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Quoted: I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: and the one question the doomers wont answer: Was it worth collapsing the world economy to save what equates to a few day's worth of natural deaths? I wonder what this cost the world per death I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer The question of the policy response is capable of existing totally separately from the reality of the disease spread. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean you reject the math of the threat. For some reason, though, it is pervasive on this forum. |
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Quoted: The question of the policy response is capable of existing totally separately from the reality of the disease spread. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean you reject the math of the threat. For some reason, though, it is pervasive on this forum. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: and the one question the doomers wont answer: Was it worth collapsing the world economy to save what equates to a few day's worth of natural deaths? I wonder what this cost the world per death I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer The question of the policy response is capable of existing totally separately from the reality of the disease spread. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean you reject the math of the threat. For some reason, though, it is pervasive on this forum. And yet, you adamantly stick to the position that being critical of the response means rejection of the math. |
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Quoted: And yet, you adamantly stick to the position that being critical of the response means rejection of the math. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: and the one question the doomers wont answer: Was it worth collapsing the world economy to save what equates to a few day's worth of natural deaths? I wonder what this cost the world per death I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer The question of the policy response is capable of existing totally separately from the reality of the disease spread. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean you reject the math of the threat. For some reason, though, it is pervasive on this forum. And yet, you adamantly stick to the position that being critical of the response means rejection of the math. Please cite one example of where I have said that. |
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Quoted: I've posed several simple questions that flu bros won't answer. Nos. 7-8 are the only new questions on the list. With every question I have posted, I have predicted that no one would answer it. Over the course of about a week, only one flu bro has answered only one of the questions, no. 6. So, flu bros, what do you say? 1. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the infection rate reach? (unchanged, once it was in the wild we all are likely to be exposed to it) 2. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the final death rate be? (terrible question, as it is very population dependent and tied to the previous answer. But overall slowing down the spread should in theory limit resource scarcity and rationing. However, know one will no if it would have ever been a problem but I will say there would be fewer deaths) 3. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the infection rate reach? (see first answer, we have to assume 100%) 4. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the final death rate be? (Same as answer 2) 5. On what date will total deaths stop doubling every 3-4 days and the doubling rate begin to slow? (how many old sick people have already been exposed. Why does the doubling make a difference? If 20k died in a week vs 20k in a month 20k are still dead. Until resource scarcity is an issue the question is really valid) 6. How many lives saved would make the current quarantine measures worth it? (silly question and impossible to answer other than the overwhelming majority of people make a full recovery and those most effected are elderly and in compromised health) 7. How many would have to die before people would self-quarantine without government directives? (depends on the individual, but realistic people are making an individual choice comparing work requirements, debt obligations, physical health, health of people around them, etc... Again the majority of people recover just fine and some reports that near 50% are asymptomatic.) 8. How many would have to die before people should self-quarantine of their own accord? (it's an individual choice) All answers will, of course, be approximations. I am using the word quarantine loosely, to mean staying at home and procuring only essential goods and services. View Quote There I answered them all |
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Quoted: My OP says answer are "approximate." Anyway, if you're paying attention, this isn't some kind of "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin exercise," but calling it that is a nice deflection. The point of this is to get people to think through their opinions and conclusions. Sadly, many people would rather name call and point fingers than think. 1. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the infection rate reach? At least 10%, probably not more than 15%. This is based on the fact that seasonal flu is usually around 8%. All data indicates that COVID-19 is more infectious than seasonal flu. 10% yields 32,700,000 U.S. cases. 2. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the final death rate be? Since the low-end containment death rate estimates are 1.4%, 2% sounds reasonable since there appears to be some correlation between quarantine measures and death rates. A 10% infection rate and a 2% death rate yields 654,000 deaths. 3. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the infection rate reach? 1%, WAG. 4. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the final death rate be? 1%. We should do better than China. 5. On what date will deaths stop doubling every 3-4 days and the doubling rate begin to slow? April 15, semi-WAG based on the few (two?) large countries who have gotten to the point of declining numbers. 6. How many lives saved would make the current quarantine measures worth it? 500,000. If you get anything approaching 500,000 deaths, people are shutting themselves in regardless. Then you get both the economic collapse and the deaths. 7. How many would have to die before people would self-quarantine without government directives? 500,000, WAG. 8. How many would have to die before people should self-quarantine of their own accord? 200,000, WAG. "Flu Bro" and "Doomer" are basically the terms that have evolved here for the people who think COVID-19 is overblown and the people who think it's likely to be catastrophic if treated like seasonal flu. View Quote I had put together a large and involved response, but decided to scrap it. I will however, point out one very serious flaw in your answers and posting: The rate is the slope of the line on the graph. a 10% increase changes the slope of the graph - you don't just multiply the numbers of the seasonal flu by 10% and declare victory. math is a thing. Try multiplying the slope by 1.1 at each interval and tell me where you end up. |
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Quoted: I've posed several simple questions that flu bros won't answer. Nos. 7-8 are the only new questions on the list. With every question I have posted, I have predicted that no one would answer it. Over the course of about a week, only one flu bro has answered only one of the questions, no. 6. So, flu bros, what do you say? 1. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the infection rate reach? 2. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the final death rate be? 3. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the infection rate reach? 4. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the final death rate be? 5. On what date will total deaths stop doubling every 3-4 days and the doubling rate begin to slow? 6. How many lives saved would make the current quarantine measures worth it? 7. How many would have to die before people would self-quarantine without government directives? 8. How many would have to die before people should self-quarantine of their own accord? All answers will, of course, be approximations. I am using the word quarantine loosely, to mean staying at home and procuring only essential goods and services. View Quote Not exactly a flu bro here but my total US death toll directly attributable to covid19 is 100k. The govt and the news have already scared enough people to make a measureable difference from voluntary action even if no quarantining is enforced from here on. |
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Call me a FluBro if you want......but cases started popping up here in MO around 4 weeks ago. We're now at 233......wow, that's something like .0038% of the population of Missouri. The horror!!
