User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 5:21:06 PM EDT
[#1]
 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 5:33:20 PM EDT
[#2]
Can't say from what source, but we're seeing 5-7 ft surge, not 3-5 ft, for the above map.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 5:45:31 PM EDT
[#3]
The current official track and projected strength are beginning to fall in line exactly with what @TXBBQGuy predicted last night.
Quoted: Its going to go further north and be stronger than the modeling shows Quoted: Its consistently outperformed all of the modeling and has hugged the right side of the forecast. It just got back to a Cat3 and is strengthening again vs the weakening they've called for. The gulf is in the mid 80s just like the water it just came through and wind shear is low (which hasn't seemed to matter anyway. The high pressure may be the only saving grace for further up the coast, but I'm expecting a hard north turn near or shortly after landfall |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 6:16:10 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Can't say from what source, but we're seeing 5-7 ft surge, not 3-5 ft, for the above map. It's on the NHC inundation map now. There's some small spots of 6+ ft over normal just east of point comfort. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/212133.shtml?inundation#contents |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 6:16:51 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Its going to go further north and be stronger than the modeling shows Don’t you put that voodoo on me Ricky! |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 6:19:05 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: it's just about to hit water again 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 Location: 21.2°N 89.2°W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 989 mb Max sustained: 65 mph https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204723.png That water is warm, it will get another boost of energy.  Attached File |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 6:20:12 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The current official track and projected strength are beginning to fall in line exactly with what @TXBBQGuy predicted last night. Quote HistoryQuoted: The current official track and projected strength are beginning to fall in line exactly with what @TXBBQGuy predicted last night. Quoted: Its going to go further north and be stronger than the modeling shows Quoted: Its consistently outperformed all of the modeling and has hugged the right side of the forecast. It just got back to a Cat3 and is strengthening again vs the weakening they've called for. The gulf is in the mid 80s just like the water it just came through and wind shear is low (which hasn't seemed to matter anyway. The high pressure may be the only saving grace for further up the coast, but I'm expecting a hard north turn near or shortly after landfall Yup, he called it. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 6:24:42 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'll be gathering cattle out of the marsh first thing in the morning, I just can't put it off any longer. Roughly 3k acres, then we have to drive them a few miles and across a bridge, while dodging the rice fields. And everyone is doing the same thing, so all the cowboys are busy, so I'll be using a couple of good hands and some kids. Wish me luck!  User name  Enjoy the cattle drive. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 6:27:13 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The current official track and projected strength are beginning to fall in line exactly with what @TXBBQGuy predicted last night. Quote HistoryQuoted: The current official track and projected strength are beginning to fall in line exactly with what @TXBBQGuy predicted last night. Quoted: Its going to go further north and be stronger than the modeling shows Quoted: Its consistently outperformed all of the modeling and has hugged the right side of the forecast. It just got back to a Cat3 and is strengthening again vs the weakening they've called for. The gulf is in the mid 80s just like the water it just came through and wind shear is low (which hasn't seemed to matter anyway. The high pressure may be the only saving grace for further up the coast, but I'm expecting a hard north turn near or shortly after landfall Yeah a few people were thinking that. The local news has still not caught up with the northward trend and actually said it may go further south than the previous plot. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 6:28:39 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: feel like this fucker is going to hit Houston. the weather channel guy is preaching about how its all but surely going to keep tracking more north and east than its currently showing im golfing in the morning tomorrow then stocking up and prepping accordingly Conroe Texas checking in I have that feeling too. At first it was going way down in mexico. Now Corpus Christi. That's a big shift North from predictions early on. At least I want be on standby this time. ANd hopefully it waon't be a rain event like Harvey was. Ive had at least 30 inches this year already. My property in grimes county is just drying out last week enough to get some bush hogging done. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 7:36:23 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The track keeps shifting northeast… I bet it’s a Matagorda or Freeport landfall. i hope you are wrong . |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 7:48:51 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The track keeps shifting northeast… I bet it’s a Matagorda or Freeport landfall. Please be wrong |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 8:01:34 PM EDT
[#13]
@4q2
@TEXASROOTERSBROTHER I hope I’m wrong as well. I’m in Pearland, northern Brazoria County. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 8:01:40 PM EDT
[#14]
just came off the coast around Progreso
7:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 Location: 21.3°N 89.7°W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 994 mb Max sustained: 65 mph 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 8:08:36 PM EDT
[#15]
Right now the track goes just west of my house.
