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Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:13:51 PM EST
[#1]
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Originally Posted By AbleArcher:

Me too.
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Originally Posted By AbleArcher:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By AbleArcher:

Like army engineers? What do they do?


What would army engineers have to do with airfields on islands?

I fucking wonder.

Me too.


Oh, that was a serious question?

AF has a rump engineering capacity compared to Army and the Navy cut the Seabees. If ports and airfields are to be repaired or built in wartime it’s going to be the Army doing most of it. And you can expect daily damage to airfields.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:16:06 PM EST
[#2]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


How many MFOM munitions presently fielded can hit a moving target? How many in inventory in 2030? How many can range static targets from locations in the first or second island chain where presently the U.S. has authorization to operate or expects to have permission during wartime?
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2030?
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:16:57 PM EST
[#3]
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

Educate us
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


That’s the wrong question.

Educate us


How many locations in the first and second island chain require air defense? How many are important for us to hold? On how many do we have the capacity to mount a ground defense? Where will the U.S. engage directly and where will we encourage partners to engage?
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:19:08 PM EST
[#4]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


Yes, and if you look at what went to Ukraine it’s nothing like 5 Aegis Cruisers capability.
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You better shit out an extra 5 Aegis destroyers then. Also tell our allies that have not received any patriot interceptors that they already bought the last 12 months that they just need to conjure up an Aegis destroyer.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:20:38 PM EST
[#5]
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

2030?
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Pick literally any year you want. MFOM isn’t presently useful against naval targets and almost no munitions have a relevant range for the beginning of the fight. They’ll come more into play the more naval battles we lose.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:20:43 PM EST
[#6]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


How many MFOM munitions presently fielded can hit a moving target? How many in inventory in 2030? How many can range static targets from locations in the first or second island chain where presently the U.S. has authorization to operate or expects to have permission during wartime?
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https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/industry/us-to-initiate-deliveries-of-taiwans-m1a2-abrams-tanks-himars-in-2024

Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:21:25 PM EST
[#7]
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Originally Posted By GoldenMead:


You better shit out an extra 5 Aegis destroyers then. Also tell our allies that have not received any patriot interceptors that they already bought the last 12 months that they just need to conjure up an Aegis destroyer.
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Navy is retiring Aegis cruisers. Thats what I’m talking about.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:22:27 PM EST
[#9]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


What would army engineers have to do with airfields on islands?

I fucking wonder.
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Build stuff and get heckled by the Infantry?
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:23:22 PM EST
[#10]
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:26:05 PM EST
[#11]
Looks like Ukraine broke through Russian defenses to reach Glushkovo.

Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:26:56 PM EST
[Last Edit: bigstick61] [#12]
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Originally Posted By Bohr_Adam:


The genius of the Kremlin's measures have been in how they've maintained their influence networks they built up on the Left during the Cold War while simultaneously building up parallel networks in the Right, each side containing those either oblivious to the manipulation or proud participants in a broader effort to "bring it all down."
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Originally Posted By Bohr_Adam:
Originally Posted By Zhukov:
@NY12er, @daemon734

I frequently read the German news magazine Cicero and found an interesting article that talks about how the German SPD is undermining all efforts to improve the German Army. I found some very interesting quotes and shoved them through Google Translate:

It could take decades for the German armed forces to become more becoming a war, the Conclusion of the If If experts: "In order to achieve the military population of 20 years ago, Germany would need 100 years at the current procurement rate." The stocks of the time could only be achieved in fighter-feather aircraft in around 15 years, in the fighting tanks in 40 years, and in artillery systems. In view of its war economy, Moscow would only need half a year to produce the overall holdings of the Bundeswehr. Contrary to all announcements, Germany effectively increased its military spending only one year after the start of the Russian war of aggression.

Work and social affairs alone will be spent more than three times as much money next year as on the defence budget. Olaf Scholz's phrase "Without security is nothing" by Olaf Scholz at the Munich Security Conference in February of this year, neither he nor his coalition seem to be taken seriously.

The state does not fulfill the constitutional mandate to enable armed forces to defend them and cannot fulfil it even for the foreseeable future, quotes the security expert Christian M lling. And the SPD-affiliated think tank department for the future now speaks in a study even about state failure, because by 2030, more than 100 billion euros would be missing.

Pathetic.


