-135R Stratotanker can be seen conducting aerial refueling of two American fighter jets at medium altitude directly over the island. The sight of a large USAF aerial-refueling tanker operating with fighter aircraft over Iranian territory illustrates the extraordinary degree of freedom of operation currently enjoyed by U.S. military aviation over southern Iran.
Two luxury London penthouses linked to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, bought for a combined £36 million, have been put up for sale, The Sunday Times reported. The apartments are at 3a Palace Green, an exclusive development overlooking Kensington Palace and close to the official London residence of the Prince and Princess of Wales. Both properties include staff accommodation and private roof terraces, according to the report. One is a five-bedroom duplex covering 3,944 square feet across the sixth and seventh floors. It was purchased for £19 million in 2016 but is now being offered for just under £12 million. The second penthouse occupies the seventh and eighth floors of the same building. It was bought for £16.75 million in 2014 and has also entered receivership.
The IDF says its airstrikes in southern Lebanon this morning, in response to a Hezbollah drone attack, targeted members of the terror group and its infrastructure. Among the targets were weapon depots and other buildings used by Hezbollah to advance attacks, as well as a command center based out of a former hospital, the military says. Lebanese media reported earlier that the disused Ghandour Hospital in Nabatieh al-Fawqa was demolished in a strike. The IDF says that recently, Hezbollah operatives involved in "artillery and surveillance" had been operating from the command center at the hospital compound. All of the strikes were carried out to "remove threats," the military says, and came in response to this morning's drone attack on troops operating in the Ali Taher Ridge area.
A rocket was found by Israeli forces during a raid against a Hamas cell in the West Bank village of Aqqaba overnight, the police and military say, Officers of the police's elite Yamam unit and IDF troops had raided Aqqaba following intelligence provided by the Shin Bet on a Hamas network in the area. During the raid, the police and military say, the Yamam officers and IDF soldiers apprehended 10 Hamas operatives. At one location, the Yamam officers located a rocket without a launcher, the statement says. One of the detained Hamas operatives also led the forces to several more weapons, including an assault rifle and a large amount of explosive material, the IDF and police say. The suspects were taken for Shin Bet questioning, and the weapons, including the rocket, were destroyed at the scene by police sappers, the statement adds. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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The Economist: Iran’s proxies are going their own way. After three years of war, the axis of resistance is no longer an axis For years Iranian officials spoke of an “axis of resistance”, allies from Beirut to Sana’a who would stand together against common foes Yet when Iran was attacked twice in the past 15 months, each made a different decision about whether to join the fray. The axis may not be dead—but the brand has outlived the business. The strategy of backing Arab militias dates to the 1980s, when Iran sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to train Hizbullah fighters in Lebanon. It saw such groups as a substitute for its weak conventional army: they would serve as forward defence, projecting power while keeping conflict away from Iran. The defence clearly failed. The Hamas-led massacre on October 7th 2023 started a cascade of wars that ended with Iran itself being attacked. Hizbullah and Hamas are badly weakened. Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has gone. The Iraqi government has ordered militias to disarm by October. Some regime foes hope that Iran will have to curtail its support, perhaps to facilitate a deal with America, and trigger the collapse of the axis. That is unlikely. The militias are wounded but alive, and the strategic rationale for supporting them is stronger than ever. Yet the axis may also struggle to rebuild itself as a consortium: the parent company in Tehran is bankrupt, and many of its subsidiaries are poorly run. A likelier outcome is that its constituent parts survive but diverge. Some will become Iranian wards, held tightly but used sparingly. A few will graduate from the axis. Others will emerge as strays: clients that might have somewhere else to go. Counter-intuitively, Iran will exercise the tightest control over groups that have suffered the greatest blows to their capabilities. Take Hizbullah, once Iran’s most feared proxy. Until 2023 it had an arsenal of more than 100,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel and a well-trained commando force that had honed its skills fighting to save Mr Assad’s regime. Hassan Nasrallah, its charismatic leader assassinated by Israel in 2024, saw himself as a peer rather than a proxy. He was a true believer steeped in Iran’s revolutionary ideology, but tried to preserve some autonomy. No longer. Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s successor, is an unloved middle-manager. Israeli strikes have killed many of the group’s experienced commanders. The Lebanese government insists that Hizbullah must hand over its diminished arsenal. With so many commanders dead, the IRGC sent its own men to Lebanon to exercise direct control over the group, leaving it little choice but to start another war with Israel in March. At the same time, its domestic popularity has collapsed. Iran will preserve Hizbullah less for what it can do than for what its loss would signal. At the other extreme are the Houthis, the most independent-minded of Iran’s allies. They started as a local insurgency in northern Yemen in the 1990s. It would be decades before Iran offered significant financial and military aid. When it came, it vastly improved their capabilities. Once derided as barefoot gunmen, Houthi fighters now wield anti-ship missiles to harass vessels in the Red Sea and air defences to shoot down American Reaper drones. Yet the Houthis continue to guard their autonomy. Their involvement in the post-October 7th wars has waxed and waned, based more on their own interests than Tehran’s. They are increasingly able to produce their own weapons and are forging their own alliances, for example with al-Shabab, the al-Qaeda affiliate that controls much of Somalia. Houthi delegations have visited Russia and held talks with China. Iran and the Houthis will continue to find common interest: both loathe America, Israel and Saudi Arabia. But that is not the same as taking orders. In between are the strays. Many Shia militias in Iraq are a by-product of the American-led invasion in 2003, after which Iran poured weapons and money into the country to bleed its American foes. Two decades later their priorities have changed. Iran remains an ally, but their main patron is the Iraqi state, which has more than 200,000 militiamen on its payroll. Some militias did launch attacks on American bases earlier this year, but they worry that open conflict with the Iraqi government or its allies would jeopardise their position. The IRGC is said to have sent advisers to Iraq to establish small cells tasked with attacking Gulf states, a sign that the bigger militias were reluctant to do so. Hamas was always an awkward fit in the axis, a Sunni group in a largely Shia bloc. It fell out with Iran over the latter’s support for the Assad regime in Syria. Khalil al-Hayya, its newly appointed leader, is considered a loyal Iranian ally, but other officials would prefer a pivot towards Sunni powers, namely Turkey and the Gulf. In March Hamas urged Iran to halt its attacks on Gulf states. Iran will not abandon it—support for the Palestinians is central to the regime’s identity—but its support may be more rhetorical than material. Even if Iran wanted to rebuild all its allies, its resources are limited. The war has caused hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of damage. America is blockading its ports and tightening sanctions on its economy. The fall of Mr Assad’s regime also severed the land route to Lebanon. Iran will need to prioritise. In some ways, the fate of the axis may mirror that of Soviet client states in the 1980s, when Moscow could no longer afford to offer them generous support. This is an imperfect analogy, of course. Moscow’s allies had a rival superpower to turn to, while Tehran’s face a messier board: some have a range of possible partners; others, none at all. Still, the Middle East’s most ambitious conglomerate may be heading for a restructuring. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
The Financial Times reports that US divers, robotic boats, and underwater craft spent four months covertly clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz. - Divers operated from inflatable-hulled boats, supported by robotic surface craft and submersibles. Towed sonar arrays produced high-resolution images of seabed objects to help locate suspected mines. - After detection, a diver would typically approach the mine, attach an explosive charge and destroy it. Experts said remotely operated underwater vehicles could also place or deliver explosives. - FT identifies the Common Uncrewed Surface Vessel as an example of the detection platforms. Experts suggested SeaFox or Archerfish systems could have been used for neutralization, and that the USS Miguel Keith, an expeditionary mobile base, may have supported operations. Full article As the US exchanged tit-for-tat strikes with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz in recent months, it was also engaged in a much more covert operation within the waters of the narrow, strategically crucial channel. Mostly at night, it sent Navy Seal divers, robot boats and specialised underwater craft into the perilous strait for a four-month mine-clearance mission, said people familiar with the operation. The fraught process of explosive device disposal was carried out underwater and in darkness in an attempt to eliminate a crucial factor deterring ships from carrying vital cargoes through the strait since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February. Since the war began, Tehran has claimed it has laid mines in international and Omani waters in the strait. The International Maritime Organization in June said about 80 had been placed in vital shipping lanes. US President Donald Trump’s claim last week that “all mines” in the strait’s international waters had been removed or detonated — confirmed by the US military — surprised many onlookers. Trackers had reported that three Gulf-based US ships normally tasked with mine countermeasures had been outside the region, in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, since at least early June. Minesweeping an area of sea even in peacetime is a painstaking process that can take months. Specialised vessels must snake up and down the waterway, cutting mines from their moorings and shooting them when they start to float. But in this case, US Navy divers worked in small teams using inflatable-hulled craft. They located Iranian mines with the help of robot boats and submersibles — such as the US Navy’s Common Uncrewed Surface Vessel — operating towed sonar arrays. These devices, containing high-resolution, side-looking sonar sensors, can see objects such as mines on the ocean bottom at startlingly high resolution. That enables them to sweep large areas with minimal risk to crews. But that process is often followed by the riskiest element of the mission. “That is usually followed up by a navy diver who’s got to get in the water and approach the mine, and then put a charge on it and destroy it,” said Bill Hamblet, a retired US Navy captain who often operated in the Gulf. He said it was a “very small, lightweight