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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Trump can always blame Ukraine on Biden. He can throw up his hands and say we can't throw good money after bad, talk up what a huge failure Biden was, and move on. But if his braggadocio about ending the conflict were to be held to his word, he would be forced to massively ramp up aid to Ukraine in order to force Putin to negotiate. Putin has the upper hand, and it's not close. Putin will not accept less than the four annexed oblasts. Those are written into Russia's constitution, and it would be treason for him to not push on to to complete that much of the conquest. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Trump has a mandate to avoid war, so imo threats of escalation from Trump will be seen purely as a bluff by FVP and easily called. On the flip side, I don't think Trump wants as his legacy "total collapse of Ukraine" because he totally hung them out to dry. The combination of Trump's election rhetoric on Ukraine (which I think a large portion was to cater to his base) plus the democrats shitsandwich handling of the war the past 3 years has put Trump in a weak negotiating position. The only wildcard, is if Putin is satisfied (for now) with the land he took in Ukraine, but his original goals have unequivocally not been met. Trump can always blame Ukraine on Biden. He can throw up his hands and say we can't throw good money after bad, talk up what a huge failure Biden was, and move on. But if his braggadocio about ending the conflict were to be held to his word, he would be forced to massively ramp up aid to Ukraine in order to force Putin to negotiate. Putin has the upper hand, and it's not close. Putin will not accept less than the four annexed oblasts. Those are written into Russia's constitution, and it would be treason for him to not push on to to complete that much of the conquest. I think it's pretty likely that Trump will just accept Putin's maximalist demands as reasonable. |
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Field grade officer in the Ukebro Army
Globalist shill |
Originally Posted By lorazepam: Might be fake, might not.
View Quote All the vids have them masked up. Russian fake. |
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What have the Romans ever done for us?
TN, USA
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Originally Posted By ServusVeritatis: All the vids have them masked up. Russian fake. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ServusVeritatis: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Might be fake, might not.
All the vids have them masked up. Russian fake. Yeah. Look at the rest of the page. Ukraine = nazis. Fighting for Christianity. Sad part is I know some folks who see that then get all fired up as it was on the internet. |
Panem et Circenses
I have also learned from experience that the greater part of our happiness or misery depends upon our dispositions, and not upon our circumstances. |
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Are we assuming that Trump will keep the same ROE for Ukraine? "Do not touch anything that will actually harm Russia"...Because Trump doesn't want to negatively affect Russian oil exports? I guess it's possible if Trump is a fucking coward afraid of Putin and/or corrupted by Russian $$$ like Xiden. Is this the assumption we are operating under now? View Quote Trump plays for image, and his image is mud if there's an oil shock causing a 20-40% hike in crude prices. I have no idea what the actual impact of cutting 2/3 of Russia's western oil exports would look like. But of course, Trump is unpredictable, which is both a strength and a weakness. It's an improvement, anyway. |
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Freezing the war on current lines and continuing to receive military aid from the West is probably Ukraine's best near to medium term outcome at this point. Realistically, they don't have the capabilities to take back much occupied territory, and NATO membership is not happening any time soon (this was the case in 2022 and is especially the case now). We saw how difficult getting Sweden and Finland in was, and Ukraine under the current circumstances would be a different beast. Orban could essentially delay the process indefinitely.
My main concern lies in how this is actually achieved, especially considering who is in the upcoming administration. I can easily foresee Putin "negotiating" by advocating for his maximalist demands, Trump viewing them as reasonable, and then viewing Ukraine as being the unreasonable party for not accepting them. I also highly question whether Trump is actually committed to sending Ukraine more aid if Russia refuses to negotiate. I can also see Trump not wanting to look weak or potentially getting offended by Putin and then surging support (this is, after all, the same man who got pissed off at Assad and proposed killing him, only to get reigned in by members of his administration). |
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Field grade officer in the Ukebro Army
Globalist shill |
Originally Posted By ServusVeritatis: All the vids have them masked up. Russian fake. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ServusVeritatis: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Might be fake, might not.
All the vids have them masked up. Russian fake. Now why would an account named 'Orthodox Canonist' promote Russian propaganda? |
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Now why would an account named 'Orthodox Canonist' promote Russian propaganda? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By ServusVeritatis: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Might be fake, might not.
All the vids have them masked up. Russian fake. Now why would an account named 'Orthodox Canonist' promote Russian propaganda? Russians bought campaign swag and they’re using it. Well, Trump, as expected, won. Now let's see how he will change his tune in mid-air. And he will, definitely. These are the rules of the game. Because elections are elections, and the cast-iron ass of reality is cast-iron. Let me remind you that Trump promised to stop the war within 24 hours and lift sanctions against Russia if he wins. But of course, somewhere very deep inside my soul as a callous realist, I really want to believe that things will get a little easier for us with his arrival. Well, or at least not get worse.) https://t.me/fighter_bomber/18667 |
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“If by chance you were to ask me which ornaments I would desire above all others in my house, I would reply, without much pause for reflection, arms and books.”
