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Posted: 10/29/2024 10:58:02 AM EST
[#1]
On Election Day Trump will start off with a commanding lead because Republicans are more likely to vote in person and rural areas with low populations will be first to finish counting.
Later as the more urban areas finish counting their in person ballots the lead will shrink. Lastly the lead will shrink further as mailed in ballots, which are democrat leaning, are counted. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 11:25:32 AM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: On Election Day Trump will start off with a commanding lead because Republicans are more likely to vote in person and rural areas with low populations will be first to finish counting. Later as the more urban areas finish counting their in person ballots the lead will shrink. Lastly the lead will shrink further as mailed in ballots, which are democrat leaning, are counted. I say that NOW, but this is probably an accurate picture of what I'm going to be doing in a week:  Then some days later:  |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 11:29:44 AM EST
[#3]
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Posted: 10/29/2024 11:33:32 AM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: On Election Day Trump will start off with a commanding lead because Republicans are more likely to vote in person and rural areas with low populations will be first to finish counting. Later as the more urban areas finish counting their in person ballots the lead will shrink. Lastly the lead will shrink further as mailed in ballots, which are democrat leaning, are counted. Here's the problem: we know how many absentee and mail-in ballot requests there are in various states. It's significantly less than in 2020. We also know how many early votes there are. Indeed, several of my posts in this thread have been on accounts tracking that closely. We have pretty good data on who, exactly, is early voting and what propensity voter they are. We also have pretty good data on party registration in the states that have it, including critical states like PA. Apart from Nevada's shenanigans...which might not be enough to matter...we're going to have a pretty good idea on election night whether it's close enough for uncounted mail-in ballots to even matter. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 11:35:15 AM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: I see it as a referendum on whether we want to collectively keep western civilization. Damn. That's the truest thing I've seen posted on this site. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 11:42:40 AM EST
[#6]
Kamala is rerouting resources into Virginia. Indicating again Virginia's critical role. If she's in trouble here, she's in the deepest trouble imaginable. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 11:44:28 AM EST
[#7]
In regards to Va.
Trump needs to be leading all night by 8%+ before NOVA reports in to have a chance at winning Va. 6.5-8% could go either way. Under 6.5% Va is Cumlala's Va goes Trump, Trump wins, there isn't really a way for a blue state like Va going Trump then State like Mi and Pa going for Cumlala. Va is increasingly less rural, college educated and immigrant full. All of which typically favors Communists. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 11:50:22 AM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Likely too close to call on election night Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Originally Posted By 0002s: So in a week this is either going to be the most epic red wave bust or the largest electoral mandate since Regan 1984. Likely too close to call on election night Yeah I don't see it being settled on election night. Pennsylvania has already said it'll take several days. Funny it didn't take that long to call Fetterman in 2022. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 11:59:22 AM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wyomingnick: Funny it didn't take that long to call Fetterman in 2022. That was (D)ifferent. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 1:06:42 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: I see it as a referendum on whether we want to collectively keep western civilization. 
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Posted: 10/29/2024 1:25:20 PM EST
[#11]
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Posted: 10/29/2024 1:26:17 PM EST
[#12]
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Posted: 10/29/2024 1:27:08 PM EST
[#13]
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Posted: 10/29/2024 1:31:55 PM EST
[#14]
At this point in the election, it’s all about momentum. They used to call it “big Mo”. The media isn’t talking about momentum at all. They are not even mentioning the word. That’s because all of the momentum is favoring Trump. Even pulls that still have Harris in the lead, show that lead shrinking. Nowhere is she improving her position.
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Posted: 10/29/2024 1:46:49 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheRealBluedog: At this point in the election, it’s all about momentum. They used to call it “big Mo”. The media isn’t talking about momentum at all. They are not even mentioning the word. That’s because all of the momentum is favoring Trump. Even pulls that still have Harris in the lead, show that lead shrinking. Nowhere is she improving her position. Yup its beautiful, I'm still worried about the fraud factor though so could go either way. But im hopeful. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 1:58:46 PM EST
[#16]
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MS, USA
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Posted: 10/29/2024 2:02:49 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
That just means the Democrats need to print off lots more mail in ballots. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 10/29/2024 2:04:19 PM EST
[Last Edit: Pokernut]
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
Kamala is rerouting resources into Virginia. Indicating again Virginia's critical role. If she's in trouble here, she's in the deepest trouble imaginable. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 2:12:30 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
That means the GOP needs to allocate more as well. Make them fight for the Old Dominion. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 2:40:02 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ExFed1811: That just means the Democrats need to print off lots more mail in ballots. Looks like they`re trying.  |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 2:41:26 PM EST
[Last Edit: John_Wayne777]
[#21]
I don't know that I believe the margins on this one. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 2:55:10 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
I don't know that I believe the margins on this one. That would be a good pick up |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 5:12:32 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: That would be a good pick up Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Originally Posted By John_Wayne777:
I don't know that I believe the margins on this one. That would be a good pick up Agreed, that would be an awesome surprise. Not holding my breath on that one, though. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 6:29:36 PM EST
[#24]
I don't believe Harris is ahead in NC for a second. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 6:45:10 PM EST
[#25]
Yeah, seems highly unlikely she would be cancelling ad buys in NC if it was actually that close. Her internal polling must show it's already lost.
