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And on the flip side. Elon has said that if Trump loses he expects to be put in jail.
Or maybe they will take him to Bohemian Grove and rip out his heart in front of the giant owl statue on a live CNN broadcast because he dared to defy the Satan worshiping weirdos who really run this country? What sounds better? Cremation of Care or Cremation of Elon. |
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It’s… probably not as bad as you think it is.
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Certified Forklift Operator
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Originally Posted By DarkGray: While a Trump win may reduce some of the regulatory hurdles, there is a lot of hardware they still have to develop. -There is a good chance they won't catch a ship for another 6 months which eats up almost a quarter of the time that have left until the Mars launch window. -Catching the booster was a huge step, but they still have to fix the heating issues on the outer ring of engines. -The v2 Ship still has to be validated and I wouldn't be surprised if it's heat shield needs refurbishment for several flights after they start catching them. -Raptor 3 engines will likely take at least one complete launch to validate (curious if they'll be forced to land in the water for the first flight). -The current tank farm cannot support more than once launch every few days and has to be scaled up significantly. -They have to build the tanker ship, perfect on orbit refueling procedures and successfully execute it ~12 times for every ship they want to send to Mars. That development can at least be done in parallel with their Artemis commitments. -The Mars lander ship is at best a hybrid of the Earth and lunar ship versions. I am convinced SpaceX can do every one of these, just much less convinced it will be done by Dec 2026. View Quote They went from Hopper to Starship V2 in 5 years... With Star Factory in full swing, 2 towers (3 if they finish the one at KSC), Raptor 3 testing going full bore, and an exponential learning curve assisted by rapid flight testing, I would not be surprised if SpaceX pulls of a "crash it on Mars" mission in 2 years. As for catching Starship, that may not be necessary *for the initial Mars mission* if they're OK expending tanker versions; of course the Mars-bound ones we'll never see again. |
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Scepticism is an exercise, not a life; it is a discipline fit to purify the mind of prejudice and render it all the more apt, when the time comes, to believe and to act wisely. -- George Santayana
Never mistake a clear view for a short distance. |
Originally Posted By Sebastian_MacMaine: Does anyone know if they will try for a full orbit, and for releasing an orbital payload, on any of these missions? From what you wrote here, 34 is the first possibility, but can 33 do it? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Sebastian_MacMaine: Originally Posted By Cobalt135: Ship 31 is likely next for launch on flight 6 and is having it's heat shield reworked I assume to match something close to ship 30 that just launched on booster 12. (tile gap fillers and blankets underneath tiles) I could see the next flight by Christmas at the speed they progress. Ship 32 was a v1 design and seems it will not fly. I don't think this would be the first time a ship design was skipped for a newer design. Ship 33 is the 1st new v2 starship and it looks like it is complete unless they decide to upgade something but will be used on booster 14 that is stacked in the high bay already. Ship 33 v2 peek during the last launch coverage.... If I remember correctly V2 ships will have the flaps positoned back closer to the top of the ship during re-entry to reduce the heating they are subjected to and hopefully prevent burn thru as we seen during the last 2 launches. And witnessed by the bouy footage the v1 ship landed on target with flap damage, so the v2 should be a marked improvement. And last, Ship 34 is already under construction. The 2nd v2 design, is being built with a payload dispenser visible (enlongated oval door) at the lower part of this image and is being moved around on site to stack with other ship sections..... Does anyone know if they will try for a full orbit, and for releasing an orbital payload, on any of these missions? From what you wrote here, 34 is the first possibility, but can 33 do it? For the next flight they have FAA approval to fly booster and ship the same flight profile as last time as long as no major changes to hardware (shouldn't be IMO). This is the quickest ticket to launch. If they decided to try for a splashdown in lets say the Pacific, not sure how that would effect the timeline for launch. They already have success with Booster 12 so it would just be tweaking some software/sensors/and any structural items (changing some weld lines was mentioned) and catching it to add to the data points. Even though next launch is the last of the V1 the same sort of testing would be expected. S33 has a payload door. I have no doubts they will be testing it's function and that of any payload handling equipment that is part of the dispenser that might be inside during the maiden launch. Not sure what we can speculate with carrying payloads until SpaceX gives a hint. Especially as long as they are keeping Starship suborbital, which means the payload will need to decay and be able to splash down or burn up without causing issues below. |
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“Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a 10mm at your side, kid.”
