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Posted: 8/16/2023 1:34:57 AM EDT
[#1]
4690! Biggest page I ever owned.
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Posted: 8/16/2023 1:39:58 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#2]
The dollar and the euro resumed growth after the “panic” increase in the Central Bank rate
The Central Bank's emergency rate hike, the second since the start of the war in Ukraine, did not lead to a strengthening of the ruble. The dollar and the euro resumed growth on the Moscow Exchange after an unscheduled meeting of the Central Bank, where the key rate was increased from 8.5% to 12% per annum. The dollar exchange rate, which fell to 95.11 rubles in the morning, rose to 98.17 rubles by 13.23 Moscow time. The euro rose to 107.36 rubles, although in the first hours of trading it fell below 104 rubles. “Raising rates won't solve anything,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, told Bloomberg. “They can only temporarily slow down the pace of devaluation at the cost of slower GDP growth.” The key problem is war and sanctions, Ash points out, and here the Central Bank has no power. Devaluation promises the economy an acceleration of inflation, which people will feel in their pockets. 40% of purchases from the average consumer are imported goods, points out Natalya Prodanova, professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Moreover, it will happen at the most unfortunate moment for the Kremlin - before the 2024 elections, in which President Vladimir Putin will be re-elected for a fifth term. “Pass-through to consumer prices will peak about six months after the exchange rate shock,” warns Alexander Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics. “And consumer confidence is likely to be at its lowest point ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.” https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/15047 The head of the Crimea promised not to take resort fees from the Russians until the end of the war The Russian-appointed Crimean authorities refused to introduce a resort fee for Russians until the end of the war with Ukraine. “Until the special military operation is completed, the issue of introducing a resort tax on the territory of the Republic of Crimea is not relevant,” said the Russian head of the peninsula Sergey Aksyonov. According to him, it is necessary to evaluate the experience of other regions of Russia, which have already introduced a fee for vacationers. “Preliminary data show not the highest performance, given the cost of administration and so on,” Aksenov said. The experiment on the introduction of the resort tax in Russia began in May 2018 and will continue until January 1, 2025. During this time, they began to collect it in Krasnodar (up to 50 rubles per day), Stavropol (100 rubles per day), Altai (50 rubles per day) and St. Petersburg (100 rubles per day). The war in Ukraine hit tourism in Crimea hard. If in 2021 the peninsula accounted for 19% of all hotel and holiday rental bookings in Russia, then in 2023 it is only 1%, Ostrovok.ru calculated. https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/15048 Putin ordered fairs to be held to slow down inflation Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed to create conditions for holding fairs in Russia, as they help bring down the prices of goods. Putin announced this on Tuesday during a meeting with the head of Ingushetia, Mahmud-Ali Kalimatov. Kalimatov, who has headed one of the poorest regions of the Russian Federation since 2019, reported to the president that over 30 fairs were held in Ingushetia last year, where goods, including food, were sold 15–20% cheaper than on the market. This made it possible to "bring down the price that dealers raised," Kalimatov said. The President supported him, follows from the transcript published on the Kremlin website. “Very true,” he said. “We just need to create conditions for people.” According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as of August 7, the growth rate of consumer prices in Russia amounted to 4.4% yoy against 2.5% in May. At the same time, seasonally adjusted monthly inflation in July reached 0.96%, the highest since April last year. In terms of the annual rate, this price increase corresponds to inflation of 12.2%, which is four times higher than the Central Bank's target (4%), follows from its own estimates. https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/15051 |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 1:51:14 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AROKIE]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 9mmstephen: Friendly years? Facts? You, making an incorrect statement does not make it a fact. Trump did exactly what he said he would and Wagner got decimated in Syria. Russia hit the pause button until Trump was gone. Trump wasn't in office in 2014. During the Trump years Russia didn't accomplish a thing. The Afghanistan nightmare is what led Russia to believe the full invasion would not be challenged; not Trump. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 9mmstephen: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Putin used the friendly years Russia had with the USA while Trump was in office, he used those years to prepare for the invasion he had already had planned. Thats a fact. But Putin would have invaded Ukraine no matter what, even if he had to wait till trump served his 8 years. No matter what we would still be facing this same invasion now or later. Friendly years? Facts? You, making an incorrect statement does not make it a fact. Trump did exactly what he said he would and Wagner got decimated in Syria. Russia hit the pause button until Trump was gone. Trump wasn't in office in 2014. During the Trump years Russia didn't accomplish a thing. The Afghanistan nightmare is what led Russia to believe the full invasion would not be challenged; not Trump. man the facts are out there, im not going to teach you history, you can have your opinion and thats cool bro. Yes the friendly years Its all irrelevant anyways, Putin still would have invaded Ukraine. There was no stopping that. So saying "this never would have happened with trump in office!" is just yelling at clouds, Trump would eventually leave office and Putin would eventually invaded Ukraine, and we would be in the same spot we are in today. so if trump would have won re-election then Putin would have had 4 more years to prepare for the invasion he had ALREADY had planned. You are failing to understand the Invasion was planned well before the whole failed Afghanistan circus. did it re-in-force Putins mind on making the right decision, Hell yes it did. But it was not the reason. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 2:08:05 AM EDT
[#4]
🕶🕶🕶 at the front as of the end of the day on August 15, 2023
▶️ Beilomoskovskiy, Siverskyi and Bilhorodskyi shades — unchanged. The enemy's attempt to break through the DKU in Chernihiv Oblast was stopped. ▶️ Svativskyi touch - fighting continues near Sinkivka and Novoselivskyi. ▶️ Bakhmut direction — no changes. LBZ is stable. So far, no one can turn the situation near Klishchiivka in their favor. ▶️ Avdiiv shade — no changes, refinements are ongoing. ▶️ Berdyansky shade - the katsaps are withdrawing reserves south of Urozhany and carrying out serious engineering work. These damn moles dig without stopping, which of course will make further progress difficult.  ▶️ Zaporizhzhya shade - heavy battles continue near Robotina and Verbove. There is no clear LBZ, because the situation is extremely dynamic. For example, there are landings that change hands. ▶️ Taurian shade - no changes. 🗂 Analytical note. The situation remains difficult. No changes were recorded in the plots, except for Robotyny. 🔍 Fighters turned to us with a request to find a circuit technician who will help perform certain tasks for the benefit of the army. Details on our volunteer channel ZSUHelp. https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17370 |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 3:10:32 AM EDT
[#5]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 3:13:30 AM EDT
[#6]
Iran gets it cash back.. Russia continues to get Iran's drones too |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 3:28:43 AM EDT
[#7]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 3:38:58 AM EDT
[#8]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 3:47:14 AM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 3:57:56 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n:
I want Russians to suffer SO BAD.. Just the expectation of pain is enough for me. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:01:11 AM EDT
[#11]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:04:24 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#12]
Video of "Sea Baby"
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:08:00 AM EDT
[#13]
This will stir the GD Pro-Russia hive
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:10:14 AM EDT
[#14]
 T-80BV Destroyed by Drone Near Klischiivka, Bakhmut |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:24:45 AM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:26:39 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: BUT before that deal happens Ukraine needs to liberate Transnistria and send it back to Moldova. Name of the operation: "Special military operation".  |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:37:19 AM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:47:55 AM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 4:59:23 AM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 5:22:02 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n:
Wow, sure enough. ETA- LOL The head of the Chinese Ministry of Defense will begin a visit to Belarus Li Shanfu will come to Minsk from Russia, where he took part in the XI Moscow Conference on International Security MINSK, August 16. /TASS/. A member of the Central Military Commission and the State Council, Chinese Defense Minister Colonel-General Li Shanfu will arrive on a three-day official visit to Belarus on Wednesday, where he will discuss topical issues of bilateral military cooperation with the country's leadership and the republic's defense department. It is also planned to visit the facilities of the Armed Forces of Belarus. Li Shanfu will come to Minsk from Russia, where the day before he took part in the XI Moscow Conference on International Security, held in the Patriot Park near Moscow. In his speech, the head of the Chinese defense department said that Beijing will continue to strengthen the mechanism of cooperation in the field of security with the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as well as with Belarus, which signed a memorandum of obligations with the SCO, which launched the procedure for its full accession to the organization. The trip of the Minister of Defense of China to Belarus will be the first visit of such a high level in the field of military cooperation over the past five years. Its goal is to strengthen and expand military and military-technical cooperation between Beijing and Minsk, for which China is one of the priorities of foreign policy. It is expected that during the meetings of representatives of the defense ministries of the two countries, areas of cooperation for the near