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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 3399 of 5591)
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Link Posted: 1/27/2023 2:56:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta] [#1]
As the page turns, so turns Claire Gerhardstein:

Claire Gerhardstein in 4K (90)
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 2:57:16 PM EDT
[#2]
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I can't stop watching that..........




CMOS
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 2:58:09 PM EDT
[#3]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Video in tweet.

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I agree with him. While I despise MSNBC and dislike democrats in general, I've always respected Barry McCaffrey. He had a helluva military career and was regarded as a competent and capable leader.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 2:58:43 PM EDT
[#4]
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Originally Posted By CMOS:



I can't stop watching that..........




CMOS
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Originally Posted By CMOS:



I can't stop watching that..........




CMOS

Yes, it’s quite nice.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 2:59:05 PM EDT
[#5]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


Theres almost no plausible Abrams vs China scenario, which is largely why the US Marines were getting rid of them.

The exception would perhaps be 'Operation Irony,' where the US has to invade Vietnam to liberate the Vietnamese Communists from Chinese occupation.
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By CleverNickname:
Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:
We’re entering an eminent war with China we have 2-5 years to get our house in order. Getting our armored fleet back and to the top needs this.

Would US tanks really be very important in a China-US war?  I don't see the US sending tanks to Taiwan while hostilities are in progress, if only because RORO ships full of tanks would be a big fat target, along with any port facilities able to unload them.  And I don't think anyone serious has suggested that the US would invade the mainland in such a war.  So where would the US be using armor?


Theres almost no plausible Abrams vs China scenario, which is largely why the US Marines were getting rid of them.

The exception would perhaps be 'Operation Irony,' where the US has to invade Vietnam to liberate the Vietnamese Communists from Chinese occupation.


They’ve been trying to bury the hatchet since at least the Clinton Regime…..they were able to stop the Chi-Coms cold in ‘79, but would like help next time.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:01:51 PM EDT
[#6]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:

Russians drunk driving hummers that come apart and kill everyone in them in low speed crashes? The US should pay the Taliban to make it happen.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By sq40:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-plots-to-seize-us-weapons-from-afghanistan/ar-AA16JmRL

Vladimir Putin plots to seize US weapons from Afghanistan

A Kremlin insider claims that the Russian despot is in negotiations with the Taliban to recognise the nation's government.

In return, Putin wants US equipment snatched from Afghanistan by the Taliban to be handed over - according to Telegram channel General SVR - which claims to be fed information by a Kremlin insider.

American troops withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 as the Taliban surged across the nation and it is thought that fighters stole as many as half a million weapons and up to 50,000 vehicles.

The General SVR channel claims: "Putin is overseeing negotiations with the Taliban to recognise the Taliban government.

"In return, the Russian leadership is offering a major arms and military equipment swap.

"Putin reported that the Taliban possess weapons and equipment including those seized after coming to power in Afghanistan, that are scarce for the Russian Army at the front.

"People initiated into the details of the negotiations say that the Taliban are extremely surprised by such proposals, but they are discussing them in earnest.”

Russians drunk driving hummers that come apart and kill everyone in them in low speed crashes? The US should pay the Taliban to make it happen.


More likely they’ll send the DirleWagners or Chechens out kitted in US gear to commit atrocities, film it and give it to Galloway, Ritter, ect to excite the usual suspects.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:04:15 PM EDT
[Last Edit: johnh57] [#7]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This happened faster than I anticipated.




Post from the Ukrainian govt was simply this:




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I know Lockheed Martin is spooling up production, but has anyone in the us.gov specifically told Ukraine they are getting them? Or is it just that they have said if they want to purchase f16's thats fine?
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:05:14 PM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:



Really?  I guess that means we finally used up all of the F-4 drones...  

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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By ludder093:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I think F-16's are going to be released soon. Not sure about ATACMS. The Britts could send some to break the ice so to say. They seem to have more balls than anyone but Poland.

I mean we're using them as target drones...



Really?  I guess that means we finally used up all of the F-4 drones...  