Baldassare Castiglione https://t.me/arfcom_ukebros |
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Faces covered, VERY generic uniforms with generic non-unit specific but recognizable patch, M16 used, berm covering the horizon to prevent geo-location... I'm leaning towards Russian propaganda op. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Faces covered, VERY generic uniforms with generic non-unit specific but recognizable patch, M16 used, berm covering the horizon to prevent geo-location... I'm leaning towards Russian propaganda op. Don't worry, that's never stopped someone from sharing it as truth before. Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Kherson is the biggest hurdle here. To militarily take it, he has to cross the Dnipro. One of the biggest early successes was the bridge not being blown, giving Russia a quick way to get inside the city. Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: With Norks supporting Russia, it would make sense for Poland to deploy to guard Ukraine's border with Belarus, freeing up some AFU troops to go east. That's something I brought up a year and a half ago. A peacekeeping force, if you will. Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Tom Cotton would actually be a good move. That's why I wouldn't expect Trump to do that. Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: I will bet you a shiny new quarter that Trump ends up spending more money in Eastern Europe than daddy warbucks did. Furthermore, I will include that all defense spending will probably double. T Dawg likes spending money... Did he not send you a check too? Entirely probable and likely. The MIC was evil from 2020-2024. Now it's back to being in the good graces of people. Originally Posted By WoodHeat: That's ridiculous/disappointing/infuriating/... Rewarding Russia for their invasion. Let's hope that Trump's "advisors" aren't necessarily speaking for him. That's a sucker's deal. That depends. If Ukraine secures Nato membership when the war is over with the lines more or less frozen where they are I'd count it as a win. Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Trump has a mandate to avoid war, so imo threats of escalation from Trump will be seen purely as a bluff by FVP and easily called. On the flip side, I don't think Trump wants as his legacy "total collapse of Ukraine" because he totally hung them out to dry. The combination of Trump's election rhetoric on Ukraine (which I think a large portion was to cater to his base) plus the democrats shitsandwich handling of the war the past 3 years has put Trump in a weak negotiating position. The only wildcard, is if Putin is satisfied (for now) with the land he took in Ukraine, but his original goals have unequivocally not been met. Despite the pro-Russian commentators crooning about a Trump win I think your first point is correct. Trump rightly called Biden out for his disastrous Afghan debacle. What would Trump look like if his first year in office saw his own Afghan debacle? Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Trump can always blame Ukraine on Biden. He can throw up his hands and say we can't throw good money after bad, talk up what a huge failure Biden was, and move on. But if his braggadocio about ending the conflict were to be held to his word, he would be forced to massively ramp up aid to Ukraine in order to force Putin to negotiate. Putin has the upper hand, and it's not close. Putin will not accept less than the four annexed oblasts. Those are written into Russia's constitution, and it would be treason for him to not push on to to complete that much of the conquest. The war started with the demands of Ukraine's complete capitulation and now is down to 4 oblasts. Subject to change. Originally Posted By CMOS: Agreed. Poland and Ukraine are going to be the new European Superpowers over the next 10+ years, and we damn sure need to ally them. CMOS Ukraine is simply a poland from the early 90s. Once they become more westernized the economy will take off. Originally Posted By borderpatrol: Forsaking our allies is a fool's errand when Russia is on the march. Our European partners increasing their contribution is a good thing, threatening to abandon them is not. Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are watching closely because they are one info op away from being the next "Deep state playground" Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Freezing the lines now may be the most effective position for Ukraine. I agree. 83% of Ukraine is beyond Russia control. They still have port access and the famed "novorossiya" trumped by some of the pro-Russian crowd never materialized. Now force Ukraine into Nato so Europe has to do their part |
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connoisseur of fine Soviet and European armored vehicles since 2007.
https://t.me/arfcom_ukebros Milei/Zelenskyy 2024 Thank you Subpar for the membership! |
I don't have any beliefs that the Trump administration will support Ukraine at the level it needs. I am hesitant to write him off completely though. Obama made a few campaign promises that he backpeddeled on shortly after receiving his first post-election classified briefing. Hopefully he steps up and helps the Ukrainian people win the liberty they want and deserve.