future will be outlined, as well as an exchange of views on the current situation in the field of international and regional security. Li Shanfu met with his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin for the last time at the end of April at a meeting of the SCO Council of Defense Ministers held in New Delhi. Long-term cooperation Military cooperation between Belarus and China is carried out on the basis of an agreement between the ministries of defense of the two countries, concluded in May 2010. Before the start of the pandemic, the defense ministries organized exchanges of high-level and expert visits, training of representatives of the Armed Forces of Belarus and the People's Liberation Army of China in military educational institutions of the two countries and joint training. Also, Belarusian and Chinese servicemen participated in competitions within the framework of the International Army Games. With the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic, bilateral military cooperation activities were suspended. In mid-April of this year, at a meeting in Minsk between representatives of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus and the defense attaché at the Chinese Embassy, Senior Colonel Liu Zhe, the parties discussed the intensification of bilateral military cooperation after the end of the pandemic. At a solemn event held in Minsk at the end of July on the occasion of the 96th anniversary of the creation of the People's Liberation Army of China, Khrenin stressed that "cooperation with China in general, as well as its military component in particular, is the most important priority of the foreign policy" of Belarus. According to the Minister of Defense, "historically established relations of friendship between the states" are a reliable foundation for the development of Belarusian-Chinese cooperation. Speaking at the event, Attaché Liu Zhe expressed confidence that in the future, exchanges and practical cooperation between the armed forces of China and Belarus will bring even more results and make a great contribution to strengthening global and regional stability. From February 28 to March 2, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko visited China, during which he and Chinese President Xi Jinping adopted a joint statement on the further development of comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries in a new era. In it, in particular, the parties agreed to "strengthen cooperation in the defense, law enforcement and security spheres, deepen cooperation, including in the field of training military personnel, joint fight against transnational crime and terrorism, and conduct a joint preventive fight against color revolutions." Belarus and China will also jointly support the international system, the core of which is the UN. At the same time, Minsk and Beijing resolutely oppose "any manifestations of hegemony and the policy of brute force, including illegitimate unilateral sanctions and coercive measures," and intend to provide mutual support "in mitigating the negative consequences of the use of illegal unilateral coercive measures." https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/18518173 China is ready to strengthen work in the field of security within the SCO The head of the Ministry of Defense of China announced his readiness to strengthen security work in the SCO MOSCOW, August 15 - RIA Novosti. China is ready to strengthen security work within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and actively deepen defense cooperation with Iran and Belarus, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shanfu said on Tuesday. "China is ready, as before, to strengthen work in the field of security within the framework of the SCO, to actively deepen cooperation in the field of defense with the new SCO country - Iran and Belarus joining the organization," Li Shanfu said, speaking at the Moscow Security Conference. "The Chinese side is ready to conduct joint exercises and drills with all countries to find a wider exercise space, and strengthen international cooperation on arms control and non-proliferation," he said. https://ria.ru/20230815/kitay-1890153259.html Russian Satellite News Agency 23-8-15 04:17 From Weibo Web Edited [Chinese Defense Minister: Sino-Russian military relations are not aimed at third countries] #Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu# On August 8, at the 15th Moscow International Security Conference, it was said that China's military relations with Russia are not aimed at third countries. https://weibo.com/2181597154/NeHpNbhcz?refer_flag=1001030103_ |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 5:35:24 AM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 6:33:26 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: That's why I say give up Crimea and Russia loses Donetsk and Luhansk. The defensive line in northern Crimea is going to be a tough nut to crack. It's a win for Ukraine and a major loss for Russia. BUT before that deal happens Ukraine needs to liberate Transnistria and send it back to Moldova. That would be the ultimate defeat for Russia. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By Birddog15: Giving up land for entrance into NATO is a pragmatic idea. We may not like it, but if Ukraine eventually chooses that path, I'd understand. For those who say that this will just delay Russia's next attack; Russia has shown no inclination to go to war with NATO. If they do decide to attack NATO down the road at some point, then all of this worry over Ukraine and its territory will be a moot point. The world will have much bigger worries. Whether Russia loses to Ukraine next year and goes back home with no Ukrainian territory, or goes home with a little Ukrainian territory, really doesn't make much difference in the long run, as far as long term security goes for Ukraine. Either way, Ukraine is ending up in NATO and Russia will be very unlikely to attack it again. Obviously, we all hope that Ukraine keeps every square inch of its territory and that every Russian that set foot in Ukraine ends up as dirt. But Ukraine is the one with more and more families visiting grave sites every day, so how this ends is their decision alone to make. That's why I say give up Crimea and Russia loses Donetsk and Luhansk. The defensive line in northern Crimea is going to be a tough nut to crack. It's a win for Ukraine and a major loss for Russia. BUT before that deal happens Ukraine needs to liberate Transnistria and send it back to Moldova. That would be the ultimate defeat for Russia. That would be sweet, but we need to be careful how many sticks we poke the bear with. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 6:39:30 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By grambosc: Same here. Though when they're communist bullies it adds an extra dimension to the hate. Agreed. And that humor remains a powerful weapon. None of the Marxist crowd can tolerate being ridiculed. They demand respect and fear, but deserve only contempt, derision, and tungsten rain. Plus I know him outside of here and he's a pretty cool dude. |
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GA, USA
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Posted: 8/16/2023 6:58:55 AM EDT
[#24]
It is nice to see Ukraine absolutely hammering the Russian's artillery so hard the last few months. They figured out that the key to advancing is hobbling the Russians ability to support their positions with artillery. The Russians have always been artillery heavy, and it plays a huge role in how they do things both on offense and defense.
Ivan McKatsap: Artillery, fire mission grid XXXXXX Ivan McKatsap: Arillery, hello? Ivan McKatsap: Hello? |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 7:19:48 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Name of the operation: "Special military operation". Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Name of the operation: "Special military operation".  Originally Posted By Birddog15: That would be sweet, but we need to be careful how many sticks we poke the bear with. Don't poke the bear with a stick, hit it with a 12g slug. |
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NE, USA
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Posted: 8/16/2023 7:49:26 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: That's why I say give up Crimea and Russia loses Donetsk and Luhansk. The defensive line in northern Crimea is going to be a tough nut to crack. It's a win for Ukraine and a major loss for Russia. BUT before that deal happens Ukraine needs to liberate Transnistria and send it back to Moldova. That would be the ultimate defeat for Russia. If Ukraine is successful in gaining all the territory North of Crimea, they can effectively lay in a medieval style siege of Crimea. Keep taking out the Kerch bridge, and hit any ships trying to supply the peninsula. Sit back and watch them wither. |
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NE, USA
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Posted: 8/16/2023 7:58:53 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MarkNH: Putin was badly advised, the competence and readiness of their military was faked to hide massive corruption, and they expected Zelenskyy to take the helicopter ride to safety if their assassins failed in their decapitation mission. I recall Putin sitting on one side of a room, and questioning all the members of his security council on whether they agreed that an invasion of Ukraine was justified. All but one immediately and enthusiastically endorsed the idea. One lone sole tried to dissent, trying to explain that the current Ukraine had much more military capability than 10 years ago. Putin kept shaming him until he reluctantly agreed that he was on board. When you surround yourself with people that tell you what you want to hear, this is what happens. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 8:29:39 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kpacman: If Ukraine is successful in gaining all the territory North of Crimea, they can effectively lay in a medieval style siege of Crimea. Keep taking out the Kerch bridge, and hit any ships trying to supply the peninsula. Sit back and watch them wither. I agree, but if the lines move to that-and I believe they will-it is already a massive defeat for Russia. My hope is that once the first line is penetrated Russia flees back to that line and Ukraine can shift most of those forces to taking Luhansk and Donetsk. The blood tax to make it there is not going to be light. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 8:31:35 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kpacman: I recall Putin sitting on one side of a room, and questioning all the members of his security council on whether they agreed that an invasion of Ukraine was justified. All but one immediately and enthusiastically endorsed the idea. One lone sole tried to dissent, trying to explain that the current Ukraine had much more military capability than 10 years ago. Putin kept shaming him until he reluctantly agreed that he was on board. When you surround yourself with people that tell you what you want to hear, this is what happens. That guy was terrified and almost crying. But he said his piece in spite of putin looking like he was going to kill him. |
