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Posted: 8/21/2024 9:16:41 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: Incursion? Why not just say invasion? It’s not an invasion, that would be a war. It’s a special liberation operation. |
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Posted: 8/21/2024 9:20:00 PM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: Incursion? Why not just say invasion? Liberation of Russia |
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Posted: 8/21/2024 9:22:47 PM EST
[Last Edit: Mal_means_bad]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: All of that can and likely is true, but the numbers still don't make sense to me. If a population is 30% or so military age males, Russia should have tens of millions to work with. Their losses are in the thousands. If you need $800 for rent Thursday and you have $805 then you can't afford a Big Mac Wednesday, even though you have $805. The excess $5 isn't enough to cover your increased demands on it without failing to do something else vital. In 2022 the Russians had X million men fit for the labor force, most of whom were working - those fit but not working were just a small fraction of X million. The better part of a million left to dodge the draft, some dodgers are in Russia making themselves scarce or paying officials off, 300,000-odd enlisted are living in trenches instead of going home to work, 600,000 are claimed dead or seriously injured (probably actually less than that, but studies of obituaries and Russian benefits data suggest that's at least in the parking lot of the ballpark). At the same time the labor demands of the economy have been significantly increased by war production and support services. We know directly from the Russians that they're using skilled specialists for infantry, stripping security services to the bone a year after a large coup attempt (and terrorism and sabotage and enemy SOF), parking transport and risking rail system collapse for lack of labor, work forces are reportedly falling at some war factories, and the Army is paying the equivalent of 2+ years wage in enlistment bonuses. That's got desperation written all over it. |
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Posted: 8/21/2024 9:26:29 PM EST
[#4]
Don't forget the large number of highly-educated young men that left the country early on. There were reportedly about a million of those alone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
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Posted: 8/21/2024 9:27:43 PM EST
[Last Edit: Cincinnatus]
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: Incursion? Why not just say invasion? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Russia is not moving troops from Donetsk to repel the Ukrainian incursion. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-aerospace-forces-troops-kursk-incursion-1940995 Incursion? Why not just say invasion? In the middle of an ongoing war that began with an invasion? That would be illogical That’s like calling a counterpunch, an assault. |
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Posted: 8/21/2024 9:32:52 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wayfaerer320: That's what I've been reading - the Russians are sending the B and C teams to deal with Kursk. lol |
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CO, USA
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Posted: 8/21/2024 10:24:31 PM EST
[#7]
It could be a hedge for a donald trump presidency. He has stated he will end the war by forcing negotiations. If ukraine is holding a huge chunk of russia in november and trump wins its a great temporary place to be as trump has stated he will open the flood gates on aid if russia is perceived to be the party preventing a reasonable peace deal, i'm sure based on the situation on the ground which would likely be "call it quits here" essentially.
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USA
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Posted: 8/21/2024 10:25:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: MojaveVtwin]
[#8]
It would be amazing if they could somehow refuel rearm and head directly into Moscow to level red square
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Posted: 8/21/2024 10:49:31 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MojaveVtwin: It would be amazing if they could somehow refuel rearm and head directly into Moscow to level red square They would have no homes to go back to after all the nukes if they push that far. |
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Posted: 8/21/2024 10:56:50 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Commando223: They would have no homes to go back to after all the nukes if they push that far. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Commando223: Originally Posted By MojaveVtwin: It would be amazing if they could somehow refuel rearm and head directly into Moscow to level red square They would have no homes to go back to after all the nukes if they push that far. Zelinsky has said that he's proven that there are no longer any Russian red lines, that Russia will not respond with nukes. He said so. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 8/21/2024 11:20:04 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MojaveVtwin: It would be amazing if they could somehow refuel rearm and head directly into Moscow to level red square Russia would nuke them. Russian nuclear plans were retaliation/counter strike -or- if the homeland was being invaded. I don’t recall if they planned on using tactical nukes if they went in to Europe, which was never really their plan. The Us had tac nukes set up to repel and invasion. At any rate, the UKR seems to have pulled off quite the operation, I hope they know when to get out. |
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USA
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Posted: 8/21/2024 11:39:34 PM EST
[Last Edit: FALFOX]
[#12]
Major news outlets reporting drone attacks on the outskirts of Moscow in the last 24 hours. I didn't see anything about this in any of the ongoing threads.