kind of force”. The US may have staged some operations from the USS Miguel Keith, a floating “expeditionary mobile base” attached to the Gulf naval forces, Hamblet added. Robot submersibles can also be used to destroy mines with explosives, he said. These could include the UK’s SeaFox, or the newer US AN/ASQ-235 Archerfish, said Bryan Clark, a demining expert at the Hudson Institute. “It is an extremely time-consuming process,” said Nitya Labh, associate fellow at Chatham House. “They are doing, essentially, active bomb detonation underwater.” No US casualties have been reported specifically linked to the demining operation, which was inherently dangerous, according to experts: “Mine-clearing forces are vulnerable because the operation is slow and their boats or helicopters lack defences,” said Clark. Shipowners and security advisers said they were optimistic that the southern half of the strait, close to Oman’s coast — through which the US has been guiding ships — had genuinely been cleared, while doubting that the entire strait was mine-free. Only a trickle of commercial ships have been travelling through the strait since the war started. One risk is missile and drone attacks by Iran. But the threat of mines, even if they are not actually present, is in itself enough to scare off shipowners and force insurers to quote eye-wateringly expensive cover, up to 10 times the prewar cost. For a typical supertanker that could mean insurance costs of about $10mn. The power of that threat has led to an information war. Tehran has dismissed the US mine clearance claims, with deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi saying in late August that “no one except Iran knows the location of these mines”. On the same day that Trump declared the strait mine-free, the US Navy-directed Joint Maritime Information Center said there was a “continued risk of drifting or uncharted mines”. Oil prices fell about 5 per cent in the week following Trump’s announcement but have since more than recouped their losses as strikes resumed. The question is whether shipowners will feel ready to send vessels through. That would require confidence that they can keep their ships safe from missiles and drones as well as mines. The US said it would seek to prevent fresh mines from being laid. “Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed,” Trump posted on social media last week. Military analysts say the regime has thousands of Maham mines, akin to those used in the second world war. Some sit just below the surface and detonate when a ship hits lead horns on the mine itself, while others operate by detecting changes in electromagnetic fields as vessels pass overhead. Iranian media has claimed that at least two tankers struck mines in the past week. An Iranian military spokesperson on Thursday claimed Tehran had laid more mines close to Oman. “It’s hard to know what to believe,” said Ethan Connell, assistant director of Taiwan Security Monitor and an expert on mines. “Iran is certainly trying to re-mine. “It’s always possible the [US] navy missed some. But the bigger and more pertinent issue, certainly the most annoying and expensive one, is the threat of re-mining.” On August 30, the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to fire sea mines into the strait. Hamblet — the former US Navy captain, who is now editor-in-chief of the US Naval Institute’s journal Proceedings — said rocket-fired mines would be very small, weighing perhaps 50kg. That compares with the 500kg or 1,000kg mines deployed by ships and boats and would be unlikely to be effective in deep water. Despite the Iranian reports, no mine attacks have been reported or confirmed by maritime authorities during the conflict. Satellite imagery has not shown clear evidence to substantiate Iran’s claims, said analysts. The only confirmed mine sighting in the strait was by a Pakistani hydrographer in May. By contrast, in the Black Sea — which has been heavily mined by Russia and Ukraine — there have been several instances of ships being hit and mines washing up on shore, said Martin Kelly, head of advisory at the consultancy EOS Risk. At the same time, said a tanker industry executive, “it doesn’t take much to put a mine back in because there is a lot of small-boat traffic going across Hormuz every night”. The uncertainty is Iran’s trump card. By claiming that mines remain, it has managed to exert control. Ships have been forced either to comply with Tehran’s recently established Persian Gulf Strait Authority and request permission to pass through the waterway — angering the US and potentially contravening US sanctions — or to risk taking the route that hugs the Omani coast, which the US has said is mine-free. Hamblet said: “The Iranians have realised that their strongest card is the perception that they control the Strait of Hormuz. If they can convince the world that they can threaten the strait, that’s their strongest source of strategic leverage.” Conversely, the US does not necessarily have to prove every mine has been removed; it simply needs to establish sufficient confidence that shipping can resume. That will be a challenge when about one in 30 ships are being attacked by missile and drone strikes at present, according to maritime security advisers. Hamblet said: “The bigger game is on the information side. That may be as important, if not more important, than what’s actually happening in the water or on the bottom of the strait.” |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Attached File More Truth Social Attached File
Iran's Security Council Secretary Rezaei: The Americans are trying to smuggle 5 to 6 vessels, spending a lot of money, but these ships are usually targeted. We have not yet decided to sink them, because they are carrying petroleum products. If they were to pollute the entire Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, it would create a problem for us as well. However, none of them pass through safely; eventually, they suffer some damage.