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USA
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Posted: 8/16/2023 8:41:06 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: U.S. in Talks to Develop Ukraine's Grain Export Routes The US is apparently exploring a grain deal without Russia. If we get to the point that NATO is actually escorting and protecting ships in the Black Sea and Russia does nothing about it (that's the most likely outcome IMO), that's going to embolden NATO considerably. A criticism that's often thrown forward of the argument that Ukraine should cede territory and join NATO has been that NATO members won't actually nut up and take that risk. However, pointless destabilizing choices on the part of Russia such as fucking with the grain deal piss off NATO members, increases their willingness to get involved and fix things, and gets them used to doing things without Russia's permission. That's not exactly the precedent Russia wants to be creating and normalizing. They had a good thing going with the grain deal, and it was a mistake for them to end it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: U.S. in Talks to Develop Ukraine's Grain Export Routes Western planning for alternatives to the Black Sea Grain Initiative shows how the U.S., Ukraine and European countries are preparing for a scenario in which Russia doesn’t rejoin the deal in time to move Ukraine’s summer and fall harvests. ... The U.S. is considering all potential options, including military solutions, to protect ships headed to and from Ukraine’s Danube ports, the Washington official said, but declined to give specifics on those options or say what countries would be involved in them. The US is apparently exploring a grain deal without Russia. If we get to the point that NATO is actually escorting and protecting ships in the Black Sea and Russia does nothing about it (that's the most likely outcome IMO), that's going to embolden NATO considerably. A criticism that's often thrown forward of the argument that Ukraine should cede territory and join NATO has been that NATO members won't actually nut up and take that risk. However, pointless destabilizing choices on the part of Russia such as fucking with the grain deal piss off NATO members, increases their willingness to get involved and fix things, and gets them used to doing things without Russia's permission. That's not exactly the precedent Russia wants to be creating and normalizing. They had a good thing going with the grain deal, and it was a mistake for them to end it. These are good points, but do not underestimate how desperate some Europeans are to avoid “escalation.” Granted, Russia pulling out of the world-humanitarian grain deal WAS the escalation; armed escorts for grain ships is merely a proportionate response. But ultra-pacifists - especially in Germany - are honestly terrified this could set off a nuclear apocalypse / start WW3. My estimate is the calls for a negotiated land-for-peace deal are coming from Germany, France, the Benelux, Spain, and Ireland, while the EU countries liberated from the USSR (and Denmark / Finland) are in favor of finishing the job and liberating all of Ukraine. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 8:41:55 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By grambosc: I, for one, think seeing some of your native language spelling is actually pretty cool. 'Gorbatsjov' in particular is an interesting transliteration of a name that started in a another language, and yet I got to see it after Dutch phonetics were applied. You'll get no complaints from me about that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By grambosc: Originally Posted By iggy1337: Shitty spelling? Yeah I'm stuck in Dutch correction here. I, for one, think seeing some of your native language spelling is actually pretty cool. 'Gorbatsjov' in particular is an interesting transliteration of a name that started in a another language, and yet I got to see it after Dutch phonetics were applied. You'll get no complaints from me about that. +1, same here, I appreciate his views as well. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 8:46:37 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: I don't think Russia will be too much of a threat after the number of young men they've already lost. The war is going to drive down the birth rate in Russia even more. That's not to mention that Russia is going to start feeling the economic pain in the long run. They've been putting on a brave face longer than I expected, but all these major players pulling out of Russia has to be devastating in the long run (unless the Russian population is just going to willingly go back to Soviet-era living standards). The final straw is that Russia's ability to project power outside of their immediate neighborhood has all but evaporated. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: I'm hoping that when that happens, Ukraine will be in a more favorable position. In the long run, Russia isn't going to like being denied access to much of the world's economy. They're doing alright at the moment, but the cracks are starting to show. Their Soviet stocks are in the process of getting heavily depleted, and they don't have the manufacturing capability to sustain their current use of force and replace their current loss rates. Simultaneously, there does appear to be a reinvigoration of defense in Europe. The EU has taken steps towards upping shell production, Poland is going to have the capability to domestically produce a lot of IFVs, tanks, and artillery pieces in the coming years, etc. I hope that this is enough to sustain Ukraine on its own in the future. A more cynical outlook is that in the absence of US support, the EU will force an unfavorable ceasefire on Ukraine, China will help Russia remilitarize, Ukraine won't be able to sufficiently recover from the war, and Russia will make another attempt at destroying the Ukrainian state in a few years. I don't think Russia will be too much of a threat after the number of young men they've already lost. The war is going to drive down the birth rate in Russia even more. That's not to mention that Russia is going to start feeling the economic pain in the long run. They've been putting on a brave face longer than I expected, but all these major players pulling out of Russia has to be devastating in the long run (unless the Russian population is just going to willingly go back to Soviet-era living standards). The final straw is that Russia's ability to project power outside of their immediate neighborhood has all but evaporated. Queue the revolutions... |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 8:48:28 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: The SBU used a new experimental Sea Baby sea drone to attack the Crimean Bridge in July 2023, CNN.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3oIkiYW0AAovuD?format=jpg&name=small
Man, there is no reason the Ukrainians couldn't strap on a Harpoon missile in a container on that and hunt Russian warships. Then drive in and finish the job.
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Posted: 8/16/2023 8:54:32 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: That guy was terrified and almost crying. But he said his piece in spite of putin looking like he was going to kill him.  'Speak directly!': Putin has tense exchange with his chief spy |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:01:07 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Man, there is no reason the Ukrainians couldn't strap on a Harpoon missile in a container on that and hunt Russian warships. Then drive in and finish the job. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Prime: The SBU used a new experimental Sea Baby sea drone to attack the Crimean Bridge in July 2023, CNN.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3oIkiYW0AAovuD?format=jpg&name=small
Man, there is no reason the Ukrainians couldn't strap on a Harpoon missile in a container on that and hunt Russian warships. Then drive in and finish the job. It’s a great idea, but anything taller than those water drones can be picked up by surface radar and harpoons are large missles. I’m not sure they could make a craft to hold one and stay stealthy |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:07:15 AM EDT
[#36]
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:09:38 AM EDT
[#37]
Info starts at 1:28:
 New Satellite Images of the Crimean Bridge Show Russia Building a Third Section to Help with Repairs |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:10:07 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Video source is "Two Majors", Russian TG.
They need some small patrol boats with loads of machine guns and cannon and have them moved further out in and up the harbor closer to the docks so they can engage the drones over a wider area. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:12:19 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: man the facts are out there, im not going to teach you history, you can have your opinion and thats cool bro. Yes the friendly years Its all irrelevant anyways, Putin still would have invaded Ukraine. There was no stopping that. So saying "this never would have happened with trump in office!" is just yelling at clouds, Trump would eventually leave office and Putin would eventually invaded Ukraine, and we would be in the same spot we are in today. so if trump would have won re-election then Putin would have had 4 more years to prepare for the invasion he had ALREADY had planned. You are failing to understand the Invasion was planned well before the whole failed Afghanistan circus. did it re-in-force Putins mind on making the right decision, Hell yes it did. But it was not the reason. Fundamentally you seem to agree that when there is a strong decisive POTUS, assholes like Putin, Kim, etc. dont act out. But when there is weak, corrupt, sympathetic POTUS, the assholes DO make their long anticipated move. We can all swing purses about whether Trump was strong or weak but Putin, Kim, Xi, etc obviously thought he was strong since they STFU and waited (and possibly had a hand in the 2020 election). What could Ukraine have done with another 4 years to prepare? With Trump being the first to give Ukraine lethal aid, could it be conceived that he would give Zelensky additional aid, maybe decisive aid like F16's. It wasnt Russia that was lacking in arms due to embargoes, it was Ukraine. Russia thought they had all the shit they needed, World's 2nd Army (in Russia) so it is most likely they would have continued to do what they have been doing for those 4 years while Ukraine ramped up. Also, had Trump continued along for the 2nd term, most likely we would have MAGA, even the idiots in GD would have seen and felt the benefits and subsequently elected another R POTUS. Probably Pence who is very Pro Ukraine. So another 4 or 8 years for Putin to stew in his cancer. Trump would have saved Ukraine. Although only Russia could have forged the solid steel Ukraine we have now so there is that. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:15:45 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By m35ben: This was very good and worth the listen. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By m35ben:  Are you okay, Ben? Quoting your own posts?
