Originally Posted By TopBillin:
One of the saddest videos I've see so far.  Russians are clearing a Ukrainian trench.  One Ukrainian gets cut off in a branch and fights on.  At 2:22 the lead Russian is gunned down by a retreating Ukrainian leaving the lone ukro soldier cut off.  Russians commence to throw hand grenades at him, 2 of which he manages to throw back at them (3:16 the first one), but is finally wounded and unable to fight on.  

EDIT: Never mind, already posted above.  I'll leave the link up as it is Youtube.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0es7_yDm7PI

Originally Posted By AROKIE:


There will come a time that the Influx of advanced weapons will cease from European countries if russia takes those regions and declares an end to there special operation. Of course Ukraine will still try and take them back but with alot less backing and equipment.

Originally Posted By kilroymcb:
I haven't seen any evidence that the Ukrainians are "throwing everything they have". They have hundreds of thousands of men in training and several brigades on the border with Belarus and Transnistria. If anything, it appears they are using economy of force and trying to hold on with "just enough" for as long as possible. The reason you would do this is so that you can use the combat power elsewhere or at a later time. Hence, the offensive that forced the Russians away from Kharkiv just a few days ago.

Russians have numerical superiority in local sectors of the battlefields in the east. They do NOT have numerical superiority in Ukraine as a whole. But with Zelensky's goal of 1 million troops even local superiority isn't going to last.

Even so, they are drawing ancient relics out of storage for combat. T-62's? What's next T-55's?  Why do you think they would be doing that if they have thousands of T-72's in storage? They've suffered heavy losses of their best tank forces. There were never as many late model, upgraded tanks as people were led to believe. They were being pilfered in storage, sold off, cannibalized to keep the parades going. The T-62's and 64's were their deep reserves and ultimately destined to be sold off to client states as monkey models - the Syrias, African republics, Venezuela, whoever. And how about the Russian AeroSpace Force? Flying around with handheld GPS to strike targets with coordinates from hand penciled notes.

You are witnessing a slow motion apocalypse. And your normalcy bias (or just perhaps your desire to spite the people you hate, your cultural enemies, the managerial class) is perhaps, leading you astray.

As far as Smug Satisfaction goes, I have a little thrill in my heart at the sight of every popped top of a Russian tank or crispy comrade stuck in a death rictus hanging halfway out of a BMP. I consider that Javelin money well spent.  They started a war of aggression for the purpose of territorial conquest. The intention was absolutely to destroy Ukraine and reduce its people to a state of terrified servitude Instead, Russia is bleeding itself out day by day. They are extending the process by utilizing their poor meat puppets in the DPR and LPR, press-ganged off the streets so they can keep their own casualties low. But you've got refusers  whole units refusing to fight now. Eventually there won't be enough Chechens to murder and bully them into submission. And then the Chechens will have to do something beyond making Tik Tok videos.

Russia is a semi-peripheral country. A 2nd world country, at its base. They are down to using scavenged household appliances to furnish components for missiles. Because they are incapable of providing their own. They will run out of the good stuff. It's just a matter of time. And then their casualties grow even faster.

At the same time, slowly and shittily, the west is re-equipping Ukraine with NATO gear. This is a clue for the future. It is going to be big business feeding 155mm artillery shells, 5.56 NATO, 81mm and 60mm mortars, SINCGARS, Harris radios This is the new frontier the military industrial complex. Every NATO arms consortium is going to be showcasing its weapons against poor DPR bastards east of the Dneiper. And yeah, some of it will be stolen. But so what?

This is already very clearly, not Afghanistan. The Ukrainians are really in this to fight. Not to just make money as long as they can then trample each other climbing into the ass end of a C17 to the land of the big PX.  A great deal of that equipment is going to be used as intended. Unlike Afghanistan, NATO can't just abandon them and pretend they don't exist. They aren't some land locked country on the literal opposite side of the world. Ukraine directly borders two NATO countries, which from a treaty perspective, is the same as bordering Maine.