 It needs to keep moving up the coast.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 8:15:18 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Please be wrong I concur, little brothers are in town for a month and we've been planning a beach fishing trip for awhile now. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 8:17:15 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I have that feeling too. At first it was going way down in mexico. Now Corpus Christi. That's a big shift North from predictions early on. At least I want be on standby this time. ANd hopefully it waon't be a rain event like Harvey was. Ive had at least 30 inches this year already. My property in grimes county is just drying out last week enough to get some bush hogging done. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: feel like this fucker is going to hit Houston. the weather channel guy is preaching about how its all but surely going to keep tracking more north and east than its currently showing im golfing in the morning tomorrow then stocking up and prepping accordingly Conroe Texas checking in I have that feeling too. At first it was going way down in mexico. Now Corpus Christi. That's a big shift North from predictions early on. At least I want be on standby this time. ANd hopefully it waon't be a rain event like Harvey was. Ive had at least 30 inches this year already. My property in grimes county is just drying out last week enough to get some bush hogging done. This one was odd in how it was based on three big factors that were really hard to pin down, and one (the effect of shear) didn't work how it was expected to. Apparently the center of rotation was less than cooperative for a lot of the life, and nobody really knew how the high pressure center over the eastern US was going to behave. Any of those failing in ways that let it get stronger let it go much more north than otherwise would have been expected. In my opinion, the strength predictions for how it will grow in the gulf are way under what they should be. I've seen some talk about it making cat 3 in the gulf, which would just pull it north even more, and keep it over warmer water even longer. So yeah I'm not going to be surprised if it tracks even more north. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 8:40:07 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: just came off the coast around Progreso 7:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 Location: 21.3°N 89.7°W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 994 mb Max sustained: 65 mph https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212133.png Maybe half of the initial windspeed upon landfall in Mexico, two thirds of the movement speed still, and still three more days over decently warm open water to regroup before another landfall. Anything could happen, IMHO. I don't know shit, other than I would still prefer an earthquake with no notice over days of worry. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 9:16:18 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Don’t you put that voodoo on me Ricky! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Its going to go further north and be stronger than the modeling shows Don’t you put that voodoo on me Ricky! I'm in the line too, Galveston county NHC has sucked at this one just like they did Harvey. The independent forecasters have gotten right almost the entire life of the storm while the NHC has been playing catchup. I'm saying sargent/Matagorda as a high 2 (if not a 3) on Monday with a sharp north turn dragging the dirty side across the Houston area, a slowdown of any kind screws us ETA, the biggest issue is that nothing that should have had a negative impact on this storm has worked, it has almost made its own environment as it's moved along. Dry air, nope. Wind shear, it actually dissipated wind shear over the Yucatan. Mountains, Jamaica barely phased it. I don't think the computers really know what to do at this point, except for a couple and, just like Harvey, the people "in charge" have missed the boat and downplayed it while the social media geeks have been hitting home runs. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 9:57:00 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Please be wrong Yea no kidding |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 10:14:09 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: just came off the coast around Progreso 7:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 Location: 21.3 N 89.7 W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 994 mb Max sustained: 65 mph https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212133.png |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 10:58:27 PM EDT
[#22]
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 10:58:27 PM EDT
[#23]
still weakening
10:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 Location: 21.7°N 90.2°W Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 996 mb Max sustained: 60 mph
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:03:08 PM EDT
[#24]
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:12:36 PM EDT