The Middle East oil landscape is undergoing a seismic shift. Crude oil exporting nations are establishing alternative routes to reduce the number of barrels sent through the SoH. Iraq is trucking more than 100 Kbpd to Syria to reach the Med Sea. The UAE is expected to double its pipeline capacity to the GoO sometime next year. Saudi Arabia already sends most of its crude oil exports via the Red Sea. Other countries are also exploring and developing alternative options. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
The Financial Times is reporting that Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery has been attacked for the second time in just over a month. The extent of the damage is still being assessed, and there are currently no reports of casualties. The attack comes amid a significant escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis since July. Saudi airstrikes on Houthi positions and the Houthis’ subsequent attacks on Saudi territory have increasingly focused on energy infrastructure and maritime traffic. The Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi linked shipping in the Red Sea in July and have claimed attacks against Saudi oil tankers, military targets and energy facilities. On August 9, the group claimed an attack on the Jizan refinery, where a fire was reported and later extinguished. The escalation has also spread into Yemen, with Saudi backed forces and the Houthis engaged in increasingly heavy fighting along the western coast. Recent clashes have raised concerns that the fragile 2022 ceasefire could be collapsing altogether. A second apparent strike on Jizan would mark another step in the widening Houthi-Saudi confrontation, particularly as the group continues to target Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping.
For the third time in a week, Hezbollah launched two explosive drones at Israeli troops operating in the Ali Taher Ridge area of southern Lebanon overnight, the military says, prompting strikes on the terror group in response. The IDF says that no injuries and were caused in the drone attack. In response, Hezbollah infrastructure sites in several areas of southern Lebanon, including a weapons depot, were targeted in airstrikes, the military says. Additionally, the army says it struck several Hezbollah operatives who were identified moving weaponry in the town of Kfar Remen. Lebanese media reported earlier that 11 people, including two children, were killed in strikes in Kfar Remen. The military says it is looking into the reports that civilians were harmed in the strikes. Additionally, in response to a separate Hezbollah drone attack on Sunday, the military says it struck and killed several members of the terror group in Nabatieh.
Lebanese media reports 11 dead and five wounded in Israeli airstrikes overnight in the southern Lebanon town of Kfar Reman. According to the National News Agency, a strike carried out by Israeli fighter jets on a residential building in the town after midnight killed nine people, including two children, and wounded five others. A separate drone strike on a car in Kfar Reman killed two paramedics of the Hezbollah-allied Amal movement's Risala Scouts, according to NNA. NNA adds that other Israeli strikes overnight hit Nabatieh and the nearby town of Arab Salim. A strike also destroyed a building in Deir al-Zahrani, after the IDF issued an evacuation warning for it. There is no immediate comment from the IDF on the strikes.
The IDF says it struck Hamas sites in the Gaza Strip overnight in response to an explosive device that hit a military vehicle yesterday. The Hamas bomb that struck an engineering vehicle operating on the Israeli side of the "Yellow Line" in the Strip's north caused no injuries, according to the military. The IDF says the incident was a "blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement by the Hamas terror organisation." In response, several Hamas infrastructure sites used by the terror group to advance attacks were struck overnight, the military adds. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday