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Posted: 1/9/2022 6:42:40 PM EDT
[#1]
They can do anything they want. We're not even allowed to know the names of the folks that own the Federal Reserve.
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Posted: 1/9/2022 6:43:48 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think the fed has 2 choices. 1 - Let the people who've doubled their money in the stock market in 12 months keep all their gains. 2 - Allow poor people to be able to afford food and shelter. IMO, I expect the Fed to care about the poor people, and try to stop inflation.  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 6:50:01 PM EDT
[#3]
They kind of have to, but they also kind of can't.
Our economic policy has been unsustainable for some time now. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 6:52:13 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Best we can hope for is just fall off the world stage and end up like Great Britain. People are still successful, secure and comfortable there. Just not a world empire anymore. That being said, the USA adopted them as our little brother and helped took care of them as our best little buds. When the USA collapses, who will be our big brother? Hopefully we can just take care of ourselves, secure our borders and become isolationists while we recover. With our politicians in charge and half of America hates it, we'll be sucking chinese cock and they have no intentions of being our big brothers protecting us in mutual interests. Convenient that the average empire lasts 250 years and average fiat currency lasts about 40-50 years, and we're at the end of both those natural cycles. It sounds so generic and cliche to say, but Beans, Bullets and Bullion. Assets that you own, and can physically hold in your hand. Live outside of city limits. Do not rely on any pension, government payment or help. If you do currently, wane yourself from that shit so it's not a shock if it happens to go away some day. And when it happens, never forget what the Fed helped create, and if we get the opportunity to rebuild, well... remember. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I freely admit im not overly smart when it comes to all this shit... but it does not take a genius to recognize everythings totally fucked up, and hard times are coming for the american citizens. REALLY HARD TIMES. Like weimer republic, great depression, zimbabwe , starvation type problems. The government is being run by corrupt, incompetent idiots and that cockblocks any hope of a easy fix, guarantees we hit the iceberg so to speak as well. We will all go to bed one night and wake up in the soviet union circa 1990 where the gov is flat broke and cant pay fed employees much less ebt, ss, and a hundred other benefits. Anyone who claims otherwise is clueless or whistling past the graveyard. Best we can hope for is just fall off the world stage and end up like Great Britain. People are still successful, secure and comfortable there. Just not a world empire anymore. That being said, the USA adopted them as our little brother and helped took care of them as our best little buds. When the USA collapses, who will be our big brother? Hopefully we can just take care of ourselves, secure our borders and become isolationists while we recover. With our politicians in charge and half of America hates it, we'll be sucking chinese cock and they have no intentions of being our big brothers protecting us in mutual interests. Convenient that the average empire lasts 250 years and average fiat currency lasts about 40-50 years, and we're at the end of both those natural cycles. It sounds so generic and cliche to say, but Beans, Bullets and Bullion. Assets that you own, and can physically hold in your hand. Live outside of city limits. Do not rely on any pension, government payment or help. If you do currently, wane yourself from that shit so it's not a shock if it happens to go away some day. And when it happens, never forget what the Fed helped create, and if we get the opportunity to rebuild, well... remember. I dont see any peaceful fix. With corrupt idiots like biden in charge, anyone with a clue replaced by dumbass last in class diversity hires, theres zero chance of even identifying the problem, much less fixing it. Every politician we have are raiding the coffers, stealing all they can, to afford their private luxury bunkers to ride out the coming financial disaster. They have no intention of fixing it, or stopping it. Hell they are doing it on purpose , its intentional. This is the skill level of the us government right now. Maybe put water on it..  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 6:56:36 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They kind of have to, but they also kind of can't. Our economic policy has been unsustainable for some time now. 
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Posted: 1/9/2022 7:05:49 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryWow!!!!! I mean wow dude. That is the most excellent analysis I’ve seen. You are spot on. Nailed it. @preachermanmatt Everybody should watch this |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 7:10:41 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:  Then maybe it is just you investing wrong. Go ahead and list 10 stocks that have lost 50% of their value in the last year.Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: A lot of stocks are already at a 50% haircut from a year ago. Then maybe it is just you investing wrong. Go ahead and list 10 stocks that have lost 50% of their value in the last year.52-Week All US Exchanges Percent Change Declines |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 7:34:27 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why the hell do you think I’ve been screaming buy us stock for years now? There’s no other place to make money. No other place to beat inflation. All around the world, the demand is for US stock. The fed must raise rate, it’s only a bank to bank thing, and banks are in the business of making money. As all businesses are. The secondary aspect is controlling consumer behavior. This is where inflation comes to play. Covid radically shifted consumer spending and behavior. You guys can keep ignoring me, tellling me I’m wrong. Yet here we are. We may grumble spidey07 but a lot of us listen. You advice has done a lot of guys on hear real well. THANK YOU. I grumbled but followed your advice this last year and made good money. I was thinking of pulling out a year ago. But now I am being a wimp, I don't want to be in the market when the Taper, QT, rate hike all hits the market at once. So I am setting Q1 and maybe Q2 out to see what happens. You know there is a flip side, and spidey07 could be right and this thing just crashed through the roof as money floods into the market from around the world as a safe haven. I mean there is still a lot of money out there looking for a home. It could happen. If I start seeing that, I am jumping back in. That whole, markets don't just crash down, sometimes they crash UP. But I also think if that happens, the insane gains the market has will be matched with insane inflation. And if you are in cash and that happens you will just be wiped out. I am wondering if the Fed might be seeing some of that looking at the chart from the last 2 years going. We need to cool this thing off. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 7:41:44 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Best we can hope for is just fall off the world stage and end up like Great Britain. People are still successful, secure and comfortable there. Just not a world empire anymore. That being said, the USA adopted them as our little brother and helped took care of them as our best little buds. When the USA collapses, who will be our big brother? Hopefully we can just take care of ourselves, secure our borders and become isolationists while we recover. With our politicians in charge and half of America hates it, we'll be sucking chinese cock and they have no intentions of being our big brothers protecting us in mutual interests. Convenient that the average empire lasts 250 years and average fiat currency lasts about 40-50 years, and we're at the end of both those natural cycles. It sounds so generic and cliche to say, but Beans, Bullets and Bullion. Assets that you own, and can physically hold in your hand. Live outside of city limits. Do not rely on any pension, government payment or help. If you do currently, wane yourself from that shit so it's not a shock if it happens to go away some day. And when it happens, never forget what the Fed helped create, and if we get the opportunity to rebuild, well... remember. Something else at play hear to that not many talk about. That is population numbers. Our population is getting older, and people aren't having enough kids. That is why our gov wants the open borders, they want young cheep labor to keep things running. This affects property prices and the prices or everything else, including the profits of the companies in the market. Europe and china are in MUCH worse shape on that one. But the real winners there will be developing nations like India. The govs in Europe see this and that's why they where flooding in immigrants. I HATE it and hate what it does with wages and to a society, but just from cold hard numbers I see why they are doing it. The people running things don't give a crap about anything but the numbers... So I don't think we will ever go isolationist. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 7:51:33 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: THANK YOU for that. I didn't even think of that, shows how much I know... I am digging into it a little right now. I may be buying some of those. Near as I can tell. After one year I can cash it out, so not totally trapped. And from year 1-5 I lose 3 months int for early withdraw penalty. But shit those rates (even with a 3 month loss of int) still beat anything else out there right now for a CD like product. BUT the thing is, if there is a big market correction, I would like to be able to move in and snap some things up that are on sale.... and don't want locked in for one year. BUT this is a limited about, and a good way to diversify some cash so probably going to buy some. Thanks again. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I like I bonds from treasury direct.gov right now paying 7% and you can get 10k per year per family member. Its a good safe place otherwise I'd shift out of unrealistic bullshit. I like some commodity for inflation hedge, consumer staples, telecom, and energy, they will suffer too but not like meme stocks will. As for buying a home some markets are still semi affordable others I'd just avoid. THANK YOU for that. I didn't even think of that, shows how much I know... I am digging into it a little right now. I may be buying some of those. Near as I can tell. After one year I can cash it out, so not totally trapped. And from year 1-5 I lose 3 months int for early withdraw penalty. But shit those rates (even with a 3 month loss of int) still beat anything else out there right now for a CD like product. BUT the thing is, if there is a big market correction, I would like to be able to move in and snap some things up that are on sale.... and don't want locked in for one year. BUT this is a limited about, and a good way to diversify some cash so probably going to buy some. Thanks again. 12/months real estate is prob not crashing. The stock market is not going to be a buy the dip scenario its going to sit low for a long time IMO |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:01:08 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, the dual mandate is not a good thing, it is the single worst thing that has happened to the Fed. Their only focus should be price stability. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And to keep the county at full employment. It is a dual mandate and that is good as it puts constraints on them as one effects the other. Their only focus should be price stability. Congress shouldn't have abdicated their job. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:07:50 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wow!!!!! I mean wow dude. That is the most excellent analysis I’ve seen. You are spot on. Nailed it. @preachermanmatt Everybody should watch this Thanks brother |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:16:37 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 12/months real estate is prob not crashing. The stock market is not going to be a buy the dip scenario its going to sit low for a long time IMO Yeah, I don’t think buying the dip is the right move for 2022. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:18:02 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: THANK YOU for that. I didn't even think of that, shows how much I know... I am digging into it a little right now. I may be buying some of those. Near as I can tell. After one year I can cash it out, so not totally trapped. And from year 1-5 I lose 3 months int for early withdraw penalty. But shit those rates (even with a 3 month loss of int) still beat anything else out there right now for a CD like product. BUT the thing is, if there is a big market correction, I would like to be able to move in and snap some things up that are on sale.... and don't want locked in for one year. BUT this is a limited about, and a good way to diversify some cash so probably going to buy some. Thanks again. There is a limit on how much Ibond you can purchase each year and it's really not that much. I think it is 10k per person or 20k for a couple plus you can use your tax return. Still not a bad deal though |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:32:25 PM EDT
[#15]
Bring supply to market. They have several trillion dollars debt instruments on their balance sheet which can be sold. The effect would be to trade them for dollars which could be remitted to the US Treasury after paying operating expenses and the coupon on preferred shares. That’s how it is supposed to work in the charter anyway.
