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MD, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:06:32 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: Obviously there is an end game to this. The bridge is not long for this world. I'd say the bridge gets blown for good the moment we tip into 75% of BSF large LSTs sunk -- so we have about 2 more ships to get hit before the bridge goes down... BUT... Conditions have to be right when the bridge drops for maximum shock effect. It all depends on how much combat power AFU can regenerate before June 2024 -- they could drop the bridge now; and it wouldn't do anything, because AFU wouldn't be able to seriously threaten Crimea; so it would be an annoyance for the Russians who'd reroute logistics over a few months to make up for the bridge loss. And if they do decide to drop the bridge, expect a multi-axis attack from everything.... Boat Drones, Kamikaze UAS, and Hrim-2 ballistic missiles all at once to confuse and overload the Russian defenders. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:08:56 AM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:09:33 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kamanya: I attended his 22 lecture series on Ukraine. He's a professor of History, speaks fluent Ukrainian, has met with both Putin and Zelenski. Has repeatedly visited Ukraine before and during this war. If anyone from the US has more credibility to debunk Putins rubbish, it'll be a very short list. "Everyone who does not fit Putin's neat story (Russia is eternal, so Russians can do whatever they want) has to be removed, first from the narrative of the past, and then from those counted as human in present." His piece is a deep dive into that world and Putins fabrications. At the very least, it's fabulous education on the actual history of that part of the world going back millennia. https://snyder.substack.com/p/putins-genocidal-myth Snyder is a great source. His History of Ukraine on Youtube is literally a college course, huge investment of time but very interesting. He tends to come across as rambling at times, however this is because he IMO genuinely tries to present the full picture and context without oversimplifying or taking lazy shortcuts. History was and is messy. Once you have the whole picture it becomes very obvious why Putin’s fantasy story is what it is, a dishonest misrepresentation of history to justify Russian imperialism. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:15:44 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By yekimak: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/66660/FB_IMG_1707892176398_jpg-3128567.JPG Stellar day killing artillery. Hope it was counter battery near Andriivka. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:18:20 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: I'd say the bridge gets blown for good the moment we tip into 75% of BSF large LSTs sunk -- so we have about 2 more ships to get hit before the bridge goes down... BUT... Conditions have to be right when the bridge drops for maximum shock effect. It all depends on how much combat power AFU can regenerate before June 2024 -- they could drop the bridge now; and it wouldn't do anything, because AFU wouldn't be able to seriously threaten Crimea; so it would be an annoyance for the Russians who'd reroute logistics over a few months to make up for the bridge loss. And if they do decide to drop the bridge, expect a multi-axis attack from everything.... Boat Drones, Kamikaze UAS, and Hrim-2 ballistic missiles all at once to confuse and overload the Russian defenders. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: Originally Posted By burnka871: Obviously there is an end game to this. The bridge is not long for this world. I'd say the bridge gets blown for good the moment we tip into 75% of BSF large LSTs sunk -- so we have about 2 more ships to get hit before the bridge goes down... BUT... Conditions have to be right when the bridge drops for maximum shock effect. It all depends on how much combat power AFU can regenerate before June 2024 -- they could drop the bridge now; and it wouldn't do anything, because AFU wouldn't be able to seriously threaten Crimea; so it would be an annoyance for the Russians who'd reroute logistics over a few months to make up for the bridge loss. And if they do decide to drop the bridge, expect a multi-axis attack from everything.... Boat Drones, Kamikaze UAS, and Hrim-2 ballistic missiles all at once to confuse and overload the Russian defenders. True, but starving an army takes time, and you can guarantee the Russians will do anything to keep logistics into Crimea going. If they lose more amphibs they’ll just start using civilian ships even if they’re ill-suited. I’m all for suckering them in further, but I don’t think you can drop the bridge and go “Aha! You’re done!” However, it won’t surprise me if Ukraine already has another ace to pull out for the anniversary. They like doing that. Kill another ship, then drop the bridge. Then they’ll HAVE to take more risks with their remaining ships, opening up even more opportunities and risking other ships to escort them. Then Ukraine reveals they can launch Harpoons from SU-27s when several ships eat them. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:20:48 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kamanya: I attended his 22 lecture series on Ukraine. He's a professor of History, speaks fluent Ukrainian, has met with both Putin and Zelenski. Has repeatedly visited Ukraine before and during this war. If anyone from the US has more credibility to debunk Putins rubbish, it'll be a very short list. "Everyone who does not fit Putin's neat story (Russia is eternal, so Russians can do whatever they want) has to be removed, first from the narrative of the past, and then from those counted as human in present." His piece is a deep dive into that world and Putins fabrications. At the very least, it's fabulous education on the actual history of that part of the world going back millennia. https://snyder.substack.com/p/putins-genocidal-myth Paywall |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:25:41 AM EDT
[#7]
 Russian drone strike sets off huge fire in Ukraine's Kharkiv Harkiv strike 4 days ago which burned about 7 people A visual representation They got to strike Kremlin, they must |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:26:22 AM EDT
[#8]
On-board cargo explosion before it sank?
