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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: You really can't negotiate with a drone.
View Quote He forgot his stick. |
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World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By burnka871: Obviously there is an end game to this. The bridge is not long for this world. View Quote Yup…..I think they have had the means to drop the bridge for some time, they are just waiting for the magic moment to do it. Once they degrade their amphib capacity enough, they’ll do it. |
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Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident: Although I've seen some of the defensive positions prepared by Ukraine I'm not convinced that they have prepared anywhere close to the level of defenses I believe they'll need to throw back an very aggressive Russian offensive that I believe will reach its peak somewhere around late summer to early fall time frame, but will be substantial throughout. Zelensky very clearly refuses to give up positions like Adviivka, because apparently he is under the firm belief that at some point in the immediate future Ukraine is going to be able to retake the city of Donetsk, which Ukraine hasn't held since 2014. I have to say that I think that's an unreasonable expectation and goal given Ukraine's strategic outlook for the immediate future taking available and even anticipated resources into account. Holding on to salients like Avdiivka with just two remaining MSRs, one of which is now within small arms range during a section of it, just seems like a poor decision. As I think we can all agree positions along any front line need to be mutually supporting especially in the long run. With no immediate plans or seemingly capabiility to take the area around Adviivka or to use Adviivka in the near term as a position from which to mount an armored thrust narrow offensive push from I just think as difficult as it would be to give up that high ground strategic position that it might be necessary. Sadly, a lot of time in a conflict it's picking between two bad choices not one perfect choice versus one bad one. Ukraine has constructed some in-depth defenses behind Adviivka, so they're not entirely unready to deal with the loss of it. I don't think there will be some massive collapse of the Ukraine front line if they do lose it, but I'd rather at this point they withdraw in good order than end up with a collapse. Reasonable minds can differ, but that's just how I see it given the reports I've seen. I'm not a fan of Zelensky's, I don't think he's fit for the task he's been thrust into and I admit that may skew my view of the direction that man takes. Mass mobilization needs to happen. From what I understand the average age of the front line infantryman for Ukraine is 43 years old. Given the demographics of Ukraine, which mirror that of the rest of the Western world I believe it. I'm in my mid 40's and I'd be hard pressed to serve in a combat role for as long as these guys have with probably not the best rest, nutrition, and given the hard fighting with taxing counter attacks that they've been doing for months on end. I really hope that Ukraine can get their numbers up to allow for better troop rotation, because what those older guys are doing is nothing short of Herculean right now. I have seen now a number of reports featuring Ukrainian men as old as their early 50's serving on the front line and that's incredible. View Quote If you posted like this every time, you wouldn't get shit. These are perfectly reasonable criticisms, and I agree with most of them. Avdiivka has been in a somewhat perilous position since spring 2023, in terms of the risk of being encircled. It's been obvious for a while now that it will eventually fall. It's not that strategically important, and the UAF likely doesn't have the capability to take back Donetsk City at this point, at least not without having a number of Brigades incur horrible losses, and likely destroying all offensive capacity for the foreseeable future. Donetsk City itself can still easily be targeted with GMLRS (especially now that GLSDB will be in play), long range drones like the Lancet-lite system that the Ukrainians have been working on, etc. Thus, I don't really think Avdiivka is that important in the grand scheme of things. The only reason to commit more troops there, especially good units like the Third Assault Brigade, is to ensure that the retreat happens in an acceptable fashion. Is that what's happening? I don't know. I hope so, but I kind of doubt it. Throughout this war, the UAF have consistently refused to abandon positions until they become completely and utterly untenable. It's one thing to issue 'hold at all costs' orders, but it's another thing to have troops obey them consistently throughout the course of a two year war. The fact that the UAF has consistently done so says that its troops are hard as nails. However, refusing to commit to a maneuver defense and holding at all costs has resulted in significant force degradation in the UAF due to casualties. Yes, there absolutely does need to be a general mobilization. It'll be an unpopular political decision, but Russia has repeatedly made it clear what its plans for Ukraine are. On February 28, 2022 Russian-state owned Ria-Novosti news accidentally leaked an article about the Russian victory in Ukraine. In the article, they celebrate Ukraine's return to the Russian historical sphere of influence. Note that they refer to Ukrainians as 'Little Russians' here as a way to deny them a separate identity. Russian nationalists do not acknowledge Ukrainians as being a people, and a large reason why this war is occurring is the Russian nationalist belief that Ukrainians (Little Russians), Belarusians (White Russians), and Russians (Greater Russians) are all the same people. Reading between the lines, Russia wanted to annex large portions of Ukraine into Russia, and ensure that the rump state remainder would be governed by pro-Russian stooges and incorporated into the CSTO or possibly made part of the Union State between Russia and Belarus. This tracks with the RUSI report that went out yesterday, in which they claim that the Russian "peace deal" being floated would require Ukraine to give up all of the territories controlled by Russia right now, plus Kharkiv and potentially even Odessa, drop its desire to join NATO, and let Ukrainian leadership be chosen directly by the Kremlin. There will be no ceasefire or negotiations that end this war and leave Ukraine intact. This only ends with the defeat of Russia, or the defeat of Ukraine, the destruction of the current Ukrainian government, and the repression of Ukrainians as a people with the stated goal of turning back into Little Russians. Tough decisions are going to have to be made. If they don't conduct a general mobilization, they're going to cease to exist. |