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Originally Posted By nomansland: I post this and a headline pops up on my phone from Ukraine Latest podcast that Whitehouse is going to try to send $6 billion in aid before end of year - to spend it all before Trump gets in office so he can't stop it. That is probably the best thing they could do at this point but it might be logistically difficult to impliment in an effective manner. View Quote If you read this thread you would know by now that Ukraine has only received 10% of the military aid the US has authorized this year. That $6 billion Biden will authorize but will not make it to Ukraine before Trump gets into office. |
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A lot like GD. Obsessed with the latest shiny weapon but never budgets enough for the ammo... jwnc 5/9/2024
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Videos. |
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„From a place you will not hear, comes a sound you will not see.“
Thanks for the membership @ Toaster |
Sweden rejects Baltic Sea wind farms, citing defence concerns By Reuters November 4, 2024
STOCKHOLM, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Sweden has rejected applications to build 13 offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea due to defence concerns, while giving the go-ahead to one on its west coast, the government said on Monday. Defence Minister Pal Jonson told a press conference that building wind farms in the Baltic Sea would pose defence risks, not least by making it harder to detect and shoot down missiles using Sweden's Patriot batteries in case of a conflict. View Quote Attached File |
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„From a place you will not hear, comes a sound you will not see.“
Thanks for the membership @ Toaster |
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A lot like GD. Obsessed with the latest shiny weapon but never budgets enough for the ammo... jwnc 5/9/2024
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Originally Posted By Tiberius: What if they fight on anyway? And start doing the things that they would be doing if we didn’t have the leverage to make them stop? View Quote If trump stops the money and weapons? As soon as our help runs out the Ukraine military will be destroyed and Russia will burn, rape and loot where they want. Then they will install their own government to rule the country. |
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SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS
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SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS
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Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Freezing the war on current lines and continuing to receive military aid from the West is probably Ukraine's best near to medium term outcome at this point. Realistically, they don't have the capabilities to take back much occupied territory, and NATO membership is not happening any time soon (this was the case in 2022 and is especially the case now). We saw how difficult getting Sweden and Finland in was, and Ukraine under the current circumstances would be a different beast. Orban could essentially delay the process indefinitely. My main concern lies in how this is actually achieved, especially considering who is in the upcoming administration. I can easily foresee Putin "negotiating" by advocating for his maximalist demands, Trump viewing them as reasonable, and then viewing Ukraine as being the unreasonable party for not accepting them. I also highly question whether Trump is actually committed to sending Ukraine more aid if Russia refuses to negotiate. I can also see Trump not wanting to look weak or potentially getting offended by Putin and then surging support (this is, after all, the same man who got pissed off at Assad and proposed killing him, only to get reigned in by members of his administration). View Quote Trump has said that we are wasting billions of dollars because Zelensky refuses to accept a deal. And that any deal, even the worst deal, would be better than what is happening now. He has made his feelings on crystal clear. There isn't any reason to believe that voting for trump would get a different result. |
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SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS
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Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
Videos. View Quote Very smart. This thing doesn't have to be prolific all over the battle front. It just needs to be available for use against a Ukrainian position that can't be toppled because they have good active anti-drone electronics. |
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SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday |
Scenes of the wreckage of an American drone that was shot down while carrying out hostilities in the airspace of Al-Jawf Governorate
#The news https://t.me/YNmedia/1804 |
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“If by chance you were to ask me which ornaments I would desire above all others in my house, I would reply, without much pause for reflection, arms and books.”
Baldassare Castiglione https://t.me/arfcom_ukebros |
Originally Posted By stone-age: Trump has said that we are wasting billions of dollars because Zelensky refuses to accept a deal. And that any deal, even the worst deal, would be better than what is happening now. He has made his feelings on crystal clear. There isn't any reason to believe that voting for trump would get a different result. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Freezing the war on current lines and continuing to receive military aid from the West is probably Ukraine's best near to medium term outcome at this point. Realistically, they don't have the capabilities to take back much occupied territory, and NATO membership is not happening any time soon (this was the case in 2022 and is especially the case now). We saw how difficult getting Sweden and Finland in was, and Ukraine under the current circumstances would be a different beast. Orban could essentially delay the process indefinitely. My main concern lies in how this is actually achieved, especially considering who is in the upcoming administration. I can easily foresee Putin "negotiating" by advocating for his maximalist demands, Trump viewing them as reasonable, and then viewing Ukraine as being the unreasonable party for not accepting them. I also highly question whether Trump is actually committed to sending Ukraine more aid if Russia refuses to negotiate. I can also see Trump not wanting to look weak or potentially getting offended by Putin and then surging support (this is, after all, the same man who got pissed off at Assad and proposed killing him, only to get reigned in by members of his administration). Trump has said that we are wasting billions of dollars because Zelensky refuses to accept a deal. And that any deal, even the worst deal, would be better than what is happening now. He has made his feelings on crystal clear. There isn't any reason to believe that voting for trump would get a different result. You're most likely correct. |
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Field grade officer in the Ukebro Army
Globalist shill |
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