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VA, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:41:38 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: Obviously there is an end game to this. The bridge is not long for this world. Assuming the Ukrainians possess a way to bring down the bridge (they're creative and have had a long time to study, so I am willing to make the assumption) ... Anybody have thoughts on the timing of that? ASAP? Right before a renewed Ukrainian southern offensive? Before a new Russian southern offensive? Some significant Russian military holiday (May Day, Victory Day, Day of Russia, ad nauseum)? |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:43:02 AM EDT
[Last Edit: jough43]
[#10]
I am curious about Musk for two reasons:
1. Starlink in Russia. Apparently the evidence is strong that Russian military IS using Starlink. Starlink's official statement is that Russia is not. One of them is wrong. Could Musk be letting them use it and then monitoring the traffic? 2. Musk saying Ukraine can't win. Do you think that is a misdirection? |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:46:08 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: I'd say the bridge gets blown for good the moment we tip into 75% of BSF large LSTs sunk -- so we have about 2 more ships to get hit before the bridge goes down... BUT... Conditions have to be right when the bridge drops for maximum shock effect. It all depends on how much combat power AFU can regenerate before June 2024 -- they could drop the bridge now; and it wouldn't do anything, because AFU wouldn't be able to seriously threaten Crimea; so it would be an annoyance for the Russians who'd reroute logistics over a few months to make up for the bridge loss. And if they do decide to drop the bridge, expect a multi-axis attack from everything.... Boat Drones, Kamikaze UAS, and Hrim-2 ballistic missiles all at once to confuse and overload the Russian defenders. Didn't see that MK. That's the kind of thing I was asking about. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 8:59:29 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Yep, sure looks like a shaping operation. They’d probably like to get another transport or two first, but 4 sunk out of 9 is a pretty serious dent. Also note that the ship appears to have been sunk on the westward leg, meaning it was full of stuff that is now sitting at the bottom of the Black Sea. Pretty amazing it was sunk on the same day its namesake died. Ukraine says the ship was fully loaded and had spent 10 days loading at an undisclosed location OK, it’s the SUN and all. However it alleges to quote a HUR source saying “Apparently, no one escaped because the hole was big and everything happened very quickly.” On the other hand: Meanwhile, according to the Rybar channel, which is close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian large landing craft is indeed hit, but the extent of its damage is unknown. The Telegram channel “Two Majors” claims that “the entire crew is alive.” Also, probable missile tantrum incoming. The last time they sunk an amphib (the Novercherkassk that blew up) Russia launched the biggest single attack since the early days of the war. I can already see some interesting possibilities for attack drones. Back up the kamikaze boats with a drone aircraft carrier. Or more practically, each kamikaze boat has a kamikaze quad in a waterproof dome. The quad is run through the kamikaze boat sat feed. When the kamikaze boats are forming up to attack, pop the dome, launch the quad, and lead with kamikaze attacks on the bridge and defensive weapons. Extra points if you paint a rising sun on the quads. Follow them in as closely as possible with the boats. Carnage ensues. Another potential use for quads is anti-helicopter. Helis are probably one of the most useful direct counters to the drone boats. How much would a heli tooling around at 60kts like a kamikaze in the cockpit? i would like to see that drone torpedo thing they have go to work. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:00:54 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jough43: I am curious about Musk for two reasons: 1. Starlink in Russia. Apparently the evidence is strong that Russian military IS using Starlink. Starlink's official statement is that Russia is not. One of them is wrong. 2. Musk saying Ukraine can't win. Do you think that is a misdirection? I don't think we can ever understand Musk. It's hard enough to understand a super-celebrity's logic because they just live in a different world than we do. It's hard to understand the philosophy of a "scientist" type -- they can be insightful or just bizarre -- they too live in their own world. Combine those at Musk's scale and he's just an enigma. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:10:55 AM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:17:35 AM EDT