Yep.



I believe I remember reading the F-4s were all expended more than a couple years ago.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:14:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Easterner] [#9]
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:16:11 PM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By Auto5guy:

Wow....

Thank you UKjohn.  You are a gentleman.

I am honored.


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Anytime bro
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:18:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#11]
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Originally Posted By johnh57:



I know Lockheed Martin is spooling up production, but has anyone in the us.gov specifically told Ukraine they are getting them? Or is it just that they have said if they want to purchase f16's thats fine?
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Originally Posted By johnh57:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This happened faster than I anticipated.




Post from the Ukrainian govt was simply this:







I know Lockheed Martin is spooling up production, but has anyone in the us.gov specifically told Ukraine they are getting them? Or is it just that they have said if they want to purchase f16's thats fine?



A few clues.  It might have been told in the private session at the recent NATO summit with Ukraine.  Other NATO members said they would be interested in giving Ukraine their F-16's.  The US said it would okay quicky any F-16 transfers from other NATO countries to Ukraine.

The production of new F-16's is to help backfill the donations, and perhaps long term create new planes specifically for Ukraine down the road.

We now know who might be using the JDAM Kits sent to Ukraine over a month ago.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:24:26 PM EDT
[#12]
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Originally Posted By stone-age:


I expect a LOT of the delay is all about Europeans not wanting to look like they have just declared war on Russia. This isn't a proxy war between U.S. and Russia. It is a proxy war between Europe and Russia. And the goal of U.S. leadership is not necessarily to to give Ukraine a win, the goal is to destroy the russian military. The more drawn out the war, the more russian stuff gets destroyed. I get the feeling the U.S. leadership sees this as the golden opportunity they couldn't have imagined. They don't want to allow the russians to escape. Just enough support to keep damaging them a little more and a little more and little more.
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Originally Posted By stone-age:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Video in tweet.



I expect a LOT of the delay is all about Europeans not wanting to look like they have just declared war on Russia. This isn't a proxy war between U.S. and Russia. It is a proxy war between Europe and Russia. And the goal of U.S. leadership is not necessarily to to give Ukraine a win, the goal is to destroy the russian military. The more drawn out the war, the more russian stuff gets destroyed. I get the feeling the U.S. leadership sees this as the golden opportunity they couldn't have imagined. They don't want to allow the russians to escape. Just enough support to keep damaging them a little more and a little more and little more.

I have suspected for quite a while that there is a calculated effort to boil the russian frog.

If in the first month of the invasion NATO had responded by sweeping into Ukraine through Poland with American and European tanks, mobile artillery, armored vehicles, anti aircraft defenses, Patriot batteries, HIMARS, current generation antitank rockets, smart munitions, ATACMS, and 4th generation fighters, russia would have absolutely gone nuclear.  Using tactical nukes as a minimum.  

By piecemealing all these items out to the UKR forces, bit by bit, one at a time over months, all the while debating and declaring each of them a reasonable measured response to russian actions, we haven't taken a single large enough step for the russians to justify going nuclear or spreading the conflict beyond current boundaries.

Yet when all is said and done all of the items I listed will eventually be in Ukraine via Poland and will be grinding russia into dust.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:27:11 PM EDT
[#13]



Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:30:52 PM EDT
[#14]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1619031423641391104/xyNj3sP1?format=jpg&name=900x900

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Are they RPG rounds
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:39:02 PM EDT
[#15]
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Originally Posted By UKjohn:
Are they RPG rounds
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Originally Posted By UKjohn:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1619031423641391104/xyNj3sP1?format=jpg&name=900x900

Are they RPG rounds



Yes, mostly modified PG-7VS to be exact, and $300 per drone.

Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:41:28 PM EDT
[#16]
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Damn.  The F-16 is one sleek beautiful aircraft.

