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Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:00:59 AM EDT
[#1]
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Quoted:


Can we get some credible recommendations on this subject? I'd like to read something that isn't propaganda or hysteria.
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On Thermonuclear War, by Herman Khan.
Managing Nuclear Operations, by the Brookings Institute and edited by Ashton Carter.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:02:35 AM EDT
[#2]
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Quoted:
Hmnnnn Ft Bragg isn't on there..
I would think an Army Division, an SF group, a Corps command, Socom, Forcecom, and the red roof inn would be a great target. With the emphasis on FORCCOM
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What role do they play in the nuclear command and control system?
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:14:19 AM EDT
[#3]
Whiteman is downwind.  Kirtland is far.

I should be OK.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:16:15 AM EDT
[#4]
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Quoted:


The majority of which can't be launched/used, just like ours.

For example:  there were 5,280 W68 reentry vehicles built for the Poseidon missile (predecessor to Trident).  The last one of those was put in the inactive reserve stockpile in 1991.  Not only is that weapon "inactive," we couldn't use it today, because the way that weapon talked to its weapon system was unique, and getting it to where it could be used by a current weapon system today would require so much rework it'd be easier to design a whole new weapon.  In other words, it's Poseidon, so no hablo Trident or Minuteman or B2, so no worky.  

So, misleading and irrelevant number.  The number you are looking for is 1550, which is the number of operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons allowed by treaty.
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Why do we stockpile all of these unusable weapons? Are they just safe guarded in the stockpile while they await disassembly, or do we hang on to them like my Grandmother did with empty cottage cheese containers?

We still have the warheads from the MMIIIs, from when we de-MIRV'd those things right? So there would be some valuable weapons in our reserve/stockpile right? 
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:22:04 AM EDT
[#5]
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Quoted:

Why do we stockpile all of these unusable weapons? Are they just safe guarded in the stockpile while they await disassembly, or do we hang on to them like my Grandmother did with empty cottage cheese containers?

We still have the warheads from the MMIIIs, from when we de-MIRV'd those things right? So there would be some valuable weapons in our reserve/stockpile right? 
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Your grandmother did that too?  

Most are awaiting disassembly.  That takes time and money, and we haven't really thrown the money at the problem to make those weapons go away quickly.  Some of them are so old that they basically have to reverse-engineer them, to figure out how to dismantle them safely.  

Example:  B53 retirement.

The stockpile's in three parts--operationally deployed (on an ICBM/SLBM or sitting in an igloo at a bomber base), active (those weapons not operationally deployed, but of the same type as those that are), and inactive reserve (obsolete and awaiting dismantlement).
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:22:51 AM EDT
[#6]
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Quoted:


What role do they play in the nuclear command and control system?
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Didn't you know? Fort Bragg is the center of the universe for the military.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:35:39 AM EDT
[#7]
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Quoted:


On Thermonuclear War, by Herman Khan.
Managing Nuclear Operations, by the Brookings Institute and edited by Ashton Carter.
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The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, by Glasstone
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:37:04 AM EDT
[#8]
If this was a strike against a target that wouldn't fight back it would make sense, in reality....
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:42:33 AM EDT
[#9]
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Quoted:


The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, by Glasstone
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Great book, I have two copies (1964 and 1977 editions), one with the whizwheel, but those are more about the aftermath and less about nuclear war theory and doctrine.  In other words, about what happens, as opposed to why.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:43:34 AM EDT
[#10]
Even LeRoy ,NY was on the target list years ago.  Lapp Insulator company is there and they were the only company in the US that made insulators for high voltage transmission lines.  

Industries are targeted too.  Not just military bases.   China figured out a less expensive way to knock out our industrial might.  They simply purchased our factories and moved them to China.  We can no longer fight a prolonged conventional war against a major power.  We don't have the factories necessary to convert to wartime production.  This makes reaching for the "football" a more certain outcome in such a situation.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:45:14 AM EDT
[#11]
Looks like wishful thinking to me.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 10:57:45 AM EDT
[#12]
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Quoted:
No.  1550 is the magic number.

Math time:  

450 Minuteman launch facilities.  
45 Minuteman launch control centers.
2 bomber bases.
2 sub bases.
Roughly 15-20 nuclear command and control facilities plus an unknown "other" in the nuclear infrastructure (like Hill AFB).  

Figure all of the above are in the "absolutely must die" category.

Probability of kill of a single weapon is always < 1, sometimes significantly.  Which means if it's in the "must die" category, you'll need to get the Pk as close to 1 as possible...which means more than one weapon per.  

