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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:38:36 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This battery pretty much signals the end of the fossil fuel age. ~$50/KWh is much better than I was expecting. ICE cars are going to seem absolutely dumb in comparison by about 2025. I'm sure GD galaxybrains will disagree right until the bitter end just like with coal though.  Attached FileYou'll have to tear my ICE from my cold dead right foot and all that... 
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:38:40 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This battery pretty much signals the end of the fossil fuel age. ~$50/KWh is much better than I was expecting. ICE cars are going to seem absolutely dumb in comparison by about 2025. I'm sure GD galaxybrains will disagree right until the bitter end just like with coal though. They're coal powered cars. And d-cell battery day was sooo impressive it only cost $22,000,000,000 in market cap. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:39:46 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The kind of car you can buy after 2025 for a set amount of money will favor the EV heavily... Unless people want to spend more money on a slower car with much higher maintenance and fuel costs. Every year it will be more obvious. The 2025 base model 3 will be better than today's M3 performance, and the 2025 M3 performance will probably be an 800 hp monster with 500 miles of range. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: "By 2025 ICE will look really dumb" By 2050? Sure, why not. But we'll have cold fusion by then, so power will be less of an issue.  The kind of car you can buy after 2025 for a set amount of money will favor the EV heavily... Unless people want to spend more money on a slower car with much higher maintenance and fuel costs. Every year it will be more obvious. The 2025 base model 3 will be better than today's M3 performance, and the 2025 M3 performance will probably be an 800 hp monster with 500 miles of range. Maybe if we keep raising taxes on fuel and ICE, and subsidizing electrics. Oil is the cheapest it's been in a long time, and seems to show no letting up. Plus it's made here, unlike lithium. That Tesla monster that draws more power than my Challenger; did it have to pay a gas guzzler tax, too? Has CA actually passed the road-use surcharge it was talking about for electric drivers, who are using roads without paying fuel tax for their upkeep? |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:40:27 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ok, so is there an EV to include price of home charging station that can match the price of the kia shitbox? Assuming same range or so of about 350mi. Did a google search of the current cheapest cars in the US for 2020. Kia Forte - $18,715 Kia Soul - $18,535 Chevrolet Sonic - $17,595 Honda Fit - $17,120 Kia Rio - $16,675 Toyota Yaris - $16,555 Hyundai Accent - $15,925 Nissan Versa - $15,625 Mitsubishi Mirage - $14,990 Chevrolet Spark - $14,095 If you want to buy a cheap shitbox, no one is stopping you. Doesn't have anything to do with refueling convenience, though, which is what I was talking about. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:41:16 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This battery pretty much signals the end of the fossil fuel age. ~$50/KWh is much better than I was expecting. ICE cars are going to seem absolutely dumb in comparison by about 2025. I'm sure GD galaxybrains will disagree right until the bitter end just like with coal though. I may have to leave Ca to buy gasoline by that time but I will gladly buy up all the stupid muscle cars and aports cars that people no longer want. Fuck pure electric. Hybrid maybe but pure electric is a joke as far as making us more dependant on the grid and changing peak hours. But then that opinion comes from living in Ca and seeing poor decisions with regards to the grid and cheap abdundant energy production. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:42:24 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If you want to buy a cheap shitbox, no one is stopping you. Doesn't have anything to do with refueling convenience, though, which is what I was talking about. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Ok, so is there an EV to include price of home charging station that can match the price of the kia shitbox? Assuming same range or so of about 350mi. Did a google search of the current cheapest cars in the US for 2020. Kia Forte - $18,715 Kia Soul - $18,535 Chevrolet Sonic - $17,595 Honda Fit - $17,120 Kia Rio - $16,675 Toyota Yaris - $16,555 Hyundai Accent - $15,925 Nissan Versa - $15,625 Mitsubishi Mirage - $14,990 Chevrolet Spark - $14,095 If you want to buy a cheap shitbox, no one is stopping you. Doesn't have anything to do with refueling convenience, though, which is what I was talking about. Not about me, I am considering what it would take for widespread acceptance and use. This is what EV is currently up against in price. Re-read and saw mention of 'refueling', true, if you can get folks out of the mindset of 'gas station' and into plug in at home overnight (and build about 30 or 40 nuke reactors) then yea.....but there is still pricing to consider. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:45:48 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Maybe if we keep raising taxes on fuel and ICE, and subsidizing electrics. Oil is the cheapest it's been in a long time, and seems to show no letting up. Plus it's made here, unlike lithium. That Tesla monster that draws more power than my Challenger; did it have to pay a gas guzzler tax, too? Has CA actually passed the road-use surcharge it was talking about for electric drivers, who are using roads without paying fuel tax for their upkeep? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: "By 2025 ICE will look really dumb" By 2050? Sure, why not. But we'll have cold fusion by then, so power will be less of an issue. The kind of car you can buy after 2025 for a set amount of money will favor the EV heavily... Unless people want to spend more money on a slower car with much higher maintenance and fuel costs. Every year it will be more obvious. The 2025 base model 3 will be better than today's M3 performance, and the 2025 M3 performance will probably be an 800 hp monster with 500 miles of range. Maybe if we keep raising taxes on fuel and ICE, and subsidizing electrics. Oil is the cheapest it's been in a long time, and seems to show no letting up. Plus it's made here, unlike lithium. That Tesla monster that draws more power than my Challenger; did it have to pay a gas guzzler tax, too? Has CA actually passed the road-use surcharge it was talking about for electric drivers, who are using roads without paying fuel tax for their upkeep? Not just California. Alabama has a surcharge for EVs, and I’d imagine many more states do as well. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:48:35 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If you want to buy a cheap shitbox, no one is stopping you. Doesn't have anything to do with refueling convenience, though, which is what I was talking about. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Ok, so is there an EV to include price of home charging station that can match the price of the kia shitbox? Assuming same range or so of about 350mi. Did a google search of the current cheapest cars in the US for 2020. Kia Forte - $18,715 Kia Soul - $18,535 Chevrolet Sonic - $17,595 Honda Fit - $17,120 Kia Rio - $16,675 Toyota Yaris - $16,555 Hyundai Accent - $15,925 Nissan Versa - $15,625 Mitsubishi Mirage - $14,990 Chevrolet Spark - $14,095 If you want to buy a cheap shitbox, no one is stopping you. Doesn't have anything to do with refueling convenience, though, which is what I was talking about. It kinda does, insofar as it demonstrates that ICE is easier to deal with as far as time and cost. Fuel is not insignificant of course, but it's a fraction of the lifetime cost of an ICE system in most applications, so a 1/4 drop in fuel cost for a 2x increase in platform price doesn't balance. Which is why the real place electrics compete with ICE is performance cars, which have nothing to do with practicality, only squealy-servo-motor awesomeness. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:50:33 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I may have to leave Ca to buy gasoline by that time but I will gladly buy up all the stupid muscle cars and aports cars that people no longer want. Fuck pure electric. Hybrid maybe but pure electric is a joke as far as making us more dependant on the grid and changing peak hours. But then that opinion comes from living in Ca and seeing poor decisions with regards to the grid and cheap abdundant energy production. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: This battery pretty much signals the end of the fossil fuel age. ~$50/KWh is much better than I was expecting. ICE cars are going to seem absolutely dumb in comparison by about 2025. I'm sure GD galaxybrains will disagree right until the bitter end just like with coal though. I may have to leave Ca to buy gasoline by that time but I will gladly buy up all the stupid muscle cars and aports cars that people no longer want. Fuck pure electric. Hybrid maybe but pure electric is a joke as far as making us more dependant on the grid and changing peak hours. But then that opinion comes from living in Ca and seeing poor decisions with regards to the grid and cheap abdundant energy production. As a kid who's parents' industry (aluminum smelting) was destroyed by Enron's manipulation of electricity markets, I concur. Not that oil doesn't get manipulated, but it is intrinsically more resistant to such games. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:50:58 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The 18650 or 21700 batteries are not as big a risk as much perceive. The notion that they burst into flames at a minor dent comes from RC Li batteries that are designed for much greater power out and so are much more unstable and prone to heat problems when charging and discharging. Can the Tesla batteries fire off, sure, but it takes a bit more than most people believe. Since you went there. I can charge most of my Lithium Polymer RC packs at a higher rate than any Lithium Ion 18650/21700. I can reach 3c or 5c on my RC high discharge LiPo packs while the 18650 high discharge cells I use can only be charged at .5 C or 1C. And since the 18650s will discharge down below 3 volts(LiPos spent at about 3.6v) that means well over an hour charge time. That is a huge difference. I suspect that Tesla charges to a lower voltage of maybe 4.1 volts or less instead of carrying up to 4.15 or 4.2 volts. Not sure what tesla does to reach such fast charge times but it is in excess of LiPo rates. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 10:54:22 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They're coal powered cars. And d-cell battery day was sooo impressive it only cost $22,000,000,000 in market cap. Coal is dying bub. 
