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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:07:06 AM EST
[#1]
What's the point of this thread?
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:09:15 AM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What's the point of this thread? |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:13:26 AM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/manufacturing-is-now-smallest-share-of-u-s-economy-in-72-years Manufacturing made up 11% of gross domestic product in the second quarter, the smallest share in data going back to 1947 and down from 11.1% in the prior period, a Commerce Department report showed Tuesday. Figures before 2005 were for full years only. States like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that helped him win in 2016 are now losing factory jobs amid a persistent trade war with China and a weaker global economy. Trump approval rating down to 40%. GDP growth 1.9% (China 6%). No wall. Bump stock ban. Support of suppressor ban. Trouble on the horizon. 
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:14:02 AM EST
[#4]
Value of manufactured goods is at an all time, peace-time high even when adjusted for inflation.
US manufacturing taken by itself is greater than the total GDP of 7 other countries. Non manufacturing has simply grown faster. Jobs that used to be on-site are now remote, turning them from manufacturing jobs to service jobs. Productivity is at an all-time high. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:15:49 AM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Everyone I know in manufacturing (which is a lot of people/companies) is slammed. One factor that I have observed is that many shops are now doing the same work with 13-18 people that they used to do with 24-30 people. Parts are cheaper to make, as well. The net result is higher volume at a lower cost, so I would not be at all surprised to learn than total productivity is higher, even though the percentage of GDP may be down. Also, boosts to other sectors would naturally decrease percentage of GDP for manufacturing, even if manufacturing stayed consistent. I say this as someone who was opposed to the tariffs and expected a more significant impact. I was wrong and I can admit it. However there’s apparently no shortage of white, employment aged junkies living under overpasses... 
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:18:07 AM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
China GDP growth at 6% is a lie. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:21:37 AM EST
[#7]
I'm no never Trumper. I'm voting for him regardless of what the economy does. I'm glad we're sticking it to China even if it costs us something in the short term. Better to cost dollars than lives.
Still, here are my customers industries, and their rolling 12 month forecasts have been dropping for the last 6 months. This isn't Bloomberg or NYT. Real numbers and real dollars affecting my business: Construction Equipment OEM: dozers, backhoes, graders, haul trucks, excavators, cranes etc Forestry Equipment OEM: feller bunchers, skidders, processors Commercial HVAC OEM: think 100 ton plus air conditioners Rail OEM: Locomotives and cars Defense OEM: Trucks Agricultural Equipment OEM: Tractors, Combines, ground engaging equipment, harvesting equipment The only sector we currently do work for that hasn't fallen is Utility Service Equipment OEMs. And in my experience, they're somewhat detached from the others being less market based and having more or less constant demand from private and public customers. It's not a good market right now for these industries, and every signal I'm getting from these customers is it's going to get worse before it gets better. I don't think that means "the economy is crashing11!#4." I do think it could have an unfortunate impact on how the rust belt votes if it doesn't turn around in the next year. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:23:28 AM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Outsourcing increases profit but is bad for employment. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:25:30 AM EST
[#9]
Quoted:
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/manufacturing-is-now-smallest-share-of-u-s-economy-in-72-years Manufacturing made up 11% of gross domestic product in the second quarter, the smallest share in data going back to 1947 and down from 11.1% in the prior period, a Commerce Department report showed Tuesday. Figures before 2005 were for full years only. States like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that helped him win in 2016 are now losing factory jobs amid a persistent trade war with China and a weaker global economy. Trump approval rating down to 40%. GDP growth 1.9% (China 6%). No wall. Bump stock ban. Support of suppressor ban. Trouble on the horizon. I’ll point out that there is no adjustment for the UAW/GM strike given either. China’s growth is not 6%. [Rather than provide 87 million cites I suggest googling “real Chinese GDP growth.] Trump’s approval numbers match or beat Zero’s at the same point in Zero’s horrific administration. [ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-rating-higher-obama-1460076%3famp=1 ] The wall is being built, albeit much more slowly than we wish. More than 25% of the border will have new wall by the election. Given the opposition from every quarter, from Dems to RINOs to leftist federal judges that is actually remarkable. Trump isn’t near perfect on 2A, but only fools will fail to vote for him when the alternative is SO MUCH WORSE! |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:26:13 AM EST
[#10]
Read the OP but instead of reading the replies yet, I'm going to see how many BINGO points I get.