So, word problem for the student:

520 (ish) sites. Assume 2:1 and in some cases 3:1 targeting for each site.  How many weapons are left out of that 1550 for a strategic reserve?
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Quoted:
Little lacking as they would also target logistics. The gulf coast would be wiped out to limit the petro and chemical industry. 
No.  1550 is the magic number.

Math time:  

450 Minuteman launch facilities.  
45 Minuteman launch control centers.
2 bomber bases.
2 sub bases.
Roughly 15-20 nuclear command and control facilities plus an unknown "other" in the nuclear infrastructure (like Hill AFB).  

Figure all of the above are in the "absolutely must die" category.

Probability of kill of a single weapon is always < 1, sometimes significantly.  Which means if it's in the "must die" category, you'll need to get the Pk as close to 1 as possible...which means more than one weapon per.  

So, word problem for the student:

520 (ish) sites. Assume 2:1 and in some cases 3:1 targeting for each site.  How many weapons are left out of that 1550 for a strategic reserve?
I love all the "My town has a factory in it, we're the number 5 Soviet/Russian target" folks. Few people can actually say they live in or grew up in a Top 10 nuclear missile target. My Dad spent 5 1/2 years as an FM for a Minuteman LCF  (usually Foxtrot) at Malmstrom AFB. If anybody was a top target, it was Malmstrom AFB and the surrounding area.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:00:58 AM EDT
[#13]
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Quoted:
No chance OKC doesn't get hit, Dyess AFB too.
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Shhhhh!...loose lips.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:02:20 AM EDT
[#14]
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Quoted:


I love all the "My town has a factory in it, we're the number 5 Soviet/Russian target" folks. Few people can actually say they live in or grew up in a Top 10 nuclear missile target. My Dad spent 5 1/2 years as an FM for a Minuteman LCF  (usually Foxtrot) at Malmstrom AFB. If anybody was a top target, it was Malmstrom AFB and the surrounding area.
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We lived at Grand Forks AFB from 77-80. 
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:02:48 AM EDT
[#15]
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Quoted:


I love all the "My town has a factory in it, we're the number 5 Soviet/Russian target" folks. Few people can actually say they live in or grew up in a Top 10 nuclear missile target. My Dad spent 5 1/2 years as an FM for a Minuteman LCF  (usually Foxtrot) at Malmstrom AFB. If anybody was a top target, it was Malmstrom AFB and the surrounding area.
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To be fair the MRE little Tobasco bottle plant in Bumfuk, USA might be the #5 Soviet nu-Q-lar target, but I'm not familiar with the effects of the dreaded nu-Q-lar bombs.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:04:54 AM EDT
[#16]
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Quoted:


Great book, I have two copies (1964 and 1977 editions), one with the whizwheel, but those are more about the aftermath and less about nuclear war theory and doctrine.  In other words, about what happens, as opposed to why.
View Quote
Kissinger-Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy 1958.  After you read Kahn.

Brodie-Development of Nuclear Strategy
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:20:59 AM EDT
[#17]
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Quoted:
Complete and utter BS.  They've got every power plant in Ohio listed as a target, for example.  

One of the techniques used by Greenpeace, Plowshares, etc.  is to make sure that every American has a target nearby so they can feel threatened.  This looks like one of their maps.
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Quoted:
Complete and utter BS.  They've got every power plant in Ohio listed as a target, for example.  

One of the techniques used by Greenpeace, Plowshares, etc.  is to make sure that every American has a target nearby so they can feel threatened.  This looks like one of their maps.
yeah, I knew it wasn't a accurate map when they don't even have a base like Whiteman listed as a target.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:24:08 AM EDT
[#18]
I remember growing up hearing that Ithaca was a target for a Cold War strike.
Why? I'm being serious.

Cornell had its cyclotron decomnissioned, I thought.

Would any/all TYPES of nuclear facilities be a target?
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:29:55 AM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
No.  1550 is the magic number.

Math time:  

450 Minuteman launch facilities.  
45 Minuteman launch control centers.
2 bomber bases.
2 sub bases.
Roughly 15-20 nuclear command and control facilities plus an unknown "other" in the nuclear infrastructure (like Hill AFB).  

Figure all of the above are in the "absolutely must die" category.

Probability of kill of a single weapon is always < 1, sometimes significantly.  Which means if it's in the "must die" category, you'll need to get the Pk as close to 1 as possible...which means more than one weapon per.  

