We (EMS) just got out on standby.  This would be my 4th hurricane deployment.  

Seems this morning the models are moving around again.

Yeah, I'm still working on my first cup of coffee.

Nothing like the joys of a split decision. A good friend (who was gonna bunker at our house) is now looking at AirBNBs at Orlando and wants us to come with.  I cant really argue about getting out of the way of a Cat 3+, but the GF is wanting to stay put. I hate that a storm 3 days away can cause so much chaos with just the threat of hitting.

Flooding isn't a risk, but strong winds with live oaks make me nervous...

I was supposed to fly to Orlando on Friday, finally talked the wife into moving our flight to Monday (week from today.) At least then I can evaluate before actually getting on the plane.

Good luck all arfcommers in FL.

50% chance this could be the I-4 hurricane making landfall near Tampa and cutting through Orlando, exiting in Daytona. That would be worse case scenario as far as population impact.

Clearwater checking in

Not liking the latest from the Euro model and the HWRF models. Both have slid their projections westward.

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I can't believe how many people have Florida Vacations planned for September.

At least living under a rock is probably pretty safe.

I think that's my plan at this point.  Push the Orlando trip out to Friday to give us more time to see what Ian does and then cancel if things go sideways.  I would push to just cancel our trip but the wife really wants to go and it's probably the last chance.  I would never put my family in danger regardless of what the wife wants, but if we end up going it will be late enough in the storm that I will know if it's safe or not.  Even if we go, I expect impacts, but if she wants to chance the vacation being negatively impacted by inconveniences and power outages then fine with me.  I definitely do not want to push hard for cancellation and then have a minor event.  Not like we're going to Tampa.

I thought the farther north it makes landfall the weaker it will be due to wind shear?  Could just be a cat 1 or less by the time it gets to the panhandle.

I swear i am gonna have a stroke from the stress of trying to guess which way this bitch is going.

Looks like the worst for Orlando will be early Thursday morning. It all depends on the track. If winds are 40 mph they will suspend all flights. Friday should be ok unless the storm causes major damage at MCO.

Respectfully you are the one hiding under a rock. Live life and make changes if needed.

Yes, they are predicting a pretty good weakening the further north it gets. The HWRF has it as a tropical storm when the center crosses the coast:

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The last Euro reading didn't run all the way to landfall in its latest positioning but in the previous run it had it dropping to a low Cat 1 as it went north of Tampa Bay.

Those of you wondering about air travel, air ports..?

In general airport’s will remain open but as soon as the wind speed gets to about 30mph..? Especially if a cross wind. They will shut it down near instantly. Plus..forward looking airlines are already looking to get their aircraft out of there.
So..you end up with nearly no indication of a shut down or canceled flights until .. well, it happens.
Of course depending on the relative wind speeds expected and when..?

The other consideration is every day from now on the traffic from mid, central Florida has potential to be really ugly.

If you add about 15 more of those, you might see what my back yard looked like after Laura/Delta. I have a few with 12 ft rootballs.

You live right near my dad. He’s of 19 by the springs. Probably use the same hardware store considering there’s nothing else lol

Based on what model? Lol

Yeah, they will do that to you.

I'm in Lithia. At this point, I've told myself we are riding out a Cat 3 and that's what I'm prepped for.

Have a couple of generators, a couple of portable AC's, 50 gallons of gas, and shit tons of water and food.

Cleaning up the property today to be ready to bunker down Wednesday.

My biggest concern is our five dogs getting along with our 150lb pig who usually lives in a barn outside.

Still hoping its not near that or that it turns, but at this point, it is what it is.

How close are you to the Alafia River.

Latest update for a weather service


Key Points
?1. Ian may slow its forward speed as it passes offshore Clearwater, Florida on Thursday. ?
2. There is a threat of hurricane force winds and a large storm surge along the west coast of Florida Wednesday and Thursday.

Our Forecast
?We have noticed a slight westward shift in the overnight model runs. Models that were taking Ian inland just south of Tampa are now taking the center just offshore of Tampa during the day on Thursday. Our forecast has not changed since the last advisory. We have the center passing just west of Clearwater, FL early Thursday afternoon with landfall near Crystal River Thursday evening. Once inland, Ian will track northward into Georgia by Friday afternoon then across the western Carolinas on Saturday, where it will weaken to a remnant low pressure area.

Something to watch for over the next 48 hours is for any increase in Ian's forward speed compared to the forecast. If Ian moves more quickly than predicted, then landfall could occur farther south down the peninsula on Wednesday, perhaps just south of Tampa. For now, this is only a possibility - something we will be watching for today and tomorrow.

One thing that all of the models are agreeing upon is that Ian may slow its forward speed considerably just as it is passing west of Tampa. This could result in a prolonged period of strong winds, heavy squalls, and a high storm surge into the Tampa Bay area on Thursday. We have Ian's forward speed slowing to about 5 mph as it passes west of Tampa. This slow-down could occur inland if Ian moves faster than we are predicting, as mentioned above.

