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Posted: 8/12/2022 5:50:08 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Yes we are and in 10-20 years Europe may look like a very different place. Though this war is far from over, I believe Ukraine will come out whole or nearly so. France and Germany will come out of it physically undamaged, but with significant political damage. They put themselves and Europe in a dangerous position through naked greed - not the actions of responsible adults and leaders of the EU. Poland and the Baltics, on the other hand, saw the same information and made appropriate decisions in time to build LNG terminals for themselves from about 2010-2015. That wasn't a coincidence. You can also argue that Poland is making an extremely foresighted choice with Ukraine which goes beyond “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Ukraine is going to come out of this war as a force to be reckoned with. Ukraine and Poland together will be the premiere military power in Europe. Ukraine also has the resources, energy, and nuclear power which will lead directly to a joint Ukraine-Poland nuclear weapons program, which is absolutely necessary for both of their long-term survivals. The Baltics, though they can’t compete with Poland in terms of contribution, no doubt hope come under the Poland/Ukraine umbrella based on their loyal support. Ukraine will remember who its good friends were, and also those who weren’t such good friends. Poland and the Baltics are getting on the right side of that equation. Depending on the breaks, I don’t think it’s impossible for Russia to break up with Ukraine eventually getting a major chunk of it, and/or for Kyiv to become the new center of the slavic world for the first time in several hundred years. So yeah, IMO Poland has some adult professionals running the country who not only know how to do the right thing, but how to maximize their benefit from it. Good analysis. I would point out it’s not historically unprecedented, that power alignment. That gives it staying power. Both for emotional and BoP considerations, Britain has a long investment in Poland, going back centuries, not just to 1939. Problem has always been translating that into action in the age of sale and is a great power without a great continental army. Time in technology have also factored into this development. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 5:51:16 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ-VG1wXEAAzdkB?format=jpg&name=large Glad he’s around, but he needs to stay off Twitter. He would be a really cool guy if he acted like a really cool guy. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 5:52:07 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74HC: Their entire submarine fleet appears to be russian. They do have or had one Akula though. I don't think they know how to operate those properly and are most like fish food. The Curried Coffin. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 5:58:29 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/CF72D1BF-DB00-4D28-AF45-9D3B99818358_jpe-2486676.JPG 
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Posted: 8/12/2022 5:58:51 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: I observed some time ago that once a nation can watch Breaking Bad in its original language they are never quite the same again. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By sq40: https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/08/12/7363007/ The Ministry of Culture is preparing a draft law on the status of English: it will be mandatory in certain areas. The Ministry of Culture and Information Policy is working on a draft law on establishing the special status of English in Ukraine as the language of international communication. Source : First Deputy Minister of Culture and Information Policy Rostyslav Karandeev during a briefing at the Media Center Ukraine - Ukrinform, the ministry's website reports Details : The draft law provides for: establishment of a special status of the English language in Ukraine as a language of international communication; significant expansion of the scope of the English language in Ukraine; the English language will be mandatory in certain public spheres of social life where international communications are available. An interdepartmental working group on the preparation of legislative acts to ensure the functioning of the English language as a language of international communication is being created at the initiative of the ICIP. It will include people's deputies, representatives of state bodies and the public. Currently, the ICIP is summarizing the proposals received from state bodies and the public and preparing a draft order on the creation of such an interagency working group. Taking into account the results of the interdepartmental working group, a draft law on ensuring the functioning of the English language as the language of international communication will be prepared, its public discussion will be held and it will be prepared for submission to the government. Karandeev emphasized that Ukraine currently ranks only 40th out of 112 countries in the world in terms of English proficiency. Direct language : "The transformation of the status of the English language should solve this problem. This is Ukraine's strategic course towards EU membership. The draft law provides for the regulation of the use of the English language in certain public spheres of social life. First of all, it concerns international communications." I observed some time ago that once a nation can watch Breaking Bad in its original language they are never quite the same again. I heard the move was prompted by Stranger Things, Season 4. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:07:35 PM EDT
[#6]
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:11:54 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Think of all the forces and equipment getting mired in that trap that now can't be used to quickly reinforce other fronts should they be needed. Seems like the Russians haven't been thinking of that. |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:12:34 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Yes we are and in 10-20 years Europe may look like a very different place. Though this war is far from over, I believe Ukraine will come out whole or nearly so. France and Germany will come out of it physically undamaged, but with significant political damage. They put themselves and Europe in a dangerous position through naked greed - not the actions of responsible adults and leaders of the EU. Poland and the Baltics, on the other hand, saw the same information and made appropriate decisions in time to build LNG terminals for themselves from about 2010-2015. That wasn't a coincidence. You can also argue that Poland is making an extremely foresighted choice with Ukraine