User Panel
Page 1344 is mine.
What's max pain on MVIS this week, maybe $3.50 or $4? After last week, I'd be happy to see it pegged to $3.50 in four days. |
|
R.I.P. Brian Michael Wallace, AKA FCSD2162
https://givesendgo.com/Brianwallace |
Originally Posted By shblackdragon: Canadian farmers (and northern US ones) will get a late start because they still have snow; a quick search says maybe early to mid may at best. Would this, plus what you list above push the peak back much? Looks like early june peak last year; 1-2 months after seeding? View Quote North Dakota will be planting well into june this year. |
|
"Republic, I like the sound of the word. It means people can live free, talk free, go or come, buy or sell, be drunk or sober however they choose." John Wayne
|
Originally Posted By Osprey61: Great video. Couple of points...the shorts (and competitor's stock holders) are already hyperventilating about the cooling fins. Guess I'd be attacking something...anything...I could at this point. They're being used because the testing is being done with a FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), instead of the ASIC the unit will run in the final config, which is much cooler. They really should have spared a few seconds to do a little technical explanation, but I understand keeping it at the whiz-bang level for a PR video. Some talk about overclocking for testing purposes too, but I'd be lying if I understood how you run a computer faster than it's intended limits. The only manufacturer doing complex scenario, high speed maneuver testing. That's huge, and should have been foot-stomped, too. The "highway" design Volvo is testing only allows the system to be turned on when the system says it's safe to do so, and the parameters turn out to be highly restrictive. After one of Elon's autos hit an aircraft a day or so ago he has to be watching this pretty closely...or at least his engineers are. You really begin to understand how incredibly complex this whole enterprise really is...computer vision, and active computer guidance based on that input is next level indeed. Starting to understand why Sumit says in many aspects this parallels the actual computer revolution. View Quote @2:00 into the video appears to me to be a great reason why you would want LIDAR over traditional camera detection. driving from a bright area into a dark tunnel, we all know how it takes a second for our eyes to adjust to the "darkness" and cameras only have so much WDR that they can apply so I'm guessing that that parked van would be somewhat hidden from a camera on that moving care edit: LOL, should have watched the rest of the video before posting. |
|
|
What's Twitter going to do at open? Agreed purchase per share is $54.20. Stock is at $51.93. Is it even going to trade or is it closed?
|
|
The Frog is Pepe. Someone shouts Hey Pepe @ Hillary rally, then Roger Stone Jedi Mindfucked someone in the Hillary campaign by putting Pepe in the Deplorables meme and now the shit is getting real.
|
Originally Posted By 1969GTX: What's Twitter going to do at open? Agreed purchase per share is $54.20. Stock is at $51.93. Is it even going to trade or is it closed? View Quote It will trade in the neighborhood of $52 and gradually inch closer to $54.20 the nearer we get to the closing date. |
|
FJB FBHO
|
|
|
The Frog is Pepe. Someone shouts Hey Pepe @ Hillary rally, then Roger Stone Jedi Mindfucked someone in the Hillary campaign by putting Pepe in the Deplorables meme and now the shit is getting real.
|
That reminds me, I need to see if Vanguard slipped a loan agreement into my Roth account docs and if there's a way to revoke it.
|
|
R.I.P. Brian Michael Wallace, AKA FCSD2162
https://givesendgo.com/Brianwallace |
Be heard now or be in the herd later.
