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Posted: 2/18/2024 8:56:13 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DPeacher: Here's my 2 cents. Demilling ordnance here may very well cost less than shipping it to Ukraine, but it doesn't kill any Russians. It was purchased and made to kill Russians. The additional cost of sending it to Ukraine to kill Russians today is far cheaper than sending it and Americans to Europe to kill Russians in 5 to 15 years. 100% this!!! |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 9:27:31 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: I believe it's through one month and if you subtract those losses out of the Oryx list it's a majority of losses. May be a minority of the whole dataset was known. Either way Ukrainians on the ground find Lancet to be the biggest threat, which has changed how they fight. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By planemaker: The report you posted talks about one month in June of 2023. The question is, since the war has been going on for almost 2 years, how much of Ukraine's losses have been to Lancets? The published reports indicate not that many and certainly not the bulk of them. As such, it is not strategic in any sense. You simply don't believe that and that's OK but the facts are what they are. I believe it's through one month and if you subtract those losses out of the Oryx list it's a majority of losses. May be a minority of the whole dataset was known. Either way Ukrainians on the ground find Lancet to be the biggest threat, which has changed how they fight. "As per a comprehensive assessment from Lostarmour, a Russia-based intelligence analysis website that relies on publicly accessible sources, Lancet suicide drones have conducted a total of 507 assaults on various Ukrainian weaponry since their deployment commenced in July 2022." The other source just links to this Oryx list from 11/22 - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/11/hit-or-miss-russian-loitering-munition.html The issue that changed their strategy over summer 2023 during the offensive according to the original report he posted was that those numbers were increased in that period, exemplified by the 18 krabs in one month, and the specific reason given was the depletion of RU artillery and other counter battery at that time. If that latter was the case, then saying the drones caused more losses when that's all they had isn't the same as saying they were more effective. It is not indicated that before the offensive they were the primary concern, or that it has been sustained since. The comments regarding it being the primary threat are from a 6/23 citation. It also states it was better to change strategy particularly when trying to support an offensive while lancets were high and counter battery was low. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 9:29:07 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: This is why this thread is always so far off from reality. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By sywagon: Wait, I thought UA had no drones and RU had all the EW. How is this possible? This is why this thread is always so far off from reality. While I certainly appreciate your perspective and input, that’s an ugly thing to say. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/18/2024 9:29:13 PM EDT
[#4]
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/18/2024 9:31:44 PM EDT
[#5]
"The Russians are just using the T-55 because it's small and fast. tHeY sTiLl HaVe PlEnTy Of ThE gOoD tAnKs In ReSeRvE!!1!"
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Posted: 2/18/2024 9:34:20 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: "The Russians are just using the T-55 because it's small and fast. tHeY sTiLl HaVe PlEnTy Of ThE gOoD tAnKs In ReSeRvE!!1!" lol, I thought they were supposed to be stand in artillery pieces. 
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Posted: 2/18/2024 9:43:30 PM EDT
[Last Edit: trapsh00ter99]
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Watching this now myself. We have been waiting for this video interview that has a couple of our guys visiting Garandthumb.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tge7YMi4gJs |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 9:50:30 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mercersfinest4: While I certainly appreciate your perspective and input, that’s an ugly thing to say. The truth often isn't pretty. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:09:04 PM EDT
[#9]
ISW assessment for February 18th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-18-2024 |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:13:02 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Part of that is true and part is not. I would agree that Russia has been and is ahead in the following areas: Division-level LR spotters like Orlan-10, available in large numbers and good enough LR (over 20KM) kamikaze fixed-wings - Lancet Shahed “drone cruise missiles” 100% courtesy of Iran. Where Ukraine has been and is ahead, at least in implementation Small daytime hobby-grade spotters/droppers deployed widely at the small-unit level Short-range (sub 10KM) kamikaze quads Small thermal quads “Baba Yaga” large thermal octocopters The question of state support/production scaling is not as straightforward as you suggest. Russian sources, including highly credible technical sources like Murz, are saying that the Ukrainian decentralized model is superior for adapting rapidly to changing conditions and manufacturing customized drones to a new radio spec on request, where Russia is pumping out more drones from centralized factories, which are frequently useless because the “spec of the month” has already passed them by in the current jamming environment. That statement was posted maybe 15 pages ago. Both sides are trying to equalize their weaknesses: -Ukraine is developing LR kamikazes, both fixed-wing and quads with repeaters. -Ukraine is now fielding several Shahed-analogs. Notably, Russia is probably far more vulnerable to these. Oil is very flammable, grain is not. -Russia is scaling production of small thermal quads -Russia is also trying to catch up at least nominally with Ukrainian integration of drones into small units. Again people like Murz say that’s a very mixed bag in reality, with corruption and bureaucratic stovepiping standing in the way a lot of the time. In a couple of years rotation of infantry will be sheer hell. This seems to be a very accurate assessment. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:21:06 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Well, I am impressed. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Everyone on the internet is a SME. Myself... I once opened a box of pop-tarts for Bjarne Stroustrup. Thus my mastery of Object Oriented Programming. Well, I am impressed. In my programming days I would have “done things” to get that close to him!! And be proud of it! |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:21:25 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: M-SHORAD is a vehicle which is supposed to use stinger block II, which doesn't exist yet. There is no other replacement for stinger and we can't make any more Block I's, only refurb old ones which were pretty much complete with. We already have a simultaneous action by Iran which is eating up air defense at a rapid rate, which timed it's full blown start conveniently and immediately after the international critisism started over the failed Ukrainian offensive. So there's that. Without getting into National Secrets, what role does the Stinger play in our National Security? Serious question. I read here that it is 90's tech and we haven't procured any since then. Why? Are Stinger gunners needed to shoot down Russian Khinzals or Chinese supersonics? I'd rather Ukraine use them to down some KA52's or even Shaheeds. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:23:17 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: The Increment 3 is the vehicle since they don't currently have stingers to put in it. The actual missile it will use is the Stinger Block II. The current SHORAD battalion(s) are using ancient Avengers with Block I Stingers The daily OWA strikes against US forces in Iraq, Jordan, and Syria are what are eating up the finite resources we are giving away with no viable replacement plan. However, it all adds up. We could legitimately end up in Iran or Korea in a month and would have some major issues that we can't wait until 2027 to solve. OK you answered my question but why haven't we procured any Stingers since the 90's? |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:23:53 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: From the Munich Security Conference by AP:Vance fail the same test I've offered in this thread and others in GD: What would induce Putin to negotiate? When western aid is in decline, when Russian troops are advancing (slowly and at large cost, but advancing), why would Putin negotiate? He is correct that western industry is stretched, but that doesn't justify a Ukrainian surrender. Also, Europe & US have no business offering Ukrainian land for peace. Vance is in the Neville Chamberlain fan club. Here's a counterpoint from the conference: ETA - I did not know the director of the FBI was an invited speaker at the MSC. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: From the Munich Security Conference by AP: A Republican opponent of new U.S. funding for Ukraine argued at an international security conference Sunday that the package stuck in Congress wouldn’t “fundamentally change the reality” on the ground and that Russia has an incentive to negotiate peace. ... “I think what’s reasonable to accomplish is some negotiated peace,” he said, arguing that Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. all have an incentive to come to the table now and that the two-year-old war will at some point end in a negotiated peace. Here's a counterpoint from the conference: Ricarda Lang, a co-leader of one of Germany’s governing parties, the Greens, responded that Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown repeatedly “that he has no interest in peace at the moment.” ... If Putin wins, “he, but also other forces like China, are going to learn that it’s possible to just change borders and that NATO is not going to hold it against us,” Lang added. That would lead to “a world with less security, and … a world with less freedom for the EU but also for the U.S.” ETA - I did not know the director of the FBI was an invited speaker at the MSC. Totally agree. The only peace Putin is interested in is Ukraine laying down arms and exposing its belly. Nah dog. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:32:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Without getting into National Secrets, what role does the Stinger play in our National Security? Serious question. I read here that it is 90's tech and we haven't procured any since then. Why? Are Stinger gunners needed to shoot down Russian Khinzals or Chinese supersonics? I'd rather Ukraine use them to down some KA52's or even Shaheeds. Well for one, our boys need them right now to shoot down KAS-04's and Shaheds in Iraq and Syria, ideally out of Avengers. If we end up in Iran or Korea, we will need them for a whole lot of other things. The whys of this are an endless finger pointing game, but essentially we were looking to downsize ADA during GWOT and the Air Force agreed to pick up short and medium range air defense and Army sticks to strategic systems like Patriot and THAAD. We stopped buying Stingers and nuked Hawk for good. Then one day the Air Force said they were just joking and we had better get our SHORAD game back up. I was in a unit with one of the last enlisted SNCOs from SHORAD still in service and it was a complete shitshow. Then Group 3 drones appeared on the threat horizon. The Air Force quickly cut out Group 3 from their responsibilities and the Army ended up with Groups 1-3 (0-1320 lbs) for Counter Small UAS with little to no means to mitigate them. So the scramble for SHORAD started, but before we could even get new missiles developed we started needing them again. Then we started giving them away by the thousands as well. Bottom line, we cannot give away what we do not have the ability to replace. This is most especially applicable when we have real world threats our troops can be exposed to as a result. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:41:37 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: Since we're on demil/transport costs... Back in Feb 2015, DOD had 529,000~ tons of conventional ammo awaiting destruction, with another 582,700~ tons scheduled to arrive from FY2016 to FY2020. DOD officials said in FY2015 it costs about $2,000/ton to demil conventional ammo; versus $42/ton to store it. At 20 rounds of 155mm/ton; that's $100 per round to demil conventional 155 in FY2015, or about $130 today in 2024. By contrast, in 2009 DOD officials said they estimated it would cost $2.2B to demil 5 million cluster rounds of all types. Today that cost would be $3.2B; or about $642 per round. SHIPPING Back in 2015, it cost the USN about $500 to $1000/ton to ship ammo from depots in the US to the various Naval Munitions Commands; and from there on about $1.66/ton per mile in shipping costs. Since it's about 4,800~ miles from Port of Norfolk to Port of Hague, NL; the costs per ton once we adjusted for inflation from 2015 to 2024 would be about $13,100~/ton; broken up as: $1400 to ship from depots in US to Norfolk via rail (+ markup for handling costs) $10,300 to ship from Norfolk to Netherlands via ship $1400 to ship from Netherlands to Ukraine via rail (+ markup for handling costs) As before; at 20 rounds of 155mm/ton; that's $655/round roughly to ship from USA to Ukraine. Hey you know.... That's pretty much parity with the cost of demilling DPICM rounds in the US. So simply send the 471,726 tons of cluster munitions we had in depots as of 2015 to Ukraine and demil it on Russians. 10:10 Thank you. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:44:13 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: "The Russians are just using the T-55 because it's small and fast. tHeY sTiLl HaVe PlEnTy Of ThE gOoD tAnKs In ReSeRvE!!1!" How long has it been since someone said the good equipment and troops are on their way and they are going to take Kyiv? |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:50:27 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By birdbarian: How long has it been since someone said the good equipment and troops are on their way and they are going to take Kyiv? Just wait til the T34s show up en masse. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:50:29 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Evintos: I understand the sentiment of the tweet, but I think it's a little too simple minded. Had US not been directly involved (rather than mere "assistance"), the Russian language would've been the dominant language from Eastern Europe all the way to the English Channel post Nazi Germany defeat. If you were of the belief that lend-lease efforts played a critical role and vital in the defeat of the Axis powers, then accept that the current value given in aid given to Ukraine by the combined "Allied" (NATO) forces is not enough. The equivalent value required that Ukraine would need is over $1T ($50B WW2 lend-lease adjusted for 2024 inflation). The question that appears is - is $1T is even enough in a modern war against a "superpower" nation? The next question becomes, is there even $1T worth of equipment/aid available for Ukraine without severely compromising US national defense? The question after that becomes, if there isn't enough available to lend or give that would advance US national/strategic interests, at what point is direct US involvement necessary since what can be essentially considered a pittance given to Ukraine be counter productive to US national well-being (especially considering we're trillions in debt already)? The final question is, how long can Ukraine hold out with any aid coming in at a pace of a trickle? Edit - to add some more color, the US spent $2.3T for the war on Afghanistan with estimations of true costs being upwards of $8T; and the war was fought not against a "superpower." Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Evintos: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Ben Hodges is so spot on. Rather than letting our fears guide us we should be grabbing this opportunity. I like how he puts it into perspective that Russia planned this war for years and has had 10 years now and only has 18% of Ukraine to show for it. In contrast to Hodges here is a legitimate hero in aviation giving voice to the fear in 1940. Not much different than what we hear today across Europe, and the US and here on ARF in regards to Russia and Ukraine. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5825-3133449.jpg Video of a speech in which he claims London cannot be defended so we should stay out of the war.
I understand the sentiment of the tweet, but I think it's a little too simple minded. Had US not been directly involved (rather than mere "assistance"), the Russian language would've been the dominant language from Eastern Europe all the way to the English Channel post Nazi Germany defeat. If you were of the belief that lend-lease efforts played a critical role and vital in the defeat of the Axis powers, then accept that the current value given in aid given to Ukraine by the combined "Allied" (NATO) forces is not enough. The equivalent value required that Ukraine would need is over $1T ($50B WW2 lend-lease adjusted for 2024 inflation). The question that appears is - is $1T is even enough in a modern war against a "superpower" nation? The next question becomes, is there even $1T worth of equipment/aid available for Ukraine without severely compromising US national defense? The question after that becomes, if there isn't enough available to lend or give that would advance US national/strategic interests, at what point is direct US involvement necessary since what can be essentially considered a pittance given to Ukraine be counter productive to US national well-being (especially considering we're trillions in debt already)? The final question is, how long can Ukraine hold out with any aid coming in at a pace of a trickle? Edit - to add some more color, the US spent $2.3T for the war on Afghanistan with estimations of true costs being upwards of $8T; and the war was fought not against a "superpower." Two points: 1) Your post has a lot of assumptions such as Ukraine would need as much lend lease aid as we have in WW2 (total? UK? Russia?). Current day Russia is 3/4 the population of WW2 USSR. War time Germany had millions mobilized. This makes no sense for comparison at all. 2). Regardless of the numbers, every weapon in Europe would be 10x more effective NOW in Ukraine while Russia is limited to 140 million population and its military halved by the lackluster aid to date than it will be a few years from now when Germany or France decides it time to stop Russia in Poland or worse. The best use of Europe’s active duty weapons is right now to help Ukraine. Otherwise there is a chance Ukraine fails and WW3 gets rolling in 3-5 years. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 10:50:36 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu:  I am not a subject matter expert. Like most people, I'm pretty unaware of many details about the state of US military & industry. I knew US industry had suffered a great deal in the last 25 years of globalism, but the extent of it shocked me. R0N, Daemon & others have said we shouldn't send stuff to Ukraine, because we can't spare that much and might need it in the future. I disagreed, believing that there are moral and geopolitical reasons to take these risks and make these sacrifices/tradeoffs. But what's really valuable is that we've all seen western military industry exposed as completely hollow and deficient, unable to fulfill the needs of major war. People talk tough about China, that we'd quickly crush them in a military conflict. That view is a lot of bias and ignorance. The reality is that anybody that can withstand the first week of US military action and still retain fighting ability would then have increasing advantage, because we'd start running out of munitions with an industry that cannot quickly replace them. The good news is that now everybody knows this (or should), and moves are being made to increase capacity. Probably not enough, but it's progress. Russia's entire war capacity after the first month of action was drawn from their Cold War store. The US does not have that base. We've scrapped old vehicles & munitions. Russia just opens another warehouse and ships more stuff to the front, a virtually endless supply of guns, armor, rockets, missiles, shells, etc. Now they're starting to run out of things, so the next 12-18 months will be even more interesting than the last. It's also why Russia is starting to push even harder. I'm just rambling now, sorry.    10:10 ramble. A future peer war will be a "come as you are" war. As you said, after the first week or so of furious missile launches it will take years to replace the expenditures. The country with most depth will have a huge advantage. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 11:07:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: OK you answered my question but why haven't we procured any Stingers since the 90's? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By daemon734: The Increment 3 is the vehicle since they don't currently have stingers to put in it. The actual missile it will use is the Stinger Block II. The current SHORAD battalion(s) are using ancient Avengers with Block I Stingers The daily OWA strikes against US forces in Iraq, Jordan, and Syria are what are eating up the finite resources we are giving away with no viable replacement plan. However, it all adds up. We could legitimately end up in Iran or Korea in a month and would have some major issues that we can't wait until 2027 to solve. OK you answered my question but why haven't we procured any Stingers since the 90's? 2002. At the time, we were GWOT-focused and UAS systems were not considered a big threat in the 2000's. SHORAD ADA was considered obsolescent, and 8 of our ten Short-Range ADA Active Duty battalions were inactivated to free up personnel and assets for additional Cavalry squadrons. Not until around 2008 did SENTINEL radar become a priority again when Brigade Combat Teams in Iraq stated to demand them for Airspace Surveillance, since they are a quick way to deconflict airspace in a pinch and most of the better Brigade/Battalion commanders determined very quickly that knowing what was flying around over them was a good thing. Around 2011-ish, the Fires Center at Fort Sill started to launch red-star clusters on the threat of UAV's (later changed to UAS for Unmanned Aerial Systems). Needless to say, everyone thought this was a good thing; the problem is big, as UAS range from little tiny things that can fit in the palm of your hand and fly at around 50' max to stuff that is the size of a commuter airliner that flies at up to 60,000ish feet. Needless to say, we developed a lot of cool things; getting them funded was another issue. One problem we had with getting STINGER upgraded was that it was seen as an "old" system that was borderline obsolescent and the amounts we were allowed to SLEP (service-life extension program) was limited to the # required for US needs and certain allies for 15 years. At the time, we had a stockpile of above four figures of STINGER and the plan was to demil the excess (which is where, along with some FA munitions, I learned about demil costs). It didn't help that we had an administration at the time (Obama) that wanted to get rid of all cluster munitions and MANPAD systems because those are icky.