which goes beyond “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Ukraine is going to come out of this war as a force to be reckoned with. Ukraine and Poland together will be the premiere military power in Europe. Ukraine also has the resources, energy, and nuclear power which will lead directly to a joint Ukraine-Poland nuclear weapons program, which is absolutely necessary for both of their long-term survivals. The Baltics, though they can’t compete with Poland in terms of contribution, no doubt hope come under the Poland/Ukraine umbrella based on their loyal support. Ukraine will remember who its good friends were, and also those who weren’t such good friends. Poland and the Baltics are getting on the right side of that equation. Depending on the breaks, I don’t think it’s impossible for Russia to break up with Ukraine eventually getting a major chunk of it, and/or for Kyiv to become the new center of the slavic world for the first time in several hundred years. So yeah, IMO Poland has some adult professionals running the country who not only know how to do the right thing, but how to maximize their benefit from it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Dracster: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Dracster: Dana and Zuzhana SPGs, and Krab SPG, three capable systems. Romania and Hungary either buy their stuff or make old Soviet towed designs. If Germany had balls, they'd join the team, if Poland let them. Poland says "nah". And by the way, also that "they'll be running the EU with Ukraine in 10 years." I'm drawing a blank but there was a project within the past few years, NGF or FCAS or EuroTank or something, that Poland wanted in on but the Franco-German group snubbed them. Shortly after, Poland started looking at the SEP3 and F-35. I still, jokingly, think that if war kicked off with Russia, Poland would have to think about whether to attack East or West. First the Britain-Poland-Ukraine triad and now a Poland-Slovakia-Czech Republic triad. What an interesting time we're living in. Yes we are and in 10-20 years Europe may look like a very different place. Though this war is far from over, I believe Ukraine will come out whole or nearly so. France and Germany will come out of it physically undamaged, but with significant political damage. They put themselves and Europe in a dangerous position through naked greed - not the actions of responsible adults and leaders of the EU. Poland and the Baltics, on the other hand, saw the same information and made appropriate decisions in time to build LNG terminals for themselves from about 2010-2015. That wasn't a coincidence. You can also argue that Poland is making an extremely foresighted choice with Ukraine which goes beyond “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Ukraine is going to come out of this war as a force to be reckoned with. Ukraine and Poland together will be the premiere military power in Europe. Ukraine also has the resources, energy, and nuclear power which will lead directly to a joint Ukraine-Poland nuclear weapons program, which is absolutely necessary for both of their long-term survivals. The Baltics, though they can’t compete with Poland in terms of contribution, no doubt hope come under the Poland/Ukraine umbrella based on their loyal support. Ukraine will remember who its good friends were, and also those who weren’t such good friends. Poland and the Baltics are getting on the right side of that equation. Depending on the breaks, I don’t think it’s impossible for Russia to break up with Ukraine eventually getting a major chunk of it, and/or for Kyiv to become the new center of the slavic world for the first time in several hundred years. So yeah, IMO Poland has some adult professionals running the country who not only know how to do the right thing, but how to maximize their benefit from it. I’d say Poland is a lot further along than “getting”. I remember early in the war how shocked the Ukrainian You-Tubers were at the reception they were getting in Poland, I think many of them honestly didn’t expect it. And Zelenskyy brightens up a lot when he’s around Duda. This is a interesting video on Poland and what was motivating them to go all-in for Ukraine.  Ukraine's vital ally - Why Poland matters in the Russian-Ukrainian war |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:21:31 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: They talked themselves into a corner. They've had twenty chances to say something amounting to "Our work here is done. Well done." and poof back home. Instead, every muppet rolled out the "We will crush you" horseshit and now defeat means abject humiliation. It will kill the myth of daddy Putin and his underlings... and those guys are totally willing to let every able bodied male in russia die for that myth. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident: The Russians are not in a good place. They just lost a lot of their top tier men trying to take Donetsk. That's not good, those guys don't grow on trees in Russia. Top tier Vagner Mercenaries were absolutely wasted near Bakhmut due to the Russian's inability to provide them with close air support during their assault. What a waste of good infantry. The Russians really need to take Donetsk before the muddy fall season. If they can't take Donetsk before the ground turns to mud they will NOT be able to have any prayer of bringing about favorable terms at the peace table and Ukraine will continue to fight. To say nothing of the fact that they still don't have dominance over the Black Sea coast and their land bridge to Transnistria, which at this point looks like a pipe dream for them. If this conflict goes into 2023 the Russians are so screwed. By the end of 2023 or early 2024 Ukraine might actually have their act together and enough equipment that when combined with full mobilization will mean either the Russians are going to have to just admit they're in a war and use conscription or they're going to get pushed out of Ukraine perhaps even losing Crimea. Russia is an aging nation. They don't have the young men they had in WW2 to throw into a meat grinder. The levels of corruption in the Russian military are still epic in scale. Hell, things are so bad for them recruitment wise that to keep from using conscripts they're going to prisons now and offering amnesty for those inmates with prior mil experience if they join up and fight. Some of the prisoners, even those with years left on their sentences are turning them down. If inmates in Russian prisons know that the war is going badly you can imagine that the common Russian citizen knows the war is going badly. I never underestimate Russians ability to just endure hardship and suffering. They seem to be resigned to it as a people, but at a certain point even the Russians will wonder "what the Hell are we doing this for?" Ukraine isn't that special of a place and their