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:00:01 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Can your Kia shitbox fill it's own gas tank up overnight and leave with a full tank every day at a cost that it 4-5x lower per mile than a gas station? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You are underestimating the value a large portion of the population puts on convenience over pretentious statements via vehicle choice. It is a legitimate concern that will need to be addressed before EVs can and will be more widely accepted. "Can I refill it quickly and with no hassle as easily as my $15,000 kia shitbox?" Can your Kia shitbox fill it's own gas tank up overnight and leave with a full tank every day at a cost that it 4-5x lower per mile than a gas station? you're assuming the shitbox's owner has access to charging at home IMO, the biggest roadblock (especially for us poors and/or renters) is being able to charge at home and/or at work |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:03:21 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It kinda does, insofar as it demonstrates that ICE is easier to deal with as far as time and cost. Fuel is not insignificant of course, but it's a fraction of the lifetime cost of an ICE system in most applications, so a 1/4 drop in fuel cost for a 2x increase in platform price doesn't balance. Which is why the real place electrics compete with ICE is performance cars, which have nothing to do with practicality, only squealy-servo-motor awesomeness. You really suck at math, no wonder you have such garbage takes.  A car that gets 25 mpg and lasts 200,000 miles will use $20,000 of gasoline over it's lifetime at $2.5 per gallon. A Model 3 that gets 4m/KWh will use $6,000 in electricity over the same period. Maintenance costs are also much lower for an EV. No oil change Brakes last longer etc Add the two together and you're easily talking about $20,000+ in O&M savings over the life of the vehicle. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:04:46 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not just California. Alabama has a surcharge for EVs, and I’d imagine many more states do as well. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: "By 2025 ICE will look really dumb" By 2050? Sure, why not. But we'll have cold fusion by then, so power will be less of an issue. The kind of car you can buy after 2025 for a set amount of money will favor the EV heavily... Unless people want to spend more money on a slower car with much higher maintenance and fuel costs. Every year it will be more obvious. The 2025 base model 3 will be better than today's M3 performance, and the 2025 M3 performance will probably be an 800 hp monster with 500 miles of range. Maybe if we keep raising taxes on fuel and ICE, and subsidizing electrics. Oil is the cheapest it's been in a long time, and seems to show no letting up. Plus it's made here, unlike lithium. That Tesla monster that draws more power than my Challenger; did it have to pay a gas guzzler tax, too? Has CA actually passed the road-use surcharge it was talking about for electric drivers, who are using roads without paying fuel tax for their upkeep? Not just California. Alabama has a surcharge for EVs, and I’d imagine many more states do as well. Indiana I have to pay a tax for my Tesla and my wife’s Fusion Energi. When we aren’t driving one of those her big Nissan van gets mid teens mpg about the same as my 6.7 F250. We are paying a lot of road tax. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:07:51 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your scenario doesn't account for being able to charge at home, businesses, etc. With ICE you have to go to a gas station to fill up. With ICE you can also carry or store additional range at home or even on your vehicle, with very little additional cost. I can EASILY carry an additional full range on my vehicle. This is significant in emergencies or when traveling in remote areas, which I do often enough to warrant the minor cost associated with doing so. I doubt I would be able to have the same capability in an EV without significantly greater cost. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:09:43 AM EDT
[#16]
BTW, converting our entire car fleet to electric would require about 1,000 TWh of electricity.
Spread out over a two decade adoption period and put in a historical context, that looks like this (the red line):  Clearly impossible.... People really underestimate how dogshit the efficiency of small ICE engines are. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:10:53 AM EDT
[#17]
Lithium Titanate?
