I know plenty of women of "child bearing age" that care more about how much groceries cost, insurance cost, safety of their children, and getting woke shit out of schools than they do abortion. In fact, abortion is never even mentioned.

Maybe its because they already have kids, thus less likely to consider an abortion to begin with.

Actually Ron Johnson was 2022, not 2020. That was another example of ticket splitting, Republican senator  with Democrat Governor in 2022.

The same polls that have underperformed Trump turnout in 2016 and 2020. If they are now saying he is winning slightly or only losing by one point in some of these states that they had him down by 5 to 7% last time and Biden won by a point or less you got to wonder.

If the same polling trends are repeated this time he's going to win.

While I have no doubt the DNC was worried about the money she was prepositioned by Obama in 2020.

I take it he isn't from WY. There was zero chance she was winning that and everyone here knew it. Best part was when she went down to the University in Laramie and tried to win over the leftist students. They laughed at her. They hate her as much or more than the conservatives.

The women who care about abortion are generally miserable leftists who aren't bearing children or already have and are miserable about it.

Cat ladies for Harris is a sign I've seen.  I can guardamntee you that the woman who has that sign in her yard (because I know) never had kids and is a miserable person who was never married and probably dated once or twice and decided she hated men.

Its not as big of an issue as many make it out to be outside of wealthy liberal areas and people as I've described above.  It's why I believe it has been a less useful strategy against McCormick in our state compared to the out of state carpet bagger attack which worked well against Santorum in 2006.

They guy I know who is a huge Lincoln Project supporter and has an anti-Trump flag in his garage is some former .mil/NSA guy and was a fan of Liz Cheney.  He tries to explain to me as a libertarian (LOL) he thinks Trump is bad for the country.  He's an IT wonk for a well known company and I just usually leave him alone as he knows he's not selling me and I am not going to change his mind.

This.

The topic of abortion was great when life was easy and no one had any real problems.

Abortion isn't the issue it once was.  It only resonates with leftists and killing RVW was the best thing that could have been done.. Now the lefty states can bathe in infant blood, and the rest of us can have policies that make sense.  Only place I have seen it brought up this year is by the media.  Even my lefty friends and family aren't talking about it because they know what a shitty position the Dems have put this country in, in the name of equity and inclusivity.

Oh hell no. I bet you I’m the only working class, blue collar person he knows. He’s the epitome of the professional class “bubble” that thinks they are informed but only understand the perspective of CNN/NYT/MSNBC.

Even politically savvy lefties knew she didn’t stand a chance. But when you only get your takes from the MSM, you think people like her, Kinzinger, etc are “fighting for democracy” instead of what they are actually doing, which is lining their own pockets with money from suckers.

I love your analysis, OP. No homo.

Another observation: a woman is not going to be president until they stop running women that are bitchy and unlikeable.  

Uh oh.

I hope you're right because darned few women in politics meet those criteria.

Women don’t like women in authority.

If you're not retarded and wrong, then the only way to respond is to respond big like your life depends upon it...because it literally does.

Take a trip up to New England. Harris-Walz signs everywhere, even at households that didn't have Biden signs four years ago. It's mystifying.

Predictit has also switched from favoring Harris to Trump, the Honeymoon is indeed over and Harris is a dud.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

Attached File

Maybe a little homo?

I'm lonely.

The obstacle isn't the plumbing, it's the kind of women running.

I'd rather have had Sarah Palin as the candidate and the president than John McCain.

The women they pick to run are just fucking abominations.

Tulsi Gabbard ran. Now Tulsi Gabbard is on a terrorism watch list and Kamala is the nominee without anyone ever having voted for her. That ain't got nothin' to do with the electorate.

That's profound.

cenk from TYT (funniest video of them getting hit by a bus when Trump won the election) isn't happy over the election.

More delectable tidbits, this time from the culinary union in Nevada:

Wow. Culinary union official tells @politico that Trump is winning in Nevada. pic.twitter.com/l452dJGSL5

Victor Joecks  (@VictorJoecks) October 10, 2024

Translation: the union has endorsed Kamela, but their own surveys of their members shows that they're voting heavily for Trump. This is dismal news if you're a democrat because the various service worker unions in Nevada are the engine of democrat power in the state. They need those votes to win...anything, really.

This is heading towards, somewhere in between, an epic Carter loss and sorta epic Dukakis loss.