For a fourth generation pure dog fighter does the F-16 take a back seat to anything?  I would love to see it swat everything russia currently has from the sky and after the smoke clears park F35's in Ukraine just to say don't even think about doing this again.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:43:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 74HC] [#17]
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Originally Posted By Capta:
As the page turns, so turns Claire Gerhardstein:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZEjvFcLpgU
View Quote
Seems like a pathetic life existence if all you do is watch for posting at the top of pages.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:44:16 PM EDT
[#18]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Yes, mostly modified PG-7VS to be exact, and $300 per drone.

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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By UKjohn:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1619031423641391104/xyNj3sP1?format=jpg&name=900x900

Are they RPG rounds



Yes, mostly modified PG-7VS to be exact, and $300 per drone.

I would of thought they were heavier. Thats not a huge drone by any means. I never have had a chance to fire an rpg so no reference on warhead weight.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:44:53 PM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By Tiberius:


More likely they’ll send the DirleWagners or Chechens out kitted in US gear to commit atrocities, film it and give it to Galloway, Ritter, ect to excite the usual suspects.
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What you did there, I see it and it is hilarious


And also accurate


Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:45:31 PM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By mercersfinest4:


If Russia begins fielding US equipment on the battlefield against UKR, that’s going to be a terrible look for FJB.

Everyone would get a reminder of his failure of leadership right ahead of the 2024 election.


I would expect to see the quality of our equipment transfers increase to help UKR win faster.
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This and I would expect a smoking accident while any of those items are in transit.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:48:28 PM EDT
[#21]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:

Yep.

https://i.imgur.com/0No3xpz.jpg

I believe I remember reading the F-4s were all expended more than a couple years ago.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By ludder093:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I think F-16's are going to be released soon. Not sure about ATACMS. The Britts could send some to break the ice so to say. They seem to have more balls than anyone but Poland.

I mean we're using them as target drones...



Really?  I guess that means we finally used up all of the F-4 drones...  


Yep.

https://i.imgur.com/0No3xpz.jpg

I believe I remember reading the F-4s were all expended more than a couple years ago.



You are correct.  Here is a video of the final flight. Sucks we are using F-16s for this now.

QF-4: The Final Unmanned Flight
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:49:51 PM EDT
[#22]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Video in tweet.

View Quote

Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:51:15 PM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By craig19:



You are correct.  Here is a video of the final flight. Sucks we are using F-16s for this now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s7LMuHWQrk
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Originally Posted By craig19:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By ludder093:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I think F-16's are going to be released soon. Not sure about ATACMS. The Britts could send some to break the ice so to say. They seem to have more balls than anyone but Poland.

I mean we're using them as target drones...



Really?  I guess that means we finally used up all of the F-4 drones...  


Yep.

https://i.imgur.com/0No3xpz.jpg

I believe I remember reading the F-4s were all expended more than a couple years ago.



You are correct.  Here is a video of the final flight. Sucks we are using F-16s for this now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s7LMuHWQrk

6 years ago was about when I was thinking.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:52:56 PM EDT
[#24]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:

6 years ago was about when I was thinking.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By craig19:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By ludder093:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I think F-16's are going to be released soon. Not sure about ATACMS. The Britts could send some to break the ice so to say. They seem to have more balls than anyone but Poland.

I mean we're using them as target drones...



Really?  I guess that means we finally used up all of the F-4 drones...  


Yep.

https://i.imgur.com/0No3xpz.jpg

I believe I remember reading the F-4s were all expended more than a couple years ago.



You are correct.  Here is a video of the final flight. Sucks we are using F-16s for this now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s7LMuHWQrk

6 years ago was about when I was thinking.



I wonder how many F-16s we've burned through as targets, since then?
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:54:36 PM EDT
[#25]
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Originally Posted By Capta:
As the page turns, so turns Claire Gerhardstein:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZEjvFcLpgU
View Quote


My man!
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 3:58:09 PM EDT
[#26]
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Originally Posted By Capta:
As the page turns, so turns Claire Gerhardstein:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZEjvFcLpgU
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Dat thigh gap tho!
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:02:32 PM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By Esterhase:


It's very revealing that the second anybody questions the absolute fucking insanity of the West's conduct in this war; the rhetoric immediately ramps up. The amount of total bullshit in this thread has - impossibly - managed to get even worse.