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:12:03 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You really suck at math, no wonder you have such garbage takes. A car that gets 25 mpg and lasts 200,000 miles will use $20,000 of gasoline over it's lifetime at $2.5 per gallon. A Model 3 that gets 4m/KWh will use $6,000 in electricity over the same period. Maintenance costs are also much lower for an EV. No oil change Brakes last longer etc Add the two together and you're easily talking about $20,000+ in O&M savings over the life of the vehicle. And you get a nice car that’s not a slow piece of shit. Not sure about the model 3 but my model S has an 8 year unlimited mile warranty on the battery and drive units. Mine also has free supercharging for life, but I rarely use it. My car is charged up every morning though! |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:18:54 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: you're assuming the shitbox's owner has access to charging at home IMO, the biggest roadblock (especially for us poors and/or renters) is being able to charge at home and/or at work Very true. It will take time for charging to be available in places like apartment and townhome parking. It's not going to be an overnight switch, and it's not going to be a solution for everyone in all circumstances, but if there is a big improvement in battery tech, it will spur a spike in adoption rates. I could see 20-30% of new vehicles sales being electric or plug-in hybrids within ten years of the tech becoming available. I think it's currently about 2% or so. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:25:54 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Very true. It will take time for charging to be available in places like apartment and townhome parking. It's not going to be an overnight switch, and it's not going to be a solution for everyone in all circumstances, but if there is a big improvement in battery tech, it will spur a spike in adoption rates. I could see 20-30% of new vehicles sales being electric or plug-in hybrids within ten years of the tech becoming available. I think it's currently about 2% or so. New vehicle sales will switch over much sooner than that. Total fleet will take longer though. There will be no reason for ~80% of new car owners to chose an ICE over an EV by 2030. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:40:10 AM EDT
[#21]
Looks like battery day was a flop.
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:51:32 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Very true. It will take time for charging to be available in places like apartment and townhome parking. It's not going to be an overnight switch, and it's not going to be a solution for everyone in all circumstances, but if there is a big improvement in battery tech, it will spur a spike in adoption rates. I could see 20-30% of new vehicles sales being electric or plug-in hybrids within ten years of the tech becoming available. I think it's currently about 2% or so. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: you're assuming the shitbox's owner has access to charging at home IMO, the biggest roadblock (especially for us poors and/or renters) is being able to charge at home and/or at work Very true. It will take time for charging to be available in places like apartment and townhome parking. It's not going to be an overnight switch, and it's not going to be a solution for everyone in all circumstances, but if there is a big improvement in battery tech, it will spur a spike in adoption rates. I could see 20-30% of new vehicles sales being electric or plug-in hybrids within ten years of the tech becoming available. I think it's currently about 2% or so. I don't know how it is in the US, but here in Canada the rate of home ownership has been relatively flat for the better part of the past 20 years. Perhaps offering tax credits to landlords for installing charging at rental properties is a solution? more fast chargers could mitigate that issue with home charging? |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 11:58:02 AM EDT
[#23]
Sandy Munroe seems to agree with me...
"If I was an OEM CEO, I'd be wetting my shorts....This battery is the end of the ICE age" |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:09:07 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: New vehicle sales will switch over much sooner than that. Total fleet will take longer though. There will be no reason for ~80% of new car owners to chose an ICE over an EV by 2030. It takes less than 10 mins to take an average ICE vehicle from 0% charge to 100%. I can perform that task in hundreds of locations in any city, or even in rural, out-of-the-way places. If you only commute 10 minutes to work and back and never make multiday road trips, you probably won’t understand how that’s important. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:22:10 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: BTW, converting our entire car fleet to electric would require about 1,000 TWh of electricity. Spread out over a two decade adoption period and put in a historical context, that looks like this (the red line): https://i.imgur.com/em37zhw.png Clearly impossible.... People really underestimate how dogshit the efficiency of small ICE engines are. So your going to replace 1,000,000,000,000 kwh of coal with ? and pull an additional 1,000,000,000,000 kwh out of a hat. Who is the galxaybrain? |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:23:09 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You don't understand. Solar is getting absurdly cheap, not just sort-of-cheap, I can build a 10kw (Less inversion) system for $2,500. This is enough juice at my house to give a car 300+ miles of range a day, EASY. The lifespan of said solar panels is ~20 years. That's 2.19 MILLION MILES worth of power I can make for a $2,500 fee. If your average gas powered car gets say 30mpg , that's equal to making 73,000 gallons of gasoline, or gas for 3.4 cents a gallon. There's always been a point that it becomes VERY stupid to not do solar......and that time is now close to the horizion. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It's fun and games until there are rolling blackouts and you can't charge your EV. You don't understand. Solar is getting absurdly cheap, not just sort-of-cheap, I can build a 10kw (Less inversion) system for $2,500. This is enough juice at my house to give a car 300+ miles of range a day, EASY. The lifespan of said solar panels is ~20 years. That's 2.19 MILLION MILES worth of power I can make for a $2,500 fee. If your average gas powered car gets say 30mpg , that's equal to making 73,000 gallons of gasoline, or gas for 3.4 cents a gallon. There's always been a point that it becomes VERY stupid to not do solar......and that time is now close to the horizion. Where the hell are you getting a 10KW solar system for $2,500? 