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Originally Posted By AJE: I figure 12 is more realistic, and probably another 12 for humans. There's a lot left to do just to get a Starship to the moon. View Quote Being able to reliably refuel in orbit is going to be quite an achievement. With that we have the possibility of the moon and deep space robotic Starship missions. That might be enough of a foundation to build the beginning of a multiplanetary civilization. Depending on the breaks, as Gen. Turgidson famously said. |
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It’s… probably not as bad as you think it is.
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Originally Posted By AJE: I figure 12 is more realistic, and probably another 12 for humans. There's a lot left to do just to get a Starship to the moon. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By AJE: Originally Posted By atavistic: That's a tall order to pull that mission together in 2 years. I figure 12 is more realistic, and probably another 12 for humans. There's a lot left to do just to get a Starship to the moon. I'm betting the missions are already planned and gamed out already. Hell, they might already have crews picked out to go in the second wave and are training them. |
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Thulsa Doom-“Consider the riddle of steel”
Hint. The riddle of steel is the will to act. |
Originally Posted By Klee: I can't believe I just might live to see that. I remember watching the Apollo missions as they happened and i'm way more excited now than I ever was then. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Klee: Originally Posted By David0858:
I can't believe I just might live to see that. I remember watching the Apollo missions as they happened and i'm way more excited now than I ever was then. Me too. I wish my brother could have lived long enough to see this. He lived, breathed and slept, believing we'd get there someday and that the future would be a better place. Me not so much. |
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Originally Posted By Andr0id: Even for the Turing Police. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Andr0id: Originally Posted By Hesperus: These cylinder habitats are going to be very heavily armed to deal with asteroids. Invading one would be quite challenging. Even for the Turing Police. That all depends on the quality of their ice. |
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Now that they know they can get starship to orbit I can't imagine they will launch too many more that are empty. Starlinks hopefully will be soon though they need to sort all the delivery mechanisms. The original payload slot was super janky.
I am still interested in how they are going to design the big payload door. I doubt they will be able to use the full interior bay like the shuttle unless they really cut a good sized door in the structure. I hope there is a prototype of that soon. |
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Veteran of the Third Battle of Tannhauser Gate.
ID, USA
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Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear: Me too. I wish my brother could have lived long enough to see this. He lived, breathed and slept, believing we'd get there someday and that the future would be a better place. Me not so much. View Quote see my sig line. rip ur brother. I lost mine a couple of years ago; he'd have loved to see what Musk is doing now. |
"The Creator may be seen in all the works of his hands, but none so clearly in the wise economy of the honey bee."