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Posted: 2/18/2024 11:14:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#22]
Double Tap
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VA, USA
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Posted: 2/18/2024 11:26:43 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: 10:10 ramble. A future peer war will be a "come as you are" war. As you said, after the first week or so of furious missile launches it will take years to replace the expenditures. The country with most depth will have a huge advantage. And the US hasn't really needed depth since the Cold War ended. We've been arguing right here about the cost to destroy all these deteriorating unused rounds. Keeping technologically ahead of everyone with a limited investment in build-out has been a good idea. I mean, jeez, Putin can't even take all of Donets after 2 years (or is it 10?). And China still hasn't attacked anyone since 1979. And who would have predicted 10 years ago China would be willing to throw away the greatest economic machine since Dutch textiles? I can just barely imagine the blank stares in a Senate committee meeting if you argued "We need to stockpile missiles because of China's one-child policy!" Hopefully we can see that the likelihood of various futures is changing and adjust. We seem to have gotten the message on artillery rounds, upping to 80,000 per month (supposedly). Hopefully we'll see analogies to missiles and naval "stuff." It's hard for a democracy to invest in huge arms stockpiles and especially unused production lines "just in case." It's easier to get re-elected if you give everyone free ice cream. |
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IN, USA
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Posted: 2/18/2024 11:26:48 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Evintos]
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Two points: 1) Your post has a lot of assumptions such as Ukraine would need as much lend lease aid as we have in WW2 (total? UK? Russia?). Current day Russia is 3/4 the population of WW2 USSR. War time Germany had millions mobilized. This makes no sense for comparison at all. You don't think the comparison is fair? US spent how much fighting the Taliban, a technologically inferior fighting force. Ukraine is now facing a technologically similar level fighting force and you think it'd cost less to fight better than or at a bare minimum on par? 2). Regardless of the numbers, every weapon in Europe would be 10x more effective NOW in Ukraine while Russia is limited to 140 million population and its military halved by the lackluster aid to date than it will be a few years from now when Germany or France decides it time to stop Russia in Poland or worse. The best use of Europe’s active duty weapons is right now to help Ukraine. Otherwise there is a chance Ukraine fails and WW3 gets rolling in 3-5 years. Best of Europe's and US weapons isn't helping Ukraine at a 10x effective rate if the best of weapons isn't even going to Ukraine or have significantly limitations on their usage. Your assumption that that western weapons in practical usage is the equivalent of a 10x effective rate in comparison to Russia's weapons having low effectiveness is naive. If that is the case, the Russian casualties would be at least 5x higher (it's not, current numbers are 3x if you were to believe estimates of 120k casualties to 360k casualties being official estimates put out by US and other western sources) than Ukraine and Ukraine would've retaken the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist regions at 10x effective rate. Instead we see "shitty" Russian low tech artillery and rocket barrages causing casualties in practical use and shitty cheap chipset guided weaponry doing enough effective damage. The reality of what people who pay attention see is minimal ground retaken in the 2023 counter offensive and Ukrainians currently losing ground. There's too many limitations on the aid. Ukraine could've disrupted a significant part of the Russian logistics train using long range weaponry but you have policies such as ""I can't say that with definitiveness right this minute, but I can say that we have asked the Ukrainians not to use U.S.-supplied equipment for direct attacks into Russia." - Gen Miley https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-shouldnt-use-us-arms-inside-russia-us-general-says-2023-05-25/ Unless you're making the argument that a numerically small amount of aid to Ukraine is enough to defeat the Russians, in which case, I disagree even if Ukraine shifts their tactics into a nation wide insurgency. Insurgency does not guarantee Ukrainian victory and would also mean Russia would occupy a significant amount of Ukrainian territory. The nation of Russia is right next door and can maintain operations as an occupying force for a significantly lower cost and Russian tactics would suppress dissent amongst the non-fighting populace. Ukraine needs more aid and faster; an amount that western nations are not capable of giving or perhaps unwilling to give and an amount I think too many underestimate. An estimate that I put equivalent to US costs in Afghanistan or US Lend-Lease Act value in WW2 (adjusted for inflation). On top of that, any amount that is given needs to have restrictions of usage removed. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/18/2024 11:34:55 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: If that were in fact true, then why are we seeing far more Russian artillery pieces being attritted then Ukraine ones? Seems based on the numbers that the Lancets haven't been the major player in Ukrainian losses. We have no idea what Ukraine's losses are. They don't reveal any numbers, and we don't trust Russian numbers. Seeing that citation by Daemon is pretty helpful and informative. I knew Lancets were by far the most successful Russian hardware out there, but I had no quantity to put to it. And I don't have a sense either of what gets credit for all the Ukrainian kills of Russian arty - drones, arty, GMLRS, ATGM, etc? |
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IN, USA
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Posted: 2/18/2024 11:51:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Evintos]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: We have no idea what Ukraine's losses are. They don't reveal any numbers, and we don't trust Russian numbers. Seeing that citation by Daemon is pretty helpful and informative. I knew Lancets were by far the most successful Russian hardware out there, but I had no quantity to put to it. And I don't have a sense either of what gets credit for all the Ukrainian kills of Russian arty - drones, arty, GMLRS, ATGM, etc? Click To View Spoiler The officials they're referring to are US officials and the article was Aug 2023. No clue if you can trust these numbers either, but the ratio of personnel casualty figures could potentially be used for a general idea of equipment losses as well. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html Non-paywall link Link below for potential ratio comparison for equipment losses. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19015 Click To View Spoiler |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/18/2024 11:52:30 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Well for one, our boys need them right now to shoot down KAS-04's and Shaheds in Iraq and Syria, ideally out of Avengers. If we end up in Iran or Korea, we will need them for a whole lot of other things. The whys of this are an endless finger pointing game, but essentially we were looking to downsize ADA during GWOT and the Air Force agreed to pick up short and medium range air defense and Army sticks to strategic systems like Patriot and THAAD. We stopped buying Stingers and nuked Hawk for good. Then one day the Air Force said they were just joking and we had better get our SHORAD game back up. I was in a unit with one of the last enlisted SNCOs from SHORAD still in service and it was a complete shitshow. Then Group 3 drones appeared on the threat horizon. The Air Force quickly cut out Group 3 from their responsibilities and the Army ended up with Groups 1-3 (0-1320 lbs) for Counter Small UAS with little to no means to mitigate them. So the scramble for SHORAD started, but before we could even get new missiles developed we started needing them again. Then we started giving them away by the thousands as well. Bottom line, we cannot give away what we do not have the ability to replace. This is most especially applicable when we have real world threats our troops can be exposed to as a result. OMG. So not only did we not have adequate inventory for major conflict, AND industry supply deficiency, but ALSO service finger-pointing and leadership screwups??? I'm trying to think back to a time when the US was more underprepared for war, and having a hard time doing it. I feel for guys like you & Carmel that have been trying to talk sense to institutions that are so bound up in NOT thinking that there's nobody who CAN listen. That's the impression I'm left with. Antonio Salazar for President. |
