So for the last few years. Not a day goes by where I don't have a phone call or 1 or more letters or post cards in the mail trying to buy some chunk of land that I own. It's a everyday thing, and for the last 6 months has been really bad, but it's been going on for a couple of years, started with like one a week and got to the point it was EVERY DAY.

On the radio in this area, there's been adds of the get rich quick and seminars. Telling people all kinds of things from flipping things to find me deals and make money. Adds for investors looking for people to find property for them and they will pay a cut. Plus there's thousand and thousands of flippers, looking to make a quick buck. I figured starting about 6 months ago it was getting really bad because investors and big money was looking for RE to buy as a place to park dollars. Based partly on the fact that about once a week I would get a call from what was clearly a call center trying to see if I was interested in selling anything (who has a call center, doing mass marketing to try and buy property, ANY PROPERTY). None of the people involved could make a offer or if they do it's so insanely low it's a joke. Like county assessed for $165,000 and they offer $5,200 lol... Like really... wow. They all want to have someone else call me back and make a offer. I find that odd.

So starting about 2 weeks AFTER the election. It ALL stopped. Not one letter, offer or phone call about buying anything. Hmmmm To me, that's odd. It's night and day. But the Re Agents still say the market is going strong, and looking at sales it seems to be. But HMMMM the constant offers have just stopped. I think the big money that was pushing to get dollars into RE has stopped. What do you guys think? Is this a sign of a coming change? Makes me a little nervous.

Something I noticed back in 08 right before things crashed. Some things just lost almost all value over night. Big sail boats (could buy a 100,000 boat for 5,000 and six months later it was 35,000), tools (bought a bunch of roto hammers, porta bands for $35 each, whole van load of tools for $250), some equipment (took about a 50% drop). So to me, I am watching to see if suddenly things start loosing value, because that's what I saw right before the last crash. Has anyone noticed anything odd like this anywhere in the market? I just have some bad feelings about 2021.

Chinese investors

Attached File

I'm worried about the Commercial Real Estate market. There's a lot of big office spaces just sitting vacant because people are working from home because of covid. How long before this companies get the idea that they don't need all that space? Maybe it's not 100% WFH, but they keep 20-30% of the current space and make it reservable for when you're needed to be onsite for whatever reason. That could lead to a lot of fallout in that market.

Yes there is a TON of them in the market and at all levels. One of them just bought a swamp (it's all under water right now, in the summer MAYBE 20% of it sorta dry, but county views it as all wetlands and is protected) and payed 152,000 for it. Another one bought the house next to mine payed almost 800,000 and then moved in someone that I think is a chinesse care taker for it. They are working on the house ALL THE TIME and never leave or go to work. So they are investing at all levels in the market from trash to high up. I think it's more than just them. Do you think they are the buyers that are still driving the market? Or the buyers that just dropped out of the market?

So true, already starting to see that. Tons of vacant space, and places walking on there leases, and don't plan on coming back.

I'm not tuned into the commercial market at all, but I see the same thing.  LOTS of empty commercial spaces.  I don't think the wuflu effect has even begun to make its way through the economy.  

The stock market and RE smell like a giant bubble to me.

Biden/Harris/AOC will extend eviction moratorium a month at a time until 2035 when they institute the Landholder Purge Night.

Also you will have to pay your property taxes in beanie babies but all the gun show supplies will dry up. I think Lin Wood will tweet about it very soon.

Just hold out until my refi is done that's all I ask...

You're also in WA

Same hear, and why I started this thread. Residential has just been on fire in my area and I am going WT???? This all offers and cold calls is the first sign I have noticed of things slowing... so I started this thread. lol I want to make money off this. I smell blood... but I don't want it to be my own.... I had a ton of friends that lost everything in 08. Maybe this thread will help some hear. Fingers crossed. BUT I don't have a clue what is going to happen. What they have done to the money supply and the health of everything has me worried about MORE than just the RE market... like the value of the dollar as well, and RE is a hedge for that.  SO hmmmmm.... I don't know what to do, or think... welcome to 2021.

We are always getting mail from the "Deer hunting property experts" offering to list our land.  

Wankers.

I don't think the first shoe has dropped, much less the second.  I don't care, neither buying nor selling RE.  But, like you, the entire economy seems bizarre to me right now.

This is going to crash the entire economy.

For residential real estate, I think it's probably uncertainty more than anything else.

I'm selling my place right now and one thing that's super noticable is an increase in bottom-feeder "investors" that
clearly are looking for desperate sellers (in a seller's market.)

Had a couple $290K offers on my place that's going for over $400K from those types, and the place is already
priced under market. It's under contract now and there's a backup offer, but one of the people that was most
interested backed away just after the election, and I'm sure it was because they didn't know what their financial
situation would be.

Related to that, the ratio of cash buyers to mortage buyers seems to have changed. A couple months ago it mostly
was cash, now nearly everyone but those bottom feeder investors is mortgage.

Feels toppy to me, imo.

I have a truck driving friend, he normally delivers RCP (reinforced concrete pipe, that small to big concrete pipe that they do sewers and storm sewers out of.).   All developments of course use a ton fo this when developing, before streets and such.  I talked to him first time in months and he said not only are all the crane companies going bust because all the big building work dried up, but he hasn't delivered any concrete pipe in MONTHS.  it's not the weather, they deliver in snowstorms (BTDT).  

I said wut?  i get the big buildings, but the housing market is insane where he lives, just crazy (or has been) and yet nobody is building any new developments.   That means they are only building out what they already have in the ground.  What do the big developers know?

I find it very interesting.

Where in WA?

That happened six months ago.

Everyone in that position is waiting for the lease to be up.

