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Posted: 9/1/2024 11:27:29 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: So over the past couple of weeks, which side has captured more ground? Obviously the Russian offensive is on the verge of seizing some significantly important hubs. As of today, Ukraine has not acquired additional territory for some time but some attribute that to wanting to solidify previous gains, although Russia has recovered 2 towns in the last couple days. https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2024 
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Posted: 9/1/2024 11:30:20 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Thing is, onesey-twosie quantities don't mean anything in the war, it's a matter of scale. And, the rooskies don't have sufficient capacity to make them at scale, particularly when getting certain electronic parts is problematic. Also, from what I can tell, Ukraine is a somewhat rugged area with a lot of trees along with some areas that have undulating terrain. That means that a fiber-optic drone is going to be dragging that line across some unforgiving terrain vs a direct LOS helo-launched missile. There's always tradeoffs in any kind of aircraft design. It's not clear to me this is a good one. I’ll leave that to Daemon734 and others more knowledgeable on the subject than I to address |
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Posted: 9/1/2024 11:41:44 PM EDT
[#3]
So how much will our next payment be to Ukraine I’m sure Zelenskyy will have the hat out in another 6 months to a year , it’s getting tiresome this war needs to stop .
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Posted: 9/1/2024 11:56:41 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cranberry1: So how much will our next payment be to Ukraine I’m sure Zelenskyy will have the hat out in another 6 months to a year , it’s getting tiresome this war needs to stop . The war could have been stopped in 2022 if everybody hadn't been so cautious and hesitant to send any military aid. No Bradleys were delivered until 2023, AFTER the Surovikin line was built. AFU has been getting GREAT results with Brads. That's just one piece. Getting 200K Russians out of Ukraine in 2022 was doable, given enough aid. Getting 700K out from well-defended lines in 2023-2024 is not doable without massive air support. Bottom line, if you want the war over, you want to maximize aid to Ukraine - as much as possible, as fast as possible. Unless you want the war to end with Russian victory, which is also an option. It's bad for America in geopolitical situations all over the world going forward, but it is an option. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:04:40 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: That is an example of a strawman. Nobody is saying Putin is hanging on by a thread. Plenty of people hope for some internal Russian collapse, but nobody can see that they're anywhere close to that. You can probably find some troll somewhere who might throw such a baseless claim out, but an exception does not diminish the rule. I haven't been back to look in over a year, but I would guess that folks can still read the old big thread, where half the people in this thread were doing exactly that over two years ago. First he was dying of cancer, then there was a coup brewing, then Prigozhin was going to save the day. Now folks claim this offensive is putting pressure on him, but if we say it isn't going anywhere, you cry strawman. You can't have it both ways, the offensive is either going to get Putin run off or it isn't. If it isn't, then stop talking about the internal pressure and "bad looks" it's causing, because it's fairly obvious that very few Russians agree with you. |
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MT, USA
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:08:34 AM EDT
[#6]
Ukraine lost that war when it began. They should have never listened to the idiots in the U.S. and British governments. We gave them bad advice and oversold our ability to help.
We can keep sending equipment and money to Ukraine but it will never enable them to win, they are simply outnumbered and out gunned. Their only chance of winning would have been an unconventional war that moved in to Russian territory. As a conventional war, there is zero chance of them "winning", the only viable option is for them to negotiate a peace treaty that they can live with. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:14:04 AM EDT
[#7]
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:17:10 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cranberry1: So how much will our next payment be to Ukraine I'm sure Zelenskyy will have the hat out in another 6 months to a year , it's getting tiresome this war needs to stop . 