William Gibson: "The future's here. It's just not evenly distributed." |
Originally Posted By atavistic: That's a tall order to pull that mission together in 2 years. View Quote I'd believe they could send an unmanned mission to Mars in 2 years in the same spirit of prototype testing that they are doing right now here on Earth. I don't think Elon is going to want to miss a once every 26 months opportunity to test the Starship for a Mars shot and the most recent tower catch gives me more hope of the timeline moving along quickly than I had before that success. What I would have a super hard time believing is that they'd have a manned mission ready to go 26 months after that first attempt. It'd something if they even launched a manned mission to Mars by the end of this decade. There's just so many things they have to invent, design, and build for a Mars mission other than the vehicle itself. |
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Originally Posted By DarkGray: While a Trump win may reduce some of the regulatory hurdles, there is a lot of hardware they still have to develop. -There is a good chance they won't catch a ship for another 6 months which eats up almost a quarter of the time that have left until the Mars launch window. -Catching the booster was a huge step, but they still have to fix the heating issues on the outer ring of engines. -The v2 Ship still has to be validated and I wouldn't be surprised if it's heat shield needs refurbishment for several flights after they start catching them. -Raptor 3 engines will likely take at least one complete launch to validate (curious if they'll be forced to land in the water for the first flight). -The current tank farm cannot support more than once launch every few days and has to be scaled up significantly. -They have to build the tanker ship, perfect on orbit refueling procedures and successfully execute it ~12 times for every ship they want to send to Mars. That development can at least be done in parallel with their Artemis commitments. -The Mars lander ship is at best a hybrid of the Earth and lunar ship versions. I am convinced SpaceX can do every one of these, just much less convinced it will be done by Dec 2026. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By DarkGray: Originally Posted By Hadrian: Originally Posted By atavistic: That's a tall order to pull that mission together in 2 years. While a Trump win may reduce some of the regulatory hurdles, there is a lot of hardware they still have to develop. -There is a good chance they won't catch a ship for another 6 months which eats up almost a quarter of the time that have left until the Mars launch window. -Catching the booster was a huge step, but they still have to fix the heating issues on the outer ring of engines. -The v2 Ship still has to be validated and I wouldn't be surprised if it's heat shield needs refurbishment for several flights after they start catching them. -Raptor 3 engines will likely take at least one complete launch to validate (curious if they'll be forced to land in the water for the first flight). -The current tank farm cannot support more than once launch every few days and has to be scaled up significantly. -They have to build the tanker ship, perfect on orbit refueling procedures and successfully execute it ~12 times for every ship they want to send to Mars. That development can at least be done in parallel with their Artemis commitments. -The Mars lander ship is at best a hybrid of the Earth and lunar ship versions. I am convinced SpaceX can do every one of these, just much less convinced it will be done by Dec 2026. I suspect w/ Elon time they're going to either miss that 2 year window or they're going to at most get 1 or two Starships on their way to Mars. I don't see how they keep that schedule. |
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You must play the game. You can't win. You can't break even. You can't quit the game.
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Originally Posted By jhereg: I suspect w/ Elon time they're going to either miss that 2 year window or they're going to at most get 1 or two Starships on their way to Mars. I don't see how they keep that schedule. View Quote You both are acting like these problems can't be worked in parallel. |
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Originally Posted By SpanishInquisition: You both are acting like these problems can't be worked in parallel. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By SpanishInquisition: Originally Posted By jhereg: I suspect w/ Elon time they're going to either miss that 2 year window or they're going to at most get 1 or two Starships on their way to Mars. I don't see how they keep that schedule. You both are acting like these problems can't be worked in parallel. I think they're working on a lot of things in parallel. I've also watched Elon's time scales for things and he's almost always wildly optimistic as to when something will happen. I admire what he's doing but there's a hard deadline there and I don't think he's going to make it for any mass flight of the Starships to Mars on the next window. I'd like to be wrong on that, but that's the way I see it. |
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You must play the game. You can't win. You can't break even. You can't quit the game.
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Veteran of the Third Battle of Tannhauser Gate.
ID, USA
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Originally Posted By jhereg: I suspect w/ Elon time they're going to either miss that 2 year window or they're going to at most get 1 or two Starships on their way to Mars. I don't see how they keep that schedule. View Quote Okay, here's my question: The "2-year window" is for the most fuel efficient flight; what are the other windows? Must all launches fit this window? |
"The Creator may be seen in all the works of his hands, but none so clearly in the wise economy of the honey bee."