- "OP is a shill/Shareblue/Nevertrumper" aka Attack the source so you can ignore the story. - Attack the website as "fakenews" regardless if the info came from a government report. Again, allows you to ignore the report. - Spin/Deflect: "Trump had nothing to do with it." "It's actually good news because......" - Anecdotal evidence: "I work in this industry and the workload is through the roof! It's obviously fakenews." These are usually the main four replies for any negative articles about the economy. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:29:25 AM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm no never Trumper. I'm voting for him regardless of what the economy does. I'm glad we're sticking it to China even if it costs us something in the short term. Better to cost dollars than lives. Still, here are my customers industries, and their rolling 12 month forecasts have been dropping for the last 6 months. This isn't Bloomberg or NYT. Real numbers and real dollars affecting my business: Construction Equipment OEM: dozers, backhoes, graders, haul trucks, excavators, cranes etc Forestry Equipment OEM: feller bunchers, skidders, processors Commercial HVAC OEM: think 100 ton plus air conditioners Rail OEM: Locomotives and cars Defense OEM: Trucks Agricultural Equipment OEM: Tractors, Combines, ground engaging equipment, harvesting equipment The only sector we currently do work for that hasn't fallen is Utility Service Equipment OEMs. And in my experience, they're somewhat detached from the others being less market based and having more or less constant demand from private and public customers. It's not a good market right now for these industries, and every signal I'm getting from these customers is it's going to get worse before it gets better. I don't think that means "the economy is crashing11!#4." I do think it could have an unfortunate impact on how the rust belt votes if it doesn't turn around in the next year. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:29:26 AM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Read the OP but instead of reading the replies yet, I'm going to see how many BINGO points I get. - "OP is a shill/Shareblue/Nevertrumper" aka Attack the source so you can ignore the story. - Attack the website as "fakenews" regardless if the info came from a government report - Spin/Deflect: "Trump had nothing to do with it." "It's actually good news because......" - Anecdotal evidence: "I work in this industry and the workload is through the roof! It's obviously fakenews." These are usually the main four for any negative article about the economy. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:33:37 AM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sounds like manufacturing becoming more efficient. Agriculture became a much smaller share of our economy a few years back, because we got really good at it. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:34:26 AM EST
[#14]
Quoted:
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/manufacturing-is-now-smallest-share-of-u-s-economy-in-72-years Manufacturing made up 11% of gross domestic product in the second quarter, the smallest share in data going back to 1947 and down from 11.1% in the prior period, a Commerce Department report showed Tuesday. Figures before 2005 were for full years only. States like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that helped him win in 2016 are now losing factory jobs amid a persistent trade war with China and a weaker global economy. Trump approval rating down to 40%. GDP growth 1.9% (China 6%). No wall. Bump stock ban. Support of suppressor ban. Trouble on the horizon. 