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Field grade officer in the Ukebro Army
One hundred idiots make idiotic plans and carry them out. All but one justly fail. The hundredth idiot, whose plan succeeded through pure luck, is immediately convinced he's a genius. |
connoisseur of fine Soviet armored vehicles
Let's go Brandon Staff NCO in the Arfcom pro-Ukraine Army |
It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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It is called showing everyone how dangerous Russia is and how Ukrainian forces should be supported to defeat that threat. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGT62RSW0AgvX2K?format=jpg&name=900x900
View Quote My money is on something in the cyber realm. |
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Field grade officer in the Ukebro Army
One hundred idiots make idiotic plans and carry them out. All but one justly fail. The hundredth idiot, whose plan succeeded through pure luck, is immediately convinced he's a genius. |
Originally Posted By Alex9661: M777s are being repaired in Ukraine View Quote Good I could see no reason on why they couldn't do this. |
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Let us never forget, government has no resources of its own. Government can only give to us what it has previously taken from us.
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Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: My money is on something in the cyber realm. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGT62RSW0AgvX2K?format=jpg&name=900x900
My money is on something in the cyber realm. It is always my first guess. 2nd is Iran has nukes. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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God's grace is not cheap; it's free.
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Here's a Russian Media Monitor bit that's worth watching. Sergey Karagamov is a scholar and think tank guy in Russia, so he's clearly very literate even though he's a Nazi scum, not one of our regular guests. He talks about the western/US retreat from Ukraine and Russian ascendancy, and theorizes on the significance of Tucker Carlson's interview. It's a very clear message that the only interaction that Russia responds to is superior force. He also repeatedly calls for Russia to escalate conflict to assure western retreat and Russian victory.
Sergey Karaganov says that America is retreating |
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https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1757824578452172814 CNN: One of the sources who has seen the intelligence confirmed that "it is, in fact, a highly concerning and destabilizing Russian capability that we were recently made aware of" Multiple sources familiar with the intelligence characterized the intelligence as “very sensitive.” View Quote Guessing cyber.
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By RockNwood: Video
View Quote Didn't we give away hundreds of surplus MRAPs that we would never ever need again to small towns and college campuses for "security"? In some cases I believe that we paid them to take them. Maybe we can pay them to get them back as well? |
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If this is the case, I'm not very worried about the threat since we have been preparing for it for years. In for the committees over reaction to it though. Russians launched a military satellite February 9th.
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: It is always my first guess. 2nd is Iran has nukes. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGT62RSW0AgvX2K?format=jpg&name=900x900
My money is on something in the cyber realm. It is always my first guess. 2nd is Iran has nukes. I'm pretty sure it's something cyber related, but I suppose it might also be information that has been collected regarding Russia's long term goals for Eastern Europe, in order to put additional pressure on Congress to approve aid. |
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Field grade officer in the Ukebro Army
One hundred idiots make idiotic plans and carry them out. All but one justly fail. The hundredth idiot, whose plan succeeded through pure luck, is immediately convinced he's a genius. |
Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: My money is on something in the cyber realm. View Quote This is my bet as well. An IT guy I know that works for the gov't told me a couple years ago that there were codes/virus's that were planted in almost every piece of equipment (e.g. routers, computers). When I asked him how serious this was, he replied "it's about as big a deal as you can imagine". Imagine all financial and banking records vanishing one day. |
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View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGSlCpTW8AALEb2?format=jpg&name=small Crimean Bemep Have you heard about the bombing of our large landing ship? They say they transported shells from the Tambov powder factory there. So, despite the tragedy of the situation, you can notice that the shells detonate even under water! I hope that now there will be no complaints about the quality of our gunpowder. It seems more likely the Russians were blowing up a disabled drone or two. |
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Originally Posted By kpacman: This is my bet as well. An IT guy I know that works for the gov't told me a couple years ago that there were codes/virus's that were planted in almost every piece of equipment (e.g. routers, computers). When I asked him how serious this was, he replied "it's about as big a deal as you can imagine". Imagine all financial and banking records vanishing one day. View Quote The irony here is that the Russians have been paranoid about US-designed and made chips forever, and yet all of their civilian stuff runs on US-designed hardware and there are lots of instances of them using Western electronics in their military hardware. |
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World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
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Changing my guess to orbiting nuke. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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GLSDB parts found in past week in Crimea.