It's always the same. It's a moral war, blah blah blah, think of the children.

It's a stupid fucking war being sold to you by the same mob that got Biden in, managed the covid 'crisis', and wants you to drive an electric car by 2030. Or else.
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Originally Posted By Esterhase:
Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:

Totally also they send the kids mostly to Khadyrovite school. Let that sink in. Brainwashing might be too far gone. Psychiatric help isn’t really a thing there. It’s a crime against humanity. How many of the little “hohol”  boys and girl reach puberty intact? Rape being a key component of soviet manipulation. Think about that. If that doesn’t boil your blood. We haven’t even designated them a state sponsor of terrorism. Combine the worst events of soviet subversion and takfiri ideology. At least isis married you first. Here you get forced to be a Nazi and a Muslim cannon fodder. Aaaaahhhh.


It's very revealing that the second anybody questions the absolute fucking insanity of the West's conduct in this war; the rhetoric immediately ramps up. The amount of total bullshit in this thread has - impossibly - managed to get even worse.

It's always the same. It's a moral war, blah blah blah, think of the children.

It's a stupid fucking war being sold to you by the same mob that got Biden in, managed the covid 'crisis', and wants you to drive an electric car by 2030. Or else.



Nah, I’m good with finally winning the same war we have been fighting continuously since 1945:  the Cold War.  Let’s finish Russia off and do the world a favor.  After that, we:

- pivot to Asia.

China is our enemy, not our “trading partner.”

Esterhase: turn off the Tucker Carlson.  He is a Kremlin mouthpiece and a traitor to the USA.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:07:12 PM EDT
[#28]
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Originally Posted By Waldo:



Slipped on his tea.
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Originally Posted By Waldo:
Originally Posted By jungatheart:

At least, in the Russian army, you don't have
to worry about being demoted.



Slipped on his tea.

I understood that reference.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:07:12 PM EDT
[#29]
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Originally Posted By Auto5guy:

I have suspected for quite a while that there is a calculated effort to boil the russian frog.

If in the first month of the invasion NATO had responded by sweeping into Ukraine through Poland with American and European tanks, mobile artillery, armored vehicles, anti aircraft defenses, Patriot batteries, HIMARS, current generation antitank rockets, smart munitions, ATACMS, and 4th generation fighters, russia would have absolutely gone nuclear.  Using tactical nukes as a minimum.  

By piecemealing all these items out to the UKR forces, bit by bit, one at a time over months, all the while debating and declaring each of them a reasonable measured response to russian actions, we haven't taken a single large enough step for the russians to justify going nuclear or spreading the conflict beyond current boundaries.

Yet when all is said and done all of the items I listed will eventually be in Ukraine via Poland and will be grinding russia into dust.
View Quote


The ‘ultimate frog boil’ scenario presumes that the US combined with a host of coalition partners had then, or even has now, a unified voice and the ability to act decisively and forcefully without extensive consultation.  Coalition diplomacy and warfare has historically not operated that way - even in extremis in such times as 1915 and 1940-1942.  I believe the “UFB” thesis is over-stated vs. the more mundane reality that, simply, this is how it has always been done, and will be done, when things are done through multiple sovereign democracies.

Take two examples, one within living memory for most, and one right now. The first would be to - if you can - recall the insane amount of diplomatic haggling and back-and-forth negotiations prior to the Gulf War in order to build the coalition to oust Hussein from Kuwait.  It may have slipped the mind of most by now, but that equally clear-cut aggression was not met quickly with unanimity of purpose and action. In fact, same said disunity led to decades more instability and more and costlier war.  Another example is Germany in real-time.  Scholz receives heaps of scorn, but is in fact reflecting pacifist views coupled with gross moral indifference in the German people - and which also pertains to the US to a degree.  If you think the West COULD have made a sweeping response in the early days - no.  It was not possible and it’s not possible no to build the political will to do what you proposed.  It is also HIGHLY questionable that if said UFB was at work - it would be chosen. A massive, fast response would have been better while Russia was off-guard, unprepared, and unable to take time to exert more control on its population and radicalize them with propaganda.  The UFB way in fact be a very BAD idea.