William Gibson: "The future's here. It's just not evenly distributed." |
Originally Posted By FrankSymptoms: Okay, here's my question: The "2-year window" is for the most fuel efficient flight; what are the other windows? Must all launches fit this window? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By FrankSymptoms: Originally Posted By jhereg: I suspect w/ Elon time they're going to either miss that 2 year window or they're going to at most get 1 or two Starships on their way to Mars. I don't see how they keep that schedule. Okay, here's my question: The "2-year window" is for the most fuel efficient flight; what are the other windows? Must all launches fit this window? Nope, but the fuel costs and mission duration make it not worth doing unless you get to something like a Nerva engine (nuclear thermal). |
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Originally Posted By DaGoose: Nope, but the fuel costs make it not worth doing unless you get to something like a Nerva engine (nuclear thermal). View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By DaGoose: Originally Posted By FrankSymptoms: Originally Posted By jhereg: I suspect w/ Elon time they're going to either miss that 2 year window or they're going to at most get 1 or two Starships on their way to Mars. I don't see how they keep that schedule. Okay, here's my question: The "2-year window" is for the most fuel efficient flight; what are the other windows? Must all launches fit this window? Nope, but the fuel costs make it not worth doing unless you get to something like a Nerva engine (nuclear thermal). This is a pretty good site to chart out different paths if you want. https://trajbrowser.arc.nasa.gov/traj_browser.php |
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I watched The Martian again the other night..
Per Rich Purnell, the fuel requirements are the same. RICH It's all right. All twenty-five models will take four-hundred fourteen days to reach Mars. They vary only slightly in thrust duration, and the fuel requirement is nearly identical. View Quote |
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Avatar stolen from Ranger Up.
“ If you rat on the Parade of Hope, you'll be lucky to find your toenails. These guys are the roughest of all the charities.” |
Originally Posted By ParityError: Be advised: Rich Purnell is a steely-eyed missile man. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ParityError: Originally Posted By JoseCuervo: I watched The Martian again the other night.. Per Rich Purnell, the fuel requirements are the same. Be advised: Rich Purnell is a steely-eyed missile man. “What?”... “Who the hell is Rich Purnell?” |
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Originally Posted By JPN: Mars can serve as a staging area and processing facility for mining those valuable metals from the asteroids. That seems the most plausible (currently) economic justification for a base on Mars. The asteroid belt is out past Mars, so it's a shorter trip than from Earth, and fuel can be made on Mars. Whether the mined materials end up being used on Mars, sent to Earth, the moon, or some orbital facility, is something we will have to wait and see. View Quote I'm a bit late, but... That (the above scheme) is based entirely on a graphical map of the Solar System, with the planets in their orbital lines. So Mars is nearest the Asteroids....so, logically enough, Mars is a good base for exploiting the Asteroid Belt. WRONG! CONAN! WHAT IS BE- Err....where was I? Yes. The Solar System doesn't work like that. Planets, Asteroids, and Comets are all in orbital motion around the Sun (and, in many ways, each other), and "distance" is better judged by Delta-V (the change in velocity it takes to change orbit from, say, LEO to Psyche or Mars or Mercury) and time/duration of passage, along with relative orbital synchronicity. Not how close a planet's orbital band is. So, yeah, Mars is no help at all, in exploiting the asteroids. Especially since the MOST readily-exploited asteroids are NEAs, which aren't Main Belt objects. You gain nothing (and lose quite a bit) if you are staging asteroid mining (which will be a years-long mission, each time, due to orbital mechanics) out of Mars. If you are dragging extracted material down to Mars to process, you expend ludicrous time & energy doing so. Anything that needs gravity to process can be done either in spin gravity OR on the Lunar surface (where moving it back into orbit to the end-use point is much, much cheaper-easier than up from Mars). Other than SCIENCE(!!!), Mars doesn't have much value (at this time). |
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I guess (if a Hollywood movie is even remotely correct) that supply missions can be launched whenever - with only a moderate difference in fuel, but manned missions need to be launched at optimal times. Launching outside of optimal will result in things arriving at roughly the same time anyway.