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Posted: 2/18/2024 11:53:36 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: We have no idea what Ukraine's losses are. They don't reveal any numbers, and we don't trust Russian numbers. Seeing that citation by Daemon is pretty helpful and informative. I knew Lancets were by far the most successful Russian hardware out there, but I had no quantity to put to it. And I don't have a sense either of what gets credit for all the Ukrainian kills of Russian arty - drones, arty, GMLRS, ATGM, etc? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By planemaker: If that were in fact true, then why are we seeing far more Russian artillery pieces being attritted then Ukraine ones? Seems based on the numbers that the Lancets haven't been the major player in Ukrainian losses. We have no idea what Ukraine's losses are. They don't reveal any numbers, and we don't trust Russian numbers. Seeing that citation by Daemon is pretty helpful and informative. I knew Lancets were by far the most successful Russian hardware out there, but I had no quantity to put to it. And I don't have a sense either of what gets credit for all the Ukrainian kills of Russian arty - drones, arty, GMLRS, ATGM, etc? As someone above mentioned, the sources of information used in the article don't seem to be any more reliable than any other information. I'm not entirely certain that either party in the conflict has 100% reliable information about their own losses. But, I would trust Ukraine's knowledge of their own losses to be vastly closer to reality than Russia's. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:09:54 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Evintos: Click To View Spoiler The officials they're referring to are US officials and the article was Aug 2023. No clue if you can trust these numbers either, but the ratio of personnel casualty figures could potentially be used for a general idea of equipment losses as well. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html Non-paywall link Link below for potential ratio comparison for equipment losses. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19015 Click To View Spoiler Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Evintos: Click To View Spoiler The officials they're referring to are US officials and the article was Aug 2023. No clue if you can trust these numbers either, but the ratio of personnel casualty figures could potentially be used for a general idea of equipment losses as well. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html Non-paywall link Link below for potential ratio comparison for equipment losses. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19015 Click To View Spoiler I mean equipment losses. How many artillery, tanks, etc have Ukraine lost? According to TASS: MOSCOW, February 14. /TASS/. Russian forces have destroyed over 15,000 tanks and other armored vehicles of the Ukrainian army since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday. In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed "570 warplanes, 266 helicopters, 12,390 unmanned aerial vehicles, 469 surface-to-air missile systems, 15,034 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,220 multiple rocket launchers, 8,041 field artillery guns and mortars and 18,655 special military motor vehicles since the start of the special military operation," the ministry said in a statement. |
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IN, USA
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:17:40 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Evintos]
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: I mean equipment losses. How many artillery, tanks, etc have Ukraine lost? In the Kyiv Post article - the ratios (roughly) for losses Ukraine:Russia Armored fighting vehicles 1:1 Vehicles 1:2 Tanks 1:2 Artillery 1:4 Special Equipment 1:2 Basically on average for the 2023 summer offensive, Ukraine took out 2 Russian equivalent equipment for every 1 that they lost (for most of the equipment categories). It's similar to the personnel casualty figures which is also roughly 1:2 (estimated 150k Ukrainian casualties to 300k Russian casualties). Ukrainian equipment losses will be estimated at 50% less (except for artillery in which Ukraine has a better ratio) than Russian equipment losses. If Russia claims x number of Ukrainian equipment they've destroyed, then Ukraine can essentially claim they've destroyed 2 times the X number of Russian equipment. Link below to Oryx (who tracks this by geolocation, photo, and video evidence and has links to the evidence) of Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses. It also breaks down losses by type and model. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html Click To View Spoiler https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html Click To View Spoiler Using Oryx numbers, losses (Ukraine:Russia) are roughly 1:3 |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:18:01 AM EDT
[#31]
Tass on negotiations:
MOSCOW, February 15. /TASS/. Russia remains open to talks on Ukraine, while the West is unwilling to engage in a dialogue as it keeps adding fuel to the fire; Israel and Hamas are facing difficulties in the Cairo ceasefire talks; and NATO countries appear determined to beef up their military spending. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia. Vedomosti: Russia remains ready for talks on Ukraine, but West wants to keep fueling fight Moscow is ready to resolve the conflict in Ukraine by political and diplomatic means based on the situation on the ground, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament). However, given the West’s desire to inflict "a strategic defeat" on Russia, there are currently no options for an agreement in sight, Vedomosti writes. Read also West derailed Istanbul talks hoping to defeat Russia on battlefield, says Putin Moscow never opposed talks, they are impossible due to Kiev's position — security official Kiev regime must accept new reality before any peace talks — Kremlin The last time delegations from Russia and Ukraine held peace talks was in Istanbul in March 2022. The parties agreed on a draft accord, with Ukraine accepting neutral status with guarantees from Western countries, while Russia withdrew troops from the Kiev and Chernigov regions as a gesture of goodwill. Russian President Vladimir Putin said later that Ukraine "ditched" all the agreements that had been reached. David Arakhamia, leader of Ukraine’s pro-presidential Servant of the People party, who led the Ukrainian delegation at the Istanbul talks, said in November 2023 that Kiev’s decision to reject Moscow’s proposal and continue fighting had been made at the insistent urging of then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The Ukrainian leadership is still lacking the political will to launch peace talks with Russia, said Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. As well, in the expert’s opinion, the West is not interested in bringing an end to military operations and, moreover, there are no platforms for contact between Moscow and Washington at this point. There is zero chance that ceasefire negotiations with the US will be successful while President Joe Biden remains in the White House, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, noted. First, the very fact of such a dialogue would necessarily lead to the termination of aid to Ukraine. Second, according to the expert, the White House still cherishes the illusory hope that the Ukrainian armed forces are capable of achieving victory on the battlefield. Vasilyev also points out that former President Donald Trump, now seeking to make a comeback and regain the presidency, essentially views Ukraine as a bargaining chip and sees a Western failure in Ukraine as potentially benefitting him by dealing a painful blow to his domestic political rivals, the Democrats. "The Republicans continue to view China as the main US adversary. This is why they think that without the Ukraine factor in play, they would be able to entice Moscow to jettison its alliance with Beijing in the future," the expert concluded. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:18:44 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sywagon: It is abundantly clear to anyone who has been following this thread that planemaker is a citable source himself on these topics. You keep saying you contribute nothing and that you're going to stop shitting up the thread, and yet......... |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:30:27 AM EDT
[#33]
DEMIL costs.