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:21:42 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: A lot of you guys already know this but for others who haven’t had time to keep up on drones in Kursk news https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/09/01/ukraine-war-how-and-why-russia-is-using-almost-indetectable-drones https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1288-3310627.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1287-3310628.jpg Seems to me that would greatly reduce their useable range. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:24:24 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: The war could have been stopped in 2022 if everybody hadn't been so cautious and hesitant to send any military aid. No Bradleys were delivered until 2023, AFTER the Surovikin line was built. AFU has been getting GREAT results with Brads. That's just one piece. Getting 200K Russians out of Ukraine in 2022 was doable, given enough aid. Getting 700K out from well-defended lines in 2023-2024 is not doable without massive air support. Bottom line, if you want the war over, you want to maximize aid to Ukraine - as much as possible, as fast as possible. Unless you want the war to end with Russian victory, which is also an option. It's bad for America in geopolitical situations all over the world going forward, but it is an option. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:44:33 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MontMac: Ukraine lost that war when it began. They should have never listened to the idiots in the U.S. and British governments. We gave them bad advice and oversold our ability to help. We can keep sending equipment and money to Ukraine but it will never enable them to win, they are simply outnumbered and out gunned. Their only chance of winning would have been an unconventional war that moved in to Russian territory. As a conventional war, there is zero chance of them "winning", the only viable option is for them to negotiate a peace treaty that they can live with. Nonsense. If we chose to do so, we could equip Ukraine enough to kick the Russians completely out of all of Ukraine and then some. We aren't doing that and haven't done that because of profoundly weak squatters in the WH. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:54:04 AM EDT
[Last Edit: xd341]
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Nonsense. If we chose to do so, we could equip Ukraine enough to kick the Russians completely out of all of Ukraine and then some. We aren't doing that and haven't done that because of profoundly weak squatters in the WH. They lack the logistical infrastructure to even adopt all the equipment that makes our doctrine viable, at least in any reasonable time frame |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:14:40 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cranberry1: So how much will our next payment be to Ukraine I’m sure Zelenskyy will have the hat out in another 6 months to a year , it’s getting tiresome this war needs to stop . Our scrap equipment as it has been for the last two years |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:14:46 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Moondog: Amusing that the 3 day "special military operation" is getting close to 1000 days. They even declared victory on day 2. My personal favorite was the “collapse of the Kievan junta in the next 6 months, all the Navi dogs can hope for is a strip of land next to Poland”. Followed later by “Ukraine will be defeated by the fall of 2023”. The poster back tracked and said because hot dog man’s revolt happened it didn’t count anymore 
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:26:24 AM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:26:40 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gudabeg: Our scrap equipment as it has been for the last two years Patriots and 155 shells and himars launchers and brads and M1s we had to re-manufacture to the export standard aren't scrap equipment. Some stuff was old inventory we would have paid to dispose of, and that's great, but billions worth was good front line gear. Which I don't have a huge problem with if we train them and they use it wisely. But we need to be honest about the situation.. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:28:09 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: That's bullshit. Patriots and 155 shells and himars launchers and brads and M1s we had to re-manufacture to the export standard aren't scrap equipment. Some stuff was old inventory we would have paid to dispose of, and that's great, but billions worth was good front line gear. Which I don't have a huge problem with if we train them and they use it wisely. But we need to be honest about the situation.. +1 |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:53:52 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MontMac: Ukraine lost that war when it began. They should have never listened to the idiots in the U.S. and British governments. We gave them bad advice and oversold our ability to help. We can keep sending equipment and money to Ukraine but it will never enable them to win, they are simply outnumbered and out gunned. Their only chance of winning would have been an unconventional war that moved in to Russian territory. As a conventional war, there is zero chance of them "winning", the only viable option is for them to negotiate a peace treaty that they can live with. I guess it depends on your definition of winning. Of course Ukraine isn't strong enough to beat up Russia like Germany did. Consider though the selfish reasons the US might have to continue supporting Ukraine. For a small portion of our yearly defense spending, we get to watch the Russian army get chewed up and their economy damaged. We also get valuable wartime experience for a major power type war, which is different from our experience in Iraq/Afghanistan. Ukraine and Russia will grind each other down until eventually a ceasefire is signed, probably along current front lines. The US will not be worse off after this war. Russia is one of our main enemies and they are unlikely to be a threat for a while. I don't think Putin will be itching to take on a NATO country after his army got chewed up by a minor power. The US supported the Afghans when the Soviet Union invaded and it was one of the main reasons the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia screwed up by invading Ukraine so the US and our allies are making sure it is going to hurt as much as possible without provoking a direct conflict. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 4:01:15 AM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 9/2/2024 4:13:45 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: That's bullshit. Patriots and 155 shells and himars launchers and brads and M1s we had to re-manufacture to the export standard aren't scrap equipment. Some stuff was old inventory we would have paid to dispose of, and that's great, but billions worth was good front line gear. Which I don't have a huge problem with if we train them and they use it wisely. But we need to be honest about the situation.. He knows that, he's just downright lying at this point. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 7:31:02 AM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 9/2/2024 7:35:34 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote History |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 7:36:58 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: Ehh...I guess. 97.8% chance this ends with a negotiation at some point. Having a better position for those negotiations is a worthy cause, if he wants to make an argument that at least makes sense. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraines-gamble   
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Posted: 9/2/2024 8:47:09 AM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 9/2/2024 9:02:35 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MontMac: Ukraine lost that war when it began. They should have never listened to the idiots in the U.S. and British governments. We gave them bad advice and oversold our ability to help. We can keep sending equipment and money to Ukraine but it will never enable them to win, they are simply outnumbered and out gunned. Their only chance of winning would have been an unconventional war that moved in to Russian territory. As a conventional war, there is zero chance of them "winning", the only viable option is for them to negotiate a peace treaty that they can live with. Ukraine/Zelensky told the US to stay out of it a few time before it really got started. Maybe it was just for a show. |
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NE, USA
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Posted: 9/2/2024 10:14:20 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DouglasQuaid: I guess it depends on your definition of winning. Of course Ukraine isn't strong enough to beat up Russia like Germany did. Consider though the selfish reasons the US might have to continue supporting Ukraine. For a small portion of our yearly defense spending, we get to watch the Russian army get chewed up and their economy damaged. We also get valuable wartime experience for a major power type war, which is different from our experience in Iraq/Afghanistan. Ukraine and Russia will grind each other down until eventually a ceasefire is signed, probably along current front lines. The US will not be worse off after this war. Russia is one of our main enemies and they are unlikely to be a threat for a while. I don't think Putin will be itching to take on a NATO country after his army got chewed up by a minor power. The US supported the Afghans when the Soviet Union invaded and it was one of the main reasons the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia screwed up by invading Ukraine so the US and our allies are making sure it is going to hurt as much as possible without provoking a direct conflict. Russia's economy is fueled by energy production and foreign arms sales. The poor performance of Russian weapons systems will hurt their foreign sales for years (if they even have the ability/capacity). What country would choose to spend money on a Russian S400 system that can't even defend itself from 30 year old missiles and drones instead of a Patriot system. This has become a great testing laboratory for weapons systems, and our weapons utilizing technology from 30 years ago is defeating "state of the art" Russian equipment. Most of our defense companies are receiving foreign orders that will keep them busy for years. Oil and gas exports are/will be problematic going forward too. The longer this conflict continues, the deeper the hole get's for Russia. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 10:33:28 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryWow, was just saying that one of the goals could be to "Trump proof" the ukraine war. By scuttling negotiations a few months before the incoming Trump admin. Besides the "Make putin look bad" (PR/media victory) angle |
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USA
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Posted: 9/2/2024 10:40:27 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MontMac: Ukraine lost that war when it began. They should have never listened to the idiots in the U.S. and British governments. We gave them bad advice and oversold our ability to help. We can keep sending equipment and money to Ukraine but it will never enable them to win, they are simply outnumbered and out gunned. Their only chance of winning would have been an unconventional war that moved in to Russian territory. As a conventional war, there is zero chance of them "winning", the only viable option is for them to negotiate a peace treaty that they can live with. Как скажешь товарищ. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 11:51:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Missilegeek]