Finally, there are uncertainties as far as Ian's intensity. A reconnaissance plane currently investigating Ian has found only a small area of hurricane force wind northeast of the center. We think that Ian could become a major Category 3 hurricane prior to passing western Cuba on Tuesday, but Ian's intensity at landfall in Florida is uncertain. If Ian tracks more quickly than we are forecasting, then it could remain a Category 3 hurricane up until landfall south of Tampa. If Ian makes landfall farther north up the Peninsula or into the eastern Panhandle, than it would likely be significantly weaker. Our forecast has Ian tracking slowly enough on Tuesday and Wednesday such that it would pass just west of Clearwater and begin to weaken prior to landfall near Crystal River on Thursday evening.

The ICON model shows that exact scenario.

Figuring out the animal situation is a bigger deal than I had expected.  We're putting our horses in a neighbors field (too many old oaks in ours) and letting chickens, turkeys and cats loose on the property.  We'll see how many make it.  I had an ARFCOMMER who rode out Charley in Cape Coral describe how his dog tried to dig through the floor until his feet bled, and that always stuck in my mind.  I wonder how many dogs and cats we'll see up for adoption out of Tampa in a few weeks.

I'm not sure what model but the weather site I use has the path.  It shows it over Orlando on the 29th and heading to Daytona.

There is a massive high pressure cold front from Canada making its way to Florida.  That is going to change the path of the storm.  As I learned from previous Arfcom threads the storms move towards low pressure so that high pressure front is going to change things.  In the image the blue/green is the low pressure of the storm and the high pressure front, darker orange, is pushing into the pan handle.  If that high pressure front prediction is accurate then it will keep the storm further south.  This is for Thursday 9/29.

This is what a cat 5 looks like....

After the impact...
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As the trees start getting moved to the street for cleanup...
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Waiting for debris pick up...
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I'm driving.

I know people in St Pete Beach who as of right now are staying put. They live on the water.

Yep, that is what I am seeing. While the storm will weaken from the cold front, it will also slow it down considerably which could result in catastrophic flooding. It’s the rainfall amount that should worry people more than the wind.

So prepare like you're going to get a direct hit, and anything less will be good news.  Making sure you've done everything you can to prepare can be something of a stress reliever.

Sandbag locations opened up in Citrus County today at 8am.  FYI.

Irma was I think about 1.5 as it rolled by here. All the neighbors who said they were gonna ride it out left a day or two before predicted arrival (barring one). All of them regretted leaving. We’re prepped and riding it out. Not going anywhere with the cats, dogs, parrots, hens…..??

Looks like the eye wall is forming from that sat image

You are quite right. And truthfully, aside from replacing my house windows, I have done all I can:
80lb Propane, 15 gal gas, Generators oiled and tested (plus spare plugs and oil), Trees pruned as possible
Weeks of food (rationing of course), 20 gal water (more if i break out the bob)
Several tarps and drop cloths, Trashbags, Video recorded of house contents and condition..

Of 2 people I personally know in that general area, one that has lived near New Port Richey over 20 years has already bugged out and the other guy that just moved to Homosassa last year is staying put, he lives right on a canal just off the river too. I think the latter is making a mistake, he has always been hardheaded and thinks he is invincible.

Not close at all and I'm way up in the thin air at 29' of elevation.

Flooding from river or bay won't be an issue for me. If it does, we have bigger problems because that means Riverview and Fishhawk are under water too.

Definitely expecting 6-8" of standing water from the rain in some areas of the property but the house sits higher than the rest of the property.

Hillsborough county just issued a evacuation order for zone A. I’m Zone B. Right about the middle of the orange area. I feel like it’s only a matter of time. The real question is do we pack up the guns and valuables and head to St Augustine or do I just send the wife girls and and hang back to keep the house from getting pillaged.


Edit to add that area is probably the wealthiest in county. Without anyone there it will most definitely be diversified and receive some vibrancy.

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Life is more important than stuff. I've had the same challenge of what guns to pack, I can't take them all.

The Sheriff was just on the briefing and he said he would protect your property.  Nothing to worry about.

Yeah, our neighbors have their horses in a horse barns that cost more than my house. (Big equestrian area)

They are leaving cattle out and my other neighbor says he's just locking the coop for his chickens. (Also ridiculously over built).

We have a pack of feral cats that run around the area, I'm sure they will find someplace to hide out.

We are drugging the dogs with Trazadone for the storm and the pig used to be an inside pig before so he will hang out in a spare bedroom until the storm passes and then he will head right back out.

I’d have a hard time leaving if I wasn’t in a storm surge area.

I would actually kinda trust Chronister. Problem is I’m city of Tampa and the woke mayor and her diversity hire criminal police chief will do nothing. Yeah the new police chief didn’t have active law enforcement certs when she was hired and assaulted a LEO when she was younger when BF was getting arrested for DUI. She didn’t get prosecuted because she was also LEO at the time. Mary is a real winner.

Compared to the rest of Arf I’m gun poor. I can take what I have pretty easily.

Don't even think about coming here this week.  It will be a mess.  There will be massive power outages through out the state and there will be tons of wind and rain.  

All those employees at Disney and Legoland and everyplace else will want to be at home hunkering down.

Straight across to Brevard county, you still have a chance to find a place to stay. St Aug will be packed by the time you get there.

Chronister is the only person in the Hillsborough Co/Tampa leadership worth a damn.  The rest are affirmative action dumbasses.

If you have a dog that is bothered by storms get a vet to write a prescription for some xanax or something like that for riding out the storm.