Lastly, the presumption that nuclear threats = willingness to follow through or use them is not accurate.  Russia is well aware of the consequences of nuclear first-use. First-use in a ‘luxury’ war and not a defensive one would be the end of Russia, and this is known.  It is also arguable whether that use would even work - and Russian planners know that.  The US could move two of its ABCTs into Ukraine now and there would be no nuclear response.

I would argue against the “UFB” thesis succinctly with this: which is more likely - A) There has been a grand orchestrated plan by five major powers for over a year to bring about the ultimate frog boil, or B) The same five major players - US, UK, Fr, Ger, Pol - are all muddling along trying to figure out how to deal with the unexpected.  The UFB thesis doesn’t fit with the way politics, people, and coalition warfare works.  Alternatively, it may be said in hindsight that the UFB was a by-product.  Wars have their own logic and this is likely just a case of that.  Hitler did not invade Poland in 1939 with the plan of fighting in the Libyan desert 15 months later.  The US didn’t invade Iraq in 2003 with the idea of fighting a Sunni insurgency for almost a decade more.  Sometimes there’s no great conspiracy - it’s just uncertainty playing out.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:10:01 PM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By Auto5guy:

Damn.  The F-16 is one sleek beautiful aircraft.

For a fourth generation pure dog fighter does the F-16 take a back seat to anything?  I would love to see it swat everything russia currently has from the sky and after the smoke clears park F35's in Ukraine just to say don't even think about doing this again.
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The F16 hasn't been a pure dog fighter for at least 3 decades. It's put on a lot of weight to do the multirole thing
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:11:14 PM EDT
[#31]
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Originally Posted By 74HC:
Seems like a pathetic life existence if all you do is watch for posting at the top of pages.
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I would say THAT is one of the more uninformed posts and needlessly insulting - anyone who did have knowledge would know Capta spends quite a bit of time contributing actively and not sitting around passively watching.  A little humor doesn’t hurt, and clearly not “all” he does.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:17:01 PM EDT
[#32]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This happened faster than I anticipated.




Post from the Ukrainian govt was simply this:




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Fucking great news!
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:26:21 PM EDT
[#33]
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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:

Really?  I guess that means we finally used up all of the F-4 drones...

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Yeah, the AMARG yard has been largely F4-free for 10 years or more now.  There were a few of 'historical relevance' being kept for possible museum use; I am not even sure those are still there now.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:36:03 PM EDT
[#34]
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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:




I think that's a fair point...but I know practically nothing of metallurgy, reverse-engineering stuff, etc...
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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
I'm not sure if the extreme hang-up with DU is the DU itself (depleted uranium, oh my gosh, it will kill everyone because it is so hazardous!!!!!) or the fact that we absolutely don't want any of our DU based armor to end up in enemy hands so they can come up with ways to defeat or copy it. My guess is the latter is of much greater concern and the real reason why we won't export it.




I think that's a fair point...but I know practically nothing of metallurgy, reverse-engineering stuff, etc...


I’m pretty sure someone posted schematics or blueprints of said DU panels and Chobam 2 in an internet argument over whose tank was better. Not kidding. Guys were like torrent that stuff asap before it gets taken down. I think it was an argument over who had better armor penetration but I’m not a tanker. I just found it fascinating because I did care a little about soviet/ukrainan ukrainian armor. The argument is silly now. The assumption is that opposition players like Russia China Israel have the stuff w/I 8 years of mass manufacturing.