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:16:27 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: I realize alot of people keep repeating that, but its just not accurate. Putin had this invasion planned well before 2014, taking Crimea was the first step. They have even stated that it was planned before then. Nothing, not even trump could have stopped Putin from crossing the border. Putin is not scared of trump. He actually sees him as an asset. Trump prized his tough guy image so much, i think he would have drawn a harder line than "Want a ride?" Biden.... and i think Putin knows that... Also, i think it's become clear that if anyone was compromised by the Russians, it's the Bidens... so they perhaps expected the "want a ride?" response which is what happened. Nobody foresaw a former comedian transforming into the leader of the most tenacious fight for survival in our time. I do think it FAR less likely that Putin invades if Trump is in the Oval Office... if for no other reason than he knows a corrupt US politician will win again some day and then he can move forward with his plan. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:17:52 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n:
Yeah, it has actually accelerated the idea of just arming certain countries under threat so that a war might be prevented. If one starts, then at least you have a better chance of fending off the attacker. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:21:15 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Not sure I track that, but ok. Reality was/is that the Russian military was pretty much fucked during the 90's and the 00's. And well as we can see today it pretty much still is. Me either. iirc one of Putin's ex-advisers was being interviewed and he stated that Putin's eyes lit up when the US invaded Iraq in '03 and said something like "if they can do it, we can do it". I certainly think Putin anted to invaded Ukraine regardless of what the US did or did not do in Iraq but like me seeing my neighbor buy a boat...it kinda opens the door to the imagination...Putin invaded Ukraine because he was confident that he could do it and the international reaction would be weak. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:22:06 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: The SBU used a new experimental Sea Baby sea drone to attack the Crimean Bridge in July 2023, CNN.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3oIkiYW0AAovuD?format=jpg&name=small
Russia sends out missile subs to launch cruise missiles from the Black Sea. Is there any way the little sea drones could be modified to an ASW role? Carry a handful of active sonar mini drones transmitting to the ASW attack drone, ID a sub location, then launch depth charges or a mini torpedo? |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:24:55 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Honestly the entire point of the invasion IMO was to secure a land bridge TO Crimea. Sure, they would have tried to grab the whole thing if they could with a decap strike. But I think Plan B was always to gobble up as much of the east as possible and hold it. The logical border there would have been the river, but they never made that far in most places. I do think the plan "A" was to take all of Ukraine. Attack all along the East to draw in and hold the UA while the main attack was towards Kiev. Decap of Z if possible, while taking the capital and forcing the UA to surrender. Similar to how Hitler took France. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:26:05 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By METT-T: Julia Ioffe is a very smart and pretty lady and struck me as having some pretty solid takes on Putin's view of U.S. leaders and politics. She said that Putin viewed Trump foremost as someone he could easily manipulate. I think that's pretty obvious. Being easily manipulated doesn't make someone an "asset" per se, but it does make them useful for shaping things to come. Trump was corrosive for NATO, rightly banging on the funding issue and pointing out Germany's dependence on Russian gas, but not smart enough to see the long-term value of NATO or make his criticisms in a way that improved the alliance. He was corrosive for Ukraine, too, making Zelensky unsure of his reliability as a partner. The flip side is that Trump was easily manipulated by others, and the Republican national security apparatus was not a pushover. How many times did Trump say he was going to withdraw from Syria to have Mattis or Bolton or Tillerson or whomever talk him out of it? That made him unpredictable, but helpful in the larger project of changing the status quo, dissolving the trans-Atlantic bond, turning America inward, turning us all into nihilists. I think Putin saw Biden as old and dumb, which he is. But I think he also bought at least some of the stuff about him being a puppet, shitting his pants, whatever. And he rightly saw Biden's party as being this navel-gazing identity-obsessed clown show, soft as puppy shit. But I don't think he quite grasped that there were serious people in the Democratic national security establishment, Blinken and Austin and Sullivan and the like. I think if there was a decision point it wasn't about which