The voice in your head is a liar. Cola-warrior.com. Spring is coming. Winner of the Great Shop War of 2014. Winner of Cola Warrior 5. |
Originally Posted By rustyboy: UAN is a k1-issuing limited partnership. They pay no taxes, you do as owner. Options in the ira, shares in cash account. Its not really a big deal. Typically spring is peak pricing for nitrogen. It wasn't last year and probably won't be this year. EU used to make 10ish % and Russia and Ukraine each about 10%. Nat gas in EU is so high most plants are shuttered or are being paid by government to run, as CO2 for dry ice is a required byproduct of ammonia production. Most Russian leaves through Black sea, which isn't happening. Global demand has never been higher, as wheat and corn are at record prices and use most of it. Russian production may make its way over to India as urea. Natural gas in EU is driving force for ammonia floor. It takes 34MMBTUs of natural gas to make a ton of ammonia. Dutch ttf is above $30 for the next 11 months. Do the math. Over the next two quarters, uan should distribute nearly $30/share. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By rustyboy: Originally Posted By apexcrusade: I am watching these - might start one of them on this downturn which I do think it is nothing other than general market skittishness. Can someone confirm whether UAN issues a K-1? Seems they are a Ltd Prtnsrshp? Thoughts on IPI? I was going to start with this one. UAN is a k1-issuing limited partnership. They pay no taxes, you do as owner. Options in the ira, shares in cash account. Its not really a big deal. Typically spring is peak pricing for nitrogen. It wasn't last year and probably won't be this year. EU used to make 10ish % and Russia and Ukraine each about 10%. Nat gas in EU is so high most plants are shuttered or are being paid by government to run, as CO2 for dry ice is a required byproduct of ammonia production. Most Russian leaves through Black sea, which isn't happening. Global demand has never been higher, as wheat and corn are at record prices and use most of it. Russian production may make its way over to India as urea. Natural gas in EU is driving force for ammonia floor. It takes 34MMBTUs of natural gas to make a ton of ammonia. Dutch ttf is above $30 for the next 11 months. Do the math. Over the next two quarters, uan should distribute nearly $30/share. I forgot to ask - isn't there a degree of idiosyncratic 'war' risk here - if the war lasts long enough do you see the market adjusting around the loss of RU and UKR to eventually replace the shrinkage? (And what about the opposite - war ends?) There is most likely a global covid re-opening component here as well keeping a cap on supply. |
|
|
What a crazy last couple of months. You more experienced guys seem to just keep rolling.
I'm laying low, and trying to scoop up some dips. |
|
United we stand, divided we fall!
I’m just here for the post count. |
Originally Posted By JarheadPatriot: What a crazy last couple of months. You more experienced guys seem to just keep rolling. I'm laying low, and trying to scoop up some dips. View Quote Yesterday was a good dip day. Got more DAC at 74-75 and ZIM at 49-50. Not sure where we're headed today though, could make yesterday a brilliant idea or the 2nd best dip this week so far. And, MSFT reports earnings after market close. I wonder if we see the same price action at the close and first 5 minutes after, to be able to do a flip like last time |
|
|
Originally Posted By apexcrusade: I forgot to ask - isn't there a degree of idiosyncratic 'war' risk here - if the war lasts long enough do you see the market adjusting around the loss of RU and UKR to eventually replace the shrinkage? (And what about the opposite - war ends?) There is most likely a global covid re-opening component here as well keeping a cap on supply. View Quote No, although the market may react like there is. Nitrogen fertilizer is extremely cyclical. Demand goes up as more people eat Western diet and also simply with mouths to feed. It increases slowly every year. Every plant is trying to run 100% all the time. Due to historical under investment, we reached a tipping point with demand>supply end of 2019. COVID masked it for a year, as ethanol demand fell big time. Building the next big plant, probably in Middle East, hasn't started yet, will require 3ish Billion in capital, and 4 years. Then supply will be greater than demand and price will plummet. No one has broke ground yet. The UKR/RUS deal just accelerated the end game, which is sky high prices. If you look at retail prices, all started marching up in Nov/Dec. They haven't really moved since the invasion. Mr market may have a different option, but this is a longer game. Retail here. UAN is about 20% ammonia tons and 78% uan32, with a sprinkle of urea. |