[#29]
Quote HistoryImagine being that school kid in Siberia and meeting the guy who is ensuring that your future is bleak. A future possibly more bleak than your ancestors; who are mostly known for their dying and suffering due to their horrible government. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:05:24 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Imagine being that school kid in Siberia and meeting the guy who is ensuring that your future is bleak. A future possibly more bleak than your ancestors; who are mostly known for their dying and suffering due to their horrible government. Yeah, I’m surprised vodka bottles weren’t being passed out during that pep talk |
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UKR
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:21:36 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MontMac: Ukraine lost that war when it began. They should have never listened to the idiots in the U.S. and British governments. We gave them bad advice and oversold our ability to help. We can keep sending equipment and money to Ukraine but it will never enable them to win, they are simply outnumbered and out gunned. Their only chance of winning would have been an unconventional war that moved in to Russian territory. As a conventional war, there is zero chance of them "winning", the only viable option is for them to negotiate a peace treaty that they can live with. I am John Smith of Warmwater Port, Texas Oblast, and I agree. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 12:32:57 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Yeah, I’m surprised vodka bottles weren’t being passed out during that pep talk Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Imagine being that school kid in Siberia and meeting the guy who is ensuring that your future is bleak. A future possibly more bleak than your ancestors; who are mostly known for their dying and suffering due to their horrible government. Yeah, I’m surprised vodka bottles weren’t being passed out during that pep talk It's good to get a reminder about how lucky we were to be born here, when we were. A Republic, if you can keep it! |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:03:45 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Nonsense. If we chose to do so, we could equip Ukraine enough to kick the Russians completely out of all of Ukraine and then some. We aren't doing that and haven't done that because of profoundly weak squatters in the WH. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By MontMac: Ukraine lost that war when it began. They should have never listened to the idiots in the U.S. and British governments. We gave them bad advice and oversold our ability to help. We can keep sending equipment and money to Ukraine but it will never enable them to win, they are simply outnumbered and out gunned. Their only chance of winning would have been an unconventional war that moved in to Russian territory. As a conventional war, there is zero chance of them "winning", the only viable option is for them to negotiate a peace treaty that they can live with. Nonsense. If we chose to do so, we could equip Ukraine enough to kick the Russians completely out of all of Ukraine and then some. We aren't doing that and haven't done that because of profoundly weak squatters in the WH. If you want to go down the route of the least effective way to employ US equipment. Sure. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:10:57 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Found this example on google, check the comments here from April 2022. Putin had cancer, parkinsons, and was going to be couped literally any day. https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/-ARCHIVED-THREAD-Putin-to-have-colon-cancer-surgery-will-be-incapacitated-for-a-while/5-2549315/?page=1 I don't know what thread you were reading, but I scanned through the thread and didn't find a smoking gun. Yes, there were some people who mentioned a coup d'etat due to him undergoing a serious surgery, but no one implied that he didn't have complete control of the country. |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:24:50 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: That's bullshit. Patriots and 155 shells and himars launchers and brads and M1s we had to re-manufacture to the export standard aren't scrap equipment. Some stuff was old inventory we would have paid to dispose of, and that's great, but billions worth was good front line gear. Which I don't have a huge problem with if we train them and they use it wisely. But we need to be honest about the situation.. This, some export monkey models. But much of the stuff is from our own frontline stores. There is a reason no more long range missiles. We dont have any left beyond whats the minimum supply. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 1:47:08 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: I don't know what thread you were reading, but I scanned through the thread and didn't find a smoking gun. Yes, there were some people who mentioned a coup d'etat due to him undergoing a serious surgery, but no one implied that he didn't have complete control of the country. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By 56xdx_Z: Found this example on google, check the comments here from April 2022. Putin had cancer, parkinsons, and was going to be couped literally any day. https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/-ARCHIVED-THREAD-Putin-to-have-colon-cancer-surgery-will-be-incapacitated-for-a-while/5-2549315/?page=1 I don't know what thread you were reading, but I scanned through the thread and didn't find a smoking gun. Yes, there were some people who mentioned a coup d'etat due to him undergoing a serious surgery, but no one implied that he didn't have complete control of the country. I definitely remember the sentiment he is talking about. There was a time period where a lot of people were saying and thinking "Putin has to cut a deal or give up, because he is losing and a lot of Russian Soldiers are dying, the Russian people won't put up with this, someone will overthrow him." If I recall correctly, this thinking was pretty prevalent in mid 2022 to early 2023. I don't remember if it was often discussed here, but it was in the media and social media for sure. These sentiments seemed to reach their crescendo with Prigozhin’s Wagner rebellion. My theory on that is that it is 50/50 that was a failed CIA Operation. The idea of a coup that overthrows Putin, is a pretty logical theory from a Western mindset. The problem is, that's a huge assumption when applied to the very different Russian mindset. The truth is, that it's very hard for Westerners to understand Russian culture, society, mindset and thinking. Their existence is way different than ours, and has been for a long time. I've read a fair bit of it, even the so called professional intelligence is often fundamentally wrong. Prior to the big Ukraine invasion, I remember frequently hearing from both professionals and amateurs that the Oligarchs really run Russia and have all the power. Putin is just a figure head with little or no power they said. He is a puppet of the Oligarchs they said. When that theory was tested, all the big bad Oligarchs who dared to speak or think differently ran away, went to prison, or threw themselves out of windows. It's ok to admit that we don't really know shit about these people. Just like we don't know shit about the middle east. Pretending we are puppet master of foreign societies has been nothing but giant hubris that has gotten the US in a lot of trouble. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 2:00:57 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: I definitely remember the sentiment he is talking about. There was a time period where a lot of people were saying and thinking "Putin has to cut a deal or give up, because he is losing and a lot of Russian Soldiers are dying, the Russian people won't put up with this, someone will overthrow him." If I recall correctly, this thinking was pretty prevalent in mid 2022 to early 2023. I don't remember if it was often discussed here, but it was in the media and social media for sure. These sentiments seemed to reach their crescendo with Prigozhin's Wagner rebellion. My theory on that is that it is 50/50 that was a failed CIA Operation. The idea of a coup that overthrows Putin, is a pretty logical theory from a Western mindset. The problem is, that's a huge assumption when applied to the very different Russian mindset. The truth is, that it's very hard for Westerners to understand Russian culture, society, mindset and thinking. Their existence is way different than ours, and has been for a long time. I've read a fair bit of it, even the so called professional intelligence is often fundamentally wrong. Prior to the big Ukraine invasion, I remember frequently hearing from both professionals and amateurs that the Oligarchs really run Russia and have all the power. Putin is just a figure head with little or no power they said. He is a puppet of the Oligarchs they said. When that theory was tested, all the big bad Oligarchs who dared to speak or think differently ran away, went to prison, or threw themselves out of windows. It's ok to admit that we don't really know shit about these people. Just like we don't know shit about the middle east. Pretending we are puppet master of foreign societies has been nothing but giant hubris that has gotten the US in a lot of trouble. That being said yes, we meddle more than anyone and it often causes enough trouble that the American people notice. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 2:05:51 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: I definitely remember the sentiment he is talking about. There was a time period where a lot of people were saying and thinking "Putin has to cut a deal or give up, because he is losing and a lot of Russian Soldiers are dying, the Russian people won't put up with this, someone will overthrow him." If I recall correctly, this thinking was pretty prevalent in mid 2022 to early 2023. I don't remember if it was often discussed here, but it was in the media and social media for sure. These sentiments seemed to reach their crescendo with Prigozhin's Wagner rebellion. My theory on that is that it is 50/50 that was a failed CIA Operation. The idea of a coup that overthrows Putin, is a pretty logical theory from a Western mindset. The problem is, that's a huge assumption when applied to the very different Russian mindset. The truth is, that it's very hard for Westerners to understand Russian culture, society, mindset and thinking. Their existence is way different than ours, and has been for a long time. I've read a fair bit of it, even the so called professional intelligence is often fundamentally wrong. Prior to the big Ukraine invasion, I remember frequently hearing from both professionals and amateurs that the Oligarchs really run Russia and have all the power. Putin is just a figure head with little or no power they said. He is a puppet of the Oligarchs they said. When that theory was tested, all the big bad Oligarchs who dared to speak or think differently ran away, went to prison, or threw themselves out of windows. It's ok to admit that we don't really know shit about these people. Just like we don't know shit about the middle east. Pretending we are puppet master of foreign societies has been nothing but giant hubris that has gotten the US in a lot of trouble. I don't disagree with anything you said; my response was specifically for that poster based on his implications and previous posting habits. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 2:23:11 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: I definitely remember the sentiment he is talking about. There was a time period where a lot of people were saying and thinking "Putin has to cut a deal or give up, because he is losing and a lot of Russian Soldiers are dying, the Russian people won't put up with this, someone will overthrow him." If I recall correctly, this thinking was pretty prevalent in mid 2022 to early 2023. I don't remember if it was often discussed here, but it was in the media and social media for sure. These sentiments seemed to reach their crescendo with Prigozhin's Wagner rebellion. My theory on that is that it is 50/50 that was a failed CIA Operation. The idea of a coup that overthrows Putin, is a pretty logical theory from a Western mindset. The problem is, that's a huge assumption when applied to the very different Russian mindset. The truth is, that it's very hard for Westerners to understand Russian culture, society, mindset and thinking. Their existence is way different than ours, and has been for a long time. I've read a fair bit of it, even the so called professional intelligence is often fundamentally wrong. Prior to the big Ukraine invasion, I remember frequently hearing from both professionals and amateurs that the Oligarchs really run Russia and have all the power. Putin is just a figure head with little or no power they said. He is a puppet of the Oligarchs they said. When that theory was tested, all the big bad Oligarchs who dared to speak or think differently ran away, went to prison, or threw themselves out of windows. It's ok to admit that we don't really know shit about these people. Just like we don't know shit about the middle east. Pretending we are puppet master of foreign societies has been nothing but giant hubris that has gotten the US in a lot of trouble. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 2:27:25 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: I don't disagree with anything you said; my response was specifically for that poster based on his implications and previous posting habits. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: I definitely remember the sentiment he is talking about. There was a time period where a lot of people were saying and thinking "Putin has to cut a deal or give up, because he is losing and a lot of Russian Soldiers are dying, the Russian people won't put up with this, someone will overthrow him." If I recall correctly, this thinking was pretty prevalent in mid 2022 to early 2023. I don't remember if it was often discussed here, but it was in the media and social media for sure. These sentiments seemed to reach their crescendo with Prigozhin's Wagner rebellion. My theory on that is that it is 50/50 that was a failed CIA Operation. The idea of a coup that overthrows Putin, is a pretty logical theory from a Western mindset. The problem is, that's a huge assumption when applied to the very different Russian mindset. The truth is, that it's very hard for Westerners to understand Russian culture, society, mindset and thinking. Their existence is way different than ours, and has been for a long time. I've read a fair bit of it, even the so called professional intelligence is often fundamentally wrong. Prior to the big Ukraine invasion, I remember frequently hearing from both professionals and amateurs that the Oligarchs really run Russia and have all the power. Putin is just a figure head with little or no power they said. He is a puppet of the Oligarchs they said. When that theory was tested, all the big bad Oligarchs who dared to speak or think differently ran away, went to prison, or threw themselves out of windows. It's ok to admit that we don't really know shit about these people. Just like we don't know shit about the middle east. Pretending we are puppet master of foreign societies has been nothing but giant hubris that has gotten the US in a lot of trouble. I don't disagree with anything you said; my response was specifically for that poster based on his implications and previous posting habits. I understand that, and my response was more just what popped into my head on the topic at hand and meant more as a general discussion piece. Because the logical question is what is the endgame? And the answers given so far leave a lot to be desired. It seems Ukraine is incapable of outright military victory, and it looks like Putin is going nowhere. That leaves us negotiating with a lying dicatator who has a propensity to invade his neighbors. Sometimes there are only bad options. I can't help but think that if we had people who were not clowns in charge of the Pentagon and in key positions in the WH, this could have gone a lot better than just half assed reacting to everything after it happens. But alas stolen elections have consequences. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 2:31:22 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FreefallRet: Putin is like Kim Jon UN, nobody is replacing him until he is dead. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FreefallRet: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: I definitely remember the sentiment he is talking about. There was a time period where a lot of people were saying and thinking "Putin has to cut a deal or give up, because he is losing and a lot of Russian Soldiers are dying, the Russian people won't put up with this, someone will overthrow him." If I recall correctly, this thinking was pretty prevalent in mid 2022 to early 2023. I don't remember if it was often discussed here, but it was in the media and social media for sure. These sentiments seemed to reach their crescendo with Prigozhin's Wagner rebellion. My theory on that is that it is 50/50 that was a failed CIA Operation. The idea of a coup that overthrows Putin, is a pretty logical theory from a Western mindset. The problem is, that's a huge assumption when applied to the very different Russian mindset. The truth is, that it's very hard for Westerners to understand Russian culture, society, mindset and thinking. Their