So, word problem for the student:

520 (ish) sites. Assume 2:1 and in some cases 3:1 targeting for each site.  How many weapons are left out of that 1550 for a strategic reserve?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Little lacking as they would also target logistics. The gulf coast would be wiped out to limit the petro and chemical industry. 
No.  1550 is the magic number.

Math time:  

450 Minuteman launch facilities.  
45 Minuteman launch control centers.
2 bomber bases.
2 sub bases.
Roughly 15-20 nuclear command and control facilities plus an unknown "other" in the nuclear infrastructure (like Hill AFB).  

Figure all of the above are in the "absolutely must die" category.

Probability of kill of a single weapon is always < 1, sometimes significantly.  Which means if it's in the "must die" category, you'll need to get the Pk as close to 1 as possible...which means more than one weapon per.  

So, word problem for the student:

520 (ish) sites. Assume 2:1 and in some cases 3:1 targeting for each site.  How many weapons are left out of that 1550 for a strategic reserve?
I like this information
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:34:23 AM EDT
[#20]
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Quoted:
You missed Hampton Roads, VA the highest concentration of military instillations on earth.
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Yeah, that's what I was going to say. I'm calling BS on that map. Not because things are inaccurate but that it's incomplete.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:34:58 AM EDT
[#21]
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Quoted:
If nukes start flying I'm heading to Mexico. Nobody gives a shit about them.
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probably where the Russians and Chicoms would land.
I'd wager they could pick up a shit load of cannon fodder there to.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:37:10 AM EDT
[#22]
Such bullshit.  San Diego and Norfolk are obvious high-value targets because of naval bases.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 11:56:13 AM EDT
[#23]
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That map talks like a fag and its shit's all retarded. Tuscaloosa, AL a target in a 500 warhead scenario? There's nothing here but retirees, rednecks, and football.

Well, who knows? Maybe Russia has Bama fatigue.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:09:02 PM EDT
[#24]
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Quoted:


I love all the "My town has a factory in it, we're the number 5 Soviet/Russian target" folks. Few people can actually say they live in or grew up in a Top 10 nuclear missile target. My Dad spent 5 1/2 years as an FM for a Minuteman LCF  (usually Foxtrot) at Malmstrom AFB. If anybody was a top target, it was Malmstrom AFB and the surrounding area.
View Quote
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:11:27 PM EDT
[#25]
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Quoted:


I love all the "My town has a factory in it, we're the number 5 Soviet/Russian target" folks. Few people can actually say they live in or grew up in a Top 10 nuclear missile target. My Dad spent 5 1/2 years as an FM for a Minuteman LCF  (usually Foxtrot) at Malmstrom AFB. If anybody was a top target, it was Malmstrom AFB and the surrounding area.
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Red Dawgs!

I was a Farsider, so I went east from malmstrom.  Waaaaaaaaay east.  
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:11:50 PM EDT
[#26]
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Quoted:

We lived at Grand Forks AFB from 77-80. 
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My first assignment was there.  89-94.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:12:05 PM EDT
[#27]
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Quoted:
Didn't you know? Fort Bragg is the center of the universe for the military.
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Quoted:
Quoted:

What role do they play in the nuclear command and control system?
Didn't you know? Fort Bragg is the center of the universe for the military.
And after that it's Austin. They have things
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:12:20 PM EDT
[#28]
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Quoted:


Kissinger-Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy 1958.  After you read Kahn.

Brodie-Development of Nuclear Strategy
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I've read Kissinger's, but haven't gotten around to Brodie yet.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:13:32 PM EDT
[#29]
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Quoted:


I've read Kissinger's, but haven't gotten around to Brodie yet.
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Brodie was the first nuclear strategist.  Everything started with him.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:16:32 PM EDT
[#30]
Picked a good day to be Tacair
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:43:16 PM EDT
[#31]
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Quoted:
Such bullshit.  San Diego and Norfolk are obvious high-value targets because of naval bases.
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Like lima says, not "must die" targets.

I mean, come on---in this hypothetical you're in charge of Russia when you decide it's nuclear party time.  Are you really going to prioritize naval bases where naval vessels can go to be repaired and rearmed?  Just how long do you envision this conflict lasting now that nukes are flying back and forth?  I mean, East Anglia has some very good flint deposits, should you target them to hinder the production of arrowheads?  It has about as much relevance I reckon.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 12:59:30 PM EDT
[#32]
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Quoted:
Such bullshit.  San Diego and Norfolk are obvious high-value targets because of naval bases.
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Just because you aren't worth a bomb doesn't mean you aren't special.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 1:00:43 PM EDT
[#33]
LOL strategic missile integration complex L OH FUCKING EL
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 1:06:41 PM EDT
[#34]
I don't understand how Pearl Harbor isn't on that map.  One strike takes out the C&C structure for the Pacific - PACOM, PACAF, PACFLT, FMFPAC, USARPAC (aka UselessPac).  Not to mention Pearl Harbor, Hickam, ammo docks and missile/torpedo storage at West Loch, and fuel storage at Pearl and Red Hill.  Cripples electrical power generation for the island by taking out two of the four main generating stations.  

A strike at the VLF station at Lualualei also takes out the primary ammo storage location for all services in Hawaii.  On the upside it also takes out Nanakuli.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 1:17:59 PM EDT
[#35]
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Quoted:
I don't understand how Pearl Harbor isn't on that map.  One strike takes out the C&C structure for the Pacific - PACOM, PACAF, PACFLT, FMFPAC, USARPAC (aka UselessPac).  Not to mention Pearl Harbor, Hickam, ammo docks and missile/torpedo storage at West Loch, and fuel storage at Pearl and Red Hill.  Cripples electrical power generation for the island by taking out two of the four main generating stations.  

A strike at the VLF station at Lualualei also takes out the primary ammo storage location for all services in Hawaii.  On the upside it also takes out Nanakuli.
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Again, why would you waste warheads on things that will not be able to hurt you in the current conflict, while needlessly endangering civilians, and ignoring the enemy's nuclear forces?

"Yes!  We got their ammo supplies!  Now they will be hard pressed to reload their magazines in a few weeks when their ships return to rearm and this war is over!  That'll show 'em!"
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 1:23:55 PM EDT
[#36]
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Quoted:


Great book, I have two copies (1964 and 1977 editions), one with the whizwheel, but those are more about the aftermath and less about nuclear war theory and doctrine.  In other words, about what happens, as opposed to why.
View Quote
1977 version pdf
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 2:11:01 PM EDT
[#37]
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Quoted:


Because shooting ALL of your ammo in the first firefight is such an excellent strategy...
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Letting it sit there and get wiped out by a first strike doesn't sound so great either.  Are the missiles sites vulnerable or not?
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 2:13:59 PM EDT
[#38]
Targets makes no sense.


They are hardened against nuke attacks and prepared for it.




If they want to do us damage?  Cut off the cable tv streams.   Place will tear itself apart due to not being able to watch reality tv and msm shit.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 2:19:04 PM EDT
[#39]
As they don't seem to show up as minute man III sites, what are the missile site looking places along US 85/18 in SE WY?
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 2:48:21 PM EDT
[#40]
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Quoted:
LOL strategic missile integration complex L OH FUCKING EL
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"The Strategic Missile Integration Complex at Hill AFB has three  ICBM silos, complete in every way, but containing only inert missiles: two rigged for Minuteman IIIs and one for a Peacekeeper. Each is connected to an above-ground launch console to simulate alert status. There the guidance system is hooked to a Rapid Execution and Combat Targeting console to go through missile launch simulations. Actual missile crews conduct these tests."

Huh... I did not know that... off to google maps to poke around...
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 2:52:45 PM EDT
[#41]
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Quoted:

"The Strategic Missile Integration Complex at Hill AFB has three  ICBM silos, complete in every way, but containing only inert missiles: two rigged for Minuteman IIIs and one for a Peacekeeper. Each is connected to an above-ground launch console to simulate alert status. There the guidance system is hooked to a Rapid Execution and Combat Targeting console to go through missile launch simulations. Actual missile crews conduct these tests."

Huh... I did not know that... off to google maps to poke around...
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RECT.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 3:21:20 PM EDT
[#42]
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 3:44:49 PM EDT
[#43]
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Quoted:


Again, why would you waste warheads on things that will not be able to hurt you in the current conflict, while needlessly endangering civilians, and ignoring the enemy's nuclear forces?

"Yes!  We got their ammo supplies!  Now they will be hard pressed to reload their magazines in a few weeks when their ships return to rearm and this war is over!  That'll show 'em!"
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Go back and re-read the first sentence, it is key.  One warhead takes out the entire C&C structure for the Pacific in addition to any nuclear capable ships in harbor.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 4:08:09 PM EDT
[#44]
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Quoted:


We (nor the Russians) haven't targeted cities since the 70s, when improvements in accuracy (and sanity in war planning) made minute-of-barn-door CEPs a thing of the past.  