Supply up = prices down Bond prices down = yield to maturity up (spot market interest rates) If you want to see how it works, look at the bond pricing formula. If that is too much fun for you, just pull up a bond pricing calculator and play with the numbers |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:37:02 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Rock and hard place. Their sudden change in plans indicate they are panicking. Never listen to what they say only what they do. The fed is going to raise rates and they are hoping it only takes 1% to calm down inflation. There are really two conclusions from that, either the economy is so fragile it can't handle 1% or 1% isnt going to do shit to slow inflation. They are trying to talk the economy out of inflation or bluff it out. Valuations of everything is stupid. That never continues. This is not a short term cycle now, this cycle started in the 90s, its part of a super cycle that had a lot of positives. But that's done. Get out of your my model says buy the dip paradigm. The next economic turn is going to test your timeframe to stay solevent. Get diversified and use high volatility hedges to inflation while keeping opportunity optionality aka cash for deflation in assets. As I said though ensure you can handle a 10 to 20 year lack of return. Get out of thr crack pipe investments while you can. What change ? I thought it had known for awhile they were planning to raise rates in 2022. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:38:13 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Rock and hard place. Their sudden change in plans indicate they are panicking. Never listen to what they say only what they do. The fed is going to raise rates and they are hoping it only takes 1% to calm down inflation. There are really two conclusions from that, either the economy is so fragile it can't handle 1% or 1% isnt going to do shit to slow inflation. They are trying to talk the economy out of inflation or bluff it out. Valuations of everything is stupid. That never continues. This is not a short term cycle now, this cycle started in the 90s, its part of a super cycle that had a lot of positives. But that's done. Get out of your my model says buy the dip paradigm. The next economic turn is going to test your timeframe to stay solevent. Get diversified and use high volatility hedges to inflation while keeping opportunity optionality aka cash for deflation in assets. As I said though ensure you can handle a 10 to 20 year lack of return. Get out of thr crack pipe investments while you can. What would that be ? |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:39:17 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: they can't. they won't. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 8:57:41 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What would that be ? The examples of that, that pop into my mind are VXX and VXZ. But those are sorta a scary ride, and are always descending due to role over losses, BUT they can have insane spike to the up side. Lol I was looking at playing them a little. But they can have volatility that makes crypto look stable. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:02:01 PM EDT
[#20]
But I would love to hear other ideas. I love the I bond for a good place to park 10k in this environment, that looks good to me. Other ideas? I was wondering about foreign currency to dollar spreads. I think the dollar is going to do well vs some other currencies though this mess. But I know nothing about that and have never played with it.
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:08:55 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They can't. Any meaningful increase will bring about bankruptcies. The US government can't afford to service its debt, yet alone try to pay it off (El Oh El). The Too Big To Fail/Jail crowd can't survive either as they rely on cheap currency to survive. Any decrease/tapering will also be meaningless. What? .25 of one percent? El Oh El again. The entire fiat currency system is based on an expanding currency supply until it doesn't work; at which point it collapses. We're near that point now and if you know fiat currency history, you would know that fiat currencies historically lasts only 40-50 years. We're past the 50 year mark and that's a pretty good run; but when it's over, it's over. Unfortunately its demise will destroy a large part of the middle class (which was on intent) as wealth is not destroyed but transferred and in this case, upwards. Don't let this happen to your grandchildren yet to be born. End the Fed. End their power over us. Stop the thefts. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:13:38 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 25 years ago I was meth addict tweaked on, fucked up, and out of my mind. That's where the fed is with low rates and printing money. They're kind of stuck, because it's all sort of premised on not stopping, because if they stop, it's all going to blow up in their face. And that's what it takes, that's what it took for me, to stop and get my shit straight, but it was extremely unpleasant. Someone else had to force it on me, because I was never going to go that way on my own. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Aside from rates, they need to stop buying stuff. FED needs to completely stop, not just slow down, buying Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities. The market distortion is huge because of the Fed. And boy, would the Gov have a problem if they couldn't print money to pay their expenses.  25 years ago I was meth addict tweaked on, fucked up, and out of my mind. That's where the fed is with low rates and printing money. They're kind of stuck, because it's all sort of premised on not stopping, because if they stop, it's all going to blow up in their face. And that's what it takes, that's what it took for me, to stop and get my shit straight, but it was extremely unpleasant. Someone else had to force it on me, because I was never going to go that way on my own. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:29:48 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There is a limit on how much Ibond you can purchase each year and it's really not that much. I think it is 10k per person or 20k for a couple plus you can use your tax return. Still not a bad deal though Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: THANK YOU for that. I didn't even think of that, shows how much I know... I am digging into it a little right now. I may be buying some of those. Near as I can tell. After one year I can cash it out, so not totally trapped. And from year 1-5 I lose 3 months int for early withdraw penalty. But shit those rates (even with a 3 month loss of int) still beat anything else out there right now for a CD like product. BUT the thing is, if there is a big market correction, I would like to be able to move in and snap some things up that are on sale.... and don't want locked in for one year. BUT this is a limited about, and a good way to diversify some cash so probably going to buy some. Thanks again. There is a limit on how much Ibond you can purchase each year and it's really not that much. I think it is 10k per person or 20k for a couple plus you can use your tax return. Still not a bad deal though And 10k for every kid you have |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:32:13 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We may grumble spidey07 but a lot of us listen. You advice has done a lot of guys on hear real well. THANK YOU. I grumbled but followed your advice this last year and made good money. I was thinking of pulling out a year ago. But now I am being a wimp, I don't want to be in the market when the Taper, QT, rate hike all hits the market at once. So I am setting Q1 and maybe Q2 out to see what happens. You know there is a flip side, and spidey07 could be right and this thing just crashed through the roof as money floods into the market from around the world as a safe haven. I mean there is still a lot of money out there looking for a home. It could happen. If I start seeing that, I am jumping back in. That whole, markets don't just crash down, sometimes they crash UP. But I also think if that happens, the insane gains the market has will be matched with insane inflation. And if you are in cash and that happens you will just be wiped out. I am wondering if the Fed might be seeing some of that looking at the chart from the last 2 years going. We need to cool this thing off. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Why the hell do you think I've been screaming buy us stock for years now? There's no other place to make money. No other place to beat inflation. All around the world, the demand is for US stock. The fed must raise rate, it's only a bank to bank thing, and banks are in the business of making money. As all businesses are. The secondary aspect is controlling consumer behavior. This is where inflation comes to play. Covid radically shifted consumer spending and behavior. You guys can keep ignoring me, tellling me I'm wrong. Yet here we are. We may grumble spidey07 but a lot of us listen. You advice has done a lot of guys on hear real well. THANK YOU. I grumbled but followed your advice this last year and made good money. I was thinking of pulling out a year ago. But now I am being a wimp, I don't want to be in the market when the Taper, QT, rate hike all hits the market at once. So I am setting Q1 and maybe Q2 out to see what happens. You know there is a flip side, and spidey07 could be right and this thing just crashed through the roof as money floods into the market from around the world as a safe haven. I mean there is still a lot of money out there looking for a home. It could happen. If I start seeing that, I am jumping back in. That whole, markets don't just crash down, sometimes they crash UP. But I also think if that happens, the insane gains the market has will be matched with insane inflation. And if you are in cash and that happens you will just be wiped out. I am wondering if the Fed might be seeing some of that looking at the chart from the last 2 years going. We need to cool this thing off. i bought shitton in 2020 when the fat puffy puss spider ranted in early 2020. made out like a bandit. sadly the s&p is the only place to park rn. #ratesoutbullsout |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:32:22 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What change ? I thought it had known for awhile they were planning to raise rates in 2022. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Rock and hard place. Their sudden change in plans indicate they are panicking. Never listen to what they say only what they do. The fed is going to raise rates and they are hoping it only takes 1% to calm down inflation. There are really two conclusions from that, either the economy is so fragile it can't handle 1% or 1% isnt going to do shit to slow inflation. They are trying to talk the economy out of inflation or bluff it out. Valuations of everything is stupid. That never continues. This is not a short term cycle now, this cycle started in the 90s, its part of a super cycle that had a lot of positives. But that's done. Get out of your my model says buy the dip paradigm. The next economic turn is going to test your timeframe to stay solevent. Get diversified and use high volatility hedges to inflation while keeping opportunity optionality aka cash for deflation in assets. As I said though ensure you can handle a 10 to 20 year lack of return. Get out of thr crack pipe investments while you can. What change ? I thought it had known for awhile they were planning to raise rates in 2022. It was supposed to be 2023 for rates and 2022 to end taper maybe June and now its likely rates and taper ended by march. Thats a big change especially from inflinflstion isn't a concern BS |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:33:11 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What would that be ? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Rock and hard place. Their sudden change in plans indicate they are panicking. Never listen to what they say only what they do. The fed is going to raise rates and they are hoping it only takes 1% to calm down inflation. There are really two conclusions from that, either the economy is so fragile it can't handle 1% or 1% isnt going to do shit to slow inflation. They are trying to talk the economy out of inflation or bluff it out. Valuations of everything is stupid. That never continues. This is not a short term cycle now, this cycle started in the 90s, its part of a super cycle that had a lot of positives. But that's done. Get out of your my model says buy the dip paradigm. The next economic turn is going to test your timeframe to stay solevent. Get diversified and use high volatility hedges to inflation while keeping opportunity optionality aka cash for deflation in assets. As I said though ensure you can handle a 10 to 20 year lack of return. Get out of thr crack pipe investments while you can. What would that be ? CMDY I like there are many other options |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:33:16 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And 10k for every kid you have lol and from my reading your kid can pay the taxes on his int earnings each year. But I may have read that wrong, I just laughed when I read that. Like what is the tax rate for a child... NICE. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:43:22 PM EDT
[#28]
It's magic.