slavs like just like them who never invaded Russia or posed any serious threat. I think the average Russian knows the USA isn't crazy enough to start a war that could lead to a nuclear holocaust. So, at some point Putin is going to be facing a very negative population and the Russians tend to go from not giving a shit to full on revolution pretty damn quick and with little warning. If they had a frontal lobe or some sense of logic they would admit that the gamble failed. Ukraine looked like a juicy fruit ripe for the picking but turned out to be a fucking hornets nest. Fucking Russians just stifle your ego's and take the loss, go home! * They wont be able to until it's too late. It was probably too late in April. Should have done it when they withdrew from Kiev. They talked themselves into a corner. They've had twenty chances to say something amounting to "Our work here is done. Well done." and poof back home. Instead, every muppet rolled out the "We will crush you" horseshit and now defeat means abject humiliation. It will kill the myth of daddy Putin and his underlings... and those guys are totally willing to let every able bodied male in russia die for that myth. Both 100% correct. It’s hard to say where the point of no return was (or is) for Russia. I don’t think Putin could’ve survived withdrawal after the failure of the Kyiv offensive, but Russia could have. I sincerely believe that a coup of responsible Army officers could’ve (at that point) disposed of Putin, mumbled an apology, and returned to the Russian border (the actual Russian border) and it all would’ve blown over with minimal ramifications. Blame EVERYTHING on Putin and that would’ve been good enough for everyone. Even Ukraine so long as they got their land back. Now, I don’t know. Support is crystalizing behind Ukraine, and Europe if anything is providing more soft and hard support, not less. Support also (IMO) is cystallizing behind the idea of stopping Russia in Ukraine and crushing them permanently. Can that movement be stopped at this point? Even if Russia offs Putin and does an immediate about face, the damage is done. They’ve crippled their Army which limits their ability to keep their.former republics in line. Several satellite states will make their moves at some point. That is guaranteed. Europe is actively divorcing itself from Russian energy and isn’t going back - they’ve signed long-term contracts and can’t go back even if they wanted to. And even if the sanctions ended today it would take years, perhaps decades, to recover. So you have a crippled military, a crippled economy, and a jobless and angry populace who would probably buy into a “stab in the back” storyline. (See Hitler.). The successor to Putin could easily be worse than Putin. Accepting defeat gracefully now involves accepting a GREATLY diminished Russia. That is a tall ask for people weaned on Russism. What are their options? Almost all their options begin with retiring/killing Putin. That’s a given. After that their options are becoming either a European or a Chinese vassal. They will do better as a European vassal, but the Muscovites will probably be more comfortable returning to their historical role as Chinese vassal. My guess is that the west will try to steer China and what’s left of Russia into perennial conflict. Offer China (impolicitly) a fat juicy chunk of Russia that will divert them from Taiwan and solve all of China’s energy/resource needs. Make them an offer they can’t refuse and let China get stuck in. Then support Russia (just enough) try to retain their land against China. Let the two of them grind each other to powder. Profit. The next decades I think will be tough for everyone, but particularly for Russia. |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:25:43 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1Andy2: Think of all the forces and equipment getting mired in that trap that now can't be used to quickly reinforce other fronts should they be needed. Seems like the Russians haven't been thinking of that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1Andy2: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Think of all the forces and equipment getting mired in that trap that now can't be used to quickly reinforce other fronts should they be needed. Seems like the Russians haven't been thinking of that. They probably did…..the beauty of this trap is that even though they know it’s a trap they have to step into it anyway. They have to keep Kherson and with it control of Crimea’s water supply. Pulling out and letting UA take it back would be a strategic catastrophe for them so they have to hold it at all costs. UA is leveraging that against them. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:39:12 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Good analysis. I would point out it’s not historically unprecedented, that power alignment. That gives it staying power. Both for emotional and BoP considerations, Britain has a long investment in Poland, going back centuries, not just to 1939. Problem has always been translating that into action in the age of sale and is a great power without a great continental army. Time in technology have also factored into this development. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By Capta: Yes we are and in 10-20 years Europe may look like a very different place. Though this war is far from over, I believe Ukraine will come out whole or nearly so. France and Germany will come out of it physically undamaged, but with significant political damage. They put themselves and Europe in a dangerous position through naked greed - not the actions of responsible adults and leaders of the EU. Poland and the Baltics, on the other hand, saw the same information and made appropriate decisions in time to build LNG terminals for themselves from about 2010-2015. That wasn't a coincidence. You can also argue that Poland is making an extremely foresighted choice with Ukraine which goes beyond “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Ukraine is going to come out of this war as a force to be reckoned with. Ukraine and Poland together will be the premiere military power in Europe. Ukraine also has the resources, energy, and nuclear power which will lead directly to a joint Ukraine-Poland nuclear weapons program, which is absolutely necessary for both of their long-term survivals. The Baltics, though they can’t compete with Poland in terms of contribution, no doubt hope come under the Poland/Ukraine umbrella based on their loyal support. Ukraine will remember who its good friends were, and also those who weren’t such good friends. Poland and the Baltics are getting on the right side of that equation. Depending on the breaks, I don’t think it’s impossible for Russia to break up with Ukraine eventually getting a major chunk of it, and/or for Kyiv to become the new center of the slavic world for