existence is way different than ours, and has been for a long time. I've read a fair bit of it, even the so called professional intelligence is often fundamentally wrong. Prior to the big Ukraine invasion, I remember frequently hearing from both professionals and amateurs that the Oligarchs really run Russia and have all the power. Putin is just a figure head with little or no power they said. He is a puppet of the Oligarchs they said. When that theory was tested, all the big bad Oligarchs who dared to speak or think differently ran away, went to prison, or threw themselves out of windows. It's ok to admit that we don't really know shit about these people. Just like we don't know shit about the middle east. Pretending we are puppet master of foreign societies has been nothing but giant hubris that has gotten the US in a lot of trouble. Well like I said before, I know just enough about these people to know that I don't know shit. But based off of what we have seen, it looks like you are probably right. Making predictions about this is a quick way to make a fool of yourself. "Russia is never as strong as she appears, or weak as she seems" -old proverb |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 2:39:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 56xdx_Z]
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Prior to the big Ukraine invasion, I remember frequently hearing from both professionals and amateurs that the Oligarchs really run Russia and have all the power. Putin is just a figure head with little or no power they said. He is a puppet of the Oligarchs they said. When that theory was tested, all the big bad Oligarchs who dared to speak or think differently ran away, went to prison, or threw themselves out of windows. Putin seems to have dealt with the oligarchs like stories such as emperor Sung after the Han dynasty. They were allowed to keep their fortunes and retire or continue running business, but if they became the slightest problem for him, they would get made an example of individually. He remarked one time that they were just asked to keep their fortunes inside Russia. And that the ones who fled to london etc eventually got their wealth frozen under sanctions anyway  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 4:41:50 PM EDT
[#43]
Ukrainian media and Zelensky spar https://kyivindependent.com/undistracted-by-kursk-offensive-russia-cuts-deeper-toward-pokrovsk-in-donetsk-oblast/
      
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Posted: 9/2/2024 4:46:41 PM EDT
[#44]
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Posted: 9/2/2024 5:04:24 PM EDT
[#45]
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Posted: 9/2/2024 5:08:15 PM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 9/2/2024 5:08:19 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Ukrainian media and Zelensky spar https://kyivindependent.com/undistracted-by-kursk-offensive-russia-cuts-deeper-toward-pokrovsk-in-donetsk-oblast/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1409-3311719.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1410-3311720.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1411-3311721.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1412-3311722.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1413-3311723.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1414-3311724.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1415-3311725.jpg The fact that the enemy attack is somewhat successful does not delegitimize a separate successful counter-attack. Assuming that using the same units instead as a defensive reserve, would have worked, is foolish as well. You generally don't improve your position by playing defense all the time. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 5:25:36 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MontMac: Ukraine lost that war when it began. They should have never listened to the idiots in the U.S. and British governments. We gave them bad advice and oversold our ability to help. We can keep sending equipment and money to Ukraine but it will never enable them to win, they are simply outnumbered and out gunned. Their only chance of winning would have been an unconventional war that moved in to Russian territory. As a conventional war, there is zero chance of them "winning", the only viable option is for them to negotiate a peace treaty that they can live with. QFT |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 5:35:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Zhukov]
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: I understand that, and my response was more just what popped into my head on the topic at hand and meant more as a general discussion piece. Because the logical question is what is the endgame? And the answers given so far leave a lot to be desired. It seems Ukraine is incapable of outright military victory, and it looks like Putin is going nowhere. That leaves us negotiating with a lying dicatator who has a propensity to invade his neighbors. Sometimes there are only bad options. I can't help but think that if we had people who were not clowns in charge of the Pentagon and in key positions in the WH, this could have gone a lot better than just half assed reacting to everything after it happens. But alas stolen elections have consequences. As I've said many times before: the odds are certainly stacked deep against Ukraine, but it's not hopeless for them yet. Putin does have vulnerabilities, albeit small. The endgame is pretty self explanatory for both sides. |
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Posted: 9/2/2024 6:18:45 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Ass I've said many times before: the odds are certainly stacked deep against Ukraine, but it's not hopeless for them yet. Putin does have vulnerabilities, albeit small. The endgame is pretty self explanatory for both sides. 
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