Which means it's fuckery. I've been here since 2008 and we've lost our damn minds at least 3 times expecting the government to default and leave us pushing a shopping cart full of beans and Chef Boyardee down the highway while Glenn Beck's words ring in our mind. What's to stop them from just deleting shit on the fed balance sheet? It's not like it's audited. What's to stop the Fed from just buying debt to offset rate hikes? Greenspan said, on live TV, that the debt didn't matter. Just move some numbers around and it's gone. All you can expect is fuckery. Plan for the worst and hope for the least amount of "unforseen" side effects. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:45:21 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: lol and from my reading your kid can pay the taxes on his int earnings each year. But I may have read that wrong, I just laughed when I read that. Like what is the tax rate for a child... NICE. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And 10k for every kid you have lol and from my reading your kid can pay the taxes on his int earnings each year. But I may have read that wrong, I just laughed when I read that. Like what is the tax rate for a child... NICE. Buy in small parts and avoid paying any tax on the kids at all.I think the first $1,000 or so of kids earnungs are free but details can be comolex. After that it tends to be at parents rate. But state tax free I beilive and 7% ain't bad regardless for risk free. It has good tax optionality too. You can pay annual or when you cash out |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 9:59:13 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's magic. Which means it's fuckery. I've been here since 2008 and we've lost our damn minds at least 3 times expecting the government to default and leave us pushing a shopping cart full of beans and Chef Boyardee down the highway while Glenn Beck's words ring in our mind. What's to stop them from just deleting shit on the fed balance sheet? It's not like it's audited. What's to stop the Fed from just buying debt to offset rate hikes? Greenspan said, on live TV, that the debt didn't matter. Just move some numbers around and it's gone. All you can expect is fuckery. Plan for the worst and hope for the least amount of "unforseen" side effects. Isn't that the truth. I lost my ass in 08, figuring the big holders of MBS and AIG would get wiped out for the bad choices..... NOPE they got handed truck loads of money and make out great, after causing the mess. Don't understatement the level of fuckery, and passing out money and forgiving the debts of cronies. The question is best coarse to not loose our ass this go around. Because I think a lot of people are going to loose there ass in the next year, and I am hopping we aren't among them. Yep I could totally see them just deleting stuff off the balance sheets. |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 10:01:43 PM EDT
[#31]
Oh your saying they will find a new special way to kick the can down to rd. Hmmm we do have the best can kickers the world has ever known....
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Posted: 1/9/2022 10:24:40 PM EDT
[#32]
Lower real rates than the stagflation era
-7%..  Attached FileAnd the -7% figure isn't even accurate, because CPI no longer uses home prices or rents to calculate the shelter component. We now use the bullshit owners equivalent rent surveys to calculate shelter inflation which grossly understates inflation. According to our current CPI, shelter inflation is only up 3% in 2021. In reality, using actual home prices (like we did in the 70's and 80's) it's up 20%. Swap out the bullshit 3% with the 20% reality and the CPI is over 12%. Fact. Interest rates need to be waaaaay higher. The FED is currently talking around 1% by the end of the year, which is laughably low. 1% is what the Fed cut rates to to stimulate the economy after the tech bubble burst. Eventually the will to control inflation will outweigh the will to provide boomers with artificial asset inflation welfare |
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Posted: 1/9/2022 10:51:30 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This whole thread seems like an advertisement for bitcoin and gold The price of gold is already starting to fall, because the price of this commodity doesn't reflect, but rather, anticipates, inflation. Bitcoin? Well that's just a crap shoot. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 12:06:53 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lower real rates than the stagflation era -7%.. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/312979/0DC19722-0840-4C28-AC15-54F9E0E6DEE3_png-2235044.JPG And the -7% figure isn't even accurate, because CPI no longer uses home prices or rents to calculate the shelter component. We now use the bullshit owners equivalent rent surveys to calculate shelter inflation which grossly understates inflation. According to our current CPI, shelter inflation is only up 3% in 2021. In reality, using actual home prices (like we did in the 70's and 80's) it's up 20%. Swap out the bullshit 3% with the 20% reality and the CPI is over 12%. Fact. Interest rates need to be waaaaay higher. The FED is currently talking around 1% by the end of the year, which is laughably low. 1% is what the Fed cut rates to to stimulate the economy after the tech bubble burst. Eventually the will to control inflation will outweigh the will to provide boomers with artificial asset inflation welfare Very accurate which can likely lead to much more tightening than anticipated but the fed still doesnt want to admit it as they hope they can walk the tightrope. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 12:10:03 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The price of gold is already starting to fall, because the price of this commodity doesn't reflect, but rather, anticipates, inflation. Bitcoin? Well that's just a crap shoot. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: This whole thread seems like an advertisement for bitcoin and gold The price of gold is already starting to fall, because the price of this commodity doesn't reflect, but rather, anticipates, inflation. Bitcoin? Well that's just a crap shoot. Sounds right on gold, but that 1% isn't going to do shit. So the anticipation may return again after we get another selloff as people burn it to cover crashing elsewhere. Then it will head up when people realize the fed lost cobtrol. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 12:19:48 AM EDT
[#36]
This is a really good video on the topic.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmHkNiuSveo There is a part 2 to watch after that I think is even better, in it he talks about where he is invested, and what he's planing on doing depending on how things go. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 12:43:32 AM EDT
[#37]
Marginal increase, kick the can down the road so the red team has to deal with it
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Posted: 1/10/2022 12:49:56 AM EDT
[#38]
We also have to remember, as bad as things look hear with what we are talking about. Look at the number for other countries and they are worse some MUCH worse. So that shows, the can, it can take some more kicking. It all depends on if the fed is going to actually do what they say or if it will just be a token move. We are NOT in a free market, it's all how it's going to get manipulated. And btw from that other thread, Nancy P is long in the market... Buying calls.
