User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
USA
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 4:28:23 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By atavistic: Has there ever been a war this long that nobody knows who is winning? Like for real, the propaganda from both sides in this war is so heavy that I have no idea anymore. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 5:02:10 PM EST
[#2]
Ukrainian propaganda goes down a lot smoother because it’s about 75% true. Russians are like “we killed 22,000 NATO soldiers in a bunker near the center of the earth!”
|
|
|
|
MD, USA
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 5:15:44 PM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Can Russia take Pokrovsk? Of course they can. But will the juice be worth the squeeze? Friendly reminder what this would be like if the tables were turned: 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 5:22:30 PM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mancat: Has this guy been right about...anything? It makes me not want to even watch him. He's been right about many things - just usually things that are longer-term. His short-term predictions are not much different from anyone else's. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 5:23:39 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By walkinginadangerzone: LOL Problem is he does predictions that take years to materialize so it's not like you can "fact check" him cause by that time, everyone's forgot about it or moved on to something else. He's been wrong on a few cartel takes. And if you watch his other take on the border crisis he states how the current influx of illegal immigration is a good thing and is helping fill our vacant jobs that would have been a problem and thus lowering inflation. He pretty much called the Ukraine invasion sport-on in "The Accidental Superpower". Even got the year right if I recall correctly. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 6:07:16 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Town population isn't the key variable here. Russia is going after creating gaps in the line that will allow them to break through and start segmenting and flanking the various strongholds. Those towns are the keys to that. There is no line in Kursk to break. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: You dismiss the area Ukraine has seized/threatened in Kursk as "farming towns," but that's exactly what Russia has been going after in Ukraine. There's a bunch of hubbub about Ukraine being potentially about to lose places like Niu-York, and that's a town with a population under 10k. Russia has captured something like 0.4% of Ukraine's territory so far this year, and we're going into September. The biggest hit was... Avdiivka? A city with a pre-war population of 31k? Town population isn't the key variable here. Maybe you're right, and my Western mind can't fathom why Russia would throw thousands and thousands of bodies at little Ukrainian towns while deliberately allowing Ukraine to hit their flank on a vulnerable stretch of the Russian border. But I think it's a hell of a lot more likely that Russian assessments of Ukraine's disposition and/or their own readiness were dead wrong (again). Town population isn't the key variable here. Russia is going after creating gaps in the line that will allow them to break through and start segmenting and flanking the various strongholds. Those towns are the keys to that. There is no line in Kursk to break. Why didn't that happen after Bakhmut or Avdiivka? Why would we expect that to happen after Pokrovsk? |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 7:24:29 PM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Ukrainian propaganda goes down a lot smoother because it’s about 75% true. Russians are like “we killed 22,000 NATO soldiers in a bunker near the center of the earth!” Russian propagandists claim they killed 100-300 top "Ukrainian and nato generals" from March of last year yet no proof 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 7:38:23 PM EST
[Last Edit: fadedsun]
[#8]
Originally Posted By Aaron56: Their intent is PR bullshit. That will inevitably FAIL just like all of the other times they have tried to cross border incursion BS in the past...  The only thing 'well executed' here is the UAF troops they sent into that mess. https://i.imgur.com/pF2m0Id.png What are we at now in this latest incursion? 6k+ Ukrainians that are now on their way to be pushing up daisies??? The fun fact is that you literally copy and paste images direct from Russian Gov propaganda sources. Your above photo was from here You make the wildest claims without any kind of information backing it up. The entire force liberating the ethnic Ukrainians of Kursk oblast (Now the Kursk People's republic since the referendum) is roughly 6000. Losing 6000 men in a 2 week old special offensive operation would surely mean the Russians have pushed Ukraine out of all of those areas, right? Well...about that. There is nothing beyond the word of the Russian gov (Which means absolutely jack all nowadays and never had any weight to it) to back it along with some photos of dubious value. The picture is a still from this video:  Ukrainian losses in Kursk region 100% staged. Yeah, a random pile of people is just laying around. Notice how they avoided the sky and any identifiable markers to show that this wasn't anywhere near the special offensive operation. They learned from the last time they got caught in a lie Originally Posted By Aaron56: And how many POW's?? https://i.imgur.com/miFpf6R.png https://i.imgur.com/YTuWRu0.png My goodness, 6000 dead and 6000 more POWs! Source: Dmitry Medvedev with a secondary source being Dmity's vodka bottle. None of that is believable in the slightest. What is believable is this: Ironically enough the literal "ghost brigades" captured, I mean liberated another Kursk people's republic town.  Originally Posted By Aaron56: What happens each and every time the UAF tries to hide in a woodline for more than a little while? https://i.imgur.com/ISZXG2n.png  Remember how quiet fadedsun got after the last incursion failure??? That same shit is going to happen this time with the only difference being how many UAF troops get turned into fertilizer and how much western equipment ends up on display in Russia after it was destroyed.  https://x.com/runews Your pictures were taken from a probable propaganda film that is as believable as the "Safe and effective" line I heard in years past.  Attached File Attached File Attached FileThis is a bit more believable. It's geolocated and not some downward facing video. Originally Posted By Aaron56: At the end of the day the failure here on our part is going to epic compared to the failures in Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, (could go on and on)... Funny you should mention Afghanistan. The USSR did so well there and actually collapsed and the various states held together within the USSR splintered off into freedom. The USSR and the North Koreans failed in their attempts to conquer south Korea. Originally Posted By Aaron56: We not only decided to go up against a near peer power - We decided to do so even though more than half of the population of the planet has decided against supporting our garbage. (giving the big middle finger to our 'sanctions' routine)  Half of the world's population and BRICS have enabled Russia to conquer Ukraine after nearly 1000 days, right? Originally Posted By Aaron56: Serious question here - If the USA is soooo strong all alone then why did we have to bail on Afghanistan after 20 years of trying??? A relatively tiny 3rd world crap hole and we 'really showed them' didn't we? Who exactly runs that country now??? https://i.imgur.com/bECkeYZ.jpg For sure we will win this one...  