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:39:57 AM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Manufacturing is not slowing, it’s just not growing as rapidly as other sectors. The NYT headline ought to read “Manufacturing Sector Growth Slows,” but that wouldn’t fit the narrative. Even Bloomberg’s headline doesn’t go there. Slowing would be negative growth. [The cites for this are the same articles you cite.] I’ll point out that there is no adjustment for the UAW/GM strike given either. China’s growth is not 6%. [Rather than provide 87 million cites I suggest googling “real Chinese GDP growth.] Trump’s approval numbers match or beat Zero’s at the same point in Zero’s horrific administration. [ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-rating-higher-obama-1460076%3famp=1 ] The wall is being built, albeit much more slowly than we wish. More than 25% of the border will have new wall by the election. Given the opposition from every quarter, from Dems to RINOs to leftist federal judges that is actually remarkable. Trump isn’t near perfect on 2A, but only fools will fail to vote for him when the alternative is SO MUCH WORSE! |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:43:49 AM EST
[#16]
Trolls should be required to purchase a team account
Tell shareblue to kick in $24, while you give david Brock his reach around |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:46:21 AM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Read the OP but instead of reading the replies yet, I'm going to see how many BINGO points I get. - "OP is a shill/Shareblue/Nevertrumper" aka Attack the source so you can ignore the story. - Attack the website as "fakenews" regardless if the info came from a government report. Again, allows you to ignore the report. - Spin/Deflect: "Trump had nothing to do with it." "It's actually good news because......" - Anecdotal evidence: "I work in this industry and the workload is through the roof! It's obviously fakenews." These are usually the main four replies for any negative articles about the economy. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:54:09 AM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
LOL. Read the OP's article "manufacturing has added about half a million workers on the whole since Trump took office" |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 11:59:25 AM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Bloomberg? sigh. ETA: If people believe this and don't see the subtext and the context, along with manipulation of statistics... oh well, they were going to vote democrat anyway. 
"Alternative facts," indeed. You fools should realize that what's happening is an unprecedented bubble in advertising. That's the bulk of our 'product' now; advertising. Manipulation of each other. That's all the tech behemoths are; advertising companies. But hey, the economy is a confidence racket, and you need marketing to keep a confidence racket going. Of course, you need more & more all the time to keep people from getting wise to the game, so it's a ultimately a perfectly sustainable market sector. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:03:29 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You guys seriously think Bloomberg Business lies about easily-verified bulk economic figures like this, used by countless investors and brokers to make money?
"Alternative facts," indeed. You fools should realize that what's happening is an unprecedented bubble in advertising. That's the bulk of our 'product' now; advertising. Manipulation of each other. That's all the tech behemoths are; advertising companies. But hey, the economy is a confidence racket, and you need marketing to keep a confidence racket going. Of course, you need more & more all the time to keep people from getting wise to the game, so it's a ultimately a perfectly sustainable market sector. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Bloomberg? sigh. ETA: If people believe this and don't see the subtext and the context, along with manipulation of statistics... oh well, they were going to vote democrat anyway.
"Alternative facts," indeed. You fools should realize that what's happening is an unprecedented bubble in advertising. That's the bulk of our 'product' now; advertising. Manipulation of each other. That's all the tech behemoths are; advertising companies. But hey, the economy is a confidence racket, and you need marketing to keep a confidence racket going. Of course, you need more & more all the time to keep people from getting wise to the game, so it's a ultimately a perfectly sustainable market sector. 
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:06:04 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Exactly. Trump can’t be held accountable for any number of his failed promises. The blame lies solely at congresses feet. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I voted for a guy who wouldn't implement gun control and who would build a wall. Instead we have seen backdoor gun control and migrant surges. How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:08:25 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Notice how Bloomberg selected manufacturing instead of GDP. The article is designed to get people to ignore the following metrics: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-gdp.png?s=wgdpus&v=201907011342V20190821 https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-HU221_GDPC1_MG_20191029122648.png https://mgmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/US-GDP-1980-2020-2.png |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:12:32 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Pure propaganda. Not worth unraveling. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:13:23 PM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Read the OP but instead of reading the replies yet, I'm going to see how many BINGO points I get. - "OP is a shill/Shareblue/Nevertrumper" aka Attack the source so you can ignore the story. - Attack the website as "fakenews" regardless if the info came from a government report. Again, allows you to ignore the report. - Spin/Deflect: "Trump had nothing to do with it." "It's actually good news because......" - Anecdotal evidence: "I work in this industry and the workload is through the roof! It's obviously fakenews." These are usually the main four replies for any negative articles about the economy. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:14:19 PM EST
[#25]
Notice how seemingly-inconsequential the Global Financial Crisis was on the long-term trend in US Growth.