|
|
R.I.P. Brian Michael Wallace, AKA FCSD2162
https://givesendgo.com/Brianwallace |
Originally Posted By PepePewPew: An investor with a good crystal ball could have bought for 137 yesterday and sold for a $15 profit 3 hours later? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By PepePewPew: Originally Posted By rustyboy: UAN is about 20% ammonia tons and 78% uan32, with a sprinkle of urea. An investor with a good crystal ball could have bought for 137 yesterday and sold for a $15 profit 3 hours later? Or, in at 137 and out at 395 next year? I need to get that 137. Wasn't ready for it and today I see upward price pressure again (so far) well, on 214 shares traded! |
|
|
Originally Posted By PepePewPew: An investor with a good crystal ball could have bought for 137 yesterday and sold for a $15 profit 3 hours later? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
|
Nyet means yes
|
Originally Posted By Rumrunner358: $140 was close enough for me View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Rumrunner358: Originally Posted By PepePewPew: Originally Posted By rustyboy: UAN is about 20% ammonia tons and 78% uan32, with a sprinkle of urea. An investor with a good crystal ball could have bought for 137 yesterday and sold for a $15 profit 3 hours later? This seems to go into a selloff early on and for a couple of hours before leveling.. See if that happens again - might place an order at 145 |
|
|
Originally Posted By apexcrusade: This seems to go into a selloff early on and for a couple of hours before leveling.. See if that happens again - might place an order at 145 View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Originally Posted By Rumrunner358: Originally Posted By PepePewPew: Originally Posted By rustyboy: UAN is about 20% ammonia tons and 78% uan32, with a sprinkle of urea. An investor with a good crystal ball could have bought for 137 yesterday and sold for a $15 profit 3 hours later? This seems to go into a selloff early on and for a couple of hours before leveling.. See if that happens again - might place an order at 145 gonna put another small buy order in around the same amount I think |
|
Nyet means yes
|
Ya, the 10x ebitda minus debt is real. The past and future quarters: 22, 66, 140 (we are here), 260, 415, 455, 517. I imagine the ratio will soften, but I can't see a way they aren't $400 in Dec. This quarter will be 129MM, replacing 4MM, and a $4 distribution replacing a zero. Next quarter should be 230MMish and a distribution of 24ish replacing $1.7. Q3 will be softer, as both plants have month long maintenance, but should still double the Q3 21 distro of 2.93.
Putting in futures for natural gas and urea for 2023, I get $60+ in distributions. |
|
|
R.I.P. Brian Michael Wallace, AKA FCSD2162
https://givesendgo.com/Brianwallace |
One last UAN note. After the distribution is announced, if it is large, watch for crazy option volume. Some one big plays a game in which pinning the price ex-date to options expiry maximizes their profit. They have done it 3 quarters in a row. They take advantage of option holders who do not excerize to capture the dividend, when that is the most economic move.
|
|
|
Originally Posted By rustyboy: One last UAN note. After the distribution is announced, if it is large, watch for crazy option volume. Some one big plays a game in which pinning the price ex-date to options expiry maximizes their profit. They have done it 3 quarters in a row. They take advantage of option holders who do not excerize to capture the dividend, when that is the most economic move. View Quote So you're saying write covered calls, and buy back the calls the instant it goes ex-dividend if the calls aren't exercised? |
|
R.I.P. Brian Michael Wallace, AKA FCSD2162
https://givesendgo.com/Brianwallace |