the first time in several hundred years. So yeah, IMO Poland has some adult professionals running the country who not only know how to do the right thing, but how to maximize their benefit from it. Good analysis. I would point out it’s not historically unprecedented, that power alignment. That gives it staying power. Both for emotional and BoP considerations, Britain has a long investment in Poland, going back centuries, not just to 1939. Problem has always been translating that into action in the age of sale and is a great power without a great continental army. Time in technology have also factored into this development. I think you bring up an excellent point with Britain. Whether Britain stays with the EU or not is still somewhat of an open questions at this point - however, Britain’s interests are best served by encouraging a strong counterweight to Germany/France, and that is Ukraine/Poland+Britain. I have to admire the Brits - they have at least a 150-year history of making nation-saving strategic decisions and getting on the right side of the force equation. You could definitely argue that their Ukraine play is intended to bring about a second “special relationship” with Poland/Ukraine. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:47:56 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Yeah, props to him for going and fighting, but his constant Twitter posting has kind of rubbed me the wrong way. It feels like a bit of a publicity stunt, to a certain degree. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ-VG1wXEAAzdkB?format=jpg&name=large Glad he’s around, but he needs to stay off Twitter. Yeah, props to him for going and fighting, but his constant Twitter posting has kind of rubbed me the wrong way. It feels like a bit of a publicity stunt, to a certain degree. Also the UTG bullshit he posts as bringing gear to his buds. All that money raised and you bring the cheapest shit that you can find that doesn’t work. I also don’t think he’s in combat now. It’s not easy to get a green pass port unless A) you speak the language and/or sign a contract. If you sign a contract and don’t speak Russian/Ukrainian you are going to international legion period. If you have special skills and speak the language and or are SF you might get a waiver to go to a unit. It’s not march anymore and you better have a green passport or a hip pocket officer with you at all times. I think they are doing IED stuff which is needed but not combat. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:52:46 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vahog: I had found this before on Quora: The spelling "potatoe" was widely used in the 19th Century, but by the early 20th Century the spelling without the final 'e' had become widely accepted as the correct version for the singular of the word (the plural is "potatoes"). In 1992, then-Vice President Dan Quayle read from a spelling bee answer card that erroneously gave the spelling as "potatoe". Quayle later said that he thought it was wrong at the time but read off the version that was written on the card given to him by an English teacher at the school. Being a Republican candidate in a national election campaign, he was mercilessly ridiculed by the media for the mistake. None of the children in the spelling bee had ever seen any spelling besides "potato." Ironically, the alternate spelling "potatoe," while uncommon, was still used infrequently at that time. For example, the New York Times was still occasionally spelling potato with an -e as late as 1988. Spellings of "potatoe" can be found in the media all the way up to 15 June 1992, the date of the Quayle incident, at which point they suddenly stopped except when used in an ironic way Now, back to burning BMPs for me. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vahog: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: Despite being wrong about Dan Quayle at the end, Originally Posted By LurkerII: Dan Quayle could not even spell potato, Carlin was right on! Although I couldn't stand the Bush 1 administration for banning imported "assualt weapons" in 1989 as well as Quayle standing by Bush with his mouth shut whenever Bush spoke about AW bans, Quayle was not a stupid person in my opinion. In 1986 and 1987, I spent a lot of time researching nuclear forces stats/info of the USA and Russia and my work ended up making international news via my congressman regarding the INF Treaty. Anyway, I read a lot of senate hearing transcripts and a lot of what Dan Quayle stated regarding nuclear weapons security- he's not dumb, not even a little. I'm not an expert of the history of spelling, but around 1992, I was talking to a retired engineer who was in his late 70s and the Dan Quayle spelling incident came up. He told me that when he was young, potato was sometimes spelled "pototoe". I dont know if that is true, but the guy was a high level engineer/geologist in his career. @Ryan_Ruck I had found this before on Quora: The spelling "potatoe" was widely used in the 19th Century, but by the early 20th Century the spelling without the final 'e' had become widely accepted as the correct version for the singular of the word (the plural is "potatoes"). In 1992, then-Vice President Dan Quayle read from a spelling bee answer card that erroneously gave the spelling as "potatoe". Quayle later said that he thought it was wrong at the time but read off the version that was written on the card given to him by an English teacher at the school. Being a Republican candidate in a national election campaign, he was mercilessly ridiculed by the media for the mistake. None of the children in the spelling bee had ever seen any spelling besides "potato." Ironically, the alternate spelling "potatoe," while uncommon, was still used infrequently at that time. For example, the New York Times was still occasionally spelling potato with an -e as late as 1988. Spellings of "potatoe" can be found in the media all the way up to 15 June 1992, the date of the Quayle incident, at which point they suddenly stopped except when used in an ironic way Now, back to burning BMPs for me. Along with the potato spelling thing, and making Dan Quale look like an idiot. Remember they were posting images of Bush compared to a monkey Compare these miniscule issues completely blown out of proportion to make them look like idiots, to the rotting potato and the level of stupidity he is doing each and every day. We need to take back the media and shut down the democrats |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 6:56:40 PM EDT
[#14]
@gentlemanfarmer
Just sent a decent donation for the cause. I used a card no option to voice my support https://www.usinua.org/donate.html |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:04:24 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Staged news from Russian media including fake civilians running on cue for the cameramen.