Complicated, not exactly cheap, but sometimes brings in revenue. "General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, St. Petersburg, Florida (W52P1J-21-F-0225); EnviroSafe Demil LLC,* Fallon, Nevada (W52P1J-21-F-0250); and EXPAL USA, Irving, Texas (W52P1J-21-F-0244), will compete for each order of the $110,148,606 firm-fixed-price contract for the demilitarization and disposal of conventional ammunition. Bids were solicited via the internet with eight received. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of May 20, 2026. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Rock Island Arsenal, Illinois, is the contracting activity." https://www.defensedaily.com/contract-awards/contract-award-general-dynamics-ordnance-and-tactical-systems-st-petersburg-florida-w52p1j-21-f-0225-envirosafe-demil-llc-fallon-nevada-w52p1j-21-f-0250-and-expal-usa-irving-texas-w52p1j-21/ Closed-disposal technology alternatives for demilitarization are used to melt, wash, steam out, and chemically convert energetic materials to resaleable commercial products. Furnaces, decontamination chambers, chemical conversion processes, and other advanced technologies use methods of heating, cooling, melting, and washing to decontaminate and recover ammunition items and parts. JMC installations use conventional and advanced robotic ammunition-demilitarization-processing equipment known as Ammunition Peculiar Equipment (APE) to perform many demilitarization operations in a safe and environmentally-compliant manner. Tooele Army Depot specializes in the design and production of APE, which is developed and fielded in compliance with state and federal environmental standards. APE provides the capability to disassemble, mutilate, and recycle munitions for scrap metal. Many alternatives use pollution-control technology such as wet scrubbing, absorption, neutralization, and filtration to control emissions and acidic gases generated during demilitarization of certain munitions items. https://www.jmc.army.mil/thumbnails/pdfs/Alt%20Technologies%202019%20WEB.PDF Army Demilitarization Program According to the FY 2016 Military Munitions Cross-Leveling Program Year-End Summary, the Military Services saved an estimated $92.8 million by making these withdrawals instead of purchasing new OM&S assets. In addition, the Army saved $2.5 million by avoiding the cost of having to demilitarize the assets that were withdrawn from the DEMIL stockpile during FY 2016. In FY 2016, the Army generated $3.2 million in recycling revenue, which was used to purchase supplies and equipment that would enhance and improve DEMIL processes and capabilities. Although the cost varied by type of OM&S asset, the average DEMIL cost per ton was $2,890.23 Based on the average DEMIL cost per ton, JMC personnel estimated that it would cost $1.4 billion to demilitarize and dispose of the 471,767 tons of OM&S assets in the DEMIL stockpile as of September 30, 2016.  https://media.defense.gov/2017/Dec/21/2001860132/-1/-1/1/DODIG-2018-052.PDF Holston Army Ammunition Plant, Kingsport, Tennessee HSAAP is permitted through the TDEC but is limited to less than 1500 pounds per burn pan in the state of Tennessee. Iowa Army Ammunition Plant, Middletown, Iowa IAAAP is permitted through the EPA but is limited to less than 70 pounds per shot and 60 pounds per burn pan in the state of Iowa. Milan Army Ammunition Plant, Milan, Tennessee MLAAP is permitted through the EPA but is limited to less than 500 pounds per shot and 500 pounds per burn pan in the state of Tennessee. Radford Army Ammunition Plant, Radford, Virginia RFAAP is permitted through the EPA but is limited to between 500 pounds and 8,000 pounds per day burned in the state of Virginia. https://www.jmc.army.mil/OBOD/Locations.aspx https://www.jmc.army.mil/thumbnails/pdfs/JMLLCMC-4-2018-Interactive.pdf Letterkenny OBOD Brochure https://www.letterkenny.army.mil/Portals/96/PDF/OBODBrochure2019.pdf JMC Demilitarization/Open Burning of Production Waste Information A variety of site-specific analytical inspection techniques are in place at each of the 11 locations that open burn. They include subsurface water well monitoring, surface water runoff management, continuous air quality monitoring, atmospheric and meteorological analysis and emissions dispersion modeling techniques that have been developed, authorized and applied in accordance with Environmental Protection Agency regulatory standards. DoD also continues to collaborate directly with researchers from EPA’s own Research Triangle Park using new cutting-edge drone technology and EPA research techniques to sample air emissions from actual live fire Open Burn and Open Detonation events. This empirical information is used to further refine current understandings of actual releases to the environment from Open Burn and Open Detonation operations. This DoD/EPA collaboration has been ongoing for over a decade and represents a cooperative scientific based approach for ensuring continued protection of human health and the environment. https://www.jmc.army.mil/OBOD/OB_OD.aspx Five of the Seven DEMIL sites are also superfund sites, though not because of current activities. But they do get a lot of EPA attention. Estimates of average cost per site $15-100M/ Site https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/superfund/ $43M/site https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/_/43-million-for-what Superfund map https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=33cebcdfdd1b4c3a8b51d416956c41f1 Robotics system demilitarizes 700,000 Army submunitions BY MANETTE NEWBOLD FISHER THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2019  More than 700,000 Multiple Launch Rocket System submunitions have been demilitarized since the Army started using an automated, nine-robot system conceptualized, built and programmed by Sandia engineers. “This is by far the most complex, automated robotic demilitarization system that Sandia has built in the last 20 years,” said Bill Prentice, Sandia software lead for the project. “This is exactly the kind of thing to use robotics for — to get humans out of harm’s way. Let the automation of robots do what they do well, and have humans make advanced decisions on safety.” The automated system, owned by the Army, is located at the Anniston Munitions Center’s Multiple Launch Rocket System Recycle Facility in Alabama. The system was built for the Army’s demilitarization program that aims to dismantle obsolete ammunition and missiles. The project was funded and managed through the Department of Defense.  The system reduces the stockpile of Multiple Launch Rocket System munitions that have been in storage and enables the Army to recycle rocket materials — capabilities that did not exist. The Army can now recycle the rockets’ aluminum warhead skin, steel grenade bodies and copper. Speeding up the process of demilitarization also reduces costs. The automated robotic system is designed to demilitarize up to 21 warheads per eight-hour shift. “We were able to remove people from a potentially very dangerous situation and created something that allowed products to be recycled and reused, which is what the DOD demilitarization program is about,” said project lead Walt Wapman. Humans still oversee operations, learn to run the advanced robotics system and watch the process on live feeds in a control room. Computer vision, which is a form of artificial intelligence using digital images from cameras, can detect abnormalities during the demilitarization process and alert operators who determine if there is a safety concern. Commercial robots All system robots are commercial, off-the-shelf products that Sandia engineers customized and programmed to do specific tasks. “There are 644 grenades per warhead, and our job is to take these tightly packed, columnated grenades in the warhead foam packs and demilitarize them,” Bill said. The system is organized into nine “cells.” The first cell is the weapons disassembly system where warheads are cut into separate foam-pack sections. The foam packs filled with grenades are then delivered to cells two and three where the grenades are removed from the foam packs. From there, individual grenades are delivered to cells four through nine where the fuses are detached. Once the fuses are detached, the munitions have been disarmed. The system can pick up and place foam packs and grenades in precise orientations, and lock and rotate the grenades to examine and remove fuses in a safe way, Bill said. For more than three years, Bill said he put his heart and soul into development of the robotic system. He and a small team used three computer languages to program the nine robot cells, tested the system and traveled back and forth to Alabama while the robotic work cells were assembled and tested. “Part of the challenge is when you demilitarize warheads like this, you’re working on munitions that are 10, 20, 30 years old,” Bill said. “You test on inert munitions that are in pristine condition, but when you start cutting apart warheads and looking at live grenades, they might have some environmental effects that cause process abnormalities, such as grenades being stuck together during removal.” New system builds on Sandia’s long robotics history Bill said Sandia has been involved in robotics for more than 20 years and the demilitarization business for at least 18 years. Walt led the demilitarization program at Sandia for most of that time. “I’d say that what Sandia really brought to the table was an integrated, small team that took a blank sheet of paper and made a nine-robot automated system with 55 cameras, hundreds of sensors and a lot of exceptional designs, enabling us to deliver a reliable system to the Army that’s been safe,” Walt said. https://www.sandia.gov/labnews/2019/02/28/mlrs/ |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:30:46 AM EDT
[#34]
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:31:08 AM EDT
[#35]
Shouvalov