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Changing my guess to orbiting nuke. View Quote I have a feeling if that is true it will have some type of "glitch" soon. |
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World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
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Maybe Kliper wasn't really cancelled.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGT62RSW0AgvX2K?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGTfpWlXEAAOMHY?format=jpg&name=900x900 It is called showing everyone how dangerous Russia is and how Ukrainian forces should be supported to defeat that threat. View Quote The only thing this reporting is likely to produce is anxiety. "huge threat but we can't say what it is." |
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Just a stranger on the bus trying to find his way home.
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Originally Posted By lorazepam: I have a feeling if that is true it will have some type of "glitch" soon. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Changing my guess to orbiting nuke. I have a feeling if that is true it will have some type of "glitch" soon. There are a few toys we could employ. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
View Quote I laughed. Can you imagine how badly your bell would be ringing? |
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https://www.csis.org/analysis/cost-and-value-air-and-missile-defense-intercepts |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yeah, you can look at any Rail line map of Ukraine, and Russian logistics and advances always only go about 70km from those lines before stalling out. Once you destroy their ability to resupply from those lines, their system breaks down. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident: Amazing how Russia is still as much as it was under Stalin dependent on rail for logistics. Hopefully there are and will be some serious sabotage operations behind enemy lines to disrupt Russian rail to the maximum extent possible. Yeah, you can look at any Rail line map of Ukraine, and Russian logistics and advances always only go about 70km from those lines before stalling out. Once you destroy their ability to resupply from those lines, their system breaks down. This was lengthly dicussed 3000 pages ago. The ~60km logistics is their doctrine since WW2. 2 hours of driving, 4 hours of loading respectively unloading, 2 hours driving - 3 tours a day. |
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„From a place you will not hear, comes a sound you will not see.“
Thanks for the membership @ toaster |
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yesterday, this was listed as a Russian ammunition dump hit, but a few seconds of extra video shows that it was two Russian MLRS systems going into low earth orbit.
View Quote WOW. There went a fully loaded GRAD! |
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Originally Posted By lorazepam: I have a feeling if that is true it will have some type of "glitch" soon. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Changing my guess to orbiting nuke. I have a feeling if that is true it will have some type of "glitch" soon. “Struck by space junk” |
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Originally Posted By Capta: WOW. There went a fully loaded GRAD! View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yesterday, this was listed as a Russian ammunition dump hit, but a few seconds of extra video shows that it was two Russian MLRS systems going into low earth orbit.
WOW. There went a fully loaded GRAD! Shockwave looks thermobaric. I’m guessing loaded TOS-1 |
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Originally Posted By jungatheart: The only thing this reporting is likely to produce is anxiety. "huge threat but we can't say what it is." View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By jungatheart: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGT62RSW0AgvX2K?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGTfpWlXEAAOMHY?format=jpg&name=900x900 It is called showing everyone how dangerous Russia is and how Ukrainian forces should be supported to defeat that threat. The only thing this reporting is likely to produce is anxiety. "huge threat but we can't say what it is." I agree, and I am sure I am going to have to calm a few people down in my daily real life engagements the next few days. I am not currently worried about any of this. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By kbi: Been looking for this one for a while Zsu-23 used to clear out forest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McSgJB6ZYGI View Quote "Only we can prevent forests"....#not smokey the bear |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Got another Russian drone operation team.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGP6ktKWYAE6vTx?format=jpg&name=small View Quote |
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MADE IN ENGLAND
By usptac: Sadly, there are mass graves all over Europe, full of the wrong people. by sherrick13 Shit, you Brits would stir shit up just to keep the others off balance. |
Remorse is for the dead