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:05:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: They probably did…..the beauty of this trap is that even though they know it’s a trap they have to step into it anyway. They have to keep Kherson and with it control of Crimea’s water supply. Pulling out and letting UA take it back would be a strategic catastrophe for them so they have to hold it at all costs. UA is leveraging that against them. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: Originally Posted By 1Andy2: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Think of all the forces and equipment getting mired in that trap that now can't be used to quickly reinforce other fronts should they be needed. Seems like the Russians haven't been thinking of that. They probably did…..the beauty of this trap is that even though they know it’s a trap they have to step into it anyway. They have to keep Kherson and with it control of Crimea’s water supply. Pulling out and letting UA take it back would be a strategic catastrophe for them so they have to hold it at all costs. UA is leveraging that against them. Great point. The Donbas offensive was a fool’s errand. The whole of Eastern Ukraine is nothing but a giant exercise in defense-in-depth, repeated all the way to the Dnepr if necessary. The Russian play should’ve been an offensive from Kherson to Odessa, landlocking Ukraine, and then north through (or past) Transnistria to cut the western supply route. The Donbas can wait indefinitely. Getting Russia off the west bank of the Dnepr, with Russia holding Odessa, would’ve been practically impossible. Another benefit is that - whether Russian forces are literally now “trapped” in Kherson or not - Ukraine benefits by running the Russians ragged to respond to threatened offensives. Get them moving en masse in the open and shoot them to pieces with HIMARS, repeat. The Russians don’t have the manpower to dig in and sit tight everywhere. Again, poor strategic thinking by Russia. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:06:41 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: The dude shows up after the fact and takes glamor shots, and people eat it up. The fact that he's always trying to prove something says a lot. He did an interview with Speak the Truth and talked about a number of fights he was directly involved in. So , maybe he is a liar or some people are jumping to conclusions based on conjecture. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:12:35 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: They talked themselves into a corner. They've had twenty chances to say something amounting to "Our work here is done. Well done." and poof back home. Instead, every muppet rolled out the "We will crush you" horseshit and now defeat means abject humiliation. It will kill the myth of daddy Putin and his underlings... and those guys are totally willing to let every able bodied male in russia die for that myth. Once you are selling to your general public that you are fighting real actual Nazis, then you can't really negotiate a peace. How could you say these are the most terrible people on earth......, but now we got to negotiate and live next to them? If Outin decides to tell his people they really weren't fighting Nazis after all. Could Imagine all the really pissed off Russians with dead or permanently maimed boys might revolt. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:14:40 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Yeah, I'm tired of his twitter shit. He must be scoring some quality tail over there. Got divorced and sold all his stuff and headed back over. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By M-1975: The dude shows up after the fact and takes glamor shots, and people eat it up. The fact that he's always trying to prove something says a lot. Yeah, I'm tired of his twitter shit. He must be scoring some quality tail over there. Got divorced and sold all his stuff and headed back over. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:37:26 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I wondered where these inflatable S-300 Sam systems were coming from. These look like so much fun for the yard.  I'm not a responsible adult though.  https://s.alicdn.com/@sc04/kf/He8cefef5697b4cbf87f3ed046dc9083bC.jpg_720x720q50.jpg https://s.alicdn.com/@sc04/kf/HTB1URRPeDfN8KJjSZFjq6xGvpXaJ.jpg_720x720q50.jpg https://s.alicdn.com/@sc04/kf/HTB1XiAYdzgy_uJjSZK9q6xvlFXaB.jpg_720x720q50.jpg https://s.alicdn.com/@sc04/kf/HTB13KVImdzJ8KJjSspkq6zF7VXaf.jpg_720x720q50.jpg Like the Russian guided missile electronic components, Alibaba is their friend. Group buy for $2,000. https://m.alibaba.com/product/60731054529/Inflatable-military-decoy-inflatable-Defense-Missile.html @Skywarp2203 Asian inflatables? $5.00says beitodesstrafe has ordered alot from there in the past  |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:42:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: governmentman]
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1Andy2: Think of all the forces and equipment getting mired in that trap that now can't be used to quickly reinforce other fronts should they be needed. Seems like the Russians haven't been thinking of that. I'm thinking more than a few Russians have thought of that - and can do nothing about it. This doubling down on an unsupportable Kherson front / pocket has to be political. If Ukraine is smart (and they appear to be) they'll let the trapped Russians simmer for a while and run lower on fuel and munitions. Who knows? Perhaps that political pressure will result in suicidally risky resupply attempts and further castrate Russia's logistics capabilities |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:43:11 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: Rise and shine, Cyka!
 Tick tock! |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:44:00 PM EDT
[#23]
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:48:54 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Best job he's ever had. He's doing good work, a piece of HUMINT Oh wow, he found a stuck tank. Was it still running, or has it been sitting since April? No, I'm not going to Ukraine, I'm 65 and wouldn't be much use, maybe mine clearing. I just pass by his chest thumping bullshit. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 7:53:03 PM EDT
[#25]
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:12:27 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Oh wow, he found a stuck tank. Was it still running, or has it been sitting since April? No, I'm not going to Ukraine, I'm 65 and wouldn't be much use, maybe mine clearing. I just pass by his chest thumping bullshit. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Best job he's ever had. He's doing good work, a piece of HUMINT Oh wow, he found a stuck tank. Was it still running, or has it been sitting since April? No, I'm not going to Ukraine, I'm 65 and wouldn't be much use, maybe mine clearing. I just pass by his chest thumping bullshit. When he said that he got an AK and the first shot busted his lip because it kicks so hard, I knew he was a fucking moron. That was the first of many unbelievably retarded things he said. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:12:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#27]
It does look like a mast mounted Clam Shell radar for the S-300.  