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OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?"
Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" |
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Quoted: OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?" Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" View Quote I'm willing to take my chances... the same as I do every other day of the year. Life is scary, isn't it? |
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Quoted: OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?" Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" View Quote |
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We are not really in quarantine at all. If we can still fly, go to the grocery store etc its really not quarantine at all. Virus is going to run regardless what we do absent effective medication. Question is if we loose more people to economic conditions or the virus. Going forward what is worse, a weakened America whose economy is in shambles or loosing people through virus. Historically these things cause upheaval in the geo political arena, aka war. Both suck, one sucks more.
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Quoted: I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: and the one question the doomers wont answer: Was it worth collapsing the world economy to save what equates to a few day's worth of natural deaths? I wonder what this cost the world per death I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer It's not a binary choice. Not quarantining is quite capable of resulting in an economic collapse too. |
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Quoted: I'll give you some questions that no one seems to be considering. What is the worldwide cost and death toll related to shutting down the worlds greatest economies? How will the US continue to fight disease around the world when it's economy is crippled? On a scale of $0 - All the dollars, what is the value of a single human life? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: What other kinds of questions do you think heads of state are trying to answer as they decide what appropriate countermeasures are? What are some smart questions to ask? What is the worldwide cost and death toll related to shutting down the worlds greatest economies? How will the US continue to fight disease around the world when it's economy is crippled? On a scale of $0 - All the dollars, what is the value of a single human life? The value of a single human life depends on if you ask that single person. |
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We burn the damn economy to the ground worldwide and it’ll lead to world war 3. It’s like history and stuff.
Instead of a bunch of people at the end of their lives dying it’ll be our youngest and our best. |
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Quoted: I'm willing to take my chances... the same as I do every other day of the year. Life is scary, isn't it? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?" Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" I'm willing to take my chances... the same as I do every other day of the year. Life is scary, isn't it? The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. |
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Quoted: Or even better yet, how many doomers would willingly spend their entire 401(k) to save a strangers life? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?" Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" I got out of the market mid February. |
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My crystal ball caught the COVID and is in quarantine for 14 days.