I would really, really really like to see how the armchair generalissimos will throw their trump card “the crests surrendered Avdeevka” personally to those of our fighters who took Adveevka. No, there are no pro-Ukrainian sentiments among our fighters, and I also said this so gently, almost tenderly. There is no sympathy, just as there is not even a hint of the “military humanism” of past wars in this massacre. But come on: tell me that the enemy “surrendered” Avdeevka or “surrendered” Artemovsk to those who participated in the assault on these enpeshki. I still believe that it is unacceptable to voice losses, but everyone seems to know that Avdeevka cost us many times more in people than Artemovsk. And even the final stage of the assault - it also cost many times more. And just to take it and go on the attack where there are not even whole stones left, where every meter is corpses, blood and fire - this is already a feat. And not going crazy and not shooting yourself after that is also a feat. And to be there and take the fight over and over again is beyond what is, in principle, called a feat. I remember the ugliest lampoons about how well and brave it is to fight in iron helmets instead of full-fledged ammunition. Today no one runs around in iron helmets anymore, but not because everyone has changed their clothes, but because the wearers of those iron helmets have run out. Literally. Now they are trying to instill the idea that a loaf is a cooler vehicle than Hummers, tigers and all sorts of jeeps. This is something that is invented and pushed by the bastards who feed from the war far from the trenches, and the cretins who believe in it are those who “surrendered” Avdeevka or Artemovsk to someone else. In no other war in history has every centimeter of vast territories been chewed out like this, and every step has not been so drenched in blood. I have written more than once that I think about the praise of heroism, especially by armchair generalissimos, but without this bloody and carrion-smelling heroism they do not walk or live here. Fuck-ups and heroism - one gives rise to the other and merges into a single alloy. And when the temperature rises above zero, there is a smell of carrion and burning everywhere. There are no other smells here anymore - from Avdeevka to the Zaporozhye borders. So, I repeat. I really want to see how the survivors of these meat grinders will be told that the enemy “surrendered” Avdeevka and Artemovsk to them. Well, I really want to see what happens next. I know what the answer will be, I’m only interested in how. But the same applies to those who try to estimate the price of the taken ruins. Do we or the enemy have enough people to pay such a price for every meter of ruins that we end up with? I don't know. And I’m not even ready to discuss it yet. Will those who lived through them and survive celebrate these victories? I don’t think so, but I’m not ready to discuss it. Let's dwell for now on the fact that a feat was accomplished beyond everything imaginable and unthinkable. But there is no reason to dance for joy or humiliate our fighters with the phrase “the enemy surrendered.” Not the slightest. Eternal memory to the fallen. https://t.me/shouvalov/188 Some take credit for the Su-35 they shot down, while others pretend that they didn’t lose anything, but shot down an enemy plane. Losses of over 50% of our combat aviation are included in the list of successes of our air defense. No one drew any conclusions. Never. https://t.me/shouvalov/189 |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:33:36 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tacosis: You keep saying you contribute nothing and that you're going to stop shitting up the thread, and yet......... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tacosis: Originally Posted By sywagon: It is abundantly clear to anyone who has been following this thread that planemaker is a citable source himself on these topics. You keep saying you contribute nothing and that you're going to stop shitting up the thread, and yet......... It isn't like anyone gives a crap what you add either 
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:34:46 AM EDT
[#37]
Prisoner interview.
Joined to pay debts in logistics, was forced into infantry.  ????? ????????- ????????? ? ?? ??????! ?????????? ??????? ????? ?? ??! |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:40:14 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#38]
The Russian Armed Forces evacuated more than 20 wounded and abandoned Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers in Avdeevka
Soldiers of the Armed Forces (AF) of the Russian Federation evacuated more than 20 militants of the Ukrainian army, who were abandoned by their colleagues when fleeing from Avdiivka. The operational services of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported this to TASS on February 19. They noted that fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) fled even before the official announcement of the abandonment of Avdiivka. “They left their wounded to die. Our guys evacuate and save them. At the moment, more than 20 wounded have been taken out,” the agency’s source said. He also added that the evacuation of wounded Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers continues. Earlier that day, Izvestia correspondent Stanislav Grigoriev, who was one of the first to visit Avdeevka after the liberation of the city from Ukrainian Armed Forces militants, found the site of the most intense fighting in the village . The intensity of the fighting in this area is evidenced by the condition of the road surface, of which almost nothing remains. Nearby are the remains of an anti-tank embankment. The correspondent on February 19 showed footage from the scene. [videos] On February 18, Grigoriev showed footage showing that Avdiivka was almost completely destroyed . Dozens of shell craters can be seen between the buildings, and the sounds of shooting can be heard. On February 17, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Armed Forces had taken full control of Avdeevka in the Donetsk People's Republic. He emphasized that the liberation of the city by the Russian military made it possible to move the front line away from Donetsk and significantly secure the city from attacks by the Kyiv regime. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin heard the first reports from Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov on the liberation of Avdeevka at 4:00 the same day. After the report, Putin congratulated the Russian military personnel on this success and important victory on the battlefield . At the same time, he thanked the troops of the Center group and their commander, Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, for the battles for Avdeevka. On February 18, the Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian Armed Forces, having liberated Avdeevka, advanced to a depth of 8.6 km. The total area of the liberated territory was 31.75 square meters. km , and enemy losses were more than 1.5 thousand soldiers. The Russian military department also published footage showing how Ukrainian troops were leaving their positions in the city. The Russian Ministry of Defense noted that the enemy began to flee from the village even before the order of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Alexander Syrsky, made only a day later. Since 2014, Ukrainian armed formations (UFU) have been shelling residential areas of Donetsk from Avdeevka. Positions in the area of Yasinovataya and Donetsk allowed them to keep the filtering and pumping stations under threat. The water supply of millions of residents of Donetsk and nearby villages depended on these facilities. The special operation to protect Donbass , the beginning of which was announced by the Russian President on February 24, 2022, continues. The decision was made against the backdrop of an aggravation of the situation in the region due to shelling by the Ukrainian military. https://iz.ru/1652355/2024-02-19/vs-rf-evakuirovali-bolee-20-ranenykh-i-broshennykh-boitcov-vsu-v-avdeevke
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:41:25 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sywagon: I've read this thread from the beginning. I'm not the one who came in and derailed it for page after page in yet another drive by. It isn't like anyone gives a crap what you add either So you provide no value whatsoever outside of waving pom poms, but are the self appointed arbiter of what's right here? Lol. I never realized talking about Ukraine/Russia topics was "derailing" anything. Or are we just allowed to talk about topics you understand? |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:47:59 AM EDT
[#40]
Cooperation with North Korea, Economy and Culture: Russian Experts: "We Will Not Provide Nuclear Technology"
Russia and North Korea are deepening their military and economic cooperation. Following General Secretary Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia in September last year, attention is focused on whether President Putin will visit North Korea. Alexander V. Vorontsov, head of the Korean and Mongolian Office of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who is familiar with relations between the two countries, denied cooperation on nuclear development, but believes that cooperation will expand in a wide range of fields. How do the Russian people view North Korea? Perceptions vary, and the majority of people are not that interested, but I believe that we should try to build good friendship with our bordering neighbors as part of our security. The political system in North Korea is very specific, and some people think that North Korea is not socialist. Q: In what areas is Russia strengthening its relations with North Korea? Russia aims to continue its traditional cooperative relationship, which has a long history since the founding of North Korea in 1948. The summit meeting in September last year was held under new circumstances. North Korea was one of the countries that supported Russia very loudly, resolutely, and frankly at the United Nations and international conferences over Russia's special military operation (invasion) in Ukraine. General Secretary Kim Jong-un and others fully supported Russia, saying that "North Korea and Russia are in one trench." However, since North Korea has not completely abolished measures such as the suspension of regular flights due to the new coronavirus, relations are slowly improving. In December last year, the governor of Russia's Primorsky Krai, Kozhemyako, visited North Korea and agreed to include a visit by a group of Russian tourists to a huge ski resort in North Korea (Masoryeong Ski Resort). A delegation of parliamentarians from Moscow will also visit North Korea soon. "North Korean workers are welcome" Q: Accepting North Korean workers is a violation of UN Security Council resolutions, but will North Korean workers be dispatched to Russia in the future? Of course (it will be). North Korean workers are disciplined and work hard, which is why they are welcomed in many countries in Europe and Asia, including Russia. However, the contents of the 10th meeting of the Committee on Trade, Economics, Science and Technology Cooperation between Russia and North Korea (held in Pyongyang in November last year) were not made public, so I could not read the statement of the protocol. So, I can't say anything substantive (such as the size of the workforce). On this topic, mainly Western media report a lot of speculation, assumptions and conjectures, but there were no verified facts. Q: What other ways are the Russian side considering expanding cooperation? Russia wants to expand economic cooperation, exchanges of students, academics and artists, etc. There are also ideas for North Korean teams to participate in international military competitions (which Russia has held every summer since 2015) and to send Russian children to summer camps in North Korea (which has a track record of being held in Wonsan, Gangwon Province). --There may be cooperation that violates UN Security Council sanctions resolutions (*The United States and Europe have criticized Russia for violating UN sanctions resolutions by receiving missiles and ammunition from North Korea and using them in its invasion of Ukraine). North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Sung Hee visited Russia in January. Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said, "President Putin has decided to expand cooperation in various fields." Of course, [the expansion of cooperation between the two countries] is a sensitive issue, and many areas are prohibited by UN sanctions resolutions. We are in a position to respect sanctions. It is necessary not only to expand cooperation, but also to find exactly the areas (that do not result in sanctions violations). Cooperation is not easy. Q: Will Russia cooperate with North Korea in its nuclear development? Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov repeatedly stressed that Russia has a commitment to UN Security Council resolutions. This is because we take the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a sensitive issue. Russia is one of the countries contributing to the NPT regime. There is no idea of providing Russia with nuclear technology, including nuclear submarines, to North Korea. There are some rumors and fantasies flying around, but they are not facts. Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry claims that the main cause of tensions on the Korean Peninsula is the military activities of the United States and South Korea. Russia needs to re-propose the roadmap it proposed in 2017 (jointly with China) (which laid out the path toward denuclearization, including North Korea halting its nuclear and missile development and freezing joint military exercises by the United States and South Korea). "The New Cold War is a Reality" Advantages of North Korea's Diplomatic Environment Q: Is Russia's inability to move forward with military cooperation with North Korea partly due to consideration for China? Everyone understands that China is the second superpower that is catching up with the first superpower (the United States). Everyone, including Japan and the United States, is both hostile to China and treats it with reverence. Russia shares a border with China for thousands of kilometers. The relationship between the two countries is very multidimensional and complex. China's economic power and financial resources are enormous, but Beijing cannot ensure its own security without Russia. If the West succeeds in inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Russia, China believes that the West will immediately "pounce" on China with all its might. Strategically, China and Russia also have serious common threats and challenges, especially on the Korean Peninsula. Q: What is your assessment of North Korea's domestic politics? Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed humanitarian aid when he visited North Korea in October last year and when the economic delegation visited North Korea in November, but North Korea declined the proposal on the grounds that it had a good harvest in 23 years and had food stocks. The situation will be difficult for some time, but it will not be hopeless. As for the successor, Kim's daughter attends many important events, but she is still too young. I think it's too early to predict whether it's a successor, at least at today. ――There have been a series of indications that a new Cold War has begun. Unfortunately, [the new Cold War] has become a reality. While Russia and North Korea are getting closer, some have pointed out that China is not enthusiastic, but relations between Russia and China and between North Korea and China are developing widely. At the end of last year, North Korea's Vice Foreign Minister visited China, and in January this year, China's Vice Foreign Minister visited North Korea to discuss China-North Korea friendship on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea. Indeed, it can be said that the new Cold War has had a not bad effect on the diplomatic environment of North Korea. (Interviewer: Aihiro Makino) Alexander V. Vorontsov graduated from Moscow State University. He also studied at Kim Il Sung University. In 2000~02, he worked at the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang. In addition to serving as a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution in the U.S. from 05~06, he has also served as a visiting professor at several universities in Japan and South Korea, and is known for his academic exchanges with Western countries as a leading expert on North Korea studies in Russia. https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASS2K4CHRS2DUHBI014.html |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:54:17 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#41]
#Summary for the morning of February 19, 2024
▪️In the morning, official statements were received about the liberation of the coke-chemical plant in Avdeevka, Russian flags were hoisted on the buildings of the enterprise. Our troops are developing an offensive to the west, trying to break into the enemy’s defenses. They are fixed on occupied lines. ▪️On the Zaporozhye front, motorized riflemen and paratroopers are fighting for Rabotino, asking not to rush to report the situation, the line of combat contact is changing. Successes were reported in the south of the village; heavy, bloody battles were taking place. In the Kamensk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are striking enemy concentrations. The head of the enemy Zaporozhye administration announced the evacuation of residents of the front-line territories controlled by the Kyiv regime. ▪️From the Kherson direction there were reports of the destruction of enemy boats and artillery strikes on the enemy’s shore. ▪️West of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), our troops are developing an offensive on Ivanovskoye (Krasnoe), advancing on a front up to 2 km wide - to a depth of up to 1 km, according to enemy estimates. Footage of the offensive actions of our 98th Airborne Division appeared. ▪️West of Kremennaya our offensive continues into the Ternov area. To the south - battles for Belogorovka. ▪️Enemy attacks on the Belgorod region do not stop. The governor reported FPV drone strikes and quadcopters with drops. At the border, mobile electronic warfare equipment is constantly fighting against enemy UAVs; in some cases it is not possible to land them, which may be due to the enemy changing frequencies. ▪️In the DPR, Donetsk and Gorlovka, three civilians were injured as a result of an explosion on “petals” and submunitions. In the village In Panteleimonovka, as a result of the detonation of a previously unexploded submunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, three children were seriously injured - boys born in 2012, 2013, 2014. The summary was compiled by: Two majors https://t.me/dva_majors/34860 ❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Orekhovsky area: offensive of the Russian Armed Forces situation as of 01.00 February 19, 2024  🔻Russian troops continue their offensive in the so-called “Rabotinsky ledge.” ▪️According to the Archangel of Special Forces, units of paratroopers and motorized riflemen managed to advance 2 km in depth and reach the southern and southeastern outskirts of Rabotino. ▪️Most likely, the yet unconfirmed reports of battles on the western outskirts of the village are already a reality. Taking into account the vector of attacks by Russian armored groups and the landing of foot troops to the west of the village, this scenario is quite realistic. ▪️A fair question arises whether the enemy will have time to transfer reinforcements to hold Rabotino. The settlement was severely destroyed during the summer fighting. And to be objective, there is no way it can become a “fortune”. 📌However, Russian troops will also have to “pass right through” the settlement, because it will be difficult, to put it mildly, to gain a foothold in the ruins. https://t.me/rybar/57275 We'll wait until Monday. 104th week of SVO: main thing The @wargonzo channel is conducting a week-long analysis of the fighting in Ukraine. Kherson-Crimean direction. Nothing revolutionary happened on the left bank of the Dnieper. The Russian Armed Forces will iron out Ukrainian positions in Krynki with all available means, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not going to abandon them. And it cannot be said that they are holding them back with the tenacity of the doomed. Zaporozhye direction. From mutual jabs at the beginning of the week near the settlements of Rabotino, Novoprokopovka and Verbovoye, by the end of the week, it seems that the Russian Armed Forces decided to take away the initiative. Russian troops can even count tactical successes to their credit. Their desire is evident to still cut off the ledge that the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to create during the summer offensive. But it is impossible to say that this will not be a very difficult task for the RF Armed Forces. Ugledar direction. Continues to be the quietest. But here, too, the activity of the RF Armed Forces has increased. A number of positions north of Priyutnoye that were lost in the summer were recaptured. Otherwise, we can only state clashes of a local nature without the desire to significantly change the LBS. Donetsk direction. The loudest event of the past week was the fall of the Ukrainian fortified area in Avdiivka. All the prerequisites for this were created earlier by the RF Armed Forces with their active offensive actions. There was a decent “cauldron” planned there for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is worth saying that the Ukrainian garrison in the city held out until the last and left there in a more or less organized manner. Which doesn’t make his lot any easier in the future. After the loss of Avdeevka, this section of the front may crumble, since the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not take care of creating powerful defensive positions west of Avdeevka. The Russian Armed Forces have every chance of an operational breakthrough. In addition to Avdeevka, one can note the serious tactical successes of Russian troops in the Novomikhailovka area, which managed to occupy part of this important settlement. If full control is established for the Russian Armed Forces, prospects for a breakthrough to the rear of the Ukrainian garrison in Ugledar open up. Russian troops also managed to improve their tactical positions at Pobeda, Nevelskoye and Pervomaisky. Bakhmut direction. Here the Ukrainian Armed Forces stubbornly and not without success fought back in Kleshcheevka, but lost positions in the Ivanovsky area. Not critical yet, since the heights of Chasov Yar are behind them. This city is the key one in this direction. The Russian Armed Forces are also putting pressure on him in the Bogdanovka area. But here too, Ukrainian troops are holding back attacks. Lugansk direction. The RF Armed Forces have again taken up Belogorovka, which is like a bone in our throat. But the most active battles took place in the area of Torskoye, Yampolevka and Ternov. Russian troops had tactical successes. The capture of these settlements will be considered operational. Since the main logistics route of the Ukrainian Armed Forces passes here on the left bank of the Zherebets River. So far, the RF Armed Forces have not completed this task. https://t.me/wargonzo/18273 
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:55:23 AM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#42]
[Deleted]
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Posted: 2/19/2024 12:59:34 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillyDBerger: Just wait til the T34s show up en masse. They don't have any. A few years ago they had to buy a dozen(?) of T-34s from Laos for a Victory Day parade. |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 1:01:29 AM EDT
[#44]
    
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Posted: 2/19/2024 1:04:41 AM EDT
[#45]
 
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Posted: 2/19/2024 1:07:27 AM EDT
[#46]
"Stop being mean to Russia", from Chinese state media.