The thing about DU isn’t secret, it’s just toxic as hell to sinter/form/process so it’s a willingness to mitigate all that and have heavy tanks that prevents more widespread use not IP. The soviets figured it wasn’t worth the weight and went to cheaper composite/alloy/spaced/ceramic armor with applicique. They could make Chobam or a derivative if the cost wasn’t so high. They have engineers that live for that too, probably more than us ans their universities anre defense related not fuzzy bunny.  And they have tested their missiles against it via proxies. Up to 2015 Russians were buying western tech from everywhere. Thales, Ruag, Giat, iveco, iWi, among many others. Money and skullduggery can get you a lot.

When we rolled into Iraq in 2003 Russian kornet crews were in Iraq. They got replaced by quods force supposedly. More than a few Ruzz contractors were lost.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:39:45 PM EDT
[#35]
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Originally Posted By Jack67:


The 'ultimate frog boil' scenario presumes that the US combined with a host of coalition partners had then, or even has now, a unified voice and the ability to act decisively and forcefully without extensive consultation.  Coalition diplomacy and warfare has historically not operated that way - even in extremis in such times as 1915 and 1940-1942.  I believe the "UFB" thesis is over-stated vs. the more mundane reality that, simply, this is how it has always been done, and will be done, when things are done through multiple sovereign democracies.

Take two examples, one within living memory for most, and one right now. The first would be to - if you can - recall the insane amount of diplomatic haggling and back-and-forth negotiations prior to the Gulf War in order to build the coalition to oust Hussein from Kuwait.  It may have slipped the mind of most by now, but that equally clear-cut aggression was not met quickly with unanimity of purpose and action. In fact, same said disunity led to decades more instability and more and costlier war.  Another example is Germany in real-time.  Scholz receives heaps of scorn, but is in fact reflecting pacifist views coupled with gross moral indifference in the German people - and which also pertains to the US to a degree.  If you think the West COULD have made a sweeping response in the early days - no.  It was not possible and it's not possible no to build the political will to do what you proposed.  It is also HIGHLY questionable that if said UFB was at work - it would be chosen. A massive, fast response would have been better while Russia was off-guard, unprepared, and unable to take time to exert more control on its population and radicalize them with propaganda.  The UFB way in fact be a very BAD idea.

Lastly, the presumption that nuclear threats = willingness to follow through or use them is not accurate.  Russia is well aware of the consequences of nuclear first-use. First-use in a 'luxury' war and not a defensive one would be the end of Russia, and this is known.  It is also arguable whether that use would even work - and Russian planners know that.  The US could move two of its ABCTs into Ukraine now and there would be no nuclear response.

I would argue against the "UFB" thesis succinctly with this: which is more likely - A) There has been a grand orchestrated plan by five major powers for over a year to bring about the ultimate frog boil, or B) The same five major players - US, UK, Fr, Ger, Pol - are all muddling along trying to figure out how to deal with the unexpected.  The UFB thesis doesn't fit with the way politics, people, and coalition warfare works.  Alternatively, it may be said in hindsight that the UFB was a by-product.  Wars have their own logic and this is likely just a case of that.  Hitler did not invade Poland in 1939 with the plan of fighting in the Libyan desert 15 months later.  The US didn't invade Iraq in 2003 with the idea of fighting a Sunni insurgency for almost a decade more.  Sometimes there's no great conspiracy - it's just uncertainty playing out.
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Ok.  I can accept that it's likely wishful thinking.  

And it's not like seeing countries like Greece offer some of their second tier stuff... if we will replace it with better stuff!, didn't demonstrate in the open to me that there is an amount of opportunism going on.

I do like your comment that wars can have there own logic.  It's how sometimes we can look back and see the hand of providence.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:39:47 PM EDT
[#36]
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Originally Posted By centex_SR-15:


Zenitco just posted this on YouTube:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/260794/C1EDBDD5-D4AC-4198-BB58-5576CA581BE7-2687255.png
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Originally Posted By centex_SR-15:
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:


The Russians are having filters for their optics and cameras that can detect active IR sources like the illuminators from cheap NVDs.

Using any device with an active IR isn't smart IMO.  