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Quoted: The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?" Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" I'm willing to take my chances... the same as I do every other day of the year. Life is scary, isn't it? The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. No shit... look, if you're at risk, you should self-quarantine... but we could still keep rest of the economy moving along without a trillion dollar .gov handout and the destruction of the economy |
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Quoted: The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?" Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" I'm willing to take my chances... the same as I do every other day of the year. Life is scary, isn't it? The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. If you are at risk then isolate yourself. Problem solved. |
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Quoted: My one question. If its so bad why is everyone allowed to work? If you do anything except sell chick shit at chick stores , you're still working here. I thought were all gonna die if we leave our houses ? Why is work safe ,and anything not work related a death sentence? View Quote Because there is no other alternative. The web of industries and companies that support the essentials of life is absolutely massive. Truly clamping down for any period of time would mean no food, no power, no water, no internet, no emergency services. The second any one of those things tries to operate it creates a cascade of dependencies that require other companies to operate. The food industry doesn't just spit out food, they have tons of inputs into their process that in turn are industries onto themselves. Even the truck required to bring it to market exists because of thousands of companies in automotive, oil, metals, plastics, electronics, rubber, software, glass all need to exist to make that truck possible. Now fish bone that same thing out for EVERY input or piece of equipment that exists between the farm and your table. We are going to arrive at the cold hard realization eventually that shut downs will never be more than partial and will mostly be limited to the very end of the line consumer facing businesses where you actually can shut them down without cascading through a ton of other related dependent industries. |
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Quoted: The value of a single human life depends on if you ask that single person. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: What other kinds of questions do you think heads of state are trying to answer as they decide what appropriate countermeasures are? What are some smart questions to ask? What is the worldwide cost and death toll related to shutting down the worlds greatest economies? How will the US continue to fight disease around the world when it's economy is crippled? On a scale of $0 - All the dollars, what is the value of a single human life? The value of a single human life depends on if you ask that single person. |
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Quoted: The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. View Quote Then take some damn personal responsibility and quarantine yourself if you choose. I’m not old. I have no immune disorders. I am close to zero risk. I do however have 3 kids who depend on me. I have over 30 employees who depend on my business running. Make your choice I don’t give a shit but allow me to make mine. |
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Quoted: Plus you come off as condescending as well as not too thoughtful. Why you are surprised at the reactions is a little mystifying. View Quote The title is meant to be provocative, otherwise nobody would click. The post itself wasn't meant to be condescending. Flu bro has just become a generic term here, just like Doomer. What I relayed in the post is a series of straightforward factual statements. The questions themselves are what I see as the core questions that should be shaping public policy for this epidemic. Trump is beginning to indirectly raise these questions himself. I'm surprised at the level of vitriol that posing the questions is eliciting. |
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Quoted: Why is it safe to work, but death to do anything but work? View Quote Might be a question of acceptable risk. Anything that involves other people could result in getting the virus. But having everyone stay home would result in millions of deaths from dehydration, starvation, murder, etc. Not going to a concert, ballgame, etc does not have that level of risk. |
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Quoted: I’d rather die on my feet than live on my knees. I guess we could all just cower in fear in our homes while the whole world burns to the ground while we eat mountain house and spam. Not me. People die Looks like a few extra people might die It’s bad It’s sad It still doesn’t justify shutting the entire planet down. If you choose to quarantine yourself fine. If I choose not to then so be it. Freedom be scary bro When this thing gets worse than vehicle deaths let me know but in the meantime I’m still driving and still going to work. Flubro or whatever I don’t give a shit View Quote I expect you and your type to never, not once, nor ever, to visit the doctor. You wouldn’t want to be a hypocrite now. I also assume you have never been to the dentist? I mean what’s the point you’ll die eventually anyway, why inconvenience yourself, right? |
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Quoted: FPNI. Come on OP. View Quote The fact that we can't answer questions about the future with certainty doesn't mean we should not analyze data from the past to develop fact-based probabilities to inform decisions being made in the present. There are entire professions and industries devoted to it. If my questions are so bad, what questions do you think Donald Trump is currently asking for answers to? |
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Quoted: The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?" Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" I'm willing to take my chances... the same as I do every other day of the year. Life is scary, isn't it? The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. Feel free to self-quarantine as long as you like. |
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Quoted: This will pass, relatively soon,. When it comes around again, or any other flu, how many deaths occurr before the government shuts things done again? Has a precedent been set from which there will never be a return to "normal" or is this the new normal? View Quote It'll probably be like 9/11 where it creates vast new swaths of government spending to cover such an incident in the future and then that's it. Life goes on and marginal tax rates tick up another percent on average to cover it. From a federal budget standpoint, we are technically still fighting the Great Depression (SS and Welfare), WW2 ($748 Billion Military), 9/11 Terrorists (DHS) and now we can look forward to having some new giant government apparatus for Pandemics from here on out. Both literal and figurative wars never end for government from a spending standpoint. |
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Quoted: Please cite one example of where I have said that. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: and the one question the doomers wont answer: Was it worth collapsing the world economy to save what equates to a few day's worth of natural deaths? I wonder what this cost the world per death I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer The question of the policy response is capable of existing totally separately from the reality of the disease spread. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean you reject the math of the threat. For some reason, though, it is pervasive on this forum. And yet, you adamantly stick to the position that being critical of the response means rejection of the math. Please cite one example of where I have said that. Apologies, let me rephrase that. Should have double checked before hitting post. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean one has rejected the math of the threat. |
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Quoted: Apologies, let me rephrase that. Should have double checked before hitting post. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean one has rejected the math of the threat. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: and the one question the doomers wont answer: Was it worth collapsing the world economy to save what equates to a few day's worth of natural deaths? I wonder what this cost the world per death I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer The question of the policy response is capable of existing totally separately from the reality of the disease spread. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean you reject the math of the threat. For some reason, though, it is pervasive on this forum. And yet, you adamantly stick to the position that being critical of the response means rejection of the math. Please cite one example of where I have said that. Apologies, let me rephrase that. Should have double checked before hitting post. Being critical of the response doesn’t have to mean one has rejected the math of the threat. Agreed. But being critical of the response is not where the “flubro” label originated, not does it describe the thread after thread of derpy “where are all those deaths we were supposed to see?” “More people die of the flu every year than this,” posts. |
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Quoted: Take a stab at it. Error is ingrained in every single measurement ever made. Yet it doesn't stop you from putting gas in your car. It is literally not possible to make a decision if you cannot make projections. View Quote That non-answer re-direct would make the vilest of politicians call bullshit. This thread is dildos. OP is bad and should feel bad. |
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Your questions are poorly written so no one wants to answer.