So, yeah. Things will be dicey and go back and forth. But, I see time as favoring the Ukrainians. Not Russia.

Originally Posted By 1stID:


None of that sanctions stuff above is true.  Cube has propped up Venezuela's military for years.  They don't send forces to fight in Angola or such anymore, as there's no Cold War.  But US sanctions did nothing to modify Cuba's behavior.  Syria went through a nasty civil war, won by the side the west sanctioned - to no avail.  NK is still launching missiles, working on nukes, and being a pain to all, so sanctions have done nothing to them either.  

Iraq was on supposedly strict sanctions from Gulf War 1 to Gulf War 2, yet it did nothing to change what they were doing.  People place far too much trust in sanctions and what they can do - that's the real bad decision, from ignoring the past.  

Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


The real nightmare is if Russia controls territory enough that they are able to officially annex it and declare it Part of Russia. At which point they will frame any attempt at counter attack / liberations as an Invasion of Russia...

They have made previous mention that they would consider any attempt at retaking Crimea as an Invasion of Russia which could (actually) see the deployment of nuclear weapons, as opposed to the normal saber rattling.

Thats the real risk of an Armstice / cease fire / allowing Russia to control territory.

Originally Posted By M-1975:
Javelin porn:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQWg0_BbSl4

Originally Posted By USMCTanker:


DARPA or Redstone Arsenal?

DARPA’s work is largely in the realm of technology that is decades away from fielding; really advanced concepts that seem like science fiction at present.  They get roped into some near-term projects like AI, but that’s the exception.

Originally Posted By AROKIE:


There will come a time that the Influx of advanced weapons will cease from European countries if russia takes those regions and declares an end to there special operation. Of course Ukraine will still try and take them back but with alot less backing and equipment.

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Arfcom artillery guys, does this M777 have the equipment to fire guided rounds?

https://preview.redd.it/c862nml3pt191.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=82f167a5a283b764658ded1eaf325825107f105c

Originally Posted By 1stID:



None that I've seen, even from pro-Ruskie Telegraph posters.

The Kiev front was one of 3 things:

1. A terrible miscalculation by Russia on how easy it was going to be to invade and take over Ukraine, compounded by bad equipment and tactics.

2. A feint, done merely to tie up Ukrainian forces who would be focused on protecting the capitol at all costs, while the other Russian forces moved into the east and south.

3. A gamble of a "Thunder Run", where a relatively small and not well supplied attack force makes a move on a capitol city, hoping the enemy will just fold up and run away (as happened in Baghdad in 2003), leaving the city to surrender.

Or maybe 3, with the benefit of causing 2.  I don't think anyone except the Russians know at this point, and please don't post some Smug Satisfaction! photo of a burned out Russian tank to try to prove it was scenario 1.  If amateurs talk strategy while professionals talk logistics, then novices post random pictures of destroyed equipment and try to say who's winning based on that.  

And it could be a mixture of all three - thinking the Thunder Run was going to be all that was needed, and then not even doing a very good job supporting a slimmed down attack force, while consoling themselves on it tying up forces elsewhere.  Note in the Winter War with Finland, it was unclear if Russia ever really wanted to try to take Helsinki and was stopped, or if they had no plans to go that far.  

In any case, it's unlikely that Russia will try another move on Kiev.  Odessa would be a more achievable target at this point, and one that Russia could feel they could take without upping the stakes with NATO, as with as much political investment as NATO countries have put into Ukraine, they can't allow Kiev to be taken over at this point.  Odessa would be more in line with the long game that Putin has shown elsewhere, such as in Syria, where Russia slowly and gradually helped Assad destroy his enemies.  

Taking Odessa would cut off Ukraine from the sea, leaving it to rely on antiquated rail and road systems from what I've read, for trade.  It would cripple the countries economy, leaving it a vassal, beggar state relying on NATO and the EU (which might not be a bad thing in the eyes of Ukraine's ruling elite - more foreign money to steal).  