Zenitco just posted this on YouTube:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/260794/C1EDBDD5-D4AC-4198-BB58-5576CA581BE7-2687255.png


I guess china (Holosuns parent company) is selling them cores. I would love to pull the thing apart. I know Chinese parts are going in, saw it on BMD 4 of some type. Holosun discounts sales to Russia, we pay for RD.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:39:49 PM EDT
[#37]
I talked in general with the mobilized and I got a clear understanding that we were not ready for any mobilization, and most of them were commanded by just standard motherfuckers.
Let's go through the points!

1. In one of the battalions standing on the first line of defense, it was forbidden to move with weapons during the day. During the day, all weapons and ammunition must be in the weapon storage room. Let me remind you, we are talking about the first line...

2. Grenades in boxes and without fuses, you can’t walk with them, they will fuck you.

3. Yesterday an order was received for everyone to walk only in the statutory form (tactical boots are allowed, sneakers or low shoes are not allowed).

4. Phones are only taps without a camera, you don’t fucking need quadcopters, as the Fathers-commanders said.

5. Platoon commanders walk around with maps pasted on plywood, no computers or other electronics...

6. In all dugouts, propaganda corners and a wall newspaper are obligatory.

7. In places of placement, weapons should only be in the pyramid (the military police arrives to check)

8. There is almost no preparation at all.
10 standing, 10 lying, 10 sitting and that's it.

9. Everyone and everything thumps with rare exceptions.
There is no operational information. There are no summaries.
Last time, one of the fighters leaked information that humanitarian aid was being stolen, now he is in a zindan, and telephones are banned throughout the regiment.

10. From the good! The salary is paid normally and on time, in fact, at its expense, and we tighten everything from home, equipment, supplies, etc.

All the fucking that you just read is happening to our mobilized, I wrote this article after talking with the guys from one of the units, I won’t write specifically which one, because they will be punished immediately for this, but I think that they are not alone, and personally it’s not clear to me HOW THESE FUCKING COMMANDERS ARE GOING TO FIGHT SETTING ALL THIS?! COMPLETELY ALREADY FUCKED?!

If these issues are not resolved in the near future, do not remove the fuckers who arranged this, then you should know! We have a hell of a lot of problems. And if you know the commanders who arrange this on the positions, then fucking get together and send them the fuck, the main thing is not alone, but collectively. Because this is a fucking war, and you need to fight in it, and not suffer garbage.

https://t.me/Separ13_13/7397

Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:43:33 PM EDT
[#38]
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Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:


I'm pretty sure someone posted schematics or blueprints of said DU panels and Chobam 2 in an internet argument over whose tank was better. Not kidding. Guys were like torrent that stuff asap before it gets taken down. I think it was an argument over who had better armor penetration but I'm not a tanker. I just found it fascinating because I did care a little about soviet/ukrainan ukrainian armor. The argument is silly now. The assumption is that opposition players like Russia China Israel have the stuff w/I 8 years of mass manufacturing.
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There's a good chance that was a War Thunder forum. There's already been 5 or 6 leaks from former military trying to win arguments. The last one was over the F-16.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:44:37 PM EDT
[#39]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

I agree but I think the time to do that is after Ukraine wins the war.  Nukes are the incentive to stay the F out.
Frankly even if Ukraine joins NATO, which they should, Ukraine should have a nuclear deterrent force along the lines of Britain and France.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By DPeacher:



You know...  I have to agree with Donny on this one.  We should give Ukraine some nukes just to even them up with the orcs.  I bet a dozen would do, and I bet it would end the war PDQ.

I agree but I think the time to do that is after Ukraine wins the war.  Nukes are the incentive to stay the F out.
Frankly even if Ukraine joins NATO, which they should, Ukraine should have a nuclear deterrent force along the lines of Britain and France.