1. 20% 2. 20k-30k 3. 20% 4. 20k-30k 5. By April 6. 0 7. 0 8. 0 Quoted: I've posed several simple questions that flu bros won't answer. Nos. 7-8 are the only new questions on the list. With every question I have posted, I have predicted that no one would answer it. Over the course of about a week, only one flu bro has answered only one of the questions, no. 6. So, flu bros, what do you say? 1. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the infection rate reach? 2. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the final death rate be? 3. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the infection rate reach? 4. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the final death rate be? 5. On what date will total deaths stop doubling every 3-4 days and the doubling rate begin to slow? 6. How many lives saved would make the current quarantine measures worth it? 7. How many would have to die before people would self-quarantine without government directives? 8. How many would have to die before people should self-quarantine of their own accord? All answers will, of course, be approximations. I am using the word quarantine loosely, to mean staying at home and procuring only essential goods and services. View Quote |
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Quoted: I've posed several simple questions that flu bros won't answer. Nos. 7-8 are the only new questions on the list. With every question I have posted, I have predicted that no one would answer it. Over the course of about a week, only one flu bro has answered only one of the questions, no. 6. So, flu bros, what do you say? 1. Cant be answered. You cant answer either 2. Stupid question. Stupid questions dont get answered. It cannot now, nor has it ever, been able to be answered. 3. Apparently it's the same even with quarantine. 4. Whatever it is when it's over? 5. On what day are you going to ask questions that are legitimate and not complete fantasy? 6. Zero 7. I wont quarantine. If I die, i die. If I come into contact with someone that is sick, that's when ill stay home. 8. No one should quarantine themselves unless they themselves are sick. All answers will, of course, be approximations. I am using the word quarantine loosely, to mean staying at home and procuring only essential goods and services. View Quote Bolded part.... Your questions are setup to be traps and anyone with intelligence wont answer them. Come back when you have non rhetorical questions. |
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If nothing else, 7&8 as reflected by, say Florida Spring Break and a lot of participants here, adequate self quarantine will not likely happen on either a large scale or with any rapidity. That's, of course, reflecting that the US is a reasonably well educated, observant, learned, forward-looking 1st world country. And while quarantine might happen in small pockets, to be fully possible, everyone has to bunker down with perhaps 3-4 weeks worth of supplies. There are a lot of people no where close to 4 weeks ready.
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Quoted: If you are at risk then isolate yourself. Problem solved. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: OP should ask, "How many flu bros think they personally will die from the disease?" Or better, "How many flu bros would willingly sacrifice their own lives to save a stranger's 401k?" I'm willing to take my chances... the same as I do every other day of the year. Life is scary, isn't it? The problem is, you aren't just taking chances with your own life. If you are at risk then isolate yourself. Problem solved. It's not as simple as that. If "we all get back to work" then high risk individuals will be faced with exposing themselves, or losing their jobs. So you would need some guarantee that high risk individuals could not be fired for refusing to risk their lives until a vaccine is available. |
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Quoted: OK, so let use "Greta Bundberg" as an example. Does Miss Bundberg have the right to value her own life as greater than the rest of humanity? Do the rest of us have to care what she thinks? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: What other kinds of questions do you think heads of state are trying to answer as they decide what appropriate countermeasures are? What are some smart questions to ask? What is the worldwide cost and death toll related to shutting down the worlds greatest economies? How will the US continue to fight disease around the world when it's economy is crippled? On a scale of $0 - All the dollars, what is the value of a single human life? The value of a single human life depends on if you ask that single person. Sure she does. For example, there is no limit to the number of people I would bankrupt to save my life or those of people I care about. And I don't expect anyone else to feel any differently. And no, we don't have to care what anyone else thinks. If I can force other people to change their behavior to make things safer for me and my family, I absolutely will. |
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