The genius of the Kremlin's measures have been in how they've maintained their influence networks they built up on the Left during the Cold War while simultaneously building up parallel networks in the Right, each side containing those either oblivious to the manipulation or proud participants in a broader effort to "bring it all down."


Yup.  It is one of the few things they are really good at.  It's amazing how many on the Right here in the U.S. readily allowed themselves to become useful idiots.  Even at the peak of my pessimism and cynicism I would have never thought it would be to that degree.  It is quite disheartening to see and it has allowed the Russians to manipulate the voting public and by extension officeholders.

It's also interesting how similar the talking points they have gotten the Right to adopt over the years are very similar or identical to those of the Left.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:28:13 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#13]
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:28:52 PM EST
[#14]
We are like two months into "Russia is winning!!!"

I wonder if you as the conscripts "Are y'all winning?" in a candid moment what their answer would be... Something like 90% of them are new since Bakhmut. They rotated the corpses out for R&R. Fresh troops and morale
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:29:07 PM EST
[#15]
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Originally Posted By SGT_Tentpeg:



Build stuff and get heckled by the Infantry?
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Originally Posted By SGT_Tentpeg:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


What would army engineers have to do with airfields on islands?

I fucking wonder.



Build stuff and get heckled by the Infantry?

Being an engineer sounds gay.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:30:24 PM EST
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History


Denying those will prevent the war.

Less weapons of war, less war
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:31:37 PM EST
[#17]
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Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
We are like two months into "Russia is winning!!!"

I wonder if you as the conscripts "Are y'all winning?" in a candid moment what their answer would be... Something like 90% of them are new since Bakhmut. They rotated the corpses out for R&R. Fresh troops and morale
View Quote


Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:31:42 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


How many locations in the first and second island chain require air defense? How many are important for us to hold? On how many do we have the capacity to mount a ground defense? Where will the U.S. engage directly and where will we encourage partners to engage?
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Which partners? Where?

As far as how many - more than the size of Ukraine


Measure out those 1st and 2nd island chains against the size of Ukraine. The Pacific Ocean is huge let alone a war on the Korean Peninsula requiring tanks, artillery and air defense etc.


Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:32:19 PM EST
[#19]
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Originally Posted By bigstick61:


Yup.  It is one of the few things they are really good at.  It's amazing how many on the Right here in the U.S. readily allowed themselves to become useful idiots.  Even at the peak of my pessimism and cynicism I would have never thought it would be to that degree.  It is quite disheartening to see and it has allowed the Russians to manipulate officeholders.
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I forget the name of the guys organization but a professional investigator of Russia said that the left went to Russia for free but the right at least wanted to be paid for it.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:33:50 PM EST
[#20]
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

Which partners? Where?

As far as how many - more than the size of Ukraine


Measure out those 1st and 2nd island chains against the size of Ukraine
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See? Thats why things that float are more useful than things that don’t, in that region. Now we are getting somewhere.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:39:24 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#21]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:

See? Thats why things that float are more useful than things that don’t, in that region. Now we are getting somewhere.
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Good luck with that because the DOD doesn’t see eye to eye with that. Navy tried to sell that concept


https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/global-force-symposium/2024/04/01/army-office-in-charge-of-rapid-development-takes-on-guam-air-defense/






https://www.airandspaceforces.com/guam-missile-defense-control-china/



Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:42:23 PM EST
[#22]
DOD is fucked up like polio and the political class is worse.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 7:58:23 PM EST
[#23]
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

Air Force Pacific island  plans might dusagree with that
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
The Navy retiring Ticonderogas has more negative effect on combat power in the pacific than the entire Ukraine war.

Air Force Pacific island  plans might dusagree with that
Quad packing PAC3s in Burkes could help a bunch too, but that brings us back to the Patriot production issue as well.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:07:15 PM EST
[Last Edit: Missilegeek] [#24]
Imagine being the lone global nuclear superpower and being foolish enough to believe that you need a giant inventory of ships and conventional missiles to fight a second rate strategic nuclear power, because they have a big Navy and a bunch of missiles in the Pacific.