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MI, USA
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:15:26 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Oh wow, he found a stuck tank. Was it still running, or has it been sitting since April? No, I'm not going to Ukraine, I'm 65 and wouldn't be much use, maybe mine clearing. I just pass by his chest thumping bullshit. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Best job he's ever had. He's doing good work, a piece of HUMINT Oh wow, he found a stuck tank. Was it still running, or has it been sitting since April? No, I'm not going to Ukraine, I'm 65 and wouldn't be much use, maybe mine clearing. I just pass by his chest thumping bullshit. Ya I followed for about 12 hours but found he was posting like a bigger hammer. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:16:10 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Both 100% correct. It’s hard to say where the point of no return was (or is) for Russia. I don’t think Putin could’ve survived withdrawal after the failure of the Kyiv offensive, but Russia could have. I sincerely believe that a coup of responsible Army officers could’ve (at that point) disposed of Putin, mumbled an apology, and returned to the Russian border (the actual Russian border) and it all would’ve blown over with minimal ramifications. Blame EVERYTHING on Putin and that would’ve been good enough for everyone. Even Ukraine so long as they got their land back. Now, I don’t know. Support is crystalizing behind Ukraine, and Europe if anything is providing more soft and hard support, not less. Support also (IMO) is cystallizing behind the idea of stopping Russia in Ukraine and crushing them permanently. Can that movement be stopped at this point? Even if Russia offs Putin and does an immediate about face, the damage is done. They’ve crippled their Army which limits their ability to keep their.former republics in line. Several satellite states will make their moves at some point. That is guaranteed. Europe is actively divorcing itself from Russian energy and isn’t going back - they’ve signed long-term contracts and can’t go back even if they wanted to. And even if the sanctions ended today it would take years, perhaps decades, to recover. So you have a crippled military, a crippled economy, and a jobless and angry populace who would probably buy into a “stab in the back” storyline. (See Hitler.). The successor to Putin could easily be worse than Putin. Accepting defeat gracefully now involves accepting a GREATLY diminished Russia. That is a tall ask for people weaned on Russism. What are their options? Almost all their options begin with retiring/killing Putin. That’s a given. After that their options are becoming either a European or a Chinese vassal. They will do better as a European vassal, but the Muscovites will probably be more comfortable returning to their historical role as Chinese vassal. My guess is that the west will try to steer China and what’s left of Russia into perennial conflict. Offer China (impolicitly) a fat juicy chunk of Russia that will divert them from Taiwan and solve all of China’s energy/resource needs. Make them an offer they can’t refuse and let China get stuck in. Then support Russia (just enough) try to retain their land against China. Let the two of them grind each other to powder. Profit. The next decades I think will be tough for everyone, but particularly for Russia. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident: The Russians are not in a good place. They just lost a lot of their top tier men trying to take Donetsk. That's not good, those guys don't grow on trees in Russia. Top tier Vagner Mercenaries were absolutely wasted near Bakhmut due to the Russian's inability to provide them with close air support during their assault. What a waste of good infantry. The Russians really need to take Donetsk before the muddy fall season. If they can't take Donetsk before the ground turns to mud they will NOT be able to have any prayer of bringing about favorable terms at the peace table and Ukraine will continue to fight. To say nothing of the fact that they still don't have dominance over the Black Sea coast and their land bridge to Transnistria, which at this point looks like a pipe dream for them. If this conflict goes into 2023 the Russians are so screwed. By the end of 2023 or early 2024 Ukraine might actually have their act together and enough equipment that when combined with full mobilization will mean either the Russians are going to have to just admit they're in a war and use conscription or they're going to get pushed out of Ukraine perhaps even losing Crimea. Russia is an aging nation. They don't have the young men they had in WW2 to throw into a meat grinder. The levels of corruption in the Russian military are still epic in scale. Hell, things are so bad for them recruitment wise that to keep from using conscripts they're going to prisons now and offering amnesty for those inmates with prior mil experience if they join up and fight. Some of the prisoners, even those with years left on their sentences are turning them down. If inmates in Russian prisons know that the war is going badly you can imagine that the common Russian citizen knows the war is going badly. I never underestimate Russians ability to just endure hardship and suffering. They seem to be resigned to it as a people, but at a certain point even the Russians will wonder "what the Hell are we doing this for?" Ukraine isn't that special of a place and their slavs like just like them who never invaded Russia or posed any serious threat. I think the average Russian knows the USA isn't crazy enough to start a war that could lead to a nuclear holocaust. So, at some point Putin is going to be facing a very negative population and the Russians tend to go from not giving a shit to full on revolution pretty damn quick and with little warning. If they had a frontal lobe or some sense of logic they would admit that the gamble failed. Ukraine looked like a juicy fruit ripe for the picking but turned out to be a fucking hornets nest. Fucking Russians just stifle your ego's and take the loss, go home! * They wont be able to until it's too late. It was probably too late in April. Should have done it when they withdrew from Kiev. They talked themselves into a corner. They've had twenty chances to say something amounting to "Our work here is done. Well done." and poof back home. Instead, every muppet rolled out the "We will crush you" horseshit and now defeat means abject humiliation. It will kill the myth of daddy Putin and his underlings... and those guys are totally willing to let every able bodied male in russia die for that myth. Both 100% correct. It’s hard to say where the point of no return was (or is) for Russia. I don’t think Putin could’ve survived withdrawal after the failure of the