Ukraine could build nukes quicker than a new helicopter. Not a modern icbm (yes they could but it would be 1 year). A bomb? Maybe 3-4 months. They did it before.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:50:45 PM EDT
[Last Edit: gentlemanfarmer] [#40]
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Originally Posted By SoCalExile:
There's a good chance that was a War Thunder forum. There's already been 5 or 6 leaks from former military trying to win arguments. The last one was over the F-16.
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Originally Posted By SoCalExile:
Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:


I'm pretty sure someone posted schematics or blueprints of said DU panels and Chobam 2 in an internet argument over whose tank was better. Not kidding. Guys were like torrent that stuff asap before it gets taken down. I think it was an argument over who had better armor penetration but I'm not a tanker. I just found it fascinating because I did care a little about soviet/ukrainan ukrainian armor. The argument is silly now. The assumption is that opposition players like Russia China Israel have the stuff w/I 8 years of mass manufacturing.
There's a good chance that was a War Thunder forum. There's already been 5 or 6 leaks from former military trying to win arguments. The last one was over the F-16.


Not a gamer but yes it was a game forum or something associated with it. Just looked I think it was a tank game like war thunder but for values on  vehicles.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:51:40 PM EDT
[#41]
Amazing how some people to young to have lived through any portion of the Cold War make zero attempt to understand it.





Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:55:03 PM EDT
[#42]
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Originally Posted By theskuh:
I would of thought they were heavier. Thats not a huge drone by any means. I never have had a chance to fire an rpg so no reference on warhead weight.
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Originally Posted By theskuh:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By UKjohn:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1619031423641391104/xyNj3sP1?format=jpg&name=900x900

Are they RPG rounds



Yes, mostly modified PG-7VS to be exact, and $300 per drone.

I would of thought they were heavier. Thats not a huge drone by any means. I never have had a chance to fire an rpg so no reference on warhead weight.

They're removed quite a bit just to have the warhead for the payload. Picture for reference:

Attachment Attached File



Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:57:50 PM EDT
[#43]
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Originally Posted By Auto5guy:

Amazing how some people to young to have lived through any portion of the Cold War make zero attempt to understand it.





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I've seen that almost verboten repeated here
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 4:59:21 PM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By craig19:



You are correct.  Here is a video of the final flight. Sucks we are using F-16s for this now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s7LMuHWQrk
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Originally Posted By craig19:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By ludder093:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I think F-16's are going to be released soon. Not sure about ATACMS. The Britts could send some to break the ice so to say. They seem to have more balls than anyone but Poland.

I mean we're using them as target drones...



Really?  I guess that means we finally used up all of the F-4 drones...  


Yep.

https://i.imgur.com/0No3xpz.jpg

I believe I remember reading the F-4s were all expended more than a couple years ago.



You are correct.  Here is a video of the final flight. Sucks we are using F-16s for this now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s7LMuHWQrk



With how cheap drones are I think the days of making drones out of old fighters will come to an end. I assume we can build new cheaper purpose built target drones that require less maintenance and probably cost less overall than converting a fighter.

Which is why donating some of these to Ukraine makes sense. We probably have 50-100 F-16s that are lined up for QF-16 conversion. Old, but probably in better condition than Ukraine's Soviet era planes.
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 5:02:22 PM EDT
[#45]
Ukrainian Military Medic Reunited With Daughter Who Was Taken To Russia

Ukrainian Military Medic Reunited With Daughter Who Was Taken To Russia


Link Posted: 1/27/2023 5:11:53 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By Auto5guy:

Amazing how some people to young to have lived through any portion of the Cold War make zero attempt to understand it.





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That guy is a real POS
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 5:14:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 7empest] [#47]
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Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:

I've seen that almost verboten repeated here
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You shouldn't be surprised that guy was on Tucker.




A couple of the POSs tweets

"Leopard hunting season has opened up for the Russians."

"God will liberate Ukraine from the satanists."
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 5:17:55 PM EDT
[#48]
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 5:18:42 PM EDT
[#49]
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Originally Posted By 7empest:



You shouldn't be surprised that guy was on Tucker.

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Not surprised at all
Link Posted: 1/27/2023 5:20:03 PM EDT
[#50]
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Originally Posted By Dracster:
Ukrainian Military Medic Reunited With Daughter Who Was Taken To Russia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8fbx8OT7Wk

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Good story.



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