Now look at Germany's, the 3rd largest exporter in the world:  France:  China: 
So while the US GDP is still trending upwards regardless of who is in office, some of the world's largest economies are struggling or trending down and even negative growth. Next question: What nations in the US's sphere of influence are growing? 
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:16:17 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So all sectors grew, only shrinking manufacturing by 1% of total GDP.... where's my chicken little meme? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
OP, you and Bloomberg either fail to understand the report or are merely spouting propaganda. The report does show that manufacturing has decreased in our country at all. What you and Bloomberg are citing is table 5a of the report "Value added by Industry Group as a percentage of GDP". If you look at the previous table 5, you'll see that overall GDP has increased again this quarter. So why in table 5a did manufacturing shrink by 0.1% in the second quarter? Because table 5a shows all industry groups as a share of 100%. Manufacturing decreased by 0.1 % because other sectors increased their share of GDP. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:17:48 PM EST
[#27]
Huh? Could've fooled me.
I'm in manufacturing and we're busier today than we've been in the last 10 years. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:22:42 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
While I agree with you that the tact of the article is "orange man lied" and I am certainly not claiming a slight dip in manufacturing's contribution to GDP while GDP as a whole grows, is sign of an economy ready to drop, in the context of winning WI and PA or OH, etc, in 2020, it has some significance. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Notice how Bloomberg selected manufacturing instead of GDP. The article is designed to get people to ignore the following metrics: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-gdp.png?s=wgdpus&v=201907011342V20190821 https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-HU221_GDPC1_MG_20191029122648.png https://mgmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/US-GDP-1980-2020-2.png The employee base for US manufacturing should have been doing marketing, CAD drafting programs, learning CNC machine operations, chemical plant operations, and basic operations across a product cycle starting in their early teens, not wasting time doing whatever it is they do in HS and college. Europe, Japan, and South Korea have much of the trade skills worked out in their schooling models, whereas it's a foreign concept in the US nowadays. There are some States that are better than others with their tech programs, but for the most part, we really suck at vocational training. As a manufacturer myself, I'm constantly faced with the dilemma of keeping some of my products in the US, vs overseas because nobody wants to do the work. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:25:10 PM EST
[#29]
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:26:12 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Outsourcing increases profit but is bad for employment. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:27:53 PM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Real manufacturing output is still below the 2007 peak, and only slightly higher than it was in 2000. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:29:50 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: China's actual growth rate is probably more like 2-3? currently. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:29:51 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Employment's the best it's been in a long, long time, though. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Outsourcing increases profit but is bad for employment. If only we sat on the world's leading development sector for emerging and advanced technologies.... If only we had a multi-nodal landscape of cities with diverse industries and sectors.... If only we had connectivity and infrastructure that allows us to ship goods to each other within 2 days... |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:30:39 PM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
^^ How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I voted for a guy who wouldn't implement gun control and who would build a wall. Instead we have seen backdoor gun control and migrant surges. How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:31:01 PM EST
[#35]
Funny how they would publish that crap while we are in the middle of the largest manufacturing bump since probably WW2. I would love to see stats on how many new factories are going in.