Attached File

According to Realtors, the market is ALWAYS strong.  They can't be trusted for unbiased market information.

Yes I am in the hold and rent mode and NOT buying anything, unless it's something that I just can't resist, but I haven't bought anything since about 09. I didn't feel that things went right in the last "crash" to me it never really reset the way it should have, it's like the can got kicked down the rd. To me everything just seems so off right now that it makes me nervous. This not being able to event anyone for any reason doesn't give me the warm fuzzies about having a bunch of rentals.... kinda scary times.

In the china spy thread, I mentioned about going on a date with a young woman that was over hear for "school" but she clearly wasn't hear for school and I pressed her on it and she said she was hear buying RE. And after a while she opened up a little and started saying things that made me wonder. Like she said, "You can't tell anyone you own land or rent places, you have to hide that, because when things change. They will kill all the property owners and land lords" And that she has a whole web of different companies in different states she uses to hide ownership.  hmmm not the normal acts or thoughts of a young woman...

Around here the agents are selling like crazy at unbelievable pruces, but moving the proceeds into 1031 exchanges.  The markets have been padded for about a year but we're about 18 months past what should have been a correction. Interests rates have been below 3% on 30 year mortgages for way too long. I'll bet, that by the end of Q1 we'll see a significant increase in interest rafes, bank stuck holding all that paper and RE prices plummet by Summer, bottoming out mid 2022, and as the 3.5 and 7 year ARMs begin to shift, foreclosures back on the rise again.  

The time to sell is quickly coming to an end. The time to refinance is closing fast and were about to see a buyers market much like 2009/10.

Is her name Fang Fang?  If yes, your phone is tapped by the fibbies, just sayin'.  But don't get nervous.  They're your friends.

Between the eviction moratoriums and Biden's proposal to end 1031 exchanges there is more risk with potentially less tax deferred benefits in the not so distant future for the real estate investor. They may want to see how the Georgia run offs turn out before investing in more properties.

If rates go up, the stock market will tank.  If Biden gets the Senate taxes will soar, and the stock market will tank.  The future is not bright.

Many Columbus suburbs try to cherry pick high paying office jobs from Columbus proper or other Columbus suburbs. It’s pretty funny actually, they try to out do each other with tax incentives and the like. We had plenty of empty office  holdings before all this COVID crap. It’s even worse now.  How about some high paying manufacturing jobs ?  Pffft.

Attached File

Western Wa.

Same here bro..they're just fianlizing pay off with current mortgage lender.

wrong.gif

Have you not paid any attention to Fed meetings over the past year?

They've been adamant that interest rates will remain at or near zero through at least 2022.

Also in case you missed it, Miss Easy Money (Janet Yellen) will be assuming the role of Fed Chief in a few more weeks.

so will i finally be able to afford to buy a house in 2021?

Office Depot is hurting badly.

A 500,000 sq ft warehouse/distribution building of theirs was just recently vacated here in GA.

A couple weeks ago I finally got curious enough to answer one of the emails asking me if I want to sell my house.

I replied, 'make me an offer'. Well, the comps in my area are in the $190k to $220k range. Some gal replied that they are buying homes comparable to mine for~$90k.

I replied back, 'step away from the crack pipe!'. I heard nothing further from her.

I still get a call or 2 every day.

I just have my fingers crossed that it holds out long enough that I don't end up upside down in my new construction house before I'm even able to move in.

Would take a full on crash or a helluva dip in the market though. I should have 100k+ in equity the day that we move in.

group buy?

Thank God we were able to close our refi on 12/23.
Went from 5.00% to 2.25% and saved $478/mo.

I also find that kinda thing interesting. Thanks for sharing it. Thanks to everyone sharing things.

I agree to a point, in the short term.  But if inflation cranks up, the fed will have no choice but to raise rates, and do it with gusto, to head off a run.  Also, mortgage interest could begin to climb even if the fed sits on their hands.  Banks know how to calculate risk, too.

I used to get daily offers, but they stopped after awhile. Perhaps they realized they were wasting their time?

Someone in the dow 25000 thread informed me that purchase price has nothing to do with investing so...

Just noise.   Scammers trolling for a desperate seller.  They pulled the plug for the year.   Next year, slightly different scam.

Real buyers are still around.

A lot of truth to this. Vancouver(BC), Seattle, Tacoma and large chunks of land are getting gobbled up.



Warehouses are going up at a significant rate here in WA.

Nationally the market is strong overall, but some market areas are much hotter than others. Where I live in Florida, Homes and lots can't get listed fast enough. There's gong to be less people interested in moving to washington now that the federal government, led by Biden, won't do anything to stop Washington state from going completely down the toilet.

What was their logic? expected rate of return in percent rather than dollar amount? I wouldn't say the two are completely decoupled regardless, just trying to understand where they're coming from.

Those are FEMA camps, citizen.

It was NOT Fang Fang.. lol she wasn't as cute. But I don't think she's alone my hunch is there is, or was, of may still be thousands of "students" hear working for china.

Only one house to rent and building as fast as possible here.

It's not just companies.  FedGov leases the building I work in and it's up for renewal this year.  We were sent a questionnaire asking if we would be willing to share a cube, where employees would work from home and come into the office on alternate days.  The cube wouldn't even have a desktop, we'd just log onto the network using a GFE laptop that we'd lug around since all of our development tools reside on the servers.

We diversified away from commercial RE in my business, specifically because we predicted the long term outlook to be poor. This was 5 years ago. We still have some major customers paying mega bucks to have the million square foot class A office buildings sit somewhat vacant. You won't see them completely go away but you will see a drop in leased sqft over the next few years.

I still get a constant flow of letters trying to buy my vacant land.

So will the RE market crash cause deflation as opposed to inflation?