[#15]
#GURinterception
‼️ "I observe an oily stain" - the occupiers confirm the destruction of "Caesar Kunikov" 👉 Intercepted radio communications of Russians from the site of the destruction of the large amphibious assault ship "Caesar Kunikov" indicate that only an "oily stain" remained from the enemy ship after the attack by the special forces of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. ✔️ Ka-52 and Mi-8 helicopters of the aggressor state perform a visual inspection of the ship sinking site. The military transport aircraft An-26 vks of the Russian Federation acts as a relay of information. "I observe wreckage and an oily stain," states the Russian pilot. ☝️ The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informs - the large amphibious ship "Cesar Kunikov" was parked near a specialized mooring wall (the so-called "blind") for ten days, from which the occupiers load ships with military weapons and equipment. ❗️ According to a preliminary visual assessment of the ship's sediment, "Caesar Kunikov" was loaded during the sinking. 🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine! https://t.me/DIUkraine/3470 |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:29:34 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BroomSlayer: And you think a majority of Republicans will care... Interesting... They care about saving OUR country. They SHOULD care more about saving our country. I care more about the USA than Ukraine. But the Rebubs cant use Ukraine as leverage because the dems care much more about finishing their power grab than some country they only use for grift. The USA has been subverted, 2020 election corrupted, and "our" POTUS removed and a senile buffoon installed to facilitate the Marxist revolution that we are witnessing. But all I can do about that is educate myself and those around me and vote. Fucking over the good people in Ukraine will do jack shit to change the situation here but if/when shit gets really bad, we should only have to worry about Chinese "peacekeepers" instead of Chinese AND Russian... Supporting Ukraine is essential for US national security, European security, and the current rules-based world order. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:33:49 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: True, but starving an army takes time, and you can guarantee the Russians will do anything to keep logistics into Crimea going. If they lose more amphibs they’ll just start using civilian ships even if they’re ill-suited. I’m all for suckering them in further, but I don’t think you can drop the bridge and go “Aha! You’re done!” However, it won’t surprise me if Ukraine already has another ace to pull out for the anniversary. They like doing that. Kill another ship, then drop the bridge. Then they’ll HAVE to take more risks with their remaining ships, opening up even more opportunities and risking other ships to escort them. Then Ukraine reveals they can launch Harpoons from SU-27s when several ships eat them. I also think GLSDB availability in sufficient quantities is essential. Drop the bridge, and the land route through Melitopol gets very busy and congested. Need to be able to hammer that corridor reliably to really cut off supply. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:34:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#18]
[Deleted]
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:36:02 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By yekimak: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/66660/FB_IMG_1707892176398_jpg-3128567.JPG I'm just catching up, so a possible Russian landing assault ship hit and 66 artillery pieces hit, as well as 4 air defense systems. This could be an interesting day. 
