US commanders, especially "top commanders" are politicians. And the current mal-administration seems more corrupt and dishonest than previous ones and that's saying a lot. These are the same idiots that orchestrated and executed the Afghan withdrawal fiasco and told us it was a success. I trust nothing they say especially sweeping generalizations like this.

The Russians have lost over 500K casualties (KIA and WIA). Lost the better part of their modern pre-invasion armor and 50% of their old (but in the best shape) Soviet stocks are gone. They are using more and more 60 year old tanks like the T62 along with Chinese golf carts and motorcycles. 80% of their pre-invasion professional cadre have been replaced by 50 yo conscripts with 3 weeks of training. They have had to use high skilled specialists like missile techs to fill infantry slots. They have lost critical radars and ADA systems including several hard to replace AWACs planes. 30% of their Black Sea Fleet is destroyed with much of the rest fleeing to safer harbors. Their foreign military sales have dropped dramatically. No one wants to buy their garbage. Most importantly they have exposed themselves as to the world and especially to their own populations as being incompetent boastful liars who compensate through brutality and savagery.

I'm trying hard to think of a metric the Russians have gotten stronger. They started using their glide bombs (FABs) very effectively but this may be mostly due to a lack of UA air defense and idiotic and defeatist ROE that prevents them from attacking the airfields. They have started to produce domestic versions of the Iranian Shaheeds and the 3-5% that get through are causing lots of damage. I think the only metric Russia has gotten stronger is their amazing ability to force their people into costly and suicidal infantry attacks. No other society on earth (well maybe Norks and China) could do it better. If the US suffered 10% of the Russian losses we would have impeached the POTUS or had a civil war by now.

In the end I believe that US top commander is saying that Ukraine is losing ground not because the limited aid sent to Ukraine combined with idiotic defeatist ROE imposed by the US that protects Russia but because Russia has "gotten stronger".

Yeah pretty much. Depending on which "news" article pops up first.

Russia has always been a threat. They took a break from around 1991 to around 1999 (or maybe 2008) but they have big mouths and big ambitions. They attacked a much smaller and weaker neighbor and beclowned themselves. More enraged than ever they are coming back again and again, more brutal and desperate. And THIS is their strength or "super power". Like a crazy homeless guy or a 5'2" bully: They dont know when to quit. So to the weak and corrupt liars that need to explain all the bedwetting "they have gotten stronger".

Fair assessment.

Do you have any thoughts as to why they default to apathy?  I agree that's what they did and it appears to be a pattern.

1989-1994 would be the only window of time I'd argue Russia has not been antagonistic and offensive to the civilized world just out of some sense of obligation to history.

Yeah, it also doesn’t help that this is an era of history defined by apathy.

I mean, what is anyone in most of the world working towards today besides their own survival and comfort? There are no great heroes or villains in this era. Just various power mad jerks squabbling over money.

Maybe a longer range missile for their F-16s? https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-f16s-less-effective-russia-defenses-missiles-cant-strike-experts-2024-9

Last year the Navy was removing cluster TLAMs apparently without rebuilding them. Would have been perfect for smashing aircraft.

I’m not an economist or even knowledgeable about Germany but isn’t their economy having troubles? https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-economy-could-shrink-again-q3-bundesbank-warns-2024-09-19/

The MIC is not in fact a get rich quick scheme.

Meant to post an article about Ukraine’s 2nd strike earlier in case anyone following thread hadnt heard. Forgot

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/21/ukrainian-drones-just-blew-up-2000-tons-of-ammo-in-southern-russia/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-end-war-with-russia-depends-allies-resolve-2024-09-21/

https://www.voanews.com/amp/zelenskyy-plans-to-press-case-to-use-long-range-missiles-on-targets-in-russia/7793716.html

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2024

https://www.afr.com/world/europe/zelensky-to-push-biden-for-advanced-weapons-to-end-war-20240922-p5kcju

He's already setting up a direction to point to assign blame.  He knows neither is happening anytime soon.