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Posted: 1/10/2022 1:10:40 AM EDT
[#39]
Quoted: I feel like they’re backed into a corner. On one hand, the free money has made everyone rich, and too much money chasing too few goods. But if they raise rates, everyone is taking a 10-30% haircut in their assets whether it be homes or stocks. Do you actually think they’ll start in March, or keep dragging this along, and say they’re serious, and it’s going to come. You see about 6 months ago they suddenly dumped a bunch of money on every EBT and food card out there and suddenly inflation spikes harder and harder. I bought dog food today and it has gone from $38 to $54 and everything else I buy at Costco has seen a 20+ % increase. Now how will the government cut off this free money? They wont and the problem of dollars chasing goods gets worse. The options appear to be very limited without a super creative POTUS to lead us out of this. I am pretty pissed right now, I pay a shit load of taxes, get nothing for my hard work and giving everyone a chance to destroy the economy that people like us built. The leeches cannot continue. ETA: Do you know what the EBT FSA is buying? Hint: It is not canned goods. They are buying Steak, Premium Goods, Brisket, Ribs, Scallops - I shit you not. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 2:01:35 AM EDT
[#40]
Quoted: On one hand, the free money has made everyone rich, and too much money chasing too few goods. But if they raise rates, everyone is taking a 10-30% haircut in their assets whether it be homes or stocks. My personal opinion is a 10-30% reduction in the real estate market and stock market would be healthy as it would move it closer to market value. Right now they are highly inflated due to government manipulation. Currently the haircut most people are feeling is the haircut they are taking due to the drastic price increases on fuel and goods. That is the only reason the Fed is considering a rate hike is because of this. However with so much debt based liquidity being injected in the system, even a modest rate hike will cause a substantial downturn. My uneducated armchair amateur opinion is that they will do a few modest rate hikes (think .25%) to say "hey we're taking steps to fight inflation" and it be a catalyst for a deep recession. Recent monetary policy has ramped up the fallacy of a debt based monetary system. What concerns me is there really is no good way to insulate yourself from the pain that's coming. All things considered this would be a goldbug's wet dream. But by and large precious metals haven't been shown to be the inflation hedge that they were trumpeted to be. In fact by and large crytos ate their lunch. And i don't suggest throwing all your money at either since in most places you can't pay your mortgage, rent, gas, or groceries with either crypto or metals. Maybe I'm nuts but it seems like the best investment is means of production. With the shortages, inflation, and coming crash it sure seems if you can't grow it or make it yourself, you aren't going to have it. I would say plan accordingly |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 2:07:32 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: THANK YOU for that. I didn't even think of that, shows how much I know... I am digging into it a little right now. I may be buying some of those. Near as I can tell. After one year I can cash it out, so not totally trapped. And from year 1-5 I lose 3 months int for early withdraw penalty. But shit those rates (even with a 3 month loss of int) still beat anything else out there right now for a CD like product. BUT the thing is, if there is a big market correction, I would like to be able to move in and snap some things up that are on sale.... and don't want locked in for one year. BUT this is a limited about, and a good way to diversify some cash so probably going to buy some. Thanks again. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I like I bonds from treasury direct.gov right now paying 7% and you can get 10k per year per family member. Its a good safe place otherwise I'd shift out of unrealistic bullshit. I like some commodity for inflation hedge, consumer staples, telecom, and energy, they will suffer too but not like meme stocks will. As for buying a home some markets are still semi affordable others I'd just avoid. THANK YOU for that. I didn't even think of that, shows how much I know... I am digging into it a little right now. I may be buying some of those. Near as I can tell. After one year I can cash it out, so not totally trapped. And from year 1-5 I lose 3 months int for early withdraw penalty. But shit those rates (even with a 3 month loss of int) still beat anything else out there right now for a CD like product. BUT the thing is, if there is a big market correction, I would like to be able to move in and snap some things up that are on sale.... and don't want locked in for one year. BUT this is a limited about, and a good way to diversify some cash so probably going to buy some. Thanks again. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 2:21:19 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All that free money has made very few rich, and most of the people getting the stimulus checks and child tax credit advances already spent it and not on homes or stocks. And aside from a few politicians and the politically connected the "infrastructure" spending will do little to boost the average Americans income. My personal opinion is a 10-30% reduction in the real estate market and stock market would be healthy as it would move it closer to market value. Right now they are highly inflated due to government manipulation. Currently the haircut most people are feeling is the haircut they are taking due to the drastic price increases on fuel and goods. That is the only reason the Fed is considering a rate hike is because of this. However with so much debt based liquidity being injected in the system, even a modest rate hike will cause a substantial downturn. My uneducated armchair amateur opinion is that they will do a few modest rate hikes (think .25%) to say "hey we're taking steps to fight inflation" and it be a catalyst for a deep recession. Recent monetary policy has ramped up the fallacy of a debt based monetary system. What concerns me is there really is no good way to insulate yourself from the pain that's coming. All things considered this would be a goldbug's wet dream. But by and large precious metals haven't been shown to be the inflation hedge that they were trumpeted to be. In fact by and large crytos ate their lunch. And i don't suggest throwing all your money at either since in most places you can't pay your mortgage, rent, gas, or groceries with either crypto or metals. Maybe I'm nuts but it seems like the best investment is means of production. With the shortages, inflation, and coming crash it sure seems if you can't grow it or make it yourself, you aren't going to have it. I would say plan accordingly I think you understand the situation far better than most, and yep..... I also agree most things right now need a 30% correction to be healthy, and I think that would happen in a hart beat, I think it would be closer to 40% personally. But I am scared they (the fed) doesn't have the stones for that, and there friends in the big banks would loose some money, and they can't have that. Sooooo... savers and the little guy will get tossed under the buss. My other thought is, they might just do it, and let everything take a 30-40% hit, to slow inflation, if they think it will kill crypto and remove that possible competition to the fed system. We have came up with a few ways to protect some money in this thread. 