 Ukraine intensifies drone attacks in Russia, targeting Moscow overnight  Ukraine launches largest ever drone attack on Moscow  Russia says Ukraine targeted Moscow with drone attack |
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Posted: 8/21/2024 11:48:19 PM EST
[#13]
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Posted: 8/21/2024 11:59:33 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By walkinginadangerzone: Escape from New York.  Saw that in theaters, the spike to the head and Andriene Boobs Barbeau getting run over freaked me out as a kid |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:03:49 AM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: Incursion? Why not just say invasion? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Russia is not moving troops from Donetsk to repel the Ukrainian incursion. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-aerospace-forces-troops-kursk-incursion-1940995 Incursion? Why not just say invasion? It's an offensive or counterattack in response to attempted invasion. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:07:57 AM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doublecheez: Hoping Ukraine goes all General Sherman on Russia. Bastards deserve it. https://d3m7xw68ay40x8.cloudfront.net/assets/2015/02/01121315/sherman-march.jpg So scorched earth?  Putin don't give a shit about the Russian people. I wouldn't be surprised if they burn everything in front of the Ukrainian advance, if they get more meaningful ground. If memory serves, that's what they did to Napoleon. |
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USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:11:00 AM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: There are a bunch of reports that Ukraine is now doing something inside Bryansk Oblast, Russia which is on Russia's border with Belarus. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVhuGd7WAAApwou?format=jpg&name=360x360 Not sure if a raid or something bigger.
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USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:26:22 AM EST
[#18]
So what happens to the ukes when the Russians get in behind them and cut off their logistics ?
Zelensky couldn't save his own guys when they got trapped in that huge steel mill complex a couple years ago. Or in Bukmut ? Seems the ukes are way out on a limb in Russia. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:36:56 AM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FALFOX: Major news outlets reporting drone attacks on the outskirts of Moscow in the last 24 hours. I didn't see anything about this in any of the ongoing threads.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWQZmGm8_Sw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9Mkgr4vKJc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNfeDKckZGYso Ukraine is showing that they can bomb Moscow with impunity. Putin won't use his nukes on Ukraine for fear of nuke retaliation from US, France, etc, I guess. Not even a small, tiny tactical nuke, because, politically, a nuke is a nuke, and once you open that door ... |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:54:08 AM EST
[Last Edit: BillofRights]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VEPR39: So what happens to the ukes when the Russians get in behind them and cut off their logistics ? Zelensky couldn't save his own guys when they got trapped in that huge steel mill complex a couple years ago. Or in Bukmut ? Seems the ukes are way out on a limb in Russia. War is dangerous. If Russia was capable, they could capture an entire Battalion and all of our Putin worshippers would have something to crow about. We shall see. Time will tell. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 1:12:21 AM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VEPR39: So what happens to the ukes when the Russians get in behind them and cut off their logistics ? Zelensky couldn't save his own guys when they got trapped in that huge steel mill complex a couple years ago. Or in Bukmut ? Seems the ukes are way out on a limb in Russia. How are the Russians going to get behind them? |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 3:54:06 AM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VEPR39: So what happens to the ukes when the Russians get in behind them and cut off their logistics ? Zelensky couldn't save his own guys when they got trapped in that huge steel mill complex a couple years ago. Or in Bukmut ? Seems the ukes are way out on a limb in Russia. What does it mean if that doesn't happen? |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 4:50:52 AM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: It’s not an invasion, that would be a war. It’s a special liberation operation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By Subpar: Incursion? Why not just say invasion? It’s not an invasion, that would be a war. It’s a special liberation operation. Russia plays word games to avoid formally calling it a war. a war declaration triggers certain things (such as martial law) that would risk internal turmoil in Russia. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 6:07:45 AM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dillydilly:
The special military operation to liberate ethnic Ukrainian speakers continues! |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 8:18:46 AM EST
[#25]
Zeihan's latest analysis.
 Ukraine Pushes Into Russia, Yet Nukes Didn't Fly... || Peter Zeihan |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 8:20:28 AM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryPutin, the only person who can draw more red lines than Obama.