The ability of the MIC to convince the DoD that Nukes are for some reason irrelevant, is amazing both in the audacity it takes to make such a proposal, and the stupidity it takes to believe it.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:11:51 PM EST
[#25]
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Originally Posted By xd341:
Quad packing PAC3s in Burkes could help a bunch too, but that brings us back to the Patriot production issue as well.
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CRI could dual or quad pack but MSE doesn’t. Not in a Mk41 at least.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:12:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#26]
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:14:19 PM EST
[#27]
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Originally Posted By Missilegeek:
Imagine being the lone global nuclear superpower and being foolish enough to believe that you need a giant inventory of ships and conventional missiles to fight a second rate strategic nuclear power, because they have a big Navy and a bunch of missiles in the Pacific.

The ability of the MIC to convince the DoD that Nukes are for some reason irrelevant, is amazing both in the audacity it takes to make such a proposal, and the stupidity it takes to believe it.
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Imagine being the population whose elected avatars eat up the assessment up like candy and fund the ridiculous budget to counter it.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:19:25 PM EST
[#28]
What ridiculous budget? Defense spending is at an 80 year low as a percentage of the budget.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:30:07 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#29]
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Originally Posted By xd341:
Quad packing PAC3s in Burkes could help a bunch too, but that brings us back to the Patriot production issue as well.
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Whatever we’re all talking about, in the end whether it’s nuclear missiles or conventional it’s a lot of air defense related needs on the ground, up in space, in the ocean and there’s no such thing as we got too much - that’s not from me that’s from the DOD, South Korean government, Japan and Taiwan governments.

This idea that aiding Ukraine carries no cost or such insignificant cost that it’s not even worth bringing up is ridiculous. Xi Jingping just demanded improved air defense, Zelensky says he needs more air defense and he’s received twice the amount Ukraine initially received, Israel needs air defense, South Korea, Japan, etc.

The simple fact is everyone before the Ukraine war and now needs more air defense. That’s not a slam on Ukraine. It’s simple math.

But I’m positive a year from now we’ll be right back to posts about how assisting Ukraine carried no significant costs elsewhere in the world.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:31:53 PM EST
[#30]
Don’t look at me I didn’t say that.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:42:47 PM EST
[#31]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


CRI could dual or quad pack but MSE doesn't. Not in a Mk41 at least.
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Well where the shit did I get the idea that the version integrated with Aegis could quad pack?  Did they integrate CRI or was that just an idea I saw somewhere?
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:45:11 PM EST
[#32]
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Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
We are like two months into "Russia is winning!!!"

I wonder if you as the conscripts "Are y'all winning?" in a candid moment what their answer would be... Something like 90% of them are new since Bakhmut. They rotated the corpses out for R&R. Fresh troops and morale
View Quote

Vuledar is going to fall in a few weeks if not sooner. Those guys haven’t been rotated since 2022, ask them about morale. It’s really perplexing how so many buy into Ukrainian casualty narratives without a thought. Who is fixed in place and degraded with stand off weapons in every corner of the front? Who has the firepower advantage? Who has to resort to press gangs and East German border policies to try and fill ranks? Both sides are no doubt suffering, but Ukraine’s casualties are significantly higher. It’s simple math.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:46:32 PM EST
[#33]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Don't look at me I didn't say that.
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Hell I'm the guy he quoted and I've said exactly the opposite of that...like a dozen times
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:50:54 PM EST
[#34]
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Originally Posted By xd341:
Well where the shit did I get the idea that the version integrated with Aegis could quad pack?  Did they integrate CRI or was that just an idea I saw somewhere?
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There was talk originally about CRI and then MSE. And some speculation before goals were downsized. Navy has a new, larger VLS cell too, but that comes with its own clusterfuck.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 8:52:48 PM EST
[#35]
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Originally Posted By Citadel-SC:

Vuledar is going to fall in a few weeks if not sooner. Those guys haven’t been rotated since 2022, ask them about morale. It’s really perplexing how so many buy into Ukrainian casualty narratives without a thought. Who is fixed in place and degraded with stand off weapons in every corner of the front? Who has the firepower advantage? Who has to resort to press gangs and East German border policies to try and fill ranks? Both sides are no doubt suffering, but Ukraine’s casualties are significantly higher. It’s simple math.
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There aren’t any sources in the world other than Russian and Russian aligned sources that think Ukraine has had more casualties.

And Russia closed its border to exit by military aged males also. You may not have heard that on TACC.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:05:40 PM EST
[#36]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
What ridiculous budget? Defense spending is at an 80 year low as a percentage of the budget.
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It's the biggest budget on the planet, by a lot, for a generation.

Adjusted for inflation, the biggest budget ever.