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Posted: 10/29/2024 7:09:01 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
I don't believe Harris is ahead in NC for a second. It might be hard to poll those hit by the hurricane. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 7:28:54 PM EST
[Last Edit: kbi]
[#27]
 Attached FileFake poll worker telling people they can't vote  Attached File Attached File |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 10/29/2024 8:35:42 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kbi:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/77256/Screenshot_20241029_201609_Chrome_jpg-3362358.JPG Fake poll worker telling people they can't vote https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/77256/Screenshot_20241029_201622_Chrome_jpg-3362360.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/77256/Screenshot_20241029_201700_Chrome_jpg-3362361.JPG What does "cut at PM" mean? Did the close at the close of the polling time? Does early voting have the same cut off as election day voting? I'm not sure how outraged I'm supposed to be by this. |
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Posted: 10/29/2024 10:40:20 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Yeah, seems highly unlikely she would be cancelling ad buys in NC if it was actually that close. Her internal polling must show it's already lost. Got a link to that ? |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 5:11:29 AM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wyomingnick: Got a link to that ? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wyomingnick: Originally Posted By RTX: Yeah, seems highly unlikely she would be cancelling ad buys in NC if it was actually that close. Her internal polling must show it's already lost. Got a link to that ? No, sorry, I saw it in another thread here, but don't remember the source. I'll see if I can find it, but I've read so many election threads lately I'm not sure which one it was in. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 5:16:33 AM EST
[#31]
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Posted: 10/30/2024 6:07:48 AM EST
[#32]
It’s a trick - enthusiasm gap suppression.
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Posted: 10/30/2024 6:36:42 AM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
I don't know that I believe the margins on this one. Upon further review and finding out how accurate this pollster was in prior elections in AZ, I now believe this margin. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 7:31:34 AM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Upon further review and finding out how accurate this pollster was in prior elections in AZ, I now believe this margin. Hopefully the "anomalies" that took place in Maricopa have been addressed. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 7:51:46 AM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1911SFOREVER: Hopefully the "anomalies" that took place in Maricopa have been addressed. That's one of the reasons why so many more early votes are happening in AZ. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 7:59:15 AM EST
[#36]
Biden out there trying to return the favor to Kamala. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 8:27:38 AM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
I don't believe Harris is ahead in NC for a second. Nope, she just pulled all of her staff out of NC to concentrate on VA. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 2:03:30 PM EST
[#38]
PA shenanigans being aggressively fought. Bucks is a county where registration this cycle flipped from a D advantage to an R advantage. This was an area of heavy focus for pro-Trump electioneering and it's highly likely that the additional time for ballot drop off will bring in more Republican votes. Another in the series of small reasons why I think PA is beyond Kamala's reach. She can't win without PA. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 2:07:18 PM EST
[#39]
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Posted: 10/30/2024 2:09:02 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
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Posted: 10/30/2024 2:09:50 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
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Posted: 10/30/2024 2:10:55 PM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Upon further review and finding out how accurate this pollster was in prior elections in AZ, I now believe this margin. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 2:13:31 PM EST
[#43]
 Attached File |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 2:20:46 PM EST
[#44]
Ha!
Judge saw what happened werr the polls were closed early  Attached File
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Posted: 10/30/2024 3:23:30 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kbi:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/77256/Screenshot_20241030_150105_Chrome_jpg-3363102.JPG That voter ID was used to vote 29 times? There is no such thing as voter fraud, there is no such thing as voter fraud. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 3:25:01 PM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kbi:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/77256/Screenshot_20241030_150105_Chrome_jpg-3363102.JPG Wow. |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 4:18:11 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kbi:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/77256/Screenshot_20241030_150105_Chrome_jpg-3363102.JPG are those being tossed out or what? |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 4:30:13 PM EST
[#48]
I'm getting nervous. RCP now showing the Bitch up in Wisconsin and Michigan
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Posted: 10/30/2024 5:37:54 PM EST
[Last Edit: kbi]
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Rival14: are those being tossed out or what? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Rival14: Originally Posted By kbi:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/77256/Screenshot_20241030_150105_Chrome_jpg-3363102.JPG are those being tossed out or what? Looks like the RNC is involved and contesting the 125,,428 votes  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/30/2024 5:43:57 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Rival14: are those being tossed out or what? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Rival14: Originally Posted By kbi:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/77256/Screenshot_20241030_150105_Chrome_jpg-3363102.JPG are those being tossed out or what? Highly doubt they'll be tossed. More information would be good, be nice to see it confirmed true rather then rumor. It should be getting a lot of attention. I hope if true, Trump gets lawyers on it fast. |
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