So far it doesn't look like Russia is either. 3 days to Kyiv turned into 1000 days of playing frogger with FPV drones and seeing how many villages in Siberia can be stripped of military aged men. The USSR bailed from Afghanistan after 10 years and loses the equivalent of all 10 years in Afghanistan every 2 weeks. But hey… @aaron56 |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/26/2024 7:47:15 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#9]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 12:24:01 AM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: I'm skeptical. The Russian military has repeatedly shown itself to be functionally retarded. They couldn't deploy their one aircraft carrier without it breaking down or catching fire, so it had to be constantly escorted by a tug everywhere it went. They use social media for battlefield communications. They haven't adopted palletized logistics. They are eluded by other common military technologies... like the GI sock. The list goes on. The question is "Why did Russia leave their border (and their flank) unsecured in an active war zone?" The potential answers are: A) The Russians are playing 5D chess. B) The Russians are incompetent. I'm going to have to B on this one. Option A doesn't make sense, and even if it did, Russia hasn't demonstrated they're capable of complex strategy. Yes, Russia is bigger. Yes, Russia has more resources. Yes, Russia has a 4:1+ population advantage. But these guys are morons. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: I don't see the logic that says it makes sense for Russia to burn thousands of lives and hundreds of vehicles to grind away at minuscule gains in Ukraine while leaving their own border with woefully inadequate protection. Yet here we are. They apparently don't feel the same way as you. They are not Americans, and your values don't apply. Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: The only reason this situation makes sense is if Russian MDMP was fully convinced the Ukrainians couldn't and/or wouldn't hit their border. Or that there is nothing at the border worth pulling troops from the front for. The only thing that really makes sense is Ukraine is desperate to relieve pressure on the front. They invested a divisions worth of assets on this in the hopes that Russia would commit and pull those troops. We keep hearing about all the cool shit that is supposedly going to come out of this...they are going to snatch a nuke plant, encircle the front, or March all the way to Moscow. The reality is all we've seen happen is a division sized element took a train station, some farming towns, and captured some border guards and a handful of low value troops. I fully agree NATO probably had a hand in planning this, it stinks of western perspective, which has failed miserably over the last few years. I'm skeptical. The Russian military has repeatedly shown itself to be functionally retarded. They couldn't deploy their one aircraft carrier without it breaking down or catching fire, so it had to be constantly escorted by a tug everywhere it went. They use social media for battlefield communications. They haven't adopted palletized logistics. They are eluded by other common military technologies... like the GI sock. The list goes on. The question is "Why did Russia leave their border (and their flank) unsecured in an active war zone?" The potential answers are: A) The Russians are playing 5D chess. B) The Russians are incompetent. I'm going to have to B on this one. Option A doesn't make sense, and even if it did, Russia hasn't demonstrated they're capable of complex strategy. Yes, Russia is bigger. Yes, Russia has more resources. Yes, Russia has a 4:1+ population advantage. But these guys are morons. Have the Russians ever been a Naval power? If this war proves one thing, they certainly aren't now. Have they ever employed a military force that the West would consider professional and competent? From what little I've studied, they tend to just grind down and out last their enemies. That formula worked against Napoleon, Hitler and now has Ukraine over a barrel. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:34:59 AM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Have the Russians ever been a Naval power? If this war proves one thing, they certainly aren't now. Have they ever employed a military force that the West would consider professional and competent? From what little I've studied, they tend to just grind down and out last their enemies. That formula worked against Napoleon, Hitler and now has Ukraine over a barrel. @Missilegeek They've never been a naval power. All the way back to WWII where they scrapped the building of battleships and what little they did have (surface wise) has severely been reduced. We'll never know if they've suffered any sub casualties |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 6:02:30 AM EST
[#12]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 7:55:59 AM EST
[#13]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 8:23:57 AM EST
[#14]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 8:37:15 AM EST
[#15]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 8:48:28 AM EST
[#16]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 8:57:45 AM EST
[#17]
 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 10:24:08 AM EST
[Last Edit: GenYRevolverGuy]
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Have the Russians ever been a Naval power? If this war proves one thing, they certainly aren't now. Have they ever employed a military force that the West would consider professional and competent? From what little I've studied, they tend to just grind down and out last their enemies. That formula worked against Napoleon, Hitler and now has Ukraine over a barrel. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: I don't see the logic that says it makes sense for Russia to burn thousands of lives and hundreds of vehicles to grind away at minuscule gains in Ukraine while leaving their own border with woefully inadequate protection. Yet here we are. They apparently don't feel the same way as you. They are not Americans, and your values don't apply. Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: The only reason this situation makes sense is if Russian MDMP was fully convinced the Ukrainians couldn't and/or wouldn't hit their border. Or that there is nothing at the border worth pulling troops from the front for. The only thing that really makes sense is Ukraine is desperate to relieve pressure on the front. They invested a divisions worth of assets on this in the hopes that Russia would commit and pull those troops. We keep hearing about all the cool shit that is supposedly going to come out of this...they are going to snatch a nuke plant, encircle the front, or March all the way to Moscow. The reality is all we've seen happen is a division sized element took a train station, some farming towns, and captured some border guards and a handful of low value troops. I fully agree NATO probably had a hand in planning this, it stinks of western perspective, which has failed miserably over the last few years. I'm skeptical. The Russian military has repeatedly shown itself to be functionally retarded. They couldn't deploy their one aircraft carrier without it breaking down or catching fire, so it had to be constantly escorted by a tug everywhere it went. They use social media for battlefield communications. They haven't adopted palletized logistics. They are eluded by other common military technologies... like the GI sock. The list goes on. The question is "Why did Russia leave their border (and their flank) unsecured in an active war zone?" The potential answers are: A) The Russians are playing 5D chess. B) The Russians are incompetent. I'm going to have to B on this one. Option A doesn't make sense, and even if it did, Russia hasn't demonstrated they're capable of complex strategy. Yes, Russia is bigger. Yes, Russia has more resources. Yes, Russia has a 4:1+ population advantage. But these guys are morons. Have the Russians ever been a Naval power? If this war proves one thing, they certainly aren't now. Have they ever employed a military force that the West would consider professional and competent? From what little I've studied, they tend to just grind down and out last their enemies. That formula worked against Napoleon, Hitler and now has Ukraine over a barrel. Russia's naval failures aren't from a lack of trying, and being able to sail a ship without it breaking down is a pretty low bar. lol Napoleon took his army 1,700 miles away from home with horseback logistics, half of them died due to disease, starvation, and environmental factors, and the Russians were on defense. Hitler's army was split between 2-3 fronts at any given time (Eastern front, Africa/Italy, and Western front), the Russians received massive industrial and logistical support from the United States, and they were again on defense for much of the war. Also, this happened:  They sent 11M men to their deaths while fighting this war against a smaller nation with a multi-front war. This time, Russia is on offense. Putin doesn't have Stalin's power, and Russia's population isn't facing a fight for survival. Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. The primary sources of material support Russia is receiving are North Korea and Iran. "Grind down and outlast" sounds good in theory, but it only works until it doesn't. Russia was something like 3.8x larger by population and 14x larger by GDP relative to Ukriane pre-war. That's a BIG margin in Russia's favor. But Ukraine has a considerable advantage in tactics, technology, logistics, medevac, etc. They aren't exchanging losses 1:1. With the body count climbing, and the war coming home to Russia with Ukrainians on Russian soil and Russia starting to lose major infrastructure, more people are going to be questioning if Ukraine is worth the cost. That puts Putin in a more difficult position. |
|
|
|
TX, USA
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 10:33:44 AM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By atavistic: Has there ever been a war this long that nobody knows who is winning? First and Second Punic Wars, 30 years war, Revolutionary War, Civil War, WW1, WW2, etc |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 10:42:01 AM EST
[#20]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 10:53:55 AM EST
[#21]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 11:11:08 AM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 12:30:09 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 12:46:45 PM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? He can literally quit any time he wants IMO. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 1:21:44 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Additionally, I think it's interesting that people will claim Russia's objective is NOT regime change/annexation/control of Ukraine and is some other unknown objective then also say "Russian's won't tolerate failure". If you can't define success, you can't define failure either. Point being is that all Putin has to do is announce "mission accomplished: we killed all the nazis, we disarmed Ukraine, Zelensky has promised to stop being mean to us, Russia stronk" and enough people will believe him that the truth won't matter. He can literally quit any time he wants IMO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? He can literally quit any time he wants IMO. Exactly. And anyone who contradicts this conclusion to the SMO is subject to 10 years hard labor. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 1:24:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: Missilegeek]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Additionally, I think it's interesting that people will claim Russia's objective is NOT regime change/annexation/control of Ukraine and is some other unknown objective then also say "Russian's won't tolerate failure". If you can't define success, you can't define failure either. Point being is that all Putin has to do is announce "mission accomplished: we killed all the nazis, we disarmed Ukraine, Zelensky has promised to stop being mean to us, Russia stronk" and enough people will believe him that the truth won't matter. He can literally quit any time he wants IMO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? He can literally quit any time he wants IMO. Maybe. It's a lot easier for him to quit when he has something to justify the whole thing. Because as you stated, it was obvious to everyone that the goal was complete annexation. Additional partial annexation is a lot easier to swallow than getting nothing, or even worse, elimination or reduction of previous annexation. That's why Zelensky was a fool drunk on his own success when he announced his goal as complete liberation to include all of Donbas and Crimea. Putin may not survive that humiliation, and it turns out that even with Western help, it seems Ukraine is incapable of booting them out completely. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 1:25:04 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Bingo. Going into WWII, Stalin had absolute power, the Russian public had little knowledge about life elsewhere in the world, and the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg brought a world of hell into their nation. In the current situation, none of those things are true. We shouldn't expect the same output if all of the inputs are different. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 1:32:27 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Bingo. Going into WWII, Stalin had absolute power, the Russian public had little knowledge about life elsewhere in the world, and the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg brought a world of hell into their nation. In the current situation, none of those things are true. We shouldn't expect the same output if all of the inputs are different. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Bingo. Going into WWII, Stalin had absolute power, the Russian public had little knowledge about life elsewhere in the world, and the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg brought a world of hell into their nation. In the current situation, none of those things are true. We shouldn't expect the same output if all of the inputs are different. Putin doesn't have absolute power? The Russian people don't believe the constant propaganda that NATO and Ukraine were and are an existential threat? I'm not so sure. These are the same people that not only willingly went to the gulags with no fight, they reported on their neighbors. Who exactly is running this growing political resistance inside Russia? Who are the members? When and how do they get rid of Putin? I've heard nothing of these people that everyone is sure exist somewhere and will materialize out of nowhere and will somehow miraculously solve this problem for us. There are limits to what Putin can do is a solid theory, but I haven't seen any evidence of those people. The previous examples seem to have all moved, thrown themselves out of windows, or be in prison. Kinda like Stalin's opposition. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:17:47 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Putin doesn't have absolute power? The Russian people don't believe the constant propaganda that NATO and Ukraine were and are an existential threat? I'm not so sure. These are the same people that not only willingly went to the gulags with no fight, they reported on their neighbors. Who exactly is running this growing political resistance inside Russia? Who are the members? When and how do they get rid of Putin? I've heard nothing of these people that everyone is sure exist somewhere and will materialize out of nowhere and will somehow miraculously solve this problem for us. There are limits to what Putin can do is a solid theory, but I haven't seen any evidence of those people. The previous examples seem to have all moved, thrown themselves out of windows, or be in prison. Kinda like Stalin's opposition. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Bingo. Going into WWII, Stalin had absolute power, the Russian public had little knowledge about life elsewhere in the world, and the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg brought a world of hell into their nation. In the current situation, none of those things are true. We shouldn't expect the same output if all of the inputs are different. Putin doesn't have absolute power? The Russian people don't believe the constant propaganda that NATO and Ukraine were and are an existential threat? I'm not so sure. These are the same people that not only willingly went to the gulags with no fight, they reported on their neighbors. Who exactly is running this growing political resistance inside Russia? Who are the members? When and how do they get rid of Putin? I've heard nothing of these people that everyone is sure exist somewhere and will materialize out of nowhere and will somehow miraculously solve this problem for us. There are limits to what Putin can do is a solid theory, but I haven't seen any evidence of those people. The previous examples seem to have all moved, thrown themselves out of windows, or be in prison. Kinda like Stalin's opposition. Quite a lot do not believe that NATO and Ukraine were a threat. You're also simultaneously arguing that Putin has absolute power over his people, unless he fails in Ukraine in which case they'll depose him. Remember, when conscription happened hundreds of thousands of Russian men left the country. This is not a popular war. I'm not really arguing that Russians will rise up, in fact I agree with you that it's extremely unlikely. I AM arguing however that they will not rise up in favor of more war if Putin throws in the towel today. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:31:16 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Additionally, I think it's interesting that people will claim Russia's objective is NOT regime change/annexation/control of Ukraine and is some other unknown objective then also say "Russian's won't tolerate failure". If you can't define success, you can't define failure either. Point being is that all Putin has to do is announce "mission accomplished: we killed all the nazis, we disarmed Ukraine, Zelensky has promised to stop being mean to us, Russia stronk" and enough people will believe him that the truth won't matter. He can literally quit any time he wants IMO. Back on June 14, Putin himself announced that peace is possible once Ukrainian troops are out of Kherson, Zapo, DPR, LPR regions. Until the Kursk offensive, Putin was willing to end the conflict without full annexation or regime change. Even in 2022 they were willing to sign an agreement with Zelensky. Now with the Kursk offensive, they have started saying there is no longer any possibility for negotiations. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:34:10 PM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Back on June 14, Putin himself announced that peace is possible once Ukrainian troops are out of Kherson, Zapo, DPR, LPR regions. Until the Kursk offensive, Putin was willing to end the conflict without full annexation or regime change. Even in 2022 they were willing to sign an agreement with Zelensky. Now with the Kursk offensive, they have started saying there is no longer any possibility for negotiations. In 2022 they were insisting that Ukraine disarm and remain neutral. It was an absurd proposal and refusing to talk now wouldn't help Russia in world opinion. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:36:41 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SmilingBandit: In 2022 they were insisting that Ukraine disarm and remain neutral. It was an absurd proposal and refusing to talk now wouldn't help Russia in world opinion. I just checked and it was the Russian foriengn ministry themselves that announced negotiations are no longer possible due to kursk. Yeah not sure that was a helpful statement on their end. But it does seem like this has caused them to commit to full annihilation of the government in kiev, at least that's the rhetoric right now |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:37:32 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By KZ45: Saw American soldiers holding up US flag on Russian ground. God bless them  Technically not American soldiers, but I get your point. Americans fighting in the Ukrainian Army are Ukrainian soldiers. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:38:59 PM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: I just checked and it was the Russian foriengn ministry themselves that announced negotiations are no longer possible due to kursk. Yeah not sure that was a helpful statement on their end. But it does seem like this has caused them to commit to full annihilation of the government in kiev, at least that's the rhetoric right now Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: In 2022 they were insisting that Ukraine disarm and remain neutral. It was an absurd proposal and refusing to talk now wouldn't help Russia in world opinion. I just checked and it was the Russian foriengn ministry themselves that announced negotiations are no longer possible due to kursk. Yeah not sure that was a helpful statement on their end. But it does seem like this has caused them to commit to full annihilation of the government in kiev, at least that's the rhetoric right now Unlike when they tried a thunder run to Kyiv. That was to drop off some undelivered mail they found. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:43:01 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Back on June 14, Putin himself announced that peace is possible once Ukrainian troops are out of Kherson, Zapo, DPR, LPR regions. Until the Kursk offensive, Putin was willing to end the conflict without full annexation or regime change. Even in 2022 they were willing to sign an agreement with Zelensky. Now with the Kursk offensive, they have started saying there is no longer any possibility for negotiations. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Additionally, I think it's interesting that people will claim Russia's objective is NOT regime change/annexation/control of Ukraine and is some other unknown objective then also say "Russian's won't tolerate failure". If you can't define success, you can't define failure either. Point being is that all Putin has to do is announce "mission accomplished: we killed all the nazis, we disarmed Ukraine, Zelensky has promised to stop being mean to us, Russia stronk" and enough people will believe him that the truth won't matter. He can literally quit any time he wants IMO. Back on June 14, Putin himself announced that peace is possible once Ukrainian troops are out of Kherson, Zapo, DPR, LPR regions. Until the Kursk offensive, Putin was willing to end the conflict without full annexation or regime change. Even in 2022 they were willing to sign an agreement with Zelensky. Now with the Kursk offensive, they have started saying there is no longer any possibility for negotiations. Lol. They've also insisted on complete disarmament. They're using Kursk as a "look how bad the warmongering Ukrainians are for fighting back!" it's not fooling anyone. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:43:23 PM EST
[Last Edit: 56xdx_Z]
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SmilingBandit: Unlike when they tried a thunder run to Kyiv. That was to drop off some undelivered mail they found. Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:44:14 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: I just checked and it was the Russian foriengn ministry themselves that announced negotiations are no longer possible due to kursk. Yeah not sure that was a helpful statement on their end. But it does seem like this has caused them to commit to full annihilation of the government in kiev, at least that's the rhetoric right now Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: In 2022 they were insisting that Ukraine disarm and remain neutral. It was an absurd proposal and refusing to talk now wouldn't help Russia in world opinion. I just checked and it was the Russian foriengn ministry themselves that announced negotiations are no longer possible due to kursk. Yeah not sure that was a helpful statement on their end. But it does seem like this has caused them to commit to full annihilation of the government in kiev, at least that's the rhetoric right now That's always been the goal. |
|
|
|
TX, USA
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:48:47 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Back on June 14, Putin himself announced that peace is possible once Ukrainian troops are out of Kherson, Zapo, DPR, LPR regions. Until the Kursk offensive, Putin was willing to end the conflict without full annexation or regime change. Even in 2022 they were willing to sign an agreement with Zelensky. Now with the Kursk offensive, they have started saying there is no longer any possibility for negotiations. If Ukraine loses those lands Russia is in an excellent position to reinvade in 5 years and not screw up the initial stages The goal always has been annexation. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:50:04 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Unlike when they tried a thunder run to Kyiv. That was to drop off some undelivered mail they found. Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now They are only as locked in as they choose to be. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:51:55 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Unlike when they tried a thunder run to Kyiv. That was to drop off some undelivered mail they found. Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now Oh my, you are gullible.... Or think we are. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 2:51:55 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Unlike when they tried a thunder run to Kyiv. That was to drop off some undelivered mail they found. Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now Don't insult our intelligence. Are you really trying to argue that Putin demanding Ukraine remove THEIR troops from sovereign Ukrainian territory is a real request for peace? When Putin has ALREADY broken multiple other agreements- Minsk, Kharkiv, Budapest- you expect anyone to take his peace treaties seriously? Ukraine knows as well as we all do (even you, though you won't admit it) that there's no negotiating with Russia, all you can do is be prepared for the next time they break an agreement. Ukraine would be retarded to agree to Putin's demands to give up land they currently hold and/or to disarm. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 3:00:15 PM EST
[Last Edit: 56xdx_Z]
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Don't insult our intelligence. Are you really trying to argue that Putin demanding Ukraine remove THEIR troops from sovereign Ukrainian territory is a real request for peace? When Putin has ALREADY broken multiple other agreements- Minsk, Kharkiv, Budapest- you expect anyone to take his peace treaties seriously? Ukraine knows as well as we all do (even you, though you won't admit it) that there's no negotiating with Russia, all you can do is be prepared for the next time they break an agreement. Ukraine would be retarded to agree to Putin's demands to give up land they currently hold and/or to disarm. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Unlike when they tried a thunder run to Kyiv. That was to drop off some undelivered mail they found. Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now Don't insult our intelligence. Are you really trying to argue that Putin demanding Ukraine remove THEIR troops from sovereign Ukrainian territory is a real request for peace? When Putin has ALREADY broken multiple other agreements- Minsk, Kharkiv, Budapest- you expect anyone to take his peace treaties seriously? Ukraine knows as well as we all do (even you, though you won't admit it) that there's no negotiating with Russia, all you can do is be prepared for the next time they break an agreement. Ukraine would be retarded to agree to Putin's demands to give up land they currently hold and/or to disarm. Now you got worked up and want to change the topic to whether those were good/trustworthy proposals or not. The point is again that due to the Kursk incursion, the narrative from the Russian government itself is that negotiations are no longer possible. Trump wanted to negotiate with Russia to end the conflict, which is one reason I suspect you like to trash trump threads. Now thanks to this event, Russia has stated they won't even consider it. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 3:07:49 PM EST
[Last Edit: RolandofGilead]