As mentioned previously, targeting cities discourages restraint.
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This would have been nice to know growing up in the 80's scared shitless of Nuclear Armageddon.  Also didn't know "Restraint" and "Nuclear war" were ever in the same sentence together.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 4:49:25 PM EDT
[#45]
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Quoted:


Go back and re-read the first sentence, it is key.  One warhead takes out the entire C&C structure for the Pacific in addition to any nuclear capable ships in harbor.
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I read a book last year called The Day After WWIII, which was written back in the 80s. They went into detail about general war plans for a nuclear war. 

The assumption that the Pentagon has always made is that there wouldn't be a total sneak attack. They monitor for one, but they assumed that WWIII would be proceeded by Russian Dan American troops killing each other somewhere in the world prior to a nuclear exchange. This would probably be preceded by a political crisis. So, those two things would give commanders time to protect forces by deploying fleets, arming bomber wings, etc. 

The general idea would be that the Russkies would have attacked NATO and the US would have used tactical nuclear weapons in theater against the red forces. The Russkies would respond by launching against our missile bases, sub bases and bomber bases. They would also take out Washington DC to try and take out our military and political leadership. After the Russian attack, whoever is president (it was assumed that the president would be killed in the first strike) would choose retaliatory options using surviving forces. The Pentagon didn't even want an immediate response, because they would want the new president to evaluate the situation 

So, if you're the Russian, limited to 1,550 strategic warheads, you really need to take out the Minuiteman III bases, the bomber bases and the nuclear arsenals. That would limit our response to some degree, but some missiles would survive and some bombers would survive. Our subs would also be at sea and each of them would have 20-24 Trident missiles, each with 3 MIRV warheads with a 100 kt yield on each. So, a minimum of 60 warheads per sub, with probably 10 SLBMs at sea. 

What we would use them on would depend entirely on the state of the war at that time. If you kill too many Americans with no strategic value then the response would probably be more vengeful. 

I would think that some places would be considered strategically valuable, but if you're Russia and you opt to drop an 800 kt warhead on SanDiego instead of a missile silo in Montana, then the 350 kt warhead you left intact is more likely to be used against a target with a lot of Russians in harms way. 

That said, there are some stories saying that when they were negotiating the New START treaty, the Russians agreed to the 1,550 limit on warheads because it would allow them to hold 300 American metropolitan areas at risk. This would most likely be in a retaliatory strike though, where we bombed them first and they hit back. In a Russian first strike scenario, they would probably go after our nukes first. 
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 5:35:17 PM EDT
[#46]
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Quoted:
No ports? No clf transmitter in CA?  I always figured it would be ports, major infrastructure, ....if you can't win the first exchange..MAD, make them regret it by turning them into a 3rd world country.  

Top 10 ports by trade, all military ports(which over lap), major refinerys(more overlap), St Louis,  quad citys, keokuk and Quincy, il.  The loss of briges, dams, and locks split US in half,  hit top five rail hubs, chicago, kansas city....interstate and rail passes in rockys...split country into 3rds.

Really want to be mean?, hit the powder river basin and the Illinois coal fields with a few penatrators to vaporize and ignite the coal fields.


Destroy the capital?, makes them martyrs.  Leave them so the population belives they saved themselves and the people will mob them soon enough as they declare martial law and consolidate power.

No government of the people, no movement of foods, no fuel, no power.  3 days and the country is living like it's 1700s again.
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If we have the same amount of nukes, and they have significantly fewer ports, refineries, etc, what do you think happens when they try that shit?
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 5:36:16 PM EDT
[#47]
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Quoted:
Big shell game.
Mx and peacekeeper rail Garrison type launchers.

Could be anywhere.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/73/Peacekeeper_Rail_Garrison_Car_-_Dayton_-_kingsley_-_12-29-08.jpg
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Including derailed.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 6:12:54 PM EDT
[#48]
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Quoted:


RECT.
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Which is why in the official acronym, we used the "And".  
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 6:21:38 PM EDT
[#49]
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Quoted:
Which is why in the official acronym, we used the "And".  
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Quoted:
Quoted:


RECT.
Which is why in the official acronym, we used the "And".  
Missileers are the penultimate killjoys.
Link Posted: 6/12/2017 6:21:45 PM EDT
[#50]
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Quoted:
No Tampa?
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I can stand on my roof and watch planes leaving  MacDill across 6 miles of Tampa Bay

They don't want to piss off Fl. man
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