Originally Posted By PepePewPew: Sounds like it wouldn't take too many shares in an IRA to hit $1000 in unrelated business taxable income. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By PepePewPew: Originally Posted By rustyboy: Putting in futures for natural gas and urea for 2023, I get $60+ in distributions. Sounds like it wouldn't take too many shares in an IRA to hit $1000 in unrelated business taxable income. What part if any of that though is UBTI? I wouldn't risk it with this one. |
|
|
Originally Posted By PepePewPew: So you're saying write covered calls, and buy back the calls the instant it goes ex-dividend if the calls aren't exercised? View Quote Last quarter, they wrote 30% of the float in calls the day before ex-date and exercised them all. Ud get called away. It was 95%+ of open interest. |
|
|
Originally Posted By apexcrusade: What part if any of that though is UBTI? I wouldn't risk it with this one. View Quote No one has a great feel for it. Because most investment houses do the work, I've never seen the actual numbers. I agree though, I buy long ATM calls in IRA and shares in cash. |
|
|
Originally Posted By Total53: Ok Tango here's your chance. I have about $30k worth of powder that will be dry in the morning. https://media.giphy.com/media/9lzQcmIgQAs9KHfeRn/giphy.gif View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Total53: Originally Posted By Tango: Key reason to invest for me... Ok Tango here's your chance. I have about $30k worth of powder that will be dry in the morning. https://media.giphy.com/media/9lzQcmIgQAs9KHfeRn/giphy.gif What could go wrong? |
|
|
Originally Posted By rustyboy: No one has a great feel for it. Because most investment houses do the work, I've never seen the actual numbers. I agree though, I buy long ATM calls in IRA and shares in cash. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By rustyboy: Originally Posted By apexcrusade: What part if any of that though is UBTI? I wouldn't risk it with this one. No one has a great feel for it. Because most investment houses do the work, I've never seen the actual numbers. I agree though, I buy long ATM calls in IRA and shares in cash. Yep. Say, along with TSE, maybe take a look at DOW, the company DOW, inc. I am in that one 50-'s - low 60's. edit; One thing I've noticed about UAN, it seems to have very low volume. That could be a good indicator for a price move |
|
|
Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Yep. Say, along with TSE, maybe take a look at DOW, the company DOW, inc. I am in that one 50-'s - low 60's. edit; One thing I've noticed about UAN, it seems to have very low volume. That could be a good indicator for a price move View Quote There are less than 11MM shares and 3.5ish are held by their general partner and don't trade. |
|
|
10AM and all smells...
When I got up at 6am, MVIS was 3.29. I wonder if Vanguard would have let me sell at that hour? |
|
R.I.P. Brian Michael Wallace, AKA FCSD2162
https://givesendgo.com/Brianwallace |
Originally Posted By PepePewPew: 10AM and all smells... When I got up at 6am, MVIS was 3.29. I wonder if Vanguard would have let me sell at that hour? View Quote I can sell start of premarket at 7am but not 6. Even then if one guy puts a sell up at 3.29 and no one buys well it'll show that premarket is at 3.29 I've seen huge bid / ask price spreads on premarket many times |
|
|
Originally Posted By rustyboy: There are less than 11MM shares and 3.5ish are held by their general partner and don't trade. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By rustyboy: Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Yep. Say, along with TSE, maybe take a look at DOW, the company DOW, inc. I am in that one 50-'s - low 60's. edit; One thing I've noticed about UAN, it seems to have very low volume. That could be a good indicator for a price move There are less than 11MM shares and 3.5ish are held by their general partner and don't trade. UAN trying to break out - re your comment on non traded shares- I have an interesting one - TFSL (a savings and loan) is held 81% (I think) by a MHC mutual holding company and not traded! Look at it as a publicly traded corporation that bought back 81% of it's shares. I got in on that one in the event the MHC buys back some or all of the traded shares, and it pays a really nice dividend And I looked and seems the 81% might be as high as 87% or so. |