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Now you got worked up and want to change the topic to whether those were good/trustworthy proposals or not. The point is again that due to the Kursk incursion, the narrative from the Russian government itself is that negotiations are no longer possible. Trump wanted to negotiate with Russia to end the conflict, which is one reason I suspect you like to trash trump threads. Now thanks to this event, Russia has stated they won't even consider it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Unlike when they tried a thunder run to Kyiv. That was to drop off some undelivered mail they found. Point is that even during that whole event, they were willing to end the conflict by signing an agreement with Zelensky still in power. Now their foreign ministry is saying that is impossible due to Kursk. So it seems like Putin is even more locked in and can't just back out now Don't insult our intelligence. Are you really trying to argue that Putin demanding Ukraine remove THEIR troops from sovereign Ukrainian territory is a real request for peace? When Putin has ALREADY broken multiple other agreements- Minsk, Kharkiv, Budapest- you expect anyone to take his peace treaties seriously? Ukraine knows as well as we all do (even you, though you won't admit it) that there's no negotiating with Russia, all you can do is be prepared for the next time they break an agreement. Ukraine would be retarded to agree to Putin's demands to give up land they currently hold and/or to disarm. Now you got worked up and want to change the topic to whether those were good/trustworthy proposals or not. The point is again that due to the Kursk incursion, the narrative from the Russian government itself is that negotiations are no longer possible. Trump wanted to negotiate with Russia to end the conflict, which is one reason I suspect you like to trash trump threads. Now thanks to this event, Russia has stated they won't even consider it. I'm not worked up, but I am tired of your bullshit. Pointing out that those proposals were not made in good faith is 100% on topic. You are right that is the Russian government narrative, that's a pretty irrelevant point though since the proposal wasn't made in good faith. Add it to the pile along with bio-engineered nazi super soldiers and NATO expansion. You're new here. If you weren't you'd probably know that I've been talking about Trump being an anti-gun liberal since 2015, well before the current Russian invasion. So yet another swing and another miss. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 4:42:59 PM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Quite a lot do not believe that NATO and Ukraine were a threat. You're also simultaneously arguing that Putin has absolute power over his people, unless he fails in Ukraine in which case they'll depose him. Remember, when conscription happened hundreds of thousands of Russian men left the country. This is not a popular war. I'm not really arguing that Russians will rise up, in fact I agree with you that it's extremely unlikely. I AM arguing however that they will not rise up in favor of more war if Putin throws in the towel today. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Bingo. Going into WWII, Stalin had absolute power, the Russian public had little knowledge about life elsewhere in the world, and the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg brought a world of hell into their nation. In the current situation, none of those things are true. We shouldn't expect the same output if all of the inputs are different. Putin doesn't have absolute power? The Russian people don't believe the constant propaganda that NATO and Ukraine were and are an existential threat? I'm not so sure. These are the same people that not only willingly went to the gulags with no fight, they reported on their neighbors. Who exactly is running this growing political resistance inside Russia? Who are the members? When and how do they get rid of Putin? I've heard nothing of these people that everyone is sure exist somewhere and will materialize out of nowhere and will somehow miraculously solve this problem for us. There are limits to what Putin can do is a solid theory, but I haven't seen any evidence of those people. The previous examples seem to have all moved, thrown themselves out of windows, or be in prison. Kinda like Stalin's opposition. Quite a lot do not believe that NATO and Ukraine were a threat. You're also simultaneously arguing that Putin has absolute power over his people, unless he fails in Ukraine in which case they'll depose him. Remember, when conscription happened hundreds of thousands of Russian men left the country. This is not a popular war. I'm not really arguing that Russians will rise up, in fact I agree with you that it's extremely unlikely. I AM arguing however that they will not rise up in favor of more war if Putin throws in the towel today. The thing about being a strongman dictator type, is that looking weak is not on the menu of options. I don't know if they would depose him for a massive failure in Ukraine, but it would certainly tarnish his desired image to the external audience. We should have known that's how that works before Saddam bluffed us, but if we didn't, we certainly should know it now. Putin rose to power by making his political opponents look weak. He has not forgotten that formula. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 4:51:05 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: The thing about being a strongman dictator type, is that looking weak is not on the menu of options. I don't know if they would depose him for a massive failure in Ukraine, but it would certainly tarnish his desired image to the external audience. We should have known that's how that works before Saddam bluffed us, but if we didn't, we certainly should know it now. Putin rose to power by making his political opponents look weak. He has not forgotten that formula. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Bingo. Going into WWII, Stalin had absolute power, the Russian public had little knowledge about life elsewhere in the world, and the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg brought a world of hell into their nation. In the current situation, none of those things are true. We shouldn't expect the same output if all of the inputs are different. Putin doesn't have absolute power? The Russian people don't believe the constant propaganda that NATO and Ukraine were and are an existential threat? I'm not so sure. These are the same people that not only willingly went to the gulags with no fight, they reported on their neighbors. Who exactly is running this growing political resistance inside Russia? Who are the members? When and how do they get rid of Putin? I've heard nothing of these people that everyone is sure exist somewhere and will materialize out of nowhere and will somehow miraculously solve this problem for us. There are limits to what Putin can do is a solid theory, but I haven't seen any evidence of those people. The previous examples seem to have all moved, thrown themselves out of windows, or be in prison. Kinda like Stalin's opposition. Quite a lot do not believe that NATO and Ukraine were a threat. You're also simultaneously arguing that Putin has absolute power over his people, unless he fails in Ukraine in which case they'll depose him. Remember, when conscription happened hundreds of thousands of Russian men left the country. This is not a popular war. I'm not really arguing that Russians will rise up, in fact I agree with you that it's extremely unlikely. I AM arguing however that they will not rise up in favor of more war if Putin throws in the towel today. The thing about being a strongman dictator type, is that looking weak is not on the menu of options. I don't know if they would depose him for a massive failure in Ukraine, but it would certainly tarnish his desired image to the external audience. We should have known that's how that works before Saddam bluffed us, but if we didn't, we certainly should know it now. Putin rose to power by making his political opponents look weak. He has not forgotten that formula. He certainly doesn't look strong right now. He looks like a fuckin buffoon to an external audience already. There's no way.. NO WAY...his own people are going to rise up because they want MORE of their men sent to be fertilizer in Ukraine. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 5:03:19 PM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: The fun fact is that you literally copy and paste images direct from Russian Gov propaganda sources. Your above photo was from here You make the wildest claims without any kind of information backing it up. The entire force liberating the ethnic Ukrainians of Kursk oblast (Now the Kursk People's republic since the referendum) is roughly 6000. Losing 6000 men in a 2 week old special offensive operation would surely mean the Russians have pushed Ukraine out of all of those areas, right? Well...about that. There is nothing beyond the word of the Russian gov (Which means absolutely jack all nowadays and never had any weight to it) to back it along with some photos of dubious value. The picture is a still from this video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ErB85q64Q4100% staged. Yeah, a random pile of people is just laying around. Notice how they avoided the sky and any identifiable markers to show that this wasn't anywhere near the special offensive operation. They learned from the last time they got caught in a lie My goodness, 6000 dead and 6000 more POWs! Source: Dmitry Medvedev with a secondary source being Dmity's vodka bottle. None of that is believable in the slightest. What is believable is this: Ironically enough the literal "ghost brigades" captured, I mean liberated another Kursk people's republic town. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GV7nSdTW8AA-rao?format=jpg&name=medium https://x.com/runews Your pictures were taken from a probable propaganda film that is as believable as the "Safe and effective" line I heard in years past. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/51435/IMG_1827_jpeg-3288339.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/51435/IMG_1829_jpeg-3288337.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/51435/IMG_1828_jpeg-3288338.JPG This is a bit more believable. It's geolocated and not some downward facing video. Funny you should mention Afghanistan. The USSR did so well there and actually collapsed and the various states held together within the USSR splintered off into freedom. The USSR and the North Koreans failed in their attempts to conquer south Korea. Half of the world's population and BRICS have enabled Russia to conquer Ukraine after nearly 1000 days, right? So far it doesn't look like Russia is either. 3 days to Kyiv turned into 1000 days of playing frogger with FPV drones and seeing how many villages in Siberia can be stripped of military aged men. The USSR bailed from Afghanistan after 10 years and loses the equivalent of all 10 years in Afghanistan every 2 weeks. But hey… @aaron56 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By Aaron56: Their intent is PR bullshit. That will inevitably FAIL just like all of the other times they have tried to cross border incursion BS in the past... The only thing 'well executed' here is the UAF troops they sent into that mess. https://i.imgur.com/pF2m0Id.png What are we at now in this latest incursion? 6k+ Ukrainians that are now on their way to be pushing up daisies??? The fun fact is that you literally copy and paste images direct from Russian Gov propaganda sources. Your above photo was from here You make the wildest claims without any kind of information backing it up. The entire force liberating the ethnic Ukrainians of Kursk oblast (Now the Kursk People's republic since the referendum) is roughly 6000. Losing 6000 men in a 2 week old special offensive operation would surely mean the Russians have pushed Ukraine out of all of those areas, right? Well...about that. There is nothing beyond the word of the Russian gov (Which means absolutely jack all nowadays and never had any weight to it) to back it along with some photos of dubious value. The picture is a still from this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ErB85q64Q4100% staged. Yeah, a random pile of people is just laying around. Notice how they avoided the sky and any identifiable markers to show that this wasn't anywhere near the special offensive operation. They learned from the last time they got caught in a lie Originally Posted By Aaron56: And how many POW's?? https://i.imgur.com/miFpf6R.png https://i.imgur.com/YTuWRu0.png My goodness, 6000 dead and 6000 more POWs! Source: Dmitry Medvedev with a secondary source being Dmity's vodka bottle. None of that is believable in the slightest. What is believable is this: Ironically enough the literal "ghost brigades" captured, I mean liberated another Kursk people's republic town. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GV7nSdTW8AA-rao?format=jpg&name=medium Originally Posted By Aaron56: What happens each and every time the UAF tries to hide in a woodline for more than a little while? https://i.imgur.com/ISZXG2n.png Remember how quiet fadedsun got after the last incursion failure??? That same shit is going to happen this time with the only difference being how many UAF troops get turned into fertilizer and how much western equipment ends up on display in Russia after it was destroyed. https://x.com/runews Your pictures were taken from a probable propaganda film that is as believable as the "Safe and effective" line I heard in years past. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/51435/IMG_1827_jpeg-3288339.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/51435/IMG_1829_jpeg-3288337.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/51435/IMG_1828_jpeg-3288338.JPG This is a bit more believable. It's geolocated and not some downward facing video. Originally Posted By Aaron56: At the end of the day the failure here on our part is going to epic compared to the failures in Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, (could go on and on)... Funny you should mention Afghanistan. The USSR did so well there and actually collapsed and the various states held together within the USSR splintered off into freedom. The USSR and the North Koreans failed in their attempts to conquer south Korea. Originally Posted By Aaron56: We not only decided to go up against a near peer power - We decided to do so even though more than half of the population of the planet has decided against supporting our garbage. (giving the big middle finger to our 'sanctions' routine) Half of the world's population and BRICS have enabled Russia to conquer Ukraine after nearly 1000 days, right? Originally Posted By Aaron56: Serious question here - If the USA is soooo strong all alone then why did we have to bail on Afghanistan after 20 years of trying??? A relatively tiny 3rd world crap hole and we 'really showed them' didn't we? Who exactly runs that country now??? https://i.imgur.com/bECkeYZ.jpg For sure we will win this one... So far it doesn't look like Russia is either. 