Kyiv offensive, but Russia could have. I sincerely believe that a coup of responsible Army officers could’ve (at that point) disposed of Putin, mumbled an apology, and returned to the Russian border (the actual Russian border) and it all would’ve blown over with minimal ramifications. Blame EVERYTHING on Putin and that would’ve been good enough for everyone. Even Ukraine so long as they got their land back. Now, I don’t know. Support is crystalizing behind Ukraine, and Europe if anything is providing more soft and hard support, not less. Support also (IMO) is cystallizing behind the idea of stopping Russia in Ukraine and crushing them permanently. Can that movement be stopped at this point? Even if Russia offs Putin and does an immediate about face, the damage is done. They’ve crippled their Army which limits their ability to keep their.former republics in line. Several satellite states will make their moves at some point. That is guaranteed. Europe is actively divorcing itself from Russian energy and isn’t going back - they’ve signed long-term contracts and can’t go back even if they wanted to. And even if the sanctions ended today it would take years, perhaps decades, to recover. So you have a crippled military, a crippled economy, and a jobless and angry populace who would probably buy into a “stab in the back” storyline. (See Hitler.). The successor to Putin could easily be worse than Putin. Accepting defeat gracefully now involves accepting a GREATLY diminished Russia. That is a tall ask for people weaned on Russism. What are their options? Almost all their options begin with retiring/killing Putin. That’s a given. After that their options are becoming either a European or a Chinese vassal. They will do better as a European vassal, but the Muscovites will probably be more comfortable returning to their historical role as Chinese vassal. My guess is that the west will try to steer China and what’s left of Russia into perennial conflict. Offer China (impolicitly) a fat juicy chunk of Russia that will divert them from Taiwan and solve all of China’s energy/resource needs. Make them an offer they can’t refuse and let China get stuck in. Then support Russia (just enough) try to retain their land against China. Let the two of them grind each other to powder. Profit. The next decades I think will be tough for everyone, but particularly for Russia. ORCYLAND HAS NEVER APOLOGIZED for anything... EVER... the closest you can get is a REGRET...that's it... but never an apology. They never apologized for anything they have done especially to Hungary and many other nations they invaded. Poland needs a big fat apology and sorry for Katryn. Even modern Orcs today from Sonny Puzikas and all of the pro orc cock suckers will never confront their past that Orcyland is just a thuggish nation....commie or no commie. that's it. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:16:50 PM EDT
[Last Edit: gentlemanfarmer]
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: @gentlemanfarmer Just sent a decent donation for the cause. I used a card no option to voice my support https://www.usinua.org/donate.html Chain gun- Awesome it’s going to PTTs if I can figure out WTF ones they have and whether they will work with the models of Motorola they use and the Comtac 6s we just got. Pin on figuration is dizzying and not in my knowledge well. It looks like Savy Sniper is helping with slings on our (actually my wife’s foundation can’t mess with actual firearms) rifles, got an exporter and four rifles heading over to friends. 2 rifles to the 25th airmobile, and two colt CCUs to other friends in the SSO near Kharkiv. Hoping firearms will go out in two weeks or so. Plus 24 mags. Thanks to Mike for the help there, If we get past that headache, $$$ will go to a 34mm mount for this 1-8 that’s supposed to go on one of the guns. Unfortunately the one mount painted for that rifle is 30mm. I like to let guys know where the money goes whenever possible.  Attached File |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:22:58 PM EDT
[#31]
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:26:05 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#32]
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:28:04 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: When he said that he got an AK and the first shot busted his lip because it kicks so hard, I knew he was a fucking moron. That was the first of many unbelievably retarded things he said. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Best job he's ever had. He's doing good work, a piece of HUMINT Oh wow, he found a stuck tank. Was it still running, or has it been sitting since April? No, I'm not going to Ukraine, I'm 65 and wouldn't be much use, maybe mine clearing. I just pass by his chest thumping bullshit. When he said that he got an AK and the first shot busted his lip because it kicks so hard, I knew he was a fucking moron. That was the first of many unbelievably retarded things he said. Didn't he say that AKM and AK74 mags are interchangable? |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:31:11 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Yeah, props to him for going and fighting, but his constant Twitter posting has kind of rubbed me the wrong way. It feels like a bit of a publicity stunt, to a certain degree. I think he lets the trolls get to him. Do your thing, post pics and fuck the haters . |
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CT, USA
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:32:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: KELBEAST]
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Abakan: Didn't he say that AKM and AK74 mags are interchangable? I thought he traded a 74 for a 47 because it hits harder. Even though mags and ammo are scarcer in the war zone. Then bitched about having to constantly figure out how to put optics on old AK’s |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:39:12 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Abakan: Didn't he say that AKM and AK74 mags are interchangable? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Abakan: Originally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Best job he's ever had. He's doing good work, a piece of HUMINT Oh wow, he found a stuck tank. Was it still running, or has it been sitting since April? No, I'm not going to Ukraine, I'm 65 and wouldn't be much use, maybe mine clearing. I just pass by his chest thumping bullshit. When he said that he got an AK and the first shot busted his lip because it kicks so hard, I knew he was a fucking moron. That was the first of many unbelievably retarded things he said. Didn't he say that AKM and AK74 mags are interchangable? I don't recall that one, but I do remember him saying he traded his 74 for a 47 because MOAR POWER and then cried about how hard it is to find magazines for his 7.62 rifle and blamed it on the US government for not sending him and his squad M4s. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:40:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: gentlemanfarmer]