|
|
Originally Posted By apexcrusade: I have an interesting one - TFSL (a savings and loan) is held 81% (I think) by a MHC mutual holding company and not traded! Look at it as a publicly traded corporation that bought back 81% of it's shares. I got in on that one in the event the MHC buys back some or all of the traded shares, and it pays a really nice dividend And I looked and seems the 81% might be as high as 87% or so. View Quote EPS: 0.25 Annual Dividends: 1.13 WTF? |
|
R.I.P. Brian Michael Wallace, AKA FCSD2162
https://givesendgo.com/Brianwallace |
Originally Posted By PepePewPew: EPS: 0.25 Annual Dividends: 1.13 WTF? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By PepePewPew: Originally Posted By apexcrusade: I have an interesting one - TFSL (a savings and loan) is held 81% (I think) by a MHC mutual holding company and not traded! Look at it as a publicly traded corporation that bought back 81% of it's shares. I got in on that one in the event the MHC buys back some or all of the traded shares, and it pays a really nice dividend And I looked and seems the 81% might be as high as 87% or so. EPS: 0.25 Annual Dividends: 1.13 WTF? Crazy, right? The board is paying out it's dividends to the public shares, they've waived the right to them, so the dividends on the 81% that belongs to them is paid to the approx 11% of publicly traded shares. I think the MHC owns 81%, other institutional owns about 9% and the rest is retail, to clear that up |
|
|
Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Crazy, right? The board is paying out it's dividends to the public shares, they've waived the right to them, so the dividends on the 81% that belongs to them is paid to the approx 11% of publicly traded shares. I think the MHC owns 81%, other institutional owns about 9% and the rest is retail, to clear that up View Quote So, 0.25 income per share outstanding, but the vast majority of the outstanding shares are effectively treasury stock and the 1.13 dividend is only paid to 1/5 of the shares? |
|
R.I.P. Brian Michael Wallace, AKA FCSD2162
https://givesendgo.com/Brianwallace |
Originally Posted By PepePewPew: So, 0.25 income per share outstanding, but the vast majority of the outstanding shares are effectively treasury stock and the 1.13 dividend is only paid to 1/5 of the shares? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By PepePewPew: Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Crazy, right? The board is paying out it's dividends to the public shares, they've waived the right to them, so the dividends on the 81% that belongs to them is paid to the approx 11% of publicly traded shares. I think the MHC owns 81%, other institutional owns about 9% and the rest is retail, to clear that up So, 0.25 income per share outstanding, but the vast majority of the outstanding shares are effectively treasury stock and the 1.13 dividend is only paid to 1/5 of the shares? Correct, but be aware the current waiver is authorized only through, I think June of this year. They renewed it last time, (and there is a 1.13 cap on the waiver) If not renewed then I would expect a dividend decrease of some type, so for that risk assume the worst, meaning plan for it to reduce to 28 cents +-. Normally I hold stuff for the passive income, this one does that now, but there is an asymmetrical upside if certain actions take place. Its interesting enough to be a small holding |
|
|
Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Crazy, right? The board is paying out it's dividends to the public shares, they've waived the right to them, so the dividends on the 81% that belongs to them is paid to the approx 11% of publicly traded shares. I think the MHC owns 81%, other institutional owns about 9% and the rest is retail, to clear that up View Quote And it trades at it's 52 week low |
|
"Problem in Venezuela is not that socialism has been poorly implemented, but that socialism has been faithfully implemented."
|
Blood bath. Time to buy more of....everything.
|
|
The Frog is Pepe. Someone shouts Hey Pepe @ Hillary rally, then Roger Stone Jedi Mindfucked someone in the Hillary campaign by putting Pepe in the Deplorables meme and now the shit is getting real.