I get a daily memo on the new factories going in or expansions, but I cant even keep track anymore. They had something that showed how many factories have gone in from when Trump got elected to how many they put in under that dip shit obama. Those are truly embarrassing numbers for the DNC. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:31:19 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm no never Trumper. I'm voting for him regardless of what the economy does. I'm glad we're sticking it to China even if it costs us something in the short term. Better to cost dollars than lives. Still, here are my customers industries, and their rolling 12 month forecasts have been dropping for the last 6 months. This isn't Bloomberg or NYT. Real numbers and real dollars affecting my business: Construction Equipment OEM: dozers, backhoes, graders, haul trucks, excavators, cranes etc Forestry Equipment OEM: feller bunchers, skidders, processors Commercial HVAC OEM: think 100 ton plus air conditioners Rail OEM: Locomotives and cars Defense OEM: Trucks Agricultural Equipment OEM: Tractors, Combines, ground engaging equipment, harvesting equipment The only sector we currently do work for that hasn't fallen is Utility Service Equipment OEMs. And in my experience, they're somewhat detached from the others being less market based and having more or less constant demand from private and public customers. It's not a good market right now for these industries, and every signal I'm getting from these customers is it's going to get worse before it gets better. I don't think that means "the economy is crashing11!#4." I do think it could have an unfortunate impact on how the rust belt votes if it doesn't turn around in the next year. Let’s take large fleets, particularly trucking and some contracting. Trucking companies were doing a 3 to 3.5 year turn on trucks. Meaning by the time the trucks were received, they’d be on the road 3 to 3.5 years before turned in. This turn is going to now 4.5 years to 5.5 years. Basically they’re planning to get longer life out of the trucks because the repairs are going down in cost to make keeping units longer, worth it. As well, they’re getting more expensive. So it’s worth the longer lease. This is the trucking / construction and ag equipment markets. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:33:20 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
^^ How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I voted for a guy who wouldn't implement gun control and who would build a wall. Instead we have seen backdoor gun control and migrant surges. How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. 
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:37:47 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Notice how Bloomberg selected manufacturing instead of GDP. The article is designed to get people to ignore the following metrics: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-gdp.png?s=wgdpus&v=201907011342V20190821 https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-HU221_GDPC1_MG_20191029122648.png https://mgmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/US-GDP-1980-2020-2.png Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Bloomberg? sigh. ETA: If people believe this and don't see the subtext and the context, along with manipulation of statistics... oh well, they were going to vote democrat anyway.
"Alternative facts," indeed. You fools should realize that what's happening is an unprecedented bubble in advertising. That's the bulk of our 'product' now; advertising. Manipulation of each other. That's all the tech behemoths are; advertising companies. But hey, the economy is a confidence racket, and you need marketing to keep a confidence racket going. Of course, you need more & more all the time to keep people from getting wise to the game, so it's a ultimately a perfectly sustainable market sector. https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-gdp.png?s=wgdpus&v=201907011342V20190821 https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-HU221_GDPC1_MG_20191029122648.png https://mgmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/US-GDP-1980-2020-2.png . That sector has been oddly underperforming the rest of the toasty economy all year. Manufacturing tends to be a more...sane? industry that's less effected by hype & bubbles, and was one of the first to do very well under the initial portion of Trump's tenure, so to see it decline steadily (if slowly) while the rest of the economy keeps running like genius-has-brain-will-travel Wylie E Coyote in addition to bonds inverting...Yeah, it's kinda worth mentioning, unless you're investing in an ostrich ranch or being paid to spin for Trump's re-election campaign.
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:41:52 PM EST
[#39]
How have wages done in the last 10 or so years?
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:42:09 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Says someone who doesn’t have a disposable $24, color me shocked Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Quoted: I voted for a guy who wouldn't implement gun control and who would build a wall. Instead we have seen backdoor gun control and migrant surges. How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. Lol, Good For You |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:45:45 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ^^ How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. 