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Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: This was lengthly dicussed 3000 pages ago. The ~60km logistics is their doctrine since WW2. 2 hours of driving, 4 hours of loading respectively unloading, 2 hours driving - 3 tours a day. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident: Amazing how Russia is still as much as it was under Stalin dependent on rail for logistics. Hopefully there are and will be some serious sabotage operations behind enemy lines to disrupt Russian rail to the maximum extent possible. Yeah, you can look at any Rail line map of Ukraine, and Russian logistics and advances always only go about 70km from those lines before stalling out. Once you destroy their ability to resupply from those lines, their system breaks down. This was lengthly dicussed 3000 pages ago. The ~60km logistics is their doctrine since WW2. 2 hours of driving, 4 hours of loading respectively unloading, 2 hours driving - 3 tours a day. Yes, but others joining in haven't seen the pattern we discussed 3000 pages ago or know Soviet doctrine so refreshers are useful. So next step is to wreck logistics 150 km deep, and complicate their supply to the front 4x. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I agree, and I am sure I am going to have to calm a few people down in my daily real life engagements the next few days. I am not currently worried about any of this. View Quote My county has zero traffic lights, pretty rural. Unless they are targeting livestock, the lazers in space won't be aimed here. |
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World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
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Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: The Dems have mucked up supporting Ukraine and are trying to pass the blame buck, relying on the Republicans Oppositional Defiance Disorder to provide them for an excuse to fail at both the border and Ukraine. View Quote Yes. Xiden went in slow and soft counting on Ukraine folding quickly then getting back to business. Then continued with minimal support and idiotic ROE probably agreed upon with Putin to avoid ESCALATION. Fucking cowards. Then the idiot Republicans come along saying "hold my beer" and attack Xiden from the exact wrong direction, inexplicably wanting less (or no) aid to Ukraine instead of taking the obvious high ground and demanding we let Ukraine kick Russia's ass. It's mind boggling. |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
View Quote Love seeing Russian IFVs self-dissassemble. |
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When Ukraine drops the bridge, they will have to make sure they destroy the pylons supporting the bridge. Just hitting the bridge deck is ok, but it can be patched. Dropping the support structure ensures a long time till it would be able to be used.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: You really can't negotiate with a drone.
View Quote You can negotiate with the human operator behind the drone, but that might be easier if you weren’t destroying their country and they really, really want to see you dead. I feel entertainment is probably the best option. Maybe try a dance routine? Michigan J. Frog - "Hello My Baby" Bugs Bunny entertains the Doctors How could you blow up someone after that? |
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Originally Posted By lorazepam: My county has zero traffic lights, pretty rural. Unless they are targeting livestock, the lazers in space won't be aimed here. View Quote They always use an out-of-the way place for the earth-shattering kaboom as a demonstration before the surrender ultimatum. |
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Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: The Dems have mucked up supporting Ukraine and are trying to pass the blame buck, relying on the Republicans Oppositional Defiance Disorder to provide them for an excuse to fail at both the border and Ukraine. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By BroomSlayer: Trouble? No just the facts. The young conservatives in this country don't give a rat's ass about saving the world, they just want to save this country. If you fellas think there is going to be a Neocon revival in the Republican party over the battle in Congress over Ukraine aide, well just try not to be too disappointed. A majority of Republicans disapprove. Afterall, nothing has been done over our border and you want the House to give away it's only leverage cause of Ukraine. What leverage? The dems care less about Ukraine aid then they do about the border. They will NEVER secure the border as long as they hold any power over it. The Dems have mucked up supporting Ukraine and are trying to pass the blame buck, relying on the Republicans Oppositional Defiance Disorder to provide them for an excuse to fail at both the border and Ukraine. Exactly the Rs would be better off politically to actually do nothing and claim “We need a majority in both Houses”, and let the Dems get the blame for all policy failures. Instead they have to run ahead of the train wreck to wrest blame out of the Dem hands and wrap themselves in ineptitude and obstruction. |
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“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.”
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New Video of HIMARs Strikes:
Ukrainian Drones Pounding Russian Infantry: Ukrainian Avenger SAM Barely Misses Russian Lancet: Video from the Gunner of a Ukrainian Bradley: Footage from Ukrainian 95th Artillery Brigade: |
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Ukrainian Border Guards Take Out Another Russian Field Gun and More:
Dropping Shells onto Russian Supply Lines Russian APC Flames Out: Detonation of Two Russian Grad Launchers Watching Ukrainian Drones Smashing into Russian Warship from a Distance: |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: There are a few toys we could employ. https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/uzZ6MwWNsG6FdySFoqakFc-970-80.gif View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Changing my guess to orbiting nuke. I have a feeling if that is true it will have some type of "glitch" soon. There are a few toys we could employ. https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/uzZ6MwWNsG6FdySFoqakFc-970-80.gif Bet we have some relevant X37 payloads on the shelf. Or at least the blueprints. |
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