shitbag American politician was sitting in the White House but January 6th. The Russians had to have read that as a profound, potentially fatal moment in American democracy that would leave us paralyzed. But what they DIDN'T get was that no Republicans whose opinions actually mattered, i.e. members of Congress, folks in the executive branch (derp state), the judiciary, military, media, think tanks, governors, etc., really believed any of the stolen election/Trump-the-victim bullshit or intended to use it as cover to seize power. From the top of the American political right down to the statehouses it was theater, and nobody but the Q Anon Shaman and those other poor suckers were going to do anything different. So we were in a much higher state of national political readiness than he anticipated. Now he's faced with a Democratic Party that's likely more martial than he expected and pretty solidly pro-Ukraine and a fractured and nationally impotent Republican party where almost all the grownups are also behind Ukraine. So we're all fucked here on the train to tranny-town but things came out OK for the Ukrainians, anyway. This video is from PBS, but it's very good and contains some real history. It was posted a couple thousand pages ago or so, but it's worth a watch for anybody who missed it the first time.  Putin and the Presidents (full documentary) | FRONTLINE |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:27:24 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: The caveat I think is accuracy of the shot, much like a shotgun #4 buck vs slug at 50yd. The slug has much higher lethality, but the #4 due to it spread has a much higher hit probability, especially in a quickly aimed or moving target scenario where the slug might miss entirely. Likewise, an accurate HE Airburst going off over overhead is definitely more lethal - assuming the the shot is accurate. But it also has a good chance of missing entirely. Whereas the huge spread of DPICM gives a higher chance of a submunition landing near a group / individual soldier. Good shotgun analogy. I still think its better to wound 10 enemy soldiers than to obliterate 2 with HE. Anyway, this is arfcom so always get both. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:30:48 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: It’s a great idea, but anything taller than those water drones can be picked up by surface radar and harpoons are large missles. I’m not sure they could make a craft to hold one and stay stealthy Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Prime: The SBU used a new experimental Sea Baby sea drone to attack the Crimean Bridge in July 2023, CNN.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3oIkiYW0AAovuD?format=jpg&name=small
Man, there is no reason the Ukrainians couldn't strap on a Harpoon missile in a container on that and hunt Russian warships. Then drive in and finish the job. It’s a great idea, but anything taller than those water drones can be picked up by surface radar and harpoons are large missles. I’m not sure they could make a craft to hold one and stay stealthy Those sea drones can be picked up by radar and thermal, range to detect them would depend on the sea state. They aren't as stealthy as they could be, but that would make them much more expensive to produce, and it's amazing they are able to get close to the Russian ships and bridge as is. The advantage of a sea container with a Harpoon is you only need to get about 120 nautical miles from the enemy ship. The Harpoon can do the rest. If the enemy ship is hit, then great! I think for the most part a single Harpoon would obliterate any of the Russian ships left in the Black Sea. I don't believe they have the capability to shoot down a sea skimming missile fired at night through a rain squall to minimize it's thermal signature for example. Nor could their ships guns handle a Harpoon that decides to suddenly climb and do a terminal dive onto the ship. Also, the drone ships could be modified to ride lower in the water with the Harpoon container on top.  They can skim the water closer than 15 meters lol.   |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:37:46 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9mmstephen]
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: man the facts are out there, im not going to teach you history, you can have your opinion and thats cool bro. Yes the friendly years Its all irrelevant anyways, Putin still would have invaded Ukraine. There was no stopping that. So saying "this never would have happened with trump in office!" is just yelling at clouds, Trump would eventually leave office and Putin would eventually invaded Ukraine, and we would be in the same spot we are in today. so if trump would have won re-election then Putin would have had 4 more years to prepare for the invasion he had ALREADY had planned. You are failing to understand the Invasion was planned well before the whole failed Afghanistan circus. did it re-in-force Putins mind on making the right decision, Hell yes it did. But it was not the reason. Using a Politico Opinion article as facts, says it all. |
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Posted: 8/16/2023 9:40:31 AM EDT
[#50]
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