I predict in the next two weeks Kamala, grasping at straws, has the epic….moment

Barack Obama SOUNDS THE ALARM, says energy is down with black men:

“That seems to be more pronounced with the brothers…”

He then says black men should vote for Kamala because she knows the “struggles” of being black.

Pure identity politics from Obama. pic.twitter.com/LvlSUVZKBx

Charlie Kirk  (@charliekirk11) October 11, 2024

A sign of how truly desperate they are, Obama rolls out to Pittsburg to try and gin up the black vote, especially black men.

Even at that, Obama's message is outright pitiful.

She knows the struggles of being black because she put a ton of young brothers in jail for selling weed.

Loooots of yankee types there.

What I've learned over the years is that background is a more reliable predictor of voting behavior than anything else. The yankee types are more affluent, more college, more "professional" managerial types. Natural authoritarians who just think they're born to rule others.

Thus their voting preferences are largely predictable.

They're the same kind of people who heckled Ben Franklin in the cockpit.

Kamala isn't down with the struggle, she is the struggle.

You know that Obama hates to be associated with anything losing.  I'm sure at this point he's frustrated as hell he's even endorsed her (even though he prepositioned her for this).

Also, blacks in my AO aren't going to vote for Trump instead of Kamala.  They will more than likely just sit this out.  The black churches around here have been preaching high praise for Kamala but she's not exciting.  Your more upper middle class blacks are all about Kamala.

And they know it.

5 min in and I must say this is some of the most honest commentary on the current state of the election that I have heard from either side. This guy is their Swire.

Unlikely to flip the states in question in this cycle, but notable in terms of the general trend and momentum in the country, some voter registration numbers from NY and CA:

NEW YORK

Change in Voter Registration by Party since 2020

49 of 62 counties shift Republican, including 4 of 5 NYC boroughs

Shifts diluted by Automatic Voter Registration registering more non-partisans

Of note, last update is from 7 months ago.  This will likely be much… pic.twitter.com/Hz76tdxQ2M

Seth Keshel  (@RealSKeshel) October 11, 2024

CALIFORNIA

Voter Registration by Party - Change since 2020

38 of 58 counties shift Republican

Automatic Voter Registration dilutes meaningful change

Bay Area - doomed pic.twitter.com/h6YrHaElWp

Seth Keshel  (@RealSKeshel) October 11, 2024

Trump is making a point to go and campaign in blue states, but crucially in congressional districts that are flippable...meaning he's consolidating power.

If the Republicans increase their majority in the house...and all evidence I'm seeing shows that they will, and by a significant number...and regains control of the senate it will be on his coat tails. That's going to be a real problem for Bitch McConnel to deal with.

One of the things I try to impress upon people when looking at how big Trumps coat tails may or may not be is the simple fact that for a considerable amount of time the conservatives who vote get absolutely nothing for that vote .

The GOPe has lived and died with the fact that we conservatives vote for them so Dems don’t get elected for one simple reason . Dems give their voters what they want .

Dems as a whole want the destruction of America . They want to hurt Americans . Dems give them that in spades .

We all saw the GOPe fight trump for 4 years , we know they’ll do it again . That can put a damper on people being motivated enough to vote for anyone other than voting for trump .

It’s going to be a huge shitshow in 28 , when the reality of going back to all GOPe all the time sets in on trump voters .

Negative. We have Vance, Desantis, Tulsi and Vivek to take the banner and push the movement. It will only grow in power if not destroyed by force.

Tulsi euthanized that bitch with one statement in the Dem primary debate. They didn't forget.

Cue 'Something Gate' Part II:  Impeach Trump Boogaloo and a new special council.  They are going to attempt to run the same playbook....again....as they did last time.

Good analysis in the OP!

I predict a Trump blowout in actual votes and a close race after they cheat. Trump is going to win.

ArrestedByKamala.com -

Cheree Peoples and daughter Shayla tell the story of how Kamala Harris's policy as California Attorney General to arrest parents for “truancy” destroyed their lives and the lives of many other single minority women as well.
 Shayla suffered from a debilitating chronic illness, Sickle Cell Anemia. The disease landed her repeatedly in the hospital to receive blood transfusions and emergency medical care to manage her pain. All of Shayla's absences were, in fact, excused by her school and buttressed with ample documentation from Children's Hospital.
 None of this mattered to Kamala Harris, who wanted more kids in school to get more money from the state and federal governments, who provided funding according to attendance rates.
 Kamala had Cheree arrested, handcuffed and perp walked in her pajamas in front of her neighbors and the media who had been tipped off. Outraged by the injustice, Cheree fought the charges in court for the next two years, costing her job and her home.
 “I am not a political person,” says Cheree. “But I want people to know what Kamala Harris did to me. If she does it to me, she will abuse anyone if you give her the power.