But Russia has made no serious move on Odessa yet.  They seem to be concentrating their forces in the east, and will probably grind Ukraine down there.  If Ukraine is sufficiently weakened from a loss in the east, then maybe Russia make a move on Odessa.  We shall see how things progress in the next month.

Originally Posted By kilroymcb:
...

Russia is a semi-peripheral country. A 2nd world country, at its base. They are down to using scavenged household appliances to furnish components for missiles. Because they are incapable of providing their own. They will run out of the good stuff. It's just a matter of time. And then their casualties grow even faster.

...

Originally Posted By oswald01:


Excellent analysis. As well, the long game needs to be factored in. Putin is hoping through the process of de-natzification after hostlities end, whatever is left of Ukraine will seek to become a free standing nation, neutral (not a NATO member) with a minimal military that does not threaten Russia and seeks economic growth.

As Putin himself pointed out, Ukraine's living standard as part of the USSR was something like 3 times than that under the Western imposed oligarchs which only got worse after the 2014 coup. The huge impact of the 2014 coup was to bring the Nazis to the forefront both in political power and military power. At the start of the Russian SMO, about one half of Ukraine's military strength, 100,000 men, were in Nazi units who did not report to the Ukraine Military high command. These Nazi units were deployed in the East bordering the Donbas.

A primary Russian goal was to destroy the Ukraine Nazi units facing the Donbas with Mariupol being their headquarters. The primary military goal of the feint aspect of the initial movement toward Kiev was to draw away or at least minimize support for the Nazi units in the East and South. The political goal was to make an effort to present support for the regular Ukraine military to stage a coup. In addition, Putin could use this domestically to garner support. The Russian people see Ukrainians more as cousins so to speak rather than foreign enemies. That is, too heavy a hand initially would have played to foreign propaganda. Nevertheless, throughout the SMO Russia has sought to minimize civilian casualties not least because so far in the territory of the SMO the bulk of civilians are pro-Russian as opposed to the pro-West Kiev regime.

Finally, Putin can always point to this feint on Kiev as proof that the initial approach of the SMO was for it to be carried out with as little blood as possible. In the years ahead this could pay great dividends. The Russians are no "pikers" when it comes to expanding their empire.

Originally Posted By oswald01:


Excellent analysis. As well, the long game needs to be factored in. Putin is hoping through the process of de-natzification after hostlities end, whatever is left of Ukraine will seek to become a free standing nation, neutral (not a NATO member) with a minimal military that does not threaten Russia and seeks economic growth.

As Putin himself pointed out, Ukraine's living standard as part of the USSR was something like 3 times than that under the Western imposed oligarchs which only got worse after the 2014 coup. The huge impact of the 2014 coup was to bring the Nazis to the forefront both in political power and military power. At the start of the Russian SMO, about one half of Ukraine's military strength, 100,000 men, were in Nazi units who did not report to the Ukraine Military high command. These Nazi units were deployed in the East bordering the Donbas.

A primary Russian goal was to destroy the Ukraine Nazi units facing the Donbas with Mariupol being their headquarters. The primary military goal of the feint aspect of the initial movement toward Kiev was to draw away or at least minimize support for the Nazi units in the East and South. The political goal was to make an effort to present support for the regular Ukraine military to stage a coup. In addition, Putin could use this domestically to garner support. The Russian people see Ukrainians more as cousins so to speak rather than foreign enemies. That is, too heavy a hand initially would have played to foreign propaganda. Nevertheless, throughout the SMO Russia has sought to minimize civilian casualties not least because so far in the territory of the SMO the bulk of civilians are pro-Russian as opposed to the pro-West Kiev regime.

Finally, Putin can always point to this feint on Kiev as proof that the initial approach of the SMO was for it to be carried out with as little blood as possible. In the years ahead this could pay great dividends. The Russians are no "pikers" when it comes to expanding their empire.