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The value of mars is you can drop valuable rocks on the surface for convenient processing without killing billions…
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Originally Posted By mousehunter: I guess (if a Hollywood movie is even remotely correct) that supply missions can be launched whenever - with only a moderate difference in fuel, but manned missions need to be launched at optimal times. Launching outside of optimal will result in things arriving at roughly the same time anyway. View Quote Not really. I think with proper pre-planning it can be done. It makes sense to me, and I could be wrong, but you coordinate whats needed by considering the time of manufacturing X quantity needed, quantity to be manufactured and distance to Mars at time of launch. You may actually manufacture the last components needed on Mars first, and launching them while Mars is furthest away allowing them to arrive last when they are needed. Or some variation of this theme. |
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Originally Posted By Jack_Of_Some_Trades: "What?"... "Who the hell is Rich Purnell?" View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Jack_Of_Some_Trades: Originally Posted By ParityError: Originally Posted By JoseCuervo: I watched The Martian again the other night.. Per Rich Purnell, the fuel requirements are the same. Be advised: Rich Purnell is a steely-eyed missile man. "What?"... "Who the hell is Rich Purnell?" |
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“There is no sound, no voice, no cry in all the world that can be heard... until someone listens.”
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free and live in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." |
Originally Posted By JoseCuervo: I watched The Martian again the other night.. Per Rich Purnell, the fuel requirements are the same. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By JoseCuervo: I watched The Martian again the other night.. Per Rich Purnell, the fuel requirements are the same. RICH It's all right. All twenty-five models will take four-hundred fourteen days to reach Mars. They vary only slightly in thrust duration, and the fuel requirement is nearly identical. For a one month window. |
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Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbGxkj-XwAAad42?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 View Quote I'm liking those block 2 upper control surfaces...looks to be more leeward and safer from plasma... |
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The long term future is a mash up of Idiocracy and 1984. "Ow, my balls" meets "He loved Big Brother". The boot on your face will likely be a big red clown shoe, but it'll be there regardless. - pmacb
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They should replace them with chines large enough that the rear flaps can do the control. That would remove some mechanical components and may offer a solution for the catch points.
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Thulsa Doom-“Consider the riddle of steel”
Hint. The riddle of steel is the will to act. |
"Freedom isn't free. It costs a hefty fuckin' fee. And if we don't toss in our buck 'o five, who will?"
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Found this cool Raptor engine diorama on Etsy:
https://www.etsy.com/listing/1792541957/space-x-raptor-rocket-engines-diorama |
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The long term future is a mash up of Idiocracy and 1984. "Ow, my balls" meets "He loved Big Brother". The boot on your face will likely be a big red clown shoe, but it'll be there regardless. - pmacb
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-Women should always wear tight clothes and men should carry powerful handguns
-Eamus Brandonus |
WSJ piece on freeing up SpaceX from regulatory red tape. See spoiler.
Click To View Spoiler Tensions between SpaceX and its federal regulators have spilled into public view. The Federal Aviation Administration is seeking $633,009 in civil fines, alleging that the company neglected necessary paperwork for two 2023 launches. SpaceX has refuted those claims in a letter to Congress, arguing that the FAA is engaged in an arbitrary and politicized prosecution from an agency unable to keep up with the demands of commercial spaceflight. CEO Elon Musk has vowed to sue the FAA for “regulatory overreach.”