[#25]
We have three Jamaicans working at the inn I work at. Luckily their families are OK and all have power back on. Many others are not so lucky. If even one of them had had something bad happen and needed to return to Jamaka we would have been fucked and probably have to close for the season.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:16:40 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @4q2 @TEXASROOTERSBROTHER I hope I’m wrong as well. I’m in Pearland, northern Brazoria County. Fort bend county here and my brother has a place down near. Matagorda on the Colorado River. We can use some rain but we don’t need the wind at all. Cotton is looking good, Milo is being picked and corn is on the way. Brazos is still pretty high and I don’t want to work a bunch of 16-20 hour days like during Ike. We damn sure don’t need a Carla |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:16:56 PM EDT
[#27]
I've got a non-essential work trip to Houston on Monday morning. What's the word from the locals - should I cancel?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:17:20 PM EDT
[#28]
The issue with the projections so far is that it spurt most of it's wad on the Mexico landfall. IIRC it is being pushed north now due to high altitude shear - which should keep it from reforming and re-intensifying. So while we have always seen the spaghetti model - What is heading for Texas is not the Cat V that hammered the Caribbean. Last I looked, it was under 20% chance of being hurricane strength when it landfalls in Texas. Hell they were only predicting 4" of rain.
Now if it does manage 6' of surge, that will still fuck shit up. Surge can sometimes do more damage than wind and rain. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:25:57 PM EDT
[#29]
Setting sail from Houston tonight and arriving in Miami on Monday. Wish me luck lol
Our route puts us pretty far north of the storm and looking at the marine forecast today nobody seems worried |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:27:07 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've got a non-essential work trip to Houston on Monday morning. What's the word from the locals - should I cancel? Your issue won’t be getting in, it’ll be getting out. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:29:22 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've got a non-essential work trip to Houston on Monday morning. What's the word from the locals - should I cancel? Have you vomited on an airplane before? It's not a huge deal |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/5/2024 11:47:50 PM EDT
[#32]
Just spoke to my in-laws.
My daughter is going down for a week starting tomorrow. Their place is notorious for power cuts. I’m sending a generator down with her. Not worried about wind. It’s the flooding |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 12:12:33 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yeah a few people were thinking that. The local news has still not caught up with the northward trend and actually said it may go further south than the previous plot. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The current official track and projected strength are beginning to fall in line exactly with what @TXBBQGuy predicted last night. Quoted: Its going to go further north and be stronger than the modeling shows Quoted: Its consistently outperformed all of the modeling and has hugged the right side of the forecast. It just got back to a Cat3 and is strengthening again vs the weakening they've called for. The gulf is in the mid 80s just like the water it just came through and wind shear is low (which hasn't seemed to matter anyway. The high pressure may be the only saving grace for further up the coast, but I'm expecting a hard north turn near or shortly after landfall Yeah a few people were thinking that. The local news has still not caught up with the northward trend and actually said it may go further south than the previous plot. All the local "news" does is read a computer model. They have no idea about local patterns, why certain weather events stop, turn more north/south etc... because they're lazy. And/or they haven't lived in said area long enough to know that the "models" like to do X when Y aligns with Z. Meteorologists are lazy now. (It's the same up north. They couldn't tell you what happened yesterday, yet try and tell you what tomorrow will bring) |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 12:27:49 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just spoke to my in-laws. My daughter is going down for a week starting tomorrow. Their place is notorious for power cuts. I’m sending a generator down with her. Not worried about wind. It’s the flooding Everything I’ve seen here says we’ll get have rain. Nothing like the wind from a few months ago. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 12:33:35 AM EDT
[#35]
this storm will end up in New England. Not as a hurricane (obviously, because the water there is too cold) but will be a rain/wind event when it arrives. Possible ST storm conditions.