3 days to Kyiv turned into 1000 days of playing frogger with FPV drones and seeing how many villages in Siberia can be stripped of military aged men. The USSR bailed from Afghanistan after 10 years and loses the equivalent of all 10 years in Afghanistan every 2 weeks. But hey… @aaron56 Comrade Aaron hasn’t posted in over 48 hours. Maybe he lost his cozy office cubical job and got sent to the front? |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 5:13:13 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: He certainly doesn't look strong right now. He looks like a fuckin buffoon to an external audience already. There's no way.. NO WAY...his own people are going to rise up because they want MORE of their men sent to be fertilizer in Ukraine. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Bingo. Going into WWII, Stalin had absolute power, the Russian public had little knowledge about life elsewhere in the world, and the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg brought a world of hell into their nation. In the current situation, none of those things are true. We shouldn't expect the same output if all of the inputs are different. Putin doesn't have absolute power? The Russian people don't believe the constant propaganda that NATO and Ukraine were and are an existential threat? I'm not so sure. These are the same people that not only willingly went to the gulags with no fight, they reported on their neighbors. Who exactly is running this growing political resistance inside Russia? Who are the members? When and how do they get rid of Putin? I've heard nothing of these people that everyone is sure exist somewhere and will materialize out of nowhere and will somehow miraculously solve this problem for us. There are limits to what Putin can do is a solid theory, but I haven't seen any evidence of those people. The previous examples seem to have all moved, thrown themselves out of windows, or be in prison. Kinda like Stalin's opposition. Quite a lot do not believe that NATO and Ukraine were a threat. You're also simultaneously arguing that Putin has absolute power over his people, unless he fails in Ukraine in which case they'll depose him. Remember, when conscription happened hundreds of thousands of Russian men left the country. This is not a popular war. I'm not really arguing that Russians will rise up, in fact I agree with you that it's extremely unlikely. I AM arguing however that they will not rise up in favor of more war if Putin throws in the towel today. The thing about being a strongman dictator type, is that looking weak is not on the menu of options. I don't know if they would depose him for a massive failure in Ukraine, but it would certainly tarnish his desired image to the external audience. We should have known that's how that works before Saddam bluffed us, but if we didn't, we certainly should know it now. Putin rose to power by making his political opponents look weak. He has not forgotten that formula. He certainly doesn't look strong right now. He looks like a fuckin buffoon to an external audience already. There's no way.. NO WAY...his own people are going to rise up because they want MORE of their men sent to be fertilizer in Ukraine. He looked like a buffoon in 2022 and early 2023. Maybe even a weak buffoon. Now he looks like a very dedicated and sadistic evil villain, who is willing to do things that most will not. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 5:16:12 PM EST
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: He looked like a buffoon in 2022 and early 2023. Maybe even a weak buffoon. Now he looks like a very dedicated and sadistic evil villain, who is willing to do things that most will not. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Consensus is there's a limit on how many people Putin can mobilize without getting removed. I think I've identified the critical assumption that continues to show no signs of being true. It seems fairly obvious to me that Putin fears being removed for failure in Ukraine a lot more than the rising cost. We think they get viewed as the same thing at some point, but as your post elaborated on, the Russians have quite a history of suffering for war. No one knows what that threshold is. Yes, but what's their history of suffering for "special military operations"? Bingo. Going into WWII, Stalin had absolute power, the Russian public had little knowledge about life elsewhere in the world, and the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg brought a world of hell into their nation. In the current situation, none of those things are true. We shouldn't expect the same output if all of the inputs are different. Putin doesn't have absolute power? The Russian people don't believe the constant propaganda that NATO and Ukraine were and are an existential threat? I'm not so sure. These are the same people that not only willingly went to the gulags with no fight, they reported on their neighbors. Who exactly is running this growing political resistance inside Russia? Who are the members? When and how do they get rid of Putin? I've heard nothing of these people that everyone is sure exist somewhere and will materialize out of nowhere and will somehow miraculously solve this problem for us. There are limits to what Putin can do is a solid theory, but I haven't seen any evidence of those people. The previous examples seem to have all moved, thrown themselves out of windows, or be in prison. Kinda like Stalin's opposition. Quite a lot do not believe that NATO and Ukraine were a threat. You're also simultaneously arguing that Putin has absolute power over his people, unless he fails in Ukraine in which case they'll depose him. Remember, when conscription happened hundreds of thousands of Russian men left the country. This is not a popular war. I'm not really arguing that Russians will rise up, in fact I agree with you that it's extremely unlikely. I AM arguing however that they will not rise up in favor of more war if Putin throws in the towel today. The thing about being a strongman dictator type, is that looking weak is not on the menu of options. I don't know if they would depose him for a massive failure in Ukraine, but it would certainly tarnish his desired image to the external audience. We should have known that's how that works before Saddam bluffed us, but if we didn't, we certainly should know it now. Putin rose to power by making his political opponents look weak. He has not forgotten that formula. He certainly doesn't look strong right now. He looks like a fuckin buffoon to an external audience already. There's no way.. NO WAY...his own people are going to rise up because they want MORE of their men sent to be fertilizer in Ukraine. He looked like a buffoon in 2022 and early 2023. Maybe even a weak buffoon. Now he looks like a very dedicated and sadistic evil villain, who is willing to do things that most will not. Well, he pretty much looks like ALL those things. Regardless, the point stands that all he has to do is have his state run media say "mission accomplished" and he can stop. Russians are good at pretending to believe in obvious fictions in order to get by. |
|
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 5:50:31 PM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PolarBear416: Hmmmmmmmm Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PolarBear416: Originally Posted By Aaron56: For sure we will win this one... You don't think Mississippi is going to win this?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/27/2024 10:04:31 PM EST
[#50]
|
|
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