10k in those Treasury Direct I bonds at 7% is something I was sure glad to learn about, and learned about it from this thread. So side question. We covered some places to move some money. What about everyone with 401k's and what could one do to help protect that? Most plans are just target date funds, bond funds, or market index funds. To me all 3 of those are NOT the place to be if there is a correction. Mine had a choice for a T bill but NOT really T bills option, it's a insurance instrument to mimic t bills. I jumped to that at the end of the year. Right now I am just sorta waiting to see what that first rate hike is, and if they really go to 0 on the taper and if they start to sell anything off there balance sheet. Or if it's all BS, if BS I am jumping back in, to ride the bull. To me that's the tell, and we won't know till they do it or not. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 2:27:30 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think you understand the situation far better than most, and yep..... I also agree most things right now need a 30% correction to be healthy, and I think that would happen in a hart beat, I think it would be closer to 40% personally. But I am scared they (the fed) doesn't have the stones for that, and there friends in the big banks would loose some money, and they can't have that. Sooooo... savers and the little guy will get tossed under the buss. My other thought is, they might just do it, and let everything take a 30-40% hit, to slow inflation, if they think it will kill crypto and remove that possible competition to the fed system. We have came up with a few ways to protect some money in this thread. 10k in those Treasury Direct I bonds at 7% is something I was sure glad to learn about, and learned about it from this thread. So side question. We covered some places to move some money. What about everyone with 401k's and what could one do to help protect that? Most plans are just target date funds, bond funds, or market index funds. To me all 3 of those are NOT the place to be if there is a correction. Mine had a choice for a T bill but NOT really T bills option, it's a insurance instrument to mimic t bills. I jumped to that at the end of the year. Right now I am just sorta waiting to see what that first rate hike is, and if they really go to 0 on the taper and if they start to sell anything off there balance sheet. Or if it's all BS, if BS I am jumping back in, to ride the bull. To me that's the tell, and we won't know till they do it or not. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: All that free money has made very few rich, and most of the people getting the stimulus checks and child tax credit advances already spent it and not on homes or stocks. And aside from a few politicians and the politically connected the "infrastructure" spending will do little to boost the average Americans income. My personal opinion is a 10-30% reduction in the real estate market and stock market would be healthy as it would move it closer to market value. Right now they are highly inflated due to government manipulation. Currently the haircut most people are feeling is the haircut they are taking due to the drastic price increases on fuel and goods. That is the only reason the Fed is considering a rate hike is because of this. However with so much debt based liquidity being injected in the system, even a modest rate hike will cause a substantial downturn. My uneducated armchair amateur opinion is that they will do a few modest rate hikes (think .25%) to say "hey we're taking steps to fight inflation" and it be a catalyst for a deep recession. Recent monetary policy has ramped up the fallacy of a debt based monetary system. What concerns me is there really is no good way to insulate yourself from the pain that's coming. All things considered this would be a goldbug's wet dream. But by and large precious metals haven't been shown to be the inflation hedge that they were trumpeted to be. In fact by and large crytos ate their lunch. And i don't suggest throwing all your money at either since in most places you can't pay your mortgage, rent, gas, or groceries with either crypto or metals. Maybe I'm nuts but it seems like the best investment is means of production. With the shortages, inflation, and coming crash it sure seems if you can't grow it or make it yourself, you aren't going to have it. I would say plan accordingly I think you understand the situation far better than most, and yep..... I also agree most things right now need a 30% correction to be healthy, and I think that would happen in a hart beat, I think it would be closer to 40% personally. But I am scared they (the fed) doesn't have the stones for that, and there friends in the big banks would loose some money, and they can't have that. Sooooo... savers and the little guy will get tossed under the buss. My other thought is, they might just do it, and let everything take a 30-40% hit, to slow inflation, if they think it will kill crypto and remove that possible competition to the fed system. We have came up with a few ways to protect some money in this thread. 10k in those Treasury Direct I bonds at 7% is something I was sure glad to learn about, and learned about it from this thread. So side question. We covered some places to move some money. What about everyone with 401k's and what could one do to help protect that? Most plans are just target date funds, bond funds, or market index funds. To me all 3 of those are NOT the place to be if there is a correction. Mine had a choice for a T bill but NOT really T bills option, it's a insurance instrument to mimic t bills. I jumped to that at the end of the year. Right now I am just sorta waiting to see what that first rate hike is, and if they really go to 0 on the taper and if they start to sell anything off there balance sheet. Or if it's all BS, if BS I am jumping back in, to ride the bull. To me that's the tell, and we won't know till they do it or not. Is there a good way to follow exactly what the fed is going to do or announce ? What is the best way to keep an eye on that stuff and know as soon as possible as it changes things very fast like the drop last Wednesday. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 2:32:29 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Is there a good way to follow exactly what the fed is going to do or announce ? What is the best way to keep an eye on that stuff and know as soon as possible as it changes things very fast like the drop last Wednesday. Great question. I just follow new youtube videos that come out. Seems at the end of every day something important happens someone posts a video talking about it. BUT it's sorta a crap shoot and take a lot of time to sort though a lot of needlessly long videos to glean nuggets of info. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 2:36:41 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Great question. I just follow new youtube videos that come out. Seems at the end of every day something important happens someone posts a video talking about it. BUT it's sorta a crap shoot and take a lot of time to sort though a lot of needlessly long videos to glean nuggets of info. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Is there a good way to follow exactly what the fed is going to do or announce ? What is the best way to keep an eye on that stuff and know as soon as possible as it changes things very fast like the drop last Wednesday. Great question. I just follow new youtube videos that come out. Seems at the end of every day something important happens someone posts a video talking about it. BUT it's sorta a crap shoot and take a lot of time to sort though a lot of needlessly long videos to glean nuggets of info. Yeah by then its too late. If you are considering making moves based on their actions. Like the immediate drop that happened last wednesday after the fed minutes were released. I didn't know that was supposed to happen. I'm wondering how to keep a better eye on that sort of thing. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 2:57:21 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: #onthespideytrain i bought shitton in 2020 when the fat puffy puss spider ranted in early 2020. made out like a bandit. sadly the s&p is the only place to park rn. #ratesoutbullsout I didn't understand the #onthespideytrain and #ratesoutbullsout are you asking my personal numbers? Or number of people in this thread that have rode to spidey train this last year. I know a lot of guys on hear are probably a lot bigger than me. I am a small fish, and I am mostly in RE and not yet willing to jump out of that. My numbers if that was your question. I ended the year with just over 240k in the stock market, last year my personal rate of return in the market was just over 17%. I know it may not be much or that good to hard core stock guys. But it's a lot for me, and to me it's a great rate of return. I am happy with the last year. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 3:02:42 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yeah by then its too late. If you are considering making moves based on their actions. Like the immediate drop that happened last wednesday after the fed minutes were released. I didn't know that was supposed to happen. I'm wondering how to keep a better eye on that sort of thing. That's why I am setting on the sidelines right now (and it's KILLING me with inflation). I don't think we will know till the BIG fall happens and then it's to late. I think it starts moving from insiders before anyone on the outside even knows. And with high frequency traders and the way things work now, you can have a crash in a flash. That's what I am scared of. Well we have all talk about the reasons.... edit for spelling |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 3:14:01 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lower real rates than the stagflation era -7%.. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/312979/0DC19722-0840-4C28-AC15-54F9E0E6DEE3_png-2235044.JPG And the -7% figure isn't even accurate, because CPI no longer uses home prices or rents to calculate the shelter component. We now use the bullshit owners equivalent rent surveys to calculate shelter inflation which grossly understates inflation. According to our current CPI, shelter inflation is only up 3% in 2021. In reality, using actual home prices (like we did in the 70's and 80's) it's up 20%. Swap out the bullshit 3% with the 20% reality and the CPI is over 12%. Fact. Interest rates need to be waaaaay higher. The FED is currently talking around 1% by the end of the year, which is laughably low. 1% is what the Fed cut rates to to stimulate the economy after the tech bubble burst. Eventually the will to control inflation will outweigh the will to provide boomers with artificial asset inflation welfare My boomer assets get inflated either way JR. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 3:27:22 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think you understand the situation far better than most, and yep..... I also agree most things right now need a 30% correction to be healthy, and I think that would happen in a hart beat, I think it would be closer to 40% personally. But I am scared they (the fed) doesn't have the stones for that, and there friends in the big banks would loose some money, and they can't have that. Sooooo... savers and the little guy will get tossed under the buss. My other thought is, they might just do it, and let everything take a 30-40% hit, to slow inflation, if they think it will kill crypto and remove that possible competition to the fed system. We have came up with a few ways to protect some money in this thread. 10k in those Treasury Direct I bonds at 7% is something I was sure glad to learn about, and learned about it from this thread. So side question. We covered some places to move some money. What about everyone with 401k's and what could one do to help protect that? Most plans are just target date funds, bond funds, or market index funds. To me all 3 of those are NOT the place to be if there is a correction. Mine had a choice for a T bill but NOT really T bills option, it's a insurance instrument to mimic t bills. I jumped to that at the end of the year. Right now I am just sorta waiting to see what that first rate hike is, and if they really go to 0 on the taper and if they start to sell anything off there balance sheet. Or if it's all BS, if BS I am jumping back in, to ride the bull. To me that's the tell, and we won't know till they do it or not. Wife and I are supposed to retire this year . We spent the afternoon looking at What options we have with our 401ks and frankly it dont look very good. Since we have to move your money within their options choices are limited . Either put it in something semi secure that wont make money or risk it with everyone else . The latter seems like a bad choice for someone about to retire. I've also got a house to sell this summer so i hope higher rates wait for awhile. |
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Posted: 1/10/2022 3:35:51 AM EDT
[#50]
So I'm supposed to move the 401K out of stocks and into bonds....
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