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Posted: 8/22/2024 8:25:34 AM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By governmentman: Russia plays word games to avoid formally calling it a war. a war declaration triggers certain things (such as martial law) that would risk internal turmoil in Russia. Word games to avoid calling something "war"? I wonder where he got that idea... |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 8:38:43 AM EST
[Last Edit: jhereg]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By x248716x: Zelinsky has said that he's proven that there are no longer any Russian red lines, that Russia will not respond with nukes. He said so. I'm by no means a fan of Russia and I'd like to see Ukraine regain all their land, but I don't believe that. IMO if Ukraine were to directly threaten Moscow on the ground I think the nukes would come out. How far they'd have to go is the question. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 8:42:01 AM EST
[#29]
Ukraine and Russia probably have another month before things become more challenging weather wise https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/22/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kursk-incursion-pokrovsk.html
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Posted: 8/22/2024 8:47:43 AM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: I'm by no means a fan of Russia and I'd like to see Ukraine regain all their land, but I don't believe that. IMO if Ukraine were to directly threaten Moscow on the ground I think the nukes would come out. How far they'd have to go is the question. Even if they had the slightest hope of moving towards Moscow, they'd be insane to. The much more logical explanation is that they are still hoping for troops from the Donetsk offensive to be restationed and to also put Belgorod under pressure. |
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USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 8:54:46 AM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1Andy2: What does it mean if that doesn't happen? It's a serious question , but maybe I didn't word it properly. Can the ukes hold it without getting cut off ? I would think they are so far into Russia they would be in danger of getting cut off. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 8:55:31 AM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Even if they had the slightest hope of moving towards Moscow, they'd be insane to. The much more logical explanation is that they are still hoping for troops from the Donetsk offensive to be restationed and to also put Belgorod under pressure. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By jhereg: I'm by no means a fan of Russia and I'd like to see Ukraine regain all their land, but I don't believe that. IMO if Ukraine were to directly threaten Moscow on the ground I think the nukes would come out. How far they'd have to go is the question. Even if they had the slightest hope of moving towards Moscow, they'd be insane to. The much more logical explanation is that they are still hoping for troops from the Donetsk offensive to be restationed and to also put Belgorod under pressure. I agree. My point is that while I think there is a red line where Russia would use nukes I don't think they are liable to cross it. |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 9:01:41 AM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: I'm by no means a fan of Russia and I'd like to see Ukraine regain all their land, but I don't believe that. IMO if Ukraine were to directly threaten Moscow on the ground I think the nukes would come out. How far they'd have to go is the question. No need to go to Moscow. Perhaps they can gain enough Russian land that they can trade it back for the land the Russians currently occupy in their country. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 9:02:03 AM EST
[#34]
I still don’t support spending American treasure or blood for the Ukraine, but they certainly have earned the world’s respect.
It looks horrendous there and they have no quit. I’ve even slowed my shit-posting because of their performance. It’s pretty incredible. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 9:18:47 AM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: Incursion? Why not just say invasion? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Russia is not moving troops from Donetsk to repel the Ukrainian incursion. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-aerospace-forces-troops-kursk-incursion-1940995 Incursion? Why not just say invasion? It's not an invasion, it's a special military operation (SMO). |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 9:22:21 AM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: In the middle of an ongoing war that began with an invasion? That would be illogical That's like calling a counterpunch, an assault. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Subpar: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Russia is not moving troops from Donetsk to repel the Ukrainian incursion. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-aerospace-forces-troops-kursk-incursion-1940995 Incursion? Why not just say invasion? In the middle of an ongoing war that began with an invasion? That would be illogical That's like calling a counterpunch, an assault. Ha, we had someone earlier in the thread claim Ukraine was now the aggressor....these folks will go to any length to make Ukr look bad. |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 9:30:41 AM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VEPR39: So what happens to the ukes when the Russians get in behind them and cut off their logistics ? Zelensky couldn't save his own guys when they got trapped in that huge steel mill complex a couple years ago. Or in Bukmut ? Seems the ukes are way out on a limb in Russia. what superior command and control and logistics capability will Russia use to execute this maneuver ? what large, coordinated, and massively well-trained offensive force ? Russia has spent that capacity over the last 2 years. they are shuttling forces around on Chinese-made 4x4s. bombing Ukraine with North Korean made missiles. there is no impressive QRF poised to strike. they are all spread out along hundreds of KMs of front. (making progress of their own in a few places...) |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 9:42:17 AM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: I still don't support spending American treasure or blood for the Ukraine, but they certainly have earned the world's respect. It looks horrendous there and they have no quit. I've even slowed my shit-posting because of their performance. It's pretty incredible. I imagine that things are different when your own country is getting destroyed. For them, the war isn't some abstract event in a far-away continent. In the long run, Ukraine is doomed barring some miracle but there's always hope. I appreciate your comment of support and understand that we can't send them money and arms indefinitely. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 10:37:10 AM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MojaveVtwin: It would be amazing if they could somehow refuel rearm and head directly into Moscow to level red square As much as I dislike Putin and Russia as a whole that would not be a good thing. |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 10:50:26 AM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By whiskey_bravo: As much as I dislike Putin and Russia as a whole that would not be a good thing. It would not be a good thing, it would be a GREAT thing. But unfortunately, it isn't realistic. Ukraine does not have the manpower. I don't think Putin can use a nuke. It would be the most bitch-made move ever (I can line up troops outside of Kiev in an illegal attack, but if Ukraine has troops outside of Moscow, that is too much). Plus, using a nuke, even a tactical one gives the rest of the world the green light to fuck Russia however they see fit because "officially", Russia simply can't be trusted with nukes. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 10:52:14 AM EST