Heard it here first. Only betting 1 pmag. Mainely [pun intended] because just in case I'm wrong, why lose more? Anyway, to everyone down south, stay safe. Was gonna head down there next week. But I'm trying to sell a business where I am currently, and there's always delays..... |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 12:37:13 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Everything I’ve seen here says we’ll get have rain. Nothing like the wind from a few months ago. They’re inside the beltway - north east of Sugarland. Lots of flooding around them but never had it come up their driveway. In the 10 years I’ve known them, they’ve been without power more times than I can count. Zero preparedness. I’m tempted to just let them keep the generator I’m sending down. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 12:41:36 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Please be wrong Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The track keeps shifting northeast… I bet it’s a Matagorda or Freeport landfall. Please be wrong I'm going closer to the border (of TX/LA) Between Beaumont/Lake Charles |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 12:46:16 AM EDT
[#38]
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. It kinda sucks for me since I'm stuck in an apartment in Corpus Christi for a while. It's hard to have a good solid prep plan when living in an apartment. The 10pm discussion was still forecasting 90mph winds at landfall. Not Cat 5 but not chump change, either. Heck we had power blinking with that tropical storm (Alberto) that dumped 10-12 inches of rain on Corpus. And, the center of that storm was over 300 miles away. Beryl has been a fairly compact hurricane even at it's brief brush with Cat 5 status. So, we'll wait and see how it plays out.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 12:56:51 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: feel like this fucker is going to hit Houston. the weather channel guy is preaching about how its all but surely going to keep tracking more north and east than its currently showing im golfing in the morning tomorrow then stocking up and prepping accordingly Conroe Texas checking in Texas City checking in. You want me to teach you how to fish? |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 1:01:50 AM EDT
[#40]
Cypress area here. I've had a bad feeling about this thing since it's been in the Atlantic. Went out last Saturday and bought some window units so we can at least stay cool. That was really the only thing we've been lacking. We've been joking at work that as soon as they finish repairing everything from the freak storm in May, another storm would come along. As far as I can tell, they're pretty well done with the new high lines along West Rd. in-between Fry and 99. I could see the Northern tracking trend that apparently no one else could see. I hope I'm wrong, but I still wouldn't be surprised if this thing comes in somewhere between Victoria and Freeport. Even after May, as far as I can tell, no one seems to have much of a care or has better prepared themselves.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 1:02:31 AM EDT
[#41]
I'm in Magnolia, and will be restocking prepping supplies tomorrow. I moved here in March so this will be my first "major" storm besides the one in May.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 1:05:17 AM EDT
[#42]
I was up near Nacogdoches in east, TX when one of the hurricanes after Katrina hit the Houston area. Wind and rain wasn't bad but went almost two weeks without power from the power company because of all the trees the power here has to come through to get here, Weyerhauser (was Temple Inland) timber company land and my neighbor the national forest. I had a whole house generator but lot of people didn't and only one gas station had a diesel generator so they could keep pumping gas for portable generators.
I'll bring up paper maps, maybe have one. I went to Baton Rouge right before Katrina to pick up some relatives stuff to get it out of the house if something happened. I left the morning before it hit. I went north in MS and then across the river at Natchez and cut across to East, TX. Took me about an hour longer than normal. But people were acting like the only way to get out of south, LA was via the interstate which normally would be a good way to go, but there were tons of highways and other roads that were man near empty. A friend left New Orleans with his wife and never made it to Baton Rouge which is normally an hour away and turned around and went back, 12 hours. My friend was working at the charity hospital in New Orleans that got flooded. He couldn't call his parents in a short distance away, his wife in Baton Rouge either. They had one land line. Most peoples phones died with no charging and their numbers were in their cell phones. When they died nobody to call and most calls were for local calls and those weren't working. He called me in East, TX every day and finally on the last day he gave me the talk about his wife if something happened since I was in his wedding. Carry numbers on you and not in your phone if you can. I could then call his wife in BR but she couldn't call him. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 1:21:38 AM EDT
[#43]
I am in the northern part of Houston visiting a friend. Do you folks in the area have ham radios?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 1:25:49 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I am in the northern part of Houston visiting a friend. Do you folks in the area have ham radios? I have an extra license in East, TX. About 2 to 2-1/2 hours north of there. However if the wind picks up I take down my 43' vertical antenna since I only do HF. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 1:28:14 AM EDT
[#45]
Ran out to Bucee’s in Texas City for non-ethanol gas for the generators. As I was filling up the guy next to me asked why so many fuel cans. I said have you heard about the storm in the Gulf and he goes “what storm?”