|
Originally Posted By colt_thompson: And it trades at it's 52 week low View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By colt_thompson: Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Crazy, right? The board is paying out it's dividends to the public shares, they've waived the right to them, so the dividends on the 81% that belongs to them is paid to the approx 11% of publicly traded shares. I think the MHC owns 81%, other institutional owns about 9% and the rest is retail, to clear that up And it trades at it's 52 week low Yes. Another reason I am almost at a full position for now |
|
|
Originally Posted By 1969GTX: Blood bath. Time to buy more of....everything. View Quote Seems that I've read this multiple times over the last few months, and one blood bath leads to another, and another..... At some point, the bears win you just have to wait until some semblance of normalcy returns to the market. |
|
|
Originally Posted By 1969GTX: Blood bath. Time to buy more of....everything. View Quote How long - can't keep doing that! Been trying to free up cash for, forever and now tapped into margin. Lots of good things to buy, it seems. Maybe now is a good time to remember how high the market has become. Even T and WBD are looking good. |
|
|
Originally Posted By apexcrusade: How long - can't keep doing that! Been trying to free up cash for, forever and now tapped into margin. Lots of good things to buy, it seems. Maybe now is a good time to remember how high the market has become. Even T and WBD are looking good. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By apexcrusade: Originally Posted By 1969GTX: Blood bath. Time to buy more of....everything. How long - can't keep doing that! Been trying to free up cash for, forever and now tapped into margin. Lots of good things to buy, it seems. Maybe now is a good time to remember how high the market has become. Even T and WBD are looking good. MU is at a 52 week low so I added shares. More Mavis. |
|
The Frog is Pepe. Someone shouts Hey Pepe @ Hillary rally, then Roger Stone Jedi Mindfucked someone in the Hillary campaign by putting Pepe in the Deplorables meme and now the shit is getting real.
|
Market looking bad today.
|
|
Be heard now or be in the herd later.
The voice in your head is a liar. Cola-warrior.com. Spring is coming. Winner of the Great Shop War of 2014. Winner of Cola Warrior 5. |
|
Nyet means yes
|
|
Was expecting to have some dry powder at my disposal this morning after depositing a check from closing out an old mutual fund account last week. (broker wanted $75 for electronic transfer to bank.)
Now the bank is telling me it will take 6 more business days before the funds will be available. WTF. |
|
|
Originally Posted By tornadochaser: Was expecting to have some dry powder at my disposal this morning after depositing a check from closing out an old mutual fund account last week. (broker wanted $75 for electronic transfer to bank.) Now the bank is telling me it will take 6 more business days before the funds will be available. WTF. View Quote USAA has done that to me repeatedly on the proceeds from house sales, despite being a member for 34+ years now. Pretty sure it's just industry-wide SOP now. We just factor it in for all of the |
|
"Cease quoting laws to us who have swords"
|
Originally Posted By tornadochaser: Was expecting to have some dry powder at my disposal this morning after depositing a check from closing out an old mutual fund account last week. (broker wanted $75 for electronic transfer to bank.) Now the bank is telling me it will take 6 more business days before the funds will be available. WTF. View Quote I don't understand why in this age of technology these transfers aren't immediate. These banks act like there's a literal human delivering your suitcase of money to the bank and they have to wait for him to show up and then count it all. It's all imaginary numbers anyway. Click transfer, instant verification funds are indeed there, balance is now in your other account. Done. Step your game up banks good god |
|
|
Originally Posted By waldershrek: I don't understand why in this age of technology these transfers aren't immediate. These banks act like there's a literal human delivering your suitcase of money to the bank and they have to wait for him to show up and then count it all. It's all imaginary numbers anyway. Click transfer, instant verification funds are indeed there, balance is now in your other account. Done. Step your game up banks good god View Quote My only rational thought as to why there's a delay, is due to the sophistication that fake checks have nowdays. |
|
|
We tend to think of recessions as fairly short-lived events. The 2008 housing crash seemed to stretch on forever, but the recession it spawned was mostly over 18 months later. If you want to read about something really scary, look up Japan's "lost decade". Or better, don't.
Biden appears to be laying in deep-rooted, systemic damage that may not be easily - or quickly - mended. I try to turn off the media when the gloom becomes too oppressive...thank goodness summer is almost here, I can think of almost nothing more salubrious to the soul than fishing, whether the fish cooperate or not. |
|
"Cease quoting laws to us who have swords"
|
Does Twitter have a break up fee in the deal?
Pondering selling $52.50 puts on Twitter for January 2024 and collecting $500 + per contract |
|
"Problem in Venezuela is not that socialism has been poorly implemented, but that socialism has been faithfully implemented."
|
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.