The issue underscores a larger problem: The FAA’s issuing a launch license to SpaceX constitutes a “major federal action” under the National Environmental Policy Act, requiring a full environmental review and often subsequent mitigation measures. For SpaceX programs alone, this has included monitoring the discomfort of the seal population outside what is now Vandenberg Space Force Base, funding “educational outreach” about a surrounding area’s “cultural heritage,” and ensuring that the company’s operations don’t disturb the wintering grounds of the piping plover. Such provisions, however laborious for SpaceX, also impede the U.S. military’s deployment of important assets. The company’s Starship Super Heavy system, the most powerful rocket ever flown, is critical to our national defense. In the event of a conflict that damaged America’s satellite network, the Starship would offer a unique and rapid spacelift-launch system to restore pivotal navigation, communications and early-warning capabilities. Yet as global threats loom, the earliest the Space Force anticipates even finishing its environmental review process for the Starship Super Heavy to operate out of Cape Canaveral, Fla., is next autumn. This problem isn’t unique to SpaceX. Aerospace firms have become inured to years of delays, budget overruns and anemic growth. NEPA, along with other federal regulatory delays, have restricted other startups, such as Blue Origin, Varda, and Boom Aerospace, while letting incumbents like Boeing slide to disastrous effect. These issues are also of a piece with those impeding necessary build-outs of semiconductor fabs, nuclear-power plants, electrical transmission lines, natural-gas pipelines and other critical infrastructure. A growing bipartisan “Abundance Agenda” has seen recent successes in creating new categories of NEPA exemptions. Several passed the House last month, for Chips and Science Act projects and forest management. Yet tinkering at the edges likely won’t be enough to unshackle key industries from federal regulation. There is another powerful alternative rooted in America’s tradition of federalism: the interstate compact. Although the Constitution limits the states’ pre-existing sovereignty, the Compact Clause permits them to create legally binding agreements among themselves. Its only limitation is that Congress must authorize any compact that encroaches on federal power or implicates federal concerns. Once the Legislature does so, as the Supreme Court clarified in Cuyler v. Adams (1981), such compacts take on the full force of federal law. Most interstate compacts originally dealt with issues like state boundaries or water rights. Over time their use expanded to include problems states share but which require a different policy framework than they can pursue alone or via federal action. States have used compacts to create unified occupational-licensing regimes and to coordinate state taxes for multistate entities. Others have helped create well-known institutions—such as the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority—which regulate interstate and international commerce in a way otherwise reserved for the federal government. This vehicle is prime for states concerned about threats to American prosperity and sovereignty, including as relates to space development. Gulf Coast states have a particular interest in advancing American commercial spaceflight and stand to lose the most from FAA suffocation. They maintain some of the most important launch sites, training facilities and manufacturing plants, and they have tens of thousands of jobs connected to the space industry. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida might therefore consider banding together to create a Space Coast Compact. The terms could establish the authorities, structure and governance of a Space Coast Launch Authority with the right to review plans and issue launch permits for aircraft and spacecraft operating in the signatory states. The new authority, an alternate to the FAA, would be accountable to the states’ governments, staffed by those who actually want to launch aircraft, and exempt from NEPA and other strictures that uniquely bind federal action. The authority could still retain a consultative relationship with the FAA, but the compact would break the chokehold of federal bureaucracy. Because the compact would affect only its signatories, achieving a simple congressional approval would be much more realistic than a genuine overhaul of the FAA, which received its quinquennial reauthorization this year. The ideal solution to our nation’s regulatory woes would be to reform America’s sclerotic federal institutions. But while we await fuller reform, states that want to forge a future for their residents should lean into interstate compacts to create zones of freedom where man can still boldly go where none has gone before. Mr. Askonas is assistant professor of politics at the Catholic University of America and a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation. Mr. Berry is managing partner of the law and strategy firm Boyden Gray PLLC. |
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dfwlabrescue.org
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Originally Posted By BB: There's nothing 'convenient' about processing in an intermediate gravity well. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By BB: Originally Posted By TX_Critter: The value of mars is you can drop valuable rocks on the surface for convenient processing without killing billions… There's nothing 'convenient' about processing in an intermediate gravity well. Need gravity for all known metallurgical processes, gravity is much cheaper when you don’t have to make it yourself. Mars is low enough gravity and pressure that many unconventional launch options are available that do not work on earth. I don’t remember if it was about the moon or mars but I remember reading a paper about orbital elevators where they can be built with steel instead of magical carbon nanobullshit like on earth. |
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Originally Posted By RarestRX: Found this cool Raptor engine diorama on Etsy: type Status report message description Access to the specified resource has been forbidden. Apache Tomcat/7.0.68 (Ubuntu) |