My message to all Americans, especially black Americans is, do not trust Kamala Harris!”

Truth.

We're on the ascent.

POLL: Trump getting more Muslim votes in MICHIGAN than Harris, while Jill Stein gets more than both.

Lmfao.pic.twitter.com/fqHF2mZzVC

Eric Daugherty  (@EricLDaugh) October 11, 2024

...and now we see that Jill Steyn is beating Kamala among muslim voters in Michigan and so badly that now Kamala's campaign is running attack ads against Jill Steyn there.

Not exactly a position of strength, eh?

She's done in Michigan.

And others...

I for one will not vote for a Bush/Romney/McCain type again.

I don't think I am alone.

Brand new Mark Halperin posted 15 minutes ago --  'Kamala has trouble all over the map. The polling is accurate. Trump is winning.'pic.twitter.com/1aZwbVswEo

Citizen Free Press  (@CitizenFreePres) October 12, 2024

Kamala's collapse is beginning. I think we're on scenario 2 I proposed earlier, Trump with 312 electoral college votes...but the situation is still changing.

We have another proxy indicator in Virginia:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/justice-department-sues-virginia-voter-rolls-election-day-rcna175117

We're less than a month out and the DOJ is filing suit.

It is unlikely this action would be taken if they were confident in winning Virginia.

Virginia during COVID was an anomaly. It tends to be close in big elections, barely going for Hillary, barely going for shitbird governors like Kaine and Warner. The DOJ is suing, it appears, to help return some ballots that corrupt blue cities in Virginia (but I repeat myself) can fudge to hand out some electoral votes to Kameltoe.

The Lord works in mysterious ways.

It seems that Donny is on a solid track to victory.

I really fear an “October Surprise”.

They’re going to try something, anything, to stop him. And they wont play fair.

I've been playing with "270 to win" and no matter how you slice it, the election always comes down to Pennsylvania. Trump needs to keep North Carolina in the aftermath of the hurricane, so assuming that, he could lose all of the following:

Arizona
Nevada
Wisconsin
New Hampshire
Virginia
Michigan

...but if he wins PA, he wins the election.

He is looking good in NV PA keep looking better for him.

Correct. Kamela doesn't have a path without PA, not a realistic one.

But here's the thing: The states you listed there are not completely independent actors. Historically, as PA goes so too does Wisconsin and Michigan and that's attributable to the demographics in play. Same with AZ and Nevada. There were recent polls showing Trump up six in Nevada. If he's up six in Nevada he's up more than that in Arizona, again because of demographics.

There is another undercurrent going on here that is worthy of note in heavily blue states. Trump isn't going to win in California, but he's performing dramatically better in the interior of CA than he did previously.

Hillary's popular vote margin can be accounted for by NYC, LA, and San Fran. That's it. When people bitch about the electoral college they're arguing that those three cities should decide who is president, which is retarded and exactly why the founders set up the EC.

But this cycle instead of Trump being beaten by almost 30 points, it looks like he might only lose CA by a margin of 10 points. It's looking like that might be the case in NY, too. Trump is going to these deep blue states to campaign to get turnout and to boost congressional races. This is where the for-now low rumble of Trump winning the popular vote comes from. If he cuts the margins down in places like CA and NY, it is going to mean easy wins in the swing states and it might even mean he pulls out the popular vote.

If Trump wins the popular vote expect to see heads melt like the Nazis when they opened the ark in Indiana Jones. They won't know WTF to do with themselves if that happens.

When you see press stories start circling Kameltoe and blaming her for everything, you can know then that even the presstitutes are capitulating to what's happening. Expect that to start happening within the next two weeks.

I started this thread to lay down a marker on making calls so they could be judged for accuracy later.

I'd say the odds are about 3:1 that we're going to see a cratering of Kameltoe's polls inside the next two weeks. Polls that have been propaganda will start trying to put out more accurate data to save credibility.

That 1:3 is that they keep the delusion going and then democrats get shocked on election night when the margins are sufficient that there's no mail-in scheme big enough to overcome. Then they will lose their goddamn minds and if we're lucky they will actually have the melt down that they accused the Trumpers of having in 2020, including doing some catastrophically stupid shit on January 6th, 2025.

Agree completely. I really hope his security is up to the task for now and frankly for the rest of his life.