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:46:54 PM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
My membership expiring a few weeks ago excuses you for being a Rolcon? Lol, Good For You Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I voted for a guy who wouldn't implement gun control and who would build a wall. Instead we have seen backdoor gun control and migrant surges. How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. Lol, Good For You |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:47:01 PM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We've been trending in relocating certain aspects of our manufacturing base to partner nations with emerging economies where education standards in their technical and vocational skills sectors are superior to the US, since public schooling and the trend towards telling kids that college is the only way to a good life have pushed people away from tech fields, leaving employers with the task of trying to train 20+ yr-olds with a lot of bad habits and no skills at all how to manage the emerging technologies the US has pioneered. The employee base for US manufacturing should have been doing marketing, CAD drafting programs, learning CNC machine operations, chemical plant operations, and basic operations across a product cycle starting in their early teens, not wasting time doing whatever it is they do in HS and college. Europe, Japan, and South Korea have much of the trade skills worked out in their schooling models, whereas it's a foreign concept in the US nowadays. There are some States that are better than others with their tech programs, but for the most part, we really suck at vocational training. As a manufacturer myself, I'm constantly faced with the dilemma of keeping some of my products in the US, vs overseas because nobody wants to do the work. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: Notice how Bloomberg selected manufacturing instead of GDP. The article is designed to get people to ignore the following metrics: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-gdp.png?s=wgdpus&v=201907011342V20190821 https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-HU221_GDPC1_MG_20191029122648.png https://mgmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/US-GDP-1980-2020-2.png The employee base for US manufacturing should have been doing marketing, CAD drafting programs, learning CNC machine operations, chemical plant operations, and basic operations across a product cycle starting in their early teens, not wasting time doing whatever it is they do in HS and college. Europe, Japan, and South Korea have much of the trade skills worked out in their schooling models, whereas it's a foreign concept in the US nowadays. There are some States that are better than others with their tech programs, but for the most part, we really suck at vocational training. As a manufacturer myself, I'm constantly faced with the dilemma of keeping some of my products in the US, vs overseas because nobody wants to do the work. Who or what is at fault for a manufacturing pullback, or a reduction in manufacturing jobs, or that by having some impact on domestic manufacturing we win the larger trade war with China et al isn't worth it, I'm not arguing any of that. Only that a loss of manufacturing jobs in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania now, will appear like some kind of pump and dump to a lot of mixed principle voters. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:48:28 PM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There was a good article about this in fleet owner magazine last month or two months ago. Let's take large fleets, particularly trucking and some contracting. Trucking companies were doing a 3 to 3.5 year turn on trucks. Meaning by the time the trucks were received, they'd be on the road 3 to 3.5 years before turned in. This turn is going to now 4.5 years to 5.5 years. Basically they're planning to get longer life out of the trucks because the repairs are going down in cost to make keeping units longer, worth it. As well, they're getting more expensive. So it's worth the longer lease. This is the trucking / construction and ag equipment markets. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:50:18 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Absolutely. That doesn't change that there currently seems to be a pull back happening. That's no indictment of policy, things go up and things go down. On a whole manufacturing is far better off than it was in 2015. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:50:44 PM EST
[#46]
Maybe if we weren't collecting record tax revenues ($3.6 trillion) and spending even more ($4.7 trillion), we'd have some left over to spend on stuff that matters.
Enjoy the ride while it lasts lmao |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:52:01 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Notice how Bloomberg selected manufacturing instead of GDP. The article is designed to get people to ignore the following metrics: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-gdp.png?s=wgdpus&v=201907011342V20190821 https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-HU221_GDPC1_MG_20191029122648.png https://mgmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/US-GDP-1980-2020-2.png |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:52:39 PM EST
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That's because the story is about manufacturing, genius. . That sector has been oddly underperforming the rest of the toasty economy all year. Manufacturing tends to be a more...sane? industry that's less effected by hype & bubbles, and was one of the first to do very well under the initial portion of Trump's tenure, so to see it decline steadily (if slowly) while the rest of the economy keeps running like genius-has-brain-will-travel Wylie E Coyote in addition to bonds inverting...Yeah, it's kinda worth mentioning, unless you're investing in an ostrich ranch or being paid to spin for Trump's re-election campaign. |
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:53:27 PM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Don't forget his socialist memes. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: ^^ How the hell is this guy still here? The dude literally posts nothing on this forum besides NT bullshit and even injects NT bullshit into non-Trump discussions. 
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Posted: 10/30/2019 12:56:23 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Your markets are pretty trade/tariff sensitive, construction and mining are the big ones. I'm surprised by the military truck thing though...Oshkosh getting to the end of MATVs or whatever the current contract is? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Absolutely. That doesn't change that there currently seems to be a pull back happening. That's no indictment of policy, things go up and things go down. On a whole manufacturing is far better off than it was in 2015. |
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