Do we feel like we have a bigger budget than Reagan?

We are getting massively ripped off. Sure we could spend more as a % of GDP, but why would we do that when 87% of it is an absolute waste?
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:08:21 PM EST
[#37]
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Originally Posted By xd341:
Well where the shit did I get the idea that the version integrated with Aegis could quad pack?  Did they integrate CRI or was that just an idea I saw somewhere?
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Originally Posted By xd341:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


CRI could dual or quad pack but MSE doesn't. Not in a Mk41 at least.
Well where the shit did I get the idea that the version integrated with Aegis could quad pack?  Did they integrate CRI or was that just an idea I saw somewhere?


ESSM is real.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:10:17 PM EST
[#38]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


There aren’t any sources in the world other than Russian and Russian aligned sources that think Ukraine has had more casualties.

And Russia closed its border to exit by military aged males also. You may not have heard that on TACC.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By Citadel-SC:

Vuledar is going to fall in a few weeks if not sooner. Those guys haven’t been rotated since 2022, ask them about morale. It’s really perplexing how so many buy into Ukrainian casualty narratives without a thought. Who is fixed in place and degraded with stand off weapons in every corner of the front? Who has the firepower advantage? Who has to resort to press gangs and East German border policies to try and fill ranks? Both sides are no doubt suffering, but Ukraine’s casualties are significantly higher. It’s simple math.


There aren’t any sources in the world other than Russian and Russian aligned sources that think Ukraine has had more casualties.

And Russia closed its border to exit by military aged males also. You may not have heard that on TACC.

Explain in detail how you think that to be true.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:15:46 PM EST
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Missilegeek:


It's the biggest budget on the planet, by a lot, for a generation.

Adjusted for inflation, the biggest budget ever.

Do we feel like we have a bigger budget than Reagan?

We are getting massively ripped off. Sure we could spend more as a % of GDP, but why would we do that when 87% of it is an absolute waste?
View Quote

When you adjust for purchasing power China probably spends more than we do, and they don’t have to go around the world.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:16:57 PM EST
[#40]
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Originally Posted By Citadel-SC:

Explain in detail how you think that to be true.
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Why Ukrainian casualties would be lower? They fight in the defense and are less wasteful of lives. Russians are attacking like Zhukov, as if casualties don’t matter. In a way they don’t, a guy has to die for his commander to keep his wages.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:17:21 PM EST
[#41]
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Originally Posted By Missilegeek:


ESSM is real.
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Originally Posted By Missilegeek:
Originally Posted By xd341:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


CRI could dual or quad pack but MSE doesn't. Not in a Mk41 at least.
Well where the shit did I get the idea that the version integrated with Aegis could quad pack?  Did they integrate CRI or was that just an idea I saw somewhere?


ESSM is real.

Yes but vastly different capabilities.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:18:37 PM EST
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


There aren’t any sources in the world other than Russian and Russian aligned sources that think Ukraine has had more casualties.

And Russia closed its border to exit by military aged males also. You may not have heard that on TACC.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By Citadel-SC:

Vuledar is going to fall in a few weeks if not sooner. Those guys haven’t been rotated since 2022, ask them about morale. It’s really perplexing how so many buy into Ukrainian casualty narratives without a thought. Who is fixed in place and degraded with stand off weapons in every corner of the front? Who has the firepower advantage? Who has to resort to press gangs and East German border policies to try and fill ranks? Both sides are no doubt suffering, but Ukraine’s casualties are significantly higher. It’s simple math.


There aren’t any sources in the world other than Russian and Russian aligned sources that think Ukraine has had more casualties.

And Russia closed its border to exit by military aged males also. You may not have heard that on TACC.

Every article says Russia was planning to do so or no decision was made, all date to 2022. Are you really suggesting that Russia bars all men aged to 60 from leaving the country?
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:19:46 PM EST
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Missilegeek:


ESSM is real.
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Yeah the first quad packed setup, but I was all exited cause patriot...with Aegis brains.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:20:36 PM EST
[#44]
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:23:37 PM EST
[Last Edit: BillofRights] [#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Citadel-SC:

Vuledar is going to fall in a few weeks if not sooner. Those guys haven’t been rotated since 2022, ask them about morale. It’s really perplexing how so many buy into Ukrainian casualty narratives without a thought. Who is fixed in place and degraded with stand off weapons in every corner of the front? Who has the firepower advantage? Who has to resort to press gangs and East German border policies to try and fill ranks? Both sides are no doubt suffering, but Ukraine’s casualties are significantly higher. It’s simple math.
View Quote


It’s hilarious that you use the term “Simple Math”.       Simple Math has always favored the defender, for obvious reasons.  