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
I beat OSINTtechnical bye 2 months? Those pieces of shit we’re on the way to Kharkiv on Zil trucks.  Attached File |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:46:54 PM EDT
[Last Edit: gentlemanfarmer]
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: I don't recall that one, but I do remember him saying he traded his 74 for a 47 because MOAR POWER and then cried about how hard it is to find magazines for his 7.62 rifle and blamed it on the US government for not sending him and his squad M4s. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By Abakan: Originally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Best job he's ever had. He's doing good work, a piece of HUMINT Oh wow, he found a stuck tank. Was it still running, or has it been sitting since April? No, I'm not going to Ukraine, I'm 65 and wouldn't be much use, maybe mine clearing. I just pass by his chest thumping bullshit. When he said that he got an AK and the first shot busted his lip because it kicks so hard, I knew he was a fucking moron. That was the first of many unbelievably retarded things he said. Didn't he say that AKM and AK74 mags are interchangable? I don't recall that one, but I do remember him saying he traded his 74 for a 47 because MOAR POWER and then cried about how hard it is to find magazines for his 7.62 rifle and blamed it on the US government for not sending him and his squad M4s. I really don’t think he’s in combat now. He twitters way too much to be in a contact area. No way you post like that anywhere near 0,1,2 positions. I don’t take away from him being there but frankly that stuff is a liability if you are near the front, people like that get people killed. Last point, I don’t like hunting over bait but I have forwarded the idea on. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:54:04 PM EDT
[#39]
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FL, USA
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Posted: 8/12/2022 8:54:29 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
That warms my heart. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 9:02:58 PM EDT
[#41]
You guys remember that cool exploded Russian tank they made into a garden? Well the two kids are selling parts of it.
Link to their auctions: https://auctions.ukraineaidops.org/victory-gallery/Auction    |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 8/12/2022 9:08:20 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Lol, my family gets so mad at me when I point out the inaccuracies in how the movies portray of how real weapons systems work. My architect wife says things like, "Oh, that building has stretcher bond but it would have Flemish bond." And I say, "Good catch. I never noticed that about Hoguemont. Look, the French are carrying Mosin Nagants." |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 9:34:54 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vahog: My architect wife says things like, "Oh, that building has stretcher bond but it would have Flemish bond." And I say, "Good catch. I never noticed that about Hoguemont. Look, the French are carrying Mosin Nagants." Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vahog: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Lol, my family gets so mad at me when I point out the inaccuracies in how the movies portray of how real weapons systems work. My architect wife says things like, "Oh, that building has stretcher bond but it would have Flemish bond." And I say, "Good catch. I never noticed that about Hoguemont. Look, the French are carrying Mosin Nagants." lol, for human beings, it really does come down to the things each of us is interested in. 
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VA, USA
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Posted: 8/12/2022 9:36:58 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
Doggone it, I want M113s to be green. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 9:45:59 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
It does look like a mast mounted Clam Shell radar for the S-300. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ_qC5DUsAASoCr?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CfOgrArWsAAs52h?format=jpg&name=large Isn't this the airfield that was supposed to have two battalions of S-400 guarding it? |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 9:49:04 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vahog: My architect wife says things like, "Oh, that building has stretcher bond but it would have Flemish bond." And I say, "Good catch. I never noticed that about Hoguemont. Look, the French are carrying Mosin Nagants." Damn, now that’s funny. And weirdly the second Waterloo allusion I’ve run across today. But for the sake of accuracy, looks like at least some of the compound walls at Hougoumont are English bond:  Attached File |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 10:04:33 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: Isn't this the airfield that was supposed to have two battalions of S-400 guarding it? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
It does look like a mast mounted Clam Shell radar for the S-300. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ_qC5DUsAASoCr?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CfOgrArWsAAs52h?format=jpg&name=large Isn't this the airfield that was supposed to have two battalions of S-400 guarding it? I think that was the one that was hit, it's said that this airfield did have an S-300 or S-400 system on base for some time. |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 10:05:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#48]
Seems to be a typo at ISW, but the assessment is for August 12th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-10-0 Fear of Ukrainian partisan activity could very well be shaping the behavior of occupation forces. Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko claimed that Russian proxy Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces shot down a Russian helicopter in the Staryi Krym settlement just outside of Mariupol, allegedly because the DNR forces were jumpy due to "fear of resistance."[48] The Mariupol City Council linked reports of the shooting to claims of discord within occupation leadership.[49] |
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Posted: 8/12/2022 10:07:18 PM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 8/12/2022 10:23:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Ryan_Ruck]
[#50]
Wrong thread.
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