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:37:27 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BroomSlayer: What difference is it going to make to YOU who controls the Donbass? Or Crimea? None. Either way. We need to be concerned about preserving OUR country and way of life. The almighty Dollar. The future of OUR grandchildren. And not some Eurotrash welfare agenda to "pwn" the Russians. But I'd gladly support the Euro BS if we do #1 first. Simple. What difference did it make for England and France who controlled the Sudetenland? Or Poland for that matter? And why do we care if Taiwan is controlled by the CCP? And is Israel really worth the headache? And I've never even been to Alaska so who cares if Russia wants it. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:45:05 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BroomSlayer: And so saving Ukraine is more important than saving our own country? Millions of illegal immigrants who will grab the constitution and throw it in the trash once they can vote? I would be fine if we could do both but I'm not willing to sacrifice Independence of Europeans for the enslavement of my grandchildren to the deities of the Woke? Fuck that! I don't give a shit if the world burns after the USA is gone. My job is to preserve the USA and I have done my part. Nothing else matters in my mind. You think that Russia winning this war means the end of the USA? Just look inward, we are ending it ourselves. Faster than any Commie or Ruskie could dream brother. Good night. I generally agree if it was a binary choice. There is NOTHING the republicans can do to close the border before Jan 2025. If I (USA) have cancer (demo-commies revolution) and I'm going to my chemo treatment (2024 election) and on the way I see a friend (Ukraine) being beaten to death, do I pull my EDC (300 Abrams, 100 ATACMS, 100 F16s) and help or do I wait until I'm all healthy and cancer free a couple months/years from now? |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:47:21 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Big kaboom 💥!
Drone POV video!!
lol, absolutely no defensive fire until after the first drone hit. Lovely.
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:49:53 AM EDT
[#23]
That was quick.
 
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:52:38 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Man, 0500 and already a good day. Good job last night. #працьюегур 🔥 "Magura" destroyed "Caesar" - scouts sank a large landing ship of the Russian Federation 🫡 On February 14, 2024, the Main Directorate of Intelligence in cooperation with all components of the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed the large amphibious ship "Caesar Kunikov" of the Black Sea Fleet of the aggressor state of Russia. 🦉 The special forces of "Group 13" of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine carried out a successful mission. 🤝 Implementation of the special operation became possible with the support of the United24 platform. 💥 The enemy ship was attacked by "Magura V5" sea attack drones near the shores of the temporarily occupied Crimea near the city of Alupka. ☑️ As a result, "Caesar Kunikov" received critical holes on the left side and began to sink. It is symbolic that the Russian officer, after whom the ship was named, was killed exactly 81 years ago. ⚡️ The large amphibious ship "Caesar Kunikov" of project 775 is one of the newest Russian ships. Could accommodate 87 crew members on board. It was used by terrorist Moscow during the wars against Georgia, Syria and Ukraine. ❗️ The search and rescue operation of the occupiers was not successful. 🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine! https://t.me/DIUkraine/3469  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmQCQXfN_SU"200's" and "300's" from the large landing ship "Caesar Kunikov" are being transported on medical buses towards Sevastopol. “There are a lot of traffic police with flashing lights,” our subscribers report from the Yalta-Sevastopol highway. https://t.me/Crimeanwind/53872 Peskov refused to comment on today's attack on a Russian ship off the coast of Crimea “I suggest you rely on information from the Ministry of Defense. I can’t say anything about this.” What is it? https://t.me/Crimeanwind/53878 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGSkZ9ZWMAApnrg?format=jpg&name=medium
Once they sink a few more, then drop the Kerch bridge it is really going to hurt the Russian logistics in the South. Then the GLSDB and F-16's arrive. 
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:58:17 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By brahm: i would like to see that drone torpedo thing they have go to work. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By brahm: Originally Posted By Capta: Yep, sure looks like a shaping operation. They’d probably like to get another transport or two first, but 4 sunk out of 9 is a pretty serious dent. Also note that the ship appears to have been sunk on the westward leg, meaning it was full of stuff that is now sitting at the bottom of the Black Sea. Pretty amazing it was sunk on the same day its namesake died. Ukraine says the ship was fully loaded and had spent 10 days loading at an undisclosed location OK, it’s the SUN and all. However it alleges to quote a HUR source saying “Apparently, no one escaped because the hole was big and everything happened very quickly.” On the other hand: Meanwhile, according to the Rybar channel, which is close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian large landing craft is indeed hit, but the extent of its damage is unknown. The Telegram channel “Two Majors” claims that “the entire crew is alive.” Also, probable missile tantrum incoming. The last time they sunk an amphib (the Novercherkassk that blew up) Russia launched the biggest single attack since the early days of the war. I can already see some interesting possibilities for attack drones. Back up the kamikaze boats with a drone aircraft carrier. Or more practically, each kamikaze boat has a kamikaze quad in a waterproof dome. The quad is run through the kamikaze boat sat feed. When the kamikaze boats are forming up to attack, pop the dome, launch the quad, and lead with kamikaze attacks on the bridge and defensive weapons. Extra points if you paint a rising sun on the quads. Follow them in as closely as possible with the boats. Carnage ensues. Another potential use for quads is anti-helicopter. Helis are probably one of the most useful direct counters to the drone boats. How much would a heli tooling around at 60kts like a kamikaze in the cockpit? i would like to see that drone torpedo thing they have go to work. I am actually eagerly awaiting info on how those work as well.