[Last Edit: lazyengineer]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: I imagine that things are different when your own country is getting destroyed. For them, the war isn't some abstract event in a far-away continent. In the long run, Ukraine is doomed barring some miracle but there's always hope. I appreciate your comment of support and understand that we can't send them money and arms indefinitely. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By Subpar: I still don't support spending American treasure or blood for the Ukraine, but they certainly have earned the world's respect. It looks horrendous there and they have no quit. I've even slowed my shit-posting because of their performance. It's pretty incredible. I imagine that things are different when your own country is getting destroyed. For them, the war isn't some abstract event in a far-away continent. In the long run, Ukraine is doomed barring some miracle but there's always hope. I appreciate your comment of support and understand that we can't send them money and arms indefinitely. All of that is true - and secondary. The point in sending the arms and money, is to stop a funny faced guy who keeps invading people, and make it really hurt this time. And fuck up his ability to keep doing that. Imagine if the West poured money and arms into Poland and Czechoslovakia in 1940. Fortunately, just like a preceeding funny-faced European guy, the dumbass squandered resources on Secret Super Weapons! (Like the idiotic nuclear super-torpedo and sub) and didnt spend that on actual useful shit like trucks, arty shells, etc. |
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USA
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Posted: 8/22/2024 10:59:07 AM EST
[Last Edit: Snozberry]
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: I still don’t support spending American treasure or blood for the Ukraine, but they certainly have earned the world’s respect. It looks horrendous there and they have no quit. I’ve even slowed my shit-posting because of their performance. It’s pretty incredible. I still maintain there are worse ways to spend money than by bleeding russia dry and politically destabilizing them because of their own fuck ups and belligerence. ...if you could trust the biden admin with the purse strings. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 11:00:47 AM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Pallas: Russia would nuke them. Russian nuclear plans were retaliation/counter strike -or- if the homeland was being invaded. I don’t recall if they planned on using tactical nukes if they went in to Europe, which was never really their plan. The Us had tac nukes set up to repel and invasion. At any rate, the UKR seems to have pulled off quite the operation, I hope they know when to get out. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Pallas: Originally Posted By MojaveVtwin: It would be amazing if they could somehow refuel rearm and head directly into Moscow to level red square Russia would nuke them. Russian nuclear plans were retaliation/counter strike -or- if the homeland was being invaded. I don’t recall if they planned on using tactical nukes if they went in to Europe, which was never really their plan. The Us had tac nukes set up to repel and invasion. At any rate, the UKR seems to have pulled off quite the operation, I hope they know when to get out. Russian doctrine says nukes fly if the existence of the State is threatened. Invading Russia doesn't trigger nukes, but taking over Moscow does. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 11:03:41 AM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: It’s not an invasion, that would be a war. It’s a special liberation operation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By Subpar: Incursion? Why not just say invasion? It’s not an invasion, that would be a war. It’s a special liberation operation. Legally, they can't call it an invasion, because that would trigger a bunch of Russian laws on the books: immediate martial law, conversion of the economy to 100% war footing (not sure we could tell the difference on that one), draft & mobilization, etc. So, they resort to calling for a Counter Terrorist Operation in Kursk. FSB gets to run the show, they don't have to have martial law or roll the dice on mass mobilization. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 11:37:37 AM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryFOver time, fipping a coin has better odds of being correct than Zeihan. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 11:50:23 AM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: In the middle of an ongoing war that began with an invasion? That would be illogical That’s like calling a counterpunch, an assault. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Subpar: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Russia is not moving troops from Donetsk to repel the Ukrainian incursion. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-aerospace-forces-troops-kursk-incursion-1940995 Incursion? Why not just say invasion? In the middle of an ongoing war that began with an invasion? That would be illogical That’s like calling a counterpunch, an assault. Com eon. Everyone talks about when the Allies invaded Germany in 1945. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 11:56:38 AM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: How are the Russians going to get behind them? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By VEPR39: So what happens to the ukes when the Russians get in behind them and cut off their logistics ? Zelensky couldn't save his own guys when they got trapped in that huge steel mill complex a couple years ago. Or in Bukmut ? Seems the ukes are way out on a limb in Russia. How are the Russians going to get behind them?  Attached File |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:04:03 PM EST
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Russian doctrine says nukes fly if the existence of the State is threatened. Invading Russia doesn't trigger nukes, but taking over Moscow does. Perhaps strategic ones. Tactical nukes are big bombs. |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:05:54 PM EST
[Last Edit: juan223]
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By UtahShotgunner: FOver time, fipping a coin has better odds of being correct than Zeihan. He's certainly entertaining at first but it's the same act over and over... |
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Posted: 8/22/2024 12:41:59 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SmilingBandit: Perhaps strategic ones. Tactical nukes are big bombs. |
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