  Attached File |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 1:56:06 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ran out to Bucee’s in Texas City for non-ethanol gas for the generators. As I was filling up the guy next to me asked why so many fuel cans. I said have you heard about the storm in the Gulf and he goes “what storm?” https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/18852/IMG_1080_jpeg-3259436.JPG Typical, clueless morons are everywhere. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 2:09:57 AM EDT
[#47]
I have extended family in Freeport (or Lake Jackson I'm not sure) and when I talked to her earlier she had no idea. Not surprised.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 5:38:15 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They’re inside the beltway - north east of Sugarland. Lots of flooding around them but never had it come up their driveway. In the 10 years I’ve known them, they’ve been without power more times than I can count. Zero preparedness. I’m tempted to just let them keep the generator I’m sending down. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Everything I’ve seen here says we’ll get have rain. Nothing like the wind from a few months ago. They’re inside the beltway - north east of Sugarland. Lots of flooding around them but never had it come up their driveway. In the 10 years I’ve known them, they’ve been without power more times than I can count. Zero preparedness. I’m tempted to just let them keep the generator I’m sending down. I just don’t think it’s going to be that bad. I have a friend about my age 63-64 that works for Centerpoint energy our light company and he told me after this last blow buy a generator. They had thousands of contractors and loads of supplies but the contractors hardly would climb poles and were adverse to busting ass working. He also said the coordination need to utilize the contractors and the materials seemed beyond the skills of those in management. He remembers the old light company Houston lighting and power fondly. Basically the older get the job done high experience level climb poles every day linemen have been weakened by those without the debth of knowledge and the grit to get it done. And the management is full of ass hats afraid to do what is necessary to fix the problem. Just having a generator is not enough. Finding fuel and paying for days of running it are going to be the problem. Hopefully it will not be too bad. Guess I’m going to fill the work trucks I did not get to yesterday |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 7:17:05 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I just don’t think it’s going to be that bad. I have a friend about my age 63-64 that works for Centerpoint energy our light company and he told me after this last blow buy a generator. They had thousands of contractors and loads of supplies but the contractors hardly would climb poles and were adverse to busting ass working. He also said the coordination need to utilize the contractors and the materials seemed beyond the skills of those in management. He remembers the old light company Houston lighting and power fondly. Basically the older get the job done high experience level climb poles every day linemen have been weakened by those without the debth of knowledge and the grit to get it done. And the management is full of ass hats afraid to do what is necessary to fix the problem. Just having a generator is not enough. Finding fuel and paying for days of running it are going to be the problem. Hopefully it will not be too bad. Guess I’m going to fill the work trucks I did not get to yesterday Sounds like Centerpoint sucks ass and is too top heavy. Rural electric coops still get shit done and make miracles happen during outages. Our coops that do mutual aid like they've worked together forever wouldn't put up with that kind of shit from contractors. |
|
|
|
Posted: 7/6/2024 7:19:10 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm in Magnolia, and will be restocking prepping supplies tomorrow. I moved here in March so this will be my first "major" storm besides the one in May. I’m inside the loop. Ridden out more hurricanes that I can count, also evac’d for quite a few. Perk of growing up here. Haven’t seen anything in the current forecast or modeling that suggests this will be a freak event. Standard hurricane preps - food for 1-2 weeks depending on risk tolerance, critical meds, ice, water for drinking and toilets. |
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
Attached File