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:58:18 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: LOL. Hungary is a buffer state between Europe and Russia. Ukraine IS Russia, according to Putin. Hungary, Poland, Romania, & Slovakia are the buffer states. True :( |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:01:21 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By yekimak: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/66660/FB_IMG_1707892176398_jpg-3128567.JPG Good numbers. especially IFV's and arty!! |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:04:49 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jough43: I am curious about Musk for two reasons: 1. Starlink in Russia. Apparently the evidence is strong that Russian military IS using Starlink. Starlink's official statement is that Russia is not. One of them is wrong. Could Musk be letting them use it and then monitoring the traffic? 2. Musk saying Ukraine can't win. Do you think that is a misdirection? |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:09:43 AM EDT
[#29]
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:12:30 AM EDT
[#30]
"We will not disclose the number of sea drones, but yes, they were Magura V5, we can already talk about this. So, today the Caesar Kunikov large landing ship was destroyed, approximately 4 km from the coast in the Alupka area. Of course, these are complex complex operations that take a long time to prepare, routes are tracked, data is collected,” GUR representative Andriy Yusov said. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:12:35 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Big kaboom 💥!
Drone POV video!!
Amazing! |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:16:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#32]
I can confirm, that is the aft squared tail section of a SDB I bomb, and the wing section.
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/GTGCE2K2GRB2JNJF3Z7PS3724Y.jpg) 
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:19:11 AM EDT
[#33]
Wiki says those drones are about $275k USD per pop. A single Harpoon it says $1.5 mil.
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:21:13 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#34]
  
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:21:18 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Wiki says those drones are about $275k USD per pop. A single Harpoon it says $1.5 mil. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:23:28 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Wiki says those drones are about $275k USD per pop. A single Harpoon it says $1.5 mil. Are you talking about the Ukrainian surface drone price? Remember that you pay for the speed of your shipping service of explosives to your enemy. The Harpoon moves about 600 mph and can have multiple waypoints to the target and can do sea skimming and terminal maneuvers to evade the ships weapons systems. You are paying for those features. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:25:20 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mcantu: that doesn't sound right. i think JDAMs are way less than that, or at least they used to be Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mcantu: Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Wiki says those drones are about $275k USD per pop. A single Harpoon it says $1.5 mil. If he's talking about the SDB I, they are around $30,000. I thought he was talking about the Sea Baby Ukrainian surface drones. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:26:46 AM EDT
[#38]
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:30:59 AM EDT
[#39]
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:33:12 AM EDT
[#40]
The sinking of the Cesar Kunikov today is clearly part of a larger scheme The Black Sea Fleet continues to be amputated of large supply carriers. The genocide of large amphibious ships is in full swing. Today, the already destroyed large landing ships "Minsk", "Novocherkassk", "Saratov", "Olenegorsky Gornyak" were joined by the "Cesar Kunikov". The Cesar Kunikov already escaped narrowly destruction when it was damaged in March 2022 in Berdyansk by a Tochka-U missile. As part of the enemy's Black Sea Fleet , there are still 5 landing ships available: "Azov", "Korolev", "Yamal", "Orsk", "Nikolay Filchenkov". To isolate Crimea, those would need to be destroyed together with the Kerch bridge, sever the land bridge through Mariupol and have a solution to interdict supplies through the sea of Azov. Still a lot of work but we are getting there. 