Russian Ambassador to the United States: The United States accuses Russia of Navalny's death in order to impose more sanctions on Russia 2024-02-19 08:54 | Source: CCTV On February 17, local time, the Russian Foreign Ministry released a message saying that Russian Ambassador to the United States Antonov responded to the US official's accusations against Russia over the death of Russian opposition figure Navalny in prison. Antonov said that the Russian side has taken note of the US side's criticism of Russia. The Russian side believes that no matter how sensitive the issue is, the main task of Washington is not to understand the problem, but to strike a tougher blow at Russia. The US is using this to find a reason to carry out defame attacks on Russia and, most importantly, to impose more sanctions, the purpose of which is to save the shaky American order on the basis of some kind of rules. (CCTV News Client) http://usa.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0219/c241376-40179222.html |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 1:13:00 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#47]
Ukrainian source, yesterday.
🛩 In the Luhansk region, the work of the newest Russian multi-purpose fighter of the 5th generation SU-57 was noted. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12688
Obviously, buyer beware. Russia potentially tests fifth-generation Su-57 fighter with first use of Ch-69 missile in Ukraine In the initial stages, the specific type of missile used by the Russian Federation army was uncertain. A preliminary examination of the rocket debris found in Ukraine suggested it might be the Ch-59. However, this misidentification arose because the newer Ch-69 is, in fact, a deep modernization of the previously mentioned Ch-59. Among the differences between these two missiles is the platform from which they can be launched. The Ch-59 can be fired from Su-35S aircraft, while the Ch-69 was specifically developed to be housed in the internal chamber of the Su-57 aircraft. This information suggests the possibility that Russians have commenced testing of their new fifth-generation Su-57 fighters. About the Ch-69 Missiles of Russia t's worth noting that the Ch-69 missile is considered the Russian counterpart to the American AGM-158 JASSM missiles. The latter are currently expected to be shipped to Ukraine, along with F-16 fighters. The Ch-69 differs from its precursor, the Ch-59, in terms of its aircraft body design modifications. In addition, the new design is lighter and can target ground objects regardless of weather conditions or time of day, including during nighttime operations. Specifically, the Ch-69 measures 13.8 feet in length and has a diameter of 1.3 feet, with wings spanning 8.2 feet. It weighs exactly 1697.6 lbs, and a significant chunk of this weight, approximately 661.4 lbs, is due to the warhead. The missile's propulsion is facilitated by an NPO Saturn TRDD-50 MT turbojet engine. An important characteristic of this concurrently contemporary and secrecy-shrouded weapon, kept under wraps for several years, is its fire-and-forget guidance system. This system integrates inertial and GLONASS satellite navigation with an onboard fire control system. As a result, the Ch-69 can achieve high precision, with accuracy estimated at around a mere 9.8 feet. With launch capabilities ranging from a minimum altitude of 656 feet to a maximum of 36,089 feet, the missile speed bursts to subsonic levels. Furthermore, the Ch-69 can hit targets up to an impressive 342 miles away. The Ch-69 can be equipped with either a fragmentation or a cassette warhead, as per the manufacturer's discretion. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-potentially-tests-fifth-generation-su-57-fighter-with-first-use-of-ch-69-missile-in-ukraine/ar-BB1it7Ep Results of the current day, 18.02.24 Aviation: ▫️During the day, crews of 4x Tu-22m3 were trained at "Olenya" AE (2/2), 2x Tu-95ms and 2x Tu-160 at "Engels-2" AE. ▫️In the afternoon of 18.02, launch of 1x KAR Kh-59 from Su-34 in the direction of Dnipropetrovsk region (no details). Black Sea Fleet: ▫️ 1 missile carrier is on combat duty (Varshavyanka detachment). General salvo up to 4 Kalibr cruise missiles. Ground launch complexes: ▫️Six missiles from the S-300 air defense system were launched in the direction of Donetsk region. ▫️The 1st rocket from the Iskander-M OTRK was launched in the direction of Donetsk region. BpLA: ▫️In the evening of 17.02 — at night on 18.02, 14 "Shahed-136/131" UAVs were deployed from the airfields "Primorsko-Akhtarsk" and "Khalino" (12 were shot down). ▫️In the evening of February 18, there is a threat of UAVs from the east. @monitorwarr | #summary_of_the_day https://t.me/monitorwarr/18828 |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 1:15:10 AM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#48]
Noted. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/19/2024 1:23:04 AM EDT
[#49]
Zelensky, his party, and the Rada have made a huge strategic gamble in brushing aside Zaluzhny's request for a half-million man callup. Given the way Russia has been pressing, the losses Ukraine is taking, and how overtaxed many of the units are (110th in Avdiivka, for example), this is going to look more and more like an existential failure for Zelensky, IMO. A callup that started Jan 1 would yield troops ready to take the field this summer, when they'll be needed. They can't wait until lines start giving up bigger chunks of ground.
If they don't have money, or more importantly equipment, to bring them in, Ukraine's position is far worse than it looks right now. I think Putin is seeing opportunity, signs of upcoming collapse. Going back 23 months ago, I was a Ukraine skeptic then, too, thinking that big, bad Russia would crush'em. Two more weeks!  Send ATACMs now! |
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Posted: 2/19/2024 1:23:13 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: So you provide no value whatsoever outside of waving pom poms, but are the self appointed arbiter of what's right here? Lol. I never realized talking about Ukraine/Russia topics was "derailing" anything. Or are we just allowed to talk about topics you understand? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By sywagon: I've read this thread from the beginning. I'm not the one who came in and derailed it for page after page in yet another drive by. It isn't like anyone gives a crap what you add either So you provide no value whatsoever outside of waving pom poms, but are the self appointed arbiter of what's right here? Lol. I never realized talking about Ukraine/Russia topics was "derailing" anything. Or are we just allowed to talk about topics you understand? |
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