It got worse with the Napoleonic Wars, and our own Civil War, and worse still in WW-1.    It’s worse today, when you can’t move at all without being seen by satellites and drones, and you can be targeted almost instantly by drone directed Artillery, Himars and attack drones.    Don’t take my word for it.  Look it up yourself.

Every military leader knows this, and plans for it.   It’s also basic common sense for everybody.   (Except those crippled by Russian propaganda)

Russia does have the advantage in lobbing standoff FAB’s, but they haven’t had enough planes to be decisive.    Obviously, Ukraine needs to find a way to mitigate that threat.    We should have supplied defensive aircraft immediately.  
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:24:12 PM EST
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:

When you adjust for purchasing power China probably spends more than we do, and they don't have to go around the world.
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They certainly have been shitting out big ticket assets like monster cruisers, carriers and strategic weapons a lot faster than we do.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:24:22 PM EST
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Citadel-SC:

Every article says Russia was planning to do so or no decision was made, all date to 2022. Are you really suggesting that Russia bars all men aged to 60 from leaving the country?
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No, as a matter of law they bar exit by those who have been conscripted, in practice its men of conscription age. You really don’t want to get into Russian military recruiting practices, they are brutal and can include rape.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:25:42 PM EST
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:

When you adjust for purchasing power China probably spends more than we do, and they don’t have to go around the world.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By Missilegeek:


It's the biggest budget on the planet, by a lot, for a generation.

Adjusted for inflation, the biggest budget ever.

Do we feel like we have a bigger budget than Reagan?

We are getting massively ripped off. Sure we could spend more as a % of GDP, but why would we do that when 87% of it is an absolute waste?

When you adjust for purchasing power China probably spends more than we do, and they don’t have to go around the world.


I guess we should get to work being less corrupt and more efficient than the CCP.

It's understandable that we don't want to compete with slave labor, but there's a significant delta between that and what is happening. Paying $60,000+ per switchblade, and $3m per cruise missile is not the answer. "More air defense" at $3m to $10m per shot is also not the answer.

When it comes to deterring China, a coherent forward basing strategy, backed by a credible Triad is all we need. We don't need piles of expensive missiles, because getting into a giant missile fight with China is the most fucking retarded strategy and planning that one could conceive. Only complete fucking idiots think it is acceptable.

"I have an idea guys, let's try to beat the enemy at their own game, on their home turf!!!" -Carl Von Clusterfuck
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:28:37 PM EST
[#49]
Projections of nuclear first strikes on China apparently still showed 75 missiles getting through.
Link Posted: 9/24/2024 9:29:46 PM EST
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


Why Ukrainian casualties would be lower? They fight in the defense and are less wasteful of lives. Russians are attacking like Zhukov, as if casualties don’t matter. In a way they don’t, a guy has to die for his commander to keep his wages.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By Citadel-SC:

Explain in detail how you think that to be true.


Why Ukrainian casualties would be lower? They fight in the defense and are less wasteful of lives. Russians are attacking like Zhukov, as if casualties don’t matter. In a way they don’t, a guy has to die for his commander to keep his wages.

That’s it? You fell for the human wave trope? Russia has an anywhere from 5-1 to 10-1 firepower advantage depending on the front. Russia lobes several hundred glide bombs into Ukrainian lines weekly, the Ukrainians have no answer and no analogy. The Ukrainians insist on defending every inch and often reinforce failure. The Russian strategy is to fix the Ukrainians in place, which they seem all to willing to abide, and then degrade and attrit them with fires. The Russians also have adopted small unit tactics quite successfully and don’t maneuver in masse. Studies have shown around 12% of casualties are from small arms. Just be cause the Ukrainians are on the defense does not mean less casualties by default and history shows such often. You guys saw the Wagner prisoner units get eaten up and projected that on to the whole war. It’s a simple deduction. But hey I’ll just believe western sources that basically claim the Russian army has been destroyed 3 times over and according to the Ukrainians has lost more equipment then it ever had. Yet here we are…just as predicted earlier in the thread.
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