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:24:10 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Where the hell are you getting a 10KW solar system for $2,500? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: It's fun and games until there are rolling blackouts and you can't charge your EV. You don't understand. Solar is getting absurdly cheap, not just sort-of-cheap, I can build a 10kw (Less inversion) system for $2,500. This is enough juice at my house to give a car 300+ miles of range a day, EASY. The lifespan of said solar panels is ~20 years. That's 2.19 MILLION MILES worth of power I can make for a $2,500 fee. If your average gas powered car gets say 30mpg , that's equal to making 73,000 gallons of gasoline, or gas for 3.4 cents a gallon. There's always been a point that it becomes VERY stupid to not do solar......and that time is now close to the horizion. Where the hell are you getting a 10KW solar system for $2,500? 
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:24:14 PM EDT
[#28]
I have some questions for the owners of Teslas.Granted they are not battery questions.
Have you ever been in an accident with your Tesla? How long did it take to get it back to pre accident shape? How much did getting it fixed cost. How much of a pain was getting it fixed? |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:26:08 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: New vehicle sales will switch over much sooner than that. Total fleet will take longer though. There will be no reason for ~80% of new car owners to chose an ICE over an EV by 2030. You've never spent much time around old people, have you? A lot of people won't want it, just because it's unfamiliar. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:33:01 PM EDT
[#30]
Oh hell yeah! I'll be able to fly my RC planes all day on one charge!
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:36:01 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh hell yeah! I'll be able to fly my RC planes all day on one charge! The NSA's surveillance drones are prepared.... |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:43:09 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Gasoline doesn't thermal runaway, self-oxidize, or get very angry and mean when it comes into contact with H2O Someone's angry because they don't like change. Posted probably by something with a lithium battery I bet too... |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 12:56:18 PM EDT
[#33]
Certain people here are forgetting history. When Musk says a new game changer technology is coming soon, assume it's vaporware until you actually take delivery.
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Posted: 9/23/2020 1:00:06 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Someone's angry because they don't like change. Posted probably by something with a lithium battery I bet too... Don’t forget lithium doesn’t turn into an explosive vapor. Also a wreck big enough to damage the battery is extremely likely to of totaled the vehicle (before the battery does if they can’t stop the fire) this will be even more true for future models with their new designs. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 1:07:55 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ah, OH, that explains it. We get hail down south. Your whole house solar is a drop in the bucket for powering a car, I'm afraid. Think like a week per charge. And if you're charging at night off a storage battery, the losses compound quite a bit. Solar makes sense when the grid is not available, and cheap panels make it nearly practical to live where there is no grid (as in you aren't foregoing many comforts). You will be forgoing an electric car, however. 10kw system = 10 kilowatts of power per hour of sunlight. Teslas get about 4 miles per kilowatt of power. So , in the instance of Florida, there's an average of 6 peak-hours a day , year round (With all variations taken into account). That's 6hrs * 10kw * 4mi = 240 miles of drive time per day of solar production. Using a 30mpg average vehicle, your house or array is generating 8 gallons of "Free" gasoline equivalent a day. Here in Ohio it'd be 180mi/day or 6 gallon-equivalence of gasoline. There's hundreds of certified calculation systems to see what works, in real life. The problem CURRENTLY is battery storage. To capture that level of power you need a $20,000+ battery storage system to deal with it. What Tesla's proposing will drop that down to the $3k-$5k range which is much, much more manageable. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 1:10:02 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ok, so is there an EV to include price of home charging station that can match the price of the kia shitbox? Assuming same range or so of about 350mi. Did a quick google search of the current cheapest cars in the US for 2020. Kia Forte - $18,715 Kia Soul - $18,535 Chevrolet Sonic - $17,595 Honda Fit - $17,120 Kia Rio - $16,675 Toyota Yaris - $16,555 Hyundai Accent - $15,925 Nissan Versa - $15,625 Mitsubishi Mirage - $14,990 Chevrolet Spark - $14,095 Home charging stations run $500ish. All you're doing is wiring a 220v outlet to your main service panel. 220v @ 60a will charge any electric car overnight in a breeze. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 1:15:30 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: New vehicle sales will switch over much sooner than that. Total fleet will take longer though. There will be no reason for ~80% of new car owners to chose an ICE over an EV by 2030. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Very true. It will take time for charging to be available in places like apartment and townhome parking. It's not going to be an overnight switch, and it's not going to be a solution for everyone in all circumstances, but if there is a big improvement in battery tech, it will spur a spike in adoption rates. I could see 20-30% of new vehicles sales being electric or plug-in hybrids within ten years of the tech becoming available. I think it's currently about 2% or so. New vehicle sales will switch over much sooner than that. Total fleet will take longer though. There will be no reason for ~80% of new car owners to chose an ICE over an EV by 2030. I think that’s a bit optimistic, I think ICE will cling on for at least a decade more, do not forget the technology supporting ICE will improve in that time too, and that other companies switching will not have all the advantages other early adaptors will, odds are there will be some companies that will sink due to sunk costs in ice on top of that. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 1:17:47 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOff lease solar, purchased by the intermodal-level container. It's 25c a watt or less. Cheapest i've seen in past year was below 15c/watt. I'll be doing a youtube series about it soon, it's so cheap we'll start putting it on my low-level rentals. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 1:19:16 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Very true. It will take time for charging to be available in places like apartment and townhome parking. It's not going to be an overnight switch, and it's not going to be a solution for everyone in all circumstances, but if there is a big improvement in battery tech, it will spur a spike in adoption rates. I could see 20-30% of new vehicles sales being electric or plug-in hybrids within ten years of the tech becoming available. I think it's currently about 2% or so. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: you're assuming the shitbox's owner has access to charging at home IMO, the biggest roadblock (especially for us poors and/or renters) is being able to charge at home and/or at work Very true. It will take time for charging to be available in places like apartment and townhome parking. It's not going to be an overnight switch, and it's not going to be a solution for everyone in all circumstances, but if there is a big improvement in battery tech, it will spur a spike in adoption rates. I could see 20-30% of new vehicles sales being electric or plug-in hybrids within ten years of the tech becoming available. I think it's currently about 2% or so. Ironically, I work in an oil refinery and we have charging available in our parking lot. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 3:11:42 PM EDT
[#40]
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Posted: 9/23/2020 3:14:09 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryGood luck with that given how California loves rolling blackouts. BTW didn't California ban solar roofs? |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 3:21:46 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Good luck with that given how California loves rolling blackouts. BTW didn't California ban solar roofs? California has no clue what they're doing. They're the definition of the stupidity of government and politicians. Here in Ohio costs me $150 to put a car charger in my house. In California, that cost is easily $2,500 due to permitting and the general stupidity of everything that is California. So instead of lowering building requirements, permits, etc? What do they do? They make the alternative illegal. Then wonder why businesses leave, the cost of housing goes up, etc. |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 9:31:48 PM EDT
[#43]
ICE vs. Electric?
Oh, I'm sorry. I thought this was Arfcom. The correct answer is get both! |
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Posted: 9/23/2020 9:42:44 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Certain people here are forgetting history. When Musk says a new game changer technology is coming soon, assume it's vaporware until you actually take delivery. This. He occasionally delivers. He often teases investors with dreams that aren't ready for the tarmac. I'm still waiting for my city built around Segways, so I'm probably jaded about Utopia. |
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Posted: 9/24/2020 7:04:40 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryCalifornia is fucking retarded. I mean, ICE will obsolete and probably be down to ~10% of sales by then, but those 10% should be able to buy them if they want to. They should instead be focused on fixing their third world quality grid. |
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Posted: 9/24/2020 7:16:27 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So your going to replace 1,000,000,000,000 kwh of coal with ? and pull an additional 1,000,000,000,000 kwh out of a hat. Who is the galxaybrain? There is plenty of gas, and solar is getting cheap af. The future growth of US generation will probably look something like this: 
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Posted: 9/24/2020 7:22:31 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's fun and games until there are rolling blackouts and you can't charge your EV.  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/24/2020 1:53:03 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote History Quoted:This battery pretty much signals the end of the fossil fuel age. ~$50/KWh is much better than I was expecting. ICE cars are going to seem absolutely dumb in comparison by about 2025. I'm sure GD galaxybrains will disagree right until the bitter end just like with coal though. |
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Posted: 9/24/2020 2:02:37 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This battery pretty much signals the end of the fossil fuel age. ~$50/KWh is much better than I was expecting. ICE cars are going to seem absolutely dumb in comparison by about 2025. I'm sure GD galaxybrains will disagree right until the bitter end just like with coal though. Just wait for the coming tax road mile tax and battery disposal free. Then all the environmental lawsuits from the hazardous waste of the batterys. |
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Posted: 9/25/2020 8:36:02 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As a kid who's parents' industry (aluminum smelting) was destroyed by Enron's manipulation of electricity markets, I concur. Not that oil doesn't get manipulated, but it is intrinsically more resistant to such games. |
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