Article just posted 5 minutes ago it’s a BIG ask as these run a million $ each I believe

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-push-biden-to-bolster-ukraines-firepower-as-allies-await-us-leadership/



Previous news indicated if this moved forward it would take several months from September 3 to be ready which exceeds Zelensky’s timeline, so my impression is Zelensky hopes to pressure Biden to speed that up and cut the timeline in half to match Zelensky’s victory plan

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-close-agreeing-long-range-missiles-ukraine-delivery-take-months-2024-09-03/

Does seem like a swing for the fences, all or nothing approach. Hungary and Slovakia will never approve NATO membership even if Germany amd the USA changed their minds.

He's not even allowed to apply until the war is over.

I might not understand the victory and peace plan being proposed by Zelensky and details haven’t been released but it sounds like it’s not a peace plan in the traditional sense which if that is the case, returns us to your point.

Guess I’ll wait for the full detailed layout instead of the drip drip I’m seeing in Ukrainian news so far before making any judgements

It's been noted many times: Ukraine has no chance without major western aid. True two years ago, true today. And the farther it gets, the more Russia advances, the more aid is required.

He's not asking for tanks and artillery anymore, he's gone straight to demands he knows cannot and will not be met.

If we were concerned about ATACM deep strikes, there's no way in hell they are getting cruise missiles. He knows that.

Just like he knows the NATO thing is not on the table either.

Stoltenberg seemed to indicate that there was a path to Ukraine joining NATO in his recent speech prior to the war's "end". He's on his way to retirement so we'll have to wait and see if the new guy has similar thoughts.

He's asking for what they think they need to win. He's right to ask, and he's right to frame it as 'what they need to win.' The likelihood that they won't get it roughly equals the likelihood they won't win.

IMO, It's not the worst way for him to start getting his people used to the idea that they're going to have to fight for the best possible loss, rather than a win. Blaming western partners also isn't totally out of line. There was a point when large amounts of western aid could have enabled a solid Russian defeat. We didn't want to send it. This is the result.

He needs to hope that China will be a decent peace broker.

His "plan to win" assumes that winning is to sue for peace. That's been contrary to their stance the entire time. JASSMs aren't pushing the Russians out of Ukraine especially in the quantities we would give them in the extremely unlikely event that we even did so in the first place. No singular weapons system is.

I guess I'm at a loss for all the blame here, as nobody really had to give them anything at all. Instead they got years and billions worth of high value equipment. To claim "it's your fault, you should have sent more" at this point seems a bit ridiculous. Could we? Yes.  Should we? Up for debate, but that debate also includes questioning whether we should have sent what they actually received as well.

Stretching legal definitions to try and attain NATO entry is a bit much, especially when it has to run the gauntlet of multi-state approvals.  I have a personal theory that the red lines we are worried about crossing are not concerned with Russia but China. If western long range weapons into Russia falls into that category, allowing Ukraine into NATO with this conflict running would definitely as well.  The Chinese aren't shy about publicizing exactly what their supporting role will become if we breach those lines with them.

Fuck europe, they are the ones who should be ashamed simply because someone else [like always] carried the lions share of military goods, support, and money.

This was europes war, and they failed and the US has no blame in it, all we did was give them our children's children's children's money and war supplies we might need ourselves while letting millions of invaders into our own country.

From Zelensky’s interview with the New Yorker today
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/volodymyr-zelensky-has-a-plan-for-ukraines-victory

I'm a lot less worried about Russia once I figured out that they had an economy smaller than Italy's and that they have one aircraft carrier that has to be escorted by a tugboat everywhere it goes because it breaks down so often it needs to be towed back to port. And conscripts are pretty weak troops. When a Ukrainian can drop a grenade from the hobby drone and take out a tank and then rinse it out and use it I don't think we have much to worry about as long as they keep the nukes in the silos.

They are not a superpower. They’re a regional threat and haven proven capable of killing tens of thousands of their neighbors civilians and soldiers. They are NOT capable of projecting power beyond their region. Russia can’t conduct a worldwide bombing mission with refueling. They can’t fight a war with a country on the other side of the planet. They can barely even fight a war with a country they share rail lines with.