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:35:07 AM EDT
[#41]
Russian source.
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:35:21 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: lol, absolutely no defensive fire until after the first drone hit. Lovely. Nobody could expect this attack, not even the Orcs.
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:37:08 AM EDT
[#43]
Counterbattery.
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:40:32 AM EDT
[#44]
It is an interactive map you can click on each area to see more info. It shows U.S. industries replacing allied systems, requested orders of systems, and sent systems and associated business.
US Defense Industrial Base and the War in Ukraine Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. Our military aid to Ukraine is revitalizing manufacturing communities across the United States, creating good jobs here at home and restoring the United States’ capacity to produce weapons for our national defense. Helping Ukraine is the right thing to do for U.S. national security. It is also the right thing to do for American workers. https://www.aei.org/us-defense-industrial-base-and-the-war-in-ukraine/ |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:48:18 AM EDT
[#45]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/02/14/it-looks-like-russias-automated-killer-drones-did-not-work-as-planned/?sh=4252cea4785e
Russia’s Automated Killer Drones May Not Be Working As Planned Russia’s Lancet kamikaze drone has been one of their outstanding successes of the conflict. The low-cost, 35-pound loitering munition has proven especially effective at knocking out artillery, but also tanks and other targets up to 40 miles away. The Lancet was recently upgraded with a new lock-on-target mode, possibly making it the first truly autonomous battlefield weapon, able to find and engage targets without human assistance....but there’s evidence that it has not worked as well as planned, and the automated mode may have been disabled. A close examination of attack videos posted on social media suggests there was a glitch with Russia's Terminators, and may tell us why. Lancet Tactics Lancets usually operate in hunter-killer teams with specialist reconnaissance drones, also produced by ZALA, which make the Lancet. The recon team find and locate targets, passing the coordinates to the Lancet operator, who flies to the spot, confirms the target, and guides the Lancet in for the kill. However, the makers have always boasted about the Lancet’s level of on-board intelligence, and the latest upgrade appears to give a high level of autonomy. In December, military expert Mikhail Kuzovkin told the Russian TV network REN TV that target acquisition is now automatic and does not require operator input. "That is, the Lancet itself works out the program, without receiving any external target designation,” Kuzovkin stated, claiming that because it does not need a link to the operator the Lancet is now invulnerable to jamming. “The role of the operator is minimized. It's not artificial intelligence, it's computer vision. This is automatic target acquisition. That is, the device is becoming more and more autonomous,” according to an official quoted by the paper. Alexandr Zakharov, CEO of ZALA, dislikes the term AI, seeing the development as just a higher level of automation. “There is no AI in this drone, just algorithms and decision making,” Zakharov stated in an TV interview in July 2023. An examination of downed Lancets revealed that they are equipped with the NVIDIA Jetson TX2 module, an edge device designed to provide “true AI computing” to small, low-power systems like drones. The TX2 is the size of a credit card is optimized for neural network and machine learning applications with a set of highly parallel GPUs carrying out 30 trillion operations a second. The TX2 drives drones like the Skydio 2, a consumer model described as “freakishly smart” by one reviewer for its ability to plot its own flight path while following a subject and avoiding obstacles without human assistance. While the American-made TX2 in theory cannot be exported to Russia due to sanctions, it appears to be freely available on Alibaba for about $200 in batches of 100+. ZALA probably do not have too much trouble acquiring them. The question is just how effectively the TX2 can identify objects on the ground without human oversight.  Locked And Loaded Lancet attack videos are often posted on social media, giving a good idea of the sort of targets attacked – some 50% of them are artillery pieces or rocket launchers, as the Lancet’s long range making it an highly effective counter-battery tool. It also tells us what an engagement looks like from the operator’s point of view. In many Lancet video since October, during the final attack the text “Цель захвачена” (“TargetTGT -2.2% locked”) appears on screen, with a moving box which follows the target. This is familiar from modern anti-tank weapons like the Javelin, which the operator locks on to a target before launch. This “Target locked” symbol can be seen in three of the five Lancet videos here on tank and artillery targets, and in this video from January 31st showing an attack on a truck. It is not seen with more challenging camouflaged targets, which presumably still require operator involvement. What we cannot tell is whether the target identification is under the control of the operator or autonomous. “The bounding box following the target suggests the Lancet is using AI for some target recognition, but beyond that I’m not sure we can infer much,” Zak Kallenborn of CSIS's Strategic Technology Program told me. “The Jetson chip appears capable of supporting basic object recognition, but I think it's more a question of how many objects can the Lancet recognize and how reliably.” The Jetson TX2 may enable a simple seek-and-kill capability against the objects it is able to recognize. “Basic autonomy to order engagement once a target of a particular type is recognized seems unlikely to require significantly more computing power,” says Kallenborn. Samuel Bendett, an authority on Russian drones and adviser to both the CNA and CNAS, says that statements that the Lancet is either semi-automatic or fully autonomous are both current. “I have seen both claims since the MoD wants to promote this as an AI-enabled wonder weapon,” Bendett told me. However, Lancet may not be so much AI-enabled as AI-disabled. ...Not So Smart Bomb A video from January 29th shows a Lancet engaging a CV-90 infantry fighting vehicle. The familiar ‘Target locked’ sign appears, and the Lancet appears to be making a straight run at the CV-90 until it diverts at the last second. “You can see how the relatively new target acquisition system let the operator down,” notes Military Informant, the account that posted the video. “Aiming at a pile of debris instead of an enemy combat vehicle, which is why the miss occurred.” This is an example of the brittleness of AI-powered vision systems, in which they make mistakes which look ridiculously stupid to human observers. Deep-learning AIs may get confused when an object is seen from an odd angle or may be fooled by something as simple as a sticker. In an extreme case, researchers showed how an AI could be tricked into identifying a plastic turtle as a rifle. There may be many more similar misses which we have not seen, as these are not usually posted on social media. What we do know is that none of the Lancet videos from the last two weeks or so seem to have the ‘Target locked’ or the accompanying bounding box. The obvious conclusion is that automated target recognition software was rolled out prematurely and there has been product recall. While the lock was not seen before with complex and confusing shapes like camouflaged artillery, now it does not appear even with simple targets in the open like this infantry fighting vehicle or this tank, both from 3rd Feb. (It would be nice to be able to claim that this Russian T-90M hit by a Lancet was due to an out-of-control AI, but it seems this was old-school human error as the video dates from before the software upgrade.) We do not know whether Lancet’s automated recognition is a simple targeting aid, or a sign that Terminator-style robots are being deployed yet. Either way it seems to have been put off until the developers can fix some bugs and have another go; swarming drones with full autonomy are ZALA's ultimate goal as this video shows. Bendett points out that other Russian groups are developing neural network systems for small drones claimed to "accurately identify objects and equipment in Ukraine, including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles." Far more powerful modules are available than the TX2, which was rolled out in 2019. The technology is coming. Discussions on autonomous weapons continue at the UN, with optimistic plans for legally-binding international laws regulating them by 2026. By that time such weapons may already have been used on a massive scale.  Compilation of Lancet Drone Capabilities |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:54:04 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#46]
lol. This aged well.
Kunikov" last night. 
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:55:29 AM EDT
[#47]
 Crimean Bemep Have you heard about the bombing of our large landing ship? They say they transported shells from the Tambov powder factory there. So, despite the tragedy of the situation, you can notice that the shells detonate even under water! I hope that now there will be no complaints about the quality of our gunpowder. 
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:55:53 AM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:56:11 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Snyder is a great source. His History of Ukraine on Youtube is literally a college course, huge investment of time but very interesting. He tends to come across as rambling at times, however this is because he IMO genuinely tries to present the full picture and context without oversimplifying or taking lazy shortcuts. History was and is messy. Once you have the whole picture it becomes very obvious why Putin’s fantasy story is what it is, a dishonest misrepresentation of history to justify Russian imperialism. Those are my favorite instructors. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:57:52 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#50]
Pro Russian source:
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