What they are is an asymmetrical threat. They do cyber, propaganda, influencing culture, that kind of stuff. Every movement from the Green movement to civil/womens rights was infiltrated and turned from its stated goal towards weakening the USA as an institution. Every time Putin talks about western Christian family values (while bombing playgrounds and hospitals) he’s targeting an audience and is playing to conservatives with a goal in mind - swaying support from Ukraine to Russia.

They are also a nuclear power. Which in its own is pretty useless, since nobody with a brain believes they’ll ever be used. Unfortunately there’s plenty of mouth breathers who think Denver or London is going to catch a mushroom cloud if the Kerch Bridge catches a TLAM. And that vocal minority helps Russia sway US politicians and keeps Ukraine from being allowed to strike where it would really hurt the Russian war effort

Yep they won’t ever be in NATO and the EU won’t invite them either.

Translation:
"We'll wait a few months until Trump is in charge and he'll just deny this request since it will obviously expand the war. That way, we don't have to embarrass you and ourselves on an international stage... You see, the problem will just resolve itself"  

The EU already invited them some time ago and they began the (long and laborious) process to do so. Whether they eventually get into NATO remains to be seen.

They started open accession negotiations. Turkey started accession negotiations in 2005 and probably will never be a member.  Only way I see Ukraine joining the EU is if Ukraine throws Russia out. If Russia takes the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts I don’t see the EU accepting Ukraine.

It’s our war too since we assisted Russia in their goals in the 90s.

Ukraine will be a member of the EU regardless. As to whether that's a good thing for Ukraine or not, that's a different discussion. There's a reason why Brexit happened.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/23/europe/ukraine-zelensky-pennsylvania-us-visit-intl-hnk

Isn’t that the same deluded fantasy we laughed at Putin about when he naively assumed we’d just give him an invite to NATO without the messy process Sweden and Finland just had to put up with?  Except Ukraine also has territorial disputes outstanding and Hungary, Slovenia, and probably Germany are hard NO votes. I doubt Biden would agree either, he doesn’t want a decisive Ukrainian victory, the last three years have made that crystal clear.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/23/europe/ukraine-zelensky-pennsylvania-us-visit-intl-hnk

Given his timeline I’m not sure the USA could provide these quantities of long range missiles even if they approved everything Zelensky is asking for

We’re talking 5 or 6 weeks, at a unrealistic stretch maybe 8 weeks which I still doubt is a timeline that can be met

Absolutely not, and we've already said no for a few years now.

He knows this isn't even remotely possible. It's solely for shaping a narrative.

Going off his interview it’s appears he’s trying to message several audiences from Russian citizens in St Petersburg and Moscow to leaders of the global south as he put it and the USA but so far I’m not hearing anything that hasn’t been previously brought up, so I don’t think the likelihood of convincing those audiences is high. I see no changes from India or any other Global South country in regards to sanctions and  so far there’s no rioting in Moscow over what’s happening in Kursk, so unless this Hail Mary gets traction with Biden and Congress who are preoccupied with elections, potential Israel vs Hezbollah and trying to vote on a federal budget CR this week, the only audience remaining would be back in Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/23/world/gaza-israel-hamas-hezbollah





https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/article-821318

https://kyivindependent.com/biden-zelensky-talks-ukrainian-soldiers-want-more-weaponry-but-question-if-us-wants-russia-defeated/

He's the most ungrateful fuckstick I have seen in a long time.

I'd take back everything ever given to him by the US and tell him to go grovel at the feet of his fellow peons.

And that's pretty much it.

All the "they're going to steamroll Europe" crap is just nonsense.

The rooshins would have to go thru a MASSIVE decade+ build up of their conventional military to even attempt such a thing and guess what,  Europe has the same amount of time to build up their militaries to defend themselves from such a thing.

Other than Poland, the EU is 87% pussified cucktards who cheer while their women are being raped.    Prove me wrong

I know this is me playing catch-up, but that last part practically defines the US currently as well, in a HUGE way, and it has been the case for over a century